Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| July 9, 2013

Content
Overview US Dollar Euro GBP JPY Economic Indicators
Overview:

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| July 9, 2013

Highlights
Indian Rupee touched lifetime low of 61.20-mark mark in yesterdays trade. Chinas Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7 percent in June June. German Industrial Production fell by 1 percent in the month of May. Asian markets are trading higher today on the back of favorable economic data from China and rise in earnings in US which beat the estimates acting as a positive factor. Further, finance ministers in Euro Zone met yesterday esterday and agreed to provide aid package for Greece also supported an upside in the markets. Chinas Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 2.7 percent in June as against a rise of 2.1 percent in May. Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.7 percent in June from rom earlier fall of 2.9 percent a month ago. The RBI issued a notification on late in yesterdays trade and banned banks from proprietary trading in the domestic currency futures and options markets. Further, Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) increased the margin requirement to 100 percent of trade amount. It means investors will have to shell up full amount of transaction at the time of trade itself unlike earlier times which was during the settlement.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last NIFTY SENSEX DJIA S&P FTSE KOSPI BOVESPA NIKKEI Nymex Crude (Aug13) - $/bbl Comex Gold (Aug13) - $/oz Comex Silver(Sept13) $/oz LME Copper (3 month) -$/tonne CRB Index (Industrial) G-Sec -10 yr @7.8% Yield 5811.6 19324.8 15224.69 1640.5 15799.6 1959.2 58497.8 14109.3 103.14 1234.90 19.03 6830.50 102.09 0.0 Prev. day -1.0 -0.9 0.6 0.5 1.7 -1.5 0.2 -1.4 -0.1 1.8 1.6 0.9

as on July 8, 2013 WoW -1.5 -1.3 2.1 1.6 2.2 5.6 23.9 -0.1 6.8 -1.7 -2.7 -1.9 4.3 MoM -1.9 -1.0 -0.1 -0.2 -1.4 2.0 18.9 11.2 7.7 -10.3 -12.1 -12.9 2.5 YoY 9.3 5.7 19.2 21.1 14.4 2.0 8.9 58.6 22.1 -21.8 -30.6 -9.8 2.3

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of recovery in the global markets which led to fall in demand for the currency. However, expectations that Fed will go ahead with its reduction plan in bond buying as early as from Septe September cushioned sharp fall in the currency. The DX touched an intra intra-day low of 84.36 and closed at 84.41 on Monday.

Source: Reuters

US Dollar (% change)
Last Dollar Index US $ / INR (Spot) US $ / INR July13 Futures (NSE) US $ / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX) 84.41 60.68 60.94 60.92 Prev. day -0.3 -0.8 0.58 0.56 WoW 1.4 -2.2 1.87 1.86

as on July 8, 2013 MoM 3.4 -6.6 6.45 6.36 YoY 6.2 -8.0 9.42 9.39

Dollar/INR
The Indian Rupee opened on a depreciation note and touched all time low of 61.20-mark mark and fell around 0.8 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency depreciated on account of expectations that Fed will pullback its stimulus measures after favorable jobs data from US on Friday. This led to sharp rise in the DX during the early part of the trade and exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, during the day the currency appreciated but remained weak as a result of intervention by Reserve Bank of India and estimates that meeting of central banks along with oil importers on Friday will bring some positive results. The currency closed at 60.68 on Monday. For the month of July 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.1,022.60 crores th ($173.40 million) as on 8 July 2013. Year to date basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.73,200.80 s.73,200.80 crores ($13,674.20 million) till 8 July 2013. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect the Rupee to appreciate on account of recovery in global and domestic markets coupled with weakness in the DX. . Additionally, expectations that R RBI will come out with some measures in its strategy meeting on Friday along with increase in margin by SEBI will also act as a positive factor for the Rupee.

