Commodities Daily Report

`
Monday| July 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities

Content
News & Market Highlights Chana Oilseeds Edible Oils Spices Sugar Cotton Guar Complex

Research Team
Vedika Narvekar Chief Manager- Agri Commodities vedika.narvekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6130 Shruti Ghanekar Research Associate shruti.ghanekar@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6133 Anuj Choudhary Research Analyst anuj.choudhary@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn. 6132

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company does not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Monday| July 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
NEWS HIGHLIGHTS
Rainfall brightens prospects of a better kharif output
The spurt in rains across central and western India is expected to continue in the second half of July, with the weather office forecasting rainfall to be better this month. This will further help kharif sowing with sown area touching 51.77 million hectare till date. "In the second half of July, the rains will be better," said Laxman Singh Rathore, director general, India Meteorological Department. He said general conditions indicated a fresh cyclonic circulation would be formed over northwest Bay of Bengal during the second half of the week. The western end of the monsoon trough would shift northwards from July 14 onwards leading to good rains. (Source: Economic Times)

Market Highlights (% change)

Last Prev. day

as on July 12, 2013

WoW MoM YoY

Sensex Nifty INR/$ Nymex Crude Oil - $/bbl Comex Gold - $/oz

19958 6009 59.89 105.95 1277.8

1.44 1.25 0.10 0.99 -0.18

2.37 2.40 -0.56 2.64 5.35

4.82 4.32 3.55 10.50 -8.19

15.82 14.78 7.25 23.08 -18.35

.Source: Reuters

Huge wheat stocks at risk in Punjab, Haryana

Even as the UPA Government has geared up to roll out the ambitious food security programme, wheat stored under cover and plinth (CAP), a form of temporary storage, has exceeded 11 million tonnes in Punjab and Haryana, raising the risk of large-scale damage due to vagaries of the monsoon. The stocks in kaccha and pucca CAP storage in the open air, capped with plastic sheets accounted for about 44 per cent of the 25.08 million tonnes of the total wheat procured by the Government from the recent rabi crop. In Punjab and Haryana, wheat procurement stood at 16 mt in April-June. Of the 11 mt, about 7.85 mt are stored in pucca CAP, where the plinth is usually a concrete platform. Another, 3.18 million tonnes are stored on kachha plinths, where the base could be wooden planks or simply stacked on the ground. With the monsoon progressing swiftly this year and covering the country a month in advance, these huge stocks look more vulnerable to the risk of deterioration in quality. (Source: Business Line)

Cotton, oilseeds planting gains on bountiful monsoon

The area under kharif crops has expanded, with acreages of oilseeds and cotton exceeding three-fourth of the normal area on good rains across the country. The planting of soyabean is almost complete, with the acreage exceeding 103 lakh hectare area (ha) as on July 11, almost twice the acreage in the same period last year. Similarly, groundnut acreage has crossed the half way mark of the normal area at 26 lakh ha. The normal area for groundnut is pegged at 49 lakh ha for the season. The good progress in sowing of soyabean and groundnut has boosted total oilseed acreage to 136 lakh ha, more than twice the area this time last year. States such as Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat have also reported a significant increase in oilseeds acreage. In case of cotton, planting is almost over in about 80 per cent of the normal area of 117.53 lakh ha. A higher acreage in Gujarat and Maharashtra has boosted overall acreage to 92.44 lakh ha over last years 65.22 lakh ha. Rice acreage has seen a 13 per cent increase at 110.07 lakh ha over last year on higher plantings in Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Widespread rains across the country continued to progress well, giving a fillip to kharif plantings. The total rainfall since the onset of monsoon season is 19 per cent higher over the same period last year, with about 60 per cent of the country receiving excess rains. (Source:
Business Line dated July 13, 2013)

USDA cuts 2013/14 sugar supply sharply in July

The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) cut its forecast for domestic sugar supplies in 2013/14 (Oct/Sep) by 647,000 short tons to 13.978 mln, raw value, in its July WASDE mainly due to lower imports. The agency reduced forecast 2013/14 imports by 694,000 tons, with cuts in every import category. USDA projects a 350,000-ton shortfall to the TRQ and Mexican imports were lowered 276,000 tons to 1.859 mln. (Source:
www.agranet.com)

