Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| July 01, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

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Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

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Monday| July 01, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
News in brief
FinMin to farmers rescue, asks banks to lend more against warehouse receipts
The Finance Ministry has directed banks to set internal targets for lending against Negotiable Warehouse Receipts and increase servicing of such receipts, according to Dinesh Rai, Chairman, Warehousing Development and Regulatory Authority. The Food Ministry has recognised over 125 agricultural commodities, 26 horticultural produces and registered over 374 warehouses that can issue such receipts which can be transacted without physical transfer of stocks from the warehouse or used as collateral to raise loans, he said. The National Bank for Agriculture and Rural Development hopes to register over 10,000 warehouses under the cooperatives by the year-end. The authority has sought food infrastructure status for agricultural and horticultural storage and the Planning Commission was open to the idea. Also, once the Goods and Services Tax regime is rolled out, investments in warehouses will come into the mainstream. (Source: Business Line)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on June 28, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19396 5842 59.53 96.56 1223.8

2.75 2.81 -1.10 -0.50 1.02

3.31 3.08 0.44 3.06 -5.25

-3.79 -4.40 6.09 1.63 -11.26

14.16 13.46 4.77 24.29 -21.03

.Source: Reuters

U.S. corn plantings defy forecasts, highest since 1936

U.S. farmers planted more corn than expected and a record amount of soybeans despite a wet, cold spring that slowed field work, the government said on Friday. The large plantings put corn and soybean crops near records than would end three years of tight supplies and high prices. Corn plantings were the largest since 1936. In a companion report, the U.S. Agriculture Department said corn, soybean and wheat stockpiles were smaller than trade expectations as of June 1. But stockpiles were far from the extreme shocks that the USDA sometimes delivers in the quarterly data, which show the pace at which grain is being used. "The corn acres number is the big story," said Joe Vaclavik, president of Standard Grain. (Source: Reuters)

Early sowing raises hope; all eyes on July rain

The sowing of kharif crops is on at breakneck speed in most parts, but analysts say much of the final output will depend on the weather in the next month. The current weak monsoon phase in most of the northern parts of the country is adding to the worry. Experts believe if the rains go for a prolonged break in July, a crucial month for sowing, much of the gains in June could dry away. The southwest monsoon was 50% above normal till June 10. Since then, the rains have been rather weak over most of North India. Till June 26, rainfall was 37% above normal. The early onset of monsoon has been beneficial for kharif crops so far. Till Friday, kharif crops were sown in 25.09 mn ha, nearly a fourth of the total area in which sowing is done during the season. It is 85% more than the area sown during the same period in 2012. (Source: Business Standard)

ICE July sugar delivery estimated to be small, Brazil absent

Some 144,000 tonnes of raw sugar will be delivered against the ICE Futures U.S. July contract in the smallest delivery against a July contract on the exchange in seven years, traders said. The world's top producer Brazil will be notably absent as an origin, while the delivery will include sugar from Mexico for the first time in years, traders said. It is expected to be the smallest delivery against a July contract since 2006, according to data supplied by ICE. The actual amount of sugar delivered, as well as the deliverers and receivers, will be reported by the exchange on Monday. This would be the first time Brazilian sugar was not delivered against the ICE contract since October 2011, even as the country harvests a bumper crop. (Source: Reuters)

'Food Security Bill may boost Railways' freight movement

Indian Railways expects a huge movement of foodgrains across the country, once the UPA government's proposed Food Security Bill is passed, a senior official said here today. D P Pande, General Manager of South-Central Railway said the national carrier encourages private freight terminals under the PPP model to meet the future cargo handling demand from all sectors. "As per our estimation, with Food Security Bill, there will be a major increase in the rail movement across the country. In Andhra, as a strong producer of foodgrains, there will be an increased movement," Pande said. (Source: Financial Express)

U.S. sugar-for-ethanol program advances as sugar surplus weighs

The U.S. government is close to buying surplus sugar to sell to ethanol producers at a loss, in an effort to bolster weak domestic sugar prices and avoid losing hundreds of millions of dollars in defaulted loans. The White House budget office released the sugar-for-ethanol program, formally known as the Feedstock Flexibility Program, to the Agriculture Department on Thursday. That paves the way for the USDA to begin purchasing sugar ahead of forfeitures to sell to ethanol producers at a loss. Some analysts are skeptical that USDA can implement the program in time to prevent forfeiture on $620 million in outstanding loans where sugar was used as collateral. (Source: Reuters)