Technical Chart USD/INR

Source: Telequote

Technical Outlook
Trend US Dollar/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down

valid for July 8, 2013 Support 60.80/60.60 Resistance 61.20/61.40

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| July 9, 2013

Euro/INR
The Euro appreciated around 0.3 percent in the yesterdays trade on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, recovery in the market sentiments supported an upside in the currency. Additionally, finance ministers in Euro Zone met yesterday and agreed to provide aid package for Greece also acted as a positive factor for the currency. However, sharp upside in the currency was capped on account of unfavorable economic data from the region. The Euro touched an intra intraday high of 1.2882 and closed at 1.2869 against the d dollar on Monday. German Trade Balance was at a surplus of 14.1 billion Euros in May as against a surplus of 17.5 billion Euros a month ago. European Sentix Investor Confidence was at -12.6-mark mark in July from earlier fall of -11.6level in June. German Industrial ustrial Production fell by 1 percent in May with respect to rise of 1.8 percent a month ago. Outlook In todays session, we expect the Euro to trade higher on the back of recovery in the global markets. Further, weakness in the DX will support an upside in the currency. Additionally, Euro Zone finance ministers meeting today to provide aid to Greece and take measures for the regions debt crisis will act as a positive factor. Technical Outlook
Trend Euro/INR July13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down 78.05/77.80 78.50/78.70 valid for July 9, 2013 Support Resistance

Euro (% change)
Last Euro /$ (Spot) Euro / INR (Spot) Euro / INR July 13 Futures (NSE) Euro / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.2869 78.09 78.2 Prev. day 0.3 -1.1 0.29

as on July 8, 2013 WoW -1.5 -0.7 0.34 MoM -2.8 -3.6 3.07 YoY 4.5 -11.9 13.56

78.2

0.32

0.33

3.02

13.53

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Euro

Source: Telequote

GBP (% change)

as on July 8, 2013

Last $ / GBP (Spot) GBP / INR (Spot) GBP / INR July13 Futures (NSE) GBP / INR July 13 Futures (MCX-SX) 1.495 90.645 90.81

Prev. day 0.42 1.06 0.09

WoW -1.7 0.30 -0.21

MoM -4.2 2.08 1.91

YoY -3.7 5.48 5.01

GBP/INR
The Sterling Pound appreciated around 0.4 percent taking cues from weakness in the DX. Further, recovery in the global markets will support an upside in the prices. The Sterling Pound touched an intra intra-day high of 1.4966 and closed at 1.495 against dollar on Tuesday. Outlook We expect the Sterling Pound to trade on a positive note on the back of recovery in the global markets. Additionally, weakness in the DX will act as a positive factor for the currency. Further, expectations of favorable economic data from the country will ll support an upside in the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend GBP/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for July 9, 2013 Support 90.60/90.40 Resistance 91.10/91.30

90.76

0.06

-0.26

1.80

4.99

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Sterling Pound

Source: Telequote

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Currencies Daily Report

Tuesday| July 9, 2013

JPY/INR
JPY (% change) The Japanese Yen appreciated around 0.2 percent in the yesterdays trading session on account of rise in risk aversion in the global markets in the early part of the trade which led to rise in demand for the currency. The Yen touched an intra-day day low of 100.77 and closed at 100.95 against dollar on Monday. Japans Economy Watchers Sentiment declined around 2.7 points to 53 53mark in June with respect to 55.7-level a month ago. Outlook day trade, we expect the Japanese Yen to depreciate, taking cues For intra-day from rise in n risk appetite in the global markets, which could lead to fall in demand for the currency. Technical Outlook
Trend JPY/INR July 13 (NSE/MCX-SX) Down valid for July 9, 2013 Support 60.0/59.80 Resistance 60.44/60.60
Source: Telequote

as on July 8, 2013 Last 100.95 0.6012 60.23 60.16 Prev day -0.2 1.01 -0.57 -0.66 WoW 1.3 0.84 0.39 0.26 MoM 4.1 2.77 0.58 0.50 YoY 26.9 -13.61 -13.55 -13.68

JPY / $ (Spot) JPY / INR (Spot) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (NSE) JPY 100 / INR July13 Futures (MCX-SX)

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart JPY

Economic Indicators to be released on July 9, 2013

Indicator BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y CPI y/y PPI y/y Manufacturing Production m/m Trade Balance ECOFIN Meetings NIESR GDP Estimate Country UK China China UK UK Euro UK Time (IST) 4:31am 7:00am 7:00am 2:00pm 2:00pm All day 7:30pm Actual 1.4% 2.7% -2.7% Forecast 2.5% -2.5% 0.5% -8.4B Previous 1.8% 2.1% -2.9% -0.2% -8.2B 0.6% Impact Medium High Medium High Medium Medium Medium

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