Kharif sowing completed in half the area; experts predict bumper harvest this year
As sowing of kharif crops reaches its halfway mark, most analysts and experts have predicted a bumper harvest this year, mainly of oilseeds and pulses, if the weather remains benign in the next few weeks. Officials said given the pace at which sowing operations were continuing across most parts of the country, the entire 107 million hectares of usual kharif acreage would be covered by the end of July, a good 15-20 days before time. Normal acreage is the average of the past five years. Till July 12, sowing was completed on 51.76 million hectares. Timely and welldistributed monsoon season has been the main factor behind the sharp rise in kharif sowing area. (Business Standard)

Thailand pushes to supply rice to Indonesia

The Foreign Ministry affirms that Thailand is pushing ahead with plans to supply up to 1 million tonnes of rice to Indonesia. n March of that year, a memorandum of understanding was signed in which Thailand would supply up to 1 million tonnes of rice to Indonesia. Thailand hopes to sell as much as 3 million tonnes of rice to Indonesia, Bangladesh and the Philippines this year. (Source: Reuters)

Govt orders sale of cotton procured from open market

The Textiles Ministry has given the green signal to the Cotton Corporation of India to release the entire stock of 14 lakh bales (170 kg each) of cotton in the domestic market as the prevailing prices are high enough to ensure that it would not suffer any more losses. The CCI will sell the stock in tranches at the prevailing market rates. Currently, Shankar-6, mainly in demand for exports, is ruling at Rs 42,500 for a candy of 356 kg. The Cotton Corporation had built the stocks by buying some 22.65 lakh bales from the open market as part of the Governments market intervention operation after prices dropped below the minimum support level. It has sold 14 lakh bales in the domestic market when prices were ruling lower than the MSP, leading to losses. (Source: Business
Line dated July 13, 2013)

Weak palm oil prices boon for consumer companies

Palm oil prices had fallen from $1,181 in April last year all the way to $776 a tonne in December. But prices have recovered in 2013 and were at $861 a tonne in June. This rise would have been a source of concern for Indian consumer companies but, thankfully, there has been some letup in July. On Friday, Malaysian palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange fell to their lowest in two months. Falling prices of palm oil have been useful for processed food companies as their input costs have declined. (Source: Mint)

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Monday| July 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Chana
Chana futures remained under downside pressure on account of higher sowing of kharif pulses during the last week. Comfortable supplies and subdued demand for high quality desi Chana also exerted downside pressure on the prices. Spot prices settled 0.64% lower while August futures settled 1.18% lower w-o-w. The Food Ministry is in favor to impose duty on imports by 7.5% to curb imports. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts and yet to be launched contracts of Chana w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. The CCEA declared the MSP for kharif pulses. The MSP of the MSP of Tur has been raised by ` 450 to ` 4,300/qtl, moong by ` 100 to ` 4,500/qtl while Urad has been kept unchanged at ` 4,300/qtl. Pulses sowing has been observed at 25.95 lakh hectares as compared to 13.04 lakh hectares during the same time last year. Sowing of kharif pulses was adversely impacted last year and was down by 16 percent due to deficient rains.

Market Highlights
Unit Chana Spot - NCDEX Chana- NCDEX July'13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

as on July 13, 2013 % change Last 3050 2945 Prev day -1.61 -2.09 WoW -0.64 -2.13 MoM -6.05 -9.38
Source: Reuters

YoY -36.89 -36.61

Spread Matrix
Closing 3050 2945 2989 3052 19-Jul-13 -105 0 -

as on July 13, 2013 20-Aug-13 -61 44 0 20-Sep-13 2 107 63 0 as on July 11, 2013 Stocks as on 10th July 82144 60953 11582 154679 Qty in Process 170 51 548 769

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Bikaner Delhi Indore Total Stocks as on 11th July 82085 60953 11592 154630 Qty in Process 201 101 698 1000