Basmati Exports Plunge on Pesticide Alert by US

Indias basmati rice exports to the US have plunged as many Indian firms are under an import alert by the US authorities, leading to detailed scrutiny for pesticide residue for every grain that is shipped out. This has raised costs, upset schedules and obstructed sales, prompting exporters to seek government intervention. In the first quarter of calendar year 2013, exports are down to 19,583 tn. With over 31 Indian rice firms under the USFDA import alert and 100% scrutiny of the total rice exported from the country, Indian companies feel that America is employing a virtual zero-tolerance policy on Indian pesticides that have been used around the world for years and raise no health concerns. USA diplomatic officials say they have discovered residues on Indian basmati rice of chemicals not approved for use in the US, and hence, shipments of Indian rice have been rejected. Indian companies, which see the American market as a strong branded market that sets international price, now want the government to take up the issue with its US counterparts. (Source: Economic Times)

Brazil's Cosan says ALL not completing sugar shipments

Brazil's biggest sugar and ethanol producer, Cosan SA Industria e Comercio, said on Friday that logistics firm ALL America Latina Logistica was not completing sugar shipping contracts because it has prioritized grains shipments. Brazil has largely relied on trucks to move a record soy and corn crop to its ports and has been criticized abroad for slow shipments. The world's top sugar producer started its cane harvest last month and sugar exports are picking up. (Source: Reuters)

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| July 01, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
After touching contract low of ` 3052 per qtl, Chana July futures witnessed short coverings on Saturday and settled 0.32%. Despite of good demand at such lower levels, prices declined around 4.8% w-o-w on account of higher production this season along with good progress of monsoon. The CCEA declared the MSP for kharif pulses. The MSP of the MSP of Tur has been raised by ` 450 to ` 4,300/qtl, moong by ` 100 to ` 4,500/qtl while Urad has been kept unchanged at ` 4,300/qtl. Sowing of kharif pulses have commenced and 10.52 lakh hectares have th been covered as on 28 June compared to normal 1.22 lakh ha. Spillover effect of kharif pulses is capping sharp upside in chana prices. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX July'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on June 29, 2013 % change Last 3113 3094 Prev day 0.98 0.32 WoW -3.80 -4.80 MoM -3.49 -2.80
Source: Reuters

YoY -29.41 -28.33

Spread Matrix
Closing 3112.5 3094 3164 3228 19-Jul-13 -18.5 0 -

as on June 29, 2013 20-Aug-13 51.5 70 0 20-Sep-13 115.5 134 64 0 as on June 28, 2013 Stocks as on 27th June 79759 50373 10885 141017 Qty in Process 703 1012 339 2054

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 28th June 79799 51014 11046 141859 Qty in Process 924 1978 268 3170

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX August contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of April 2013 declined to 0.04 lakh metric tonnes compared to 0.11 lakh metric tonnes during the previous month. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall. In Australia, total chickpea production in 201213 is estimated to have increased to a record 713000 tones as compared with 485000.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana is expected to decline as good rains and thereby prospects of better kharif sowing may pressurize prices. Good demand at lower levels coupled with declining arrivals may also support the prices. Seasonal pattern in chana indicates that prices generally bottom out in May when arrivals reach their peak, while they start recovering gradually June onwards with declining supply pressure. Thus, going forward downside seems to be limited as prices are near their MSP levels.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Aug Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for July 01, 2013 Resistance 3186-3205

3125-3146

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| July 01, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean continued to witness downside pressure yesterday tracking the sowing progress of soybean. A sharp appreciation in the Rupee also added to the downside pressure. However, higher international prices limited the downside in the domestic prices. The spot as well as the futures settled 0.38% and 0.43% lower respectively on Friday. The CCEA has increased the MSP of soybean (black) by `300 to `2,500/qtl and soybean (yellow) by `320 to `2,560/qtl. The regulator has withdrawn 10% special cash margin on the long side in July th contract w.e.f. 27 June, 2013. Two major soybean growing states MP and Maharashtra have received above normal rains so far in June. Thus, good monsoon and higher prices earned last year is expected to aid sowing this season. Oilseeds sowing is completed under 60.69 lk ha against 11.82 lk ha last year. Soybean in MP, and Maharashtra was planted on 29.74 and 8.26 lk ha, sharply higher against 2.75 and 2.58 lk ha last year. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets CBOT soybean traded on a positive note and settled 1.03% higher on Friday as the USDA reported soybean stocks at 434.5 mn bushels, a nine year low. However, the new crop far month contracts continued to decline as the USDA raised planting estimates to 77.728 mn acres against March forecast of 77.126 mn acres. Price were on an upward trend since past few weeks as supplies are tight till the new crop arrives in the US and delayed planting will further delay harvesting adding to the already squeezed stocks.

