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THE MOON, THE SUN & THE 9/56 YEAR PANIC CYCLE

THE MOON, THE SUN & THE 9/56 YEAR PANIC CYCLE
David McMinn Moon Sun Finance Introduction A 9/56 year cycle has been established in trends of US and Western European financial crises since 1760 (Funk, 1932; McMinn, 1997). Clearly many major financial crises are precipitated by some mechanism, as they tend to occur preferentially in patterns of the 9/56 year cycle and not as random events. Numerous cosmic factors were examined for some link with the timing of financial crises. Sunspots and traditional astrology were the initial areas favoured for assessment but no significance could be realised. However, the 9/56 year cycle was found to correlate very closely with cycles of the Sun and Moon. The paper Financial Crises & The Number 56 is essential reading for a coverage of the 9/56 year panic cycle. Changing mob psychology is hypothesised to form the basis of cycles of financial crises. Such an opinion is not new. Mill (1867) believed that the "mental mood of businessmen tends to run in cycles''. The obvious question arises as to the causal principle precipitating this repetitive cycle of mob psychology - speculative frenzy, crisis, pessimism. It has persisted throughout modern economic history, with people learning very little from the greed and foolishness of the preceding generation. The Earths orbital plane around the Sun is represented by the 360o ecliptical circle, as viewed from Earth. 0 Eo is sited at the spring equinox point, with the abbreviation Eo being used to denote ecliptic longitudinal degrees. This is to differentiate it from angular degrees (angle separating two heavenly factors), which is given as Ao. The use of ecliptic degrees was deemed necessary for simplicity. Everybody is familiar with the 360o of a circle, where as few people know the zodiacal signs and their succession through the zodiac. Additionally, there is no scientific evidence to support the concept of 12 zodiacal signs and their associated symbolism, even though it is one of the most fundamental paradigms in astrology. A glossary has been presented for those unfamiliar with the terms used in this paper. Most importantly, the term node is used in astronomy to describe any two points where: * the orbit of a heavenly body cuts an astronomical plane. * two astronomical planes intersect. Another key term is the celestial equator, which is the plane of the Earths equator extended out into space onto the sky. LUNISOLAR CYCLES The Nutation Cycle is caused by a very slight elliptical nodding of the Earth's axis, which is superimposed on the precessional motion due to the pull of the Moon on the Earth (see Wikipedia). This shows up as the north nodes retrograde (clockwise) movement around the

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THE MOON, THE SUN & THE 9/56 YEAR PANIC CYCLE

Wikipedia). This shows up as the north nodes retrograde (clockwise) movement around the ecliptic circle, taking 18.6133 tropical years to complete one cycle of the ecliptic circle from spring equinox to spring equinox. A number of other Sun - Moon cycles are crucial in financial trends and arise in the ecliptical and angular circles. Ecliptical Circle is the basis of three key lunisolar cycles. Positions of the Sun, Moon and lunar nodes are given as ecliptical longitudinal degrees, which are equivalent to angles to the spring equinox point (0 Eo). Tropical Year (or Solar Year ) equals 365.2422 days and is the time taken for the Sun to complete one cycle of the ecliptic circle from spring equinox to spring equinox. Tropical Month is the time taken for the Moon to complete one 360o cycle of the ecliptic circle from spring equinox to spring equinox and is equal to 27.3216 days. Nutation Cycle shows up as the Moons north node retrograde (clockwise) movement around the ecliptic circle, taking 18.6133 tropical years to complete one cycle. Angular Circle. This gives the respective angles between the Sun, Moon and Moons north node - denoted by Ao: Nodical Year (or Eclipse Year ) equals 346.6200 days and is the time taken for the Sun to complete one cycle lunar north node to lunar north node. Eclipse year is the astronomically correct term for this cycle, but nodical year has been used in the text because it is more descriptive. Nodical Month (or Draconic Month) is the time taken for the Moon to complete one cycle lunar north node to north node and is equal to 27.2122 days. Synodic Month (or Lunar Month) is the time taken for the Moon to complete one cycle new Moon to new Moon and equals 29.5306 days. It is based on the angle between the Sun and Moon as viewed from Earth. Saros Cycle. Every 223 synodic months (one Saros cycle), the Sun, Moon and the Moon's nodes align in the same relative angles to each other to within a fraction of a degree. The Saros (18.0 tropical years) divided by two gives the Half Saros Cycle. Every 9.0 tropical years, the Moon's mean relative position is the same angle to the lunar north node, with the Sun 180o on the opposite side of the ecliptic circle (see Appendix 1). 56 Year Cycle. On the same date every 56 tropical years, the ecliptical position of the lunar north node moves only 3 Eo clockwise (eg as on July 1: 1761 - NN at 48 Eo; 1817 - 45 Eo; 1873 - 42 Eo; 1929 - 39 Eo; 1985 - 36 Eo). Furthermore, every 56.0 tropical years, the Sun's relative position forms the same angle to the north lunar with the Moon 180o on the opposite side of the ecliptic circle. The two cycles of 9.0 (half Saros) and 56.0 tropical years result in alternating full/new moons every 111.5 and 692.5 synodic months respectively (see Appendix 1).

