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Oil, ecotourism and climate change: The political economy of Newfoundland, 1992-2010

Political economy report April 2012 Stephanie Sodero, Memorial University

In preparation for: Dr. Mark Stoddart, Memorial University for the SSHRC-funded project Puffins, kayaks and oil rigs: Shifting modes of society-environment interaction on the Newfoundland coast

Table of Contents List of Tables and Figures Introduction Oil Energy Plan Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board Offshore facilities Economic impact C-NLOPB environmental mandate Environmental assessment Oil spills Terra Nova spill Reporting Ecotourism Economic diversification Department of Tourism Culture and Recreation Economic impact Uncommon Potential Marketing DTCR on environment Mobility Mobility trends Negative environmental impacts National Geographic partnership Climate Change Emission profile Impacts and adaptation Climate change and coastal areas Climate change and tourism Climate change and transport Office of Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Emissions Trading Climate Change Action Plan 2011 Future Research Conclusion References 2 3

4 4 5 5 7 7 10 11 12

13 13 14 15 15 16 17 18 18 19

20 22 22 23 23 23 24 26 27 28

List of Tables and Figures Table 1 Figure 1 2 Title Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose Production Statistics Title Newfoundland and Labrador offshore oil production (millions of barrels) Predicted maximum extent of oil plume trajectory in relation to Old Harry exploration license Number of annual reported oil spills in the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore oil and gas sector, 1997-2010 Volume of annual reported oil spills in the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore oil and gas sector, 1997-2010 (litres) Volume of annual reported oil spills in the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore oil and gas sector, 1997-2010, excluding 2004 and 2007 (litres) Total non-resident visitors to Newfoundland and Labrador, 1992-2010 Total non-resident tourist expenditures in Newfoundland and Labrador, 1992-2010 ($ millions) Annual non-resident visitation and expenditures by mode of travel, Newfoundland and Labrador: 1992-2010 Total annual greenhouse gas emissions in Newfoundland and Labrador, 1990-2009 (kt CO2 equivalent) Total annual greenhouse gas emission per capita in Newfoundland and Labrador, 19902009 (kt CO2 equivalent) Total annual greenhouse gas emission per capita in Newfoundland and Labrador in the oil and gas and transportation sectors, 1990-2009 (kt CO2 equivalent) Total annual greenhouse gas emissions in Newfoundland, Alberta and British Columbia, 2007 (Megatonnes) 6 9 6

10

4a

11

4b

11

5 6

14 15

18

20

20

10

21

11

22

Introduction The year of the cod moratorium marks a turning point in the political economy of Newfoundland and Labrador. From the 1600s to 1992, fisheries were a key component of Newfoundlands economy. Since 1992, two prominent strategies have been concertedly pursued to diversify Newfoundlands economy: extractive development in the form of the oil and gas sector and attractive development in the form of tourism, specifically ecotourism (Luke, 2002). This report explores the paradoxical pursuit of both extractive and attractive development in Newfoundland and Labrador. Specifically, this report outlines the political economy of the oil and gas sector, ecotourism sector and provincial climate change policy between 1992 and 2010, identifying areas for future research. The oil and gas sector contributes significantly to the provincial Gross Domestic Product, 27 per cent, compared to less than five per cent in the tourism sector. However, the tourism industry is an employment engine, directly employing 13,000 citizens, compared to about 3,000 in the oil and gas sector (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2012b; Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010; Higgins, 2009). Both sectors, therefore, are important to the provincial economy. Similarly, both sectors are embedded in a petrocapitalist network: the oil and gas sector through the mining of fossil fuels, and the ecotourism sector as part of a global, fossil-fuel dependent mobility network. In 2005, fossil fuel industries contributed 22 per cent of provincial emissions, while the transport sector, including freight and passenger, contributed 37 per cent (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2007: 51). Such models of development are at odds with provincial commitments to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions that cause climate change. Further, the oil and gas sector poses a risk to the ecotourism sector in the form of oil spills. These tensions are explored throughout the report.

Oil Energy Plan In 2007, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador published an Energy Plan titled, Focusing Our Energy:
Newfoundland and Labrador is blessed with rich and diverse natural resources. Few jurisdictions in North America can match the immense value of our vast energy warehouse of oil, gas, hydro, wind and other energy sources. The one and only responsible way to ensure we are properly prepared to seize every opportunity for maximum economic benefit from these resources is to move forward on the basis of a comprehensive, long-term strategic Energy Plan for our province (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2007: n.p.).

The 100-page document outlines the available renewable and non-renewable resources in the provinces energy warehouse and their economic potential (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2007: 6). In 2007, the province was expected to produce almost 45 per cent of Canadas conventional, light crude oil and generate 12 per cent of Canadas hydroelectricity (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2007: 2). These contributions are projected to grow as resources are further developed. In addition, the document commits the province to a provincial greenhouse gas emission target of 10 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020 (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2007). This goal corresponds with the intergovernmental New England Governors- Eastern Canadian Premiers (NEG/ECP) target, though is less ambitious than Canadas Kyoto target of 6 per cent below 1990 levels by 2012. The Energy Plan acknowledges the tension between pursuing oil and gas development and meeting provincial climate change commitments, integrating references to the provinces 2005 Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP): The CCAP acknowledges the inextricable link between the production and use of energy and the emissions of greenhouse gases (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2007: 83). However, the Energy Plan neatly reconciles the conflicting agendas:
We will continue to pursue the development of our oil and gas resources and use proceeds from these projects to support the development of renewable energy infrastructure that will enable us to have a sustainable clean-energy future. At the same time, we will promote and facilitate increased energy efficiency throughout the provinces economy. We will also maintain strict environmental rules to minimize impacts on the environment from energy developments (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2007: 50).

