S a y

P e a c e

F i r s t

CS Center
C o n f l i c t
Situation Update 23

S t u d y

C e n t e r
January 22, 2007

PO Box 11374, Share Market Complex, Putalisadak, Kathmandu, Nepal Tel: +977-1-6218777 Email: cscenter.nepal@gmail.com; cscenter@wlink.com.np

Nepals Parliamentary Inclusion: Not a Reality Yet

The incumbent House proclaimed the Interim Constitution (IC) on Jan 15, 2007. It stands in contrast to all previous constitutions which were proclaimed by Kings, ending the 11-year armed conflict and opening the door for the CPN (Maoist) to enter the Interim Parliament. According to a Nepali proverb a river returns to its original path after 12 years. The nine parliamentarians who left the parliament to wage the armed struggle have returned with 83 parliamentarians. The efforts of the democratic parties and peace forces to mainstream the Maoists and their decision to participate in democratic competition have been results-oriented. In fact, the armed rebellion begun in the 20th century and ended peacefully in the 21st has become a new model in global politics, demonstrating the efficacy of talks, consensus and co-action as a means to resolve conflict. All the political parties are committed to its success. The inclusion of the Maoists in the political process represents a tremendous achievement. The peace process of Nepal could be divided into five phases: Realization of Importance of Talks (setting up of the Seven Party Alliance and readiness of both the sides); Signing of Political Agreement and Comprehensive Peace Accord (CPA); Proclamation and Ratification of IC and Formation of Interim Parliament (IP); Free and Fair Constituent Assembly (CA) Elections; and Adoption of New Constitution from CA. Two stages have been completed and we are in the third. Numerous changes have occurred. The populace has relaxed, confident that it is safe to move about after long dark. The media is free to disseminate information as they see fit and people are moving freely as the security checkpoints restricting movement have been removed. There has been a decline in arbitrary arrests, detentions, kidnappings, and cruel and inhuman treatment and punishment. Internally displaced people are returning to their homes. Development work in rural areas is being initiated. The number of tourists and foreign missionaries are increasing. However, there are several challenges against the IC. The prospect of free and fair elections for the CA are in jeopardy if the following challenges are not addressed in a timely and appropriate manner:

A monarchist group, the Nepal Janatabaad Party, hurdled a petrol bomb at two public buses at Sukedhara and Basundara in Kathmandu on January 15, 2007. They wanted to halt the busses on the day after the ratification of the IC. Their supporters distributed pamphlets against the IC and recently passed citizenship bill. On January 16, 2007 MP Chitra Bahadur KC, representing the largest faction of the Peoples Front Nepal (PFN), (they have 3 out of 6 members) staged a protest at Bhadrakali, in front of Singhadarbar, demanding changes in the IC. KC told a crowd gathered on a corner that the IC provides unrestrained powers to the PM posing the threat of totalitarianism. He also criticized the Citizenship Bill that opened the possibility of citizenship certificates even to non-Nepalis. Cadres of the Madhesi Janaadhikar Forum (MJF) were arrested by police while burning copies of the IC on January 16 at Maitighar, Kathmandu. UNOHCHR in Nepal has expressed its deep concern over the arrest of 28 activists and asked the Government to respect freedom of opinion and expression. The same day MJF organized the tarai Banda (flat-land strike) demanding that the election constituencies be revised on the basis of population density and that fundamental rights for the Madhesi people be guaranteed. On the course to release their leaders and cadres, there also occurred scuffle between Maoists and the cadres of MJF at Lahan in Siraha district, 400 km to the east of Kathmandu, where a 16-year-old Ramesh Kumar Mahato was shot to death by Maoists on Jan 19. The cadres of the MJF blocked the road burning the tyres early morning to evening which crippled normal life in the entire region. Academic institutions, industries and shops were forcefully shut. Transportation is at standstill till date. Janajatis affiliated with the Nepal Federation of Indigenous Nationalities (NEFIN) and Indigenous Nationalities Joint Struggle Committee demonstrated for three hours demanding an amendment to the IC. The speakers criticized the IC for failing to address major political issues of the Nationalities, including the formation of a federal democratic republic with ethnic regional autonomy, inclusive governance, equitable representation in the CA and State Restructuration. Both the Jai Krishna Goit and the Jwala Singh factions of the Janatantric Terai Mukti Morcha (JTMM), Maoist splinter groups, have engaged in an armed insurgency in the Terai region for the last two years. Their key demands are for an independent Tarai, proportional participatory elections based on population, etc. The JTMM have been involved in extortions, abductions, coercion and killing hill-migrant people. They killed even the MP Krishna Charan Shrestha of the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP). They have spearheaded both general and traffic transportation strikes including bus burning.
