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Chapter

12

On the Stock Exchange of Science


Changing Demand for Intellectuals1

Introduction
In what way will the social demands for intellectuals change in the near future? Whom should higher educational institutions of our country graduate? Should our educational system be modified? These are questions which worry many people, and answering them is not so easy as it might seem. We believe that observing the changes in the demand for intellectuals will allow us, if not to answer the questions, then at least to sharpen the insight of those responsible for these problems and their solution. In some Western countries, a close watch is maintained over the rise and fall of demands for technical manpower. In the United States there is a special firm, Deutsch, Shea, & Evans, Inc., which regularly issues an engineer and scientist demand index by scanning 25 newspapers and 14 technical journals. Figure 1 shows the changes in demand for technical manpower from January 1961 to December 1972. The first thing that catches the eye is the clear non-regularity of the curve. The graph seems t o support to some degree the statement made by Derek de Solla Price that the transfer from exponential growth to logistic growth will be accompanied by sharp fluctuations, marking the end to the even curve of growth. Such notable low-frequency fluctuation makes even short-term forecasting difficult. (It is hardly pertinent t o speak here of any stable low-frequency harmonic constituent). Most probably, we are dealing here with a stochastic process with a temporally unstable spectrum. Statistical analysis proves useless here. The firm Deutsch, Shea, &Evans makes only observations of the total
1 This c h a p w was written with C . A. Bafulova and A. V. Yarkho. A brief version was published in Russian in the ~ournal Pnroda (No. 2. 1915). I r w s ttranrlaled by A. V . Yarkho.

26 1

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FGURFI . Changes in t h e demand

lor engineers and researchers in ihc United States from January 1961 to December 1972 according lo Deulsch, Shea, &Evans, Inc. The

perccntager show t h e average for each year.

demand, but we are interested in some other things, namely, in a detailed study of how demands for various specialities are redistributed over the course of time. These data may demonstrate the way in which the advance guard of the intellectual activities of society changes. Such a study is more reasonably carried out by scanning employment advertisements in some country other than the United States. This is true because American professors tend to "take care" of their students by recommending them for a job. In contrast, in Great Britain the vacancies are mainly applied for by graduates on the basis of want ads. We have analyzed the employment advertisements in two journals, Nature and New Scientist and Science Journal, for 1960 and 1969 and those in one newspaper, the Times of London, for 1961 and 1971 (the interval for the journals was 9 years since we began our analysis in 1970 with the journals for 1969, whereas advertisements in their present-day form only began to be published in 1960). We scanned all the advertisements in the journals and in the newspaper for January, July, and December of the two years because these are the months of the highest, lowest, and middle rate of demand. The analysis consisted in registering the number of people with various qualifications sought by the advertisers. Occasionally, there was difficulty in defining the precise number of people wanted. Sometimes the advertisements indicated the number of positions open, in which case it was registered, but some organizations demanded specialists without concrete mention of their number and in these cases we put it down as one specialist. In the majority of cases, however, it was clear how many specialists were needed. Another approach to the analysis of employment advertisements is to record the amount of space occupied by the advertisements. The changes in this value seem t o be a good index, but we gave up this approach because we found it too time-consuming. We only mention that large ad-

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vertisements are published only by big firms; higher educational institutions, as a rule, publish small advertisements. A few words should be said about statistical confidence of the results obtained. At the first stage of the research, while studying the distribution of advertisements for the principal specialties, we dealt with large samples and paid attention only to the specialties demanded comparatively often. In all these cases the relative frequencies estimated had a coefficient of variation about 5 percent, although somethings it reached 10 percent. All estimates are sure to deteriorate when we come down to analyzing the way separate small groups of specialists are distributed among institutions.
TABLE I.
Demand for speciulisrs in 1960 und 1969 uccording to the journuls N a t u r e and New Scientist and Science Journal (NSSJ)

Demand for specialisis in Biology Biochemistry Chemistry Physics Mathematics Mechanical engineering Metallurgy Agriculture Geology Medicine Pharmacology
Food industry

NSSJ

Geography Humanities Tordl

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Analysis of Employment Advertisements in Nature and New Scientist and Science Journal
The results of our analysis of the two English journals are given in Table 1. The data support the following conclusions: 1. The total number of employment advertisements hardly changed during the 9-year interval. Note that Figure 1 shows roughly the same picture for the United States. A kind of synchronous development of these two Western countries seems to have occurred. 2. Both journals give figures demonstrating a sharp redistribution of various specialities. Biologists are required twice as often in 1969 as in 1960. Biochemists are requested twice as much according to one journal and four times as much according to the other. At the same time, the demand for physicists and chemists decreased sharply. In 1960 requests for physicists and chemists reached 43 t o 49 percent, and in 1969 they were only about 28 to 30 percent. The demand for biologists and biochemists increased from 18 percent in one journal and 12.2 percent in the other
TABLE 2. Number of positions for biologists and biochemists advertised in the journals Nature and New Scientist and Science Journal (NSSJ)
No. of

oositions advertised*
Gavt. 116 (23.2) 111 (27.0) 167 (14.7) 89 (9.2) 12 (5.1) 19 (16.8) 50 (11.7) 25 (6.4)
Firms