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THE MOON, THE SUN & THE 9/56 YEAR PANIC CYCLE

The 9 and 56 year cycles are based on the angles 0o and 180o between the Sun, Moon and lunar nodes and repeat to within one degree. Additionally, other lunisolar cycles in Appendix 1 are in integral and half integral numbers. The reasons for the importance of 0o/180o angles in the Saros and 56 year cycle remain unresolved, although it would indicate that the 1st and 2nd harmonics are crucial in understanding how the cycle actually functions. Interestingly, these harmonics play a key role in the Earth's oceanic tides. THE LUNAR NODES Nutation Cycle. The ecliptical position of the north node on a particular date correlated perfectly with the 9/36 year sub-cycles. On July 1 for ALL years in the 36 year sub-cycles Series 1, the north node was always sited between 328 and 58 Eo, while for ALL years in Series 2, the north node appeared between 142 and 231 Eo (see Diagram 1). For such patterns to occur by chance would be infinitely small. One would expect an even ecliptical distribution of the north node, if there was no relationship with sub-cycles based on multiples of 9 years.

DIAGRAM 1

NORTH NODE ECLIPTICAL POSITION & THE 36 YEAR SUBCYCLES

As on July 1 - All 44 years in the 36 ysc (Series 1 & 2) - 1760-2000 For the 1755-1940 period, the placement of the north node can be strongly correlated with the timing of Kindleberger's 30 major crises (see Diagram 2). * 24 crises had the north node in the two quarter segments diagonally opposite in the ecliptic circle - 0 - 90 Eo and 180 - 270 Eo (Significant p < .001).

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THE MOON, THE SUN & THE 9/56 YEAR PANIC CYCLE

* 17 crises were located with the north node in two diagonally opposite 45o segments - 0 45 Eo and 180 - 225 Eo. (Significant p < .001). * No crises were evident when the north node was sited between 255 and 335 Eo; a segment of 80o (Significant p < .01). For Kindleberger's 42 major crisis years (1760-1987), significance could still be repeated for the north node in these ecliptical segments discussed previously, but at a lower level (down to p < .05). In this analysis, one would expect an even distribution of the north node on the ecliptic if only chance factors were operating.

DIAGRAM 2

MAJOR FINANCIAL CRISES & THE LUNAR NORTH NODE ECLIPTICAL POSITION

Ecliptical position of north node at the time of all major crises listed by Kindleberger (Appendix B, 1996) for the period 1755-1940. For crisis years with no given month, the north node is taken as occurring on July 1. For crises given as multiple months, the north node is timed mid way between the first and last crisis month.