Demand supply scenario

Higher returns earned in 2012, coupled with a hike in minimum support prices (MSP), have helped expand overall chana acreage in 2012-13 season. Chana sowing in 2012-13 was 5.65% higher at 95.17 lakh ha compared to previous year. According to third advance Estimates released on 3 May 2013, Total pulses output for 2012-13 season has been pegged at 18 mn tn, up 5.76% compared to previous year. Out of the total pulses output, kharif output is estimated at 4.03% lower at 5.95 mn tn while rabi pulses output is pegged 9.25% higher at 12.05 mn tn compared with the final estimates of 2011-12. Chana output is pegged marginally lower to 8.49 mn tn compared with its second advance estimates of 8.57 million tonnes. However, chana output is expected to breach its 2010-11 record output of 8.2 mn tn in 2012-13. Erratic weather in M.P. lowered the yield.
rd

Technical Chart - Chana

NCDEX August contract

Trade Scenario
According to IBIS, imports of chana in the month of June 2013 remained steady at 0.01 lakh metric tons. India imports Chana mainly from Australia and Canada and higher availability in these countries at comparatively cheaper rates is seen boosting imports of Chana to meet the domestic shortfall.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Chana may extend the losses of the previous week on the back of higher supplies and smooth sowing progress. Subdued demand for desi chana may also support weakness in prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Chana Aug Futures Unit `/qtl Support

valid for July 15, 2013 Resistance 3020-3060

2920-2950

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Monday| July 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Soybean
Soybean October futures settled 1.27% lower w-o-w on tracking weak international markets as well as higher sowing of the new crop. However, the spot as well as July contract traded higher on account of strong demand for the bean from millers on the back of meal export demand. Also, tight supplies of the bean supported the prices. As per the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, India's oil meal exports rose to 348,946 tonnes in June from 311,089 tonnes a year earlier. Soy meal exports rose to 213,564 tonnes in June, the third month of the 2013/14 fiscal year, from 180,987 tonnes a year ago. Oilseeds were planted in 135.99 la ha as on 12 July, 2013. The same was observed at 67.70 la ha during the corresponding period last year. th Soybean was sown on 28.42 la ha in Maharashtra as on 11 July 2013 as against 26.4 la ha during the same period last year. Similarly, in the states of Gujarat, Rajasthan and Andhra Pradesh, sowing was seen at 0.43, 9.2 and 2.42 la ha respectively. According to the 3rd advance estimates, Soybean output is pegged at 14.14 mn tonnes. IMDs forecasts of normal monsoon have raised hopes of better output next season too. International Markets After trading higher for most part of the week, Soybean futures corrected towards the end of the week on account of profit taking and settled 1.56% lower w-o-w. Prices traded higher as USDA report remained mostly unchanged and concerns over expectations of hotter and dried weather in the US Midwest may affect the crop. USDA has released the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates and has kept the yield unchanged at 44.5 bushel per acre. US Soybean production is projected at 3.42 bn bushels, up 30 mn due to increased harvested area. Harvested area, estimated at 76.9 mn acres in the June 28 Acreage report, is 0.7 mn above the June projection. The 2013/14 U.S. season-average soybean price is forecast at $9.75 to $11.75 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Global soybean production is projected at 285.9 mn tons, up 0.6 mn.
th

Market Highlights

as on July 13, 2013 % Change Prev day WoW -1.43 1.01 -1.33 -2.37 -0.44 -1.14 2.79 -1.56 1.00 -1.54

Unit Soybean Spot- NCDEX Soybean- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean- CBOT July'13 Fut RM Seed Spot- NCDEX RM Seed- NCDEX July '13 Fut
`/qtl `/qtl

Last 3799 3775 1563 3519 3394

MoM -3.26 -1.96 1.46 1.00 -2.58

YoY -16.4 -18 -3.84 -18.2 -21.1

USc/Bsh
`/qtl `/qtl

Source: Reuters

Soybean Spread Matrix

Closing 3799 Spot 19-Jul-13 18-Oct-13 20-Nov-13 3774.5 3115.5 3130 0 -659 0 19-Jul-13 -24.5 18-Oct-13 -683.5

as on July 13, 2013 20-Nov-13 -669 -644.5 14.5 0 as on July 13, 2013 20-Aug-13 -97.85 27 0 20-Sep-13 -58.85 66 39 0 as on July 11, 2013 Qty in Process 30 0 0 30 as on July 11, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 81 0 452 70 119 722 NCDEX October contract

Mustard Seed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3518.85 3394 3421 3460 19-Jul-13 -124.85 0 -

Soybean stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Akola Nagpur Sagar Total Stocks as on 11th July 16792 921 331 18044 Stocks as on 11th July 3040 4549 20688 634 63597 5193 1811 99512 Qty in Process 30 0 0 30 Qty in Process 0 0 81 0 503 91 119 794 Stocks as on 10th July 16841 921 331 18093 Stocks as on 10th July 3040 4549 20688 634 63597 5193 1811 99512

Outlook
Soybean may trade on a mixed note today. Higher sowing and improved crop prospects may pressurize prices. However, prices may recover from lower levels due to tight supplies coupled with good demand from the millers on the back of strong soy meal export demand.

