Major forecast changes Major trends Fed ECB Riksbank Norges Bank Nationalbanken USD rates EUR rates GBP JPY CHF SEK NOK Oil Metals
lower market rates or slower tapering low rates for an extended period the rate cut window is closing on hold until Q4 2014 sidelined sell-off looks excessive yields to fall in the near term stronger on Fed tapering Carney may not be a game-changer caught between Abenomics and Fed tapering floored but no ones counting long term it is way above its average fair value model points to 7.90 political risk premium supports oil price lower price path on market surplus
Market rates
Commodities Tables
2
Anders Svendsen
Johnny Bo Jakobsen
Johnny Bo Jakobsen
The Fed sticks to its data-dependent tapering plan, though Bernankes message is that high market rates could slow the recovery and thus postpone tapering. In Q3 2013 the US recovery is expected to gain more traction again and in September we expect the Fed to begin tapering its purchases, with a complete halt to QE3 in Q1 2014, when we see the unemployment rate reaching 7%. With signals that the Fed is willing to accept higher inflation, we believe that the first rate hike will come in Q1 2015. Following the first rate hike, however, we see the Fed raising rates rather aggressively (around 200 bp per year) in order to contain inflation. See all research on the Fed here.
5
11 % 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 90
Fed's 6.5% threshold
% 11 10 9 8 7
Oct 2014 Feb 2015
6 5 4 3
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
12
14
Anders Svendsen
Significant risk of one more refi rate cut during the coming months and even a deposit rate cut.
Maybe as little as one month of bad numbers is enough to prompt a cut.
We expect the first rate hike in the beginning of 2015. See all research on the ECB here.
We expect unchanged policy rates until December 2014 when we expect the first rate hike. Norges Bank signalled in the last MPR a 50% probability of a rate cut at the next meeting in September. If the NOK remains much weaker than Norges Banks forecast, we would need some very weak key figures to justify a rate cut in September. So far key figures have been neutral compared to Norges Banks view. A rate hike will not be on the table for a long time as we expect inflation to stay well below Norges Banks target, growth to show a more moderate pace and unemployment slightly higher.
3.25 3.00 2.75 2.50 2.30 2.25 2.00 2.00 1.76 1.75 1.50 1.25 Oct-10 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.68 1.75 1.94 2.15
Apr-11
Oct-11
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
3m NIBOR
Market implied
31Dec13 30Jun14 31Dec14 1.50 1.70 2.14 2.84 3.54 1.50 1.70 2.31 3.00 3.64 1.75 1.95 2.84 3.41 3.88
Nationalbanken: sidelined
Since January the Danish central bank has not intervened in the FX market. Over the last months the DKK has been very stable against the EUR. Assuming an unchanged ECB policy rate, we expect the central banks lending rate to be unchanged over the remainder of the year. In 2014 the central bank will likely resume the gradual normalisation of monetary policy, taking the lending rate to the ECB level as we head towards the end of 2014.
7.465 EUR/DKK 7.460 7.455 7.450 7.445 7.440 7.435 7.430 7.425 08 09 10 11 12 13 Central bank intervention>>
Central parity
<<EUR/DKK
31Dec13 30Jun14 31Dec14 0.20 0.35 0.65 1.40 2.35 2.95 0.35 0.45 1.00 1.75 2.55 3.10 0.50 0.55 1.50 2.20 2.85 3.35
10
1.0 Jan-11
Jul-11
Feb-12 Germany
Aug-12 US
Mar-13
11
EUR/USD Actual
USD 1.50
Model forecast based on Nordea's swap rate forecast
1.40 1.30
10
11
12
13
USDJPY
65 2008
2009
2010 USDJPY
2012
2013
0 2014
Source:Nordea, Bloomberg
14
EURCHF
CDS spread
feb 11
feb 12
jan 13
+/- 1 stdev
The long-term forecast is based on our forecast for interest rate differentials, oil prices and historical average implied volatility.
