Seven Year Flights Service Units Forecast 2013 2019

Network Manager
nominated by
the European Commission
EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast

February 2013
Flight Movements and Service Units 2013 - 2019
EUROCONTROL
EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2013-2019
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This report presents the February 2013 update of the EUROCONTROL seven-year flight and
service units forecast. This update uses the most-recent available traffic statistics and
economic forecasts, and more up-to-date information in terms of traffic trends and recent airindustry-related events.
IFR movements
Traffic growth in 2012 was marked by economic weakness in much of Europe and by several
airline failures locally adding to the general traffic decline, in particular of domestic traffic.
Looking ahead, the weakness of the economic outlook in Europe, very high oil prices,
slower-than-expected recovery from the Arab Spring and the financial difficulties of the air
traffic industry are reflected in the new flight forecast that has been revised downwards
compared to the last one (Ref. 1). 2013 is forecast to see a flight decline of 1.3%. However,
considering the uncertainty around the European economy, we also draw attention to the low
forecast which has a decline of 2.9% in 2013.
In the following years, economic growth is expected to return and flight growth is expected to
stabilise at around 3% per year, a value little change compared to the September 2012
forecast, though lower than long-term historic trends. However, due to the weak 2012 the
growth will apply to lower traffic volumes. Consequently, the 2008 peak of traffic is now
expected to be passed only in 2016, a year later than expected in the September 2012
forecast, when traffic reaches 10.3 million flights ( 0.6 million).
By 2019, traffic is expected to reach 11.2 million IFR movements (1 million) in Europe, 17%
more than in 2012.
Growth at a State level shows a very wide variation, even amongst States with high volumes
of traffic. By 2019, the annual average flight growth rates tend to increase towards the East
of Europe: 1.4% in Spain, 2% in Germany and Italy, around 3% in Poland, 4.5% in Ukraine
and 7% in Turkey.
Figure 1. Summary of flight forecast for Europe (ESRA08).

ESRA08
2009
2008
IFR Flight Movements
(Thousands)
Annual Growth
(compared to
previous year)
Page i
2010
2013
2014
9,559
9,924 10,358 10,835 11,222 11,658 12,079
3.4%
9,493 9,784 9,548
9,424
9,689
9,975 10,298 10,576 10,885 11,195
2.3%
2011
2012
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
AAGR
2019/
2012
10,083
9,413
9,276
9,409
9,517
9,690
9,815
9,969 10,132
0.9%
0.1%
3.8%
4.4%
4.6%
3.6%
3.9%
3.6%
3.4%
0.4%
-6.6%
0.8%
3.1% -2.4%
-1.3%
2.8%
3.0%
3.2%
2.7%
2.9%
2.8%
2.3%
-2.9%
1.4%
1.2%
1.8%
1.3%
1.6%
1.6%
0.9%
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Edition Number: v1.0
Figure 2. Average annual flight growth 2012-2019 per State.
En-route Service Units

Though average weight and distance continue to grow, the economic weakness continues to
depress service unit growth too. In 2012, 121.6 million service units (TSU) were produced.
This represents a drop of 1.3% compared to 2011, a second decline since the 2009 dip after
growth figures of about 3.5% and 5% for 2010 and 2011. Overall TSU declined in a lesser
extent than flights: for the ESRA08 region flights decreased by 2.4%. TSU remain linked to
the evolution of the flights.
Following the flight forecast, the forecast for 2013 TSU is revised downwards by 1.5
percentage points to now remain almost unchanged with a slight decline by 0.1% and reach
around 121.5 million. In the current fragile economic outlook, the low forecast is also
relevant: we expect a decline of 1.7% in 2013 to 119.6 million TSU.
Based on these lower numbers for 2013 and a revised medium-term flight forecast, the TSU
are forecasted to be about 22% higher in 2019 than in 2012, reaching in total around 147.7
million, representing a baseline scenario average growth of 2.8% per year, implying an
annual growth of 3.3% as of 2014 onwards.
Figure 3. Summary of service units forecast for EUROCONTROL Member States
(CRCO11).
CRCO11
Service Units forecast
Page ii
Forecast May12
TSU
(million)
Growth
Forecast Sep12
TSU
(million)
Growth
121.6
Forecast Feb 2013

TSU
(million)
Growth
121.6
-1.3%
Actual 2012 vs.2011
121.6
Forecast 2013 vs.2012
125.6
2.4%
124.4
1.4%
121.5
-0.1%
129.7
3.2%
128.2
3.0%
125.7
3.4%
143.1
16.1%
141.9
15.2%
138.6
12%
Forecast 2019 vs. 2012
NA
147.7
22%
NA
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Edition: v1.0
Any user of these seven-year forecasts is strongly advised to use the forecast range (lowgrowth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes downside risks (eg. this
forecast is prepared in the context of an economic downturn which could further deteriorate)
and upside risks (eg. current high load factors could result in quicker-than-expected traffic
recovery when it finally arrives). These are discussed later in Section 6. For the flights, by
2019, the high-growth scenario has 0.9 million more and low-growth scenario 1 million fewer
flights than the base scenario (+1.1% and -1.4% in terms of growth respectively).
A two-year flight forecast 2013-2014 will next be published in May 2013 at the same time as
an update of the seven-year service-units forecast for 2013-2019. Parts of the seven-year
flight forecast will be refreshed in September.
Comments are welcome at statfor.info@eurocontrol.int.
Edition: v1.0
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EUROPEAN ORGANISATION
FOR THE SAFETY OF AIR NAVIGATION
EUROCONTROL
EUROCONTROL 7-Year
IFR Flight Movements and
Service units Forecast
2013-2019
Edition Number
Edition Date
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:
v1.0
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EUROPEAN AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PROGRAMME
DOCUMENT CHARACTERISTICS
TITLE
EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service

Units Forecast: 2013-2019
Reference Number:
Document Identifier
Edition Number:
STATFOR Doc493
Edition Date:
28/02/13
v1.0
28/02/2013
Abstract
This report presents the 2013 EUROCONTROL forecast of both instrument flight rules (IFR) flights
and Total en-route Service Units in Europe in 2013-2019. It has been prepared by EUROCONTROL
Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR) in December 2012-February 2013 and it replaces the
seven-year flight and service units forecast of September 2012.
This document contains a description and discussion of the main results as well as a comparison
with previously published results.
STATFOR
Movements
Service Units
Air Traffic
Flight Movements
Short-term
Keywords
Forecast
Trends
Contact Person(s)
Tel
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An De Bondt
Elsa Freville
Medium-Term
Traffic Flow
Unit
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DOCUMENT APPROVAL
The following table identifies all management authorities who have successively approved
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AUTHORITY
NAME AND SIGNATURE
DATE
D. Marsh
Head of Forecasting &
Traffic Analysis
B. Flynn
Head of Operational
Monitoring & Reporting
J. Sultana
Chief Operating
Officer
Directorate Network
Management
J. Dopagne
Director Network
Management
2013 The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL).
This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole
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DOCUMENT CHANGE RECORD

The following table records the complete history of the successive editions of the present
document.
EDITION
NUMBER
EDITION
DATE
v0.1
26/02/13
Draft for internal review
All
v1.0
28/02/13
Final version
All
Page vi
INFOCENTRE
REFERENCE
REASON FOR CHANGE
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PAGES
AFFECTED
CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................1
1.1
General......................................................................................................................................1
1.2
Summary of Forecast Methods.................................................................................................1
2. FLIGHT AND SERVICE UNITS TRENDS IN 2012 ...............................................3

3. FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS ......................................................10
4. GROWTH IN IFR FLIGHTS TO 2019 .................................................................13
4.1
Short-term outlook (2013 & 2014)...........................................................................................13
4.2
Medium-term outlook (up to 2019)..........................................................................................16
4.3
Comparison with previous forecast.........................................................................................20
4.4
Airport Constraints ..................................................................................................................21
4.5
High-Speed Train ....................................................................................................................22
5. SERVICE UNITS GROWTH TO 2019.................................................................24

5.1
Short-term outlook (2013 & 2014)...........................................................................................24
5.2
Medium-term outlook (2015 to 2019)......................................................................................25
6. RISK TO THE FORECAST GROWTH................................................................28

7. GLOSSARY ........................................................................................................30
Annex A. FORECAST METHODS .........................................................................31
A.1
Flight Forecast ........................................................................................................................31
A.2
Service Units Forecast ............................................................................................................35
Annex B. TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITONS ..........................................................37

B.1
ESRA08...................................................................................................................................37
B.2
Traffic regions .........................................................................................................................38
B.3
Functional Airspace Blocks .....................................................................................................40
Annex C. SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS .......................................42

C.1
Economic growth.....................................................................................................................42
C.2
Events and Trends ..................................................................................................................45
C.3
Low-Cost Carrier Growth ........................................................................................................48
C.4
Load Factors ...........................................................................................................................50
C.5
High-Speed train Network Development.................................................................................52
C.6
Airport Capacity.......................................................................................................................53
C.7
Airport Traffic Switch ...............................................................................................................54
C.8
Airline schedules .....................................................................................................................54
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Annex D. SUMMARY OF IFR MOVEMENTS FORECAST FOR EUROPE ...........56

Annex E.
FUTURE TRAFFIC AND GROWTH.......................................................59
Annex F.
STATE BY STATE TWO-YEAR SERVICE UNITS FORECAST............69
Annex G. SEVEN-YEAR SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE ..................72

Annex H. REFERENCES .......................................................................................79
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List of Figures.
Figure 1. Summary of flight forecast for Europe (ESRA08). ..................................................... i
Figure 2. Average annual flight growth 2012-2019 per State................................................... ii
Figure 3. Summary of service units forecast for EUROCONTROL Member States (CRCO11).
.......................................................................................................................................... ii
Figure 4. EU GDP forecasts for 2012 have seen strong downward revisions. ........................3
Figure 5. Fuel Prices have remained high throughout 2012. ...................................................4
Figure 6. Load factors of European cross-border and international traffic have reached record
high values. .......................................................................................................................4
Figure 7. Actual traffic of 2012 compared with the forecast of February 2012.........................5
Figure 8. Traffic losses have reduced over the summer for the main contributors to European
traffic. ................................................................................................................................5
Figure 9. Turkey remains main contributor and fast grower and Poland and Ukraine traffic
was boosted by EURO2012..............................................................................................6
Figure 10. Russia is the first non-European destination adding flights. ...................................7
Figure 11. Low-cost is back to growth since this summer and Charter is recovering from the
Arab Spring. ......................................................................................................................8
Figure 12. Market share of the Low-Cost segment increased by 1 percentage point in 2012. 8
Figure 13. Evolution of total service units recorded in CRCO11 area in 2009-2012................9
Figure 14. EU GDP forecasts have seen strong downward revisions for 2013. ...................10
Figure 15. Since the last forecast, the economic growth outlook for EU27 has been revised
downwards and remains lower in the later years by 0.6 pp. ...........................................11
Figure 16. Summary of forecast for Europe. ..........................................................................13
Figure 17. States forecast detail for 2013. .............................................................................15
Figure 18. States forecast detail for 2014. .............................................................................16
Figure 19. Average Annual Growth per State, 2019 v 2012...................................................17
Figure 20. Number of additional movements per day for each state (2019 v 2012). .............18
Figure 21. Flows adding the most movements, 2019 v 2012................................................18
Figure 22. IFR flight growth in Europe will stay persistently below pre-2009 long-term trend.
........................................................................................................................................19
Figure 23. Average annual growth rates for FABs, 2019 v 2012. ..........................................19
Figure 24. For Europe, current forecast stands below the low-scenario of the MTF12b in
2013 and will remain lower than the previous baseline...................................................20
Figure 25. Forecast revision for 2018 per State (Source: EUROCONTROL). .......................21
Figure 26. Impact of airport constraints..................................................................................22
Figure 27. Impact of high-speed train: reduction in IFR departures for ESRA08 (top) and
most affected States (bottom). ........................................................................................23
Figure 28: Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe............................................26
Figure 29: Comparison 2012-2017 of the forecast between the current forecast and
September 2012 for CRCO11 Area. ...............................................................................26
Figure 30. Average annual growth of service units between 2012 and 2019.........................27
Figure 31. Summary of short-term forecast method...............................................................31
Figure 32. Preparation process of the Medium-Term Forecast..............................................33
Figure 33. Service units forecast method...............................................................................35
Figure 34. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area. ...............................................37
Figure 35. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012. ..........................................38
Figure 36. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012. .............39
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Figure 37. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics before 31 August 2012............40
Figure 38. FAB initiatives as of August 2012. ........................................................................41
Figure 39. Since the last forecast, the economic growth outlook for EU27 has been revised
downwards for 2013 and remains lower in the later years..............................................42
Figure 40. Summary of changes in GDP forecasts for 2012-2014 for EU27: constant
downward revisions from end 2011. ...............................................................................43
Figure 41. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone.................................................................................44
Figure 42. GDP growth by Origin-Destination Zone...............................................................45
Figure 43. GDP growth by Traffic Region. .............................................................................45
Figure 44. Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone..................................................47
Figure 45. Low-cost effects by Traffic Zone. ..........................................................................49
Figure 46. European load factors reached record highs during the whole year 2012 (source
data: AEA.)......................................................................................................................51
Figure 47. Load factors by Traffic Region. .............................................................................52
Figure 48. High Speed Train times evolution as from 2013 to 2019. ....................................52
Figure 49. The schedule expects a monthly decline of around -3% to -4% for Europe until the
end of the Winter schedule. ............................................................................................54
Figure 50. Growth in Europe ..................................................................................................56
Figure 51. Flights on main flow categories in Europe ............................................................57
Figure 52. Flights and growth on biggest region-to-region flows in Europe ...........................58
Figure 53. Forecast Summary: Annual IFR Movements 2008-2019 ......................................59
Figure 54. Forecast Summary: Annual traffic growth rates 2008-2019..................................64
Figure 55. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2013-2014. ....................69
Figure 56. Forecast Summary: Annual chargeable en-route service units 2013-2014. .........71
Figure 57. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2008-2019. ....................72
Figure 58. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units growth 2008-2019. ........75
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1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 General
This report presents the forecast of annual numbers of instrument flight rules (IFR)
flight movements and of total service units (TSU) for 2013 to 2019 prepared by the
EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR) in December 2012February 2013. This replaces the previous forecasts, such as those issued in
September 2012 (Ref. 1 and Ref. 2) and December 2012.
This report contains a summary and discussion of the forecast, starting with a
discussion of traffic in 2012 (Section 2), the assumptions made in the forecast
scenarios (Section 3), some highlights from first the flight forecast then the service
units forecast (Section 4 and 5), and the risks going with this forecast (Section 6).
More details are provided in the annexes: forecast methods (Annex A), geographical
definitions (Annex B), forecast assumptions (Annex C), flight forecast details for
Europe as a whole (Annex D) then flight forecast totals per State (Annex E), two-year
forecast of service units per state (Annex F) and finally the seven-year forecast per
state of service units (Annex G). The detail of the flight forecast for each State) is
provided on STATFOR website (Ref. 3).
STATFOR also prepares a 20-year forecast to be published in June 2013 and will be
available on the STATFOR web pages (Ref. 4). An update of the first two years of
this flight forecast will be published in May 2013 along with an updated of the sevenyear service units forecast. Both forecasts for the all seven years will be refreshed in
September, taking into account the latest traffic and economic conditions.
1.2 Summary of Forecast Methods

The EUROCONTROL seven-year flight forecast grows airport-pair traffic using
models of recent trends, and of future economic and industry developments.
The seven-year flight forecast is a blend of two forecasting methods: time-series
modelling of recent traffic trends; and a model of future flight demand based on
economic growth and other developments. The trend-based modelling provides better
accuracy in the first years, so is more influential in the blend in the first two years. The
economic and industry modelling has more influence on the results for the later years.
The time-series modelling looks at recent and longer-term patterns of growth and
seasonality, taking into account information about one-off events, about economic
growth and available data on the airline schedules for the coming months.
The economic model is developed by growing baseline traffic (all IFR flight
movements for the last calendar year) taking into account factors such as economic
growth, past patterns of supply, the growth of low-cost carriers, and the influence
of high-speed trains.
The results of these processes are then constrained by annual airport capacities
and converted from airport-to-airport counts into flights through airspace volumes
using the flight patterns in the last 12 months and recent trends in how these patterns
are changing. No account of future route network changes is made (see section 6).
More detail of the method is given in Annex A.1.
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Three scenarios are used to capture the likely range of growth of flight movements.
They comprise: the low-growth and high-growth scenario which vary economic
growth, load factors and other variables in order to capture the most-likely range; and
the baseline forecast which is a guidance figure within this range. The scenarios are
discussed in Section 3 and detailed in Annex C.
Experience in recent years has shown the need to take the whole forecast range
(from low-growth to high-growth) into account. For this new forecast, the main areas
of risk are discussed in Section 6.
The seven-year forecast of service units strongly relies on the seven-year flight
forecast.
The forecast of service units uses both monthly data of total service units recorded in
the route charges system as well as flight information such as the average maximum
take-off weight (MTOW) and distance flown. The forecast is based on a combination
of two parallel approaches:
The short-term forecast (two-year) is mainly based on time-series modelling of

trends, seasonal and cyclical patterns in actual monthly service units. It also relies
strongly on the flight or overflight forecast for each state and thus picks up future
information that is included in the flight forecast (economic growth forecasts,
schedule data, future events etc).
The medium-term forecast (seven-year) uses the most recent seven-year flight
forecast as well as trends in the evolution of average distances and MTOW of the
flights across each State.
The detailed forecasting methodology can be found in Annex A.2.
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2. FLIGHT AND SERVICE UNITS TRENDS IN 2012

Traffic growth in 2012 has been marked by economic weakness in much of
Europe and by several airline failures locally adding to the general traffic decline,
in particular of domestic traffic.
As 2011 drew to a close, any optimism faded away that 2012 might prove to be
stronger economically. The economic forecasts for 2012 had been revised sharply
downwards during 2011, and lost further ground during 2012 itself (see Figure 4), even
if central bank intervention helped to reduce the risk of a Eurozone breakup.
Figure 4. EU GDP forecasts for 2012 have seen strong downward revisions.
During much of 2011, fuel prices had been stable, albeit painfully high but in the first
quarter of 2012 they saw a sharp climb, then a brief dip before returning to around
750 per tonne (see Figure 5). The weakness of the euro, in the first half of the year at
least, exacerbated the situation.
Load factors, on the other hand, continued to record levels (see Figure 6) while traffic
was weak, indicating that their increase was sufficient to absorb demand and thus
became part of air-carriers strategy to increase the profitability of flights in less
favourable economic environment as well as pushing flight growth down.
A number of airlines were also successful in increasing yields, by increasing prices or
by focusing on longer haul. So the summer profitability was better than it might have
been. This came too late, however, to save a number of airlines, including Malev and
Spanair. While some of the remaining airlines continue to expand, the main themes in
the news from airlines were cost-cutting, including cutting back of fleets, and
outsourcing of shorthaul operations.
Meanwhile the political situation in North Africa, particularly Egypt, remained unstable
which meant that the expected recovery was postponed and is likely to further be.
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Figure 5. Fuel Prices have remained high throughout 2012.
Figure 6. Load factors of European cross-border and international traffic have

reached record high values.
As a result of this economic context, traffic growth in 2012 was lower than what was
expected in STATFOR February 2012 forecast (see Figure 7). Total flights for the year
declined by 2.4% in Europe in 2012 compared to 2011 with the greater part of this
decline happening for intra-European flights, which decreased by 3.5% compared to
2011.
After a weak winter season in 2011-2012, even if the summer schedule showed some
signs of improvement, it was not sustained and the beginning of winter 2012-2013
showed far more rapid decline than in the same period in 2011 with an average decline
of 3.7% over Europe in November 2012 with the beginning of the Winter schedule
compared to the decline of 1% registered in November 2011.
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Figure 7. Actual traffic of 2012 compared with the forecast of February 2012.
For the busiest States in Europe, overall traffic declined in 2012 compared to 2011, as
shown in Figure 8:
French traffic decreased by 1.5% whereas it declined by 1.9% in Germany, by