RM Seed stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Alwar Bharatpur Bikaner Hapur Jaipur Kota Sriganganagar Total

Rape/mustard Seed
Mustard seed futures traded on a negative note last week and settled 1.54% due to higher supplies in the domestic markets coupled with an increase in sowing area under kharif oilseeds pressurized prices at higher levels Agriculture ministry in its third advance estimates, pegged mustard output at 7.36 mn tn, up by 11.5%.

Technical Chart Soybean

Outlook
Overall trend in mustard seed remain bearish amidst higher production this season. However, demand at lower levels may support prices.

Technical Levels
Contract Soybean NCDEX Oct Futures RM Seed NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 15, 2013 Support 3060-3085 3350-3390 Resistance 3145-3170 3450-3480
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Monday| July 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Refined Soy Oil
Refine soy oil opened higher last week due to good demand ahead of the festive season. However, prices corrected from higher levels on account of softening soybean far month futures as well as an appreciation in the Rupee. As per a circular by NCDEX dated July 01, 2013, the Minimum Initial Margin has been reduced to 5% of the value of the contract or VaR based margin whichever is higher on all running contracts of Refined Soy oil w.e.f Wednesday, July 3, 2013. Soy oil prices gained last week on account of sharp depreciation in the Indian rupee coupled with firm international palm oil futures. India meet 50-55 percent of its edible consumption through imports and thus rupee factor is a major determinant of edible oil prices. As per the data released by the Solvent Extractors' Association of India, imports of vegetable oils, including non-edible oils, rose 40.2% to 917,964 tn in May, after dropping for 3 months, mainly due to surge in palm oil imports. Monthly soy oil imports rose 2.7% as local supplies are almost exhausted before the new planting season for soybean.

Market Highlights
% Change Unit `/10 kg `/10 kg USc/ Bushel MYR/Tonne `/10 kg Last 691.20 688.50 46.09 2332 501.30 Prev day -0.45 -0.83 -0.86 0.09 -0.12

as on July 12, 2013

Ref Soy oil SpotNCDEX Ref Soy oil- NCDEX July '13 Fut Soybean Oil- CBOTJuly'13 Fut
CPO-Bursa Malaysia July '13 Fut CPO-MCX- July '13 Futures

WoW 0.21 0.08 -2.41 #N/A -2.30

MoM -2.66 -3.23 -4.20 -3.24 1.33

YoY -12.23 -13.25 -13.28 -24.77 -12.27

Source: Reuters

Refined Soy Oil Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 691.2 688.5 669.3 656.6 19-Jul-13 -2.7 0 20-Aug-13 -21.9 -19.2 0 -

as on July 13, 2013 20-Sep-13 -34.6 -31.9 -12.7 0 as on July 13, 2013

Outlook
Soy oil may continue to decline today extending last week losses. However, festive demand may support prices at lower levels. However, prices will also track the Rupee movement in the intraday.

CPO Spread Matrix

31-Jul-13 31-Aug-13 30-Sept-13 Closing 501.3 499.7 495.2 31-Jul-13 0 31-Aug-13 -1.6 0 -

Crude Palm Oil

MCX CPO declined from higher levels last week on the an appreciation in the Rupee and settled 2.3% lower w-o-w. Indonesia has set the export tax for Palm oil at 10.5% for July, up from 9% in June. According to Malaysian Palm oil Board, exports increased by 0.29% against May, while end stocks declined by 9.4%.Exports of Malaysian palm oil products during July 1-15 declined 22.8% at 547,857 tn as against 709,860 tn during June 1-15. Exports in June rose 7 percent due to Ramadan demand. Communal feasting during Ramadan drives up consumption of vegetable oil. India's refined palm oil imports hit a record high in May by jumping 47.5 percent from April. The world's top buyer of vegetable oils imported 373,837 tonnes of refined palm oil in May. The jump in refined palm oil purchases will raise the clamour for increasing import duties to protect local oilseed growers and refiners against cheaper supplies from major exporters Indonesia and Malaysia. But the Indian government is yet to pay any heed as inflation has only just reached comfortable levels.