The concentration of the north node in the segments 0 - 45 Eo & 180 - 225 Eo for the timing of major financial crisis is probably linked with the equinox points 0 Eo/180 Eo, where the celestial equator intersects the ecliptic. As the Moons nodes move retrograde (clockwise) around the ecliptic, major financial crises are most likely to happen in the few years prior to the lunar nodes reaching the equinoxes. The Sun
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THE MOON, THE SUN & THE 9/56 YEAR PANIC CYCLE

The Sun's Ecliptical Position is hypothesised to have an impact upon financial activity. There is evidence to support this proposal. The greatest one day falls in the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and Financial Times 30 (FT-30) were usually recorded when the Sun was in the 180 - 240 Eo segment (ie: after the Sun has passed the 180 Eo equinox). DJIA 50 falls 1915-70 20 in 180 - 240 Eo (p < 10-4). DJIA 50 falls 1943-98 21 in 180 - 240 Eo (p < 10-5). For the DJIA, the biggest one day rises were also most likely to happen when the Sun was in the crucial 180 - 240 Eo segment. DJIA 50 rises 1915-70 20 in 180 - 240 Eo (p < 10-4). DJIA 50 rises 1943-98 18 in 180 - 240 Eo (p < .001). October/November are the featured months when both the biggest one day rises and falls are most likely to be experienced. No seasonal factors are known which could account for this very persistent correlation. LUNISOLAR CYCLES: A KEY Given the alignment (based on 0o and 180o angles) of several lunisolar cycles at 9 and 56 tropical years, the Moon was expected to play a key role in the 9/56 year cycle. In Series 1 & 2 of the 36 year sub-cycles (McMinn 1997), S/NN conjunctions (0 Ao) formed angles to the Moon ranging from 0 to 50 Ao and 170 to 240 Ao (see Diagram 3). This applied in all years between 1760 and 1940.

DIAGRAM 3

MOON ANGLES TO S/NN CONJUNCTIONS & THE 36 YSC

1760 to 2000. All Years in 36 Year Sub-Cycles Series 1 & 2. Angular degrees

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THE MOON, THE SUN & THE 9/56 YEAR PANIC CYCLE

LUNAR PHASE & THE DJIA The most amazing correlate in Moon Sun finance arises between lunar phase and the timing of major US financial panics. Table 4 shows the relationship between lunar phase and the all DJIA annual one day (AOD) falls over 4.50% in the 1915 - 1999 era. Clearly, lunar phase nearly always showed up between first quarter and full Moon and third quarter and new Moon with only one exception in 1930 (McMinn, 2006). (NB: The annual one day fall is the biggest one day % decline in the DJIA in the year commencing March 1.)

DIAGRAM 4

LUNAR PHASE & DJIA AOD FALLS OVER -4.50% 1915 - 1999 Source: McMinn, David. Lunar Phase & US Crashes. Australian Technical Analysts Assoc Journal. p 20. Jan/Feb 2000.

If the time frame was extended from 1910 to 2008, the following events may also be included: Date Jan 20, 1913 Jul 30, 1914 Apr 14, 2000 Sep 11, 2001 Jul 23, 2002 Jan 21, 2008 Oct 15, 2008 Event AOD fall -4.90% AOD fall -6.63% Tech Wreck WTC attack AOD fall -4.64% Worldwide stock market panics (a) AOD fall -7.75% Sun E 300 127 025 169 117 301 Moon E 093 226 155 090 239 110 Phase A 153 099 130 281 122 169
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THE MOON, THE SUN & THE 9/56 YEAR PANIC CYCLE

2007.

Of the total 29 major AOD falls since 1910 (the double AOD falls in 1919 and 1940 were each treated as one event), only lunar phase in 1930 did not show up within the two quarter segments in Diagram 4. This was extremely unlikely to happen by chance (significant p < 10-6). Interestingly, this lunar phase effect did not show up in pre 1910 US stock market activity or for DJIA AOD falls less than 4.50%. The 54/56 Year Grid Table 1 presents the 54/56 year grid by McMinn (1986, 1995), which contained numerous major financial crises and panics. Years in BOLD experienced major US and Western European crises as listed by Kindleberger (Appendix B, 1996), while additional crises and DJIA AOD falls were presented in Appendix 1. Remarkably, lunar phase for these 23 crises/ panics occurred with lunar phase between 090 & 190 Ao, as well as between 290 and 350 Ao, with one exception for the October 1839 panic (023 Ao). This gave a similar lunar phase distribution to that established for DA AOD falls in Diagram 1. Table 1 54/56 YEAR PANIC CYCLE Sq 01 Sq 03 Sq 05 1761 1763 + 54 1817 1765 + 54 1819 + 54 1873 + 54 1821 + 54 1875 + 54 1929 + 54 1877 + 54 1931 + 54 1985 + 54 1933 + 54 1987 + 54 1989