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The Maoist Members of Parliament (MP) were briefed and trained by Prachanda and Dr. Bhattarai at the Bhaktapur Guest House on Jan 14, 2007. Prachanda characterized the utilization of parliament as a continuum of the revolution. He urged that their fierceness during the war be replaced by a new strategy of friendliness and cooperation to transform the negative images of the past into positive ones. He concluded that they had to good behave themselves with responsibility. Similarly, Maoist leader and MP, Matrika Yadav underscored the potential of parliament, noting that the past was witness to the fact that the gun failed to solve Nepals political problems. The Environment On Jan 15, 2007, the incumbent House was called to order at 9 am. They adjourned at 2:00 pm. The 83 Maoist MPs arrived at their Parliament Party Office (PPO) by bus at 3 pm where Hisila Yami, Maoist woman leader and wife of Dr. Bhattarai, distributed grey coats to them. The second meeting began at 3:40 pm. Prachanda and Dr. Baburam Bhattarai reached their PPO at 3:50 pm with their security. The Home Minister Krishna Prasad Sitaula received them at 4 pm and took them to PMs Chamber. The PM had responded to all the queries relating to the IC by 6:15 pm. At 6:30 pm Prachanda and Dr. Baburam Bhattarai came out of the chamber and did not see their security. Dr. Bhattarai called the PMs security for assistance and went back to their PPO. When they asked their security guards why they left they answered that the government security personnel teased them and held them outside. Subhash Nembang, the Speaker, presented the draft IC to the House for approval at 7:47 pm and the 185 MPs passed it unanimously. The MPs who had proposed for amendments did not go against the IC. He briefed about the progress of his period and read the names of 329 new MPs for IP. This is the second unanimous decision in the history of the Parliament of Nepal; the first one was long time ago to raise the facilities to the MPs. At 8:24 pm both bodies (lower and upper) of the incumbent parliament were dissolved. Sujata Koirala, the PMs daughter was the first to enter the Parliament munching the chewing gum The Maoist MPs entered the Parliament at 8:50 pm led by Krishna Bahadur Mahara. The Maoists who used to wage battles during night thus entered the Parliament for the first time at night. The media focused their attention on them, and the other MPs showered them with congratulations. All the Maoist MPs were wearing grey coat except the Madhesi and the Janajatis who wore heir traditional dress. At 9:20 pm Prachanda and Dr. Bhattarai went into the parliament and took seats at the VIP lounge. The PM entered at 9.21 pm. The Chief Secretary of the Parliament invited the eldest MP Bal Bahadur Rai, age 86, to chair the session of the IP at 9:24 and took the oath in front of the House. He administered oath of the office and secrecy to all the 328 MPs at 9.27 pm, which ended after 2.5 minutes. The Jana Morcha MPs deleted the phrase I take oath in the name of God and wrote I take oath in my own name. At 9:35 pm, the PM exited