TRENDS IN URBAN POPULATION AND URBANISATION IN INDIA A STUDY

J.Anjaiah*

All theories on urbanization right from sociology to economic discipline says that, its expansion is bound to be inevitable due to industrial development associated with expanding tertiary (Service) sector in any economy. The degree and speed of urbanization directly linked with level and progress of industrial development in concerned economy. Especially from Economics discipline point of view, Neo-classical school of Economics views urban centers are drivers of regional and national economic growth. In their view concentration of population and economics activities provides some external economics such as skilled labour, technical innovations, access to global market and research centers. These factors will help to improve productive efficiency, specialization and division of labour etc.It means urbanization will have positive impact on economic growth 6. According to national commission on urbanization, cities are engine of economic growth, reservoirs of capital and skill, centers of knowledge and innovation, sources of formal and informal sector employment, generators of public financial resources for development and hopes of millions of rural migrant. Globalization and liberalization have made cities the preferred destinations outsourcing . From Indian scenario importance of urbanization and its contribution to the national income shown in the following two tables:
7

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Paper presented in the UGC & ICSSR(SRC) sponsored two days National Seminar on Urbanization in India: Problems and Prospects on 24 th & 25th January, 2009 organized by Department of Economics, University College of Womens, Koti, Hyderabad.

Table 1 Share of Urban Areas in National Income

Year

Total NDP(Rs.

NDP Sector

Urban Share Sector

of

urban

Billion) 1970-71 368 1980-81 1103 1993-94 7161 Table 1 shows that, the share

( Rs Billion) 139 453 3312 of urban in total

in Total NDP(%) 37.7 41.1 46.2 national domestic

product is consistently increasing from 1970-71 to 1993-94. Table 2 Contribution of Urban Areas to National income Year 1951 1981 1991 2001 Share (%) 17.3 23.3 25.7 27.8 of Population Share Income(%) 29.0 47.0 55.0 60.0 of National

Source: Ministry of Urban Affairs, Government of India, reported in Kumar (2003). Table 2 reveals that the share of national income in relation to share urban population is more than double The urbanization a vital significance for any economy as it is one of the parameters of characteristic according to many Economic Development Theories. Generally the level and growth of urbanization is measured in terms of many factors which are commonly responsible and known as pull and push factors. These pull and push factors results in people migration from rural areas to urban areas. To measure the growth of urbanization in any economy the percentage of population living in the urban areas will be taken into consideration. Let us have a look at the growth of urbanization in some selecting other world regions with varied levels of development. For this we can be seen in the following table 3.

TABLE - 3 URBAN POPULATION SIZE IN SOME DEVELOPED ADND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES/ REGIONS 2 S.N o 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Country New Zealand Australia Japan North America South America Latin America Europe Africa Asia Population In % 86 85 77

72 to 77

34

The percentage of population living in urban areas is higher in developed regions compared to developing regions. New Zealand recorded highest urban populated i.e. 86 percent. The urban populations in other developed countries / regions are Australia (85 percent) and Japan (77 percent). The other developed or developing regions such as North America, South America, Latin America and in Europe the urban population ranges from 72 to 77 percent . Whereas in developing regions such as Africa and Asia 34 percent urban population is recorded. In contrast the urbanization level in India is very much lower in nature. The following Table-4 and its associate figure reveal that, the upward trends

are very much marginal in levels of urbanization in India from 1985 to 2005. In future some improvement may be forecasting from 2005 to 2020.

TABLE 43

Urbanisation level in India in Percentage Year ( %) 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 24.3 25.5 26.8 28.4 30.5 33.0 35.9 39.2 42.5

Source : Last Updated on 07/12/99 By mukungu philip joel ( Indian Demography graph from Internet) The urban population growth rate in India has typical trends. It is very much in inconsistent and pessimistic in nature. Table 5 and its associated figure reveals its trends.