1769 + 54 1825 + 54 1881 + 54 1937 + 54 1993 Source: McMinn, 1986, 1995.

1767 1823 1879 1935 1991

+ 54 + 54 + 54 + 54

1815 1871 1927 1983

Curiously, all 9 DJIA AOD falls (=> -3.60%) within this 54/56 year gird occurred in the four months to November 15, with 6 in the three weeks ended October 28. The 8 AOD falls in the two months commencing in September 20 all appeared in a grid based on intervals of 60 years (see Table 2). Table 2 THE 60 YEAR INTERVALS DJIA AUTUMN AOD Falls in Table 1 1869 (a) 1871 (b) +2 +2 +6 Sep 24 Oct 09 + 60 + 60 1929 (c) 1931 +2 Oct 29 +2 Sep 24 +6 -11.73% -7.07% + 60 + 60 1989 1991 +2 Oct 13 +2 Nov 15 +6 -6.91% -3.91%

na + 60 1927 Oct 08 -3.65% + 60 1987 Oct 19 -22.61%

na + 60 1937 Oct 18 -7.63% + 60 1997 (b) Oct 27 -7.67%

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THE MOON, THE SUN & THE 9/56 YEAR PANIC CYCLE

(c) The 1929 AOD fall happened on Monday Oct 28, although the following day, Black Tuesday, has been used in the table. NB: The autumn panics of 1869 and the 1997 did not occur in the 54/56 grid as presented in Table 1. na. Daily New York stock market data unavailable. Apogee Point Apogee is the point in the lunar orbit, where the Moon is the greatest distance from Earth, while perigee is the least distance. In the lunar apse cycle, the apogee perigee axis (apsides) rotates counter clockwise around the ecliptical circle, with apogee passing from spring equinox to spring equinox every 8.8474 tropical years. 9.0 years divided by the 8.8474 year apse cycle yielded 1.02, while 56.0 divided by the apse cycle gave 6.33 (6 plus one third). On the same date in the 9/56 year grid, apogee is always located in three segments approximately 120o apart on the ecliptical circle with no exceptions. This is illustrated in the 9/56 year grid shown in Table 2, where apogee is always located in three segments 335 013 Eo; 095 135 Eo and 215 250 Eo.

Table 2 Sq 32

9/56 YEAR SUB-CYCLE & THE POSITION OF APOGEE Ecliptical Degrees of Apogee as on July 1 Sq 41 Sq 50 Sq 21 1781 013 1837 131 1893 250 1949 008 2005 127 2061 246

Sq 03 Sq 12 1763 1772 000 007 1792 1801 1810 1819 1828 100 106 113 119 126 1848 1857 1866 1875 1884 219 225 231 237 244 1904 1913 1922 1931 1940 337 344 350 356 002 1960 1969 1978 1987 1996 096 102 108 115 121 2016 2025 2034 2043 2052 215 221 227 233 239 The 56 year sequences are separated by an interval of 9 years. TRADITIONAL ASTROLOGY

Planetary cycles are exceedingly important in traditional astrological theory. Williams (1982) believed Jupiter - Saturn - Uranus cycles 'offered a clue' in explaining the crises in Sequences 01, 21 and 41 proposed by Funk (1932). A planetary influence upon the 9/56 year cycle could not be established despite numerous hypotheses being tested for significance - planets by ecliptical segment, angles between the planets, planets sited at certain precise ecliptical degrees and so forth. The planets do have an impact upon the 9/56 year cycle via the process of planetary precession (see Wikepedia). However, this is much, much weaker than Moon Sun precession (see Wikepedia) and therefore it is a question whether such weak planetary forces can be detected in financial cycles. To date, the answer has been a firm no. Only
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THE MOON, THE SUN & THE 9/56 YEAR PANIC CYCLE

