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A Thought paper that tries to identify safer growth opportunities for global investors in

Turbulent Market. By-Amit Bhushan Date 16th Mat 2009.

Qualitative Analysis of Demand Dynamics Points Healthy Growth


Rate for below 8 Sectors in India

Financial upheaval in Global been liberalized). Since the


Markets has upset many countries contribution of Exports &
& industries. Demand has been International investments towards
particularly low for Capital Goods, the economic growth was much
Household Durables, Reality, less than in many other Asian
Automobiles, and Toys etc. countries, the effect on these has
Geogarphically, the US, most of not caused much damage. Though,
Western Europe, Japan, Korea etc, it may be noted the Export sector
are in recession with serious is surely looking down with Job
implications in demand from Middle losses in that field, however much
East (due to fall in Oil prices). of the economy has largely
Much of developing world including escaped the burnt, more so
BRICS witnessing abatement in because Import dependent Export
demand as consumers want of Diamonds, Jewelry,
stability of economy and financial Petrochemicals etc. if removed,
reassurance. Food products, effective exports (based largely on
Pharma & consumer goods (non- local supplies) shall come down to
durables) are among the few just about 7-8% of GDP. However
sectors that have not been much on the Services Exports front, IT
affected, although even in these exports segment which was one
industries the profit margins are amongst the major drivers of
down. Investors, the world over are Services exports shall probably
busy making assessments about escape with only a little
the shape of emerging demand- moderation in its rate of growth,
supply dynamics and how & which again because India is amongst the
corporate offers or has most competitive supply source &
opportunities to capitalize on has a low market penetration of
emerging opportunities. Quite a only about 3% of the global
few are on lookout to identify outsource services market (in
“Safe” markets and sectors to spite of all the hype
invest into. surrounding it). On the capital
markets front, no doubt with
Luckily, India is one country Portfolio Investors exiting
which has only been moderately developing markets in hordes has
affected (or relatively much less brought down key Indian indices
affected) by the Global turmoil. like NIFTY & SENSEX to about half
This is because of its limited the level from their peaks in
integration with the Global Markets January 2008. This was more due
with Exports being less than 11- to enhanced perception of Risk
12% of GDP, Relatively Restricted associated with the developing
Entry for Foreign Investors (Read countries, increased currency
low dependency on FDI), and volatility, redemptions pressure
Limited integration with Global from portfolio investors back home
Financial Markets (other than some and not so clear policy directions
portfolio investments which have from regulatory institutions like

By: Amit Bhushan Contact: amitbhushan@rediffmail.com


Author works with a major International Bank in India. Views expressed are personal
A Thought paper that tries to identify safer growth opportunities for global investors in
Turbulent Market. By-Amit Bhushan Date 16th Mat 2009.
RBI, SEBI etc. especially towards segment (as a loss of confidence
the interests of portfolio investors among consumers). All this coupled
(tinkering with disclosure with an already depressed capital
standards, restriction on purposes market & a lack of clear political
for which inward flows were direction due to pending General
permissible) around that period. Elections led to businesses
preferring postponement of large-
Higher than expected drop in scale investments in an economy
GDP growth rate from 9% to 5- afflicted with corruption and
5.5%, no doubt takes some sheen nepotism. While the government,
off India’s acclaim of being a safe though in election mode, did
place to invest. A fall of nearly 4 announce stimulus packages to lift
percentage points in rate of growth market sentiment however, an
for a large and highly diverse overarching Indian Bureaucracy
market like India needs to be ensures that the same shall take a
understood in a better manner. The few years to reach the ground i.e. if
same is attributed to being a result they manage to trickle at all.
a mix of various factors such as
Monetary tightening by authorities Presently, apart from Reality,
which continued till July-August 08 Gems & Jewelry, Garments and
(leading to higher domestic interest some Auto component
for credit for Reality & Automobile manufacturers & exporters, most
segment (and resultant fall in well managed companies in other
demand); falling demand in exports sectors are expected to close the
of Garment, Gems & Jewelry with year with limited growth or very
some significant Job losses and moderate decrease in turnover
therefore loss of confidence among with modest decline is profits
consumers. This was also unless there are credit defaults
accompanied by huge shortage of pertaining to debtors or Exchange
liquidity in credit markets Fluctuation related losses (partly
(especially in foreign currency on account of carry trade & similar
credit markets led by foreign banks speculative deals). With present
& institutions which was a result of Liquidity in markets and fall in
global liquidity problem and a interest rates, consumers are
general loss of confidence in credit coming back to action albeit in a
selection or credit risk more calibrated manner and the
measurement), which affected same measured behavior is
project investments by corporates reflected in Bank’s lending which
in India. Both domestic & foreign has relatively more stringent credit
investors (in India) started scrutiny measures then in past.
reassessing demand in the However, sales of automobile &
emerging scenario, adopting a wait durables have started looking up.
and watch approach leading to a The same is the case for
slowdown in Capital Goods “affordable homes”. Corporate
segment. This was coupled with investments still await further
slowdown in other highly visible stabilization in political situation &
sectors such as IT Exports, Tourism clarity of policies. Businesses want
(both domestic and inbound) and a government that shall be able to
to some extent in Durables attract foreign investments,