The province will maximize revenue from oil and gas sector development, and then use this fiscal foundation to develop clean energy. The document states that Newfoundland and Labrador has the potential to replace greenhouse gas-emitting energy sources with our clean hydroelectricity and wind, both here at home and in the North American marketplace and aims to do so by 2020 (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2007: 2).While such a strategy has an internal logic, it is at odds with evidence produced by the scientific community indicating the necessity of immediate emission reductions in order alleviate cumulative climate change impacts. Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB) was established in 1986 as part of the Atlantic Accord, a revenue-sharing agreement between the Government of Canada and the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador. It is the regulatory body 4

responsible for worker safety; environmental protection and safety; effective management of land tenure; maximum hydrocarbon recovery and value; and, Canada/Newfoundland & Labrador benefits (C-NLOPB, 2012a; C-NLOPB, 2012b; C-NLOPB, 2012c). The Board regulates a variety of licenses, including exploratory, significant discovery and production licenses, for a 7.4 million hectare area, an area of about two-thirds of the size of the island portion of the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador (C-NLOPB, 2012b). The C-NLOPB is an arms-length organization, reporting to the federal and provincial Natural Resources Ministers (C-NLOPB, 2012b). Its approximately 70 employees are guided by the vision: Regulating for Future Generations (C-NLOPB, 2012a). In 2009/10, the C-NLOPB had a budget of $17.6 million, of which $11.3 was allocated to operating costs and the remaining $6.3 million was allocated to special projects, such as the Offshore Helicopter Safety Inquiry (C-NLOPB, 2010: 6). In 2009/10, collected bids on four offshore parcels totaled $47 million, exploration commitments totaled $882 million, and security deposits were valued at $220 million (C-NLOPB, 2010: 30). In terms of expenses, fees totaling $6 million were remitted to the Receiver General for Canada; since 1986, the C-NLOPB has collected $164 million on behalf of the Crown (C-NLOPB, 2010: 28-9). Offshore facilities There are three production facilities offshore Newfoundland and Labrador: Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose (C-NLOPB, 2012d). All three fields are located southeast of St. Johns in the ecologically rich Grand Banks (Higgins, 2011). Of the three sites, Hibernia is the largest, producing 47 million barrels (Mmbls) in 2009/10, while White Rose is the smallest, producing 19 million barrels in the same year (Table 1). Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose are expected to produce oil for 20, 15 and 10 years respectively; Hibernia is projected to be in production until 2017, Terra Nova until 2012, and White Rose until 2020 (Higgins, 2009). A fourth field is currently being considered for development. The Hebron project is proposed by ExxonMobil and would be located in the same area as Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose. Second only to Hibernia, Hebron has estimated reserves of 700 million barrels (Higgins, 2009). It is estimated that Hebron will create 3,500 jobs during the construction and production phases, and contribute $20 billion in royalties and other revenues to the province. Pending C-NLOPB approval, it is scheduled to begin production in 2017 and be in production for 25 years (CBC, 2012; Higgins, 2009). A fifth proposed field, Old Harry, is located off the west coast of Newfoundland and is in the preliminary assessment stages Economic impact From 1997, when Hibernia went into production, to 2007, the three oil fields produced 867 million barrels of oil, worth approximately $46 billion (Higgins, 2009). In 1997, the contribution of the mining and oil extraction industries to the provincial Gross Domestic Product was $823 million, peaking at $5.9 billion in 2007, and reaching $4.7 billion in 2010 (2002 dollars) (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2012b). The oil and gas sector accounts for significant share of Newfoundland and Labradors Gross Domestic Product: 13 per cent in 1999, 24 per cent in 2004, 35 per cent in 2007 and 27 per cent in 2010 (Higgins, 2009; Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2012b). These values parallel total offshore production volumes (Figure 1). By comparison, in 2010 the energy sector accounted for 26 per cent and five per cent of Alberta and British Colombias Gross Domestic Product respectively (Government of Alberta, 2012; Government of British Columbia, 2012). In 2007, 1.3 per cent of Newfoundland and Labradors labour force (2,851 workers) were directly employed by the oil and gas sector, the majority of which were from the province (Higgins, 2009). It is estimated that the sector indirectly employs 3.8 per cent of the work force when spin-offs are calculated (Higgins, 2009). In 2009, the province accounted for 1.5 per cent of the national population and generated 5

approximately 1.5 per cent ($19.6 billion) of Canadas total Gross Domestic Product (Environment Canada, 2009). In 2007, Newfoundland and Labrador produced 41 per cent of Canadas light and medium crude oil and 14 per cent of Canadas total crude oil (Environment Canada, 2009). Table 1: Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose Production Statistics (C-NLOPB, 2010)
Field Producer Discovered Entered Production Annual Production 2009/10 (Mmbls) Average Daily Production 2009/10 (Barrels) 130,000 Total estimated reserves (Mmbls) Total production to date

Hibernia

Hibernia Management and Development Company Ltd. Suncor Energy Inc. Husky Oil

1979

1997

47

1,244

680

Terra Nova White Rose

1984

2002

28

76,012

419

294

1984

2005

19

51,957

305

142

Figure 1: Newfoundland and Labrador offshore oil production (Millions of barrels) (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2012a)

C-NLOPB environmental mandate The C-NLOPB states that while the legislation does not prioritize these mandates, worker safety and environmental protection will be paramount in all Board decisions (C-NLOPB, 2012c). Regarding its environmental responsibility, the C-NLOPB has three main roles:
To verify that operators assess and provide for effects of the environment on the safety of their operations. To verify that operators perform an environmental assessment pursuant to Canadian regulations, of the effects of their operations on the environment, and prepare a plan and provide for mitigation where appropriate. To verify, through compliance actions, that operators comply with their environmental plans (C-NLOPB, 2012c).

It is notable that the first role listed is to protect the oil operations from the effects of the environment. This refers to the threat posed to oil platforms by icebergs. However, nowhere on the CNLOPB site is a connection made between fossil fuel consumption, climate change and iceberg formation. The C-NLOPB states that it
reviews proposals for all physical activities offshore -- from seismic surveys to production projects -- to identify their potential effects upon the natural environment or upon other users of that environment (such as the fishery). It also evaluates measures that are proposed to prevent or mitigate these effects. This activity includes reviewing operators' contingency plans for environmental emergencies --especially oil spills-- to ensure that adequate response measures, people and equipment are in place in the event of an accident (emphasis added) (CNLOPB, 2012e).

Reference to the fisheries sector raises the question of whether potential impacts on the tourism sector, particularly ecotourism, are considered in C-NLOPB project reviews. The C-NLOPB lists among its operational duties:
Waste treatment and compliance monitoring equipment and procedures; Offshore chemical selection and management procedures; Waste management plans; Field programs to detect effects upon the natural environment; Compensation programs for those affected by accidental events; and Exercises and drills of environmental emergency response plans (C-NLOPB, 2012e).

Again, further areas for research include learning more about the field detection programs and the history of compensation awarded to those affected by accidental events. Environmental assessment The C-NLOPB requires the completion of environmental assessments, in accordance with federal regulations, for proposed projects. An environmental impact assessment determines the potential impact of a proposed project on a range of Valued Environmental Components (VECs), such as species at risk, marine ecosystems and commercial fisheries (Stantec, 2011: i). In 2011, an environmental assessment was conducted for the proposed Old Harry site, located 80 kilometres west of Cape Anguille. A search for the term touris* (where * denotes a wild card 7

character) generated three matches in the 426-page report, all relating to animals. The first addresses the wolffish and determines that development impacts on the species are minimal:
Impact of incidental capture of wolffish in many fisheries is thought to be the leading cause of human induced mortality. However, the live release of spotted and northern wolffish mitigates the affect of incidental capture to some degree. Other potential sources of harm (habitat alteration, oil exploration and production, pollution, shipping, cables and lines, military activities, ecotourism and scientific research) are considered to have negligible impacts on the ability of both spotted and northern wolffish to survive and recover (Kulka et al. 2004a) (emphasis added) (Stantec, 2011: 94).

