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Indian Geotechnical Conference 2010, GEOtrendz December 1618, 2010 IGS Mumbai Chapter & IIT Bombay

Seismic Hazard Map for the State of Karnataka with Local Site Effects: Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis
Sitharam, T.G.
Professor e-mail: sitharam@civil.iisc.ernet.in

James, Naveen
Research Scholar e-mail: naveenj@civil.iisc.ernet.in

Vipin, K.S.
Research Associate e-mail: vipin@civil.iisc.ernet.in

Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore

ABSTRACT
This paper presents a deterministic seismic hazard analysis for the entire state of Karnataka using logic tree approach considering different attenuation relations. Geographically Karnataka forms part of Peninsular India which is tectonically identified as an intraplate region of Indian plate. Due to the convergent movement (at 5cm/ year) of Indian plate with Eurasian plate, movements are occurring along major intraplate faults resulting the seismic activity of the region and so its hazard assessment is very important. For deterministic hazard analysis, two types of seismic sources linear and smoothed point sources within a radius of 300 km from the boundary of Karnataka were considered and the peak ground acceleration (PGA) at rock level was evaluated for the entire state considering a grid size of 0.05 x 0.05. The attenuation relations proposed by Raghukanth and Iyengar (2007), Atkinson and Boore (2006) and Toro et.al, (1997) were used in the analysis. Response spectra at rock level for important Tier II cities and Bangalore in Karnataka were evaluated. Local site effects were studied and the PGA values at ground level were estimated for different NEHRP site classes ranging from A to D. The contour maps showing the spatial variation of PGA values are also presented for all the different site classes in this paper. 1. INTRODUCTION Karnataka is a state in the southern part of India located between 740 6 E and 780 35 E longitude and 110 37 N and 180 28 N latitude. The state covers an area of 1,91,791 km, 5.83% of the total geographical area of India. As per BIS1893 (2002), the state of Karnataka lies in Zones II and III which is based on geology and the past seismic activity and not based on PHA values. There are about 1668 seismic events recorded in the study area and out of which 553 events are above magnitude 4 and 5 are above 6. Major earthquakes in the region and close by include Bellary of Mw 5.7 in 1843, Coimbatore of 6.0 Mw in 1900, Koyna of Mw 6.1 in 1967, Hassan of Mw 5.6 in 1970 and Latur of Mw 6.1 in 1993. Thus the estimation of seismic hazards throughout the Karnataka state is very important. 2. SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS Seismic hazards for a place can be estimated using two methodologies; they are Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) and Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA). The DSHA considers just one (or sometimes a few) maximum magnitude-distance scenario. Source magnitude for each source is chosen from the maximum reported past earthquake close to that source and shortest distance from each source to the site is considered for the analysis. In this paper deterministic hazard analysis for the state of Karnataka is presented. Major prominent studies which tried to evaluate the seismic hazard of the south Indian region deterministically were the studies of Vipin et al. (2009) and Parvez et al. (2003) and Vipin (2010). Hazard assessment and microzonation of Bangalore city was done by Anbazhagan (2007). DSHA includes following steps; 1) identification of source 2) selection of attenuation relation 3) fitting a logic tree structure 4) evaluation of hazard. The influence of topography and properties of overburden soil on the characteristics of ground motion at bed rock is termed as local site effect. In this paper, hazard evaluation at ground level was carried out for the state of Karnataka using non linear site amplification technique by assuming the soil above bed rock of the whole region belonging to site classes A to D, as per NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazard Research Programme, BSSC 2003) and IBC (International Building Code) recommendation. Identification and Characterization of Sources Earthquake sources within a radius of 300 km from the boundary of Karnataka were considered. DSHA was done with two types of seismic sources linear and point sources. Major intraplate faults which are delineated in Seismotectonic Atlas of India known as SEISAT (2000)