By: Amit Bhushan Contact: amitbhushan@rediffmail.com


Author works with a major International Bank in India. Views expressed are personal
A Thought paper that tries to identify safer growth opportunities for global investors in
Turbulent Market. By-Amit Bhushan Date 16th Mat 2009.
manage Balance of Payments and especially after its breaking the
a clear Fiscal and monetary policy shackles of nuclear apartheid,
direction as well as one which however they need reassurance
ensures a workable security that their investments do not hit
environment. This shall ensure a roadblocks of policy hurdles &
stable outlook for banks (both corruption, an agreeable climate to
domestic & foreign) to loosen the ensure reach out to customers &
purse strings and start lending repatriation of profits. India’s
towards bankable projects (of potential as a low cost production
which quite a few with some base as an alternative to China or
groundwork done happen to be in other small Asian countries (&
India) in the prevailing therefore an opportunity to derisk
environments. The prevailing low sourcing) are other added
market capitalization might offer attractions. Though India’s higher
opportunities for Mergers & cost of infrastructure (or non-
Acquisition to corporate abroad or availability) & energy prices, tough
for PE in buyout business (for those labour laws, chaotic politico-
who can still afford to do it in the economic environment, high
present situation). With some large interest rates, and complex tax
projects like a large refinery, a environment have been
large Gas field & a mini car project impediments to its emergence as a
going live this year contributing dependable supply source of
some 2.5-3% of the GDP and choice among investors. Its low
natural growth of economy in wage English speaking educated
current environment pegged at workforce with high level of
another 3-3.5% (due to modest technical skills & innovativeness
growth in Agriculture & services has done the trick for services
with stagnation in Industrial growth exports though.
expected for the year), the
government estimates of growth While exports demand
around 6% may be realistic in the continues to remain depressed with
prevailing scenario (although a bad exports showing degrowth of up to
monsoons could be one 30% (resultant effective impact has
spoilsports). However, been a negative 2% on overall GDP
sustainability of this growth rate numbers), the domestic demand is
requires continued investments in expected to act as a driver of
new projects for which it is critical growth. The consumption led
that Financial Institutions both domestic demand is expect to
domestic & foreign continue to remain somewhat weaker due to
pour credit in the capital starved stricter credit selection policies of
economy. Therefore, stability of banks, however innovation in
macroeconomic environment, market by producers reaching out
security & clear policy directions to customers at lower price points
from the country’s government and hence expansion of markets
(and polity) are critical factors for can ensure that growth momentum
the success of the economy. While continues (just in same way as
quite a few Global corporates & Tata’s Nano is expected to expand
even SMEs are watching the Indian overall automobile market in India).
scene unfolding with lots of interest The telecom sector, healthcare