30-Sept-13 -6.1 -4.5 0 NCDEX August contract

Technical Chart Ref Soy Oil

Technical Chart Crude Palm Oil

MCX July contract

Outlook
CPO prices are expected to trade lower today tracking weak international markets. However, expectations that government may increase import tax on refined edible oils may support prices Rupee depreciation may also support prices at lower levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Soy Oil Aug NCDEX Futures CPO MCX July Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 15, 2013 Support 662-665 506-510 Resistance 672-676 516-520

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Monday| July 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Spices
Jeera
Jeera Futures traded on a positive note last week on account of good overseas demand and settled 1.6% higher w-o-w. However, higher than expected arrivals as well as good rains in the main jeera growing regions capped sharp gains. Currently, about 70% of total arrivals have been traded in the mandis. According to IBIS, India exported 12178 tn of jeera in May. The major destinations were UAE, Nepal, Vietnam and USA. In the global markets, there is a supply crunch due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions in Syria and Turkey, which has raised supply concerns from these two major exporting countries. Export orders are diverted to India. Production is also expected to decline in Syria and Turkey. 1 percent Jeera of Indian origin is being offered in Singapore at $2,345 tn (FOB Mumbai).

Market Highlights
Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl Last 13771 13520 5595 5718 Prev day 0.30 0.02 0.00 0.32

as on July 13, 2013 % Change WoW 0.95 1.60 -1.14 -0.31 MoM 2.46 4.12 1.28 4.50 YoY -11.4 -12.7 20.7 15.14

Jeera Spot- NCDEX Jeera- NCDEX July '13 Fut Turmeric Spot- NCDEX Turmeric- NCDEX July '13 Fut

Source: Reuters

Jeera Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 13770.6 13520 13750 14030 19-Jul-13 -250.6 0 20-Aug-13 -20.6 230 0 -

as on July 13, 2013 20-Sep-13 259.4 510 280 0 as on July 13, 2013 19-Jul-13 122.55 0 20-Aug-13 204.55 82 0 20-Sep-13 258.55 136 54 0 as on July 11, 2013 Stocks as on Qty in 10th July Process 1266 7144 8410 6831 NCDEX August contract 155 27 182 546

Arrivals production and Exports

Arrivals in Unjha were reported at 8,000 bags on Saturday. Exports of Jeera in 2012 - 2013 stood at 79,900 tn, an increase of 75%. (Source:
Spices Board)

Turmeric Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 5595.45 5718 5800 5854

Production of Jeera in 2012-13 is expected around 40-45 lakh bags (55 kgs each), marginally higher than 40 lakh bags last year. Carryover stocks from 2011-12 harvest were around 8-9 lakh bags.

Outlook
Jeera is expected trade higher extending last weeks gains on account of overseas demand. However, good supplies may cap upside. Overall trend remains positive for Jeera due to overseas demand, as Syria & Turkey are not supplying which may keep the prices firm.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Jeera Turmeric Jodhpur Unjha Total Nizamabad Stocks as on 11th July 1344 6904 8248 7088 Qty in Process 77 66 143 267

Turmeric
Turmeric futures traded on a mixed note with a negative bias last week tracking the sowing progress. Lower than expected local demand has also kept prices under check. However, good overseas demand has limited sharp downside in the prices. The spot as well as the Futures settled 1.14% and 0.31% lower w-o-w.

