1 ISCI 2012

Time Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation for Evaluation of Reliability Indices of Power Distribution System
1 1

Nisha R. Godha, 2Surekha R. Deshmukh, 3Rahul V. Dagade

Department of Electrical Engineering, PVGsCOET and BSCOER, Pune University, Pune, India. 2 Department of Electrical Engineering, PVGsCOET, Pune University, Pune, India. 3 Department of Computer Engineering, MMCOE, Pune University, Pune, India. dagade.nisha@gmail.com, d_surekha@hotmail.com, rahul.dagade@gmail.com

Abstract A Time sequential Monte Carlo simulation procedure is presented for reliability evaluation of distribution system. A stochastic system model to evaluate load point indices and reliability indices of a distribution system is developed in C++. It considers random failures of different components within the system and its effect on the system. Developed simulation program is tested on Feeder 1 of Bus 2 of Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) and set of system related indices are presented. Keywords: Distribution system, Reliability evaluation, Load point indices, Reliability indices, Random failures, Time sequential Monte Carlo simulation.

1. Introduction
Reliability associated with a power system is a measure of the overall ability of the power delivery system to satisfy the customer demand for electrical energy. Reliability indices are the parameters that help in calculating and analyzing the reliability of a distribution system. The reliability indices help in root cause analysis of the problem, in benchmarking the system with other competitors in the field, and to improve the performance to next higher level. In the past decades, several methods for assessing the distribution system reliability have been developed. These methods can be roughly categorized as the simulation and analytical methods. Analytical methods are based on some assumptions concerning the system outage records but there exists the execution time problem for large-scale systems. The simulation methods are the most flexible due to two reasons, first, it considers the random occurrence of faults and second, it gives the variability of indices. Major advantage of the Monte Carlo Simulation is that, it gives detailed knowledge of the probability distributions of reliability indices. Thus in this paper time sequential Monte Carlo Simulation is used for the evaluation of distribution system reliability indices. Section II provides literature review; Section III presented the overview of simulation model. In Section IV implementation of the algorithm on a practical test system and the results are presented, while results are discussed and conclusions are developed in section V.

2. Literature Review
Reliability indices are widely used for assessing the effectiveness of continuity of supply in distribution systems. Their use is essential for setting up performance standards for the continuity of supply regulation. Billinton et al. (1984) explained distinction between local indices referred to a single load point such as, frequency and duration of the interruptions,

2 ISCI 2012 power and energy not supplied, and global indices representing the overall reliability of the system such as SAIFI, SAIDI, CAIDI etc. According to Endrenyi (1978) the reliability indices calculation is generally performed by using uncertain variables or parameters, so that reliability indices become random variables. These uncertain quantities could be the number of fault occurrences and the restoration times, for which a stochastic model of the system operation can be used. Availability of the probability distributions makes it possible to easily assess the probability, that any reliability index exceeds a specified limit imposed by an authority. The classical reliability analysis performed with the Markov approach assumes times to failure and repair times of the system components to be exponentially distributed, so that failure and repair rates of system components are constant. However, the use of exponential distributions in some cases is not realistic. In particular, Billinton et al. (1994) described that the exponential distribution of restoration times does not properly represent their random nature so that lognormal, normal and gamma PDFs have been proposed in different papers. Monte Carlo methods have been used for evaluating the probability distributions of reliability indices. Analytical evaluation of raw and central moments of reliability indices has been addressed by Billinton et al. (1986) using the results for a posteriori evaluation of the PDFs. Roy Billinton (1999) presented a computer program for time sequential Monte Carlo simulation technique, which can be used in evaluation of complex distribution system. General distribution system elements, operating models and radial configurations are considered in the program. The results obtained using both analytical and simulation methods are compared. The mean values and the probability distributions for both load point and system indices are illustrated using a practical test system. Wang et al. (2002) presented a practical reliability assessment algorithm for distribution systems of general network configurations. This algorithm is an extension of the analytical simulation approach for radial distribution systems. The algorithm is efficient for large-scale radial/meshed distribution systems, and can accommodate the effects of fault isolation and load restoration. Carpaneto et al. (2004) presented a new method for computing the probability distribution of reliability indices. The random sums introduced by the randomness of the number of fault occurrences in the time interval of analysis are handled by using a characteristic functions-based approach. Prado (2009) proposed a method to analyze the economic feasibility of a new order acceptance in a scenario of unit costs variability. It describes that the simulation is an attempt to replicate a real system through the construction of a model as similar to reality as possible. Simulation has been used in engineering to describe situations in which one tries to understand the system characteristics through another similar system. A main point in the reliability analysis performed by Radu et al. (2010) is the probabilistic characterization of the random variables involved in the reliability calculations, as time to failure, duration of service restoration and reclosures time. The main focus of this paper is to provide easy to implement algorithm using time sequential Monte Carlo Simulation for evaluation of reliability indices of a distribution system and apply it to feeder 1 of RBTS Bus 2.