200 published by Geological Survey of India (GSI) is used for hazard assessment. Earthquake events reported by national and International agencies were used for the analysis. These events were then declustered and anomalies like repetitive events, foreshocks, aftershocks in the resulting data base were removed (Vipin et al. 2009). There are about 1668 seismic events obtained in the study area after declustring. Selection of Attenuation Relationships Three attenuation relations were selected for the prediction of PHA and Sa values in this study. Out of these three, the relation suggested by Raghu Kanth and Iyengar (2007) was developed for the Peninsular Indian region and this was given the highest weightage. The relation suggested by Atkinson and Boore (2006) has been developed by considering a very large database of events recorded on rock site and this was given an intermediate weightage and the relation suggested by Toro et al. (1997), which is also a widely accepted attenuation relation for stable continental shield region, was given least weightage. Fitting the Logic Tree Structure Bommer et al. (2005) clearly states the advantages of using the logic tree approach in DSHA. The epistemic uncertainty can be addressed in a better way using the logic tree approach in DSHA. In the present study the epistemic uncertainties in source model and attenuation relation have been addressed using a logic tree approach. Logic tree consists of a series of nodes and several models can be assigned to each node as different branches with different weightages. Allotment of these weightages to different branch is subjective and depends upon the degree of uncertainties in the model, and its accuracy. Evaluation of Seismic Hazard A MATLAB program was written (Vipin, 2010) to compute hazard parameter like PHA and Sa for entire Karnataka state. The algorithm for the above program is mentioned below. (1) Discretization of study are in to grids of size 0.05 0.05 (5 km 5km) (2) The minimum distance from the selected grid point to each of the sources (faults) is calculated. For both the linear and point sources, the focal depth was taken as 15 km as per Sitharam et al. (2006) and Anbazhagan et al. (2009). (3) For the given grid point, the PHA and Sa values (mean values) due to each of the source was calculated based on the minimum distance value and maximum magnitude assigned to each of these sources. These values from each attenuation relations and then these values were multiplied with the corresponding weightage factors and they were added together to get the PHA and Sa values. (4) The maximum of these acceleration values will be the PHA and Sa value for that particular grid cell due to the linear sources.

T.G. Sitharam, Naveen James and K.S. Vipin

(5) Similar analysis was done for the smoothed point source for the same grid point and the PHA and Sa (mean value) were obtained. (6) The values obtained from the analysis for linear and smoothed sources were multiplied with the given weightage factors (0.5 each for the linear and point sources) and then they were added to get the final PHA and Sa value for that particular grid point. (7) Similar analysis was done for all the grid points and the PHA and Sa values were obtained. (8) The response spectra values (Sa) are calculated for 8 different periods of oscillations, viz. 0.0 sec; 0.03 sec; 0.04 sec; 0.1 sec; 0.2 sec; 0.4 sec; 1.0 sec and 2.0 sec and were plotted to obtain the response spectrum. 3. RESULTS The spectral acceleration values at rock level were obtained for all the grid points using the DSHA method described above. The response spectra for some of the important cities in Karnataka are presented here. The exact location of these cities at which these values were developed are shown in table 1.
Table 1: Cities with Their Locations and Corresponding PGA Mean Major cities Location PGA Longitude(oE) Latitude(oN) value (g)

Bangalore Belgaum Bellary Gulbarga Hubli Kaiga Mangalore Mysore

at rock level is presented in Fig. 2.

77.59 74.5 76.92 76.83 75.13 74.43 74.84 76.64

12.979 15.85 15.14 17.33 15.34 14.85 12.87 12.3

0.1795 0.0625 0.109 0.0805 0.054 0.031 0.114 0.1625

Fig. 1: Spatial Variation of PGA Values from DSHA

Seismic Hazard Map for the State of Karnataka with Local Site Effects: Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis

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Spatial variation of mean PGA value at rock level in the Karnataka state is shown in the Fig. 1. Response spectra for 7 major cities and Kaiga site, where Nuclear Reactor plant is located, at rock level is presented in Fig. 2.

Where Fs is the amplification factor, ys is the spectral acceleration at the ground surface for a given site class. Fig 3, 4, 5 and 6 show schematically the variation of PGA at surface level for various site classes, for entire Karnataka state.