In contrast, the beluga whale is vulnerable to a myriad of risks, including oil and gas development and ecotourism:
Current threats to the beluga population included long-term contaminant exposure, marine traffic, marine life observations (including ecotourism activities), noise (included noise associated with offshore oil and gas activities, marine traffic, fisheries and ecotourism and recreation), reduced prey abundance (due to overfishing, habitat degradation, pollution, barriers to migration and climate change), predator competition, commercial fisheries competition, habitat degradation (construction and dredging, hydroelectric projects, offshore oil and gas) and the introduction of exotic species. Current threats to individual belugas were identified as ship strikes, entanglement in fishing gear and scientific research. Occasional or sporadic threats were identified as toxic spills, harmful algal blooms, and epizootic disease. Under toxic spills it was noted that oil exploration and development can considerably increase the risk of accidents and spills in the Gulf (Kingston 2005) and that given the relatively limited habitat available in the St. Lawrence Estuary and Gulf, a large oil spill poses a serious risk for the beluga population (emphasis added) (Stantec, 2011: 115).

In this excerpt, multiple threats, including oil and gas development, oil spills, ecotourism and climate change are listed, indicating the presence of significant environmental stressors for the beluga population. Lastly, a more general statement connecting marine birds to tourism is made:
The Gulf hosts a range of seabirds throughout the year. Seabirds are a key ecosystem component near the top of the food chain and are an important resource for tourism and recreational activities, as well as for scientific study. They are therefore important socially, culturally, economically, aesthetically, ecologically and scientifically. Marine birds are considered a VEC [Valued Environmental Components] due to regulatory concern and in recognition of their protected status under the Migratory Birds Convention Act, 1994 (emphasis added) (Stantec, 2011: 210).

Sea birds are acknowledged as an important tourism resource. The reference to climate change in the beluga whale assessment is one of only two references to climate change in the document. The other is a reference to greenhouse gas emissions: The drilling rig would correspond to less than 0.2 percent of the greenhouse gas emissions for Newfoundland and Labrador (based on 2003 greenhouse gas emissions data) (Stantec, 2011: 25). Flaring, a component of

the oil production process that is greenhouse gas intensive, is not referenced in the report. More substantial discussion is allocated to the risk of small, medium and large oil spills:
Based on modeling conducted by SL Ross the maximum extent of an oil spill that originates at the well site could extend up to 20 km from the point of origin of the spill, which is approximately 50 km away from the closest Newfoundland coast, approximately 70 km from the closest Nova Scotia coast and approximately 75 km away from the closest Magdalen Islands coast As the Study Area was delineated to incorporate supply vessel and helicopter routing to and from Newfoundland, there is also potential for a batch spill to originate from a supply vessel at any point along the route. The worst case-scenario would be a collision / sinking close to shore that resulted in the loss of oil and diesel fuel (Stantec, 2011: 312).

While the spill volume for such a scenario is not specified, a map of the maximum extent of the plume trajectory is provided (Figure 2). It is unclear to what degree wave action could result in greater dispersion. Figure 2: Predicted maximum extent of oil plume trajectory in relation to Old Harry exploration license (Stantec, 2011: 42).

However, citing global oil spill rates, the report determines that the chance of an oil spill, especially a medium or large spill occurring is unlikely (Stantec, 2011: 343). The 2004 Terra Nova spill, the largest in Newfoundland and Labradors history, is not referenced. The report concludes with the following statement regarding voluntary monitoring and followup activities:
A follow-up program is discretionary, not mandatory, for a screening-level environmental assessment. Potential follow-up and monitoring that could be applied to this Project include the following: There is no follow-up and monitoring recommended for marine fish (at-risk and not-at-risk), shellfish and fish habitat. Routine checks will be done for stranded birds that may have been attracted to vessel lighting. Corridor will use a Marine Mammal Observer during the drilling program. In the unlikely event of an oil spill, an EEM [Emergency Environmental Plan] program will be designed as part of Corridors Emergency Response Plan. During the VSP [Vertical Seismic Profile] program, a qualified observer will be used, whom will be capable of liaising with the fishing industry.

Any fluid losses will be reported to the C-NLOPB and the Canadian Coast Guard and any seabird mortalities will be recorded by the on-board observer(s) (emphasis added) (Stantec, 2011: 343).

Overall, discussion of both tourism and climate change are minimal. Cumulative impacts, such as exemplified by the various stresses experienced by beluga whales, are largely disregarded in the final assessment. Oil spills Data on oil spills in Newfoundland and Labrador is available from 1997 to 2010. Within the span of 14 years, 436 spills totaling 435,183 litres occurred (Figures 3, 4a and 4b). The 2004 Terra Nova spill accounts for 39 per cent of the total spill volume. Spill activity in 2009 and 2010 is minimal. In 2009/10, 16 of 25 petroleum spills reported were less than one litre in volume (C-NLOPB, 2010). Total spill volume amounted to 278 litres, a small quantity given that 94 million barrels of oil were produced by Hibernia, Terra Nova and White Rose during the year. This suggests that spill prevention practices are stringent and effective, and/or that there may be underreporting of actual spill activity. Further information about the spills, in terms of extent, environmental impact and oil recovery is not provided on the C-NLOPB website and prove a valuable area for future research. Figure 3: Number of annual reported oil spills in the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore oil and gas sector, 1997-2010 (C-NLOPB, 2011)
60 50 40 30 20 10 0
1 997 1 998 1 999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201 0

10

Figure 4a: Volume of annual reported oil spills in the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore oil and gas sector, 1997-2010 (litres) (C-NLOPB, 2011)
300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0
1 997 1 998 1 999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 201 0

Figure 4b: Volume of annual reported oil spills in the Newfoundland and Labrador offshore oil and gas sector, 1997-2010, excluding 2004 and 2007 (litres) (C-NLOPB, 2011)
35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2008 2009 2010

