CMP: Rs.132.0
July 08, 2013
Recommended Action Buy at CMP & add on dips Averaging Price Band (Rs.) 119-123 Price Target (Rs.) 156 Stop Loss (Rs.) 116 Time Horizon 1 quarter
% Holding
74.99 0.72 8.25 16.04 100.0
In FY11, Dhanuka Agritech issued 41.25 lac preferential equity shares @ Rs.80.20 to investors to bring down their stake to 75% from 90%.
Product Portfolio:
Insecticides Herbicides Fungicides PGN and Others Media, Dunet, Caldan, Omite, Aaatank, Adfyre, Brigade, Bombard, Dhanpreet, Dhawa Gold,Markar
Targa Super, Barrier, Craze, Qurin, Weedmar Super, Noweed, Ozone, D-Era, Hook
Vitavax Power, Sixer, Kasu-B,Hi-Dice, Cursor, Hexadhan Plus, Sheathmar, Vitavax Ultra,Lustre Dhanuvit, Dhanzyme Gold, Samadhan, Wetcit
If we look at the segmental contribution of each segment in FY13, the Insecticide segment has contributed 45% to the overall revenue followed by Herbicide which contributed 28%, Fungicides contributed 12% and the remaining was contributed by PGN (Plant Growth Nutrient) segments.
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Top 5 Products
Products Targa Super Caldan Markar Omite Dhanzyme Granules
Category
Herbicide Insecticide Insecticide Miticide PGN
% of Revenues
~20% ~10% ~4% ~4% ~3%
Investment Rationale:
Rise in rural income and profitability MSP (minimum support prices guaranteed by the Government for agri-produce purchase) for the majority of crops has increased by over 60% in the past four years giving thrust to rural incomes. This has resulted in rural prosperity and willingness on the part of farmers to spend on seeds, agrochemical and agri services. Minimum Support/Procurement Prices Recommended by CACP and Fixed by Government (Rs per quintal)
Commodity Name Paddy common Jowar Bajra Ragi Maize Urad Groundnut Wheat Sugarcane 2008-2009 850 840 840 915 840 2520 2100 1000 81.18 2009-2010 950 840 840 915 840 2520 2100 1080 129.84 2010-2011 1000 880 880 965 880 2900 2300 1100 139.12 2011-2012 1080 980 980 1050 980 3300 2700 1120 145 2012-2013 1250 1500 1175 1500 1175 4300 3700 1285 170 2013-2014 1310 1500 1250 1500 1310 4300 4000 210
(Source: Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, Govt of India, HDFC Sec Research)
Low current consumption in India Indias consumption of agricultural chemicals is one of the lowest in the world. Only 35-40 per cent of farmland is under crop protection and the usage of inputs such as pesticide are even lower. The current consumption of agrochemicals in India is low at approximately 0.5 kg per hectare compared to approximately 11 kg for Japan, 7 kg for Korea and more than 2 kg for USA.
Large distribution network Dhanuka has a strong pan-India distribution network in India and during the year, has made efforts to increase it further. Company is reaching more than 2,500 distributors and 4,500 dealers directly and ultimately reaches over 10 million farmers. Dhanukas marketing network is one of the best in India and its ability to penetrate even the interiors of villages has given it a distinct edge over its competitors.
Vast scope for expansion Although India has the largest area under cultivation in crops such as paddy and wheat, it is lagging behind in total production. As much as Rs.1.2 lakh crores worth of potential crop production in India is destroyed due to insects, fungus and weeds. It has been estimated that the country is losing food grain production worth Rs.2.5 lakh crore per annum. At present, the pesticide use is only for a few crops and in a few States only. Thus, there is a vast scope for expansion in area and crops under assured plant protection coverage. The share of herbicides in India is quite low at 20% of total agrochemicals compared to approximately 48% globally. But with rising farm labor prices, there is a visible shift from manual weeding to the use of herbicides in India. Dhanuka has strong product portfolio in herbicides and has been able to increase the proportion of herbicides in its portfolio from 27% of sales to 32% of sales in the last 2 to 3 years (though it dipped to 28% in FY13 due to poor monsoon increasing contribution from insecticides).