Moon Sun cycles can be advocated as the prime influence on market timing and the 9/56 year panic cycle. IN CONCLUSION From the findings, the 9/56 year panic cycle is most likely based on angular - ecliptical diurnal relationships between the Sun and Moon. Given the key role played by the lunar nodes and the tropical year, diurnal cycles are likely to be very relevant, but could never be assessed from the financial data directly. Trading is limited to week days and daylight hours, which prevents a full analysis of diurnal cycles in financial patterns. Three astronomical planes appear to be highly significant in the timing of financial crises: * The Ecliptic is the plane the Sun gravitationally pulls on the Earth. The heavenly positions of the Sun, Moon and lunar nodes are also referenced on the ecliptical circle, a factor important in the Tropical Year and Tropical Month. * The Moon's Orbital Plane intersects the ecliptic at the Moons north and south nodes. This is the plane the Moon gravitationally pulls on the Earth. * The Celestial Equator cuts the ecliptic at the equinox points.

For Sun - Moon diurnal cycles, the reference point is speculated to be located where the Earths horizontal plane is intersected by the ecliptic and the Moons orbital plane. The 9/56 year cycle may be reduced to various angles between the Sun, Moon and the key reference node pairs - the equinoxes, the lunar nodes and the apogee - perigee axis. The angles that seem most important are 0o, 120o and 180o, which would suggest the 1st, 2nd and 3rd harmonics are fundamental to understanding this cycle. These would arise from the tidal effects. Overall, traditional astrology was not applicable to the 9/56 year cycle of financial crises. Even so, some very basic views were valid such as the importance of the Sun and Moon and their associated nodes and astronomical planes. These several variables give rise to very complex cyclical behaviour, which have a major impact on financial trends. Further breakthroughs in cycle theory could open up the possibility of accurate market forecasting years in advance. It is hypothesised that tidal harmonics involving Moon Sun cycles activate cycles of financial distress. Some evidence to support this attractive theory has been offered in this paper. The nodes are only the hypothetical points in the heavens and geophysics would suggest that they should have no significance. However, proximity to the nodes is where importance lies in the timing of financial distress. The key factor seems to be where the Sun or Moon changes its orientation relative to an astronomical plane (moves from below to above or vice versa). The astronomical planes involved are the ecliptic, the celestial equator, the Moons orbital plane and probably the horizontal plane. If Earth - Moon distance was found to be significant in market trends, then apogee would also need to be considered in any Sun - Moon analyses. Assuming such a view holds up to subsequent scrutiny, the complexity of the 9/56 year panic cycle could be reduced to a small number of first principles, thereby nurturing the design of much needed follow up research. A simple, overall theory may be within reach, which would

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be of tremendous benefit in explaining the cyclic nature of mass psychology and the timing of financial crises. Copyright 1986-2007. David McMinn. All Rights Reserved. This paper was summarised from the book MARKET TRADING By The Moon & The Sun, published by Twin Palms Publishing, BLUE KNOB. NSW 2480. Australia. Moon Sun Finance REFERENCES Culver, R B & Ianna, P A. The Gemini Syndrome: A Scientific Evaluation of Astrology. Prometheus Books. 1984. Dean, Geoffrey & Mather, Arthur. Recent Advances in Natal Astrology. Analogic. 1977. Funk, J M. The 56 Year Cycle in American Business Activity. Privately published. 1932. Kindleberger, C P. Manias, Panics and Crashes. John Wiley & Sons. Published 1978. Revised 1989. Revised 1996. Kitchin, J M. Trade Cycles Chart. Published by The Times Annual Financial & Commercial Review. 1920, 1924, 1930. Revised chart to 1933 presented in Gold. A reprint of The Special Number of The Times. June 20, 1933. Times Publishing Co Ltd. 1933. McMinn, David. The 56 Year Cycles and Financial Crises. 15th Conference of Economists. The Economics Society of Australia. Monash University, Melbourne. August 25-29, 1986. McMinn, David. Financial Crises & The 56 Year Cycle. Twin Palms Publishing. 1995. Revised 1996. Revised 1997. McMinn, David. Market Timing By The Moon & The Sun. Twin Palms Publishing. 2006. McMinn, David. Market Timing By The Number 56. Twin Palms Publishing. 2007. McMinn, David. Market Timing Moon Sun Research 2006 2009. Privately published. 2009. Mill, John. Credit Cycles & The Origin of Commercial Panics. Transactions of Manchester Statistical Society. Dec 1867. Williams, David. Financial Astrology. AFA. 1982.