By: Amit Bhushan Contact: amitbhushan@rediffmail.com


Author works with a major International Bank in India. Views expressed are personal
A Thought paper that tries to identify safer growth opportunities for global investors in
Turbulent Market. By-Amit Bhushan Date 16th Mat 2009.
sector are already experiencing a for investors of all classes, whether
sort of boom even in the present they are large or small. Like in
situation as a result of their Crude Oil & Gas, India has opened
capability to open mass market exploration, storage as well as
among India’s poor and Reality, refining segment for foreign
Domestic travel & tourism sectors players. Its gas distribution and
can be expected to seriously storage infrastructure as well as
initiate exploring the opportunity handling capacity at ports also
soon. requires investments as a result of
Now, the investment led growing/pent up demand. In coal, it
demand which is more a function requires investments in harnessing
of opportunity, security, macro- coal bed methane, Coal gasification
economic stability, labour laws, as well coal washeries. Its own coal
taxation, government policies and mines are not producing enough
infrastructure among other things coal of good varieties due to lack of
and therefore a function of reforms investment & technology as well as
in these segments. Therefore corruption and political
quality of governance shall interference in the sector. Its
continue to be an important Electricity generation as well as
function affecting the investment distribution infrastructure is also
led demand. Investors shall throwing tremendous opportunities
continue to watch India for (though marked with high risks due
evolving opportunities be it for to political considerations and
Greenfield projects or M&A or other corruption). Now with the end of
ways of market entry. Nuclear Apartheid, opportunity for
generation of Nuclear Energy shall
Though India offers only get added to overall demand
consumer led demand & hence scenario. India also offers huge
growth opportunity in various potential for Renewable energy
sectors, there is a lot of pent up with host of opportunity in
demand in certain select sectors. Hydropower segment in large as
This offers opportunity that can be well as mini hydel plant segments.
harnessed with targeted offering of The potential for Wind Power as
suitably designed and innovatively well as solar power segment is also
packages products for achieving a huge due to India’s climatic
high growth & decent return. The conditions.
same are discussed below. However, the sector is
afflicted with a high degree of
1) Energy: India’s energy political interference, corruption,
demands have proved to be bureaucratic inertia & complex
tremendously resilient with almost socio-political-security
no signs of ebbing of growth in factors/concerns. Reforms are
demand even with high price needed at the national as well as
volatility in the energy segment. provincial government levels to
The demand is met through Coal, streamline policy while managing
Crude Oil & Gas and Electricity expectations of a diverse set of
from Renewal & Non-Renewable customers with potentially
Energy sources. In all the three conflicting expectations. Unlike a
segments huge opportunity exists telecom/communications sector

