Predicting Possible Natural Disasters Robert Slomp

Predicting Possible Natural disasters
models for risk mapping and forecast models Robert Slomp
10 maart 2011
contents
models for risk mapping multi layer risk strategy how we make flood risk maps worst credible floods flood scenarios forecast models we receive weather forecasts
Role of the LCO (set up in 2010), integrating both

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters
10 maart 2011
Multi layer risk strategy
Flood safety policy is a mix of: - Emergency services measures (& planning) - Spatial planning building of a flood resilient environment (housing & services ) - Flood protection: dunes, dikes, barriers
Katrina, New Orleans 2005, wake up call For spatial planning and emergency services
10 maart 2011
Tools to determine flood risk,
a folder is available
4 Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters 10 maart 2011
Worst Credible floods National scenarios Single flood events: - River floods - coastal floods northern coast western coast - Combinations
10 maart 2011
Time table
4300 square km 120 Mld Euro 10.000 casualties
Western coast scenario flood depth after 48 hours
10 maart 2011
Flood forecasting
Storms Two services merged in the Water management center of the Netherlands (WMCN) Stormvloed Seind Dienst (SVSD) for the coast Waarschuwingsdienst Dijken IJsselmeergebied (WDIJ) for the large lakes
10 maart 2011
The Netherlands protected by:
Dikes Dike watch

WMCN Storm surge warning service
Dunes Barriers
10 maart 2011
Meteo forecasts
Organisation Storm surge warning service

WMCN Storm Surge Warning Service
Storm surge Alert Warning by phone call for very high waterlevel Information Advise Dikewatch Warnings
KNMI
(Royal met-office)
Headquarters
Information Rijkswaterstaat
Press Information Radio en TV Alarm by Internet / public phone call for

extreme high waterlevel alerting Waterlevel forecasts
Online measurements Waterlevel Windspeed Winddirection Waves Forecasts Weather Waterlevel
Measurements Waterlevelforecasts Measurements & forecasts
LCO
Measurements Forecasts
Dike-authorities (Water boards) Safety regions (Firebrigade) Provinces Rijkswaterstaat
Decision teams Stormsurge barriers Eastern-Scheldt Krimpen a/d IJssel Maeslant barrier & Hartelcanal
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Hirlam downscaling 50 km grid picture
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Warning levels
Frequency
2/year
1/year
1/5year
Sector Scheldt W Holland Dordrecht Den Helder Harlingen Delfzijl
Basis station Flushing Hook of Holland Dordrecht Den Helder Harlingen Delfzijl
pre-W-level 310 200 260
W-level 330 220 190 270 300
A-level 370 280 250 260 330 380
storm surge barriers SVKY Krimpen a/d IJssel 210* SVKO Roompot buiten 275 300* SVKW Hook of Holland 250 *) level when storm surge barriers will be locked
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
300*
Process of making storm surge warnings
Step 6 Evaluation and validation process and modells Report
1 SVSD Step Step 2 3 Step 5 4 surges Early indication of storm Step 3-12 hrs before 6 SVSD warning system Experience 3-48 hrs before hrs before HW 33-48 8 days before HWHWStep 3-12 hrs before dike watch recommendation Man / Machine alert authorities HIRLAM DCSM8 Meteo water forecast level forecast ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System Waterleveldata alert emergency services Mix closing barriers Every Every 6 hours 6 hours advice Every 12 hours Assimilation publication Every hour Measurements internet Every 3 hours Eastern Scheldt Barrier / Maeslantbarrier
Step Dike Watch
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Storm surge barriers
There are different movable barriers along the Dutch coast: Krimpen aan de IJssel 1957 Haringvliet 1970 Oosterschelde 1986 Nieuwe Waterweg 1997 Hartelkanaal 1997 Different dike (rail)road crossings
Fi Coupure Delfzijl
Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat
Accuracy storm surge forecastings
sometimes it goes wrong
All saints storm tide 1st Nov 2006
Max windspeed
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Windforce 9 Bft
winddirection Track of storm
Models to predict dune erosion

HIS KUST Find picture
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Models to predict run-up on the dikes (WDIJ)

FEWS MEREN Include picture
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LCO National Committee on floods (since 2010)

Integration of risk mapping/scenarios and prediction (using the ten day ensemble prediction) We are never done, improving, our models and improving our skills in using them. (Every storm of river flood is unique, and offers new insights on how nature works) Because of uncertainty and models errors interpretation and flood warnings cannot be automated
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Questions?
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Pictures I will not use, since they are more a matter of the meteorological services
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Ten day ensemble for wind and precipitation
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Predicting Possible Natural Disasters Robert Slomp

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Predicting Possible Natural disasters

models for risk mapping and forecast models Robert Slomp

Role of the LCO (set up in 2010), integrating both

Multi layer risk strategy

Tools to determine flood risk,

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters

4300 square km 120 Mld Euro 10.000 casualties

Western coast scenario flood depth after 48 hours

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters

The Netherlands protected by:

Dikes Dike watch

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters

Organisation Storm surge warning service

Press Information Radio en TV Alarm by Internet / public phone call for

Online measurements Waterlevel Windspeed Winddirection Waves Forecasts Weather Waterlevel

Measurements Waterlevelforecasts Measurements & forecasts

Dike-authorities (Water boards) Safety regions (Firebrigade) Provinces Rijkswaterstaat

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters

Hirlam downscaling 50 km grid picture

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters

Sector Scheldt W Holland Dordrecht Den Helder Harlingen Delfzijl

pre-W-level 310 200 260

W-level 330 220 190 270 300

A-level 370 280 250 260 330 380

Process of making storm surge warnings

Step 6 Evaluation and validation process and modells Report

Step Dike Watch

Storm surge barriers

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat

Accuracy storm surge forecastings

sometimes it goes wrong

All saints storm tide 1st Nov 2006

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters

Models to predict dune erosion

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters

Models to predict run-up on the dikes (WDIJ)

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters

LCO National Committee on floods (since 2010)

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters

Ten day ensemble for wind and precipitation

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters

Ministerie van Verkeer en Waterstaat Predicting Possible Natural disasters

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