Terra Nova spill In November 2004, a mechanical failure on the Terra Nova rig, operated by Suncor Energy Inc., resulted in Newfoundland and Labradors largest oil spill. In total, 1,038 barrels (170,000 litres) were spilled (Suncor, 2012). By comparison, the 1989 Exxon Valdez spill was 260,000 barrels and the 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill in the Gulf of Mexico was 4.9 million barrels. The Terra Nova spill extended over an area of 793 square kilometres and was estimated to put 10,000 to 16,000 seabirds at risk (Wilhelm et al., 2006). Oiled birds were found on the southeastern shore of Newfoundland in the weeks following the spill (Jones, 2012). Conducting a scan of media coverage of the oil spill, particularly wildlife impacts, would provide an interesting area for future research. In 2005, charges were laid against Suncors parent company, Petro-Canada, by the C-NLOPB. In 2006 Petro-Canada paid a total of $290,000 through the federal Environmental Damages Fund ($279 per barrel) (Jones, 2012). By comparison, Exxon was originally charged $287 million for damages 11

($1,103 per barrel) and $5 billion for punitive damages ($19,231/barrel), though the punitive damages were appealed. The Suncor Energy Inc. website provides a brief summary of lessons learned:
We have learned many lessons from this event. Following the incident, we went through an extensive investigation and identified the root cause of the oily water discharge, as well as any contributing factors. Enhanced equipment technologies have been put in place to prevent such a discharge again. Additionally, those systems have manual back up-operators perform hourly visual inspections of the systems (Suncor, 2012).

Aside from 2004, the second largest spill volume occurred in 2007. Recent spill volumes have been much smaller. It would be worthwhile to explore the factors that account for this decline. Reporting Given the event of an oil spill, an incident bulletin is posted on the C-NLOPB website. In 2011, 20 bulletins were issued, of which four related to spills, eight to helicopter travel and eight to other issues. An example of spill bulletin includes the following issued on October 13, 2011:
C-NLOPB Responding to SBM Spill from GSF Grand Banks Husky Energy reported a loss of approximately 600 litres of Synthetic Based Mud (SBM or Drilling Fluid) from the GSF Grand Banks to the sea. The spill occurred during normal drilling operations. Husky Energy reported that a small amount of discoloration of the water from SBM was noticed on the surface for approximately 3-4 minutes before being dispersed by wave motion. Drilling operations have been suspended and Husky Energy is investigating the cause.

The C-NLOPB reports that it intends to follow up with Husky Energy (C-NLOPB, 2012e). Areas for future research could involve identifying the nature of C-NLOPB follow up activities and how frequently C-NLOPB incident bulletins are reported in the popular media.

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Ecotourism Economic diversification From 1992 to 2010, developing the tourism sector was identified as a key strategy for diversifying Newfoundland and Labradors economic base. The 1992 discussion paper, New Adventures for Growth, compiled by the Adventure Tourism Working Group of the Economic Recovery Commission states:
In 1990, the Economic Recovery Commission initiated a project to examine the provinces potential to develop new employment in sectors of our economy that present opportunities for growth outside our established resource industries (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 1992: i).

The economic sectors identified were adventure tourism, as well as: aquaculture, cultural industries, crafts and home based/micro industries, energy efficiency and alternative energy, environmental industries, export services, information industries, innovative technology and manufacturing (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 1992: i). The report continues:
Underlying this philosophy is the belief that we not only can, but must, learn to excel in new areas of economic activity if NL and Lab is to improve its current situation. With the traditional wealth-producing natural resource industries having reached their limits for new employment creation, our future prosperity as a society is inexorably linked to our ability to take full advantage of the worlds demands for a growing diversity of goods and services (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 1992: ii).

Interestingly, while the need for economic diversification is emphasized, there is little mention of the 1992 moratorium on cod fishing, a significant impetus for diversification. The only specific reference to the moratorium in provincial tourism strategies during this period is in a 1993-1998 Tourism Marketing Plan:
The closure of the Northern Cod fishery may have a negative impact on resident travel and may result in the province being perceived as a poorer province and therefore less attractive to the tourist (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 1993: 7).

The lack of direct mention of the cod moratorium may signal a form of discursive black boxing, or may be indicative of a cultural permeation of the social fact of the moratorium, that is, it underlies all political-economic discourses and therefore does not need to be explicitly referenced. Department of Tourism Culture and Recreation The vision of the Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Tourism Culture and Recreation (DCTR) is of:
a province that is a tourism destination of choice, with superior and authentic visitor experiences, a robust cultural identity, natural and cultural resources that are protected and sustained, creativity in the arts that is fostered and recognized, cultural industries that are strong and vibrant, and an active, healthy population participating in physical activity, recreation and sport at all levels for quality of life and improved health (emphasis added) (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2012d).

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Within DCTR, there are three tourism divisions: Tourism Marketing, Tourism Product Development and Tourism Research (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2012e). The departmental budget increased more than ten-fold from 1997 to 2011, from $5 million to $61 million in 2011/12 (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011: 5; Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 1997: iii). Marketing is strategic departmental focus; the DTCR marketing budget was doubled between 2003 and 2010 from $6 million to $13 million. Economic impact The provinces goal is to create a sustainable tourism sector that taps into our growth potential and delivers maximum economic, social, and cultural value (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009: 25). Newfoundland and Labrador was named one of the top new and undiscovered travel destinations on several key travel lists from industry leaders like Lonely Planet and Fodors (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009: 18). Such designations, combined with DTCR marketing campaigns and other measures, are attributed to the increasing economic impact of tourism. Between 1997 and 2011, non-resident visits increased by 14 per cent (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011a: 12; Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010b). In 1992, 264,000 non-residents visited Newfoundland, spending $127 million (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010: 1). By 2010, 518,500 non-residents visited, spending $411 million and surpassing its population for the first time (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010; Target, 2012) (Figures 5 and 6). The total economic impact is larger. For example, in 2007, nonresidents spent $357 million, while the total economic spin-off was $790 million with over 12,000 direct tourism jobs created, making tourism one of the provinces greatest economic drivers; the tourism sector accounts for about five per cent of the provinces Gross Domestic Product. (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009: 8). In 2010, the tourism industry contributed $850 million (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009: 17). In addition, in-province tourism by residents accounts for more than half of tourism spending, much of which occurs outside of the peak season (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009: 13). Figure 5: Total non-resident visitors to Newfoundland and Labrador, 1992-2010 (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010a)
600,000 500,000 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0

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Figure 6: Total non-resident tourist expenditures in Newfoundland and Labrador, 1992-2010 ($ millions) (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010a)
$450.00 $400.00 $350.00 $300.00 $250.00 $200.00 $150.00 $100.00 $50.00 $0.00

While visitor rates are increasing, the number of people employed directly by the tourism industry remains high, but stable. In 1991, approximately 12,000 people were employed in the tourism sector during peak season (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 1992). In 2010, 13,000 people were employed (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010). Uncommon Potential In 2009, the province in cooperation with the tourism industry, released Uncommon Potential: A Vision for Newfoundland and Labrador Tourism. This is a flagship document that provides:
a blueprint for extraordinary growth. It addresses the real and perceptual barriers facing our industry with innovative strategies and actions. And it challenges us to come together as entrepreneurs, industry partners, and Government to grow our industry to new heights: to double the annual tourism revenue in Newfoundland and Labrador by 2020 (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009: 8).