By: Amit Bhushan Contact: amitbhushan@rediffmail.com


Author works with a major International Bank in India. Views expressed are personal
A Thought paper that tries to identify safer growth opportunities for global investors in
Turbulent Market. By-Amit Bhushan Date 16th Mat 2009.
where Raw material is spectrum, temptation to ‘import’ doctors &
Bandwidth or air waves with nurses from India or even tried
negligible costs, this sector has using a cheaper option of sending
rising cost of raw materials and patients to India for cost effective
added to it a grossly inefficient treatment. Such efforts are likely to
distribution infrastructure. A well expand market manifold and allow
thought out coherent supply chain India to emerge as the new
that satisfy all concerns and is cost healthcare destination in coming 5-
effective to meet demand of a 10 years. This is so as Healthcare
large majority has eluded all industry is still needs to expand
players so far. Various plans to further and also look at avenues
open up the sectors have only that bring down cost further. While
been met with limited success. Lots technological and application
of foreign players/project innovations shall continued to
consultancy companies have deliver their stuff; the distribution
already established presence in aspect still needs to be fixed for
India with Investors seriously services to reach its poor. The
weighing upcoming opportunities. capacity to absorb foreign patients
This sector shall remain one of the along with its own poor population
most sought after segments among also needs to be developed. The
Global investors, equipment players need to understand this
suppliers as well as operating growth driver with potentially
companies, however a lot of work insatiable demand and therefore
needs to be done to unshackle the work towards developing systems
same. that help reaching poorer
populations with capacity to handle
2) Healthcare/Pharma: Finally, “volumes” in a cost effective
India’s medical professionals along manner rather than focusing of
with their technology counterparts “upper class or foreign customers”
have started to listen to its millions alone. Also, epidemics such as
of teaming poor populace. Lately, a SARS, Swine Flu, Mad Cow etc.
lot of experimentation to address have raised awareness among its
the medical needs of India’s poor populace of diseases among
population is being reported. A cattles, poultry etc. These shall
good thing is that most of these raise demand in veterinary services
experimentations are initiatives of and medicine exponentially.
its private sector corporates and Experiments like telemedicine,
individuals rather than a robotic surgery (through remote)
government driven initiative. And and other low but effective
look at the result. India has already treatment methodologies are
emerged as one of the cheapest making headlines and raising
healthcare destinations in the awareness levels and making the
world and among the cheapest services available at prices which
source of Drugs (generic). As a are affordable to customers. With
result, its English speaking West also joining in to control
professionals are among the most costs, it is expected that industry in
sought after people even in this India shall only emerge much
recession. The developed countries stronger and grow manifold.
have not been able to resist

By: Amit Bhushan Contact: amitbhushan@rediffmail.com


Author works with a major International Bank in India. Views expressed are personal
A Thought paper that tries to identify safer growth opportunities for global investors in
Turbulent Market. By-Amit Bhushan Date 16th Mat 2009.
3) Biotechnology: Biotechnology selling a costly property? So why
industry serves as a research arm waste time discussing ages old
to Agritech, and Pharma industry formula. Also, don’t know anyone
which increases potential for who runs a business to develop
strategic alliances. Tremendous homes that are unaffordable. If it
potential exists in agri-business in were to succeed as a good investor
Indian economy for transgenic value proposition somebody shall
seeds, bio-fertilizers, recombinant have already lapped it by now
vaccines and drugs etc. Global since housing is an age old
trends show that all large industry.. In spite of all these
pharmaceutical players are putting thoughts, I have still decided to
their money in healthcare for long discuss the topic as this has a
term benefits. It is expected that special case in India. First, India
nearly half the drugs in the next has requirement for almost 20 – 45
decade would be biotech products. million homes to house its poor. If
India offers excellent opportunity to the size of the opportunity has not
start business with low capital impressed you, there’s much more.
bases, highly qualified scientific & The changing Indian political
English speaking manpower, system is definitely turning to focus
excellent bio-diversity, suitable on inward with key issues being of
patent laws and strong base of making hygienic living conditions
indigenous capabilities has been available to common man at
created. India’s experience with affordable price (Electricity, Roads
genetically modified Cotton has & Water supply have emerged as
generally been good which may the mantra for political success).
allow regulators with some other The “affordable housing” segment
crops promising to improve falling has or can play a key role as it not
farm yields. India has generally only makes the hygienic living
been favourable to bio-fertilizers & standards, an “Indian Dream”,
recombinant vaccines. With its past into reality, but it also helps
seeped in Ayurveda and Unani mobilize peoples’ savings and
medicine systems, it offers a host future income potential to meet
of ideas and opportunity to their present aspirations or ‘pent
researchers for development of up demand’ in the market along
drugs and food products to solve with significant job creation in
today’s problems. India has market. There is an increasing
potential to become a cost recognition of this factor among
effective research destination with the political and ruling classes,
huge market potential for players however not much action is seen
in this sector. among businesses to work towards
unshackling this market. Fulfilling
4) “Affordable Housing”: While requirement of “affordable homes”
many shall argue that affordable shall primarily require large scale
housing is one sector that shall “Land Reforms”. Land dealing in
always have demand in all the India, like most of Asia, is amongst
countries most of the times (even the most complex and corruption
in recession). After all, ain’t this prone segment with lots of
good way to generate cash by emotions and sensibilities of people
moving in “affordable home” by attached to it (for whom it is their