2.3% in Italy, by 6.5% in Spain, and by 1.4% in the United Kingdom.
Except in France, traffic declined mainly on domestic flows, which contracted by
17.9% in Spain, 8.3% in Italy, 6.4% in Germany and by 3.1% in the UK. As
discussed, the immediate causes here included local airline restructuring (such
as airberlin in Germany and Iberia in Spain) and failures (eg. Spanair in Spain).
Overflights remained in decline, except in Italy where they grew by 1.5% as Italy
recovered traffic lost in 2011 due to events in North Africa.
Overall, the Summer period, mainly between June and August, had stronger
traffic than in the Winter. France and Italy were even briefly back to weak growth
over this period though not enough to prevent an overall decline in 2012.
Figure 8. Traffic losses have reduced over the summer for the main
contributors to European traffic.
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For other states, there were wide differences with only a few states whose traffic grew
in 2012. Such countries were mainly in the North and North-East of Europe, such as
Norway (+4.2%), Poland (+4.6%) and Ukraine (+2.9%), the latter two benefiting from
extra traffic for the Euro12 football championship. These three countries appear in the
list of the main contributors to add flights to the network in Figure 9 where Turkey
remained in 2012 the main contributor. However, it hardly added half the amount of
flights it did in 2011 and its overall growth of +2.6% was moderated by a decline of its
overflights by 2.7%. Norways contribution to traffic remained stable compared to 2011
thanks to being relatively insulated from economic issues in the Eurozone. Estonian
international departures grew strongly (+25%) in 2012, as overall traffic in Lithuania
and in Moldova did.
On the other side of Figure 9, Spain is the country that removed the most flights from
the network in 2012, followed by Italy, Germany and the UK as a consequence of the
weakness of their domestic traffic. Strong local traffic decline have also happen in
Hungary (-20%) because of the failure of its national carrier Malev. Airline restructuring,
often resulting in route cuts and frequency reductions on other routes, have also
generated strong declines in Finland (-9%) and in the Czech Republic (-11%).
More generally, flights in South-East European countries showed less growth than they
did in the past, as the region was often affected by weak domestic and international
traffic (arrivals and departures) associated with the weaker economic conditions. Such
declines were not always compensated by the growth of overflights, such as in the
case in Bulgaria, Romania and in the Czech Republic.
In the Balkans, overflights were often in decline or growing very weakly following route
changes of both:
traffic between Western Europe and Turkey or Middle East flying now further East
and North, increasing overflights in Romania in particular;
and traffic between Western Europe and South or East Africa that was flying over
the region in 2011 to avoid the Libyan exclusion area and is now back to its
previous routes more to the West, over Malta in particular whose overflights
strongly grew in 2012.
Figure 9. Turkey remains main contributor and fast grower and Poland and
Ukraine traffic was boosted by EURO2012.
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As shown in Figure 10, Russia has remained since the beginning of the year the
number one destination from Europe adding traffic to the network. However, its growth
has weakened compared to that of 2011: it has added around 100/120 flights/day in
both directions compared to a year ago, a figure that is 35% less than the 160/180
flights/day observed in the summer of 2011. Strong traffic growth from Russia towards
Western Europe and the Mediterranean (eg. to Spain +24%, to France +10.5%, to
Norway +29% and Greece +21%) as well as towards Tunisia, Egypt and the Middle
East has contributed to the growth of flights in Eastern European States. Together with
Turkey, Russia has taken nearly 20% of all aircraft deliveries in 2012 in Europe, a
figure that is expected to reach 30% in 2013 showing the potential for traffic growth
around these two countries. This effect will be the more noticeable since deliveries to
European carriers are reaching a cyclical low-point in 2013.
On the other hand of Figure 10, traffic to the United States has constantly declined
throughout the year to become since October the flow losing the most flights with
losses of around 45 flights/day compared to last year.
In Figure 10, we can also see that flights to Egypt have stopped recovering since
October and remain stable. They remain below 2010 levels that are now not expected
to be back before the return of a stable political situation in the country. Traffic to
Morocco remains declining although it tends to stabilise since the beginning of the
Winter Schedule.
Traffic to the United Arab Emirates has remained constantly growing by around 20
flights/day both ways despite the weaker economic context and traffic to Israel is now
back to growth since the summer after a weak winter 2011-2012 season.
Figure 10. Russia is the first non-European destination adding flights.
Figure 11 shows that all market segments started the year in decline. Since then, over
the whole 2012 year, the charter segment (non-scheduled) has grown by 2.8% in 2012
compared to last year as a consequence of the recovery to traffic to North Africa. Lowcost traffic also stands in 2012 on the positive side of the growth with 1.6% thanks in
particular to a strong summer that saw a growth of more than 5% in July and August.
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In Figure 12, we can also see that the market share of the low-cost segment grew by
1 percentage point in 2012 compared to 2011, a growth mainly taken from the
traditional segment. This change can be associated both to the failure of traditional
airlines (eg. Malev and Spanair) whose traffic has been partially taken over by low-cost
companies (eg. Wizzair for Spanair and Ryanair for Malev) and to the fact that some
traditional airlines have also opened low-cost subsidiaries like Iberia that created
Iberia-Express.
The other main segments, traditional, business aviation and all-cargo flights also saw
steady decline during the year of around 4%, in flights compared to 2011.
Figure 11. Low-cost is back to growth since this summer and Charter is
recovering from the Arab Spring.
Figure 12. Market share of the Low-Cost segment increased by 1 percentage

point in 2012.
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Figure 13 presents the monthly evolution of the total service units (TSU) recorded in
the member states of EUROCONTROL in 2012 (CRCO11) that is used as our
reference region.
In 2012, subject to the same difficult economic conditions as the flights, 121.6 million
service units (TSU) were produced. This was a drop of 1.3% compared to the peak
year of 2011; and only the second year of decline, the other being 2009. Overall TSU
declined to a lesser extent than flights resulting from increases in both average weight
and average distance flown..
It was the Summer that came nearest in 2012 to growing beyond 2011 values,
buoyed by stronger flights. TSU just reached levels of the peak 2011 numbers after
the 2009 dip. Lower growth rates were then again observed from the start of the
weaker winter schedule with TSU falling back to 2010 numbers.
Higher February growth rates can be explained by the 2012 leap year effect as TSU
are expressed in monthly totals.
Figure 13. Evolution of total service units recorded in CRCO11 area in 20092012.
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3. FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS

The main influencing factors for both flight and service unit forecasts are: cuts
in forecast economic growth (notably in 2013) followed by a weak recovery;
weak traffic since the beginning of the Winter schedule; airline weakness
struggling to finance their operations and keep them profitable, including fleet
reductions. These and other factors have been built into the set of scenario
assumptions (see Annex C) used for the flight forecast.
Figure 14. EU GDP forecasts have seen strong downward revisions for 2013.
Source : Oxford Economics
Firstly GDP forecasts: We continue to see cuts in forecasts of economic growth, for
2013 and also for 2014. According to Oxford Economics, European real GDP will
grow by 0.1% in 2013 (a 1.5 percentage point downward revision on the GDP
forecast dated January 2012 as shown in Figure 14). More importantly, the updated
economic forecast shows also a downward revision in the medium-term (see Figure
15): the GDP growth trend is now cut by 0.6 percentage point (pp) compared to what
was expected in September 2012. More details on this are provided in Annex C.1.
As far as the recent traffic growth is concerned, after a reduction in traffic losses in
the Summer, notably for busiest States, as shown in Figure 7, traffic is now
decreasing again by amounts lower than the nadir observed in the winter last year.
Consequently, this will influence the traffic forecast downwards, which is confirmed by
the 3 to 4% decline showed in the current outlook of the airline schedules until the
end of March 2013.
The trend is also to weakness of national airlines that have announced fleet
reductions in 2013 such as in Spain and the Canary Islands but also in Poland,
Germany and the United Kingdom, which are likely to impact traffic downwards: this
has been considered (see Annex C.2). In 2012, around 10 European airlines have
ceased to exist including one national carrier, sometimes generating significant gaps
in the traffic of the country where they were based, often at a domestic level and
international level. Considering the current weak economy it is not impossible that
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similar situations occur in 2013 even if they are hard to forecast precisely and if airline
extensive restructuring and cost-cutting plans to raise their profitability might mitigate
this risk.
Figure 15. Since the last forecast, the economic growth outlook for EU27 has
been revised downwards and remains lower in the later years by 0.6 pp.
In addition to these changes, traffic to North Africa and in particular to Egypt remains
weak and is likely to stay so as long as political instability remains in the area. As a
consequence, we are no longer including in our assumptions a return to 2010 levels,
as it was the case in the two releases of the seven-year flight forecast published in
2012. This slow recovery had generated in particular in 2012 lower overflights than
forecasted, mainly around the Adriatic coast and over Turkey.
Other inputs include:
Low-cost: For this flight forecast we have reviewed the assumptions about lowcost market share growth to take into account the fact that its market share has
grown more strongly this year than in the recent past. The impact has in
particular affected the forecast for countries like Hungary and Spain where
some slots of a traditional airline have been taken over by low-cost companies.
It has also had an impact upwards on some Eastern-European and NorthernEuropean countries where low-cost companies have recently entered the airline
market.
Load Factors: The forecast projects these to increase further. We have
nonetheless increased now the extent to which they are likely to grow in view of
the recent trend of airlines to increase them to their practical maximum.
Compared to previous forecasts, we have also considered that high load factors
were rather a contributing factor to low flight growth instead of a contributing
factor to high growth as it was considered previously: recent increase of load
factors has shown that they could still grow and were sufficient to absorb flight
demand. As a consequence of this change, this has now increased the range of
the flight forecast in line with the increased uncertainty surrounding the current
economic context.
High-Speed train: High-speed train developments have been reviewed and
updated. However, if some plans have not been affected by the current
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economic downturn, plans to develop high-speed train in Portugal have been

stopped and are now no longer included into our inputs.
Airport Capacity: These numbers have been refreshed based on inputs from
the Challenges of Growth 2013 study, via a EUROCONTROL project called the
Airport Corner that collects directly from airports information about their future
development and capacity plans. Not as many airports contributed to this data
collection compared to 2012.
Events and Trends: We have assumed scenarios to forecast the impact on airtraffic growth in Croatia and Iceland when they join the EU. As fleet reductions
have been considered, for balance, information about fleet increase in Turkey
has also been taken into account in a similar way to get closer to the reality of
flight growth there, far stronger than the economic growth would just suggest.
Emissions trading: The aviation industry has joined the EU ETS in 2012.
However, the scope of its application has been reduced to intra European
flights, reducing its impact. Considering the uncertainty around its scope of
application in the medium-term, and the fact that carbon prices are now very low
(around 5 euros/tonne, see Ref. 5), we have estimated that its impact on flight
demand would not be significant for this forecast. This component has thus
been de-activated.
More information about these inputs and assumptions can be found in Annex C.
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4. GROWTH IN IFR FLIGHTS TO 2019

The weakness of the economic situation in Europe and the financial difficulties
of the air traffic industry are reflected with the new forecast that is for 11.2
million IFR movements (1 million) in Europe in 2019, 17% more than in 2012.
The first year of the forecast expects a flight decline of 1.3%. However,
considering the uncertainty around the European economy, we also draw
attention to the low forecast which has a decline of 2.9% in 2013.
In the following years, growth is expected to be back at around 3% per year.
The 2008 peak of traffic of 10.1 million flights is now expected to be passed
only in 2016, thus a year later than expected in the September 2012 forecast,
when traffic reaches 10.3 million flights ( 0.6 million).
Figure 16. Summary of forecast for Europe.
ESRA08
2009
IFR Flight Movements
(Thousands)
Annual Growth
(compared to
previous year)
4.1
2010
2012
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2013
2014
9,559
9,924 10,358 10,835 11,222 11,658 12,079
3.4%
9,493 9,784 9,548
9,424
9,689
9,975 10,298 10,576 10,885 11,195
2.3%
2011
AAGR
2019/
2012
9,413
9,276
9,409
9,517
9,690
9,815
9,969 10,132
0.9%
0.1%
3.8%
4.4%
4.6%
3.6%
3.9%
3.6%
3.4%
-6.6%
0.8%
3.1% -2.4%
-1.3%
2.8%
3.0%
3.2%
2.7%
2.9%
2.8%
2.3%
-2.9%
1.4%
1.2%
1.8%
1.3%
1.6%
1.6%
0.9%
Short-term outlook (2013 & 2014)

In the short-term, following a 0.5% cut in economic growth for 2013 and the recent
weak traffic trends since the beginning of the Winter schedule, the 2013 forecast has
been revised downwards compared to the September 2012 forecast by 1.3
percentage points to -1.3% (see Figure 17). This revision adds to the low outturn in
2012 that saw traffic decline by 2.4% below 2011 traffic levels and thus now places
2013 traffic hardly above the minimum of traffic observed in 2009.
This forecast is provided with a low scenario expecting a 2.9% decline in traffic that
must be taken seriously considering the current uncertainty surrounding the economy
of the Eurozone and the possibility that other airlines fail. The forecast also includes a
high growth scenario that just scrapes a 0.1% increase in traffic: such an outcome
could be possible only if traffic trends were to improve significantly during the summer
and were maintained with the beginning of next Winter schedule.
In regional terms, there is still declining traffic expected for 2013 in the ESRA
Mediterranean region (Spain, Canary Islands, Italy, Portugal and Greece
arrivals/departures and internals all declining). The climate for leisure travel in these
States remains soft. There are however two exceptions in the region that are still
expected to see their traffic grow in 2013.
The first exception is Turkey whose traffic is expected to grow by +9.8% in 2013
notably thanks to its strong domestic traffic growth but also to the traffic from/to
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Middle East, North Africa and Russia. The forecast of its domestic traffic and
international arrivals/departures is also expected to be boosted as a consequence of
its fleet expansion and this explains why, amongst all the other states in the region, it
is one of the few forecasts that have been revised upwards. Growth of turkish traffic,
of course, through network effects also increases traffic particularly in neighbouring
States.
Malta is also expected to grow by +8.4% in 2013 but this will be more linked to the
growth of its overflights that should still catch up during the first few months of the
year from the losses linked to the Libyan exclusion area that was still active at the
beginning of 2012. Since the re-opening of the Libyan airspace, Maltese overflights
have grown more strongly than expected figures and the forecast has also been
consequently revised upwards. Nevertheless, after the strong disruption in 2011 and
with the situation in North Africa remaining changeable, the traffic outlook remains
particularly uncertain for Malta.
In the ESRA North West region, mainly as a consequence of significant downward
revisions of the GDP forecast of most states there, all forecasts have been revised
downwards compared to the September 2012 forecast. All countries are now
expected to see their traffic decline, except Norway whose forecast has nonetheless
been revised downwards but should see its traffic grow by 0.8% in 2013 (instead of
+1.6% expected in the September 2012 forecast). The traffic growths in other
countries of the ESRA North West region have all been revised downwards by at
least 1 percentage point with extreme revisions in Finland (from +0.5% in the
September 2012 forecast to -4.7% expected in 2013, in part because of weak
domestic and international traffic departing of landing in Finland), Switzerland (from
+2.1% to -2.5% in 2013) and in Austria (-3.3% from +1.4% to a -1.9% expected in
2013).
If most revisions are a consequence of significant downward updates of the GDP
forecast, the situation is slightly different for Switzerland and Austria whose GDP
forecasts have not been revised significantly but whose recent traffic trends have
been much lower than expected in the September 2012 forecast, in particular since
the beginning of the Winter schedule. Part of this trend is linked to airline restructuring
that has already and will further cut traffic on routes around the area. For example,
Austrian overflights have been affected by a reduction of flights leaving or departing
from Germany. As for Switzerland, the lower traffic trends might also be linked to the
relatively high unit rate of the country compared to the other states in the area.
The forecasts in France (-1.6%) and Germany (-1.7%) have both been reduced by 2
percentage points whereas the UK forecast (-1.4%) has been revised downwards by
1 percentage point.
Most of the forecasts for ESRA Eastern States have been revised downwards.
Reduced levels of arrival/departure traffic after airline failures and restructuring
(Czech Republic and Hungary) have impacted the traffic trends downwards. Many
economies are also weak in the area, which has generated traffic decline for arrivals
and departures in many cases (eg. Bulgaria and Romania). These trends have
consequently led to a revision downwards of the forecast. Nevertheless, overflights
are still expected to grow in the area and this growth will compensate for the loss of
local traffic.
Poland and Ukraine are also expected to see lower growth in 2013 than expected in
September 2012. In part, this is the counter effect of the boost in traffic they had in
2012 because of the EURO2012, but the traffic is also expected to be reduced as a
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consequence of weaknesses of local airlines: LOT Polish Airlines is expected to

reduce by about a third its fleet in 2013, and Aerosvit has ceased its operations in
Ukraine, at least for the moment. These two companies had a significant market
share in 2012 (around 20% of international arrivals/departures) and the amount of
their consequent traffic cuts is expected to be significant. This has been considered in
the assumptions of the forecast (see Annex C.2).
Northern Adriatic States are expected to see almost no additional traffic in 2013
compared to 2012, in their most important flow which is overflights. The forecasts
there have been revised downwards mostly as part of the slower-than-expected traffic
recovery from North Africa 2011 disruptions. The forecast no longer includes any
bounce back from these disruptions, just organic growth.
Estonian traffic has been significantly revised downwards after a strong growth in
2012 mainly linked to its international departures that have grown by 25%. These are
now expected to significantly decline as the national airline plans to cut half of its
fleet, which will also impact the overall forecast.
Figure 17. States forecast detail for 2013.
With a 1.6% growth in GDP expected in 2014 (see Section 3), Figure 18 shows that
year 2014 is expected to see traffic growth back (+2.8%, with a range between +1.4%
and +3.8%). This is equivalent in terms of growth to what was expected in the
September 2012 forecast (+0.1 pp), except that the lower traffic expected in 2013 will
generate consequently lower traffic levels than in the previous forecast.
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Figure 18. States forecast detail for 2014.
Morocco
3.2%
4.2
Medium-term outlook (up to 2019)

After 2014, the traffic growth in Europe stabilises at around a 2.9% increase per year
slowing somewhat from 2017 mainly as the airport capacity constraints become an
issue (see Section 4.4). In 2019, traffic is expected to reach 11.2 million IFR
movements ( 1 million flights). The 2008 peak of traffic of 10.1 million flights is now
expected to be passed only in 2016, thus a year later than expected in the September
2012 forecast, when traffic reaches 10.3 million flights ( 0.6 million). As Figure 22
shows, flight growth is expected to remain well below the pre-2009 long-term trend
and is expected to remain below that trend. There are upside and downside risks to
this forecast which are detailed in Section 6.
As Figure 19 and Figure 20 show, the growth is not uniform across Europe. While the
growth in percentage terms is clearly stronger in the East (more growth potential than
in the more mature Western markets), the busiest Western States (eg. Germany, UK)
will see the highest number of additional movements between now and 2019 as well
as Turkey (Figure 19). Turkey will remain the fastest grower and main contributor to
European traffic growth with turkish internals, in particular, being the flow adding the
most flights over the next 7 years (see Figure 21). Flows from Turkey towards Russia,
Germany, the Middle-East and Asia-Pacific are also expected to stand amongst the
fastest growing in Europe.
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Figure 19. Average Annual Growth per State, 2019 v 2012.
Figure 23 shows the corresponding Figure 19 at functional airspace block (FAB) level.
The Danube FAB is expected to have the highest average annual growth rate
(+4.7%) followed by the Baltic FAB (+3.5%) over the next 7 years. FABEC (the
busiest European FAB with more than 15,000 flights per day in 2012), will experience
more limited average annual growth rate of around 1.8%. In terms of additional traffic,
FABEC is likely to add around 13% more flights in 2019 than in 2012, corresponding
to around 2,000 more flights per day on average. Danube FAB is expected to bring
nearly 38% more flights in 2019 than in 2012, adding some 770 flights a day. SouthWest FAB traffic growth is expected to remain the weakest of the FAB (+1.5%) over
the 7 years (adding around 500 flights per day, on average). However this forecast
has been revised upwards by nearly 1% because of a stronger economic forecast for
Spain (eg. increased by 0.7 percentage point in 2013). NEFABs average annual
growth rate between 2012 and 2019 is around 1.8% per year on average,
corresponding to around 350 flights per day, a revision downwards in particular linked
to weaker growth perspective in Finland.
Annex E gives the details of forecast traffic and growth per State and areas and
illustrates the imbalance in growth.
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Figure 20. Number of additional movements per day for each state (2019 v
2012).
Figure 21. Flows adding the most movements, 2019 v 2012.
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Figure 22. IFR flight growth in Europe will stay persistently below pre-2009
long-term trend.
30%
15
Long-Term Trend
Before 2009
10
1960-2012 historical figures

2013-2019 forecast
25%
20%
Actual
Traffic
Forecast
Traffic
Long-Term
Average
Growth
15%
10%
5%
0%
Annual
Growth
-5%
1960
-5
1965
1970
1975 1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010 2015
2020
EUROCONTROL 2013. w w w .eurocontrol.int/statfor
-10%
Figure 23. Average annual growth rates for FABs, 2019 v 2012.
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Page 19
Annual Growth
Flights in Europe (Million)
IFR traffic in Europe
4.3
Comparison with previous forecast