the Parliament House. The PM reentered and the first session of the Parliament was held at 11:05 where Mahara addressed the MPs stating that, the monarchy is dead and a republic has been born. The Maoist MPs said that they had fought for the people with guns in the past and were committed to continue fighting with their voices. At 11:40 pm, the IC was ratified unanimously by the IP and the session was adjourned. Membership in the Interim Parliament The Interim Parliament consists of 208 members, 193 from the incumbent lower and 15 upper (unicameral) house. There are 74 members from the NC, 73 from the UML, 42 from the NC-D, 9 from Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) and 6 from three Jana Morcha Nepal, 3 from two Nepal Sadhbhawana Party (NSP) and 1 from Nepal Majdoor Kisan Party (NMKP). A total of 12 members were exclude from participation in the IC because of their involvement in the Kings Cabinet (10 from the House of Representative (HoR), Prakash Koirala and Narayan Singh Pun from NC, Prem Bahadur Singh and Nar Bahadur Budathoki from the UML, Buddhiman Tamang, Brijesh Kumar Gupta and Lok Bahadur Thapa from the RPP, Badri Mandal and Mrigendra Singh from the NSP along with three from Rastriya Sabha (Upper House) Yangkila Shepra, Dev Narayan Chaudhary and Dr. Rup Jyoti who had been nominated for membership by the King . In the 1991 General Elections, the caste and ethnicity composition of the 205 seats of the House of Representatives was: Hill Ethnic Communities 15%, Newar 7%, Terai Communities 21%, Chhetri 19%, Bahun 38%, and others 3%. In the 1994 mid-term elections these proportions changed to: Hill Ethnic Communities 12%, Newar 6%, Terai Communities 20%, Chhetri 20%, Bahun 42%, and others 2%. In the 1999 Mid-term elections, representation was: Hill Ethnic Communities 15%, Newar 7%, Terai Communities 20%, Chhetri 20%, Bahun 38%, and others 3%. In 1991 elections, only Krishna Singh Pariyar from Constituency No. 3 of Banke district was elected to House of Representatives from among the Dalits. Of the 48 seats given to the civil society by the Comprehensive Peace Accord of Nov 21, 2006, CPN (UML) nominated two MPs from Dalit communities of its 83 seats, Chudamani Jangali BK (Kaski) and Rima Nepali (Rolpa). In addition, the Upper House MP Ram Prit Paswan (in total 4%). Jana Morcha with 9 MPs has nominated two (22%) Dalits, Anjana Bishankhe and Asharphi Sada Mushahar. NMKP and NSP both have 4 MPs and neither have nominated any Dalits. Similarly, the Left Front has 3 seats and no Dalit MPs. So, there is only one Dalit MP among the 84 seats of NC and none out of 48 of NC-D. Where is the evidence for the much-touted inclusive democracy? Former Speaker Damannath Dhungana says that parties do not want to include the civil society and their failure to provide for their representation in Parliament is evidence of this fact. Only 7 women are represented in the UML (10%), 6 in the NC (including NC-D)(5%), and one in the RPP (9%). The RPP, which had 9 seats in the former House of Representatives, did not get a single one of the 48 seats for civil society because it sided with the Monarchy.