By: Amit Bhushan Contact: amitbhushan@rediffmail.com


Author works with a major International Bank in India. Views expressed are personal
A Thought paper that tries to identify safer growth opportunities for global investors in
Turbulent Market. By-Amit Bhushan Date 16th Mat 2009.
only significant asset) and market where Non-residents have
therefore a playing field for all sort become much more circumspect
of political players. Complex laws with Job losses in their country of
for ownership and transfer of residence and falling values of their
assets coupled with non-availability investments in India. The MNCs are
of clearly authenticated Land busy redrawing their expansion
records and a legal system that plans and rising salaries of middle
moves at snails pace (it may take class in India isn’t likely to grow at
up to 25 years to settle legal the same pace as in past at least
disputes), are all formidable for the near future. While this has
deterrents for all but the most lead to moderation in property
diehard investors. If these were not prices, however the players are yet
enough, India’s bureaucracy in the to develop a new model for growth.
form of locality development “Affordable Housing” which looks to
authority, municipal government & optimize unit cost development
state and central government and hence price of a housing
intervention in forms of various property with innovation in design,
approval requirements make this construction techniques and
sector an absolute nightmare. How materials with developers focusing
does the Reality player then to reduce time to bring a property
survive? Isn’t that some of most to market (instead of increasing the
prosperous people in India are same and using time to inflate
Reality tycoons. The existing prices) and harnessing economies
Reality players have converted the of scale to make their profits rather
Red Tape of the governance into an than hideously inflating
opportunity. They have used the land/property prices. This also
opportunity of non-availability or raises question that would
lack of adequate supply of land for developers not trying to bring
development to inflate prices of construction cost down to enhance
Land. Their model is to essentially their own profits. The answer is a
buy and hold land (whatever little clear “no” because the focus of the
is available), inflate the prices market was on NRI and Upper
artificially through hideous Middle segment customers which
mechanism (by exacerbating this are less focused on costs but
shortage or combined actions in desires high quality finish and
groups therefore they are often hassle free transaction. Much of
dubbed as ‘land mafia’) and then the developers in urban areas have
push the property at much higher been focused on this segment
prices. The economy which grew at where demand has ebbed & thus
6-9% for past 15 years provided for prices are moderating, however the
the success of this gambit. The developers are holding out in hope
incoming flow of Foreign investors, that demand shall revive which
rising incomes of the middle seems unlikely to happen any time
classes coupled with an ever larger soon. While the NRI shall wait for a
number of Non-Residents willing to clearer picture to emerge in both
own ‘a piece of resurgent India’ the country of residence as well as
provided for chunks of ‘captive’ in India, the Middle classes shall
market. However, this model is like a revival of the High Income
being challenged in the falling growth cycle that was witnessed in