Market Highlights

as on June 29, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW 0.92 -5.48 1.38 1.03 0.23 0.56 -3.89 4.77 -1.79 -3.6

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT July'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX July '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3724 3671 1565 3456 3404

MoM -5.55 -4.13 3.66 -1.79 -1.68

YoY -3.75 -5.88 6.72 -13 -13.25

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3724 Spot 19-Jul-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 3670.5 3202.5 3211 0 -468 0 19-Jul-13 -53.5 18-Oct-13 -521.5

as on June 29, 2013 20-Nov-13 -513 -459.5 8.5 0 as on June29, 2013 20-Aug-13 -4.55 47 0 20-Sep-13 43.45 95 48 0 as on June 28, 2013 Qty in Process 100 0 0 100 as on June 28, 2013 Qty in Process 0 314 50 0 1660 150 0 2174 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3455.55 3404 3451 3499 19-Jul-13 -51.55 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 28th June 20014 1285 401 21700 Stocks as on 28th June 3040 4155 20419 634 61015 5073 1670 96006 Qty in Process 211 0 0 211 Qty in Process 0 314 90 0 906 100 40 1450 Stocks as on 27th June 20014 1285 401 21700 Stocks as on 27th June 3040 4155 20389 634 59456 5023 1670 94367

Outlook
Soybean prices may open higher on account of firm international markets. However, overall trend in the domestic markets remain on the downside as higher sowing and above normal monsoon estimates may pressurize prices. Rupee appreciation may also pressurize prices.

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed July futures witnessed short coverings and settled 0.56% higher amidst comfortable supplies in the domestic markets and higher sowing of kharif oilseeds. Spillover effect from other oilseeds is also seen on the mustard prices. Sowing of this Rabi crop was up by 2.2% at 67.23 lakh ha in 2012-13. Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Outlook
Overall trend in mustard remain weak on account of higher supplies in the domestic markets. However, arrivals may gradually start declining with fall in the prices, thus restricting sharp downside in the prices over short term.

Technical Chart Soybean

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 01, 2013 Support 3100-3145 3396-3422 Resistance 3230-3280 3473-3498

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| July 01, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Refined soy oil July futures settled marginally higher on Saturday on account of short coverings. The spot prices however, continued with its down trend and settled 0.67% lower. Soy Oil prices had declined sharply in the last one week amidst good sowing prospects of oilseeds in the domestic markets coupled with appreciation in the Indian rupee in the last two trading session. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean. Edible oil stocks as on June 1, 2013 at various ports were estimated at 6.75 lakh tonnes and about 13 lakh tonnes are in the pipeline.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 684.60 673.00 46.42 2337 502.50 Prev day -0.67 0.28 0.04 -0.47 -0.14

as on June 29, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTJuly'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia July '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW -3.83 -2.98 -3.33 -3.87 -0.81

MoM -6.11 -5.62 -6.30 -1.48 4.21

YoY -8.64 -11.28 -8.84 -21.66 -11.16

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 684.6 673 663.8 658.05 19-Jul-13 -11.6 0 20-Aug-13 -20.8 -9.2 0 -

as on June 29, 2013 20-Sep-13 -26.55 -14.95 -5.75 0 as on June 29, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may trade lower on account of appreciation in the Rupee. However, good demand ahead of Ramadan may limit the downside and support prices at lower levels.

Crude Palm Oil

CPO traded on mixed note yesterday and settled 0.14% lower. An increase in the export tax in Indonesia supported prices while an appreciation in the Rupee pressurized prices. KLCE palm oil futures declined 0.47% on Friday amid credit concerns in China. However, strong export data and weak Ringgit capped the losses. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for July, up from 9% in June. Exports of Malaysian palm oil products in June rose 7 percent to 1,350,311 tonnes from 1,262,281 tonnes shipped during May as buyers stocked up for Ramadan that falls in July. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports hit a record high in May by jumping 47.5 percent from April. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 373,837 tonnes of refined palm oil in May. The jump in refined palm oil purchases will raise the clamour for increasing import duties to protect local oilseed growers and refiners against cheaper supplies from major exporters Indonesia and Malaysia. But the Indian government is yet to pay any heed as inflation has only just reached comfortable levels. Import of RBD palmolein touched 3,73,837 tn in May 2013, highest in any single month since edible oil imports were allowed under OGL in 1994, the Solvent Extractors Association of India said.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 30-Sept-13 Closing 502.5 499 500.8 31-Jul-13 0 31-Aug-13 -3.5 0 -

30-Sept-13 -1.7 1.8 0 NCDEX August contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX July contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
CPO prices may trade on a mixed note as Rupee appreciation may pressurize prices while increase in export tax may support prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Aug NCDEX Futures CPO MCX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 01, 2013 Support 656-660 49-495 Resistance 667-671 502-506

