RAI IRFAN SHEHZAD (MBA) 0343-8589 584 IRFAN.

RAI1@SKYPE

STA301SOLVED ASSIGNMNT# 4 FALL2012 last dat28 jan 2013

How do you interpret confidence intervals in statistics? If the say 95% confidence interval has been determined (statistically perhaps by least squares fit) there is a 95% confidence that the real value is within the calculated interval. The center of the interval is the most likely value (for the amount of data processed) and is the top of a bell curve (unless the data are skewed). Usually the more data that are processed the smaller the 95% confidence interval will be(although 'flyers' due to obvious error must be eliminated). If you are processing the height of human beings and only one is listed as 23 feet tall, likely there has been a recording error producing a flyer. If you process the heights of 50 people, the 95% confidence interval in the value of average human height will be less refined than if you process the height of 1,000 people or 10,000. Sampling distributions and confidence intervals Normal distribution: one of the most important distributions in Statistics. It is also known as the Gaussian distribution and has the following properties: it is bell shaped it is symmetrical any point on the horizontal axis can be expressed in terms of the number of standard deviations from the mean, for example 95% of the values lie within 1.96 standard deviations either side of the mean. This interval (mean196standard deviations) is called often the reference or normal range.

RAI IRFAN SHEHZAD (MBA) 0343-8589 584 IRFAN.RAI1@SKYPE

The Normal distribution with mean of 0 and standard deviation of 1 is called the standard Normal distribution. Sampling distributions The observed value of a statistic will in general vary from sample to sample. For example the proportion of individuals classified as obese will vary from one random sample to another. If we take many samples from the population of interest then the values of all these individual sample statistics will form a sampling distribution. With a large enough sample the sampling distribution will be Normal. We can use this property of the sampling distribution to help us draw conclusions about the population of interest. Standard Error The standard error is the standard deviationof the sampling distribution of a sample statistic. It gives an estimate of precision of the statistic and is a measure of the uncertainty associated with that statistic. For example, given a single sample the standard error of the sample mean is estimated as sn , where s is the standard deviation of the sample data and n is the number of observations in the sample. Confidence intervals for population parameters The sampling distribution of a statistic is approximately Normally distributed. This fact can be used to provide a measure of how precisely the corresponding population parameter has been estimated. This is known as a confidence interval (CI). A 95% confidence interval takes the form: sample statistic 196standard error Example of mean, standard error and confidence interval The mean height of a randomly selected group of 100 men was 174.8cm with a standard

RAI IRFAN SHEHZAD (MBA) 0343-8589 584 IRFAN.RAI1@SKYPE deviation of 5.07cm. Thus the 95% confidence interval for the sample mean was given by 1748196507100cm=174810cm that is from 173.8cm to 175.8cm. This is usually taken to mean that we are 95% confident that, if we use 174.8cm for the mean height of men, then the worst mistake we are likely to make, is 1cm. Variance of Sample distribution of Sample Mean? Struggling a little with some homework, I'd really appreciate some help working this out. "If a random sample of size 11 is drawn from a population distribution with standard deviation =10 then what will be the variance of the sampling distribution of the sample mean?" The sampling distributions of sample means is equal to the population variance divided by the size of the sample. A quick explanation is that the larger the sample, the closer the mean will be to the population mean so the variance will be smaller, hence dividing by the sample size. If the sample size is one then it is just the original population so you divide by one, giving the same variance. Population variance: 10^2 = 100 Sample size = 11 Variance of sampling distribution of sample means: 100/11 = 9.090909.. Find the mean and variance for the sampling distribution given below. P No. Of Samples Probability f(P) 0 1 1/2 1/3 9 9/20 2/3 9 9/20 1 1 1/2 Sigma 20 1 Data: 0,.3333333[9],.6666667[9],1, n= 20 x= 10 , x= 5.999999999999999 , = .5 , n-1=.2294157, n=.2236068 Variance: n=.05 (n-1)=5.263158E-02 Bi-Modal, modes are: .3333333333333333 , .6666666666666666 Median = .5 Mid-range = .5 Range= 1 Quartiles: q0= 0, q1= .3333333, q2= .5, q3= .6666667, q4= 1, IQR = .3333333 Q.01 part 2 see this example How to calculate standard deviation from Minimum and maximum values? Suppose,

RAI IRFAN SHEHZAD (MBA) 0343-8589 584 IRFAN.RAI1@SKYPE minimum radius=2 and maximum radius=6,number of ball 100.I want to calculate the standard deviation from this.How? deciation how to calculate the minimum and maximum mean and standard ?

Let the mean be x-bar Let the standard deviation be sigma If you have 100 samples then the max number is about x-bar + 3 sigma the min number is about x-bar - 3 sigma If you take the different you have Range = 6 sigma so Range/6 ~ sigma. So to estimate the standard deviation calculate (6 - 2) / 6 = 4/6 = 2/3 Going the other way. If you have the mean and standard deviation. Then max ~ x-bar + 6 sigma min ~ x-bar - 6 sigma. b. A sample of people at the university cafeteria on meatless day showed 20% of them preferred vegetable dishes. How large a sample is needed if we want to be 95% confident that our estimate of population proportion is within 0.03?

In order to have a margin of error equal to 0.03 with 95% confidence, you want the following equation to be true: 0.03 = 1.96(p/sqrtN) Where p/sqrt(N) is the sample standard deviation. 1.96 is the z-value associated with the 95% confidence interval. If you don't know p, then use 0.5 which is the conservative approach. 0.03 is the margin of error you wish to hit.

RAI IRFAN SHEHZAD (MBA) 0343-8589 584 IRFAN.RAI1@SKYPE Now, solve for N: 0.03 = 1.96(0.50/sqrtN) sqrtN = 1.96(0.50)/0.03 = 98/3, next square both sides N = 1067.1 , so round up to the next highest integer 1068 to assure it will meet your margin of error of 0.03 So, make your sample size equal 1068 and this will produce a margin of error equal to 0.03. Hope that helped