By: Amit Bhushan Contact: amitbhushan@rediffmail.com


Author works with a major International Bank in India. Views expressed are personal
A Thought paper that tries to identify safer growth opportunities for global investors in
Turbulent Market. By-Amit Bhushan Date 16th Mat 2009.
the past 10 years. Both these of the private sector, regarding
factors have a low probability as syllabi of what should be taught,
Global Financial markets with its regulates infrastructure
focus of reducing cost including requirements, has rights to inspect
pay packets of employees shall teaching, advises the kind of pay to
remain in their current state for be given to teaching staff and also
sometime. So, it may be wise for conducts examination of students
investors to focus in areas such as at certain level (X & XII). It’s a
“affordable homes” which offers classic case where one failing party
plethora of opportunities provided decides to play regulator and fail
a suitable model is worked upon. all others involved in the process.
An early entry and development of Naturally, the private sector
brand value in this segment has remains harassed with the
potential to create long term overarching government
wealth in a market with potentially intervention. The same was the
insatiable demand, however the state of higher education as well till
path is sprinkled with all sorts of a few years ago, until the need for
challenges. large number of trained people by
a single industry brought about a
5) Training & Education: This is mindset change in the segment.
a classic case of a sector which has Basically, it was India’s famed
been a mess due to over regulation Information Technology industry
& resultant undersupply. This has which needed a vast army of
also seen some innovative trained code writers as well people
corporate action with reasonable who can run and work through the
degree of success. To begin the solutions offered by the industry.
story here, I would like to point out This required a large army of
that the Indian state makes it people which India’s state run
incumbent upon its government to higher education system was in no
offer basic education to all its way equipped to provide. It didn’t
children below fourteen years of have the resources or the
age. Responsibility of education is willingness to invest in these
shared jointly between the state & resources either. It was then that
central government. Since the some of the entrepreneurs rose up
government has very limited to the challenge. This led to start of
capability and resources, there “Vocational Training” institute in
exists a robust private sector computers which facilitated people
whose presence has largely been into jobs that they otherwise would
welcome to the richer sections of not have been capable to deliver.
society. The poorer classes have The models were successful in
not been able to afford the services avoiding the ‘Red Tape’ of Indian
of these private schools and bureaucracy. The ruling classes
therefore scoff at the sector. The sensing the mood of the people
government sector suffers from the decided not to mess up with the
apathy, neglect, corruption & model. Subsequently, this model
unprofessional conduct of the large started offering more complex
government bureaucracy and is in variety of education and also
state of morass. Government has started receiving accolades from
regulations pertaining constitution the industry for their training. The

By: Amit Bhushan Contact: amitbhushan@rediffmail.com


Author works with a major International Bank in India. Views expressed are personal
A Thought paper that tries to identify safer growth opportunities for global investors in
Turbulent Market. By-Amit Bhushan Date 16th Mat 2009.
government sensing the need to freight segment to subsidize ticket
wake up started to liberalize its cost for the poor class which can
own education system via All India only pay the subsidized fare for
council of Technical Education route travel. Quite a few players smell
which started giving recognition to opportunity in the freight segment
private institutes for various however are skeptical of the
technical courses and later also continuation of this policy as well
decided on allowing private as the size of the opportunity. The
universities. While standards for governments needs to clarify about
ownership and constitution of these the opportunity and possibly make
players are still tightly regulated, reforms more transparent by
efforts are on to allow foreign privatizing the Railway warehouse,
investments in this segment. Also, loading & unloading segment fully
lower level education system still to private sector. This shall make
cries for reforms. Given the size of available vital revenues to invest in
the market and ability to become a Railroads, bridges and culverts that
low cost destination for education are needed to handle enhanced
offers significant opportunity for traffic flow. Apart from coporate
investors. wagon carriage segment, the
Railways also plan to make use of
6) Railways: The railway system its land holding to generate
in India works as an extended arm revenues. The ability of the sector
of the government barring some to deliver value to consumer
government owned undertaking. however remains unquestioned
This is so because the subsequent however need to translate it into a
governments have consistent in real investment opportunity needs
their view of railways as a government support. However
facilitator of national integration players are watching because the
rather as pure transportation revenue proposition to transport
services for people. This makes any India’s growing need of
significant effort to reform the commodities and manufactured
Indian Railways having a goods remains strong, acquiring
parliamentary sanction with all the this infrastructure gives a lot of
attached consequences. Luckily, competitive advantage for future,
there have been some significant relative less competition & hence
efforts to cut cost turn around the good margins. The railways have
carrier as a result of which it is now been a cheap & competitive source
in a position to generate a small for movement of goods for ages
cash surplus. There has also been now, so the player are evaluating
some effort to privatize load upcoming opportunity with
carrying segment and allow private interest. The risk factors are that
sector to operate on some routes. nobody is talking for
This has been done with a view to corporatization of Railways yet, so
win back freight from the costlier having to continuously deal with a
road transportation segment to government bureaucracy might
which railways have been loosing affect profits on account of
traffic on accounts of its own corruption, lethargy etc.
inefficiency. This is important to
Railways as it uses revenue from