Research and development organizalions Year Journal Total no. 500 (100) 411 (100) 1,131 (100) 987 (100) 237 (100) 113 (100) 429 (100) 393 (100) C-U 276 (55.2) I81 (44.0) 689 (60.9) 578 (59.8) 105 (44.3) 29 (25.7) 240 (55.9) 216 (54.9) L-RI 44 (8.8) 47 (11.4) 155 (13.7) 187 (19.3) 18 (7.6) 8 (7.1) 39 (9.1) 65 (16.6)

Hosrr.
19 (3.6) 17 (4.1) 41 (3.6) 38 (8.8) 60 (25.3) 38 (33.6) 57 (13.3) 48 (12.2)

Total 224 (44.8) 230 (56.0) 442 (39.1) 389 (40.2) 132 (55.7) 84 (74.3) 189 (44.1) 177 (45.1)

Biologists 1960 Norure

NSSJ
1969
Nolure

45 (9.0) 55 (13.5) 79 (7.0) 75 (8.8) 42 (17.7) 19 (16.8) 43 (10.0) 39 (9.9)

NSSJ
Biochemists Nolure 1960
NSSJ

1969

Nature

NSSJ

universities; horpilals.

The percentage of the total represented by each number is ,haws in parrnrheses. C-U, collega and L~RI,laboratories and research inrticutei: Govl.. government organizations; Horp..

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one in 1960 to 41.1 percent and 37.2 percent, respectively, in 1969. During these 9 years, science obviously turned from a predominantly physical-chemical orientation to a primarily biological one. 3. Detailed analysis of the requests for biologists and biochemists showed that these specialties, too, underwent modification (see Table 2). At present we can speak of a biologist-engineer, or of engineering biology. This follows from the fact, reflected in Table 2, that in 1969 about 40 percent of requests for biologists were made by government institutions, research institutes, and private firms. It appears that the transition of ecological problems from purely theoretical ones into real problems affecting the national economy caused industrial firms and governmental institutions to turn to biologists for help. Furthermore, a larger number of biologists were needed by firms producing foodstuffs and products of microbiological synthesis (vitamins, antibiotics, and enzymes). The activity of such firms is already of an engineering-biological character. Also noteworthy is the increased demand for biologists by medical instiTABLE 3. Number ofpositions for slalisficians and mafhemalicians advertised in [he iournals Nature and New Scientist and Science Journal (NSSI)
No, of positions advertised*

Research and development organizations

Year

Journal Total no. 103 (100) 59 (100) 237

C-U
43 (41.8) I5 (25.4) 147

L-RI 10 (9.7) 3 (5.1) 34

Govt. 23 (22.3) 16 (27.1) 41

Firms 21 (20.4) 24 (40.7)

Hosp.

Total 60 (58.2)
44

Statisticians 1960 Narure


NSSJ

6
(5.8)
I

(1.7) 7

(74.6)

1969

Nature

90

Mathematicians Norure 1960


NSSJ

332 (100) 178 (100) 174t (100) 25 1 (100)

254 (23.5) 98 (55.1) 142 (81.5) 127 (48.6)

13 (3.9) 4 (2.2) 9 (5.2) 42 (16.1)

25 (7.5) 18 (10.1) 23 (13.3) 43 (16.5)

38 (11.4) 58 (32.6)

2 (0.6)
0

78 (76.5) 80 (44.9) 32 (18.5) 134 (51.4)

1969

Narure
NSSJ

0
43 (16.5)

0 6 (2.3)

The percentage of ihc t u r d represenled by each nurnher is shoun in parentheses. C-U. colleges and uni\errilier: L ~ R i lahoratorle, . and rcseaich i n m u l e i ; t i m t . . g m e r n m e n l organ~zationi:Hosp.. hospirali.

t Includes SO lor

~urc rnaihemalicians.