Figure 24 illustrates that the current forecast (MTF13) for total Europe starts lower
than the low scenario of the seven-year forecast released in September 2012
(MTF12b). Over the first two years, the current base scenario (dark blue solid line) is
now following the low scenario issued in September (light blue dashed line). Indeed,
following the deterioration of the economic outlook in 2013, the flight forecast is now
much lower for next year. With a further flight decline expected in 2013 and
comparable rates of growth in later years the forecast now expects for 2019 only a
slightly higher forecast than the one for 2018 in MTF12b. In 2018, the forecast is
expected to be lower in MTF13 by 2.3%. We have thus nearly lost a year of traffic.
Figure 24. For Europe, current forecast stands below the low-scenario of the
MTF12b in 2013 and will remain lower than the previous baseline.
Figure 25 depicts the size of the revisions in this forecast compared to the September
2012 forecast for total traffic per State in 2018, the last common year of these two
forecasts. Most of the forecast have been revised downwards except for Turkey and
Hungary. In the short-term, Maltese and Azerbaijan traffic have also been revised
upwards thanks to stronger recent traffic trends but this will not last after 2016 as their
economic growths have both been revised downwards.
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Figure 25. Forecast revision for 2018 per State (Source: EUROCONTROL).
4.4
Airport Constraints
Constraints at airports mean that demand for some 135,000 flights cannot be
accommodated by 2019, which means a 1.2% reduction in growth over 20122019. Just as traffic has been postponed by a year, the levels of
unaccommodated demand have also been postponed by year. The location of
the constrained airports sometimes also differs, as the set of airports with
future capacity limits has been fully revisited for the Challenges of Growth 2013
study.
This forecast uses a fully refreshed set of airport capacity figures covering some 105
airports, building on:
The systematic work done for the update of the Challenges of Growth 2013
study (Ref. 6), that is to say using a homogeneous source of data compiled by
the EUROCONTROL Airport unit from submissions from around 70 airports.
The additional data received from STATFOR User Group members, especially
the Navigation Service Providers who helped completing the above mentioned
sample when the data was missing.
In the baseline scenario in 2019, demand for around 135,500 departures will not be
accommodated due to airport congestion (Figure 26, mainly in Norway, UK, France,
Switzerland and Germany). This will reduce the growth in departures by 1.2% across
Europe as a whole between 2012 and 2019. The reduction in growth will, of course,
be more marked in the States with congested airports, and is more significant in the
high-growth scenario.
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Compared to last year, there has been both a temporal and a geographical shift
location of the most constrained airports. Firstly, in the current forecast release, the
airports in Europe will see an unaccommodated demand of around 50,000 departures
from 2017 whereas it was previously forecast between 2 and 3 years earlier in last
years release.
Overall, a lower traffic forecast, and a complete revision of the capacity figures lead to
a number of unaccommodated flights lower than the one in the previous seven-year
forecast (excess demand of around 134,000 departures in 2018 in MTF12, see Ref. 7
compared to 88,000 in this forecast).
Figure 26. Impact of airport constraints.
Unit: Reduction in IFR Departures when airport constraints are taken into account
Change in IFR Departures (000s)
2013 2014 2015
2017
2018
2019
87.4 101.9 166.8 253.1 372.5 0.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% 1.4% 2.1%
3.0%
87.9 135.5 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.8%
1.2%
18.8
0.3%
High
3.9
32.3
Base
0.6
6.9
21.0
36.2
57.7
0.8
8.2
Low
4.5
2016
2018
Percentage Change
2019
2013
31.1
2014
2015
2016
2017
. 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
High-Speed Train
Expansion of the high-speed train network reduces flight growth by just 0.4%
over 7 years, though the local effects are more significant. In flight terms, this
is a slightly smaller impact than in the previous forecast over the whole
horizon.
In the forecast model, an improvement in travel times for rail leads to a reduction in
demand for air travel. Figure 27 summarises the number of IFR departures that are
lost to rail because of improvements in the high speed train (HST) network. The effect
is around 0.4% in total over the 7 years of the forecast; which is small on the scale of
the network as a whole. However, on specific city-pairs, the effect can be quite large,
especially at the end of the horizon. A good part of the HST projects have been
delayed (postponed from 1 to 5 years and even not in the scope of this forecast
anymore), not only due to the economic crisis but for some of them, because of
environmental and political issues. Some others have been cancelled (eg. the Lisbon
to Madrid link withdrawn in 2012). For these reasons and owing to the lower levels of
traffic, the current reduction in traffic is smaller than in the MTF12 results (see Ref. 7)
in which around 47,000 IFR departures were assessed to be removed in 2018 from
the network. It is now expected that a reduction of 34,600 IFR departures only will
happen in 2018. The HST network is assumed to grow more slowly in the high flightgrowth scenario, hence lower values for the High in the Figure 27.
As far as States are concerned, Germany and Turkey will see the largest impacts in
terms of departures: reduction of nearly 14,000 and 25,000 IFR departures
respectively in 2019 which correspond to around 1% and almost 3% of traffic
(respectively) in the States. The effects are mainly due to the Nrnberg-Berlin and
Frankfurt-Stuttgart lines in Germany and Istanbul-Ankara-Sivas and Istanbul-Konya
for Turkey. France and Netherlands are less affected with around 4,000 fewer IFR
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departures (each). Spain, where some of the projects have been affected by serious
delays or even cancelled sees now a reduction of 0.3% of its IFR departures by 2018
due to HST where the latter was estimated to remove around 2.2% in the MTF12
results (same year of comparison).
Figure 27. Impact of high-speed train: reduction in IFR departures for ESRA08
(top) and most affected States (bottom).
Unit: Reduction in IFR Departures when airport High-Speed train network development in Europe is
taken into account
Percentage Change
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
High
0.9
2.7
10.7
22.0
19.1
29.7
. 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2%
0.2%
Base
2.4
6.1
10.0
23.1
28.9
34.6
44.9 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.3%
0.4%
Low
2.4
5.9
13.5
22.5
28.2
42.9
54.7 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.3% 0.4%
0.5%
Percentage Change
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
3.7 0.1% 0.2%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
. 0.0%
0.0%
0.1%
0.2%
0.6%
1.1%
0.9
2.4
0.2
2.2
4.4
3.0
0.1
0.1
0.6
2.0
7.7
0.9
2.0
2.0
2.8
3.6
3.6
3.7 0.3% 0.7%
0.7%
1.0%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
0.3
1.6
2.7
2.6
2.2
2.1
. 0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.3
. 0.1% 0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Turkey
6.1
13.7
15.4
20.2
24.9
0.9%
1.9%
1.9%
2.4%
2.7%
UK
0.5
0.9
0.7
0.7
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
Base France
Germany
Netherlands
Spain
Switzerland
13.8
Released Issue
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5.
SERVICE UNITS GROWTH TO 2019

Airlines, confronted with persistent high oil prices and a weaker economic
outlook (notably in 2013), are reducing flight frequencies, fleets and cutting
unprofitable routes. In particular this has led to weaker traffic since the
beginning of the winter schedule. TSU are linked to the evolution of flights and
overflights. So, just as the flight forecast has been revised downwards in the
short term, the forecast for 2013 TSU is also revised downwards by 1.5
percentage points to now remain almost unchanged with a slight decline by
0.1% and reach around 121.5 million. Some of the current downward risks, due
to economic uncertainty are captured in the low-growth scenario, involving a
1.7% fall in TSU in 2013.
From 2014, TSU growth is expected to return but slower than the pre-2008
average growth rates: it should average 2.8% per year for the whole 2012-19
period. The low-growth scenario, capturing economic uncertainty and other
down-side risks foresees an average growth rate of 1.3% per year for 2012 to
2019.
5.1 Short-term outlook (2013 & 2014)

Actual 2012 en-route service units ended lower than expected. In 2012, 121.6 million
service units (TSU) were produced. This represents a drop of 1.3% compared to
2011, a second decline since the 2009 dip after growth figures of about 3.5% and 5%
for 2010 and 2011. TSU growth continues to follow flight growth, though in a lesser
extent as average weight and distance factors increase.
These lower actuals combined with the downwards-revised 2013 flight forecast
(Section 4.1 1 ), TSU growth is revised again downwards by 1.5 percentage points to
now remain almost unchanged with a slight decline by 0.1% and reach around 121.5
million. The September 2012 forecasts of 124.4 million TSU had already been revised
downwards (by 2.3%) compared to the 125.6 million units, published in May 2012.
Figure 55 presents the 2013 and 2014 total service units forecast per State prepared
by STATFOR on behalf of CRCO at the end of February 2013.
Not all countries are expected to see a decline in their TSU. The gap between
Western and Eastern European countries is clearly visible in Figure 30. On one side
France, Germany, Italy and Spain and the majority of the Western European
countries show decreasing TSU, compared to weak yet positive forecasts in
September. On the other side we see the Eastern European countries and Norway
with downward revisions yet still with limited growth. The major upward revision is for
Turkey, seeing its TSU growth rate revised from 3.1% to 7.7% as a result of upward
revision of the flight forecast.
The total en-route service units in the EUROCONTROL member states (CRCO11)
are expected to grow by 3.4% in 2014 compared to 2013 and reach 125.7 million.
This is an upward revision compared to the 3.0% growth and 128.3 million units,
published in September 2012. This change is consistent with the flight forecast
(upward revision from +2.7% to 2.8%). After 2014, flight and thus service units
1
from 0.0% to -1.3% for flights in the ESRA08
Page 24
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growths are then expected to return, but slower than the pre-2008 average growth
rates.
Estimates of chargeable service units per State in 2013 and 2014, based on
EUROCONTROL TSU forecasts and numbers of exempted service units in 2012, are
presented in Figure 56. The chargeable service units in CRCO11 in 2013 and 2014
are estimated to amount to 120.0 million and 124.1 million respectively (based on
2012 relationship between total and chargeable service units and calculated on the
baseline scenario).
5.2
Medium-term outlook (2015 to 2019)

The medium-term forecast has been fully updated and the horizon has been
extended by an additional year 2019, to bring it in line with the seven year horizon of
the flight forecast.
Flight growth stabilises at around a 2.9% increase per year slowing as of 2017 as the
airport capacity constraints become an issue (see Section 4.4).
Based on these lower TSU numbers for 2013 and a revised medium-term flight
forecast, the TSU are expected to be about 22% higher in 2019 than in 2012,
reaching in total around 147.7 million, representing a baseline scenario average
growth of 2.8% per year, implying an annual growth of 3.3% as of 2014
onwards.
Figure 29 compares the evolution of the forecast between the September 2012
forecast (Ref. 2) and this new forecast release for the CRCO11 grouping. The TSU
forecast has been adapted downwards, resulting in lower 2017 TSU 138.6 million
compared to the previously forecasted 141.9 million TSU in 2017 (decline of -2.3%).
Any user of this seven-year forecast is reminded to consult the entire forecast range
(low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes downside
risks (eg. the economic indicators could further worsen) and upside risks (eg. high
load factors could trigger higher traffic numbers sooner-as-expected). These are
discussed later in Section 6.
In particular, while some of the risks to the Eurozone have diminished it is clear that a
number of significant problems remain. The low growth scenario is designed to
capture some of these downside risks. Without going to the extent of modelling a
partial breakup of the Euro, if the economic recovery is delayed yet again, then a
much slower growth rate, such as that in the low growth scenario is possible.
For the TSU, by 2019, the high-growth scenario has 12.6 million more and low-growth
scenario has 14.3 million fewer TSU than the base scenario (+10% and -12% in terms
of growth respectively).
The average annual growth figures per State can be found in Figure 58. The detailed
forecasts for each State are in Annex G.
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Page 25
Figure 28: Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe.
2008
Total service units H
(thousands)
B
CRCO11*
L
Total service units H
(thousands)
B
PScheme **
L
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2019/
2012
Growth
123,438 129,108
135,243 142,077 147,783 154,155 160,305
32%
119,521 113,434 117,393 123,211 121,589 121,527 125,682
129,834 134,498 138,595 143,178 147,733
22%
119,576 122,018
123,888 126,531 128,540 130,960 133,479
10%
104,347 108,581
113,382 118,812 123,221 128,091 132,688
28%
98,057 100,579 105,126 103,572 102,768 105,722
108,934 112,558 115,644 119,120 122,526
18%
101,153 102,659
103,971 105,942 107,330 109,063 110,864
7%
104,941
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2019/
2012
AAGR
1.5%
4.6%
4.8%
5.1%
4.0%
4.3%
4.0%
4.0%
-0.1%
3.4%
3.3%
3.6%
3.0%
3.3%
3.2%
2.8%
-1.7%
2.0%
1.5%
2.1%
1.6%
1.9%
1.9%
1.3%
Annual growth
0.7%
4.1%
4.4%
4.8%
3.7%
4.0%
3.6%
3.6%
PScheme
-0.8%
2.9%
3.0%
3.3%
2.7%
3.0%
2.9%
2.4%
-2.3%
1.5%
1.3%
1.9%
1.3%
1.6%
1.7%
1.0%
Annual growth
CRCO11
H
B
6.1%
5.3%
-5.1%
-6.6%
3.5%
2.6%
5.0%
4.5%
-1.3%
-1.5%
* CRCO11 designates the sum over all the states participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2012 of all TSU
either measured or forecasted for the corresponding year.
** PScheme stands for the sum over all the 29 states that are currently involved in the EU-wide performance target setting (27
EU member states plus Norway and Switzerland)
Figure 29: Comparison 2012-2017 of the forecast between the current forecast
and September 2012 for CRCO11 Area.
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Figure 30. Average annual growth of service units between 2012 and 2019
Average Annual Growth Rates 2019 v 2012
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Page 27
6. RISK TO THE FORECAST GROWTH

Users of the forecasts are strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to
high-growth) as an indicator of risk. These flight and service units forecasts are
prepared in the conditions of unstable economic situation with serious risk of further
aggravation and downside effects on traffic development.
The main sources of uncertainty in the forecast are:
Page 28
The economic forecasts (Annex C.1) used here were updated in January 2013.
The economic outlook remains uncertain and the return to growth has been
delayed. Experience of recent years suggests that we could still see further
downward revisions in growth, and further delay of the recovery. The low
scenario provides some guidance here.
Despite actions to ensure the stability of the Eurozone banking system, the
potential for some States to leave the Euro has not gone completely. Even a
partial eurozone break-up has the potential to take traffic below the low forecast.
Along with the actual uncertainty in economic growth, severe cuts in spending and
tax hikes have been put in place by European States to balance their budgets (eg.
Spain, France). Such state control measures might lead to industrial unrest. The
same applies for the private sector where air industry operators might have to
handle protest from the workforce against saving plans (day-to-day flight
disruption). These represent a downside risk for future traffic development as
presented in this report.
Load factors remain at or near record highs. When traffic begins to grow again,
this means that load factors will be able to absorb less of the passenger growth
than they have in past years. The forecast includes assumptions about the future
development of load factors, but from the present position, the eventual recovery
could come more rapidly than anticipated.
Network changes and the route choice of airlines have a large influence on the
number of overflights. The events of 2011 in North Africa have had an important
impact on overflights particularly for Italy and Malta. There remains the possibility
of additional network disruption, for example around Syria.
More generally, future network changes (eg. new routes) are not modeled by the
forecast. The possible opening of Kosovo airspace is an up-side risk for some
States, but a downside risk for others.
Tourism trends are quite variable. The medium-term forecast aims to be
accurate over the seven-year period, rather than identifying which will be the new
holiday destination of preference in a given year. The recent political instability in
both Egypt and Tunisia has led to more variability in tourism destinations.
Oil prices remain changeable with oil being increasingly an item of speculation
and investment. With fuel accounting for 25-35% or even more of costs of the
airlines, this can have an effect on fares and cost of travel for customer.
Participation of aviation in the Emission Trading Scheme, currently under
intense debate, was not integrated into this forecast. However, such regulatory
measures (eg. new tax regimes or further environmental limits) contribute to the
uncertainty of air transport growth, can be introduced rapidly and change the local
outlook for flight growth.
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Terrorist attacks, wars and natural disasters. The last seven years have not
been quiet ones for aviation. There is no reason to believe the next seven years
will be uneventful, with the effects of a further volcano eruption or an H1N1 flu
pandemic being some of the risks. The impact on air traffic could be a temporary
one, or more significant.
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Page 29
7. GLOSSARY
AAGR
ACC
AEA
B
CFMU
CRCO11
ESRA
ETS
EU27
FAB
FIR
GDP
H
ICAO
IFR
L
MTF
MTF12
MTF13
MTF12b
MTOW
OE
pp
PScheme
SES
SID
STATFOR
STF
TR
TSU
TZ
UIR
Average annual growth

Area Control Centre
Association of European Airlines
(in tables) Baseline Scenario
Central Flow Management Unit 2
Current states participating to the Multilateral Route Charges System
Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area (see Annex B.1)
Emission Trading Scheme
European Union (27 States)
Functional Airspace Block
Flight Information Region
Gross Domestic Product
(in tables) High-Growth Scenario
International Civil Aviation Organisation
Instrument Flight Rules
(in tables) Low-Growth Scenario
Medium-Term Forecast
February 2012 publication of the MTF
February 2013 publication of the MTF
September 2012 publication of the MTF
Maximum Take-Off Weight
Oxford Economics Ltd
percentage point
States involved in the Performance scheme first period of reference
(EU27, Norway and Switzerland)
Single European Sky
STATFOR Interactive Dashboard
Eurocontrol Statistics and Forecast Service
Short-Term Forecast
Traffic Region (a grouping of TZs)
Total Service Units
Traffic Zone (State, except for Spain, Portugal, Belgium and
Luxembourg, Serbia and Montenegro)
Upper Flight Information Region
Detailed explanations of the above terms are available in EUROCONTROL Glossary

for Flight Statistics & Forecasts (Ref. 8).
Now Directorate Network Management but still referred to as CFMU for traffic data.
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ANNEX A.
FORECAST METHODS
A.1 Flight Forecast

The forecast reported here combines the EUROCONTROL Short- and MediumTerm Forecast methods. The short-term forecast is strongly influenced by
analysis of recent trends. The medium-term forecast takes into account a
broader range of economic and industry developments.
Short-Term Forecast Method: The short-term forecast focuses on time-series
modeling of traffic trends month-by-month. The final result is in terms of numbers of
flights per month per pair of zones or regions: within Europe origin-destination zones
are used (groups of airports often smaller than States); outside of Europe, large
regions are used (groups of States). Four separate forecasts (with differing horizons
and time and geographical resolution) contribute to the forecast as a whole (see
Figure 31):
The State-flow method forecasts each State separately, and within the State,
separate forecasts for a few main flows: internals, overflights and
arrivals/departures.
The zone or region-pair forecast is largely based on time-series methods for

some 9000 series.
The schedule method uses data from published schedules for future months, and
comparisons of previous schedules with actual flights.
The first years of the medium-term forecast (see below) also contribute to the
final view of future traffic for the first two years.
The combined forecast is then capped by airport capacities, using the same method
as used in the medium- and long-term forecasts. The result is then integrated into the
medium-term forecast, as described in the next section.
Figure 31. Summary of short-term forecast method.

Short-term Forecast
Medium-Term Forecast
(Parts of method only)
Supporting Data:
-Events
-Calendars
Historical Archive:
Monthly Airport-Pair Data
State-Flow
Forecast Method
Historical Archive:
Published Schedule
Zone/Region-Pair
Forecast Method
Initial Airport-Pair
Forecast
Schedule
Forecast Method
Combine
Aligned Airport-Pair
Forecast
Apply annual
capacities
Final Airport-Pair
Forecast
Forecast
Overflights
Final
Forecast
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Page 31
Medium-Term Forecast Method

STATFOR produces medium-term (seven years ahead) forecasts of annual numbers
of IFR flight movements for volumes of airspace called traffic zones. Traffic zones
are typically States, but Spain and Portugal are split into two, and Belgium &
Luxembourg and Serbia & Montenegro are combined. Larger aggregate regions,
such as the 27 EU States, are also included. For each traffic zone, forecasts are
published for the main region-to-region flows (Annex B.2 defines these traffic regions)
on the STATFOR Interactive Dashboard (Ref. 9). Traffic flows are also categorised
as internals (within the traffic zone), arrival in or departure from the traffic zone, and
overflights (neither departing from nor landing in the traffic zone, but passing through
its airspace).
The forecast is published annually, at the beginning of the year and refreshed
mid-year to support the capacity planning process. Key features of the method are:
Development of a core, airport-pair forecast which, at each update of the

medium-term forecast, is shared by medium- and short-term forecasts;
The demand-side model focuses on economic growth and its influence on

demand from travellers and shippers;
A supply-side model is used to forecast growth directly on airport pairs, and

replaces the traditional demand-side model when appropriate;
Specific models for some market segments, such as business aviation and a
low-cost effect;
The forecast is constrained by annual airport capacity.
The overflights are calculated using the airport-to-airport routing in the

baseline year, plus more recent trends captured by the short-term forecast
method.
The forecast method is continuously being refined to improve the quality of the
outputs. For this forecast, the emissions trading scheme is integrated into the
forecasting process, and the supply-side modeling has been adapted to handle better
the recent cases of decline over several years for some flows. The forecast process is
summarised in Figure 32.
The review body for STATFOR is the STATFOR User Group. This has members from
civil aviation authorities and air navigation service providers, and from other industry
organisations. Participants are typically actively involved in statistics or forecasting.
The STATFOR User Group meets once or twice per year. It reviews the inputs to the
medium-term forecast and the resulting draft forecast. The aim of the review process
is to produce a forecast which is consistent on a European level and acceptable to
member States. This does not necessarily mean the forecast is the same as that
produced nationally.
The forecast is built from three main datasets.
Page 32
A historical database of the STATFOR monthly statistics (derived from CRCO,