Following the release of Uncommon Potential, the Newfoundland and Labrador Tourism Board was established. The 12 positions on the private/public Board are equally divided between representatives of the tourism industry, government and Destination Marketing Organizations (regional non-profit organizations responsible for pursuing marketing opportunities) (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009: 26). The Board is responsible for implementing the vision for tourism outlined in the document, and specifically for developing and implementing a plan to achieve tourism revenues of $1.6 billion by 2020 (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009: 11). Beyond private public leadership, six other strategic directions are listed: a sustainable transportation network, market intelligence and research strategy, product development, tourism technology, brand marketing and workforce development. Objectives listed in Uncommon Potential include maximizing non-resident visitation, encouraging travel throughout the province and promoting multi-season travel (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011: i). Marketing The Find Yourself Here marketing campaign was launched in 2006 and to date has received 130 industry awards (Target, 2012). The ongoing campaign is fully integrated [featuring] national 15

television, in-flight, newspaper, online, digital and social marketing, and strategic partnerships (Target, 2012). Ten themes are highlighted, including: Ancient Land, Cape St. Marys, Explore Winter, Iceberg Alley, Iceberg Viewing, Secret Place, 16 Feet of Snow, 5,000 km of Trails, 10,000 Whales and 29,000 Kms of Coastline (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2012c). Notably, hunting and fishing are not referenced in the thematic areas of the Find Yourself Here campaign, nor in Uncommon Potential. By contrast, hunting and fishing are central to earlier DCTR strategies. Tourism Towards 2000, published in 1992, states that
Non-resident big game hunters are one of the largest per capita tourism revenue generators. This segment of the industry contributes $8 to $10 million annually to the provincial economy, generates approximately $500,000 in license fees, provides in excess of 700 seasonal jobs for guides, cook and camp helpers and is comprised of 112 outfitters operating 176 camps (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 1992: iii).

Similarly, the 1993-1998 Tourism Marketing Plan identifies hunting and fishing product as one of five components of a marketing plan; the other components include touring, outdoor adventure, cruise ship and business travel (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 1993: 41). It would be interesting to trace this shift away from hunting promotion, and related implications, in the context of both the framing of Newfoundland as an ecotourism destination and to contention around sealing practices. DTCR on environment The prominence of the environment fluctuates in various DTCR documents. For example, environmental issues are more prominent in the 2008 Strategic Plan than in the 2011 Strategic Plan. In earlier documents, site-specific environmental issues, such as litter, are raised, while the first reference to global climate change is in 2009. Generally, environmental values are reflected in aspirational statements, but not incorporated into objectives and actions. More recent references to the environment reflect tensions between the status quo and a lower carbon future. For example, Uncommon Potential states that, Climate change has emerged as a significant environmental concern and travellers are becoming more conscientious of their footprint (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009: 16). While there is a desire for tourism mobility on the part of both the tourists and government, there is also recognition that travel modes rely on fossil fuels. Similarly, a link between the provinces simultaneous development of the ecotourism and oil and gas sector is cursorily acknowledged, Developed carefully, tourism can be a sustainable industry with far-reaching economic, social, and cultural benefits. It has the ability to further generate substantial economic returns long after non-renewable resources have been extracted from our province (emphasis added) (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009: 17). While such observations acknowledge a paradigm shift, the shift is positioned as temporally distant. In addition, the suggested environmental actions listed in Uncommon Potential are soft voluntary educational measures:
Adopt an environmental code of conduct to guide all elements of tourism development. Work with the tourism sector to ensure businesses have the capability and knowledge to take an active role in protecting and enhancing the environment. Implement an awareness, education, and incentive program that support environmental sustainability. Attract travellers who share our values of respecting our social, cultural, and environmental surroundings (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009: 35).

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Similarly, the 2011-2014 Strategic Plan, simultaneously reflects contemporary environmental thinking, through reference to the precautionary approach, while also reflecting a traditional paradigm of environmental and economic concerns as oppositional:
We believe in managing now for the future, to protect and sustain the health, diversity and productivity of our rich natural environment and distinctive culture, for the benefit of present and future generations. In this, we recognize that our knowledge of our natural and cultural heritage is as yet incomplete, which leads us to apply a precautionary approach to heritage management and conservation. We take a balanced approach to preserving the provinces past and protecting our cultural resources, and the need to create jobs and develop economic opportunities (emphasis added) (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011: 9).

Environmental and economic objectives are viewed as mutually exclusive. While environmental concerns are raised, economic development is prioritized. Mobility Mobility is a core theme in DTCR strategies from 1992 to 2010:
The reality is that it takes deliberate planning and determined effort to visit here. For Newfoundland and Labrador, theres no such thing as an accidental tourist. Travel distance, travel time, travel cost, and travel access are significant barriers for visitors, and a major competitive disadvantage for our industry (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009: 17).

This is, in fact, part of the of the appeal of the province for increasingly sophisticated and experienced travellers seeking more unusual places and experiences off the beaten track (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009: 18). Such a perspective on mobility was also presented in New Adventures for Growth, a 1992 strategy focused on the development of the adventure tourism sector. Amongst the provinces assets are its close proximity to natural attractions: icebergs, tundra, whales, spawning capelin, major seabird colonies, seal herds, woodland caribou, and pristine wilderness areas can all be enjoyed relatively near to major population centres. This ease of access to major and varied resources is a significant competitive advantage (emphasis added) (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 1992: 7). However, the dominant theme related to mobility in provincial tourism documents is difficulty of access. For example, this theme permeates the Tourism Marketing Plan 1993-1998. The Plan lists strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats in the provincial tourism sector. Of the eight strengths, two relate to transport: increased ferry capacity offered by the MV Caribou and the Joseph and Clara Smallwood, and improved road, rail and air links with Western Labrador (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 1993: 6). Three of the 13 weaknesses relate to mobility, including complaints about the ferry service, insufficient overseas airline capacity and the environmental impact of ATVs (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 1993: 6). Of the 16 opportunities, five relate to improved air transport connections and one to improved road transport in Labrador. Of the ten threats, two refer to the high cost of travel to the province (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 1993: 7). More recent recommendations to improve access to the province echo these themes, ranging from major infrastructure improvements, such as improving air and ferry access, to improving road signage and increasing car rental capacity (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009: 29).