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There are political figures and activists in only 10 of the seats alloted for civil society to the CPN (UML) including three widows of MPs (martyr families-2 killed by Maoists and one by the Government Security Force). Similarly, the NC and the NC-D nominated few political leaders and activists. Most of the Maoist MPs are young, whereas the UML representatives are middle aged and those representing the NC are elderly. The 10 new MPs of NC and CPN (UML) and 6 of NC-D are the same old ones, who have the same old thoughts, old trends and feudal mind -set. People are wondering if they had sacrificed in the Peoples Movement II to have these decadent and infamous figures in the Parliament. On the other hand, the Maoist MPs are fresh from the battlefield having strong vocal background strategically and philosophically, but their practical skills are yet to be seen. How could the mix of such evens and odds frame and build the New Nepal as dreamt by the people? According to the Political Agreement and the CPA, the CPN (Maoist) were allocated 73 seats for Party. Of these, 29 (40%) were set aside for women. The representation of Chhetri Bahun is 19 (26%) and Madhesi 20 (27%) whereas nationalities is 23 (32%) and Dalits 11 (15%). The Dalit MPs are Khadga Bahadur BK (Kalikot), Tilak Pariyar (Banke), Mahendra Pashwan (Siraha), Uma BK (Kapilbastu), Saraswoti Mahara (Dailekh), Rupa BK (Palpa), Samjhana BK (Pyuthan), Ram Ashraya Kurmi (Parsha), Nandi Sarki (Dadeldhura), Mangal BK (Surkhet), and Parshuram Ramtel (Gorakha). The Janajatis delegation consists of 7 Magars, 4 Newars, 3 Tamangs, 2 Gurungs, 2 Rais and 1 Limbu. The family members of martyrs (those killed by government forces) consist of 17 (23%) of which 11 are widows. Similarly one each from differently abled and Families of Disappeared People by State. Nine MPs belong to the Central Committee of the CPN (Maoist), whereas the 5 most senior leaders, Prachanda, Kiran Baidya, Dr. Baburam Bhattarai, Ram Bahadur Thapa and CP Gajurel did not participate. Out of the 4 Deputy Commanders, only Janardan Sharma was nominated. Maoists have no representations in 24 out of 75 districts in the country. Out of the 9 districts in Far-western Region 5 districts are not represented (Doti, Bjhang, Achham, Darchula and Bajhang). Similarly, 3 of the 15 Mid-western regions, districts are not represented (Mugu, Humla and Jumla - all from Karnali Zone out of 5 districts). In the 16 districts of Western Region, 4 districts, Parbat, Mustang, Arghakanchi and Lamjung, are not represented. In the 19 districts of Central Region, 4 (Rasuwa, Lalitpur, Ramechhap and Sarlahi) have no representation. In the 16 districts of Eastern Region, 8 (Okhaldhunga, Khotang, Solukhumbu, Sunsari, Dhankuta, Terhathum, Ilam and Panchthar) are not represented. Karnali has not received appropriate representation as required by their designation as the Seti-Karnali Autonomous Region. The other political parties have not given due attention to Karnali and its people had high hopes on Maoists that they had raised several issues regarding Karnali zone, but their expectations have shattered because it also lacked to give due consideration. They nominated 3 each from the Rolpa, Rukum and Banke (the former two being the center of Maoist origin) districts in the Mid-western region, 13 districts have 2 MPs (Baglung, Dhanusha, Kathmandu, Kailali, Tanahun, Siraha, Rauthat, Bardiya, Chitawan, Rupanndehi, Gorkha, Jhapa and Dang). The civil society representation of the Maoists covers class and professional organizations, disadvantaged, Dalit, Madhesi and women including to the nomination of former major general Army Kumar Phodung. The higher officials of Nepal Army are not pleased with his nomination for the Interim legislature as he joined the Maoists before the end of the armed insurgency. Indeed, this nomination has created suspicions within the ranks of Nepali Army about officers political alliances. Some incumbent ministers are not nominated for the IP. Among them, a Dalit, Man Bahadur BK from the NC, Gyanendra Bahadur Karki from the NC-D and Amik Sherchan (Deputy PM) were not included in the nominations of 10, 6 and 3 seats respectively. Jana Morcha faction led by Amik Sherchan has only 1 MP and got 3 seats for nominations whereas the factions led by Chitra Bahadur KC and Chitra Bahadur Ale Magar has 3 and 2 MPs, respectively but did not receive any seats. Therefore, these two factions protested their inclusion in the 48 seats. The decision of the Seven Party AllianceMaoists (SPAM) could have been democratic inclusion if the 3 seats had been distributed to the 3 factions having one each. KC and Ale of Jana Morcha and ex-PM Surya Bahadur Thapa and RPP demanded amendments to the draft of the IC including reducing the powers of the PM, which was in the minority in the incumbent House. The amendment proposals were tabled by UML, Nepal Sadhbhavana Party (NSP) Anandi Devi, Gopal Koirala of NC and Bijay Kumar Gachhedar of NC-D, but later withdrawn at the eleventh hour.