Network Manager and National sources) for the last ten or more years at
airport-pair level;
A baseline from Network Manager and National sources that includes routing
information;
The set of scenario inputs.
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Figure 32. Preparation process of the Medium-Term Forecast.
The Medium-Term Forecast uses three scenarios which differ in terms of the
assumptions. The low-growth and high-growth scenarios between them capture the
most-likely range of future growth in flight movements; the baseline scenario indicates
a likely position within this range. The main parts of the scenario data are:
Economic growth, summarised as GDP growth forecasts in real prices in local

currency; (Annex C.1)
Network change, a percentage adjustment to arrival and departure

movements per traffic zone, which can be used - given supporting data - to
represent in the model the effects of consolidation, irregularities in the
baseline, or local one-off effects; (Annex C.2)
Low-cost growth, which adds additional flight movements, on top of economic

growth to reflect new flight movements generated by low-cost airlines; (Annex
C.3)
Load factors, which are assumed to change linearly from a current level to a
future level that can vary with region and scenario; (Annex C.4)
High-speed train network, summarised as changes in rail travel time on city

pairs served by high-speed links, compared to the baseline year; (Annex C.5)
Airport capacity, in movements per year for major airports; (Annex C.6)
Demographic change, which has a very small impact in the demand-side

model. These data are derived from UN population forecasts.
Emission Trading Scheme characteristics, prices of CO2 allowances, cap on

historical CO2 emissions and the level of auctioning in the ETS determine the
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Page 33
additional costs of airlines from aviation participation in the ETS. The MTF
model expects that these are passed onto passengers and therefore reduces
the passengers' demand accordingly.
The medium-term forecast is prepared in two stages: first the airport-pair forecast;
then the traffic per volume of airspace, calculated from this using estimates of routing
from airport to airport. Published tables, reports, graphs and maps are derived from
the second of these, for short- and medium-term forecast alike.
Each airport pair is grown as follows:
All-cargo flights are grown based on GDP growth.
Small airport pairs (< 25 flights per year) are kept constant.
Growth of military flight movements in the first year of the forecast follows the
average of the last three years for the traffic zone as a whole, with a maximum
change of 5%, and is kept constant afterwards.
Business aviation flights are grown based on observed trend at a State level
together with economic growth if this is a useful explanatory variable for this
State.
For other traffic, the use of supply-side or demand-side approach is

considered. Supply-side is used if traffic matches one of the standard histories
(circular flights, long-term stable or declining traffic, direct relationship to GDP)
and if demand exceeds the supply. Otherwise, it is demand that drives and
limits the growth.
In the demand-side, passenger numbers are estimated from flight counts,

aircraft type and load factors, then grown according to GDP growth and the
elasticity for this region-pair, then converted back to a number of flights using
a number of seats-to-flights relationships calibrated on historical data.
The first years of the forecast are aligned with the short-term forecast.
The growth of movements on an airport-pair may then be reduced if there has

been a reduction in journey times by HST since the baseline year, adjusted for
low-cost growth in the traffic zone and for any network change assumptions
(by traffic zone, airport, or airport pair) and capped by airport capacity.
The resulting growth per airport pair is the airport-pair forecast. The final step is to
calculate how many flights are generated in each airspace by these airport-to-airport
flights. This is done using a combination of the routings through airspace observed in
the baseline year and trends in overflight growth per traffic zone.
At each stage, the results are validated using any available data, such as from the
STATFOR User Group or from the Industry Monitor. For example: base-year airport
movements are compared with statistics published by airports; first-year growth is
compared with known airline plans; long-term growth is compared with other
forecasts in terms of flights or passengers. Such comparisons are typically a matter of
judgement, rather than a precise numerical correlation.
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A.2 Service Units Forecast

The overall forecast method and tool have been finalised in the first half of 2010. The
forecasting methodology is in two parts (see Figure 33), the short-term forecast and
medium-term forecast being produced by two independent means. However; these
two forecasts are later realigned for the first 2-year look ahead period, the scope of
the short-term forecast, to account for the fact that the short-term forecast, which is
based on time-series modelling of trends and seasonal and cyclical patterns in actual
monthly service units, is usually better in capturing latest developments and giving
the short-term outlook.
The short-term forecast is based on time series analysis, using actual monthly data of
total service units recorded in the route charges system from January 1990 (or first
month of operation in the route charges system). The latest EUROCONTROL flight
forecast and medium-term forecast of service units prepared are used as supporting
information in developing this forecast of service units. The actual data for April and
May 2010 have been adjusted for the drop in service units due to flight cancellations
resulting from the eruption of the Eyjafjallajkull volcano. Some local corrections were
also introduced to compensate for some loss of service units that could be attributed
to local strikes or bad weather disruptions. In doing so, we avoid some exceptional
events to be captured as being part of the normal evolution pattern of the service
units.
Figure 33. Service units forecast method.
Historic TSU data
Forecast
SU data
Short Term
Flight
Forecasts
(STF)
Aligned
STF
Unaligned
STF
STF &
MTF
Alignment
Medium Term
Flight
Forecasts
(MTF)
Unaligned
MTF
Short Term SU
Forecasts
(ST-SUF)
Unaligned
ST-SUF
Historic average
aircraft weight
Historic average
distance flown
Forecast
weight factors
Forecast
distance factors
Aligned
MTF
Medium
Term SU
Forecasts
(MT-SUF)
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Unaligned
MT-SUF
Aligned
ST-SUF
ST-SUF &
MT-SUF
Alignment
Aligned
MT-SUF
Page 35
The method for the medium-term forecast of the service units adopts the structure for
calculating the en route service units in reality: it combines forecasts of distance
factors and weight factors with the number of flights as forecast by the latest
EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast of flight movements, thus making these two
forecasts compatible. The future distance and weight factors are derived from
observed historical trends in average flown distance and average MTOW of aircraft
on arrivals, departures, internals and overflights in each charging area.
For managing risk related to future traffic uncertainty, in addition to a base central
figure the medium-term forecast produces also high and low values. Overall, the
future total service units can be expected to be between these about half of the time.
The EUROCONTROL forecast of service units is impartial in that it uses the same
method for all the States. However, users should note that for the medium-term
forecasts, the forecast modelling as well as the results are based on a relatively short
history of data (starting mostly in January 2003) which did not allow full assessment
of the forecast performance for the complete five-year horizon and thus its results
should be treated with care.
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ANNEX B.
TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITONS
B.1 ESRA08
The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA) is designed to include as
much as possible of the ECAC area for which data are available from a range of
sources within the Agency. It is used for high-level reports from the Agency, when
referring to 'total Europe'. The ESRA changes only slowly with time; a region is added
to the ESRA only when there is a full year's data from all sources, so that growth
calculations are possible. ESRA08 was introduced in the MTF09 report. It is now
used as a basis for comparison at European level in the forecasts. Note that the
EUROCONTROL forecast includes also regions outside of the ESRA (eg. Armenia
and Latvia) though still within ECAC.
Figure 34. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area.
Traffic zones are represented by an aggregate of FIRs & UIR of States. These do not
take delegation of airspace into account. For individual States, the differences
between charging areas and ACCs can have a big impact on overflight counts (and
thus on total counts where the total is dominated by overflights). For the ESRA as a
whole, there is only a small proportion of overflights, so that the difference between a
FIR and an ACC definition is small.
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Page 37
B.2 Traffic regions

The traffic regions are defined for statistical convenience and do not reflect an official
position of the EUROCONTROL Agency.
Traffic flows are described as being to or from one of a number of traffic regions listed
in Figure 35 (for example in Figure 52). Each traffic region is made up of a number of
traffic zones (=States). In August 2012, STATFOR has updated its traffic region
definition as part of the 2012 actions agreed by the STATFOR User Group. The redefinition of the traffic region aims at improving consistency with ICAO and AEA ones.
The new definition is listed in Figure 35 (and directly influencing the results in Figure
52, for example). In Figure 35, traffic zones are indicated by the first letters of the
ICAO location codes for brevity.
As far as Europe is concerned, it is split into two regions: ESRA (defined in the
previous section) and Other Europe.
For flow purposes, ESRA is split into a North-West region mostly of mature air traffic
markets, a Mediterranean region stretching from the Canaries to Turkey and with a
significant tourist element, and an Eastern region.
The Other Europe region (i.e. non ESRA) includes the States along the border of
ESRA and extends from Greenland to the Urals and Azerbaijan.
The map of the nine traffic regions used in our statistics is displayed in Figure 36.
Figure 35. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012.

ICAO region/country
ESRA North-West
ESRA Mediterranean
ESRA East
Other Europe
North Atlantic
Mid-Atlantic
South-Atlantic
North-Africa
Southern Africa
Middle-East
Asia/Pacific
Page 38
EB, ED, EF, EG, EH, EI, EK, EL, EN, ES, ET, LF, LN, LO, LS
GC, LC, LE, LG, LI, LM, LP, LT
BK, EP, LA, LB, LD, LH, LJ, LK, LQ, LR, LU, LW, LY, LZ, UK
BG, BI, EE, EK (Faroe Islands), ENSB (Bodo Oc.), EV, EY, GE,
LX, UB, UD, UG, UH, UI, UL, UM, UN, UO, UR, US, UU, UW,
Shanwick Oc., Santa Maria FIR
C, K, P
M, T
S
DA, DT, GM, HE, HL
D, F, G, H, (except DA, DT, HE, HL, GC, GM)
L, O (except OA, OP)
A, N, P, Y, OA, OP, R, V, W, Z (except ZZZZ), U (except UK and
areas in Other Europe)
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Figure 36. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August
2012.
The substantial changes brought by the new Traffic Region definition (compared to
the previous one, shown in Figure 37) are:
A large region named Asia/Pacific now covers the Far East and Australasia
regions. The old Former CIS region has been redistributed between Other
Europe and Asia/Pacific. And the former Oceania region has disappeared
being fully integrated into Asia/Pacific;
Other Europe stands for the complementary part of ESRA. Greenland and
Iceland have been integrated into this region and no longer contribute to the
North American traffic;
Sudan and South Sudan have been moved to Southern Africa;
Afghanistan and Pakistan no longer belong to the Middle East; they now
belong to Asia/Pacific.
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Page 39
Figure 37. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics before 31 August
2012.
B.3 Functional Airspace Blocks

On top of the traffic zones, this report also presents the forecast of IFR movements from
2013 to 2019 for the Functional Airspace Blocks (FAB). A FAB is a block of airspace
based on operational requirements regardless of the State boundaries (Figure 38). FAB
initiatives (definitions) are constantly evolving according to the targets defined to improve
the performance of the European air traffic management network. The FAB initiatives
have been updated in August 2012 along with the new definitions stipulated by the
European Commission. The following FAB modifications have been covered here:
Page 40
UK-Ireland FAB
Danish-Swedish FAB, now out of North European FAB
Baltic FAB (Lithuania, Poland)
BLUE MED FAB (Albania, Cyprus, Greece, Italy and Malta), now excludes
Tunisia and Egypt
Danube FAB (Bulgaria, Romania)
FAB CE (Austria, Bosnia & Herzegovina, Croatia, Czech Republic, Hungary,
Slovak Republic, Slovenia)
FABEC (Belgium, France, Germany, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and
Switzerland)
North European FAB (Estonia, Finland, Latvia, and Norway)
South West FAB (Portugal [Santa Maria FIR excluded], Spain).
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Figure 38. FAB initiatives as of August 2012.

Source: EUROCONTROL PRU
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Page 41
ANNEX C.
SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS
C.1 Economic growth

Forecasts of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) are provided by Oxford
Economics Ltd (OE). These are shown for specific States 3 in Figure 41. For all other
States, the growth of the traffic region is used (See Figure 42). Note that the definition
of the traffic regions has been modified since August 2012. The new definitions of the
traffic regions are provided in Figure 35 of Annex A. Data for this forecast originate
from the January 2013 update of the OE GDP forecast.
The high- and low-growth scenarios are based on fixed offsets 4 from these forecasts.
In the MTF12 September update (MTF12b, see Ref. 1), GDP data were based on OE
GDP forecast published in August 2012. The current January data show a downward
revision of the GDP growth in 2013 for Europe. From 2014 onwards, this trend goes
on and the new forecast remains lower than the previous one in growth as well as in
absolute terms. Figure 39 illustrates how the economic outlook has changed for EU27
since the MTF12b update.
Figure 39. Since the last forecast, the economic growth outlook for EU27 has
been revised downwards for 2013 and remains lower in the later years.
When inspecting the data in more detail, most of the GDP forecasts per state have
been revised downwards for the 2013-2019 period. Figure 40 shows the evolution of
OE GDP forecasts for the EU27 zone in 2012 to 2014 published from 2010 onwards.
For example, in the last 12 months, the forecast for 2013 has been revised
downwards by 1.5 percentage points.
3 In fact the forecasts are used to refer to traffic zones. These are typically States, represented by its FIR. However,
Belgium & Luxembourg are combined, as are Serbia and Montenegro. Spain and Portugal are each divided into 2.
4 +1%, -0.8% for early years and big States, +1.5%, -0.8% for early years and small States, +0.5%, -0.4% for late years and
big States, +0.8%, -0.6% for late years and small States.
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Figure 40. Summary of changes in GDP forecasts for 2012-2014 for EU27:
constant downward revisions from end 2011.
Source : Oxford Economics
The Euro crisis has strongly hit the economy of European countries in 2012 and 2013
is no longer expected to bring signs of a significant recovery. Some states are
expected to remain in recession with the biggest contractions expected for Greece
(-4.3%), Portugal (-2.6%), Cyprus (-2.3%), Slovenia (-1.5%), Spain (-1.3%) and Italy
(-1.2%). However these falls are expected to be less strong than in 2012 and the
economies of these countries are expected to stabilise in 2014 (except for Greece
that is expected to remain in recession in 2014) or slightly grow before coming back
to moderate growth from 2015. On the plus side, Turkey is expected to grow by 4.3%
in 2013 and by more than 5% in the following year. GDP growths in France (0%),
Germany (0.9%) and the UK (1%) for 2013 have also been revised downwards for
2013 since the last forecast.
Overall, 2013 is expected to see almost no growth in Europe, with a GDP growth
expected to stand at 0.1%. In the following years, the growth rates will increase to
around 1.4% in 2014, and stabilise around 2% towards 2019, well below the pre-2008
levels (average annual growth typically around 3.5%-4%). This lasting revision
downwards, even in the medium-term, is one of the main noticeable points for this
forecast.
The North Africa region, here, gives the GDP growth only for a limited number of
states whose GDP is not provided explicitly to the forecast model.
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Figure 41. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone.

Source: 2010-2019 from Oxford Economics Ltd, Jan2013
Comments: Real GDP Growth in local currency.
Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 15/01/2013
Actual
2010
Base
2012
2013
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Albania
3.5% 3.1% 0.9% 2.6% 3.5% 4.7% 4.7% 4.8% 4.5% 4.4%
Armenia
2.1% 4.4% 5.9% 4.0% 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.7% 4.7%
Austria
2.2% 2.7% 0.6% 0.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%
Azerbaijan
5.0% 0.1% 1.8% 3.0% 4.5% 5.2% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%
Belarus
7.7% 5.3% 2.0% 2.9% 4.0% 4.0% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3%
Belgium/Luxembourg
2.4% 1.8% -0.2% -0.1% 1.0% 1.2% 1.5% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.7% 1.3% -0.4% 0.6% 4.1% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5% 3.5%
Bulgaria
0.5% 1.8% 0.5% 1.5% 2.9% 4.1% 4.6% 5.0% 4.9% 5.3%
Canary Islands
-0.3% 0.4% -1.3% -1.4% 0.3% 1.2% 1.4% 1.8% 2.4% 2.4%
Croatia
-1.2% -0.2% -1.7% 0.3% 2.2% 3.5% 3.9% 4.1% 3.7% 3.1%
Cyprus
1.1% 0.5% -2.3% -2.3% -1.2% 0.7% 2.5% 3.0% 3.4% 3.4%
Czech Republic
2.3% 1.9% -1.1% -0.5% 1.9% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 2.9%
Denmark
1.6% 1.1% -0.5% 0.7% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8%
Estonia
3.3% 8.3% 3.0% 3.1% 4.0% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0%
FYROM
2.8% 3.1% -1.0% 1.8% 4.8% 4.5% 4.2% 3.7% 3.5% 3.0%
Finland
3.3% 2.7% -0.1% 0.2% 1.4% 2.2% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3%
France
1.6% 1.7% -0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.6%
Georgia
6.3% 6.9% 6.0% 5.5% 5.5% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.0% 4.7%
Germany
Greece
4.0% 3.1% 0.9% 0.7% 1.9% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4% 1.6% 1.6%
-4.9% -7.2% -5.8% -4.3% -1.1% 1.0% 1.5% 1.9% 2.0% 2.3%
Hungary
1.3% 1.6% -1.6% -0.0% 1.5% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 3.0% 2.8%
Iceland
-4.0% 2.6% 2.1% 2.4% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5%
Ireland
-0.8% 1.4% 0.6% 0.1% 1.9% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 3.7% 4.2%
Italy
Latvia
1.8% 0.6% -2.1% -1.2% 0.3% 1.1% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3% 1.2%
-0.9% 5.5% 5.2% 3.5% 4.0% 5.5% 5.2% 4.8% 4.6% 4.6%
Lisbon FIR
1.9% -1.6% -3.1% -2.6% 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3%
Lithuania
1.5% 5.9% 3.3% 3.6% 5.5% 6.0% 5.8% 5.3% 4.9% 4.4%
Malta
3.4% 1.9% 0.9% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9%
Moldova
7.1% 6.4% 0.5% 3.7% 4.8% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%
Morocco
3.6% 5.0% 2.5% 5.3% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 4.9%
Netherlands
1.6% 1.1% -0.9% -0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 1.1% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8%
Norway
0.2% 1.3% 3.0% 1.3% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.1% 2.1%
Poland
3.9% 4.3% 2.2% 1.6% 3.1% 3.8% 4.2% 3.9% 3.4% 3.1%
Romania
-1.8% 2.1% 0.1% 0.8% 3.8% 5.6% 5.5% 5.2% 4.9% 4.7%
Santa Maria FIR
1.9% -1.6% -3.1% -2.6% 0.4% 1.1% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3%
Serbia&Montenegro
1.0% 1.6% -1.0% 1.0% 1.7% 2.5% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
Slovakia
4.4% 3.2% 2.4% 2.3% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.0%
Slovenia
Spain
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2011
1.1% 1.0% -2.2% -1.5% 0.8% 3.0% 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%
-0.3% 0.4% -1.3% -1.4% 0.3% 1.2% 1.4% 1.8% 2.4% 2.4%
Sweden
6.3% 3.8% 1.2% 0.7% 2.3% 3.0% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8%
Switzerland
3.0% 1.9% 0.9% 1.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6%
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Actual
2010
Base
2011
2012
2013
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Turkey
9.2% 8.5% 2.6% 4.3% 5.6% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3%
UK
1.8% 0.9% 0.1% 1.0% 2.1% 2.4% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.6%
Ukraine
4.1% 5.2% 0.6% 2.4% 4.6% 4.1% 3.9% 3.9% 4.2% 4.2%
Figure 42. GDP growth by Origin-Destination Zone.

Source: 1993-2004 from STATFOR records. 2005 onwards from Oxford Economics Ltd, Jan 13.
Comments: Real GDP Growth in local currency.
Actual
Base
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Brazil
7.5% 2.7% 1.0% 3.9% 4.9% 4.8% 4.3% 4.3% 4.2% 3.9%
China
10% 9.3% 7.7% 8.3% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.5% 7.4% 7.2%
India
8.9% 7.5% 5.4% 6.0% 7.5% 7.9% 7.8% 7.7% 7.7% 7.7%
Israel
5.7% 4.6% 3.3% 3.0% 4.5% 4.3% 4.0% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6%
South Africa
3.1% 3.5% 2.5% 3.0% 4.2% 4.4% 4.7% 4.6% 4.4% 4.0%
Figure 43. GDP growth by Traffic Region.

Source: 2005 onwards updated from Oxford Economics Jan 13
Comments: Real GDP Growth.
Actual
2010 2011
Base
2012
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Asia/Pacific
5.5% 1.3% 2.5% 1.9% 3.1% 3.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3%
ESRA East
2.3% 2.9% 0.7% 0.9% 2.7% 3.6% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 3.2%
ESRA Mediterranean
1.8% 1.2% -1.3% -0.5% 1.2% 1.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5%
ESRA North-West
2.5% 2.0% 0.4% 0.6% 1.7% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0%
Mid-Atlantic
4.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6% 4.6% 4.2% 4.1% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5%
Middle-East
5.7% 5.2% 3.0% 3.6% 4.2% 4.3% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 3.9%
North Atlantic
2.4% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 3.1% 3.3% 2.9% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9%
North-Africa
4.2% -3.4% 4.6% 4.1% 4.8% 5.3% 5.3% 5.0% 4.9% 4.7%
Other Europe
4.1% 4.3% 3.5% 3.6% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0%
South-Atlantic
6.1% 7.0% 3.6% 3.6% 4.5% 4.2% 3.9% 3.6% 3.4% 3.3%
Southern Africa
6.1% 4.9% 4.4% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7% 5.6% 5.2% 5.1% 5.0%
C.2 Events and Trends

The events and trends assumptions consist of adjustments to arrival, departure and
internal traffic. The assumptions are listed in Figure 44, where they are expressed as
'cumulative' change: so a 1.01 figure in the year 2010 only would mean increase
growth by 1% in 2010 and decrease it in 2011 (with a total cumulative effect of 0 over
the full period of the forecast).
The effects considered are:
EU accession: Croatia and Iceland are expected to join the EU in the following
years, which is likely to boost their air-traffic thanks to air transport and market
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liberalisation. The impact is expected to be seen from 2014 in Croatia and is

factored in by additional 5% growth in 2014, halving in the subsequent years. For
Iceland, the impact is expected to be more modest in an economy that is already
strongly liberalised and is modelled by an additional 2.5% growth in 2015, halving
in the following years.
The London Olympics in 2012 have generated an additional 0.1% in arrivaldeparture traffic and 0.5% additional internal traffic in 2012. This will be subtracted
to the forecast from 2013 to 2019.
The EURO 2012 has also generated extra traffic in Poland and Ukraine in 2012,
which will have to be subtracted to the forecast from 2013 to 2019:
o
0.9% of arrival-departure traffic, 0.7% internals for Poland,
2.3% of arrival-departure traffic, 3.5% internals for Ukraine.
Failures of aircraft operators: some adjustments have been made either to model
the recovery of traffic after an airline failure whose effects are already visible with a
traffic decline (eg. Malev in Hungary, Cimber Sterling or in Denmark) or to model
the impact of a failure when it has only just happened (eg. Aerosvit in Ukraine
although there is a suggestion that Aerosvit might start flying again) and its
recovery. Such events are modelled by short-term impacts (either upwards or
downwards) on the concerned flows that are phased to change at each change of
schedule to assume a return to previous traffic levels within the next 2 years as
other companies respond.
Fleet reductions: some airlines have recently announced that they will cut the size
of their fleet. This will lead to a sustained reduction of traffic on the main flows
where aircraft are operated by these airlines. We assumed that the reduction in
flights will be proportional to both the market share of this airline on the concerned
flow and to the announced fleet cut. In most cases, we have considered around 2/3
of the reduction will happen with the Summer schedule 2013, and the rest of the
cuts will take place with the Winter schedule 2013-2014. Adjustments have thus
been done to the German, English, Italian, Spanish, Canaries, Estonian and Polish
traffic.
Fleet increase has also been considered for the Turkish traffic based on the
information available about aircraft deliveries.
There is an argument that in modelling these changes explicitly, we risk double

counting effects which should be picked up indirectly from a decline in GDP. However,
we have noted that traffic can fall over and above the rate that would be suggested by
GDP declines, and we consider this to be a way to capture that excess.
No adjustments have been made to model the impact of the EURO 2016 in France:
this decision was taken based on the impact of the Olympics on the UK traffic that was
not significant. The effect might be added in later forecasts, when the event is nearer.
No more adjustments will be applied for the impact of the Arab Spring as the situation
has now stabilised, even if at a lower level of traffic than in 2010, especially in the case
of traffic to and from Egypt. However, if any recovery is expected to happen there, this
one will be slow and captured within the trends of the short-term forecast integrated in
the 7-year forecast.
All of the events and trends that have been factored in this seven-year forecast are
listed in Figure 44. Note that in the case of UK, Ukraine and Poland, the impacts listed
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Released Issue
here are the result of combined effects of both sport event and either airline failures or
fleet reduction.
Figure 44. Events and Trends assumptions by Traffic Zone.

