COVER STORY

GAS TURBINES: MOVING TO PRIME TIME

A PROFITABLE GAS TURBINE BUSINESS WILL INCLUDE SALES OF NEW MACHINES AS WELL AS SERVICE
BILL SCHMALZER FORECAST INTERNATIONAL

or the coming decade, not only will gas turbine production for electrical power generation be one of the more profitable sectors for manufacturers such as GE, Siemens, and Solar, there will also be an increased emphasis on the repair-overhaul and the operation-maintenance sectors.

Edging out alternatives

In spite of lingering fears of a stalled economic recovery, there are numerous factors worldwide and in the U.S. that point to a steady growth of the gas turbine sector. In the next two decades, most agencies are predicting a doubling of consumption of natural gas, as transportation and heating applications that traditionally depend on fuel oil migrate toward electrical energy supplies. A hydrogen economy is forecast for the long term but that is more likely a goal for 2050 than 2030. Agencies surveyed include the U.S Department of Energys Energy Information Agency and the International Energy Agency. The concept of renewable energy has logically taken center stage. Many factors play a part in this, not the least of which are environmental responsibility, proper stewardship of natural resources, economics and energy security interests. Gas turbines lend themselves to this effort directly and indirectly. Renewable energy is not limited to wind, wave, hydro and solar sources, but also includes many prime applications for gas turbines. Production of cellulosic ethanol fuels, synthetic gases and oils from pyrolysis, and digester gases from agricultural waste are salient examples. Synfuels and biofuels may be the renewable energy source powering the gas turbines. In parallel, the most efficient use of either fuel oil or natural gas is through a gas turbine combined cycle plant. This also adds a security factor in conjunction with less reliable and dispatchable sources such as wind, hydroelectric and solar sources. In North America, three factors lead to the conclusion that as far as gas turbines are concerned, natural gas will be the leading choice for the near future.
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Figure 1: Some 11,480 gas turbines will be built in the 2010-2019 period

Figure 2: The total value of production of gas turbines will be nearly $138 billion in the 2010-2019 period

The combination of a well established fuel gas infrastructure, advancements in drilling and recovery methods for tight sand gas, and desirable air emission profiles all help tilt the scales toward this fuel. In a report by the Congressional Research Service, it is stated that in the twenty years from 1989 to 2008, gas turbines have overtaken other thermal combustion sources, primarily coal, from 19% of energy production in 1989 to 39% in 2008. It is likely that trend will continue for another two decades.

An emphasis on service
One outcome of the current economic situation is an increased focus on the operation-maintenance and repair-overhaul sectors. Operation & Maintenance focuses on increasing reliability, extending life and increasing efficiency. Repair & Overhaul concentrates on restoring aging plants to near-new status, or even extending service life beyond original design. Repair & Overhaul routinely requires a planned outage, where the plant is out of service, preferably in the lower electricity demand periods in the spring or fall, when
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ing system, fuel and oil filters may be small details but add up to differentiate a poorly operating and inefficient plant from an outstanding and profitable one.

A positive outlook
Gas turbines will be used increasingly in combined cycle applications with HRSGs converting waste heat into steam. Steam Turbine Generators using that steam for increased generation efficiency will continue to be the preferred tool in the power generation industry. In 1998, 15% of U.S. power generation came from gas turbines. By 2020, this figure is expected to reach 40%. Many factors combine to lead to the conviction that gas turbine sales will grow at an annual compounded growth rate of 2.5% - 3.0% worldwide in order to keep up with demand. A current forecast from the World Energy Technology Office of the European Union predicts that within twelve months the Developing South (traditionally referred to as the Third World or the Developing World) will overtake the northern hemisphere in energy consumption, and by 2050 these countries will account for two thirds of global energy usage. Some of the factors driving gas turbine demand are: Fuel flexibility, including renewable and synthesis fuels, short construction lead time and modular construction, lower power generation operational cost, lower installed cost, lower emissions and high efficiency. Informed study of the real implications of energy policy and the situation created by various special interests leads to the determination that there are no simple answers. There is no doubt we need to move toward efficient, sustainable, and renewable energy resources. Gas turbines are well situated to be part of a sound energy policy all over the spectrum. The gas turbine-powered electrical generation market analysis is based on a review of machines either currently in production or projected to be in production by the end of the coming decade. The programs were reviewed with consideration to such factors as order patterns, population growth projections, financing, environmental concerns, fuel concerns, and geopolitics. In the 2010-2019 period, Forecast International projects that 11,480 gas turbine machines will be built for electrical power generation, having a value of production in excess of $138.7 billion (in current U.S. calendar-year dollars). GE is projected to again be the leading market player in terms of value of production, with a 43% share. In terms of machines to be produced, we project that Solar Turbines in San Diego, California, will be the leading player, producing over 30% of the
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Figure 3: Solar Turbines will produce nearly 3,540 gas turbine units in the next ten years