Violation of the Constitution

For the first time in the history of Nepal, Supreme Court Chief Justice Dilip Kumar Paudel administered the oath of office and the secrecy to PM Girija, who is both acting head of the state and head of the executive under the New Interim Constitution of Nepal 2007. But the oath created a constitutional debate about whether the PM violated the new IC as PM Koirala did not take the oath of office and secrecy as the acting head of the state and head of government under the Interim Statute of Nepal 2007. He was administered the oath in late April 2006 under Constitution of the Kingdom of Nepal 1990. Similarly, the Chief Justice took the oath from the King on July 29, 2005 under the Constitution of 1990.
Election Manifesto of Political Parties on Inclusion NC policy on Ethnicities: Preservation and promotion of different language, culture and tradition existing in the country; elimination of regional and community disparity in development; Set up culture centers to promote songs, dance and cultures of different communities; set up an independent council of janajatis; protect and promote knowledge, skill, art and culture of indigenous groups; empowerment of indigenous groups in education and health program NC policy on : Equal opportunity for job in police, army and civil service without discrimination; distribution of citizenship certificate NC policy on Dalits: Special provisions in education and law to marginalized groups; scholarship for Dalit students; Representation of Dalits and backward communities in party, parliament and others; set up an independent council for dalit; 3

utilization of Dalit's skill and knowledge UML policy on Ethnicities: Secular state; abolish constitutional/legal provisions of discrimination on caste/ethnicity, language, religion, and culture; make constitutional provision for the representation of backward janajatis to National Assembly; autonomy to local elected body for the promotion of caste/ethnic, language, religion and culture; primary education by mother tongue; Set up academy for ethnic, language, religion and cultural development UML policy on : End region based discrimination in recruitment in army UML policy on Dalits: Abolition of untouchability; reservation for backward communities and areas in education, health and civil service Maoists war policy on nationalities: There shall be separate national autonomous regions for the nations/nationalities speaking different languages (e.g. Maithili, Bhojpuri, Awadhi etc.), and all the oppression and unequal treatment meted out to ans particularly Madhesi people, shall be ended. The prolonged issue of citizenship of the Madhesi people shall be resolved in a scientific, just, and democratic manner. Maoists war policy on Dalits: All forms of prevailing exploitation/oppression of Dalits as per Hindu Varna system shall be ended and Dalits shall be considered completely equal to other citizens. Untouchability shall be totally abolished and those practicing any kind of untouchability against Dalits shall be severely punished. Since Dalits are oppressed caste wise for long, and are generally weak and backward economically socially, culturally and otherwise, the State shall make provision for the special rights to them until they turn practically equal to others and this shall be governed by rules. RPP policy on Ethnicities: Protection and promotion of language, culture, tradition and religion of Janajatis; promote interest of janajatis on social, economic and political spheres; representation of janajatis in governance RPP policy on : Respect to causes/demands of people; equal opportunity to people in military, police and civil services; end of citizenship problem and Representation in Public Service Commission; respect Madhesi sentiment in local leadership in both parties and in elected bodies RPP policy on Dalits: Priority to overall development of dalit and backward communities; Strict implementation of Muliki Ain; protection and promotion of traditional skill and profession of dalits; representation in party NSP policy on Ethnicities: Freedom of religion; primary education on mother tongue and Reservation of 30 percent seat to hill ethnic people in government and semi government jobs NSP policy on : Reservation of 50 percent seat to people in government and semi government jobs; set up a separate battalion of army for people; Making voter list of 1980 referendum as cut of year for distribution of citizenship; recognize Hindi as second national language; federal government NSP policy on Dalits: Free education and scholarship to Dalit UPF policy on Ethnicities: Secular state; equal status to all languages; Right to use mother tongue in education, court and legislature; reservation for dalit and ethnic groups in National Assembly; Ethnic autonomy; End of domination of one particular caste, linguistic, religious group; make National Assembly as Ethnic House UPF policy on Dalits: End of untouchability; reservation for dalit and backward communities in education, health, and employment NMKP policy on Ethnicities: Freedom of religion and protection of tradition of religious tolerance and Protection and promotion of language, literature and culture of different communities NMKP policy on : Resolve citizenship problem