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| July 01, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
After futures corrected last week and settled 3.6% lower on account of good arrivals coupled with weak demand in the domestic markets. Good rains in the jeera belts have made the soil fertile for the sowing which commence in October. However, good overseas demand supported prices at lower levels. Currently, about 65-70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. Exports have been reported mainly to Singapore, Europe and Dubai. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. Jeera of Indian origin is being offered in the international market at $2,550 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13639 13190 5715 5848 Prev day -0.16 -0.75 0.00 0.69

as on June 29, 2013 % Change WoW -0.66 -3.60 2.36 -1.02 MoM 1.18 1.07 -5.29 -2.01 YoY -2.05 -2.35 55.65 43.40

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX July '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 13638.9 13190 13497.5 13812.5 19-Jul-13 -448.9 0 20-Aug-13 -141.4 307.5 0 -

as on June 29, 2013 20-Sep-13 173.6 622.5 315 0 as on June 29, 2013 19-Jul-13 133 0 20-Aug-13 231 98 0 20-Sep-13 323 190 92 0 as on June 28, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 27th June Process 1073 7390 8463 5229 NCDEX August contract 33 189 222 40

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 10,000 bags on Saturday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 5715 5848 5946 6038

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera prices may trade on a mixed note. Good overseas demand may support prices. However, good supplies may cap the upside. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 28th June 1106 7357 8463 5269 Qty in Process 0 300 300 109

Turmeric
After trading higher for the initial part of the week on account of good quality arrivals as well as overseas demand, turmeric futures corrected sharply on account of profit taking coupled with huge carryover stocks as well as good sowing of the turmeric crop. The July futures settled 1.02% lower w-o-w. Good progress of the monsoon also pressurized prices. NCDEX issued a circular whereby the earlier circular regarding modification in the tick size and lot size has been kept in abeyance. The regulator also withdrew special margins on the long side.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals in Erode and Nizamabad mandi were reported at 3,000 bags and 4,000 bags respectively on Friday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is th reported at 0.01 lakh ha as on 19 June, 2013. Sowing Production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags, lower by 40-50%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric prices may trade on a mixed note. Lower arrivals as well as fresh export enquiries may support prices. However, huge carryover stocks may pressurize prices at higher levels. Good monsoon progress, thereby prospects of good sowing may also pressurize prices.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX August contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Aug Futures Turmeric NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for July 01, 2013

Support 13300-13410 5720-5830 Resistance 13625-13730 6030-6120
Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| July 01, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar futures that declined sharply due to huge supplies and good monsoon witnessed short coverings on Saturday and settled marginally higher by 0.7%. Good monsoon progress. Also, the government said it will not consider increase in the import duty until September 2013. The recent rains in the drought affected sugarcane areas in the Southern and Western parts of the country have eased damage concerns thereby exerting downside pressure on the prices. However, good demand ahead of Ramadan as well as concerns about cane output in the coming season due to drought conditions in Maharashtra last year limited the downside. According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 44.55 lakh ha as compared to 46.78 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX July '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE July '13 Fut `/qtl 2993 `/qtl 502.3 $/tonne 364.00 $/tonne -0.55 -1.08 0.07 Last 3057

as on June 29, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.24 -0.03 -0.60 1.17 -2.15 MoM -0.50 -0.86 5.39 -2.03 YoY 1.89 3.89 -16.17 -22.77

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3056.6 2993 3045 3091 19-Jul-13 -63.6 0 20-Aug-13 -11.6 52 0 -

as on June 29, 2013 20-Sep-13 34.4 98 46 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. According to ISMA, Indias Sugar production between October-April stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3 percent during the same period last year. Maharashtras production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at higher against the domestic consumption of around 22.5 mln tn for 2012-13.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 28th June 2448 7750 1022 1228 12448 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0 Stocks as on 27th June 2198 7600 1022 1228 12048

as on June 28, 2013 Qty in Process 250 150 0 0 400

Global Sugar Updates

Liffe Sugar as well as ICE Sugar futures settled 1.08% and 0.55% lower on Friday on the back of huge deliveries for the July expiry. Prices gained earlier this week as heavy rains in Brazil halted harvesting. Reports of continued showers this week may delay the crushing further. As per the local weather forecaster Somar, heavier than expected rains have halted cane harvesting for seven days for some mills across centersouth Brazil in June, the world's biggest sugar producing region. Prices have declined sharply over the past few months and touched three years low last week due to three back to back years of sugar surplus coupled with supplies from Brazil. Brazils cane industry association, Unica, projects main center-south sugar cane crop will produce a record 35.5 mn tn of sugar in the 2013/14 season, higher by 4.1% compared to 34.1 mn tn last year. However, Unica reported a fall in the output in the second half of May due to late rains in Brazil and a shift towards ethanol production.

