Fukushima- the aftermath

The japanese power consumption has significantly decreased to adapt to a fading nuclear activity Enerdata- Energy Efficicency and Demand

Nuclear power accounted for 27% of total production in 2010

Coal and gas have the same market share as nuclear; these 3 sources account for 80% of power generation
2010
Hydro-electricity 8%
Natural gas 27%

Thermal 65% Nuclear 27%

Oil 9% Coal, lignite 27% Non conv. Energy 2%

Source: Enerdata
Fukushima-the aftermath 2

The power generation from nuclear has considerably reduced since Fukushima, with only 11% of reactors in operation in December 2011
Nuclear power plants in Japan in 2011
50 40
power plants

Post Fukushima

30 20 10 0 July September May February January

Over the 54 nuclear power plants 33 were in operation in January 2011 (22 in maintenance). After Fukushimas earthquake, 6 reactors shut down in March, and 8 others were closed in April/Mayv2011. Power plants closed for routine maintenance are not allowed to restart. At the end of 2011, only 6 plants were in operation.

August

March

June

November

In operation

Shut down

Maintenance

Source: IEEJ
Fukushima-the aftermath 3

December

October

April

 Resulting in a decrease in the total power production by 5% in 2011

Decline of nuclear (-43%) and increase in thermal production (+18%)
Nuclear power production
25

Total power production

NUCLEAR
800

HYDRO

THERMAL

20 700 15
TWh

600 500
TWh

58% 72%

10

400 300

8% 34% 8% 20%
2010 2011

2010
0

2011

200

January February March April May June July August September October November December

100
0

Source: EDMC, 10 Electric power CompaniesTotal

Fukushima-the aftermath 4

Stringent measures were implemented in summer 2011 to adapt demand to a lower supply
In July 2011, to overcome the summer peak period of power demand in Japan, the government implemented a plan which demanded a 15% reduction in usage for all electricity consumers. Restrictions on electricity use at peak times were imposed, by law, on large electricity users in the service areas of Tohoku EPCO and TEPCO, the two power companies operating in the areas hit by the earthquake . Large electricity users were required to voluntarily formulate and implement plans for reducing their power consumption during peak times (100,000 plans implemented). And Article 27 of the Electricity Business Act, "Restriction on Use of Electricity," was enacted to secure the effectiveness of demand suppression and fairness among electricity users. For small electricity users, METI, the Ministry, presented examples of electricity-saving measures related to lighting, AC, etc. and encouraged consumers to formulate and implement voluntary energy-saving action plans to achieve the target.

Fukushima-the aftermath

These measures had a very significant impact on power consumption

Power Demand
90

Total power consumption decreased by 4.7% in 2011 compared to 2010

2011

2010
85

80 TWh

Up to -11.5% decrease in August compared to 2010, month corresponding to a peak in demand due to air conditioning

75

70

Positive impact of Electricity supply-demand measures in summer time

65

Post Fukushima
60 January June November

Source: EDMC, 10 Electric power CompaniesTotal

Fukushima-the aftermath 6

This reduction was effective in all sectors, in particular in residential and commercial, where it was a voluntary action
2010
TWh 30 20
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

2011

Residential sector: Average decrease of 4% in 2011 Voluntary decrease of households consumption during summer in particular : -15% in August /September 2011 Commercial sector: Average decrease of 8% in 2011 Important decrease since Fukushima (up to -15% during August/September)

TWh

18

13
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

30 TWh

25
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12

Industry sector: Average decrease of 3% in 2011 Relative impact of the plan implemented in summer 2011 (-6% in August/September)

Source: EDMC, 10 Electric power CompaniesTotal

Fukushima-the aftermath 7

Will consumers further reduce further their power consumption in the near future?
Following summer plan, and without significant price increase, consumers changed their electricity consumption behaviors. However it must be noticed that summer 2011 was less warm compared to 2010 (15% of cooling degree days), as AC represents up to 50% of final consumption during summer, the consumption reduction climate corrected is thus less important (~7.5%) In November 2011, Japan government published the Electricity supplydemand measures in winter time to overcome peak demand caused by space heating Will consumers adapt their consumption such as during last summer 2011? Japanese government plans to shut down all nuclear power plants in the next few months. TEPCO has unveiled plans to raise electricity prices for the first time in more than 30 years. Will consumers further reduce their power consumption in 2012?
Fukushima-the aftermath 8

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