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Mobility trends The main modes of access to the province are air, car/ferry and cruise ship. Air travel rates are increasing steadily, while car travel rates have largely remained stable. Cruise travel started in 2002 and, relative to air and car travel, is minimal. In 2009, air travel accounted for approximately two-thirds of non-resident visits, while access by land and sea (e.g. cars, buses, ferries and cruise ships) accounted for the remainder (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009: 28) (Figure 7). While air travellers constitute the largest modal share, they visit for a shorter period of time: an average of nine nights, while land and sea travelers stay for 14 nights. Figure 7: Annual non-resident visitation and expenditures by mode of travel, Newfoundland and Labrador: 1992-2010 (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010a)

$400.00 $350.00 $300.00 $250.00 $200.00 $150.00 $100.00 $50.00 $0.00

Car

Airplane

Cruiseship

Negative environmental impacts Ecotourism is not immune to environmental concerns. The potential negative ecological risks of tourism are raised by environmental non-governmental organizations, such as the Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society and the Protected Areas Association of Newfoundland and Labrador. Concerns about the rapid pace of development and related risks to the ecological integrity of attractive destinations are raised (Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society-NL, 2011b; Protected Areas Association of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011). For example, an acute case of irresponsible ecotourism is profiled by the Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society:
the Witless Bay Ecological Reserve is bombarded daily by guided tour boats full of tourists excited to see the birds that reside on the island. However, the birds experience constant pressure and are influenced by the fast speed these boats travel, etc. (Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society-NL, 2011b).

Other, more chronic, ecological stressors include developments such as logging, mining, hydro flooding, agriculture, logging roads and ATV trails, cabin developments and urban sprawl which disrupt habitat, including feeding, mating and migration behaviours (Protected Areas Association of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011). Most fundamentally, climate change introduces system-wide stresses (Protected Areas Association of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011). Such concerns are alluded to, though not expanded upon, in Uncommon Potential, There is also an increased demand for 18

sustainable approaches to preserve the natural and cultural heritage of a destination (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009: 16). In response to this issue, the local chapter of Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society has embarked on a multi year project designed to encourage responsible tourism to operators, tourists and the general public with the goal that this will lead to increased protection for our significant features, species and habitats (Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society-NL, 2011b). It is unclear if and how the provincial government is responding to such concerns. National Geographic partnership In 2011, the government of Newfoundland and Labrador partnered with National Geographic and the local chapter of the Canadian Parks and Wilderness Society to develop a geotourism mapping project. This is an example of a specific ecotourism initiative. Through the partnership, National Geographic creates an online, interactive map that highlights local tourist attractions and amenities that are characteristics of Newfoundland as a bioregion. Of the project, the Minister of Innovation, Trade and Rural Development, Susan Sullivan, states:
Geotourism is a growing sector that holds tremendous economic potential for the development and expansion of new and existing sustainable tourism products and experiences. This project will further highlight our abundant cultural and natural attributes while spotlighting businesses and sites that subscribe to the principles of geotourism (CPAWS-NL, 2011a).

Similarly, the Minister of Tourism, Culture and Recreation, Terry French, observes that Geotourism is an essential component of the growth and development of the overall tourism strategy. This partnership will further promote our great province and add to the economy of the region (CPAWSNL, 2011a). Evaluating this initiative in terms of uptake by service providers and tourists would be a potential area for future research.

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Climate Change Emissions profile Total annual greenhouse gas emissions rose 2.7 per cent between 1990 (9.2 kilotonnes CO2 equivalent) and 2009 (9.4 kT CO2e) (Figure 9) (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010c). Within this period, emission reached a low of 7.1 kT CO2e in 1994 and a high of 11.3 kT CO2e in 2002 (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010c). However, emissions are not rising steadily: declines occurred in 2005 and 2006. In 2006, emission levels were on par with 1990 levels. This trend is not reflected to the same degree in per capita emissions due to population decline; the provinces population decreased 12 per cent between 1990 and 2007 (Environment Canada, 2009). Total annual greenhouse gas emissions per capita rose from 16.0 kT CO2e in 1990 to 18.6 kT CO2e in 2007 (Figure 9). Newfoundland and Labrador ranks fifth in Canada for per-capita emissions (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010c). Figure 8: Total annual greenhouse gas emissions in Newfoundland and Labrador, 1990-2009 (kt CO2 equivalent) (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010c)
12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0

Figure 9: Total annual greenhouse gas emission per capita in Newfoundland and Labrador, 1990-2009 (kt CO2 equivalent) (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010c)
25 20 15 10 5 0

On average, the energy sector, comprised of stationary combustion sources (e.g. mining and oil and gas extraction, fossil fuel production and refining, electricity and heat generation), the 20

transportation sector (e.g. light-duty gasoline vehicles, domestic aviation, domestic marine), and fugitive sources (e.g. leaks in industrial processes) accounts for 90 per cent of provincial emissions (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010c). In 2009, stationary combustion sources accounted for 51 per cent of emissions, the transport sector 42 per cent, and fugitive emissions 6 per cent (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010c). However, a comparison of the stationary combustion emissions originating from the oil and gas sector (e.g. mining and oil and gas extraction, fossil fuel production and refining) and the transportation sector reveals that transportation emissions are consistently higher (Figure 10). This comparison is a rough approximation, as the oil and gas figures include the mining sector and exclude fugitive emissions. Also, the transportation figures include on-road, off-road, domestic air and domestic marine modes, while intraprovincial and international air, and intraprovincial marine are excluded. Further, the percentage of emissions in the transport sector contributed by tourists, or, for that matter, by the oil and gas sector, cannot be determined. However, despite these limitations, the comparison illustrates that emissions from the transport sector are significant. Further, it raises questions about the framing of tourism as environmentally sustainable. Figure 10: Total annual greenhouse gas emission per capita in Newfoundland and Labrador in the oil and gas and transportation sectors, 1990-2009 (kt CO2 equivalent) (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010c)
4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0

Oil and Gas Sector

Transport Sector

Relative to Canada, Newfoundland and Labradors total contribution of greenhouse gas emissions ranged between 1.1 percent in 1994 and 1.6 per cent in 2002; in 2009, the contribution was 1.4 per cent (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2010c). Relative to Alberta and British Columbia, other large Canadian fossil fuel producers, Newfoundlands total emissions are low: 10 Megatonnes versus 245 Megatonnes and 63 Megatonnes respectively (Figure 11).