By: Amit Bhushan Contact: amitbhushan@rediffmail.com


Author works with a major International Bank in India. Views expressed are personal
A Thought paper that tries to identify safer growth opportunities for global investors in
Turbulent Market. By-Amit Bhushan Date 16th Mat 2009.
7) Communications: The Mobile also has the largest livestock
Telephony, Internet & Maas population in the world and is
communications media through among the largest producers of
Television & Radio is booming as a honey, milk, poultry and meat &
result of reforms in the segment. fisheries products. Presently, a
The low price penetration to reach small percentage of farm produces
all classes strategy adopted as a processed into value added
result of policy measures of the products. The efficiency of supply
government has brought about a chain & distribution with multiple
tremendous change and created layers of traders, poor storage &
huge demand in the segment. The packaging facilities are also a drain
companies is this sector have been on the economy & consumers.
able to service customers as some India also has locational advantage
of the lowest price point in the to export to Middle East & Central
world thus transforming India’s Asia. Rapid urbanization, increased
huge population of poor people into literacy, changing life-style, more
prospective customers and are women in work force and rising per
reaping the benefit of the same in capita income have all caused
form of a boom even when the rapid growth and changes in the
global markets are not in the best demand pattern, leading to several
of shape. Government’s new opportunities in food and
encouragement to E-Governance beverages sector. Already, Food
and making information disclosure Processing Industry is expected to
of net by governments is getting grow at the rate of 10-15%. An
encouraging public response and average Indian spends about 50%
as a result an ever increasing of household expenditure on food
demand. The sectors are creating items. However this sector again is
tremendous opportunity for politically sensitive with
associated equipment suppliers government time and again
and service providers as well. intervening in with policies like
Altogether, communications Minimum support price for cereals
is one showcase sector where & sugar, minimum export price,
successful reforms have quantitative restrictions of exports
transformed a moribund sector into & imports, tinkering with input
a flourishing business opportunity prices of goods such as fertilizers &
savored by both domestic as well distribution with laws and
as foreign investors. restrictions on movement of
cereals etc. Though quite a few
8) Food Processing: India has players are already operating in the
diverse agro-climatic conditions processed food space, there is
with the largest arable land area in scope for many more. However, the
the world to produce a wide rage of players shall have to take into
food stuff. It is among the top three account the Indian taste buds,
produces of wheat, rice, maize, price points at which a large
lentils, barley, jute, coconut, market of economic order becomes
cotton, tea, coffee, sugarcane, available and distribution efficiency
tobacco, spices, cashew nuts, to reach the market. Opportunity
edible oils seeds, fruits & can also be explored in supplying
vegetables among other things. It technology, equipment etc. to

By: Amit Bhushan Contact: amitbhushan@rediffmail.com


Author works with a major International Bank in India. Views expressed are personal
A Thought paper that tries to identify safer growth opportunities for global investors in
Turbulent Market. By-Amit Bhushan Date 16th Mat 2009.
existing domestic players
successfully operating in the
market to enhance their efficiency
in production & distribution and
hence optimize their costs further.
While the sector has been
open for investment, global players
have shown only limited interest in
the highly price sensitive market.
The investors need to be cautiously
assessing weakness in the existing
supply chain that can profitably
address or saliency of the new
products in the Indian market.
Alternatively, they can also
evaluate India as a cost effective
sourcing destination for their global
customers. The dining out and
ready –to –eat segments has been
growing at double digit rates along
with health foods like Packaged
Juices and fun foods albeit over
small bases. While the same may
be good news for investors,
however risks posed by high
degree of price sensitivity of the
market offers little scope for
experimentation. Therefore
investors have to cautiously assess
their competitive strength in
producing value add to the food
processing supply chain in a
profitable manner.

By: Amit Bhushan Contact: amitbhushan@rediffmail.com


Author works with a major International Bank in India. Views expressed are personal

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