Welcomes The Government of India welcomed the IC and formation of the interim legislature in Nepal. The Ministry of External press statement reads, These are significant milestones in Nepals progress toward a new political era which we hope will be characterized by peace, stability and economic development. But, the statement urged the Nepal Government not to include them in the interim government until the completion of the arms management arrangements have been finalized. The press statement issued by the US embassy in Kathmandu stated that we hope that the promulgation of the IC will help in conducting free and fair elections to a CA elections and move the country towards the full-fledged and lasting democracy. The US wants the arms management issue resolved before the formation of the interim government of Nepal. The United Nations and European Commission and its Member States congratulated the Nepalis on the auspicious occasion of promulgation of the IC. The Peoples Republic of China also welcomed it.
Conclusion

The behavior of the IC and IP fails to identify knowledgeable, skillful and devoted persons in Nepal except those who are existing political leaders and their associates. The 48 set aside for the civil society were often filled by the hatchet-men of the politicos. Similarly, there was no opportunity for independent personalities to stand for the CA elections. The NC has transformed itself into the IP continuing the elitism of the past and excluding Dalits. In contrast, the UML has been more inclusive, electing two Dalits in the spirit of reform. Consistent with their ideology, the Maoists have demonstrated practical inclusiveness by incorporating all diversities existing in Nepal: caste, ethnicity including minorities, language, culture, region and sex. The Bush administration is not enthusiastic about the representation of the Maoists in the Interim Parliament. The US government continues to view the Maoists as terrorists. It has stated that it will not support Ministries headed by Maoists. Bushs war policy (more wars mean more money by selling weapons and forcefully capturing natural resources of feeble countries) in recent days has gradually been fading out from the world including Nepal and the mobility of Americans has been squeezed throughout the globe. The US had adopted a wait and see position from the beginning of Gyanendras take over of the government on Feb 1, 2005, and has taken an active role in Nepali politics since the SPAM signed a political understanding in New Delhi on Nov 22, 2006. The key aim of that understanding was to encourage the Peoples Movement II. The Bush Administration attempted to bring the NC and the King together to break the Alliance of the SPA and to prevent the understanding with Maoists. But, they failed due to the success of Popular Movement II. They then argued against adopting the political agreement and the CPA between the SPAM until the Maoist Army was
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disarmed. Even after the Political Agreement, the U.S. pressured the PM, as well as the SPA leaders, to delay the proclamation of the Interim Constitution and to exclude the involvement of the Maoists in the Interim Parliament and Government. But events to date have contravened the Bush Administrations position. These events signify the failure of Bushs policies in Nepal. It still is clamoring after ratification of the IC and establishment of Interim Parliament (IP) tha t Maoists should not be involved in the Interim Government prior to completion of weapons management. The point worth mentioning here is that it is against the Political Agreement and Comprehensive Peace Accord. The US Ambassador to Nepal, James F Moriarty told the PM that if the elections are held according to the IC, without amendments, the Maoists would obtain a majority, thereby threatening the authority of the NC. He predicted that the Maoists would seize three (Western, Mid-western and Far-western) out of five regions if the present security situation continues under the current arms management arrangement. He said that although