Source: STATFOR analysis and modelling
Comments: Consolidation includes: trends from STF and future events such as EU Accession, Airline failure
Units: Growth index (Baseline Year=1.0). Data last updated: 15/02/2013
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Canary Islands Total: Arr/Dep H
0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991
0.993 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991
0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991 0.991
Total: Arr/Dep H
. 1.050 1.075 1.085 1.090 1.090 1.090
. 1.050 1.075 1.085 1.090 1.090 1.090
Croatia
Estonia
France
Germany
Hungary
Iceland
. 1.050 1.075 1.085 1.090 1.090 1.090
Total: Arr/Dep H
0.910 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900
0.910 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900
0.910 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900 0.900
Total: Internal H
1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003
1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003
1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003 1.003
Total: Internal H
0.972 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970
0.972 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970
0.972 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970 0.970
Total: Arr/Dep H
0.991 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990
0.991 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990
0.991 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990 0.990
Total: Arr/Dep H
1.150 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160
1.150 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160
1.150 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160 1.160
Total: Arr/Dep H
. 1.025 1.035 1.040 1.040 1.040
. 1.025 1.035 1.040 1.040 1.040
. 1.025 1.035 1.040 1.040 1.040
L
Italy
Moldova
Poland
Total: Internal H
0.987 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976
0.987 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976
0.987 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976 0.976
Total: Arr/Dep H
0.992 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984
0.992 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984
0.992 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984 0.984
Total: Internal H
0.906 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823
0.906 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823
0.906 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823 0.823
Total: Arr/Dep H
0.958 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931
0.958 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931
0.958 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931 0.931
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2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

Spain
Switzerland
Turkey
UK
Ukraine
Total: Internal H
0.983 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982
0.983 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982
0.983 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982 0.982
Total: Arr/Dep H
0.984 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983
0.984 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983
0.984 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983 0.983
Total: Internal H
0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992
0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992
0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992 0.992
Total: Arr/Dep H
0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997
0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997
0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997
Total: Internal H
1.050 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085
1.050 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085
1.050 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085 1.085
Total: Arr/Dep H
1.035 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063
1.035 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063
1.035 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063 1.063
Total: Internal H
0.990 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975
0.990 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975
0.990 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975 0.975
Total: Arr/Dep H
0.998 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997
0.998 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997
0.998 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997 0.997
Total: Internal H
0.891 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915
0.891 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915
0.891 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915 0.915
Total: Arr/Dep H
0.914 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927
0.914 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927
0.914 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927 0.927
C.3 Low-Cost Carrier Growth

The starting point is the market share of low-cost carriers in each traffic zone in
September 2012. The low-cost carriers are defined by means of a list of aircraft
operators that can be found on STATFOR web page 5 . For the purposes of this
analysis only, the market share is defined as the share of passenger flights (i.e.
excluding the military, cargo and business aviation since these are forecasted
separately, see Annex A.1)
The additional flight movements expected to be generated by low-cost carrier growth
are represented by the input assumptions given in Figure 45. The figure shows the
actual and future low-cost market share for each scenario.
For this forecast, the rates of growth have been updated to reflect the recent situation
in each State. Compared to the forecast of September 2012 (MTF12b), the significant
changes on the assumptions of low-cost growth are mainly linked to recent
5
See http://www.eurocontrol.int/faq/statfor
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Released Issue
expansions of the low-cost market, in addition to the fact that we are also looking one
year more ahead in 2019 instead of 2018 in MTF12b. In the forecast, an increase of
the low-cost segment in Germany has also been taken into account for the expected
transfer by Lufthansa of part of its flight to its low-cost subsidiary Germanwings.
The main changes are the following:
An increase by around 10% of the forecast of the low-cost market share in

Denmark, Iceland, Sweden and Finland.
An increase of the low-cost market share forecast, sometimes significant, in
small East-European countries whose market has recently open to low-cost
carriers and where low-cost has in some cases become dominant:
o from 0-6% to 10-15% in Georgia,
o
from 6-8% to 14-25% in FYROM,
from 11-21% to 16-35% in Estonia,
from 25-47% to 44-54% in Lithuania,
from 38-46% to 56-60% in Albania,
from 10-32% to 55-81% in Latvia (in 2012, 81% of the traffic was low-cost)
An increase of the forecast in countries where the slots of a company that has
failed (in Hungary and in Spain and the Canary Islands) have been taken over
by low-cost companies:
o from 15-25% to 43-53% in Hungary
o
an increase by around 6% in Spain and the Canary Islands
The low-cost market has also expanded in Turkey and the forecast has
increased from 19-25% to 30-36%.
Figure 45. Low-cost effects by Traffic Zone.

Source: STATFOR Analysis and modelling
Comments: Represents additional growth for Low-Cost, but only the baseline year is a true statistic for low-cost
Units: Percentage Additional Growth Due to Low-Cost Growth. Data last updated: 12/02/2013
Actual Low Base High
2012 2019 2019 2019
Albania
56% 56% 58% 60%
Armenia
2%
Austria
4%
7%
23% 22% 27% 28%
Azerbaijan
Belarus
Belgium/Luxembourg
Bosnia-Herzegovina
2%
2%
2%
4%
7%
1%
1%
3%
6%
18% 17% 22% 23%

7%
6% 12% 18%
Bulgaria
20% 19% 28% 38%
Canary Islands
40% 39% 44% 49%
Croatia
23% 22% 27% 33%
Cyprus
30% 29% 38% 48%
Czech Republic
26% 25% 34% 44%
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Actual Low Base High

2012 2019 2019 2019
Denmark
22% 21% 26% 27%
Estonia
17% 16% 25% 35%
FYROM
15% 14% 19% 25%
Finland
28% 27% 32% 37%
France
21% 20% 25% 26%
Georgia
10% 10% 12% 15%
Germany
30% 29% 36% 37%
Greece
25% 24% 29% 30%
Hungary
44% 43% 48% 53%
Iceland
11% 10% 15% 20%
Ireland
49% 48% 53% 58%
Italy
39% 37% 42% 43%
Latvia
81% 55% 65% 81%
Lisbon FIR
33% 32% 37% 42%
Lithuania
45% 44% 49% 54%
Malta
33% 32% 41% 51%
Moldova
10% 10% 12% 15%
Morocco
18% 17% 25% 35%
Netherlands
25% 24% 29% 30%
Norway
24% 23% 28% 29%
Poland
30% 29% 38% 48%
Romania
28% 27% 36% 46%
Santa Maria FIR
1%
1%
3%
6%
Serbia&Montenegro
11% 10% 16% 21%
Slovakia
31% 30% 35% 40%
Slovenia
3%
2% 11% 21%
Spain
54% 54% 56% 56%
Sweden
30% 29% 34% 35%
Switzerland
17% 16% 21% 22%
Turkey
31% 30% 35% 36%
UK
47% 46% 48% 51%
Ukraine
6%
5% 11% 17%
C.4 Load Factors

Assumptions about the development of load factors are based on data from the
Association of European Airlines (AEA). Simple forecasts have been made using the
recent trends shown in the annual data. These will be used as inputs to the MediumTerm Forecast, and are shown in Figure 47.
It could be argued that load factors for other market segments (eg. regional or lowcost carriers) are different from those provided by the AEA. We assume that the
changes in load factors for traditional carriers are similar to changes in load factors of
Page 50
Released Issue
other segments. It is the change in load factors between baseline year and forecast
year, not the absolute level, that is important in the forecast.
Compared to the forecast of September 2012 (MTF12b), there will be an increase by
1.6% in the load factors between what was forecast last year in 2018 and what is
forecast now for 2019. This accounts for the record high load factors observed during
the whole year 2012 (Figure 46). The forecast of the load factors is based on the
previous increasing trend, combined with assumptions about maximum limits that can
be maintained by the airlines in the medium-term. Note that the maximum limits have
been raised to 90% for Asia/Pacific and all Atlantic-related regions, whose load
factors had all reached their maximum capping value in MTF12b forecast (low, base
and high scenarios all forecasting 85% for the load factors in 2018). Consequently,
the forecast for those regions has increased and is now, according to the scenario, in
between 85% and the 90% threshold. Compared to previous forecasts, we have also
considered that high load factors were rather a cause of low flight growth instead of
being an effect of high growth as it was considered previously: recent increase of load
factors has shown that they could still grow and were sufficient to absorb flight
demand.
Figure 46. European load factors reached record highs during the whole year
2012 (source data: AEA.).
Released Issue
Page 51
Figure 47. Load factors by Traffic Region.

Source: Actual: AEA, IATA. Forecast: STATFOR analysis and modelling.
Comments: Data for 2012 based on year to November
Units: Percentage Load Factor for this Traffic Region. Data last updated: 12/02/2013
Actual
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Low
Base
High
2019
2019
2019
Asia/Pacific
78.7% 76.6% 80.7% 76.3% 78.0% 79.7% 80.7% 83.2% 80.7% 80.6% 83.6% 81.7% 80.3% 89.4% 87.0% 84.6%
ESRA East
64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 71.0% 73.5% 76.7% 74.9% 73.1%
ESRA Mediterranean
64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 71.0% 73.5% 76.7% 74.9% 73.1%
ESRA North-West
64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 71.0% 73.5% 76.7% 74.9% 73.1%
Mid-Atlantic
79.8% 78.9% 79.1% 79.4% 80.3% 81.7% 82.1% 84.3% 83.3% 81.7% 82.3% 82.0% 83.0% 90.0% 88.0% 85.6%
Middle-East
67.1% 63.3% 67.5% 69.2% 69.6% 73.5% 70.8% 74.6% 73.5% 69.3% 71.3% 70.0% 71.5% 79.4% 76.3% 73.1%
North Atlantic
77.4% 73.6% 79.7% 79.5% 81.3% 82.2% 81.1% 81.7% 80.9% 82.0% 83.9% 82.9% 84.2% 89.9% 87.7% 85.4%
North-Africa
70.5% 65.2% 68.8% 65.3% 68.7% 67.0% 68.4% 69.4% 70.4% 67.9% 69.8% 67.9% 70.9% 73.1% 70.6% 68.0%
Other Europe
64.4% 62.5% 64.5% 65.0% 65.3% 66.9% 68.4% 68.9% 67.7% 67.7% 69.1% 71.0% 73.5% 76.7% 74.9% 73.1%
South-Atlantic
79.7% 73.8% 76.1% 82.2% 82.9% 82.5% 86.3% 85.1% 81.0% 80.2% 85.1% 86.0% 86.4% 90.0% 90.0% 88.4%
Southern Africa
74.3% 77.4% 76.4% 75.9% 78.2% 77.9% 77.9% 79.2% 77.8% 77.6% 77.4% 76.9% 78.5% 83.0% 81.8% 79.8%
C.5 High-Speed train Network Development

The model converts improved rail travel times into increased market share for rail,
and thus fewer passengers travelling by air. For this forecast, the new or improved
connections listed in Figure 48 have been considered. The improvements are
expressed in terms of travel time.
Figure 48. High Speed Train times evolution as from 2013 to 2019.
Source: Actuals from on-line timetables. Plans from UIC, TEN-T and elsewhere.
Units: Travel time (minutes). Data last updated: 15/01/2013 Distances estimated from airport locations.
Ankara
Rail Time (mins)
Km
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Bursa
318
240
150
519
900
200
398
210
183
Izmir
Bale
Mulhouse
Paris
Brussels
Luxembourg
176
135
90
Rotterdam
133
105
78
Amsterdam
174
146
99
Strasbourg
337
270
180
Leipzig
102
72
39
Munchen
307
300
150
Bern
348
230
200
Bale Mulhouse
274
170
140
London
641
343
300
Paris
444
230
215
Stuttgart
154
70
53
Erfurt
Frankfurt
Page 52
Distance
Released Issue
Istanbul
Distance
Rail Time (mins)
Km
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Ankara
335
330
180
Konya
454
745
210
Sivas
682
720
Bursa
84
240
Bern
239
180
150
Bale Mulhouse
166
100
Bale Mulhouse
361
230
London
516
251
Frankfurt
310
270
Munchen
354
345
Madrid
Alicante
361
Munchen
Berlin
481
Zurich
Barcelona
Bordeaux
Brest
Karlsruhe
Koln/Bonn
Leipzig
Paris
Perpignan
171
140
69
200
240
150
190
360
120
530
245
260
240
195
824
480
400
519
182
135
511
250
180
Madrid
1062
810
700
Munchen
675
360
330
Rotterdam
364
189
165
Rennes
326
127
90
Amsterdam
409
233
186
Stuttgart
490
220
190
Barcelona
158
165
92
Madrid
605
500
290
Amsterdam
London
359
277
240
Strasbourg
Luxembourg
162
130
85
Lille
405
240
150
Paris
381
140
110
Tours
Bordeaux
314
166
120
Zurich
Paris
469
270
243
C.6 Airport Capacity

The forecast takes airport capacity into account. The final stage of this is that demand
in excess of the expected capacity cannot be accommodated and is lost. For this 7year forecast, information about the capacity of 105 airports has been collected
through the EUROCONTROL Airport Corner project that, amongst other airportrelated information, monitors future capacity at airports. The current figures have
been frozen at the beginning of February. These capacities are treated as confidential
and will not be reported in this document. The figures will also be used for the
Challenges of Growth 2013 update, and will be reported on in more detail there.
Released Issue
Page 53
C.7 Airport Traffic Switch

Since the publication of the February forecast, the opening of the Berlin/Brandenburg
Airport has been postponed until March 2015. The assumption about the transfer of
Berlin/Tegel to Berlin/Schnefeld (becoming Berlin/Brandenburg) has been reworked:
75% of the traffic moved in 2015 and 100% from 2016.
We have also considered the transfer of all low-cost traffic from Bucharest Aurel
Vlaicu International (LRBS) to Bucharest Otopeni International (LRBO): the change
will be completed as of 2013, generating a transfer of 42% of the traffic compared to
2012. As the switch of low-cost segment is not an option for the traffic types that can
be considered in the MTF method, this transfer has been approximated by assuming
that all flights to Europe (ESRA) will be concerned (short-haul traffic, which is what
low-cost flights are).
The full transfer of Business flights from Madrid-Torrejon (LETO) towards MadridBajaras (LEMD) from February 2013 has also been taken into account.
C.8 Airline schedules

The schedules data originating from INNOVATA LLC have been used in this forecast.
The data feed is slightly different from the OAG data previously used in the
EUROCONTROL forecast (some airlines not reported or reported differently). As with
the previous source of schedules, experience shows that they can be used to look
ahead only a few months. In the end the schedules have only been allowed to
influence the forecast between February and April. Figure 49 shows per country the
expected growth as available from the Schedule data at the beginning of February, as
used in the forecast.
Figure 49. The schedule expects a monthly decline of around -3% to -4% for
Europe until the end of the Winter schedule.
Scheduled Departure
Growth
Schedule Reference
Date
01FEB13
FEB13 MAR13 APR13
Albania
24%
30%
29%
Armenia
-29%
-24%
-25%
Austria
-3%
-3%
-4%
Azerbaijan
15%
15%
24%
Belarus
6%
6%
6%
Belgium/Luxembourg
-3%
-2%
2%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
-12%
-8%
-23%
Bulgaria
-8%
-13%
-9%
Canary Islands
-2%
-1%
-4%
Croatia
-0%
-2%
3%
Cyprus
-11%
-8%
-4%
Czech Republic
-14%
-12%
-10%
Denmark
Page 54
-6%
-8%
-2%
Estonia
-17%
-16%
-39%
FYROM
8%
20%
30%
Released Issue
Scheduled Departure
Growth
Schedule Reference
Date
01FEB13
FEB13 MAR13 APR13
Finland
-5%
-6%
-12%
France
-3%
-4%
-1%
Georgia
10%
16%
13%
Germany
-4%
-6%
0%
Greece
-10%
-14%
-6%
Hungary
-12%
5%
-3%
Iceland
8%
9%
-8%
Ireland
0%
1%
-0%
Italy
-6%
-6%
-3%
Latvia
-1%
-3%
-4%
Lisbon FIR
Lithuania
Malta
-1%
0%
-13%
-8%
2%
-1%
9%
Moldova
18%
17%
18%
Morocco
4%
6%
12%
-1%
-0%
3%
1%
-5%
14%
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Romania
Santa Maria FIR
-2%
-10%
3%
2%
4%
-3%
-4%
-8%
1%
-2%
-1%
Serbia&Montenegro
-2%
-2%
-3%
Slovakia
-7%
-3%
-16%
Slovenia
-8%
-16%
-18%
Spain
-5%
-7%
-5%
Sweden
-5%
-9%
0%
Switzerland
-1%
-1%
0%
Turkey
11%
12%
16%
Ukraine
-7%
-1%
28%
UK
-4%
-3%
-1%
ESRA02
-3%
-4%
-0%
EU27
-4%
-5%
-2%
ESRA08
-3%
-4%
-0%
Released Issue
Page 55
ANNEX D.
SUMMARY OF IFR MOVEMENTS FORECAST FOR EUROPE
Figure 50. Growth in Europe
Released Issue
Page 56
Figure 51. Flights on main flow categories in Europe
IFR Movements(000s)
2008
Total: Internal
Total: Arr/Dep
Total: Overflight
Grand Total
2009
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
. 7,430 7,667
7,967
8,294
8,550
8,841
9,115
7,602 7,562 7,790 7,514 7,328 7,491
7,683
7,901
8,085
8,290
8,496 -0.7% -7.1% -0.5%
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Annual Growth
2019
AAGR
2019/
2012
. -1.1%
3.2% 3.9% 4.1% 3.1% 3.4% 3.1%
2.8%
3.0% -3.5% -2.5%
2.2% 2.6% 2.8% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5%
1.8%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
8,182
. 7,214 7,278
7,333
7,440
7,514
7,608
7,710
. -4.0%
0.9% 0.8% 1.5% 1.0% 1.3% 1.3%
0.4%
. 1,997 2,112
2,237
2,377
2,499
2,633
2,769
4.2%
5.8% 5.9% 6.3% 5.1% 5.4% 5.2%
5.4%
1,807
1,711 1,815 1,883 1,916 1,967 2,057
2,145
2,243
2,330
2,428
2,525 5.0% -5.3%
6.1%
3.7%
1.7%
2.7%
4.6% 4.3% 4.5% 3.9% 4.2% 4.0%
4.0%
. 1,935 1,994
2,043
2,103
2,150
2,205
2,261
1.0%
3.1% 2.5% 2.9% 2.2% 2.5% 2.6%
2.4%
132
145
155
164
173
183
194
11%
10% 6.4% 6.1% 5.6% 5.9% 5.9%
7.2%
94
100
116
112
119
129
140
147
154
160
167
175
16%
7.1%
15% -3.4%
6.6%
8.3%
9.0% 4.7% 4.7% 4.1% 4.4% 4.4%
5.6%
127
137
141
146
151
156
161
6.4%
8.0% 3.4% 3.7% 3.1% 3.3% 3.3%
4.4%
. 9,559 9,924 10,358 10,835 11,222 11,658 12,079
0.1%
3.8% 4.4% 4.6% 3.6% 3.9% 3.6%
3.4%
10,083
9,975 10,298 10,576 10,885 11,195 0.4% -6.6%
0.8%
3.1% -2.4% -1.3%
2.8% 3.0% 3.2% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%
2.3%
1.4% 1.2% 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6%
0.9%
9,413 9,493 9,784 9,548 9,424 9,689