Fig. 2: Response Spectra for Important Cities in Karnataka

Local Site Effects When earthquake waves propagates from one medium to other, its properties like frequency, amplitude, duration etc are affected, which is known as Local site effect. While evaluating the hazard values for a vast area like Karnataka state, PGA values for the entire study area for different site classes was evaluated based on nonlinear site amplification techniques. This was done by assuming soil above bed rock of the whole region belonging to any one site classes as per NEHRP site classification. The ground motion at surface level for each site is obtained by multiplying suitable amplification factor suggested for peninsular India by Raghu Kanth and Iyengar (2007), to the bedrock motion as given in equation 1 (1) ln Fs = a1 ybr + a2 + ln s Where a1 and a2 are regression coefficients given in table 3, ybr is the spectral acceleration at bed rock level and s is the error term.
Table 3: Values for Regression Coefficients and the Error Term for Various Site Classes

Fig. 3: Spatial Variation of PGA Values for Site Class A

Fig. 4: Spatial Variation of PGA Values for Site Class B

Site class A B C D

a1 0.00 0.00 0.89 2.61

a2 0.36 0.49 0.66 0.80

ln s 0.03 0.08 0.23 0.36

The value of spectral acceleration for different site classes can be obtained from equation 2: ys = ybr Fs (2)

Fig. 5: Spatial Variation of PGA Values for Site Class C

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T.G. Sitharam, Naveen James and K.S. Vipin

Fig. 6: Spatial Variation of PGA Values for Site Class D

4. CONCLUSIONS Spatial variation of PGA values is schematically shown in this paper. Maximum PGA value obtained is more 0.3g in Bidar district. Places like Bhalki and surrounding regions have a PGA value as high as 0.4g. This large value of hazard is due to the proximity of active Latur fault, which has produced a 6 magnitude earthquake in 1993. Significant hazard values of 0.2g to 0.3g are also seen at places near to Mangalore Udipi region. Response spectra for 7 major cities of Karnataka state and Kaiga, site for nuclear reactor is presented in this paper. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Authors thank CiSTUP and STC, (ISRO-IISc joint initiative) Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, India for funding the project titled Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment of Karnataka State (Ref. No. CIST 017 dated 1 January 2010). REFERRENCES Anbazhagan P (2007). Site Characterization and Seismic Hazard Analysis with Local Site Effects for Microzonation of Bangalore PhD Thesis, IISc Bangalore. Anbazhagan, P., Vinod, J.S. and Sitharam, T.G. (2009). Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for Bangalore. Journal of Natural Hazards, 48, 145 - 166.

Atkinson, G.M. and Boore, D.M. (2006). Earthquake Ground-Motion prediction equations for Eastern North America. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(6), 2181 - 2205. BIS-1893 (2002). Indian Standard criteria for earthquake resistant design of structures, Part 1 - General provisions and buildings. Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi. Bommer, J.J., Scherbaum, F., Bungum, H., Cotton, F., Sabetta, F. and Abrahamson, N.A. (2005). On the use of logic trees for ground-motionprediction equations in seismic hazard analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 95, 377 389 BSSC (2003). NEHRP recommended provisions for seismic regulations for new buildings and other structures (FEMA 450), Part 1: Provisions, Building Seismic Safety Council for the Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington, D.C., USA. IBC (2009). International Building Code. International Code Council, Washington. Parvez, I.A., Vaccari, F. and Panza, G.F. (2003). A deterministic seismic hazard map of India and adjacent areas. Geophysics Journal International, 155, 489 508 Raghu Kanth, S.T.G. and Iyengar, R.N. (2007). Estimation of seismic spectral acceleration in Peninsular India. Journal of Earth System Sciences, 116(3), 199 214 SEISAT (2000). Seismotectonic Atlas of India. Geological Survey of India, New Delhi Sitharam T. G, Anbazhagan P and Ganesha Raj K., 2006: Use of remote sensing and seismotectonic parameters for seismic hazard analysis of Bangalore Natural Hazards Earth System Science, 6, 927939. Toro, G.N., Abrahamson, N. and Schneider, J. (1997). Model of strong ground motions from earthquakes in central and eastern North America: Best estimates and uncertainties. Seismological Research Letters, 68, 41 - 57. Vipin K. S, Anbazhagan P and Sitharam T. G (2009). Estimation of peak ground acceleration and spectral acceleration for South India with local site effects: probabilistic approach. Natural Hazards Earth System Science., 9, 865878, 2009. Vipin K.S (2010). Assessment of Seismic Hazard with Local Site Effects: Deterministic and Probabilistic Approaches PhD Thesis, IISc Bangalore.