TABLE 53

Urban population Growth rate in India in Percentage Year ( %) 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 3.5 2.75 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.75 2.50 2.55

Source : Last Updated on 07/12/99 By mukungu philip joel ( Indian Demography graph from Internet)

The above Table and graph reveal that, from 1985 to 1990 urban population growth rate is 3.5 percent. Then its following five years, that is during 1990-95 it was dropped to 2.75 percent. A marginal incremental is recorded i.e., 2.90 percent in 1995-2000. During 2000-2005 again it dropped to 2.80 percent. Based upon the forecasting i.e., from 2005-2010, 2010-2015, 2015-2020 and 2020-2025 the urban population growth rate may be 2.80 percent, 2.70 percent, 2.75 percent and 2.50 percent respectively.

The Growth rate of urban population and level of urbanization are closely related to each other. For sustainable development these two factors must grow in a required equilibrium level for a growing economy. Disequilibrium growth between these two may causes many socio-economic and political problems in a country.

A model of growth of urbanization connected to Infrastructure facilities was framed by an eminent Professor Albert Berlett under the title of ONE LIFE TIME OF GROWTH which reveals the essentiality of minimum infrastructural growth rate in relation to growth rate of city per year. The model is shown as below. ONE LIFETIME OF GROWTH4 Growth rate of City per year 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 2 2*2=4 2* 2* 2* = 8 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 = 16 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 = 32 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 = 64 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 * 2 = 128 2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2= 256 2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2*2 = 512 The above model reveals that, if city growth rate is 1 percent, per year factors (Infrastructural facilities) must grow at the rate of 2 Percent. If city growth rate is 2 Percent, factors growth must be 2x2=4 Percent. If city growth rate is 3 Percent, factors growth rate must be 2x2x2=8 Percent so on .. It means factors growth must be exponential to the city growth rate. For minimum sustainability of city life, this minimum correlation must be maintained between the above two variables. The relationship between the above two variables can be expressed from the Malthusian view between population growth and food production growth1. Factor

If city growth rate is in artimetical progression, factors (Infrastructural progression. facilities) growth rate must be in geometrical

A small attempt is made to understand the existing problems of urbanization in India by comparing two variables growth i.e. 1. Urban population growth. 2. Changes in urbanization level in India, which is derived from table-2 for each five year interval. The comparative study is mentioned in the following table 6. TABLE-6 Year 1985-1990 1990-1995 1995-2000 2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015 2015-2020 2020-2025 Urban Population growth in India (In percentage) 3.5 2.75 2.90 2.80 2.70 2.75 2.50 2.55 Change in the urbanization

level in India (In percentage) 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.5 2.9 2.3 3.3

From the above Table-6 it is revealed that, urban population growth is more than two times higher compared to increase in urbanization level till 19952000. Then from 2000-2010 the growth of the urbanization level has been improved. In future forecasting the same is expected. But this level of improvement is not sufficient compared to urban population growth as per Albert Berlett Model. As per my understanding 1. In the above table the statistical figures pertaining to Urban population growth, indicates growth or expansion of city. 2. Figures under Changes in the urbanization level indicates improvement in the infrastructure facilities (Factors).

CONCLUSION: In the process of economic development infrastructure facility sector has vital importance. The authorities have to pay appropriate attention to provide minimum requirements like clean water, drainage and sewage facilities, power supply, roads and sanitation facilities etc. In India the shortfall of these facilities may be because of shortfall of required estimated funds5, corruption in the administration, lack of proper foresight regarding urbanization and increase in time lag in providing necessary infrastructure facilities. This paper therefore strongly pleads for creation of proper and sufficient creation of essential infrastructure facilities as a necessary pre conditioned for planning for expansion of urban sector. But unfortunately a glance at Indian economy reveals the opposite. Here cities are expanding first and then awaiting the creation of necessary infrastructure facilities. Reference : 1 T.R.Malthus : An essay on the Principles of population as its Affect on Future 2 Improvement of scoeity-1798.

Subramanyam & Bawa, Urban Economic Development in India, Galgotia Publications New Delhi, 1998.

3.

Demography, Mukungu Philip Joel (1999).

4 5. 6 7.

Prof .Albert Berlett: Reduce our Numbers the unspeakable P Word India infrastructure Report (Rakesh mohan committee 1996) Amitab Kundu: Urbanisation and Economics Growth 2006 Indias National commission on Urbanisation report ( 1988).