THE FIELD POLL

Release #2446 By Mark DiCamillo and Mervin Field

THE INDEPENDENT AND NON-PARTISAN SURVEY OF PUBLIC OPINION ESTABLISHED IN 1947 AS THE CALIFORNIA POLL BY MERVIN FIELD

Field Research Corporation

601 California Street, Suite 900 San Francisco, CA 94108-2814 (415) 392-5763 FAX: (415) 434-2541 EMAIL: fieldpoll@field.com www.field.com/fieldpollonline

Release Date: Wednesday, July 24, 2013 IMPORTANT: Contract for this service is subject to revocation if publication or broadcast takes place before release date or if contents are divulged to persons outside of subscriber staff prior to release time. (ISSN 0195-4520)

JERRY BROWN CONTINUES TO RECEIVE HIGH JOB PERFORMANCE MARKS. MORE FAVOR THAN OPPOSE HIS RE-ELECTION SHOULD HE RUN AGAIN NEXT YEAR.

A 51% to 33% majority of California voters approves of the job Jerry Brown is doing as governor. While this assessment is down slightly from a 57% approval mark last February, it remains higher than each of nine earlier Field Poll measures taken since his 2010 election as governor. With the next gubernatorial primary less than a year away, the survey also finds that a 43% to 38% plurality of the overall electorate, and a 57% to 22% majority of Democrats, are inclined to support Brown in a re-election bid should he run for another term. Trend of Browns job ratings Between early 2011, when Brown began his current term, and late last year, pluralities of Californians have consistently approved of Browns job performance. Their assessments reached a high point early this year when a 57% majority gave him positive marks. While voters current appraisal is slightly less positive, 51% continue to approve of the job Brown is doing. Rank-and-file Democrats approve of Browns performance four to one (68% to 17%). Voters with no major party preference, who now represent over one-quarter of the electorate, also approve of the job Brown is doing 54% to 29%. By contrast, Republican voters hold a contrary view, with nearly three times as many disapproving (61%) as approving (23%).

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Table 1 Trend of job performance ratings of Jerry Brown during his current term as Governor (among registered voters) Approve Disapprove July 2013 51% 33 February 2013 57% 31 October 2012 46% 37 September 2012 46% 37 July 2012 44% 42 Late May 2012 43% 40 February 2012 45% 38 November 2011 47% 36 September 2011 49% 32 June 2011 46% 31 March 2011 48% 21 Party registration (July 2013) Democrats 68% 17 Republicans 23% 61 No party preference/others 54% 29
Note: October 2012 survey conducted among likely voters in the November 2012 general election.

No opinion 16 12 17 17 14 17 17 17 19 23 31 15 16 17

Plurality of voters are inclined to re-elect Brown should he run for re-election Most political observers expect Brown to run for re-election next year. In the current survey voters were asked whether or not they would be inclined to support Brown in a re-election bid. The results show that a 43% plurality of voters overall supports his re-election, 38% are opposed, and another 19% say it depends or are undecided. Among Democrats the margin supporting another Brown term is two and one-half to one (57% to 22%). In addition to Democrats, the voter segments most supportive of re-electing Brown are liberals, voters living in the nine-county the San Francisco Bay Area, and those who have completed postgraduate work in college. Men are currently inclined to vote for Browns re-election 47% to 38%, while women are more evenly divided 40% inclined vs. 39% not inclined. Pluralities of voters age 18-39, seniors age 65 or older, college graduates, middle-of-the-road voters and Los Angeles County residents also favor another term for Brown. The voter segments who oppose Brown's re-election are Republicans and conservatives, voters in eight-county Southern California region outside of Los Angles County and voters living in the Central Valley.

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Table 2 Voter inclination to re-elect Jerry Brown as Governor should he run in 2014 overall and among subgroups of the voting population Support re-election 43% 57% 21% 44% 16% 32% 43% 58% 76% 47% 40% 45% 33% 37% 61% 32% 43% 40% 49% 43% 41% 42% 37% 37% 45% 57% Oppose re-election 38 22 66 35 77 55 33 25 8 38 39 31 51 46 21 49 35 41 39 40 38 34 40 47 37 24 Depends/ Undecided 19 21 13 21 7 13 24 17 16 15 21 24 16 17 18 19 22 19 12 17 21 24 23 16 18 19

Total registered voters Party registration Democrats Republicans No party preference/other Political ideology Strongly conservative Moderately conservative Middle-of-the-road Moderately liberal Strongly liberal Gender Male Female Region Los Angeles County Other Southern California Central Valley San Francisco Bay Area Other Northern California* Age 18-39 40-64 65 or older Race/ethnicity White non-Hispanic Latino African-American/Asian/other Education High school graduate or less Some college/trade school College graduate Post-graduate work
* Small sample base.

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Information About The Survey

Methodological Details

The findings in this report are based on a Field Poll survey completed June 26 July 21, 2013 among random samples of either 841 or 846 registered voters in California. Interviewing was conducted by telephone using live interviewers working from Field Research Corporations central location telephone interviewing facilities in San Diego. Up to six attempts were made to reach, screen and interview each randomly selected voter on different days and times of day during the interviewing period. Interviewing was completed on either a voters landline phone or a cell phone depending on the source of the telephone listing from the voter file. After the completion of interviewing, the overall registered voter sample was weighted to Field Poll estimates of the characteristics of the overall registered voter population in California. Sampling error estimates applicable to the results of any probability-based survey depend on sample size as well as the percentage distribution being examined. The maximum sampling error for results based on each statewide sample is +/- 3.5 percentage points at the 95% confidence level. The maximum sampling error is based on results in the middle of the sampling distribution (i.e., percentages at or near 50%). Percentages at either end of the distribution (those closer to 10% or 90%) have a smaller margin of error. There are other potential sources of error in surveys besides sampling error. However, the overall design and execution of the survey sought to minimize these other possible sources of error. The Field Poll was established in 1947 as The California Poll by Mervin Field, who is still an active advisor. The Poll has operated continuously since then as an independent, non-partisan survey of California public opinion. The Poll receives annual funding from media subscribers of The Field Poll, from several California foundations, and the University of California and California State University systems, who receive the data files from each Field Poll survey shortly after its completion for teaching and secondary research purposes. Questions Asked Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jerry Brown is handling his job as Governor of California? Jerry Brown's term as Governor ends in 2014. If Jerry Brown runs for re-election, would you be inclined or not inclined to vote to re-elect Brown as Governor?