8.20 8.15 8.10 8.05 8.00 7.95 7.90 7.85 7.80 7.75 7.70 7.65 7.60 7.55 7.50 7.45 7.40 7.35 7.30 7.25 7.20 7.15 7.10 7.05 May12
Cut/hike
Jul12
Meeting
Sep12
Nov12
Jan13
EURNOK
Mar13
May13
Neutral EURNOK
17
m barrels
10
13
16
19
22
25
28
31
34
37
40
43
46
49
52
5y range
2013
2012
2011
5 year avg
Bjrnar Tonhaugen
4.5 ('000) USD/tonne 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 Nickel, rhs Zinc
Tables
20
Financial forecasts
Policy rates
Country US Japan Euro area Denmark Sweden Norway UK Switzerland Poland Czech Rep. Hungary Romania Turkey Russia Kazakhstan South Africa China India Brazil Mexico Spot 0.25 0.10 0.50 0.20 1.00 1.50 0.50 0.00 2.50 0.05 4.25 5.00 4.50 8.25 5.50 5.00 6.00 7.25 8.50 4.00 3M 0.25 0.10 0.50 0.20 1.00 1.50 0.50 0.00 0.05 4.25 5.25 4.50 8.25 5.50 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.25 4.00 chg 31-Dec-13 chg 0.25 0.10 0.50 0.20 1.00 1.50 0.50 0.00 0.05 4.25 5.25 4.50 8.00 5.50 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.50 4.00 30-Jun-14 chg 0.25 0.10 0.50 0.35 1.25 1.50 0.50 0.00 0.05 4.50 5.50 4.75 8.00 6.25 5.50 6.00 7.00 8.75 4.25 31-Dec-14 chg 0.25 0.10 0.50 0.50 1.50 1.75 0.50 0.00 3.50 1.00 5.25 5.75 5.50 8.00 7.25 6.00 6.25 7.25 9.50 5.00 -
2.50 - 0.25
2.50 - 0.25
2.50 - 0.25
Note: chg is the change in percentage points from forecasts 24 June to current forecasts.
21
Financial forecasts
Govies
Germany Leading rate 3M 2Y 5Y 10Y 30Y 5Y-2Y 10Y-2Y 30Y-10Y Spot 0.50 0.22 0.08 0.50 1.51 2.37 0.42 1.44 0.85 Spot 0.50 1.05 1.85 2.43 0.55 1.35 0.58 3M 0.50 0.20 0.00 0.35 1.30 2.25 0.35 1.30 0.95 3M 0.35 0.75 1.55 2.25 0.40 1.20 0.70 chg chg 31-Dec-13 chg 0.50 0.20 0.15 0.90 1.90 2.65 0.75 1.75 0.75 30-Jun-14 chg 0.50 0.30 0.50 1.25 2.10 2.80 0.75 1.60 0.70 31-Dec-14 chg 0.50 0.40 1.10 1.80 2.40 3.00 0.70 1.30 0.60 -
Swap rate
US 2Y 5Y 10Y 30Y 5Y-2Y 10Y-2Y 30Y-10Y 31-Dec-13 chg 0.90 1.70 2.75 3.50 0.80 1.85 0.75 30-Jun-14 chg 1.50 2.30 2.95 3.70 0.80 1.45 0.75 31-Dec-14 chg 2.50 3.15 3.50 4.10 0.65 1.00 0.60 -
Swap rate
EUR 2Y 5Y 10Y 30Y 5Y-2Y 10Y-2Y 30Y-10Y 31-Dec-13 chg 0.45 1.20 2.15 2.90 0.75 1.70 0.75 30-Jun-14 chg 0.80 1.55 2.35 3.05 0.75 1.55 0.70 31-Dec-14 chg 1.30 2.00 2.65 3.30 0.70 1.35 0.65 -
Note: chg is the change in percentage points from forecasts 24 June to current forecasts.
22
Financial forecasts
FX forecasts
Currencies EUR/USD EUR/JPY EUR/GBP EUR/CHF EUR/SEK EUR/NOK EUR/PLN EUR/RON EUR/CZK EUR/TRY EUR/RUB USD/JPY USD/GBP USD/TRY USD/CHF USD/DKK USD/SEK USD/NOK USD/PLN USD/RUB USD/CNY USD/INR USD/BRL USD/KZT USD/MXN USD/ZAR Spot 1.315 131.64 0.861 1.237 8.595 7.843 4.233 4.420 25.92 2.519 42.50 100.14 1.527 1.916 0.941 5.673 6.538 5.966 3.220 32.33 6.137 59.44 2.246 153.1 12.50 9.821 3M 1.30 125.6 0.83 1.25 8.45 7.80 4.15 4.40 25.80 2.37 42.09 97.00 1.56 1.83 0.97 5.76 6.53 6.02 3.20 32.50 6.15 60.00 2.10 152.00 12.50 9.60 chg 3.2 3.2 0.8 9.1 31-Dec-13 chg 1.25 125.0 0.82 1.25 8.45 7.80 4.05 4.25 25.60 2.28 40.00 100.00 1.52 1.82 1.00 5.96 6.76 6.24 3.24 32.00 6.10 58.00 2.00 153.00 12.30 9.20 6.7 6.7 0.8 6.4 30-Jun-14 chg 1.20 126.0 0.80 1.250 8.200 7.750 4.000 4.200 25.20 2.180 38.04 105.00 1.500 1.817 1.042 6.213 6.833 6.458 3.333 31.70 6.000 56.00 1.950 155.0 12.200 8.500 3.9 3.9 1.7 4.7 31-Dec-14 chg 1.15 126.5 0.78 1.30 8.20 7.70 3.95 4.10 24.30 2.00 36.23 110.00 1.47 1.74 1.13 6.48 7.13 6.70 3.43 31.50 5.90 52.00 1.90 157.00 12.50 7.80 5.0 5.0 3.5 4.0 -
Note: chg is the percentage change from forecasts 24 June to current forecasts.