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tutions, which seems to testify to the tendency to strengthen the theoretical, i.e., the general biological, basis of medicine. Last but not least, the demand by academic institutions for biologists remained high, which suggests that the need for teachers of biology was not yet satisfied. 4. Table 3 contains data on the changes in the number of requests for mathematicians and mathematical statisticians. The first thing to be noted is a sharp increase in the need for mathematical statisticians, quite notable in both journals. In 1969, the demand for statisticians by higher educational institutions remained high, though the two journals yielded quite different results. It is of interest that statisticians were requested not only by government institutions but also by industrial firms, laboratories, and sometimes even by hospitals. One curious advertisement for a statistician was by a firm producing turkeys ready for roasting! As to the demand for mathematicians, the data proved difficult to interpret. Whereas Nature showed a sharp decline, New Scientist and SciTABLE 4. Number of positions for chemists and physicists advertised in the iournals Nature and New Scientist and Science Journal (NSSJ)
advertised* No. of ~ o s i t i o n s Research and development organizations

Year

Journal Total no. 880 (100) 974 (100) 544 (100) 546 (100) 862 (100) 1,142 (100) 502 (100) 552 (100)

C-U 348 (39.5) 190 (19.5) 331 (60.8) 307 (56.2)


400 (46.4) 306 (26.6)

L-RI 46 (5.3) 74 (7.6) 48 (8.8) 85 (15.6)


40 (4.6) 56 (4.9)

Gavt. 142 (16.1) 209 (21.5) 70 (12.9) 45 (8.3) 178 (20.7) 315 (27.6) 83 (16.5) 66 (12.0)

Firms 332 (37.7) 492 (50.5) 78 (14.4) 87 (15.9) 199 (23.1) 430 (37.6) 23 (4.6) 55 (10.0)

Hosp.
12 (1.4) 9 (0.9) 17 (3.1) 22 (4.0) 45 (5.2) 35 (3.1) 32 (6.5) 26 (4.7)

Total 532 (60.5) 784 (80.5) 213 (39.2) 239 (43.8) 462 (53.6) 836 (74.2) 168 (33.5) 219 (39.7)

Chemists 1960 Nature

NSSJ
1969

Noture NSSI

Physicists 1960 Nature

NSSI
1969

Nature NSSI

334 (66.5) 333 (60.3)

30 (5.9) 72 (13.0)

The percentage of the total represented by each number is shown in parentheses. C-U, colleges and universities: L-RI, laboratories and research institutes: Govr., government Harp., hospitals.

On the Stock Exchange of Science


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267

50%
'

Floun~2. Changing proportion of physical and life scientists in U.S. scientific manpower. (Adapted from Price (1971) and Rosen (1971)l

< , Biologists BiochemiSts

40%

30%

ence Journal showed a large increase of demand. Pure mathematicians (we have selected them only from Nature) were required only for academic posts. Of the advertisements in New Scientist and Science Journal, 51.4 percent were placed by research institutes, firms, laboratories, government offices, and even hospitals. Though the last represented only 2.3 percent of the advertisements, the very fact that mathematicians were invited to work in hospitals is of great importance. We hope this is indicative of the changes beginning to take place in the thinking of physicians. The divergence of the data from Nature and New Scientist and Science Journal might relate to the fact that institutions which advertise in the latter are not purely scientific but are representative of a more administrative or technological character. 5. Despite the decline in demand for physicists and chemists, it is of interest to see where they are required. These data are given in Table 4. Both specialties remained much in demand for academic posts. In 1960, the advertisements of this kind were about 60 percent. Another interesting feature is a notable demand for both specialties in hospitals. It would be interesting to compare the data we obtained with similar data for other countries. The graph shown in Figure 2 (reproduced from a paper by D. Price) illustrates the way the proportion of people in the United States working in physico-chemical sciences, on the one hand, and in the so-called "life sciences," on the other hand, changes. The picture is similar to that for Great Britain: at the beginning of the 1950's the respective proportions for these two fields were 60 and 30 percent, but by the end of the 1960's they were, respectively, 50 percent and 38 percent. If these curves are extrapolated, then somewhere in the 1980's the proportion to be expected is 55 percent and 45 percent. Our data for 1969 from the journals showed that chemistry occupied 28 to 30 percent of the advertisements while biology and biochemistry occupied 37 to 41 percent. Private conversations with American scientists have supported these data. They speak of the difficulties physicists and chemists face in trying to get jobs in traditional fields of knowledge and of the growing

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demand for biologists, as well as non-biologists, for biological research. For example, mathematical statisticians move from space research to biology, medicine, and health services. The July 1971 issue of the journal Science Policy News stated that the number of jobs for physicists during 1969 dropped by 20 percent, though the number of graduates froKphysical institutions remained the same (14,300). Moreover, despite the general . .. . downward tendency in demand for scientific workers, the number of persons engaged in research for the Ph.D. degree in 1970 increased by 14.4 percent. There seems to be a loss of balance in the structure of science. It is difficult to assess the situation in the USSR because we have at our disposal no data concerning the changes in demand for intellectuals. The only source of data is the reference book USSR National Economy: 1922-1962, which gives the number of researchers and postgraduates for the specialties in question. These figures are partly reproduced in Table 5. As the reader can see, there are no signs of the redistribution of reseaichers and postgraduates toward biology. The number of biologists is one-half that of physicists and mathematicians in both 1960 and 1969. Moreover, 1969 registers an increase in physicists and mathematicians. In the USSR, we picture a biologist as a teacher, sometimes as a researcher, but in no way as an engineer. All the universities except Moscow University turn out biologists on whose diplomas we read "teacher of biology." In a 1973 issue of the Soviet journal USA: Economy, Politics, Ideology, we came across an article indicating that the expenditures for fundamental (purely scientific) and applied research in the U.S. universities are distributed in the following manner: 47 percent for medicobiological research, 20 percent for other natural sciences, 13 percent for technical subjects, 10 percent for socio-economic disciplines, 3 percent each for mathematics and psychology, and 4 percent for the rest.