Technical Chart Jeera

Production, Arrivals and Exports

Arrivals Nizamabad and Erode mandi were reported at 2,000 bags and 4,000 bags respectively on Friday. Sowing of Turmeric in AP is reported th at 0.26 lakh ha as on 10 July, 2013 as against 0.23 lakh ha last year and a normal sowing of 0.26 lakh ha. Production in 2012-13 is expected around 45 lakh bags, lower by 4050%. It is estimated that current years carryover stocks would be around 10 lakh bags. (1 bag= 75 kgs). Exports for 2012-13 stood at 80,050 tn, marginally higher than 79,500 tn last year. (Source: Spices Board) Outlook Turmeric may trade on a mixed note with a negative bias today. Higher sowing coupled with good monsoon progress may cap the upside and pressurize prices at higher levels. Huge carryover stocks are also likely to keep prices under check. However, good overseas as well as demand from North India may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Chart Turmeric

NCDEX August contract

Technical Outlook
Jeera NCDEX Aug Futures Turmeric NCDEX Aug Futures Unit `/qtl `/qtl

Valid for July 15, 2013

Support 13400-13550 5690-5740 Resistance 13950-14100 5840-5900
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Monday| July 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Sugar
Sugar Futures traded on a mixed note with a negative bias last week and settled 0.9% lower w-o-w on account of expectations of recovery in the cane yield due to improving monsoon conditions in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Weak demand from the bulk consumers and sufficient supplies also pressurized prices. However, prices recovered from lower levels as the government notified its decision to increase the import duty on sugar to 15% from 10%. Demand from the bulk consumers such as Ice cream and beverage manufacturers generally decline during the monsoon as rainfall brings down temperature. Indian traders have signed deals to export 75,000 tonnes of white sugar in July, reversing an import trend after the rupee's depreciation and with strong demand in Gulf and African states due to the Islamic fasting month of Ramadan. (Source: Reuters dated 1st July, 2013) According to the Ministry of Agriculture, Sugarcane has been planted in 48.4 lakh ha as compared to 50.04 lakh ha as drought affected Maharashtra and Karnataka have reported lower area.

Market Highlights
Unit Sugar SpotNCDEX Sugar M- NCDEX July '13 Fut Sugar No 5- LiffeAug'13 Fut Sugar No 11-ICE July '13 Fut `/qtl 2967 `/qtl 480 $/tonne 356.89 $/tonne -0.25 0.25 0.00 Last 3063

as on July 12, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW 0.20 0.04 -0.90 -3.25 -1.23 MoM -0.27 -3.01 1.03 -0.93 YoY -8.19 -8.14 -26.24 -28.50

Source: Reuters

Sugar Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 3063.15 2967 3048 3082 19-Jul-13 -96.15 0 20-Aug-13 -15.15 81 0 -

as on July 12, 2013 20-Sep-13 18.85 115 34 0

Domestic Production and Exports

After producing surplus sugar in the current season, sugar output is expected to decline in 2013-14 season on account of lower plantings. According to ISMA, Indias Sugar production between October -April stood at 24.52 mn tn, lower by 3 percent during the same period last year. Maharashtras production dipped 10% to 8 mn tn while production in Uttar Pradesh increased by 7% to 7.43 mn tn. India is likely to produce 24.6 mn tn of sugar in 2012-13 year ending on Sept. 30, higher than the previous estimate of 24.3 mn tn, the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA) said. With the opening stocks of 6.5 mn tn, domestic Sugar supplies are estimated at higher against the domestic consumption of around 22.5 mln tn for 2012-13.

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Delhi Kolhapur Sangli Solapur Total Stocks as on 11th July 2548 6387 1022 1228 11185 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0 Stocks as on 10th July 2548 7797 1022 1228 12595

as on July 11, 2013 Qty in Process 0 0 0 0 0

Technical Chart - Sugar

NCDEX August contract

Global Sugar Updates

LIFFE as well as ICE Sugar futures declined by 3.25% and 1.23% last week as Rabobank predicted a fourth year of sugar surplus. Prices have also declined due to abundant supplies from Brazil coupled with expectations of a dry July which may boost the harvesting and crushing. Sugar production in Brazil's main cane-growing region which was up by almost 59% till May fell in first half of June because wet weather held up crushing. Since April 1 to 15 June, mills have produced 7.39 mn tn of sugar, up 51%. Mills have used 58.1% of the cane crush for ethanol since the start of the season - up sharply from 54.4% at this time last year - with the rest used for sugar. Prices have declined sharply over the past few months and touched three years low last week due to three back to back years of sugar surplus coupled with supplies from Brazil.
Source: Telequote

Outlook
Sugar may trade with a negative bias today on expectations of improvement in the output. However, an increase in import duty and reports of fresh export deals may support prices at lower levels.

