2%
24
47584
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
47584
147584
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
NA/MV
0,2
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
500000
18%
46650.98039
45736.25529
44839.46597
43960.26075
43098.29485
42253.23025
41424.73554
40612.48582
39816.16257
39035.4535
38270.05245
37519.65927
36783.97967
36062.72517
35355.61291
34662.3656
33982.71137
33316.3837
32663.12127
32022.66791
31394.77247
30779.18869
30175.67519
91756.14408
962172.3847
0
0
464299.7055
452975.3224
441927.1438
431148.433
420632.6175
410373.2854
400364.1809
390599.2009
381072.3911
371777.9425
4165170.223
EM
ea
0.015
0.195618171
Ead
deva
EA$
ET
NA/TV
6%
10%
0.166
0.039141376
0.156565503
A
B
-30
-40
10
-10
tasa
tasa es
monto
monto
0
1
2
3
4
16
20
-4
4
20% NA/SV
10%
2000
amort
2000
1000
20%
0
1
2
tio
Vna
inv
vida util
A
tasa
200
200
100
100
25%
b
-1000
800
800
33%
16%
291.51 $
-0.004223026
240.9972299
291.5110151
61.85806041
10
4
2.9314
20%
0
1
2
int
1000
16
20
-4
4
-10
3.1177
3.1177
-1000
1750
34%
514.50
268.2997536
473.6842105
514.4958892
322.8513115
268.2955306
714.6814404
806.0069043
384.7093719
3
4
($ 0.00)
3.1177
7.1177
Tio
tio 2
20%
25%
ingresos
costos
depre
gasto
uop
interes
UAI
impuestos
UNF
1000
30
20
600
350
10
340
119
221
nopat
depre
FCB
227.5
620
847.5
publicidad
plazo
amort
600
3
200
bonos
inter
numero de acciones
precio por accion
total patri
d1
crecimiento
Kd
Ke
valor
d1
g
C
1000000000
11%
60000
10000
600000000
1000
6%
11%
16.00%
1000000000
600000000
1600000000
0.625
0.375
100
30
10%
5.00
41.579%
A
VE
DE
coef
parte II
vida util
aof
ktno
inflacion
dev
seguros y pub
ao 3
ao 5
tasa
venta aof
recupera ktno
4.2
3.8
0.904761905
8 vs
1100
230
5%
3% amort
90
280
200
30%
630
90%
ao 0
crecimiento
Ingresos
costos
ub
Amort
Depreciaciones
Uop
Nopat
Depreciaciones
amort
FCB
ktno
aof
venta aof
pago imp
venta ktno
ahorro
fcp
monto de inv
deuda
110
11.25
ao 1
230
1100
-1330
1330
0.4
3.2
3.8
1.1875
ao 2
800
330
470
11.25
123.75
335
234.5
123.75
11.25
369.5
11.5
0.175
940
365
575
11.25
123.75
440
308
123.75
11.25
443
42.2625
358
400.7375
monto deuda
Monto Equity
532
798
Monto BDB
tasa
comision
amort
266
15% Anticipada
3% comienzo del credito
66.5
ao
monto
vi
Comision
amort
int
taxshield
FCC1
kd1
0
266
266
7.98
39.9
218.12
13.48%
monto banco 2
tasa
periodo
cuota
266
266
39.9
26.334
-13.566
39.9
11.97
-27.93
266
18%
8
($ 65.23)
ao 0
ao 1
monto
vi
amort
int
vf
tax shield
fcc2
kd2
266
12.60%
ao
FCL
FCF
FCI
0
-1330
484.12
-845.88
beta proyecto
RF
spread
ao 2
266
1.23
9.50%
7%
266
$ 17.35
47.88
$ 248.65
14.364
-50.87099947
$ 248.65
$ 20.48
44.7561001
$ 228.17
13.42683003
-51.80816944
1
358
-64.43699947
293.5630005
2
400.7375
-79.73816944
320.9993306
Ke
tipo
banco 1
banco 2
equity
ao
Flujos
WACC
VNA FLUJOS
VNA parcial
peso
duration parcial
duration
fluctuacion
var
ao
Flujos
18.1100%
monto solicitado
266
266
845.88
1377.88
monto recibido
peso
218.12
0.193050193
266
0.193050193
845.88
0.613899614
1330
1
358
2
400.7375
311.3043478
$ 0.11
0.11
303.0151229
$ 0.10
0.21
1
0
2
0
15%
$ 2,901.60
5.19
0.035
-0.158058441
0
16
20
-4
4
28%
23%
10%
10%
flujp
100
1900
-200
-1200
-100
-1100
12.12%
0.06875
0.06
0.12875
3.2
3.5
1.09375
DEPRECIA
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
ao 3
ao 4
1100
1100
976.25
852.5
728.75
605
481.25
357.5
233.75
ao 5
123.75
123.75
123.75
123.75
123.75
123.75
123.75
123.75
ao 6
976.25
852.5
728.75
605
481.25
357.5
233.75
110
ao 7
0.180851064
1110
383
727
11.25
123.75
592
414.4
123.75
11.25
549.4
51.31875
280
0.171171171
1300
392
908
11.25
151.75
745
521.5
151.75
11.25
684.5
57.35625
0.2
1560
428
1132
11.25
151.75
969
678.3
151.75
11.25
841.3
78.4875
200
0.096153846
1710
504
1206
11.25
171.75
1023
716.1
171.75
11.25
899.1
45.28125
0.16374269
1990
461
1529
11.25
405.5
1112.25
778.575
405.5
11.25
1195.325
84.525
218.08125
627.14375
562.8125
853.81875
1110.8
266
266
266
199.5
133