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Figure 11: Total annual greenhouse gas emissions in Newfoundland, Alberta and British Columbia, 2007 (Megatonnes) (Environment Canada, 2009)
300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Newfoundland Alberta British Columbia

Such comparisons, however, risk shifting responsibility for emission reduction to other jurisdictions. Researching how many people from Newfoundland and Labrador are employed in Albertas oil and gas sector, and determining related environmental impacts and economic benefits, would create a more nuanced national emissions profile. Impacts and adaptation Climate change impacts and adaptation are addressed in the provinces 2005 and 2011 Climate Change Action Plans and are the subject of a report commissioned by the Office of Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Emissions Trading. The Climate Change Action Plans draw on specific examples of climate change impacts in the province to illustrate the types of changes to be expected and related economic impacts. For example, the 2005 Climate Change Action Plan states that flood damage from 1990 to 2005 cost approximately $40 million (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2005). Flooding in spring 2003 contributed to the partial collapse of the Pinchgut Brook bridge and the wash-out of 80 metres of highway in Burlington (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2005). It is estimated that damage caused by 2002 Tropical Storm Gabrielle cost more than $400,000 (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2005). More recently, Hurricane Igor caused an estimated $150 million in damages and, at its peak, cut off 150 communities from transportation infrastructure and affected electricity to an estimated 70,000 people (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011c: 7). In 2010, Catto conducted a literature review of climate change impacts and adaptation in Newfoundland and Labrador for the Office of Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Emissions Trading. The 200-page report is wide-ranging, addressing both ecosystems, such as terrestrial and marine, as well as social sectors, such as energy and health. The following is a summary of areas relevant to the scope of this report: coastal areas, tourism and transportation. Climate change and coastal areas Sea level rise, storm surge activity, coastal erosion, beach narrowing and beach coarsening are all projected climate change impacts that affect coastal areas (Catto, 2010). Sand-dominated beaches, coastal dune complexes, tidal flats and estuaries, and salt marshes, for example, are at risk of inundation (Catto, 2010: 15). Projected economic impacts are high, due to both of the severity of ecological changes and to the increased value of coastal developments (Catto, 2010).

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Climate change and tourism Catto finds that the studies on climate change and tourism centre on two areas: the impacts of changing climate conditions at particular sites; and the role of travel (particularly air travel) in generating climate change, possibly leading some potential tourists to question their vacation choices (2010: 40). Studies of the Newfoundland and Labrador context focus on the former. For example, it is projected that climate change may result in a longer peak tourist season, increasing human impacts on tourist sites (e.g. coastal erosion), bringing into question the ecological sustainability of tourism (Catto, 2010). While warmer summer temperatures may attract tourists, increased storm events may act as a detractor (Catto, 2010). Catto briefly acknowledges iceberg-related tourism within a discussion of iceberg formation (Catto, 2010). Studies of climate change and winter tourism are primarily concerned with the quantity and timing of snow cover (Catto, 2010: 42). One Newfoundland study finds that downhill skiing conditions at Marble Mountain are projected to remain satisfactory (Rada, 2009 cited in Catto, 2010). In contrast, a study of snowmobiling conditions in eastern North America finds dramatic impacts: a reduction in suitable days between 38% and 62% by the 2020s relative to the 1970s, and a season of less than one week in Gander by 2050 (McBoyle et al., 2006, 2007 in Catto, 2010: 42). Given such divergent assessments, more research is needed on this topic, as well as on travel-related emissions and tourist destination choices in the Newfoundland context. Climate change and transport Catto addresses marine, road and air travel, determining that climate change yields advantages and disadvantages. Catto finds that increased wind strength, particularly easterly winds, may affect marine travel in terms of trip delays and cancellations, infrastructure maintenance, and emergency preparedness (e.g. Coast Guard). Wave and ice conditions are projected to remain risks to marine vessels, while fog intensity and frequency are projected to decrease (Catto, 2010). Catto does not specifically address cruise ship travel. Studies on road travel focus on the road surface. Projected impacts include summer heating and winter freezing that may effect driving safety, freeze-thaw cycles leading to infrastructure damage, and disruption due to storm events (e.g. flooding) (Catto, 2010). Advantages of climate change to road travel are not listed, but may include a longer dry season and decreased fog. The same risks that apply to roads surface also apply to airport runway surfaces (Catto, 2010). Newfoundland and Labradors airports, with the exception of Stephenville Airport, are located on high-lying, inland regions that are not at risk for flooding (Catto, 2010). As well, rain and fog frequency are projected to decrease (Catto, 2010). Catto does not address the potential impacts of storms on air travel, though presumably they are similar to those for marine travel (e.g. trip delays and cancellations). It would be valuable to learn to what extent the Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Transportation and Works and the Canadian Coast Guard are incorporating such projections into their work plans. Office of Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Emissions Trading The Office of Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Emissions Trading (CCEEET) is the lead agency on climate change in Newfoundland and Labrador (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2012f). CCEEETs vision is of a province that achieves economic, social and environmental success by effectively integrating progressive action on climate change and energy efficiency and its mission is, by 2017, to have advanced the provinces capacity to respond and adapt to climate change (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011b: 5). Founded in 2009, CCEEETs five employees coordinate provincial strategy and policy. As well, they collaborate with governmental departments responsible for climate change program implementation, such as the Department of Environment and Conservation and the Department of 23

Natural Resources (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2012f). CCEEET represents provincial interests on regional, national and international bodies focusing on climate change and energy efficiency, such as the NEG/ECP annual conferences (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2012f). In 2010/11, CCEEETs budget was $898,600 (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011b). CCEEET has three focus areas: Policy and Strategy Development, Promoting Governmentwide Action and Strengthening the Evidence Base (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2012f). In terms of Policy and Strategy Development, CCEEET hosted 13 engagement sessions in 2010/11 with representatives from industry, academia, municipalities, labour organizations, and the voluntary and not-for-profit sector (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011b: 7). As well, CCEEET held bilateral consultations with representatives from 11 industries, including oil extraction and refining (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011b: 7). These sessions centred on a Climate Change Action Plan discussion document drafted by CCEEET (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011b). In addition, CCEEET conducted a public survey to gauge public awareness and attitudes on climate change and energy efficiency. It would be valuable to learn the survey content and findings (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011b: 7). With regard to Promoting Government-wide Action, CCEEET engaged with representatives of the Departments of Environment and Conservation, Natural Resources, Finance, Innovation, Trade and Rural Development, Municipal Affairs, Transportation and Works, and Intergovernmental Affairs. It would be useful to learn the nature of these exchanges, as well as whether CCEEET intends to engage with the Department of Tourism Culture and Recreation. Finally, in terms of Strengthening the Evidence Base, CCEEET has
undertaken or commissioned a series of research projects including studies on: the impacts of carbon pricing on Newfoundland and Labrador; the impacts of climate change on the province; commercial and industrial energy efficiency programs in other provinces and territories; climate change monitoring capabilities in the province; and, with the Department of Innovation, Trade and Rural Development, a study of the opportunities associated with the green economy (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2012f).