the UN monitoring the arms management, the Maoists have decided not to place a number of modern arms in the containers, thereby reducing the chances for free and fair elections. He opined that there are three factors that mitigate against the holding of free and fair elections: (i) the Maoists are preparing to capture voting booths; (ii) the morale of the government structure is weakening; and (iii) the Maoists will seize state power if the Interim Parliament and Government are formed in the present climate (Source: Jana Aastha, Weekly: Jan 10, 2007). On Jan 19, 2007, Moriarty bluntly accused the Maoists claiming that they have accumulated crummy weapons from Bihar, India for locking in the cantonments and retaining the modern outside. He further said that the Maoist Army might not reach 35,000 in the cantonments, because they want to leave some of them outside. The Home Minister Krishna Sitaula, on the following day, objected to Moriatys statement for the first time and said that what he said is false. He further said that he believed that the Maoists would confine all their weapons. He said that Moriarty remarks might be a part of the reaction coming from some diplomats who are surprised at the one-after-another success in the peace process. He said, We do not care what others comment but we have kept democracy and national sovereignty at the center while pushing forward with the peace process (Kathmandu Post : January 21, 2007). This time again, Moriarty might be proven wrong. Moriarty himself accepted that he was proven wrong when he had commented there is no possibility to success for peace between SPAM even after the first Agreement (12 -point) had been reached between SPAM on Nov 22, 2005 in New Delhi, India. Neither the war policy nor the welfare policy of Bush Administration has been successful in Nepal. Speculation is high that the US Ambassador to Nepal, James F Moriarty, days are numbered. The Indian governments role in resolving the conflict and building peace was constructive and it was hailed from all quarters of Nepali society. Unfortunately, recent statements of the Indian Ambassador to Nepal seem to echo the US stance in Nepal. The Army Chief, Rukmangat Katwal, gave a briefing on the political situation to the Heads of Diplomatic Missions and Chiefs of INGOs and donors at the reception held at former PM Surya Bahadur Thapas residence at Maligaon on January 13. There was a long talk with the Deputy Chief of Mission US, the British Ambassador, the Indian Ambassador, the Army Chief and Surya Bahadur Thapa regarding the role of King (more) in the New Constitution, and the peace process. They allegedly concluded that the Maoists would have a clear road to a constitutional coup if the Interim Constitution was proclaimed without changes as the other communist forces such as the CPN (UML) would support the Maoists due to pressures from International Communists. Under these circumstances, there would be little that the powerful countries of the world could say or do. This conclusion parallels that of the Royal Palace and Nepal Army. The main purpose of the reception was to pressure the PM to maintain the status quo regarding the Kings role until the CA elections. Early in the morning of the next day, the Indian Ambassador met with the PM but what transpired at that meeting has not been revealed. The ratification of the IC suspended the Monarchy and placed it inside the coffin but it is yet to be buried. The will of the national and international forces pressuring the Monarchy to create obstacles to allowing the communists to assume state power is declining. Subash Nembang from the UML was sworn in as Speaker and Krishna Bahadur Mahara from the Maoists is the Deputy PM. The octogenarian PM is sick and his health is deteriorating. He has not been able to be in his office for more than a couple of days within the last nine months. Should his condition worsen, the Deputy PM will be left to perform all the responsibilities of the PM in the capacity of Acting PM. A total of 182 (55%) of the 329 members of the IP are communists and thus there is no need for them to organize a constitutional coup. As there is no clause that allows for the impeachment of the PM in the IC, the Acting PM (a Maoist) could not be replaced. The PM was not in favor of amending the draft IC to strengthen the PMs powers thinking that he will remain in that office permanently. In the short term, it looks as if the NC is benefiting, but from a long-term perspective, the communists could obtain the upper hand for the first time in the history of Nepal. However, the history of Nepal shows that the minority has often successfully hammered wedges between communist