Technical Outlook
Contract Sugar Aug NCDEX Futures Unit `/qtl

valid for July 15, 2013 Support 2980-3020 Resistance 3080-3100

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Monday| July 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Kapas
NCDEX Kapas Futures as well as MCX Cotton declined by 3.68% and 1.5% last week on account of good monsoon and higher sowing so far in the country. An appreciation in the Rupee also guided the prices southwards. The regulator has reduced position limit in cotton futures to 1.95 lk th bales for member levels and 65,000 bales at client level wef 5 July 2013. With the cotton season nearing its end, arrivals have declined considerably. According to CCI, Cotton arrivals since the beginning of the seaosn (Oct 2012- Sep 2013) is reported at 318.62, down 2.2 percent compared to same period last year.

Market Highlights
Unit `20 kgs `/Bale USc/Lbs Last 1019.5 19650 85.13 92.15

as on July 12, 2013 % Change Prev. day WoW -0.54 -3.68 -0.30 -1.50 -0.06 1.73 -1.92 -0.91 MoM YoY -3.68 #N/A 1.08 8.09 -5.47 22.74 -1.02 10.43
Source: Reuters

NCDEX Kapas Apr Fut MCX Cotton July Fut ICE Cotton Cot look A Index

Cotton Spread Matrix

Closing 28-Jun-13 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 19650 20420 19910 28-Jun-13 0

as on July 12, 2013 31-Jul-13 31-Oct-13 770 0 260 -510 0

Sowing Progress
Cotton planting has seen a significant increase in sowing at 92.44 la ha as th on 12 July 2013 as against 65.22 la ha during the same period last year. A considerable increase in cotton acreage is observed in Gujarat wherein sowing was reported at 22.71 la ha on 12 July 2013, up from 8.6 la ha last year. Similarly, sowing in Rajasthan and AP was seen at 3.29 la ha and 13.2 la ha respectively. In Maharashtra, however, cotton sowing was reported at 28.95 la ha which is less as compared to the sowing here during the same period last year which was 33.6 la ha.

Cotton Stock Position at MCX Warehouse

Location Aurangabad Stocks as on 11th July 10300 5900 117000 22800 900 100 157000

as on July 11, 2013

Stocks as on 10th July 10300 5900 117000 23300 900 100 157410 NCDEX April contract

Domestic Production and Consumption

Cotton Advisory Board (CAB) in its latest meet dated 17 April 2013 has projected cotton crop at 34 mn bales for 2012-13 season compared to the previous estimates of 33 mn bales. Mill consumption is expected to go up from 22.3 million bales last year to 23.5 million bales. Exports are estimated at 8.1 mn bales while imports are estimated 2.5 mn bales. However, Cotton Association of Indias estimates differ from that of the CAB which pegs cotton output for 2012-13 at 35.2 million bales as on May 31 down 6% compared with 37.3 million bales in 2011-12.
th

Yavatmal Rajkot Kadi Sendhwa Warangal Total

Technical Chart - Kapas

Global Cotton Updates

ICE Cotton corrected 0.06% on Friday extending previous days losses after the USDA monthly report increased its forecast for global stocks to 94.34mn bales from its previous forecast of 92.49 mn bales. The report also reduced US export estimates for 2012-13 crop year. Prices had gained earlier this week amidst host of factors like dry weather worries, talk of renewed Chinese buying, and a steep decline in the dollar. ICAC has lowered projections for global production and endings stocks for the 2013/14 crop year. Reports indicate that textile mills in China are seeking permission to import more cotton. As per USDA acreage report, the estimate for U.S. cotton planted acreage is down 17% from 2012, but is up from March 2013 estimates. There are expectations that Brazil may import around 2 lakh tonnes of cotton by the end of the year due to demand from the textile industry.

Technical Chart - Cotton

MCX July contract

Outlook
Kapas is expected to decline due to weak international prices as well as good domestic planting. However, demand from the yarn and textile industry coupled with ICACs estimates of lower global production may support prices.