.
. 9,276 9,409
9,517
9,690
Released Issue
9,815
9,969 10,132
Page 57
. -2.9%
Figure 52. Flights and growth on biggest region-to-region flows in Europe

IFR Movements(000s)
Annual Growth
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
AAGR
2019/
2012
ESRA08
2009
1 ESRA
North-W
2 ESRA
Mediter
3 ESRA
Mediter
4 ESRA
East
5 ESRA
North-W
6 ESRA
North-W
7 ESRA
East
8 ESRA
North-W
ESRA NorthW
ESRA NorthW
ESRA
Mediter
ESRA NorthW
North Atlant
Other
Europe
ESRA East
North-Africa
Page 58
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2009
2010
2011
2012
3521.6
3595.0
3686.9
3798.2
3862.5
3929.4
3979.4
-1.7%
2.1%
2.6%
3.0%
1.7%
1.7%
1.3%
1.5%
3665.3
3573.2
3679.4
3581.4
3479.9
3528.8
3593.4
3663.2
3706.0
3752.8
3797.8
-7.7%
-2.5%
3.0%
-2.7%
-2.8%
1.4%
1.8%
1.9%
1.2%
1.3%
1.2%
0.8%
3429.9
3440.1
3450.5
3479.9
3482.9
3491.3
3504.8
-4.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.9%
0.1%
0.2%
0.4%
-0.3%
1664.6
1722.8
1786.6
1859.7
1917.7
1984.4
2048.1
0.7%
3.5%
3.7%
4.1%
3.1%
3.5%
3.2%
3.1%
1548.8
1576.8
1674.8
1653.8
1639.5
1679.4
1718.6
1767.4
1808.8
1857.9
1906.0
-8.0%
1.8%
6.2%
-1.3%
-0.9%
2.4%
2.3%
2.8%
2.3%
2.7%
2.6%
2.0%
1611.6
1626.4
1633.7
1655.8
1671.0
1693.5
1717.2
-2.6%
0.9%
0.4%
1.4%
0.9%
1.4%
1.4%
0.5%
1300.0
1361.2
1436.6
1506.0
1572.2
1658.7
1747.8
-3.7%
4.7%
5.5%
4.8%
4.4%
5.5%
5.4%
3.8%
1445.0
1466.9
1480.4
1350.0
1282.1
1326.8
1372.5
1425.2
1481.8
1544.2
1610.3
-4.8%
1.5%
0.9%
-8.8%
-5.0%
3.5%
3.4%
3.8%
4.0%
4.2%
4.3%
2.6%
1262.9
1287.0
1303.3
1332.6
1365.8
1404.7
1445.1
-6.5%
1.9%
1.3%
2.2%
2.5%
2.8%
2.9%
1.0%
545.1
568.9
603.0
639.3
670.6
701.6
730.3
4.7%
4.4%
6.0%
6.0%
4.9%
4.6%
4.1%
5.0%
513.5
510.6
520.3
520.4
535.4
551.0
571.6
594.3
614.1
635.6
656.1
-8.3%
-0.6%
1.9%
0.0%
2.9%
2.9%
3.7%
4.0%
3.3%
3.5%
3.2%
3.4%
525.7
532.9
541.5
553.2
561.8
571.4
580.8
1.0%
1.4%
1.6%
2.2%
1.6%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
296.5
307.0
316.2
329.0
337.7
347.4
355.6
0.9%
3.6%
3.0%
4.0%
2.7%
2.9%
2.4%
2.8%
290.4
288.8
302.0
293.7
292.7
301.9
309.6
318.0
325.0
332.7
339.7
-9.0%
-0.6%
4.6%
-2.7%
-0.3%
3.1%
2.5%
2.7%
2.2%
2.4%
2.1%
2.1%
288.5
293.8
298.3
303.8
306.6
310.0
313.8
-1.8%
1.8%
1.5%
1.8%
0.9%
1.1%
1.2%
0.9%
256.7
270.2
286.7
303.4
317.1
330.3
342.4
0.8%
5.2%
6.1%
5.8%
4.5%
4.2%
3.7%
4.3%
203.6
215.4
243.3
254.8
252.2
261.5
271.5
281.6
289.9
298.9
307.7
-16%
5.8%
13%
4.7%
-1.0%
3.7%
3.8%
3.7%
2.9%
3.1%
3.0%
2.7%
247.5
252.6
256.4
261.4
264.6
268.4
272.3
-2.9%
2.1%
1.5%
2.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.5%
1.0%
200.4
207.1
222.5
238.5
254.3
271.4
288.8
-6.3%
3.3%
7.4%
7.2%
6.6%
6.7%
6.4%
4.4%
237.8
234.9
227.8
213.9
196.9
200.5
209.8
220.0
229.2
239.0
249.0
-4.3%
-1.2%
-3.0%
-6.1%
-7.9%
1.8%
4.6%
4.9%
4.2%
4.3%
4.2%
2.2%
193.7
194.6
199.6
205.7
210.8
216.2
221.3
-9.4%
0.5%
2.5%
3.1%
2.4%
2.6%
2.4%
0.5%
217.6
229.5
242.6
259.3
272.5
287.0
301.9
5.1%
5.5%
5.7%
6.9%
5.1%
5.3%
5.2%
5.5%
212.0
227.8
196.9
206.9
214.0
223.7
233.3
245.3
255.6
267.0
277.9
0.9%
7.5%
-14%
5.1%
3.4%
4.6%
4.3%
5.1%
4.2%
4.5%
4.1%
4.3%
210.2
216.4
221.9
228.9
234.8
241.4
248.1
1.6%
3.0%
2.5%
3.2%
2.6%
2.8%
2.8%
2.6%
Released Issue
ANNEX E.
FUTURE TRAFFIC AND GROWTH
Figure 53. Forecast Summary: Annual IFR Movements 2008-2019

IFR Movements
(thousands)
Albania
Armenia
Austria
2008
Belarus
Belgium/Luxembourg
Bulgaria
Canary Islands
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
197
209
219
230
240
250
260
4.2%
148
161
181
197
195
193
203
210
218
225
233
240
3.0%
190
196
199
204
208
212
216
1.5%
57
62
68
74
80
86
93
7.6%
52
48
53
57
56
56
60
65
69
73
78
83
5.7%
55
58
61
64
67
71
74
4.0%
. 1,129 1,184
1,242
1,303
1,353
1,399
1,444
3.5%
1,204 1,113 1,137 1,154 1,133 1,112 1,152
1,190
1,231
1,266
1,306
1,344
2.5%
1,129
1,150
1,164
1,181
1,199
0.8%
. 1,092 1,115
137
149
163
179
194
211
230
8.4%
108
108
120
124
130
135
145
156
167
179
192
206
6.8%
133
140
148
157
165
175
185
5.1%
247
264
282
302
319
337
357
5.8%
199
182
196
225
240
243
256
268
281
293
306
319
4.2%
239
248
254
262
268
276
283
2.4%
. 1,096 1,130
1,168
1,220
1,255
1,294
1,331
2.9%
1,108 1,020 1,035 1,091 1,089 1,079 1,102
1,130
1,162
1,188
1,219
1,247
2.0%
1,078
1,094
1,103
1,116
1,132
0.5%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
2010
Azerbaijan
2009
AAGR
2019/
2012
. 1,061 1,069
275
294
310
328
343
360
377
5.0%
218
224
250
276
268
270
286
296
309
319
331
343
3.5%
265
276
281
288
293
299
305
1.9%
559
606
647
690
731
777
824
6.2%
478
477
504
539
540
550
588
616
647
676
708
742
4.6%
540
569
583
602
618
636
656
2.8%
268
277
287
297
306
318
329
2.6%
307
267
275
298
275
264
269
273
278
282
288
294
1.0%
260
260
259
260
260
262
264
-0.6%
511
543
573
606
635
665
695
5.0%
422
422
459
497
495
502
527
548
571
592
614
635
3.6%
494
510
520
534
544
556
568
2.0%
281
300
318
337
354
374
396
5.6%
272
268
285
281
270
275
290
302
314
326
339
353
3.9%
270
280
286
293
299
307
314
2.2%
683
720
761
804
841
880
915
4.3%
682
648
668
695
679
672
699
725
753
778
802
826
2.8%
660
676
687
702
713
723
733
1.1%
Released Issue
Page 59
IFR Movements
(thousands)
Denmark
Estonia
FYROM
Finland
France
2008
Germany
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Page 60
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
609
634
659
683
703
724
742
3.0%
629
576
595
625
605
601
620
637
653
667
681
695
2.0%
591
603
609
617
622
628
634
0.7%
185
195
208
223
236
248
258
4.6%
174
153
156
178
189
181
188
196
205
213
222
231
2.9%
178
182
185
190
194
198
203
1.0%
116
121
127
134
139
146
152
4.4%
125
125
125
124
113
114
117
122
126
130
135
140
3.1%
112
113
115
118
120
123
125
1.5%
244
253
266
280
292
304
316
3.3%
261
240
242
267
252
240
245
252
260
266
273
280
1.5%
236
237
239
242
244
246
249
-0.2%
. 2,919 2,996
3,078
3,214
3,290
3,376
3,459
2.4%
3,020 2,801 2,794 2,968 2,923 2,876 2,932
2,990
3,075
3,137
3,207
3,270
1.6%
2,861
2,898
2,919
2,949
2,985
0.3%
. 2,830 2,846
116
127
139
151
164
177
192
8.6%
80
77
94
110
108
114
123
132
141
150
161
172
6.9%
112
119
125
132
139
146
154
5.2%
. 3,011 3,129
3,258
3,404
3,515
3,635
3,744
3.1%
3,151 2,930 2,981 3,078 3,018 2,965 3,051
3,136
3,233
3,311
3,395
3,477
2.0%
2,978
3,024
3,049
3,081
3,114
0.4%
. 2,913 2,951
632
661
692
726
754
787
820
3.8%
643
638
655
656
633
622
643
664
689
712
736
760
2.6%
611
622
631
646
657
671
686
1.2%
618
654
694
736
776
817
857
5.5%
622
608
622
617
589
608
635
661
690
716
746
775
4.0%
597
614
626
643
657
672
688
2.2%
125
132
141
150
158
167
176
5.3%
110
101
102
111
123
123
129
135
142
147
153
159
3.7%
122
126
130
134
137
141
144
2.3%
524
544
567
595
619
646
662
3.5%
601
530
513
523
521
517
532
548
566
583
601
621
2.5%
509
517
526
537
545
555
566
1.2%
. 1,667 1,715
1,790
1,876
1,945
2,022
2,100
3.2%
1,736 1,647 1,712 1,726 1,685 1,642 1,672
1,722
1,780
1,830
1,886
1,940
2.0%
1,637
1,666
1,687
1,713
1,739
0.5%
Latvia
2011
Greece
2010
Georgia
2009
AAGR
2019/
2012
. 1,616 1,621
237
250
266
284
299
315
329
5.1%
225
206
214
235
233
231
240
248
258
266
275
284
2.8%
227
231
233
238
241
245
248
0.9%
Released Issue
IFR Movements
(thousands)
Lisbon FIR
Lithuania
Malta
Moldova
Morocco
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Romania
Santa Maria FIR
Serbia&Montenegro
Slovakia
Slovenia
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
AAGR
2019/
2012
438
453
470
489
506
525
544
3.2%
438
406
429
450
438
431
439
448
460
469
480
491
1.7%
424
425
426
430
432
437
441
0.1%
239
255
272
289
305
322
338
5.3%
219
192
206
233
236
235
246
256
267
276
287
297
3.3%
230
237
241
247
251
256
261
1.5%
106
111
116
122
127
133
139
5.3%
84
85
95
81
97
105
109
113
117
121
125
129
4.2%
104
107
109
112
115
117
120
3.1%
69
73
78
83
88
94
100
6.6%
41
44
54
60
64
67
71
74
78
82
86
91
5.1%
66
69
71
73
76
78
81
3.5%
329
344
362
382
401
423
447
4.7%
331
312
339
352
324
323
334
345
357
369
382
396
2.9%
318
324
328
334
339
346
353
1.3%
. 1,094 1,128
1,169
1,215
1,252
1,294
1,320
2.9%
1,090
996 1,013 1,085 1,083 1,078 1,099
1,128
1,156
1,179
1,209
1,239
1.9%
. 1,060 1,067
1,076
1,090
1,097
1,110
1,123
0.5%
596
605
629
642
652
664
675
2.0%
550
526
537
563
587
592
598
617
626
632
639
646
1.4%
584
589
593
600
603
607
610
0.5%
698
728
775
825
870
917
963
5.0%
612
566
599
655
684
687
706
735
768
797
828
858
3.3%
675
683
696
714
728
743
758
1.5%
506
539
578
619
660
703
748
6.3%
444
434
470
487
487
498
523
549
578
605
635
666
4.6%
489
505
520
538
553
569
587
2.7%
120
124
130
136
141
147
153
3.8%
116
113
118
123
118
118
121
125
130
133
137
141
2.6%
116
118
120
123
125
127
129
1.3%
542
572
603
637
666
698
729
4.5%
497
513
543
558
535
533
556
576
600
621
644
667
3.2%
523
537
547
560
570
583
595
1.5%
398
423
448
473
497
523
547
5.3%
345
337
370
382
381
392
410
427
444
460
478
496
3.9%
385
397
405
415
423
433
442
2.2%
350
370
389
410
427
444
462
4.2%
327
313
328
353
346
344
360
372
386
399
412
425
3.0%
338
348
353
361
366
373
380
1.3%
Released Issue
Page 61
IFR Movements
(thousands)
Spain
2008
H
B
Sweden
Switzerland
Ukraine
UK
BLUE MED FAB
Page 62
2017
2018
2019
. 1,501 1,547
1,607
1,672
1,729
1,799
1,868
2.6%
1,747 1,581 1,608 1,665 1,557 1,477 1,504
1,540
1,583
1,623
1,672
1,720
1.4%
1,463
1,483
1,500
1,527
1,553
-0.0%
723
751
791
825
853
883
912
3.4%
736
654
664
724
724
714
734
762
785
804
824
844
2.2%
703
714
726
739
747
756
765
0.8%
. 1,034 1,069
1,102
1,152
1,174
1,197
1,220
2.2%
1,096 1,018 1,025 1,063 1,045 1,018 1,045
1,070
1,101
1,126
1,152
1,170
1.6%
. 1,001 1,013
1,019
1,033
1,042
1,053
1,066
0.3%
. 1,187 1,312
1,420
1,527
1,632
1,757
1,887
8.5%
822
857
965 1,039 1,066 1,170 1,276
1,351
1,433
1,519
1,612
1,712
7.0%
. 1,152 1,236
1,282
1,336
1,392
1,453
1,517
5.2%
478
511
549
589
626
668
712
6.2%
406
378
429
453
466
471
496
523
551
578
607
638
4.6%
463
481
498
517
533
552
572
3.0%
. 2,210 2,275
2,357
2,447
2,522
2,607
2,680
2.8%
2,514 2,278 2,181 2,241 2,211 2,180 2,224
2,281
2,339
2,390
2,448
2,509
1.8%
2,194
2,234
2,258
2,288
. 2,148 2,165
2,322
0.7%
. 9,418 9,773 10,194 10,657 11,031 11,453 11,858
3.4%
9,954 9,301 9,367 9,641 9,388 9,285 9,542
9,821 10,135 10,405 10,705 11,007
2.3%
. 9,140 9,267
9,371
9,538
9,966
0.9%
. 8,720 9,012
9,376
9,792 10,119 10,479 10,819
3.1%
9,470 8,787 8,805 9,036 8,766 8,593 8,793
9,029
9,303
9,527
9,778 10,026
1.9%
9,659
9,807
8,613
8,751
8,839
8,953
. 8,455 8,534
9,074
0.5%
. 9,559 9,924 10,358 10,835 11,222 11,658 12,079
3.4%
10,083 9,413 9,493 9,784 9,548 9,424 9,689
9,975 10,298 10,576 10,885 11,195
2.3%
. 9,276 9,409
9,517
9,969 10,132
0.9%
. 9,117 9,418
9,799 10,228 10,567 10,939 11,292
3.0%
9,442
9,724
9,955 10,214 10,469
1.9%
9,010
9,154
9,245
9,362
9,487
0.5%
9,833 9,152 9,171 9,407 9,162 8,987 9,193
9,690
9,815
. 8,844 8,927
790
827
882
939
991
1,045
1,098
5.2%
704
644
679
741
768
776
801
835
872
905
940
975
3.5%
763
775
790
811
827
844
861
1.6%
. 2,231 2,312
2,421
2,540
2,641
2,753
2,868
3.7%
2,294 2,207 2,286 2,283 2,227 2,197 2,251
2,323
2,406
2,479
2,560
2,640
2.5%
2,207
2,251
2,285
2,326
2,369
0.9%
Danube FAB
2016
. 1,451 1,456
Baltic FAB
2014
SES
2013
ESRA08
2012
EU27
2011
ESRA02
2010
Turkey
2015
2009
AAGR
2019/
2012
. 2,160 2,181
786
840
897
959
1,018
1,082
1,148
6.3%
690
687
734
758
746
774
815
854
898
938
983
1,029
4.7%
760
789
809
836
858
883
910
2.9%
Released Issue
IFR Movements
(thousands)
FAB CE
2008
H
B
FABEC
South West FAB
2012
2013
2014
2016
2017
2018
2019
. 1,916 2,009
2,117
2,233
2,332
2,433
2,529
4.5%
1,904 1,806 1,864 1,914 1,865 1,885 1,953
2,023
2,101
2,169
2,242
2,313
3.1%
. 1,852 1,890
1,919
1,961
1,992
2,026
2,060
1.4%
. 5,560 5,742
5,940
6,193
6,366
6,557
6,728
2.8%
5,817 5,406 5,431 5,671 5,564 5,480 5,611
5,744
5,909
6,035
6,177
6,311
1.8%
. 5,389 5,442
5,481
5,557
5,598
5,654
5,717
0.4%
. 1,004 1,034
1,084
1,125
1,160
1,196
1,230
3.0%
969
904
924
1,044
1,068
1,088
1,110
1,131
1.8%
988
996
1,010
1,017
1,026
1,035
0.5%
. 1,592 1,641
1,705
1,774
1,834
1,908
1,982
2.7%
1,912 1,733 1,765 1,823 1,644 1,566 1,596
1,633
1,678
1,719
1,769
1,820
1.5%
988 1,001
992 1,011
977
. 1,539 1,545
1,551
1,572
1,589
1,616
1,642
-0.0%
. 2,235 2,301
2,385
2,477
2,554
2,640
2,714
2.8%
2,559 2,316 2,216 2,272 2,238 2,204 2,250
2,308
2,367
2,418
2,478
2,540
1.8%
DK-SE FAB
2011
UK-Ireland FAB
2010
NEFAB
2015
2009
AAGR
2019/
2012
. 2,172 2,190
2,219
2,260
2,284
2,315
2,350
0.7%
994 1,029
1,076
1,117
1,151
1,188
1,222
3.2%
1,031
931
953 1,008
978
982 1,006
1,039
1,067
1,089
1,115
1,139
2.2%
992
1,007
1,016
1,027
1,037
0.8%
967
Released Issue
980
Page 63
Figure 54. Forecast Summary: Annual traffic growth rates 2008-2019