factions, and they may do so again. In the first General Elections in the 1960s, the communists occupied only 4 seats out of 109 in Parliament, whereas the NC had 74 seats, a two-thirds majority. After two years, the NC government was ousted by King Mahendra and Panchayat Autocracy was introduced. After Popular Movement I, the NC captured 110 (simple majority) out of 205 seats in the general elections in 1991 with 38% of total votes cast, whereas the UML got 69 seats with 29% of the votes cast. In the first mid-term polls, the UML received 88 seats with 31% of the votes, while the NC got only 83 seats with 33% of the votes. Similarly, in the second mid-term polls in 1999, the NC won 111 seats with 36% of the votes and the UML won 71 seats with 31% of the votes. The break away faction ML got 6% of the votes but no seats. The ML has fused with
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UML, which raises their total votes to 37%. Nepal has become a fertile ground for the communists despite their decline worldwide. The Royal Palace is using Saam, Daam, Danda, Bhed (a policy of diplomacy, money, punishment and division) to enhance the Kings position in the IC. King Gyanendra, who used to listen more and speak less, has changed his strategy and is speaking more in an effort to unify all the pro-monarchist and conventional parties. The King is conducting night meetings with his supporters including the Nepal Army. Not only has the King sent his Chief Secretary to meet with the PM but had himself scheduled a time on Jan 13, 2007 to influence the IC. However, the PM cancelled the appointment due to pressures from the republican forces within NC, such as Krishna Prasad Sitaula, Shekhar Koirala and others. Due to those same pressures, the PM did not give audience to the Judges who were presenting their recommendations to amend the draft constitution. The NC republicans were unable to prevent the PM for nominating 10 parliamentarians, who happen to represent pro-monarchial forces but who had to be from among class and professional organizations, disadvantaged ethnicities, Dalits, backward regions, indigenous nationalities, Madhesi, women and political personalities. The PM did it without even consulting with his colleagues. This is one-man show of PM Girija Prasad Koirala. Many NC members are saying that one should not hold the both positions of Head of the State and of the Government, and the Party President. The person dreaming of becoming or bringing a new King shall be fated similar to the old King. Interestingly, the Nepal Army held celebrations on the occasion of the 36 th Birthday of Crown Prince Paras on Dec. 30, 2006. He provided cocks and he-goats for the participants. Major General Gajendra Limbu, the former army secretary of the Royal Palace, has been visiting Army installations and p ropagating If not now, when would we support the Palace? (Source: Jana Aastha, Weekly: Jan 17, 2007) The army chief Katwal, who was raised in the Palace, provides regular unofficial briefings to the King. The armys rations have been improved. The current political unrest against the SPAM set off by the MJF in the plains is continuing and the SPAM is claiming that the Palace backs MJF. It appears that the monarchial and conventional forces are working with hooks or by crooks to instigate coup in favor of the King.
-----Contributed by Dr. Bishnu Pathak and Chitra Niraula Edited by Professor Dr. Virginia E. OLeary Assisted by Shankar Poudyal, Prem Prasad Pathak, Krishna Sundar Thapa and Yahsoda Upreti
CS Center is an academic, policy oriented and research based non-government, non-partisan and non-profit autonomous institution registered with the Government of Nepal. Its purpose is to promote peace, respect human rights, enhance democratic process, and protect the poor, marginalized, disadvantaged and vulnerable (PMDV) people and endorse social justice and dignity through education, training, action research, action advocacy, capacity building and networking as a Think Tank, Center for Excellence. It has networks with 2,000 academic and professional institutions, including TRANSCEND, Woodrow Wilson Center, European Peace University, etc. in 76 countries. It is the TRANSCEND chapter in Nepal. Its International Advisors are: Professor Dr. Johan Galtung, TRANSCEND; Professor Dr. Virginia E. OLeary, USA; Professor Dr. David Seddon, UK; Professor Dr. Dietrich Fi scher, European Peace University, Austria; Professor Dr. Raymond Saner, Switzerland, Professor Dr. Brigitt Steinmann, France; Dr. Anthony Callow, New Zealand; Associate Professor Dr. Karen Valentin, Denmark; Associate Professor Richard Gendron, Canada; and Associate Professor Dr. Renato Libanora, Italy