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Partnerships with Internationally acclaimed companies Dhanuka has technology and marketing partnerships with internationally acclaimed companies, so this tie up would help Dhanuka to absorb latest technologies and thereby launch new molecules in the domestic market. Strategic inlicence marketing arrangements with global leaders
Technology Partner E.I.Dupont India Private Limited Brand Name Dunet Dhawa Gold Qurin Cursor Hi Dice Hook Aatank Markar Nabood Brigade Dimilin Omite Vitavax Targa super Caldan Sheathmar Nukil Bombard Kasu-B Category Insecticide Insecticide Herbicide Fungicide Fungicide Herbicide Insecticide Insecticide Herbicide Insecticide Insecticide Miticide Fungicide Herbicide Insecticide Fungicide Insecticide Insecticide Fungicide
Nissan Chemical Industries, Japan Sumitomo Chemical Company, Japan Mitsui & Co.Ltd,Japan Hokko Chemical Co Ltd
3-4 new products launches in pipeline Management has said that they have around 5-7 new product launches in the pipeline and they have applied for the licenses with concerned government authority. They are confident that they will be able get licenses to launch at least 2-3 products in FY14 belonging to the insecticides and herbicides segment. The newly launched Lustre to contribute significantly by FY15 Dhanuka had launched one new Fungicide product in the name of Lustre in November 2012.Since then it was marketed only in the state of Andhra Pradesh, but now the company plans to launch this nationwide by the end of July 2013. It is a high margin product similar to Targa Super and management expects it to contribute significantly to the companys revenue by FY15. Like Taga Super, Lustre is also a product registered under section 9(3) of the Insecticides Act and hence the exclusivity brings above normal margins to the company. Normal Monsoon Met Department has forecasted normal monsoon in the current year increasing the chances of good season for the industry, particularly post last two years of tepid growth. Dhanuka management foresee better than the industry average growth. Forecasts for 2013 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall by IMD As per IMD (Indian Meteorological Department), monsoon season rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 98% of the long period average (LPA) with a model error of 4%. The 5-category probability forecasts for the Season (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole is given below. Category Deficient Below Normal Normal Above Normal Excess Rainfall Range (% of LPA) < 90 90 - 96 96 - 104 104 - 110 > 110 Forecast Probability (%) 9 28 47 14 2 Climatological Probability(%) 16 17 33 16 17
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India has received satisfactory and healthy rainfall in June 2013. Interestingly, rainfall in the last month has been the highest ever recorded in the last 12 years. Farmer engagement initiatives increasing brand visibility Dhanuka through its experts (Dhanuka Doctors) regularly conducts several awareness programs to educate farmers on the usage of agrochemicals, established soil and water testing labs for the benefit of farmers, provides seed treatment facilities and also demonstrates new product innovations to farmers. This type of initiatives will help Dhanuka strengthen its relationships with farmer community and thereby enhances brand visibility. Expansion plans / Greenfield capacity to boost volume growth The managements objective is to achieve a top line of Rs 1000 crore by March 2016. At present Dhanuka has three production facilities located at Gurgaon, Udhampur and Sanand. Company has started building additional capacities at all three plants for meeting the next 1-2 years requirements.
Further anticipating environmental issues at Sanand and Gurgaon over the next 1-2 years, Dhanuka has taken pro active steps to set-up a Greenfield plant at Rajasthan. Rajasthan Plant Dhanuka has acquired 10 Acres of land at Keshwana in Rajasthan to set up a manufacturing facility there with a total capex of Rs 55 Crore which would be funded through internal accruals.Rs.10 Crore has been incurred for Capex during FY13 and Rs.40 Crore will be incurred in FY14 and the remaining in FY15.The unit is expected to be operational by first quarter of FY15. Rajasthan facility will be able to manufacture all of its current product lines which includes Liquids, Powder, Dust and Granules and once fully operational it will triple the existing capacity for liquids and powder. Once fully operational this facility will have twice the capacity of all the present three capacities combined.
Dahej Plant Dhanuka has acquired 37 Acres of land for setting up a manufacturing facility at Dahej SEZ. Dahej plant is focused towards contract manufacturing business. Since Dhanuka has technology and marketing tie ups with several multinational companies mostly from Japan, Dhanuka expects its foreign partners to enter into contract manufacturing agreement where the foreign players will outsource part or full of their manufacturing operation to its Indian partner. As and when some visibility of this business is witnessed, Dhanuka will go ahead with setting up this unit. Years of product development experience, cost effective manufacturing capabilities and providing stable partnering abilities has placed the company in a good position to take advantage of the significant opportunity offered by this emerging segment.