39.9
11.97
-27.93
39.9
11.97
-27.93
66.5
39.9
11.97
-94.43
66.5
29.925
8.9775
-87.4475
66.5
19.95
5.985
-80.465
ao 3
ao 4
ao 5
ao 6
ao 7
$ 228.17
$ 24.17
41.06989821
$ 204.00
12.32096946
-52.91403001
$ 204.00
$ 28.51
36.72017998
$ 175.49
11.01605399
-54.21894548
$ 175.49
$ 33.65
31.58751247
$ 141.84
9.476253742
-55.75874573
$ 141.84
$ 39.70
25.53096481
$ 102.13
7.659289444
-57.57571003
$ 102.13
$ 46.85
18.38423858
$ 55.28
5.515271573
-59.7197279
3
218.08125
-80.84403001
137.23722
4
627.14375
-82.14894548
544.9948045
5
562.8125
-150.1887457
412.6237543
6
853.81875
-145.02321
708.79554
7
1110.8
-140.1847279
970.6152721
costo
ponderado
13.48%
0.026020487
12.60%
0.024324324
18.1100%
0.11117722
wacc
VPN
TIR
0.161522031
$ 1,426.00
36%
3
218.08125
4
627.14375
5
562.8125
6
853.81875
7
1110.8
143.3919619
$ 0.05
0.15
358.5714745
$ 0.12
0.49
279.8172813
$ 0.10
0.48
369.1294075
$ 0.13
0.76
417.5908639
$ 0.14
1.01
3
0
4
0
5
0
6
0
7
0
DEPRECIACIONES
280
280
252
224
196
168
140
112
84
56
28
ao 8
0.010050251
2010
490
1520
11.25
171.75
1337
935.9
171.75
11.25
1118.9
6.0375
630
72
546.091875
18.2030625
2198.751313
606.76875
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
28
252
224
196
168
140
112
84
56
28
0
200
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
8
66.5
66.5
0
-66.5
ao 8
$ 55.28
$ 55.28
9.951101614
($ 0.00)
2.985330484
-62.24966899
8
2198.751313
-128.749669
2070.001644
8
2198.751313
718.7757043
$ 0.25
1.98
8
0
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
390
156075903.xlsx.ms_office
Reporte de Crystal Ball - Completo
La simulacin comenz en 14/05/2013 en 20:37
La simulacin se detuvo en 14/05/2013 en 20:37
Preferencias de ejecucin:
Cantidad de iteraciones ejecutadas
Velocidad extrema
Monte Carlo
Semilla aleatoria
Control de precisin en
Nivel de confianza
95.00%
Estadsticas de ejecucin:
Tiempo total de ejecucin (seg.)
Iteraciones/segundo (promedio)
Nmeros aleatorios por seg.
0.21
47,128
377,025
10,000
8
0
0
0
1
Page 23
156075903.xlsx.ms_office
Pronsticos
Celda: F242
Resumen:
El rango completo est entre (1.171.443,08) y 979.758,67
El caso base es 455,29
Luego de 10.000 iteraciones, el error estndar de la media es 158,49
Estadsticas:
Iteraciones
Caso base
Media
Mediana
Moda
Desviacin estndar
Varianza
Asimetra
Curtosis
Coeficiente de variabilidad
Mnimo
Mximo
Rango
Error estndar de la media
Valores pronosticados
10,000
455.29
1,255.73
1,337.54
--15,849.37
251,202,458.76
-17.41
4,454.42
12.62
(1,171,443.08)
979,758.67
2,151,201.74
158.49
Page 24
156075903.xlsx.ms_office
Pronstico: VPN (contina)
Percentiles:
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Celda: F242
Valores pronosticados
(1,171,443.08)
(447.17)
168.61
619.08
998.37
1,337.52
1,698.51
2,093.08
2,537.97
3,167.55
979,758.67
Page 25
156075903.xlsx.ms_office
Supuestos
Celda: C168
800.00
420.00
Supuesto: D168
Normal distribucin con parmetros:
Media
Desv. Est.
Celda: D168
940.00
540.00
Supuesto: E168
Normal distribucin con parmetros:
Media
Desv. Est.
Celda: E168
1,110.00
930.00
Supuesto: F168
Normal distribucin con parmetros:
Media
Desv. Est.
Celda: F168
1,300.00
1,350.00
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Supuesto: G168
Normal distribucin con parmetros:
Media
Desv. Est.
Celda: G168
1,560.00
1,640.00
Supuesto: H168
Normal distribucin con parmetros:
Media
Desv. Est.
Celda: H168
1,710.00
2,030.00
Supuesto: I168
Normal distribucin con parmetros:
Media
Desv. Est.
Celda: I168
1,990.00
2,450.00
Supuesto: J168
Normal distribucin con parmetros:
Media
Desv. Est.
Celda: J168
2,010.00
3,000.00
Page 27
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Celda: F242
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156075903.xlsx.ms_office
Celda: F242
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Celda: C168
Celda: D168
Celda: E168
Celda: F168
Page 31
156075903.xlsx.ms_office
Celda: G168
Celda: H168
Celda: I168
Celda: J168
Page 32