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3. Research Methodology
Monte Carlo techniques solve difficult reliability problems using random numbers. Monte Carlo methods are non-deterministic, and they fall into the category of statistical calculations. It is based on transforming set of random numbers into another set of numbers (random variables) which have the same distribution of the variable considered. In each iteration, the result is stored and, at the end of all iterations, the sequence of results generated is transformed into a frequency distribution that permits the calculus of descriptive statistics such as mean and standard deviation. Monte Carlo simulation can provide information related to the probability distributions of the reliability indices in addition to their average values. They require heavy use of computers for repetitively solving the problems as each solution is different from the others. Our methodology consists of development of computer algorithm based on time sequential Monte Carlo simulation for calculating reliability indices. It uses a random number generator, the probability distributions of the component failure and restoration processes to generate up and down time history of components of distribution system. The system reliability indices and their distributions are obtained from the generated system history. The index probability distributions reflect the future reliability performance of the system. They can be broadly classified into, namely state sampling and sequential methods. In this paper time sequential simulation method is used. 3.1 Time Sequential Simulation Technique The essential requirement in time sequential simulation is to generate realistic artificial operating/restoration histories of the relevant elements. These artificial histories depend on the system operating/restoration modes and the reliability parameters of the elements. Distribution system elements include basic transmission equipment such as transmission lines and transformers, and protection elements such as disconnect switches, fuses, breakers, and alternate supplies. The time during which the element remains in the up state is called the time to failure (TTF) or failure time (FT). The time during which the element is in the down state is called restoration time that can be either the time to repair (TTR) or the time to replace. The process of transiting from the up state to the down state is the failure process. Transition from up state to a down state can be caused by the failure of an element or by the removal of elements for maintenance. Fig.1 shows the simulated element operating/restoration history of an element.
TTR Up Down TTR TTF

Fig.1 Element operating/repair history The parameters TTF, TTR are random variables and may have different probability distributions according to Billinton et al. (1994). The probability distributions used to simulate these times are Exponential, Gamma, Normal, Lognormal and Poisson distributions. Here exponential distribution is used in reliability evaluation of distribution system. The p.d.f. of an exponential distribution is,

4 ISCI 2012 , 0, 0 ,

(1)

Many studies indicate that time to failure is reasonably described by an exponential distribution. Protection elements are used to automatically isolate failed elements or failed areas from healthy areas when one or more failures occur in system. They can exist in either functioning or failed states which can be described in terms of their probabilities. The uniform distribution can be generated directly by a uniform random number generator. The random variables from other distributions are converted from the generated uniform number. The three basic methods are the inverse transform composition and acceptance-rejection techniques. Random numbers are generated and converted into TTF or TTR using equation (2). 1 (2) ln Where, U is uniformly distributed and T is exponentially distributed. 3.2 Simulation Algorithm The process used to evaluate distribution system reliability indices using sequential simulation consists of following steps:
Algorithm: Time Sequential Monte Carlo Simulation for Reliability Evaluation of Distribution System 1. Define the system i.e. input data such as location of components, failure rate, failure duration, load connected etc. of the system, and define the random seed as srand((unsigned int) time(&t)). 2. Input number of sample years N, simulation period T 3. Simulation starts, n = 1, t=0 4. Generate random numbers [0-1] for each element in the system and convert it into times to failure (TTF), based on the failure time distribution and the expected time to failure of each element. Using Eq. (4), TTF can be calculated. TTFj = (-log (U)/) x 8760, Where U is random number between 0 to 1. 5. Determine the element e with minimum TTF 6. Define e as failed element and perform following things a) Compute TTR and TTS using appropriate probability distribution for element repair and switching time b) Determine location of e c) Find the load points Li that are affected due to failure at e d) Determine failure duration for each affected load point Li 7. Generate a new random number for e, convert that it into new TTF 8. t = t + TTR + newTTF 9. If t is less than simulation period T then goto step 5. 10. Calculate number of failures (ij) and duration of failures (rij) of each load point for each simulation period T 11. Do n = n+1, if n < Sample years N then go to step 4. 12. Calculate average value of load point failure rate and failure duration for sample years N 13. Calculate the system indices for total sample years N.