Relevant aspects of the 2010 Catto report on climate change impacts are summarized in the previous section of this report (pp. 22-3).The other report of most relevance to this project is the green economy report developed in collaboration with Department of Innovation, Trade and Rural Development. However, this report is not readily available on either departmental website. It would be valuable to learn how the oil and gas sector and tourism sectors are represented in this report. Climate Change Action Plan 2011 In 2011, the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador released its second climate change action plan, Charting our Course: Climate Change Action Plan 2011. This plan builds on, and resembles, the provinces initial 2005 plan. The Plan echoes the position in the 2007 Energy Plan that the current oil and gas boom will finance renewable infrastructure: Our province has vast clean energy resources and our government is committed to utilizing revenues from our non-renewable resources to support a clean energy future (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011c: n.p.). As well, it reaffirms the NEG/ECP emission reduction targets first committed to in the Energy Plan. The tone of the Plan is optimistic, referring to untapped opportunities and stating that the government is committed to positioning our economy so we are well placed to seize the opportunities associated with the move to a low-carbon global economy (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011c: n.p.). However, the content of the Climate Change Action Plans proposed mitigation 24

actions are incremental rather than transformational. For example, mitigation measures include inhouse government emission reductions, applying emission regulations to new industrial developments and promoting residential energy efficiency through rebates (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011d). While all of these measures are necessary, they work at the margins of the status quo. The absence of substantive measures in the oil and gas sector is notable. Amongst the 12 actions listed to address emissions from large final emitters are: Take account of trade-exposed nature of energyintensive sector, Provide greater long-term certainty for industry, and Accommodate the unique circumstances of the offshore oil and mining sectors (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011c: 43). This language implies industry influence on the Climate Change Action Plans content. Similarly, the transportation actions centre on advocating for improvements to vehicle and fuel efficiency standards, not managing demand. While the CCEEET commissioned a report on carbon pricing, and incorporates Emissions Trading into its organizational nomenclature, there is minimal discussion of carbon pricing in the Climate Change Action Plan. The report provides a one-page primer on carbon pricing concepts and summarizes the CCEEET study,
in a carbon-constrained environment in which a price is placed on GHG emissions, fuel-switching to cleaner energy sources and energy efficiency are the most promising and cost-effective opportunities for emissions reductions in the industrial and commercial sectors (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2011c: 42).

Such a disjuncture suggests that innovations being considered at certain levels of government are not permeating to other levels. Lastly, there are several scenic photos of the province in the report, provided by the Department Tourism, Culture and Recreation, but no link is made in the text between climate change and the tourism sector.

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Future Research Several areas for future research emerged in the course of this report. With regard to the oil and gas sector, numerous questions arise with regard to the Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB). Basic information, such as the nature of the C-NLOPB oil spill field detection programs, data about spills, in terms of marine extent, environmental impact and oil recovery, and factors contributing to the decline in total annual oil spill volume since 2007 would be useful. Exploring whether the tourism sector, particularly ecotourism, is considered in C-NLOPB project reviews and the history of compensation awarded to those affected by oil spill events would also be valuable. Finally, examining media coverage of the 2004 Terra Nova oil spill, particularly wildlife and ecotourism impacts, as well as identifying how frequently C-NLOPB incident bulletins are addressed in the popular media may be illustrative. Uncommon Potential: A Vision for Newfoundland and Labrador Tourism states that, Climate change has emerged as a significant environmental concern and travellers are becoming more conscientious of their footprint (Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, 2009: 16). A key area for research is examining the relationship between travel-related emissions and tourist destination choices in the Newfoundland context. Connected to this is the issue of future snow coverage trends and the biophysical and social impacts on the winter tourism industry (Catto, 2010). A further research area may involve tracing the shift away from the promotion of hunting and fishing in relation to the framing of Newfoundland as an ecotourism destination, as well as the framing of the province as a site of contentious sealing practices. Finally, there appears to be a disjuncture between potentially transformative climate change work in the provinces Office of Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Emissions Trading (CCEEET) and an incremental approach reflected in the 2011 Climate Change Action Plan. Exploring CCEEETs approach to, and position on, greenhouse gas intensive extractive and attractive sectors would be valuable. Locating and reviewing the green economy report co-authored with the Department of Innovation, Trade and Rural Development would be an excellent starting point.

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Conclusion The province of Newfoundland Labrador is simultaneously pursuing divergent development pathways. The Canada-Newfoundland and Labrador Offshore Petroleum Board (C-NLOPB) manages three offshore sites, Hibernia, White Rose and Terra Nova, and is planning the development of a fourth site, Hebron. With estimated reserves of 700 million barrels, Hebron is projected to create 3,500 jobs and to contribute $20 billion in revenue to the province. Pending C-NLOPB approval, Hebron is scheduled to be in production from 2017 to 2042. In addition to extractive industry, the province is also pursuing attractive development. The provinces natural beauty and related ecotourism opportunities are a pillar of Uncommon Potential: A Vision for Newfoundland and Labrador Tourism. In 2010, more than 500,000 non-residents visited the region, exceeding for the first time the number of residents and contributing $850 million to the economy. By 2020, the Newfoundland and Labrador Department of Tourism Culture and Recreation aim to double annual tourism revenue to $1.6 billion. Growth in the oil and gas and ecotourism sectors will contribute to increased greenhouse gas emissions. Stationary and transport sources already account for 90 per cent of provincial emissions, presenting a challenge to the Office of Climate Change, Energy Efficiency and Emissions Trading which is responsible for meeting the 2011 Climate Change Action Plan target of reducing emissions 10 per cent below 1990 levels by 2020. Further, impacts of the type projected under climate change scenarios are already occurring. For example, flood damage throughout the province cost approximately $40 million between 1990 and 2005. This review of the political economy of the oil and gas sector, ecotourism sector and climate change policy between 1992 and 2010 illustrates a disconnection between spheres. The oil and gas industry and ecotourism are framed as key economic drivers. However, there is no substantive discussion of the paradoxical pursuit of both extractive and attractive development, nor of practical impacts of one sector on the other, such as climate change-related events damaging transportation infrastructure or oils spills affecting coastal environmental quality. Further, the oil and gas and tourism sectors fall within Newfoundland and Labradors two most greenhouse gas intensive sectors, stationary combustion sources and transportation. This poses a direct challenge to the achievement of the provinces greenhouse gas emission target of a 10 per cent reduction below 1990 levels by 2020. This tension is reflected in the incremental rather than transformational nature of the 2011 Climate Change Action Plan. In short, while the spheres of oil and gas development, ecotourism and climate change run into, spill over and indeed, in large part, constitute one another, they are addressed by the province of Newfoundland and Labrador as discrete development pathways, resulting in the simultaneous pursuit of paradoxical policy directions.

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