Figure 4: With gas turbine sales of nearly $60 billion, GE will be the market leader in dollar terms

inspections and repairs may be implemented. Proper planning and staging of materials are vital for an effective maintenance outage. Membership in a user group is invaluable, especially when one finds unexpected erosion, corrosion or cracking on parts such as turbine blades that is when having a parts pool to draw from may well prevent extended or unplanned outage. This also helps individual utilities or operating companies reduce their individual investment in bulkhead spares. When contracts for hundreds of MWs of power may have severe penalties for loss of availability, it is plain to see that investment in skilled Operation & Maintenance personnel is well worth the cost. It is also invaluable in this day and age of increasingly complex air and water permitting processes to have experienced personnel on hand who have developed good relationships with the regulatory authorities. When those inevitable anomalies occur, the state air or water board knows
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that the operator will do the right thing. Probably the best Return On Investment can be found in the training of operators and the recruitment and retention of skilled personnel. There are literally countless illustrations of the ways experienced personnel recoup many times their salaries in the average gas turbine power plant. Operating issues include such things as observing established startup and shutdown ramps so as to reduce thermal stresses, while proceeding to the most efficient operating band of the plant as quickly as possible. Another important factor is maintaining other operating parameters, such as maintaining optimum cooling on the condenser and other heat exchangers so as to give efficient boiler and turbine operation without wasting energy. Boiler water chemistry is another vital area where the attention of operators will prevent premature failures of boiler tubes, and extend the life of Heat Recovery Steam Generators (HRSG). Proper maintenance of air inlet plenum filters, evaporative cool-

machines (Figures 1 - 8). As the growing demand translates into orders, we foresee annual gas turbine production rising to a plateau in the range of 1,200 units per annum in the period 20122014. After that, production should gradually taper off in a normal sinusoidal trend. Gas turbine machines with a power output of 125 MW and larger are projected to account for over 20% of total production in the decade to come. In that group are the GE Energy Frame 7 and Frame 9, Siemens SGT5-2000E/3000E/4000F, and the newly announced Siemens SGT5-8000H, Alstom GT24/26 and Type 13E, Siemens Westinghouse SGT6 3000F/5000F/ 6000G, and Mitsubishi Model 501 and 701 series. Looking at the effectiveness of gas turbines

as industrial workhorses will help explain why they remain the logical choice for a majority of new power plant projects, and will continue to do so for the near future.

Multiple applications
One of the beauties of gas turbine machines is their modularity and extreme flexibility. Schools, civic centers and shopping malls are good applications for 200 kW units; entire cities can be powered by 200 MW units. Heat recovery units add the ability to cooperate with industry and provide steam for power or processes, or even supply a municipality with district heating or cooling. This also highlights the fact that in combined cycle and cogeneration applications, efficiencies up to near 60% are realized. Simple cycle

Figure 5: Gas turbine electrical power generation: Power class unit comparison, 2010-2019

machines with Intercooled Recuperated systems can see up to 35% efficiency. No solitary source will meet all of the worlds power requirements, but gas turbines are increasingly being adapted to many schemes to improve the efficiency and reliability of power projects. Renewable fuels show promise, as well as synthetic fuels from coal and biomass; careful consideration of energy demand vs. investment is required. It makes no sense to adopt a multi-step process to produce the fuels. The product would be more expensive than the value that can be obtained from them. With the energy demand projected in the next decade, there will be room for unprecedented development in all sectors and regions. When the need becomes sufficient, new electrical power generation capacity can come from several sources: Fossil-fuel-burning machines such as gas turbines (including microturbine machines of under 250 kW) and the new wave of gas engines and diesels; hydroelectric, nuclear, solar, and wind power; waste-to-energy plants (which burn paper or wood, scrap, food waste, and bagasse); and exotic means such as geothermal energy, ocean currents, and fuel cells. Fuel cells are still considered to be in the demonstration stage despite their immense appeal stemming from their relocation of harmful emissions, but we believe they will be abundant from about 2014. Wind power, while commercially available, is not avail-

Figure 6: Nearly 1,320 turbines with a power output of over 180 MW each will be produced in the period 2010-2019
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Figure 7: Gas turbine electrical power generation: Power class value comparison 2010-2019. The annual sales of gas turbines of over 180 MW will increase by over 35% in 2016 compared to 2010

Not yet, nuclear

In the North American Market, a reluctance to embrace nuclear energy has created a situation where, short of unprecedented changes, there will be a ten- to fifteen-year lag period just for the initial front end design, permitting and construction before nuclear energy could be a significant force in energy production. For a well-balanced energy portfolio, nuclear power, renewable energy and clean coal will be required, but in the interim, the pendulum most likely will swing toward less coal and more liquid and gas fuels, and even biofuels burned in increasingly more efficient gas turbines, such as the latest H class machines from GE or Siemens. TI Author
Bill Schmalzer is an analyst for Forecast Internationals Industrial & Marine Turbine Forecast. His focus is on gas turbine engines used for electrical generation, mechanical load drive duty, and surface transportation and on large steam turbine machines used in combined-cycle installations. His previous experience includes service as an operating engineer for Bechtel Power Corporation at the 660 MW Doswell Combined Cycle Facility in Ashland, VA, and operations manager for a 540 MW combined cycle power plant in Bridgeport, CT, from 1997-2000.
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Figure 8: In dollar terms, the class of >180 MW will account for nearly 42% of gas turbine sales in the period 2010-2019

able everywhere; its overall efficiency is about 50%, and it is expensive in the near term on a dollar-per-kilowatt-hour basis. Nuclear power and hydroelectric plants are expensive and require a long period of environmental hearings, followed by attempts to obtain financing and approvals, and finally, construction. Solar power is appealing, but shares the drawbacks of wind power it is not available everywhere, electrical power storage technology is immature and cannot handle high capacities. Further, solar, too, is expensive on a
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dollar per-kilowatt-hour basis. The viable alternatives are limited. Above the level of microturbines, whose efficiencies range from 20% - 28% are what we consider to be true gas turbine machines that range in power output from 200 kW to 250 kW at the low end to the super-high power machines of 350+ MW. Today, gas turbine machines have simple cycle efficiencies of at least 35%, with some approaching 45%, while some are advertised as already having a 60% efficiency in combined cycle mode.