Flowchart for above algorithm is given in Fig. 2

4. Analysis and Results

The program in C++ is developed to evaluate the reliability analysis. A feeder (Feeder 1 of Bus 2) from practical test system known as RBTS (Roy Billiton Test System) system is considered for the sequential analysis. The test system is shown in Fig. 3. The data is used

5 ISCI 2012 from paper by L. Goel et al. (1991). The failure rate, repair rate and switching time are assumed to be exponentially distributed. The simulation is performed for a period of 50000 sample years in C++prompt. The random numbers generated do not appear in any table since they were inserted directly in the calculation formulas when necessary. Start Define system, N, T Assign n=1, t=0 Generate random number for each element and convert in into TTF Determine element e with minimum TTF Define e as failed element, compute TTR, TTS, determine location of e, find failed elements Li and failed duration of Li Generate new random number for e, convert it into new TTF, t = t + TTR + new TTF Yes t<T

Compute ij and rij for load point i due to failure j Compute n=n+1 n< N Yes

Find load point and system indices Stop Fig. 2 Flow chart for Monte Carlo simulation algorithm 4.1 Average value of Load Point and System Indices The average value of the load point and system indices for Feeder 1 can be calculated using simulation techniques. For the feeder it is assumed that disconnectors, fuses, alternate supply are available and repair time of transformer is taken into account.

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Conventional Generation as Alternate Source of Supply

11KV

Fig. 3 Simple feeder 1 Table 1 shows representative results of the load point indices obtained using time sequential techniques for feeder 1. The average value of system indices are shown in Table 2. Table 1 Load point indices for feeder 1
Index (failures/yr) r (hr/failure) U (hr/yr) LP1 0.238 13.905 3.311 LP2 0.251 14.181 3.559 LP3 0.251 14.112 3.542 LP4 0.238 13.781 3.273 LP5 0.250 13.456 3.366 LP6 0.249 14.335 3.581 LP7 0.243 13.759 3.346

Table 2 System indices for feeder 1

SAIFI (failure/yr/customer) 0.247 SAIDI (hrs/yr/customer) 3.373 CAIDI (hrs/customer) 13.675 ASAI 0.999615 ASUI 0.000385 EENS (MWh/yr) 12.100

SAIFI indicates the number of interruptions per year i.e. how many times a system fails in a year. SAIDI is the duration for which system is in outage state for a failure. CAIDI represents the average time required to restore service to a customer per interruption. ASAI is the actual reliability index it is also called as index of reliability (IOR). EENS gives the expected energy not supplied per customer. 4.2 Probability Distributions of System Indices The probability distributions of all system indices for each feeder are also evaluated. Fig.4 Fig. shows the probability distributions of SAIFI, SAIDI, CAIDI, ASAI, ASUI and EENS for feeder 1. The probability distribution of these indices provides information based on number of customers, the energy level, duration hours and the number of interruptions. 4.3 Comparison on of Analytical and Monte Carlo Method Table 3 shows representative results of the load point indices for feeder 1 obtained using the analytical (A) and simulation techniques (S). The average values of system indices are shown in Table 4 for two approaches. approa Here the analytical approach is not described in detail, only the results obtained by analytical method are compared by the results of simulation method.

7 ISCI 2012 Table 3 Comparison of the load point indices

Load point (i) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Failure rate (failures/year) Analytical (A) Simulation (S) 0.2390 0.2381 0.2520 0.251 0.2520 0.251 0.2390 0.2375 0.2520 0.2501 0.2490 0.2498 0.2520 0.2432 Unavailability (hours/year) Analytical (A) Simulation (S) 3.575 3.3108 3.64 3.5588 3.64 3.5417 3.575 3.2727 3.64 3.3657 3.624 3.5805 3.60 3.3459

Fig.4 Histogram of reliability indices for Feeder 1

8 ISCI 2012 Table 4 Comparison of the system point indices

Indices SAIFI SAIDI CAIDI ASAI ASUI EENS Analytical (A) 0.248 3.62 14.591 0.999587 0.000413 13.172 Simulation (S) 0.247 3.373 13.675 0.999615 0.000385 12.1

The results in Table 3 and Table 4 from both simulation and analytical approaches are very close. The analytical approach provides a direct and practical technique for radial distribution system evaluation and is quite adequate if only the average values of the load point and system indices are required. The result obtained by analytical method gives only a single average value. This method does not take into account the uncertainty in the behavior of the system. The Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) method gives the results close to the results obtained by analytical method, MCS method gives additional information related to variation of indices, the sequential analysis gives the information of probability of occurrence of failures, failure duration, number of customer getting affected for each load point, also it gives the probability distributions for system indices. The probability distributions of system indices obtained from simulation method for feeder 1 are shown in Fig. 4. Thus it gives the nature of variation of indices which is not possible to by analytical methods. Hence Monte Carlo simulation method is more practical as it include random nature of occurrences of failures.