IFR Movements
(growth)
Albania
Armenia
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
4.5%
8.9%
12%
8.0% -6.7%
9.3%
Austria
Belarus
Bulgaria
Croatia
Cyprus
5.0% 5.1% 4.1% 4.3% 4.1%
4.2%
8.7% -1.1% -0.8% 4.9%
3.5% 3.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.2%
3.0%
. -2.6% 3.3%
1.6% 2.4% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1%
1.5%
1.6% 9.8%
9.2% 8.6% 7.9% 8.2% 8.1%
7.6%
8.1% -2.0% -0.4% 8.3%
6.8% 6.8% 6.1% 6.4% 6.4%
5.7%
4.9% 5.1% 4.5% 4.8% 4.8%
4.0%
. -0.3% 4.8%
4.9% 4.9% 3.9% 3.4% 3.2%
3.5%
2.0% -7.6%
2.2%
1.5% -1.8% -1.9% 3.6%
3.3% 3.5% 2.8% 3.1% 2.9%
2.5%
. -3.6% 2.1%
1.3% 1.8% 1.2% 1.5% 1.5%
0.8%
5.0% 8.7%
9.8% 9.5% 8.6% 8.8% 8.8%
8.4%
13%
0.5%
11%
2.8%
5.4%
3.3% 7.4%
7.6% 7.6% 7.1% 7.3% 7.2%
6.8%
1.7% 5.9%
5.6% 6.0% 5.4% 5.6% 5.6%
5.1%
3.1% 6.8%
6.9% 6.8% 5.7% 5.8% 5.7%
5.8%
16% -8.6%
7.7%
15%
6.7%
1.4% 5.2%
4.7% 4.9% 4.2% 4.5% 4.3%
4.2%
. -0.3% 3.6%
2.5% 3.1% 2.5% 2.8% 2.7%
2.4%
0.6% 3.1%
3.4% 4.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.8%
2.9%
0.7% -7.9%
1.5%
5.4% -0.2% -1.0% 2.2%
2.5% 2.9% 2.2% 2.6% 2.4%
2.0%
. -2.6% 0.8%
0.8% 1.5% 0.8% 1.2% 1.4%
0.5%
2.4% 7.1%
5.5% 5.6% 4.7% 4.9% 4.7%
5.0%
8.5%
3.1%
11%
10% -2.6%
0.6% 5.8%
3.8% 4.1% 3.5% 3.7% 3.5%
3.5%
. -1.2% 4.1%
1.7% 2.4% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0%
1.9%
3.5% 8.5%
6.7% 6.7% 6.0% 6.2% 6.1%
6.2%
7.7% -0.2%
5.6%
7.1%
0.2%
1.8% 7.0%
4.7% 5.0% 4.5% 4.8% 4.7%
4.6%
0.0% 5.2%
2.6% 3.2% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0%
2.8%
. -2.2% 3.2%
3.5% 3.6% 3.1% 3.8% 3.6%
2.6%
-0.2%
-13%
3.2%
8.2% -7.7% -3.8% 1.7%
1.5% 1.9% 1.5% 2.1% 2.1%
1.0%
. -5.4% 0.3% -0.6% 0.3% 0.1% 0.7% 0.6%
-0.6%
3.1% 6.2%
5.6% 5.8% 4.7% 4.8% 4.6%
5.0%
6.0%
0.1%
8.7%
8.4% -0.4%
1.4% 5.0%
3.9% 4.2% 3.6% 3.7% 3.5%
3.6%
. -0.4% 3.4%
1.9% 2.6% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1%
2.0%
4.3% 6.8%
5.8% 5.9% 5.1% 5.7% 5.8%
5.6%
6.4% -1.2% -4.1%
2.1% 5.4%
3.9% 4.2% 3.6% 4.1% 4.1%
3.9%
12% -1.7%
0.2% 3.7%
2.0% 2.6% 2.0% 2.5% 2.6%
2.2%
0.6% 5.4%
5.6% 5.7% 4.7% 4.6% 3.9%
4.3%
5.6% -5.0%
3.2%
4.0% -2.3% -1.1% 4.0%
3.7% 3.9% 3.2% 3.1% 3.0%
2.8%
. -2.8% 2.4%
1.6% 2.2% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4%
1.1%
0.7% 4.2%
3.9% 3.7% 2.8% 3.0% 2.5%
3.0%
-0.3% -8.5%
3.3%
5.1% -3.2% -0.6% 3.3%
2.7% 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1%
2.0%
0.9% 1.4% 0.8% 1.0% 0.9%
0.7%
B
L
Page 64
0.8% 6.1%
. -2.3% 6.7%
Denmark
2018
Czech Republic
2017
Canary Islands
2016
Bosnia-Herzegovina
2015
Belgium/Luxembourg
2014
Azerbaijan
2013
AAGR
2019/
2019 2012
. -2.2% 2.1%
Released Issue
IFR Movements
(growth)
Estonia
FYROM
2008
2009
2010
2011
. -2.2% 5.5%
6.9% 7.0% 5.8% 5.1% 4.0%
4.6%
13%
-12%
2.1%
14%
6.1% -4.0% 3.9%
4.2% 4.6% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9%
2.9%
. -5.8% 2.2%
1.9% 2.6% 2.0% 2.3% 2.3%
1.0%
2.9% 4.4%
5.2% 5.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.3%
4.4%
2.0% -0.1% -0.1% -0.4% -9.6%
1.1% 3.1%
3.6% 3.9% 3.3% 3.5% 3.4%
3.1%
Finland
1.6% 2.4% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1%
1.5%
. -3.2% 3.6%
5.3% 5.2% 4.2% 4.3% 4.0%
3.3%
6.3% -7.7%
0.6%
11% -5.8% -4.7% 2.1%
2.9% 3.1% 2.4% 2.7% 2.5%
1.5%
. -6.3% 0.6%
0.7% 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 0.9%
-0.2%
. -0.2% 2.6%
2.7% 4.4% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5%
2.4%
6.2% -1.5% -1.6% 1.9%
2.0% 2.9% 2.0% 2.3% 1.9%
1.6%
Italy
. -3.2% 0.6%
0.5% 1.3% 0.7% 1.0% 1.2%
0.3%
7.0% 9.6%
9.5% 9.0% 8.3% 8.5% 8.4%
8.6%
0.0% -3.6%
22%
16% -1.7%
5.2% 8.1%
7.1% 7.2% 6.7% 6.9% 6.8%
6.9%
3.5% 6.5%
5.2% 5.5% 5.0% 5.3% 5.2%
5.2%
. -0.2% 3.9%
4.1% 4.5% 3.3% 3.4% 3.0%
3.1%
1.4% -7.0%
1.7%
3.2% -1.9% -1.7% 2.9%
2.8% 3.1% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4%
2.0%
. -3.5% 1.3%
0.9% 1.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.1%
0.4%
. -0.2% 4.6%
4.8% 4.8% 3.9% 4.3% 4.2%
3.8%
3.4% -0.8%
2.6%
0.2% -3.5% -1.8% 3.4%
3.3% 3.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.3%
2.6%
. -3.5% 1.8%
1.4% 2.3% 1.8% 2.2% 2.2%
1.2%
4.9% 5.9%
6.1% 6.1% 5.3% 5.3% 5.0%
5.5%
2.4% -0.8% -4.4%
3.1% 4.5%
4.1% 4.3% 3.9% 4.1% 4.0%
4.0%
1.3% 2.8%
2.1% 2.7% 2.1% 2.4% 2.3%
2.2%
2.0% 5.8%
6.8% 6.3% 5.4% 5.5% 5.4%
5.3%
4.8% -7.8%
0.6%
9.0%
11%
0.6% 4.7%
4.9% 4.5% 3.8% 3.9% 3.9%
3.7%
. -0.8% 3.6%
3.2% 3.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.5%
2.3%
0.6% 3.9%
4.2% 4.9% 4.0% 4.3% 2.5%
3.5%
0.6%
1.9% -0.4% -0.9% 3.0%
3.0% 3.4% 2.9% 3.2% 3.2%
2.5%
. -2.4% 1.7%
1.6% 2.2% 1.5% 1.8% 2.0%
1.2%
. -1.1% 2.9%
4.4% 4.8% 3.7% 3.9% 3.8%
3.2%
-2.4% -5.1%
3.9%
0.8% -2.3% -2.5% 1.8%
3.0% 3.4% 2.8% 3.0% 2.9%
2.0%
. -4.1% 0.3%
1.0% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5%
0.5%
1.5% 5.6%
6.6% 6.5% 5.4% 5.3% 4.7%
5.1%
11% -8.4%
4.0%
9.8% -1.0% -0.6% 3.5%
3.6% 3.8% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2%
2.8%
. -2.6% 1.7%
1.2% 1.9% 1.3% 1.5% 1.5%
0.9%
0.1% 3.2%
3.9% 4.1% 3.3% 3.8% 3.6%
3.2%
2.7% -7.2%
5.6%
4.8% -2.7% -1.6% 1.9%
2.1% 2.5% 2.0% 2.4% 2.3%
1.7%
0.1% 1.0% 0.6% 1.0% 1.0%
0.1%
B
L
-12% -3.1%
Lisbon FIR
1.1% -2.3%
Latvia
-0.2% -7.3% -0.2%
Ireland
2018
. -0.7% 1.5%
Iceland
2017
Hungary
2016
Greece
2015
Germany
2014
Georgia
2013
France
2012
AAGR
2019/
2019 2012
. -3.3% 0.4%
Released Issue
Page 65
IFR Movements
(growth)
Lithuania
Malta
Moldova
Morocco
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
12%
-12%
7.3%
4.0% 4.3% 3.6% 3.8% 3.6%
3.3%
. -2.3% 2.9%
1.7% 2.4% 1.7% 2.0% 1.9%
1.5%
9.7% 4.8%
4.7% 4.7% 4.2% 4.6% 4.6%
5.3%
3.5%
0.7%
12%
-15%
20%
8.4% 3.9%
3.5% 3.6% 3.2% 3.5% 3.5%
4.2%
7.1% 2.9%
2.4% 2.7% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4%
3.1%
7.4% 6.2%
6.7% 6.8% 6.4% 6.4% 6.2%
6.6%
18%
6.7%
24%
11%
5.7%
5.6% 5.1%
4.7% 5.2% 4.9% 5.2% 5.2%
5.1%
3.9% 3.7%
2.8% 3.7% 3.3% 3.6% 3.6%
3.5%
1.6% 4.5%
5.2% 5.7% 4.9% 5.5% 5.5%
4.7%
2.5% -5.8%
8.6%
3.9% -8.1% -0.0% 3.2%
3.2% 3.7% 3.2% 3.7% 3.6%
2.9%
. -1.7% 1.8%
1.2% 2.0% 1.6% 2.1% 2.0%
1.3%
1.0% 3.1%
3.7% 3.9% 3.1% 3.4% 2.0%
2.9%
-1.6% -8.6%
1.7%
7.2% -0.2% -0.5% 2.0%
2.6% 2.5% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5%
1.9%
. -2.2% 0.6%
0.9% 1.3% 0.7% 1.1% 1.2%
0.5%
1.5% 1.6%
3.9% 2.0% 1.6% 1.8% 1.7%
2.0%
2.6% -4.4%
2.2%
4.9%
4.2%
0.8% 1.1%
3.1% 1.4% 1.0% 1.1% 1.1%
1.4%
. -0.4% 0.8%
0.7% 1.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.5%
0.5%
2.0% 4.3%
6.5% 6.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.0%
5.0%
10% -7.6%
5.8%
9.4%
4.6%
0.3% 2.8%
4.2% 4.4% 3.8% 3.9% 3.7%
3.3%
. -1.4% 1.2%
2.0% 2.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0%
1.5%
3.9% 6.4%
7.3% 7.2% 6.5% 6.6% 6.4%
6.3%
2.8% -2.3%
8.2%
3.8% -0.0%
2.2% 4.9%
5.1% 5.2% 4.7% 4.9% 4.9%
4.6%
0.4% 3.3%
2.8% 3.4% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0%
2.7%
1.2% 3.9%
4.6% 4.9% 3.8% 4.1% 3.9%
3.8%
6.5% -2.6%
4.5%
4.3% -3.9% -0.2% 3.0%
3.3% 3.5% 2.7% 3.1% 2.9%
2.6%
Serbia&Montenegro
Slovakia
. -1.7% 1.8%
1.8% 2.1% 1.4% 1.8% 1.8%
1.3%
1.3% 5.7%
5.4% 5.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.5%
4.5%
8.6%
3.3%
5.9%
2.7% -4.1% -0.4% 4.4%
3.7% 4.1% 3.5% 3.7% 3.5%
3.2%
. -2.2% 2.7%
1.7% 2.4% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%
1.5%
4.6% 6.1%
5.9% 5.7% 5.1% 5.1% 4.7%
5.3%
6.4% -2.4%
9.9%
3.1% -0.3%
2.9% 4.7%
4.0% 4.1% 3.6% 3.9% 3.8%
3.9%
Slovenia
1.1% 3.1%
2.0% 2.5% 2.0% 2.2% 2.2%
2.2%
1.1% 5.8%
5.2% 5.3% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9%
4.2%
6.8% -4.2%
4.8%
7.5% -2.0% -0.5% 4.6%
3.5% 3.8% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2%
3.0%
Spain
. -2.3% 3.0%
1.5% 2.1% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8%
1.3%
. -3.6% 3.0%
3.9% 4.1% 3.4% 4.0% 3.9%
2.6%
-1.8% -9.5%
1.8%
3.6% -6.5% -5.2% 1.9%
2.3% 2.8% 2.5% 3.0% 2.9%
1.4%
0.5% 1.4% 1.1% 1.8% 1.7%
-0.0%
B
L
Page 66
2018
1.0% -0.4% 4.7%
Santa Maria FIR
2017
13%
Romania
2016
5.3%
Poland
2015
6.6% 6.5% 5.4% 5.5% 5.1%
Norway
2014
1.6% 6.4%
Netherlands
2013
AAGR
2019/
2019 2012
. -6.8% 0.4%
Released Issue
IFR Movements
(growth)
Sweden
Switzerland
2008
2009
2010
2011
3.9%
-11%
1.5%
0.3% -7.1%
0.7%
Turkey
Ukraine
9.1% -0.1% -1.3% 2.7%
3.8% 3.1% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4%
2.2%
. -2.9% 1.6%
1.7% 1.8% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2%
0.8%
. -1.0% 3.4%
3.1% 4.6% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9%
2.2%
3.6% -1.7% -2.5% 2.6%
2.3% 3.0% 2.3% 2.2% 1.6%
1.6%
11%
8.2% 7.6% 6.9% 7.7% 7.4%
8.5%
8.6%
4.2%
13%
7.6%
2.6%
9.8% 9.1%
5.9% 6.0% 6.0% 6.1% 6.2%
7.0%
8.0% 7.3%
3.7% 4.3% 4.2% 4.3% 4.4%
5.2%
2.6% 6.8%
7.5% 7.2% 6.4% 6.7% 6.6%
6.2%
8.7% -6.9%
14%
5.5%
2.9%
1.0% 5.4%
5.4% 5.4% 4.8% 5.1% 5.1%
4.6%
11%
. -0.6% 3.9%
3.4% 3.8% 3.2% 3.5% 3.5%
3.0%
. -0.0% 2.9%
3.6% 3.8% 3.1% 3.3% 2.8%
2.8%
2.8% -1.4% -1.4% 2.0%
2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 2.4% 2.5%
1.8%
-1.4% -9.4% -4.3%
. -2.9% 0.8%
1.4% 1.8% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5%
0.7%
0.3% 3.8%
4.3% 4.5% 3.5% 3.8% 3.5%
3.4%
0.4% -6.6%
0.7%
2.9% -2.6% -1.1% 2.8%
2.9% 3.2% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%
2.3%
. -2.6% 1.4%
1.1% 1.8% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6%
0.9%
. -0.5% 3.3%
4.0% 4.4% 3.3% 3.6% 3.2%
3.1%
0.3% -7.2%
0.2%
2.6% -3.0% -2.0% 2.3%
2.7% 3.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5%
1.9%
. -3.6% 0.9%
0.9% 1.6% 1.0% 1.3% 1.4%
0.5%
0.1% 3.8%
4.4% 4.6% 3.6% 3.9% 3.6%
3.4%
0.4% -6.6%
0.8%
3.1% -2.4% -1.3% 2.8%
3.0% 3.2% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8%
2.3%
. -2.9% 1.4%
1.2% 1.8% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6%
0.9%
. -0.5% 3.3%
4.1% 4.4% 3.3% 3.5% 3.2%
3.0%
0.4% -6.9%
0.2%
2.6% -2.6% -1.9% 2.3%
2.7% 3.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5%
1.9%
. -3.5% 0.9%
0.9% 1.6% 1.0% 1.3% 1.3%
0.5%
2.7% 4.7%
6.6% 6.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.1%
5.2%
11% -8.6%
5.5%
9.2%
3.6%
1.0% 3.2%
4.3% 4.4% 3.8% 3.9% 3.7%
3.5%
. -0.7% 1.6%
2.0% 2.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0%
1.6%
0.2% 3.6%
4.7% 4.9% 4.0% 4.3% 4.2%
3.7%
3.6% -0.1% -2.4% -1.3% 2.5%
3.2% 3.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.1%
2.5%
-0.8% -3.8%
. -3.0% 1.0%
1.2% 2.0% 1.5% 1.8% 1.8%
0.9%
5.3% 6.8%
6.9% 6.9% 6.1% 6.2% 6.1%
6.3%
6.9% -0.4%
6.7%
3.3% -1.5%
3.6% 5.4%
4.8% 5.1% 4.5% 4.8% 4.7%
4.7%
1.9% 3.7%
2.6% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 3.0%
2.9%
2.7% 4.9%
5.4% 5.5% 4.5% 4.3% 3.9%
4.5%
3.1% -5.2%
3.2%
2.7% -2.6%
1.1% 3.6%
3.6% 3.9% 3.2% 3.3% 3.2%
3.1%
. -0.7% 2.0%
1.6% 2.2% 1.6% 1.7% 1.7%
1.4%
B
L
3.4%
FAB CE
5.3% 4.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.2%
0.3%
Danube FAB
. -0.0% 3.8%
0.6% 1.4% 0.8% 1.1% 1.2%
BLUE MED FAB
2018
. -4.2% 1.2%
Baltic FAB
2017
SES
2016
ESRA08
2015
EU27
2014
ESRA02
2013
UK
2012
AAGR
2019/
2019 2012
Released Issue
Page 67
IFR Movements
(growth)
FABEC
H
B
NEFAB
0.5% -7.1%
0.5%
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
. -0.1% 3.3%
3.4% 4.3% 2.8% 3.0% 2.6%
2.8%
4.4% -1.9% -1.5% 2.4%
2.4% 2.9% 2.1% 2.4% 2.2%
1.8%
. -3.1% 1.0%
0.7% 1.4% 0.7% 1.0% 1.1%
0.4%
0.3% 3.0%
4.9% 3.8% 3.1% 3.1% 2.8%
3.0%
4.5% -6.6%
2.1%
7.0%
1.3% -0.9% 1.9%
3.3% 2.3% 1.8% 2.0% 1.9%
1.8%
. -2.4% 1.1%
0.8% 1.4% 0.7% 0.9% 0.8%
0.5%
. -3.2% 3.1%
3.9% 4.1% 3.4% 4.0% 3.9%
2.7%
-1.8% -9.4%
1.8%
3.3% -9.8% -4.8% 1.9%
2.3% 2.8% 2.4% 3.0% 2.8%
1.5%
. -6.4% 0.4%
0.4% 1.3% 1.1% 1.7% 1.7%
-0.0%
. -0.1% 3.0%
3.6% 3.8% 3.1% 3.4% 2.8%
2.8%
2.5% -1.5% -1.5% 2.1%
2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 2.5% 2.5%
1.8%
-1.5% -9.5% -4.3%
. -2.9% 0.8%
1.4% 1.8% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5%
0.7%
1.7% 3.5%
4.5% 3.9% 3.1% 3.2% 2.9%
3.2%
2.2% -9.7%
2.4%
5.7% -3.0%
0.4% 2.5%
3.2% 2.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.2%
2.2%
. -1.1% 1.4%
1.2% 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0%
0.8%
B
L
Page 68
2011
DK-SE FAB
2010
UK-Ireland FAB
2009
South West FAB
2008
AAGR
2019/
2019 2012
Released Issue
ANNEX F.
STATE BY STATE TWO-YEAR SERVICE UNITS FORECAST
Figure 55. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2013-2014.
2012 Actual
TSU
2,231,537
2013
STATFOR
Forecast TSU
2,199,537
2013/2012
Forecast
Growth
-1.4%
2014
STATFOR
Forecast TSU
2,244,226
2014/2013
Forecast
Growth
2.0%
2013 States
Forecast
TSU
2,349,875
2013
STATFOR
/ States
-6.4%
-10.4%
EB
Charging Area
Belgium/Luxembourg
ED
Germany
12,513,068
12,281,407
-1.9%
12,587,880
2.5%
13,708,080
LF
France
17,515,047
17,387,984
-0.7%
17,757,541
2.1%
18,436,674
-5.7%
EG
UK
9,607,736
9,490,017
-1.2%
9,692,689
2.1%
10,667,227
-11.0%
EH
Netherlands
2,587,398
2,590,915
0.1%
2,638,979
1.9%
2,733,000
-5.2%
EI
Ireland
3,805,985
3,789,698
-0.4%
3,908,944
3.1%
3,906,000
-3.0%
LS
Switzerland
1,398,574
1,357,522
-2.9%
1,393,271
2.6%
1,527,979
-11.2%
LP
Lisbon FIR
2,782,280
2,785,454
0.1%
2,849,882
2.3%
2,984,808
-6.7%
LO
Austria
2,469,156
2,416,561
-2.1%
2,500,809
3.5%
2,814,000
-14.1%
LE
Spain
8,443,969
8,083,571
-4.3%
8,258,767
2.2%
9,626,232
-16.0%
GC
Canary Islands
1,599,207
1,574,964
-1.5%
1,620,993
2.9%
1,746,350
-9.8%
AZ
Santa Maria FIR
3,874,372
3,809,920
-1.7%
3,936,252
3.3%
4,214,008
-9.6%
LG
Greece
4,357,569
4,344,504
-0.3%
4,545,947
4.6%
4,860,000
-10.6%
LT
Turkey
9,812,755
10,569,079
7.7%
11,436,035
8.2%
10,767,830
-1.8%
LM
Malta
641,289
700,012
9.2%
737,074
5.3%
588,338
19.0%
LI
Italy
8,139,130
8,016,854
-1.5%
8,182,882
2.1%
8,780,867
-8.7%
LC
Cyprus
1,303,262
1,340,880
2.9%
1,407,552
5.0%
1,320,000
1.6%
LH
Hungary
2,023,434
2,047,809
1.2%
2,151,820
5.1%
2,154,532
-5.0%
EN
Norway
1,845,568
1,876,929
1.7%
1,909,580
1.7%
1,797,642
4.4%
EK
Denmark
1,428,735
1,399,110
-2.1%
1,456,191
4.1%
1,572,317
-11.0%
LJ
Slovenia
425,205
424,131
-0.3%
446,537
5.3%
441,730
-4.0%
LR
Romania
3,575,195
3,657,127
2.3%
3,840,963
5.0%
3,802,000
-3.8%
LK
Czech Republic
2,304,641
2,314,780
0.4%
2,399,979
3.7%
2,419,960
-4.3%
ES
Sweden
3,126,197
3,090,765
-1.1%
3,169,762
2.6%
3,302,000
-6.4%
LZ
Slovakia
921,643
960,502
4.2%
1,006,008
4.7%
977,545
-1.7%
LD
Croatia
1,678,634
1,716,540
2.3%
1,803,630
5.1%
1,762,027
-2.6%
LB
Bulgaria
2,020,149
2,080,683
3.0%
2,218,095
6.6%
2,043,942
1.8%
LW
FYROM
174,312
175,854
0.9%
180,833
2.8%
190,400
-7.6%
LU
Moldova
205,863
218,275
6.0%
228,756
4.8%
218,000
0.1%
EF
Finland
790,296
754,759
-4.5%
771,147
2.2%
908,000
-16.9%
LA
Albania
442,921
435,425
-1.7%
456,335
4.8%
469,400
-7.2%
LQ
Bosnia-Herzegovina
680,299
681,418
0.2%
716,586
5.2%
716,646
-4.9%
UD
Armenia
153,559
161,053
4.9%
171,485
6.5%
159,993
0.7%
LY
Belgrade
1,718,633
1,726,742
0.5%
1,788,399
3.6%
1,799,947
-4.1%
EP
Poland
3,854,458
3,928,973
1.9%
4,080,509
3.9%
4,021,000
-2.3%
EY
Lithuania
429,631
426,990
-0.6%
446,153
4.5%
448,700
-4.8%
EE
Estonia
724,607
735,116
1.5%
758,841
3.2%
EV
Latvia
707,109
710,488
0.5%
739,322
4.1%
731,000
-2.8%
4,587,862
4,740,037
3.3%
4,975,683
5.0%
UK
Ukraine
Released Issue
Page 69
CRCO88
Charging
Area
CRCO88
2012 Actual
TSU
68,828,330
2013
STATFOR
Forecast TSU
67,767,550
2013/2012
Forecast
Growth
-1.5%
2014
STATFOR
Forecast TSU
69,390,231
2014/2013
Forecast
Growth
2.4%
2013 States
Forecast
TSU
74,714,232
2013
STATFOR
/ States
-9.3%
ESRA02
ESRA02
113,602,206
113,456,142
-0.1%
117,283,024
3.4%
122,621,363
-7.5%
CRCO11
CRCO11
121,588,815
121,527,231
-0.1%
125,681,812
3.4%
130,968,049
PScheme
PScheme
103,572,074
102,768,041
-0.8%
105,722,342
2.9%
110,669,798
-7.8%
TOTAL
Total
126,901,283
127,002,385
0.1%
131,416,336
3.5%
130,968,049
-7.2%
(A)
Includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic. 72.800 service unites concerned for 2012.
Estimated number for the coming years is 75.000 per year.
(B)
The charging zone over Serbia and Montenegro has been renamed Belgrade (Annex 1 of the Conditions of Application of the
Route Charges System, Text approved by the enlarged Commission and entered into force on 20.5.2011).
(C)
Latvia has only joined EUROCONTROL member states in 2011. Before that date, only yearly data was available for the TSU
(D)
Ukraine is not part of the CRCO but has asked STATFOR to produce an individual forecast for them as they will not have this
capacity in 2012. In the TOTAL column the 2012 states forecast and the percentage difference between, the 2012 States and
STATFOR forecast does not account for Ukraine
(E)
Percentage corrected for missing State Forecasts for Estonia (PScheme and Total) and Ukraine (only Total)
Page 70
Released Issue
-7.2%
Figure 56. Forecast Summary: Annual chargeable en-route service units 20132014.
2012 Actual
TSU
2,231,537
2013
STATFOR
Forecast TSU
2,199,537
2014
STATFOR
Forecast
TSU
2,244,226
2012
Actual
Exempted
SU in %
1.1%
2012 Actual
Chargeable
SU in %
98.9%
2013
Chargeable
SU
Estimate
2,176,000
2014
Chargeable
SU
Estimate
2,220,200
EB
Charging Area
Belgium/Luxembourg
ED
LF
EG
EH
EI
LS
LP
LO
LE
GC
AZ
LG
LT
LM
LI
LC
LH
EN
EK
LJ
LR
LK
ES
LZ
LD
LB
LW
LU
EF
LA
LQ
UD
LY
EP
EY
EE
EV
UK
Germany
France
UK
Netherlands
Ireland
Switzerland
Lisbon FIR
Austria
Spain
Canary Islands
Santa Maria FIR
Greece
Turkey
(B)
Malta
(B)
Italy
Cyprus
Hungary
Norway
Denmark
Slovenia
Romania
Czech Republic
Sweden
Slovakia
Croatia
Bulgaria
FYROM
Moldova
Finland
Albania
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Armenia
Belgrade
Poland
Lithuania
Estonia
Latvia
Ukraine
12,513,068
17,515,047
9,607,736
2,587,398
3,805,985
1,398,574
2,782,280
2,469,156
8,443,969
1,599,207
3,874,372
4,357,569
9,812,755
641,289
8,139,130
1,303,262
2,023,434
1,845,568
1,428,735
425,205
3,575,195
2,304,641
3,126,197
921,643
1,678,634
2,020,149
174,312
205,863
790,296
442,921
680,299
153,559
1,718,633
3,854,458
429,631
724,607
707,109
4,587,862
12,281,407
17,387,984
9,490,017
2,590,915
3,789,698
1,357,522
2,785,454
2,416,561
8,083,571
1,574,964
3,809,920
4,344,504
10,569,079
700,012
8,016,854
1,340,880
2,047,809
1,876,929
1,399,110
424,131
3,657,127
2,314,780
3,090,765
960,502
1,716,540
2,080,683
175,854
218,275
754,759
435,425
681,418
161,053
1,726,742
3,928,973
426,990
735,116
710,488
4,740,037
12,587,880
17,757,541
9,692,689
2,638,979
3,908,944
1,393,271
2,849,882
2,500,809
8,258,767
1,620,993
3,936,252
4,545,947
11,436,035
737,074
8,182,882
1,407,552
2,151,820
1,909,580
1,456,191
446,537
3,840,963
2,399,979
3,169,762
1,006,008
1,803,630
2,218,095
180,833
228,756
771,147
456,335
716,586
171,485
1,788,399
4,080,509
446,153
758,841
739,322
4,975,683
1.0%
1.0%
1.4%
1.1%
1.4%
0.3%
1.3%
0.2%
1.1%
0.7%
2.7%
2.1%
1.6%
4.0%
2.0%
1.1%
1.9%
1.1%
0.7%
0.3%
2.3%
2.5%
0.4%
2.0%
0.2%
0.9%
0.1%
0.1%
0.9%
0.4%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.4%
0.3%
0.0%
0.3%
0.2%
99.0%
99.0%
98.6%
98.9%
98.6%
99.7%
98.7%
99.8%
98.9%
99.3%
97.3%
97.9%
98.4%
96.0%
98.0%
98.9%
98.1%
98.9%
99.3%
99.7%
97.7%
97.5%
99.6%
98.0%
99.8%
99.1%
99.9%
99.9%
99.1%
99.6%
99.9%
99.9%
99.9%
99.6%
99.7%
100.0%
99.7%
99.8%
12,161,300
17,220,700
9,353,200
2,561,700
3,737,200
1,353,900
2,748,900
2,411,600
7,996,800
1,564,600
3,708,000
4,251,300
10,402,100
672,200
7,853,500
1,326,300
2,009,400
1,856,100
1,389,500
422,700
3,574,000
2,256,500
3,077,500
941,300
1,712,400
2,061,400
175,700
218,200
748,200
433,500
680,900
160,900
1,725,400
3,912,700
425,500
734,900
708,300
4,731,400
12,464,800
17,586,700
9,552,900
2,609,200
3,854,800
1,389,500
2,812,400
2,495,600
8,170,100
1,610,400
3,830,900
4,448,400
11,255,400
707,800
8,016,200
1,392,200
2,111,500
1,888,400
1,446,200
445,000
3,753,700
2,339,500
3,156,100
985,900
1,799,200
2,197,600
180,600
228,600
764,500
454,300
716,000
171,300
1,787,000
4,063,600
444,600
758,600
737,000
4,966,600
CRCO88
ESRA02
CRCO11
PScheme
TOTAL
CRCO88
ESRA02
CRCO11
PScheme
Total
68,828,330
113,602,206
121,588,815
103,572,074
126,901,283
67,767,550
113,456,142
121,527,231
102,768,041
127,002,385
69,390,231
117,283,024
125,681,812
105,722,342
131,416,336
1.1%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
98.9%
98.7%
98.7%
98.8%
98.8%
66,994,100
111,947,800
119,994,100
101,510,800
125,458,600
68,598,300
115,723,800
124,096,200
104,429,000
129,818,900
(A)
(A)
Includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic.72.800 service units concerned for 2012.
Estimated number for the coming years is 75.000 per year.
(B)
Note that the Chargeable SU in % have been returned to levels before2011. In 2011 it was for Malta equal to 88% and for
Italy equal to 96% because of increased military traffic.
Released Issue
Page 71
ANNEX G.
SEVEN-YEAR SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE
This annex shows the EUROCONTROL medium-term forecast of service units per individual
charging area. Forecasts for Armenia, Lithuania, Poland and Belgrade and Ukraine must be
treated with extra care as they are based on a limited set of historical data.
Figure 57. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2008-2019.
Total service units
(thousands)
Albania
Armenia
Austria
Growth
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2019/
2012
444
470
494
519
540
563
586
32%
325
355
404
448
443
435
456
472
491
507
524
541
22%
427
441
449
460
468
478
488
10%
167
181
197
210
225
240
258
68%
111
146
170
154
161
171
182
191
201
212
224
46%
155
162
169
175
181
188
196
28%
2,468
2,595
2,726
2,862
2,976
3,091
3,205
30%
2,566
2,424
2,449
2,519
2,469
2,417
2,501
2,585
2,678
2,757
2,846
2,932
19%
2,364
2,401
2,434
2,482
2,514
2,555
2,596
5%
Belgium/Luxembourg H
2,229
2,296
2,372
2,476
2,547
2,626
2,701
21%
2,220
2,079
2,115
2,212
2,232
2,200
2,244
2,299
2,365
2,418
2,480
2,539
14%
2,169
2,187
2,205
2,238
2,258
2,286
2,318
4%
Belgrade
Bosnia-Herzegovina
Bulgaria
Canary Islands
Croatia
Cyprus
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Page 72
1,767
1,861
1,960
2,068
2,162
2,263
2,365
38%
1,748
1,783
1,819
1,831
1,719
1,727
1,788
1,855
1,932
1,999
2,073
2,147
25%
1,686
1,712
1,744
1,787
1,822
1,862
1,903
11%
699
744
785
829
869
912
955
40%
525
579
637
717
680
681
717
743
773
800
829
859
26%
663
689
700
716
730
745
760
12%
2,116
2,275
2,421
2,578
2,726
2,888
3,056
51%
1,747
1,798
1,840
2,019
2,020
2,081
2,218
2,321
2,435
2,541
2,660
2,783
38%
2,044
2,157
2,212
2,283
2,344
2,413
2,485
23%
1,605
1,676
1,734
1,795
1,851
1,920
1,989
24%
1,713
1,492
1,540
1,666
1,599
1,575
1,621
1,646
1,677
1,702
1,738
1,774
11%
1,545
1,566
1,559
1,565
1,568
1,580
1,590
-1%
1,750
1,865
1,966
2,077
2,171
2,273
2,376
42%
1,271
1,298
1,451
1,634
1,679
1,717
1,804
1,871
1,948
2,017
2,091
2,163
29%
1,683
1,739
1,770
1,814
1,849
1,888
1,928
15%
1,361
1,445
1,527
1,617
1,698
1,792
1,892
45%
1,311
1,273
1,352
1,347
1,303
1,341
1,408
1,462
1,524
1,580
1,643
1,709
31%
1,322
1,370
1,399
1,436
1,466
1,502
1,541
18%
2,358
2,476
2,608
2,750
2,872
2,998
3,106
35%
2,019
2,023
2,190
2,305
2,305
2,315
2,400
2,485
2,579
2,661
2,741
2,820
22%
2,271
2,319
2,355
2,407
2,442
2,476
2,509
9%
1,422
1,496
1,556
1,614
1,660
1,711
1,754
23%
1,474
1,359
1,411
1,470
1,429
1,399
1,456
1,498
1,537
1,568
1,604
1,638
15%
1,375
1,413
1,428
1,451
1,464
1,480
1,495
5%
752
789
842
900
953
1,001
1,041
44%
697
632
627
704
725
735
759
791
827
860
895
930
28%
719
729
743
763
779
797
815
13%
Released Issue
Total service units