TABLE 5 . Percentage of researchers and postgraduare students in crrtain branches of science in the USSR (from the reference book USSR National Economv for 1970 and 19721
Researchers

Postgraduates
1971 10.3 4.7 3.9 1960 9.3 6.5 5.1 1969 11.6 5.5 5.1 1971 10.9 5.2 5.1

Branch of science Physics and mathematics Chemistry Bioloev

1960

1969 10.1 5.0 4.1

8.2 7.4 4.3

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Analysis of Employment Advertisements in the Times of London


Table 6 shows that the number of requests for specialists in the Times in 1971 was only half as large as in 1961. Again, this is well correlated with the data for the United States (see Fig. 1). The proportion of requests for biologists among the total number of newspaper advertisements is not large, but this may be accounted for by the fact that the . . publishes advertisements for a wide range of specialties and newspaper many of the advertisements for biological vacancies are placed in special journals. According to our observations, the principal newspaper advertisers are industrial firms; universities and research institutions advertise mainly in scientific jo."&als. (However, in the above-mentioned case concerning biologists the ads were for university and college appointments.) Another feature of interest is a mighty upward surge in demand for graduates in the humanities. The figure increased from 17.7 percent up to 25.9 percent. In 1971, this was the most frequently requested specialty; it was followed by economists (13.7 percent) and mechanical engineers (11.5 percent). Demands for other specialties were no higher than lbpercent of the total number of advertisements. The majority of the
TABLE 6 . Demandfor specia/isrs according to the Times o f London
Demand for specialists in Biology Biochemistry Chemistry Physics Mathematics Mechanical engineering Metallurgy Agriculture Geology Medicine Pharmacology Food industry Geography "Humanities Psychology 'Economics 'Management science Secretaries Total 1961 81 (5.1%) 23 (0.9%) 181 (7.0%) 191 (7.4%) 180 (7.2%) 440 (17.1%) 35 (1.3%) 36 (1.4%) 26 (1 .O%) 120 (4.7%) I5 (0.6%) 41 (1.6%) 24 (0.9%) 456 (17.7%) 40 (1.6%) 347 (13.5%) 180 (7.0%) 156 (6.0%) 2,572 (106%) 1971 94 (6.9%) 1 1 (0.8%) 79 (5.8%) 1 W (7.4%) 85 (6.3%) 153 (11.3%) 19 (1.4%) 14 (1.0%) I1 (0.8%) 53 (3.9%) 8 (0.6%) 2 (0.2%) 26 (1.9%) 350 (25.9%) 30 (2.2%) 185 (13.7%) 104 (7.7%) 30 (2.2%) 1,354 ( I W % )

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humanists were sought by colleges (65.6 percent), the percentage of these advertisements having doubled since 1961 (32.6 percent). Demands issued by non-educational institutions were distributed among firms, government offices, and laboratories. Applications were invited from lawyers, sociologists, and graduates with a linguistic education. In many cases the last were for secretaries with a mastery of foreign languages. In Chapter 9, the penetration of the humanities into other branches of knowledge was discussed. We have no data on this phenomenon in Great Britain, but it is evident from the U S . university programs that great importance is attached to teaching the humanities to students in other fields. This seems to stem from the growing apprehension of the fact that humanistic education promotes the development of students' ability to think independently better than the technical sciences or even the exact ones. What society needs at present is not only narrow specialists but also researchers who bring a broad interdisciplinary background t o their work.

Concluding Remarks
We believe that the type of data discussed above should be taken into consideration while determining the direction education should take. Such data should be obtained systematically and, probably, for a larger number of countries in order to provide a clearer picture of how demands for specialists change. It is probably pertinent t o make use of other data as well, such as salary changes for various specialties. At present, we have only scattered information. For example, in 1971 Science Policy News mentioned that the median salary of a mathematical statistician in the United States was one of the highest in the country: 16,000 dollars per year. We think demand analysis will prove useful in forecasting almost any prospects. For example, if we wish to imagine in what direction and with what rate the equipment should change in higher educational institutions, it might be helpful to consider curves of parameter growth constructed for various devices advertised in journals.

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