11th National Convention on Statistics (NCS) EDSA Shangri-La Hotel October 4-5, 2010

RAINFALL VARIABILITY IN THE PHILIPPINES

by Laura David, Fernando Siringan, Tolentino Moya and Flaviana Hilario

For additional information, please contact: Authors name Designation Affiliation Address Tel. no. E-mail Authors name Designation Affiliation Address Tel. no. E-mail Authors name Designation Affiliation Address Tel. no. E-mail Authors name Designation Affiliation Address Laura David Professor, UP-Marine Science Institute University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City +632-9223962 ltd_pawikan@yahoo.com Fernando Siringan Professor, UP-Marine Science Institute University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City +632-9223962 ando.msi@gmail.com Tolentino Moya Professor, Institute of Environmental Science and Meteorology College of Science University of the Philippines Diliman, Quezon City +632-9818500 loc. 3941 Flaviana Hilario Chief, Climatology and Agrometeorology Division Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) Science Garden Complex Agham Road, Diliman, Quezon City PHILIPPINES 110

Rainfall Variability in the Philippines

Laura David Fernando Siringan Toti Moya Flaviana Hilario

Global Scenarios and limitations of scale

IPCC Scenarios
http://www.enr.gov.nt.ca/_live/pages/wpPages/s oe_big_picture.aspx

MODIFIED CORONAS

Downscale modeling
GCM 300km resolution

PAGASAPRECISDownscaledto 25x25kmA1BScenario Projectionfor2050

RCM 25km resolution

AVERAGE % CHANGE

Quezon City

Manila

Long Duration Extreme Drought

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/

1860

1864

1859-64

1865-1990

Annual rainfall in Manila

(from Vaquero et al., 2005. Early meteorological records of Manila:El Nino episode of 1864, Atmosfera 18 (3) 149-155.)

Drought events reconstructed from coral 18O records (from Berdin 2010)
Coral age (ka thousand years) Duration (in years) of longest dry period

2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1cm

Modern 2.3 ka 3.7 ka 5.4 ka 5.8 ka 7.2 ka 7.6 ka

3 3 5 4 10 3 7

Weshouldpreparea10yr managementplan

Paleo-average precipitation for Metro Manila from lake sediment (Zamora et al., in prep)
Wetter than present
0.32

Dry Bulk density [g/cc]

Drier than present

Wet
Relative Rainfall

0.28

0.24

0.2

Rainfall trends over the Laguna de Bay watershed

0 200 400 600

0.16 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Dry
2200

Calendar Age

Hind-Casting & Prediction (?)

1499y 842y 145y
0.32

Dry Bulk density [g/cc]

227y, 350y and 183y

Wet
Relative Rainfall

0.28

0.24

0.2

Rainfall trends over the Laguna de Bay watershed

0 200 400 600

0.16 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000

Dry
2200

(Zamora et al., in prep)

Calendar Age

So?
Records tell us that there is natural variability in precipitation. We should improve our understanding of this variability so that we can develop appropriate adaptation strategies. We can utilize developed technologies and systems to prepare for drought or flood events. But we also need to install additional rain gauges upstream of population centers for flood forecasting.