23
Financial forecasts
Commodities
Metals Aluminum Copper Gold Nickel Silver Zinc Spot 1,773 6,920 1,318 13,980 20.0 1,834 2013 1,973 7,343 1,500 15,149 26.0 1,894 chg 2014 2,275 7,500 1,400 16,000 24.0 2,200 chg -
chg -
Note: chg is the percentage change from forecasts 24 June to current forecasts. Commodity forecasts are average prices over periods.
24
Global Research
Global Strategy Global Research
Steen V. Grndahl Senior Director & Head of Global Research steen.grondahl@nordea.com +45 33331453 / +45 6122 2388 Dmitry Savchenko, CFA, Chief Economist* Focus: Russia dmitry.savchenko@nordea.ru +7 495 7773477, ext. 4194 Tnu Palm, Chief Economist* Focus: Estonia tonu.palm@nordea.com +372 6283345 Andris Strazds, Chief Economist* Focus: Latvia andris.strazds@nordea.com +371 6700 5252 Annika Lindblad, Analyst* Focus: Czech Republic, Hungary & Turkey annika.lindblad@nordea.com +358 9 165 59940 / +358 50 34 88545 Zygimantas Mauricas, Chief Economist* Focus: Lithuania zygimantas.mauricas@nordea.com +370 5265 7198 Heidi stergaard, Assistant Analyst Focus: Data mining, support ostergaard.heidi@nordea.com +45 3333 6102 Henrik L. Rasmussen, Assistant Analyst Focus: Data mining, support henrik.l.rasmussen@nordea.com +45 3333 4007 Jan von Gerich, Chief Analyst Focus: Fixed Income Strategy (Euro) jan.vongerich@nordea.com +358 9 165 59937 / +358 500 405 182 Christian Brjesson, Chief Analyst Focus: Fixed Income Strategy (US) christian.borjesson@nordea.com +46 8614 7884 / +46 7611 80622 Fredrik Floric, Chief Analyst Focus: Fixed Income Strategy (Scandi) fredrik.floric@nordea.com +46 8614 8215 / +46 70 235 1078 Aurelija Augulyte, CFA, Senior Analyst Focus: FX Strategy aurelija.augulyte@nordea.com +45 3333 6437 / +45 6122 3247 Fredrik L. Paulsson, Analyst Focus: FX Strategy fredrik.l.paulsson@nordea.com +45 3333 6437 / +45 6122 3247 Bjrnar Tonhaugen, Senior Analyst Focus: Commodities (Energy and metals) bjornar.tonhaugen@nordea.com +47 2248 7959 / +47 4666 2509 Thina M. Saltvedt, Chief Analyst* Focus: Oil and global commodities thina.margrethe.saltvedt@nordea.com +47 2248 7993 Emil Kuch Jrgensen, Assistant Analyst Focus: Data mining, support emil.kuch.jorgensen@nordea.com +45 3333 1502
* Reports to local manager
Global Macro
Helge Pedersen, Global Chief Economist* Focus: Global & Denmark helge.pedersen@nordea.com +45 3333 3126 / +45 2269 7912 Johnny Bo Jakobsen, Chief Analyst Focus: North America johnny.jakobsen@nordea.com +45 3333 6178 / +45 6122 4550 Anders Svendsen, Chief Analyst Focus: Europe anders.svendsen@nordea.com +45 3333 3951 / +45 6122 4549 Dr. Holger Sandte, Chief Analyst Focus: Europe holger.sandte@nordea.com +45 3333 1191 / +45 6122 3076 Amy Zhuang, CFA, Senior Analyst Focus: Asia amy.yuan.zhuang@nordea.com +45 3333 5607 / +45 6122 2287 Piotr Bujak, Chief Economist* Focus: Poland piotr.bujak@nordea.com +48 2252 13651 / +48 693 333 127
25
Nordea Markets is the name of the Markets departments of Nordea Bank Norge ASA, Nordea Bank AB (publ), Nordea Bank Finland Plc and Nordea Bank Danmark A/S. The information provided herein is intended for background information only and for the sole use of the intended recipient. The views and other information provided herein are the current views of Nordea Markets as of the date of this document and are subject to change without notice. This notice is not an exhaustive description of the described product or the risks related to it, and it should not be relied on as such, nor is it a substitute for the judgement of the recipient. The information provided herein is not intended to constitute and does not constitute investment advice nor is the information intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. The information contained herein has no regard to the specific investment objectives, the financial situation or particular needs of any particular recipient. Relevant and specific professional advice should always be obtained before making any investment or credit decision. It is important to note that past performance is not indicative of future results. Nordea Markets is not and does not purport to be an adviser as to legal, taxation, accounting or regulatory matters in any jurisdiction. This document may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without the prior written consent from Nordea Markets.
Thank you!
Global Research, Nordea Markets
26