Asset Light business model Dhanuka has a unique business model. There are two types of companies one who is in the Technical side involved in manufacturing of active ingredients and the other who purchases these active ingredients and dilute it with inert ingredients Inert ingredients may be liquids into which the active ingredient is dissolved, chemicals that keep the product from separating or settling, and even compounds that help secure the pesticide to its target after application. The combination of an active ingredient with compatible inert ingredients is referred to as a formulation. Companies involved in the manufacture of technical grade active ingredients sell their product to formulation companies and the former has to incur high R&D expenditure and their margins are also less. However Formulation companies does not require that much spend on R&D and the cost of manufacturing is also low and have high margin. Dhanuka is a company that is purely into formulation business. Its marketing and distribution based business model has been its key strength helping the company achieve sizable revenues with minimum investment in setting up new manufacturing facilities, helping it generate free cash flow. Going forward, because of the expansion plans like setting up new facilities at Dahej and in Rajasthan we could see some dip in asset turnover temporarily. Value unlocking of Gurgaon plant/land, a distinct possibility The plant at Gurgaon is situated near to Railway station. Hence there is a possibility that Dhanuka may face environmental issues in this plant sooner or later. Hence if the company is forced to or voluntarily chooses to shut down this plant, it could result in value unlocking as the land on which the plant is built is valued close to Rs.100 cr. Further having started the process of setting up a Greenfield plant at Rajasthan, it would not face any production issues too.
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Dhanukas strong balance sheet with negligible debt and strong RoCE above 24% and moderate capex plans helps the company generate large free cash flows year after year. Industry growth scenario India is the 4th largest producer of Agrochemicals after USA, Japan and China and the second largest producer of Agrochemicals in Asia and had an estimated domestic market size of Rs.80 billion in India and exports Agrochemicals of nearly Rs.100 billion. The Industry has witnessed moderate growth of over 10% annually in the last five years due to increasing farm income leading to higher propensity to spend on crop protection products. In particular, herbicides segment is witnessing huge growth as the rising costs of manual labour make it more economically viable to use herbicides for weeding. The Crop Protection Industry being closely linked to agriculture, market dynamics (changes in crop prices, weather conditions, new product development) exerts a direct impact on demand and supply of agrochemicals. At present, the pesticide use is only for a few crops and in a few States only. Thus, there is a vast scope for expansion in area and crops under assured plant protection coverage.
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Technical View
Technically, if we look at the daily charts of Dhanuka for the last 1 year, we see the stock after hitting a high of around 141 has undergone a long sideways consolidation and took support at around 115, which was where its 200 Day EMA lay at that time before resuming its next up move. While on this upmove the stock again tested its previous high but failed to break above it, This resulted in another leg of correction which is currently visible on charts and we expect the stock could take support at Rs 125 level which is its 100 Day EMA or at Rs 120 that is its 200 Day EMA. On examining the charts, we see the stock has fallen off its upward flag pattern and is now trading just below the lower trend line, so one needs to look out whether the stock manages to re enter the flag pattern and stay inside or whether the stock takes lower trend line as resistance and attracts fresh selling. If we employ Bollinger band here, then we can see that the stock after closing above its upper band started the correction and now is near its lower band, so according to the Bollinger band pattern, one can expect a pull back after the stock getting a close below its lower band and after minor consolidation. That level coincides with the 100 Day EMA of around Rs 125. Momentum oscillator RSI is currently at 45 levels and pointing downwards, so one can expect some more correction or consolidation on the stock before the Oscillator reaches an oversold level. Since the overall trend remains on the upside, investors can look at adding the stock on these declines.
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HDFC Securities Limited, I Think Techno Campus, Building - B, "Alpha", Office Floor 8, Near Kanjurmarg Station, Opp. Crompton Greaves, Kanjurmarg (East), Mumbai 400 042 Phone: (022) 3075 3400 Fax: (022) 2496 5066 Website: www.hdfcsec.com Email: hdfcsecretailresearch@hdfcsec.com Disclaimer: This document has been prepared by HDFC Securities Limited and is meant for sole use by the recipient and not for circulation. This document is not to be reported or copied or made available to others. It should not be considered to be taken as an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any security. The information contained herein is from sources believed reliable. We do not represent that it is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. We may have from time to time positions or options on, and buy and sell securities referred to herein. We may from time to time solicit from, or perform investment banking, or other services for, any company mentioned in this document. This report is intended for non-Institutional Clients
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