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX August contract

Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar futures may continue with its downward trend as good rains in the cane growing regions as well as the government not increasing import duties may keep prices under check.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Aug NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for July 01, 2013 Support 3030-3036 Resistance 3049-3055

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Commodities Daily Report

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Monday| July 01, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas declined on Saturday on account of a sharp appreciation in the Rupee on Friday. Higher cotton planting this season along with good monsoon also pressurized prices. However, MCX Cotton witnessed short coverings as demand for cotton from yarn manufacturers remains strong. The CCEA has increased the MSP of Cotton by `100 to `3,700/qtl for medium staple and `4,000/qtl for long staple. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the seaosn (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) is reported at 318.62, down 2.2 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1052.5 19330 82.71 91.3

as on June 29, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.75 -2.64 0.26 -0.51 -0.51 -2.87 0.22 -1.14 MoM YoY -2.64 #N/A 6.33 20.51 1.58 17.65 1.33 13.70
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19330 19940 19940 28-Jun-13 0

as on June 29, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 610 0 610 0 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has been reported at 55.76 lakh ha as against 31.38 lakh ha during the same period last year. Cotton acreage has seen a significant jump over last year in Gujarat, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh, while the planting is over in the Northern States of Punjab and Haryana.

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
th

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total Stocks as on 28th June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400

as on June 28, 2013

Stocks as on 27rd June 12300 5900 117900 24300 900 100 161400 NCDEX April contract

Global Cotton Updates

Cotton futures continued to decline on higher than expected planting in US. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17 percent from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates. Concerns over the economic health of China, the world's top textile market have pressurized prices. ICE Futures U.S. certified stocks are at three-year highs of 600,000 bales. But almost a fifth of that total was already slated to be delivered against the nearby contract when it expires on July 9. (Reuters). This is Large enough to deplete swelling exchange stocks 20 percent or more, and tighten supplies heading into the new 2013/14 crop year. Rains in West Texas raised cotton prospects in top US cotton producing state last week which exerted downside pressure on the prices. A U.S. crop report released this week showed continued delays for new cotton crop, adding to a sense of tightness in upcoming U.S. supplies.

Technical Chart - Kapas

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX July contract

Outlook
Cotton may decline tracing higher planting figures and strong Rupee. However, fresh export enquiries for cotton and yarn may support prices at lower levels. Higher MSP may also support prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX July Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for July 01, 2013 Support 1042-1047 18880-19060 Resistance 1058-1065 19410-19570
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Monday| July 01, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum July Futures recovered on Saturday as farmers held back stocks on hopes of better prices. Since the resumption of Guarseed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX July 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX July13 Fut `/qtl 6810 `/qtl 19917 `/qtl 19560 `/qtl 1.09 2.02 1.64 Last Prev day 7071 2.64

as on June 29, 2013 % change WoW -9.01 -10.04 -9.25 -10.81 MoM -19.62 -19.88 -24.21 -24.97 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing

IMD in its second long range forecast predicted monsoon in Northwest India to be 94 percent of the Long Period Average (LPA) The southwest monsoon has covered the entire country, four weeks ahead of schedule and the earliest on record. The major guar growing states in India are Rajasthan, Haryana, and Gujarat. Sowing in the irrigated areas takes place during early June while in the rain fed areas it starts with the onset of monsoon in July. Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 7071.45 6810 5710 5630 19-Jul-13 -261.45 0 -

as on June 29, 2013 20-Aug-13 -1361.45 -1100 0 20-Sep-13 -1441.45 -1180 -80 0 as on June 29, 2013 20-Aug-13 -2917.2 -2560 0 20-Sep-13 -3397.2 -3040 -480 0 as on June 28, 2013 Stocks as on 27thJune 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 19917.2 19560 17000 16520 19-Jul-13 -357.2 0 -

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Stocks as on 28th June 59 81 Qty in Process 0 0

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar prices may continue to decline today as Supply side fundamentals remain strong to cater the domestic and overseas demand which may exert downside pressure on the prices at higher levels. Good sowing may also add to the downside pressure. However, a prediction of below normal rains in Northwest India may support prices in the near term. However, it is too early to predict the same as monsoon progress so far is smooth.

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 01, 2013

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

Support 5490-5600 5460-5570 16380-16650 16350-16620 Resistance 5850-5980 5830-5960 17340-17660 17310-17630

NCDEX October contract

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com