APPENDIX 1

THE SAROS & 56 YEAR LUNISOLAR CYCLES SAROS CYCLE Years Lunisolar Cycles 18.000 18.0 Tropical Years 18.031 19.0 Nodical years 223.0 Synodic Months 18.030 (One Saros Cycle). 18.028 241.0 Tropical Months 18.030 242.0 Nodical Months

Days 6,574.36 6,585.78 6,585.32 6,584.51 6,584.35

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Days 3,287.18 3,292.89 3,292.66 3,292.26 3,292.68 Days 20,453.55 20,450.58 20,449.94 20,450.23 20,449.97

Years 9.000 9.016 9.015

Lunisolar Cycles 9.0 Tropical Years 9.5 Nodical years 111.5 Synodic Months

9.014 120.5 Tropical Months 9.015 121.0 Nodical Months 56 YEAR CYCLE Years 56.000 55.992 55.990 55.991 55.990 Lunisolar Cycles 56.0 Tropical Years 59.0 Nodical Years 692.5 Synodic Months 748.5 Tropical Months 751.5 Nodical Months

Appendix 2

FINANCIAL CRISES IN THE 54/56 YEAR GRID Sun Eo 049 177 052 216 206 87 122 265 311 050 110 177 346 180 196 084 195 194 215 181 118 205 206 Moon Eo 193 155 195 182 170 241 309 358 089 341 087 286 101 285 219 226 139 344 168 338 108 009 170 Phase Ao 144 338 143 326 324 154 189 093 148 290 337 109 115 102 023 142 303 150 313 157 350 164 324

Black Days Event May 09, 1873 Austrian Black Friday Sep 19, 1873 US Black Friday May 13, 1927 German Black Friday Oct 29, 1929 US Black Tuesday Oct 19, 1987 US Black Monday Other Crises - Kindleberger (1996) Jun 19, 1815 English panic. Rothschild market manipulation. Jul 25, 1763 Dutch panic. DeNeufville failed. Dec 17, 1825 British panic. Argentine speculations. Jan 30, 1882 French panic. Union Generale failed. May 11, 1931 Austrian crisis. Creditanstaltfailed. Jul 13, 1931 German crisis. Danatbank failed. Sep 20, 1931 Britain abandons the gold standard. Mar 06, 1933 US bank holiday imposed. Sep 22, 1985 US$ crisis. Plaza Accord. Additional Crisis - Kitchin (1933) Oct 09, 1939 US panic. Philadelphia banks failed. Jun 15, 1875 British crisis. Alexander Collie failed. DJIA AOD Falls => -3.60% Oct 09, 1871 US panic. Chicago fire (a). Oct 08, 1927 AOD fall (-3.65%) Oct 28, 1929 AOD fall (-12.83%) Sep 24, 1931 AOD fall (-7.07%) Jul 21, 1933 AOD fall (-7.84%) Oct 18, 1937 AOD fall (-7.65%) Oct 19, 1987 AOD fall (-22.61%) http://www.davidmcminn.com/pages/smnum56.htm

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THE MOON, THE SUN & THE 9/56 YEAR PANIC CYCLE (a) This was the biggest one day fall in the New York stock market during 1871.

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