5. Conclusion
Sequential simulation method is used to assess distribution system reliability. The results are compared by the results obtained from analytical method. Both techniques provide valuable information on the expected performance of distribution systems. The analytical approach evaluates the indices by a set of mathematical equations and therefore analysis procedure is simple. The simulation technique evaluates the reliability indices by series of trials and therefore the procedure is more complicated and requires a longer computer time. A sequential simulation approach can provide the additional information on the annual variability of the predicted indices. Therefore it may be more practical to use simulation technique when additional information is required. The use of the Monte Carlo simulation was necessary for treating, case by case, since the adoption of a simple arithmetic mean for the values is not suitable for a great variability reality. References Billinton R. and Allan R. N. (1984) Reliability Evaluation of Power Systems, New York, Plenum. Billinton R. and Goel R. (1986) An analytical approach to evaluate probability distributions associated with the reliability indices of electric distribution systems, IEEE Trans. Power Delivery, vol. PWRD-1, pp. 245251, July. Goel L. Billinton R. and Allan R. N. I.Sjarief, K.S.So (1991) A reliability test system for educational purpose basic distribution system data and results, IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vo1.6, No. 2, May.

9 ISCI 2012 Billinton R. and Li W.(1994) Reliability Evaluation of Electric Power Systems Using Monte Carlo Methods. New York, Plenum. Billinton Roy, Peng Wang (1999) Teaching Distribution System Reliability Evaluation Using Monte Carlo Simulation, IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 14, No. 2, May. Carpaneto E., Chicco G., Mosso A. and Ponta A. (2002) Analytical evaluation of the probability distributions of reliability indices for large distribution systems, in Proc. PMAPS2002, Naples, Italy, Sept. 2226, pp. 3136. Carpaneto Enrico, Chicco Gianfranco (2004) Evaluation of the Probability Density Functions of Distribution System Reliability Indices with a Characteristic Functions-Based Approach IEEE Trans. on Power Systems, Vol. 19, No. 2, May. Endrenyi J. (1978) Reliability Modeling in Electric Power Systems, New York, Wiley. Porumb Radu, Golovanov Nicolae, Postolache Petru, Toader Cornel (2010) Power Quality in Modern Electric Distribution Systems Assessment using Probabilistic Approach, Modern Electric Power Systems, Wroclaw, Poland. Prado Almeida, (2009) Monte Carlo Simulation Applied to Order Economic Analysis, Abstract No: 011-0744, POMS 20th Annual Conference Orlando, Florida U.S.A. May 1 - 4. Wang Zhuding, Shokooh Farrokh, Qiu Jun (2002), An Efficient Algorithm for Assessing Reliability Indexes of General Distribution Systems IEEE Trans. On Power Systems, Vol. 17, No. 3, August.
Nomenclature: SAIFI System Average Interruption Frequency Index SAIDI System Average Interruption Duration Index CAIDI Customer Average Interruption Duration Index ASAI Average Service Availability Index ASUI Average Service Unavailability Index EENS Expected Energy not supplied index PDF Probability Distribution Function TTF Time to Failure TTR Time to Repair Nisha Godha graduated from Dr. B.A.M.U. University and pursuing post graduation from PVG COET, Pune University, India. Her area of interest includes Power System, Reliability Analysis of Distribution system. Currently she is working as a Lecturer in Electrical Engineering Department of TSSMs Bhivarabai Sawant college of Engineering and Research, Pune University, India. Surekha Deshmukh graduated from Shivaji University and had Masters from Pune University, India. She is a member of IEEE, a member of Institution of Engineers, (I) and Life member of ISTE. She is Secretary of IEEE IAS/PES Chapter, Bombay. Her field of interest includes Power System Operation and Control, Power System Economics and Applications of Artificial Neural Network to Power Systems. Currently she is working as a Senior Lecturer in Electrical Engineering Dept of Pune Vidyarthi Grihas College of Engineering and Technology, Pune, India. Rahul Dagade graduated and post graduated in Computer Engineering from Pune University, India. He is Life member of ISTE. His field of interest includes development of efficient computer algorithm for interdisciplinary research, algorithm analysis and performance and reliability analysis of networks and protocols. Previously he was working with Pune Institute of Computer Technology, currently he is with Department of Computer Engineering at Marathwada Mitra Mandals College of Engineering, Pune, India.