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  • Bank FX and Capital Flows End May 2014 PDF

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    Shaun Salas
    545 tayangan8 halaman
    1) Chinese banks had to purchase around $63 billion of foreign currency by early June to meet new capital flow regulations, down from an estimated $90 billion in March. 2) In May, foreign currency loans increased by $5.8 billion while foreign currency deposits fell by $2.3 billion, raising banks' foreign currency loan-to-deposit ratio. 3) Chinese banks sold $151 billion of foreign currency on behalf of clients and bought $133 billion in May, lowering their net short foreign currency position to $17.4 billion.

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    1) Chinese banks had to purchase around $63 billion of foreign currency by early June to meet new capital flow regulations, down from an estimated $90 billion in March. 2) In May, foreign currency loans increased by $5.8 billion while foreign currency deposits fell by $2.3 billion, raising banks' foreign currency loan-to-deposit ratio. 3) Chinese banks sold $151 billion of foreign currency on behalf of clients and bought $133 billion in May, lowering their net short foreign currency position to $17.4 billion.

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    545 tayangan8 halaman

    Bank FX and Capital Flows End May 2014 PDF

    Diunggah oleh

    Shaun Salas
    1) Chinese banks had to purchase around $63 billion of foreign currency by early June to meet new capital flow regulations, down from an estimated $90 billion in March. 2) In May, foreign currency loans increased by $5.8 billion while foreign currency deposits fell by $2.3 billion, raising banks' foreign currency loan-to-deposit ratio. 3) Chinese banks sold $151 billion of foreign currency on behalf of clients and bought $133 billion in May, lowering their net short foreign currency position to $17.4 billion.

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    Chinese bank FX positions: May update

    This somewhat obscure report has come to broader notice as a result of the recent measures focussed on capital flows in various forms. With data up to March, we estimated that around $US90bn of foreign currency would have to be purchased by the Chinese banking system to meet the new regulations by July 1. We lowered that estimate by $US9bn or so after the April data, implying there was still plenty of work to do at the outset of May. With May data now available, we can definitively say that at the beginning of June there was still a major task ahead of the banking system about $US63bn the sudden urgency of which has been reflected in the disruptive pricing moves in interbank rates and in the FX market. The details are that FX loans increased by $US5.8bn in May while FX deposits fell by $US2.3bn. Excluding the policy banks, the FX specific loan to deposit ratio rose by 1.6ppts. Banks sold $US151bn of FX on behalf of clients and bought $US133bn. The net short position of $17.4bn is down from $US34bn in April, $US45bn in March and $US93bn in January. Gross flows recovered from April levels, and are now up by 7%yr.
    1

    FX reserves, capital flows & bank FX positions


    120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 Jan-10
    USDbn USDbn
    Sources: CEIC, Westpac

    Other FDI inflow Trade balance Change in FX reserves Net bank FX settlement

    120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100

    Jul-10

    Jan-11

    Jul-11

    Jan-12

    Jul-12

    Jan-13

    Bank FX activity on behalf of clients


    200
    150 USDbn
    Sources: CEIC, Westpac

    USDbn

    200
    150

    100
    50 0 -50 -100 -150 FX sales FX purchases Net Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13

    100
    50 0 -50 -100 -150 -200

    -200 Jan-10

    Bank FX sales for clients by BOP category


    180
    160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 USDbn
    Portfolio & other transaction FDI transaction Current acct transaction Net bank FX settlement

    USDbn
    Sources: CEIC, Westpac

    180
    160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0

    Foreign exchange loan to deposit ratio


    800 700 600
    500 400 300 200 100 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09 Jan-11 Jan-13 USDbn
    FX Ratio L2D (rhs) Deposits (lhs) Loans (lhs)
    FX L2D adjusted for policy banks
    Sources: CEIC, Westpac

    Ratio*100

    225
    200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0

    Onshore L2D ratio

    Foreign exchange loan to deposit ratio


    225
    200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25
    Sources: CEIC, Westpac

    Ratio*100 FX L2D including policy banks FX L2D excluding policy banks

    Ratio*100

    225
    200 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 0

    0 Jan-03

    Jan-05

    Jan-07

    Jan-09

    Jan-11

    Jan-13

    7-day SHIBOR & the CNY 12mth NDF


    2.5 %chg
    Sources: Westpac Economics, CEIC.

    %pa CNY NDF 12mth (lhs) 1 week SHIBOR (rhs)

    7
    6

    2.0

    1.5

    5 4

    1.0 3 0.5 Sep-12 2 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13

    USD/CNY NDF curves


    15 bps
    12mth minus 3mth 12mth minus 6mth 12mth minus 1mth

    bps

    15

    10
    5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20

    10
    5 0
    Fundamentally, should move back towards negative territory, but SAFE ruling pushes the other way.

    -5 -10 -15 -20

    Sources: Westpac, Bloomberg

    -25
    Jan 10 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13

    -25

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