Technical Outlook
Contract Kapas NCDEX April 14 Fut Cotton MCX July Futures Unit `/20 kgs `/bale

valid for July 15, 2013 Support 990-1005 19330-19500 Resistance 1035-1050 19870-20000
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

`
Monday| July 15, 2013

Agricultural Commodities
Guar Complex
Guar seed as well as Guar gum October Futures traded on bearish note last week on account of higher sowing, improved rains in the guar belt, as well as comfortable supplies. However, prices recovered from lower levels on account of short coverings and settled 4.47% and 3.45% lower respectively w-o-w. Prices have been on a declining trend on reports of improved rains, higher sowing and comfortable supplies. Since the resumption of Guar seed and Guar gum contracts on the futures platform, prices are on a downward trend on account of host of factors like bumper summer harvest in Gujarat, smooth monsoon progress and expected higher sowing.

Market Highlights
Unit Guar Seed SpotNCDEX Guar Seed- NCDEX July 13 Fut Guar Gum SpotNCDEX Guar Gum- NCDEX July13 Fut `/qtl 7050 `/qtl 19898 `/qtl 20150 `/qtl 1.61 0.90 1.88 Last Prev day 7029 1.22

as on July 13, 2013 % change WoW -5.19 -4.47 -4.93 -3.45 MoM -2.92 0.57 -3.90 -0.79 YoY #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Monsoon and Sowing

For the country as a whole, cumulative rainfall during this years monsoon has so far upto 10th July has been 19% above the LPA. For the first time this year, monsoon hit almost every part of Rajasthan th on 8 July. Western Rajasthan, which remained dry till now, also received mild to moderate showers. (Source: Times of India). Light to moderate rain occurred at many places in Ajmer, Jaipur, Bharatpur, Kota, Alwar, Karauli, Bhilwara and other districts. Likewise mild showers were witnessed in the western districts including Jodhpur, Jaisalmer, Barmer, Churu and Bikaner. Bikaner witnessed a maximum rain as it recorded a rain of 90 mm. The Met office in its forecast said that southwest monsoon will gain momentum in the next two days. According to Rajasthan Farm Department, Guarseed acreage as on 27 June, 2013 stood at 3.4 lakh hectares compared with 46000 hectares sown last year.
th

Source: Reuters

NCDEX Guarseed Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 7028.55 7050 5390 5300 19-Jul-13 21.45 0 20-Aug-13 -1638.55 -1660 0 -

as on July 13, 2013 20-Sep-13 -1728.55 -1750 -90 0 as on July 13, 2013 20-Aug-13 -4427.5 -4680 0 20-Sep-13 -4647.5 -4900 -220 0 as on July 11, 2013 Stocks as on 9 July 59 81
th

NCDEX Guar gum Spread Matrix

Spot 19-Jul-13 20-Aug-13 20-Sep-13 Closing 19897.5 20150 15470 15250 19-Jul-13 252.5 0 -

Stock Position at NCDEX warehouse

Location Deesa Bikaner Stocks as on 10th July 59 121 Qty in Process 0 0

Guarseed area increased significantly Last year. With favorable monsoon and higher returns acreage may remain higher in the coming season too.

Qty in Process 0 0

Technical Chart - Guar Seed

NCDEX October contract

Production and Exports

According to Rajasthan Farm Departments third advance estimates, Guarseed production stood at 20.23 lakh tonnes in 2012-13. Although production is higher compared to the previous year, but still it is much below the initial expectations on account of erratic monsoon last year. In the coming season, higher sowing along with timely rains may boost guar production across India. However, if rains turn truant in the major guar growing areas, then this may adversely impact output. Exports which touched record 7.07 lakh tonnes in the FY 2011-12, declined in the FY 2012-13 as US, the largest importer of Guar gum has stocked huge inventories. During the FY 2012-13, guar gum exports stood at 4.58 lakh tonnes during April 2012-February 2013. US has stocked

Technical Chart - Guar Gum

NCDEX October contract

Outlook
Guar prices are expected to decline in the coming days on expectations that monsoon will gain momentum further in the largest guar growing state of Rajasthan, Higher sowing and thereby higher output may keep sentiments weak in the near term.

Technical Outlook
Contract Guar Seed Oct (NCDEX) Guar Seed Oct (MCX) Guar Gum Oct (NCDEX) Guar Gum Oct (MCX) Unit `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl `/qtl

valid for July 15, 2013 Support 5100-5200 5050-5250 14950-15100 15150-15350 Resistance 5500-5700 5500-5650 15550-15700 15700-15850
Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com