(thousands)
FYROM
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lisbon FIR
Lithuania
Malta
Moldova
Netherlands
Norway
Growth
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2019/
2012
178
185
195
205
214
223
233
34%
182
180
183
194
174
176
181
187
195
201
208
215
23%
173
176
179
183
186
190
195
12%
769
796
837
880
917
956
993
26%
791
727
740
832
790
755
771
796
822
843
867
890
13%
740
746
755
768
776
785
794
0%
17,561
18,078
18,637
19,461
19,976
20,564
21,130
21%
18,034
16,780
16,637
17,691
17,515
17,388
17,758
18,149
18,681
19,090
19,558
19,983
14%
17,209
17,384
17,504
17,759
17,917
18,139
18,386
5%
12,415
12,858
13,400
14,011
14,478
14,981
15,434
23%
12,749
11,913
12,294
12,740
12,513
12,281
12,588
12,950
13,361
13,695
14,059
14,406
15%
12,138
12,278
12,408
12,616
12,739
12,889
13,044
4%
4,439
4,720
4,959
5,219
5,447
5,701
5,961
37%
4,258
4,139
4,454
4,546
4,358
4,345
4,546
4,708
4,899
5,069
5,253
5,440
25%
4,249
4,367
4,443
4,555
4,645
4,752
4,862
12%
2,094
2,225
2,365
2,512
2,648
2,790
2,929
45%
2,092
2,038
2,091
2,067
2,023
2,048
2,152
2,245
2,346
2,439
2,542
2,645
31%
2,001
2,076
2,124
2,185
2,234
2,290
2,346
16%
3,839
3,988
4,162
4,371
4,548
4,746
4,872
28%
3,823
3,561
3,615
3,771
3,806
3,790
3,909
4,033
4,174
4,300
4,439
4,582
20%
3,739
3,822
3,892
3,983
4,049
4,125
4,210
11%
8,226
8,543
8,934
9,367
9,728
10,123
10,517
29%
8,660
8,145
8,621
8,370
8,139
8,017
8,183
8,432
8,724
8,973
9,251
9,518
17%
7,805
7,808
7,891
8,038
8,145
8,278
8,409
3%
724
770
820
872
919
967
1,012
43%
656
596
634
702
707
710
739
765
794
819
847
874
24%
697
710
719
733
743
754
766
8%
2,824
2,925
3,044
3,172
3,283
3,415
3,544
27%
2,677
2,501
2,624
2,821
2,782
2,785
2,850
2,918
2,998
3,064
3,146
3,226
16%
2,746
2,774
2,789
2,824
2,849
2,887
2,925
5%
438
468
499
531
561
592
622
45%
384
341
371
420
430
427
446
465
485
503
522
541
26%
416
425
433
444
453
462
472
10%
718
766
813
864
912
965
1,021
59%
422
416
487
506
641
700
737
770
808
842
880
919
43%
683
708
730
755
776
801
826
29%
225
242
255
270
286
303
321
56%
115
139
181
195
206
218
229
238
249
260
272
284
38%
211
216
221
228
235
242
250
21%
2,629
2,710
2,814
2,926
3,018
3,122
3,199
24%
2,621
2,426
2,476
2,595
2,587
2,591
2,639
2,711
2,783
2,843
2,916
2,990
16%
2,552
2,563
2,593
2,634
2,657
2,690
2,725
5%
1,911
1,964
2,055
2,120
2,179
2,245
2,311
25%
1,537
1,495
1,583
1,713
1,846
1,877
1,910
1,978
2,023
2,059
2,100
2,142
16%
1,842
1,854
1,883
1,914
1,931
1,952
1,972
7%
Released Issue
Page 73
Total service units

(thousands)
Poland
Romania
Santa Maria FIR
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
UK
Ukraine
ESRA02
CRCO11
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2019/
2012
3,971
4,168
4,419
4,686
4,921
5,170
5,417
41%
3,230
3,092
3,313
3,676
3,854
3,929
4,081
4,247
4,426
4,586
4,761
4,932
28%
3,886
3,989
4,069
4,172
4,253
4,344
4,434
15%
3,735
3,979
4,255
4,539
4,814
5,111
5,418
52%
3,240
3,133
3,414
3,533
3,575
3,657
3,841
4,031
4,232
4,422
4,631
4,849
36%
3,578
3,698
3,805
3,931
4,038
4,157
4,281
20%
3,888
4,036
4,222
4,444
4,621
4,826
5,025
30%
3,484
3,479
3,696
3,983
3,874
3,810
3,936
4,071
4,228
4,355
4,502
4,646
20%
3,731
3,830
3,908
4,004
4,071
4,155
4,240
9%
979
1,044
1,104
1,165
1,225
1,288
1,348
46%
762
768
856
900
922
961
1,006
1,045
1,087
1,127
1,170
1,215
32%
942
968
986
1,011
1,032
1,055
1,079
17%
433
463
486
512
533
555
577
36%
342
331
365
425
425
424
447
462
480
495
512
529
24%
415
429
436
445
453
461
470
10%
8,200
8,479
8,809
9,180
9,493
9,877
10,259
21%
9,129
8,358
8,642
9,099
8,444
8,084
8,259
8,456
8,702
8,918
9,186
9,451
12%
7,965
8,023
8,067
8,183
8,278
8,421
8,565
1%
3,136
3,257
3,431
3,583
3,708
3,842
3,967
27%
3,271
2,906
2,950
3,185
3,126
3,091
3,170
3,294
3,398
3,482
3,574
3,664
17%
3,043
3,079
3,138
3,199
3,236
3,281
3,324
6%
1,376
1,426
1,473
1,540
1,579
1,623
1,664
19%
1,472
1,396
1,409
1,431
1,399
1,358
1,393
1,427
1,471
1,506
1,543
1,574
13%
1,339
1,356
1,366
1,386
1,399
1,416
1,434
3%
10,724
11,732
12,629
13,543
14,426
15,461
16,540
69%
7,629
8,086
8,923
9,618
9,813
10,569
11,436
12,071
12,760
13,471
14,241
15,057
53%
10,412
11,122
11,519
11,985
12,447
12,944
13,471
37%
9,617
9,905
10,282
10,706
11,050
11,434
11,748
22%
11,044
9,914
9,480
9,860
9,608
9,490
9,693
9,961
10,241
10,480
10,754
11,032
15%
9,361
9,461
9,602
9,782
9,894
10,036
10,192
6%
4,824
5,138
5,505
5,890
6,259
6,668
7,096
55%
3,903
3,727
4,188
4,465
4,588
4,740
4,976
5,233
5,508
5,770
6,062
6,365
39%
4,657
4,811
4,967
5,152
5,312
5,495
5,686
24%
. 115,227 120,446 126,070 132,360 137,587 143,449 149,091
31%
112,655 106,577 110,070 115,248 113,602 113,456 117,283 121,104 125,405 129,178 133,408 137,615
21%
. 111,646 113,889 115,604 118,043 119,891 122,127 124,460
10%
68,652
70,972
73,674
76,946
79,422
82,224
84,771
23%
71,532
66,323
66,977
70,390
68,828
67,768
69,390
71,208
73,360
75,129
77,169
79,135
15%
66,859
67,644
68,328
69,456
70,193
71,179
72,225
5%
. 123,438 129,108 135,243 142,077 147,783 154,155 160,305
32%
119,521 113,434 117,393 123,211 121,589 121,527 125,682 129,834 134,498 138,595 143,178 147,733
22%
H
B
L
Page 74
2008
B
CRCO88
Growth
. 119,576 122,018 123,888 126,531 128,540 130,960 133,479
Released Issue
10%
Total service units

(thousands)
PScheme
Total
Growth
2008
2009
2010
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2019/
2012
.
104,941
. 101,153 102,659 103,971 105,942 107,330 109,063 110,864
7%
. 129,014 135,036 141,590 148,867 154,995 161,824 168,442
33%
124,122 117,793 122,208 128,380 126,901 127,002 131,416 135,858 140,834 145,225 150,135 155,029
22%
. 104,347 108,581 113,382 118,812 123,221 128,091 132,688
28%
98,057 100,579 105,126 103,572 102,768 105,722 108,934 112,558 115,644 119,120 122,526
18%
2013
2012
2011
. 124,951 127,558 129,598 132,446 134,631 137,252 139,980
(a) Total in 2008 does not include Armenia for which data for this year are not available.
(b)Total from 2009 includes TSU of all countries
(c) CRCO11 designates the sum over all the states participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2012 of all TSU
either measured or forecasted for the corresponding year.
(d) PScheme stands for the sum over all the 29 states that are currently involved in the EU-wide performance target setting (27
EU member states plus Norway and Switzerland).
Figure 58. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units growth 20082019.
AAGR
2019/
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2012
TSU Annual growth

2008
Albania
Armenia
Austria
2009
2010
.
2011
.
2012
3.8%
0.2% 6.0% 5.0% 5.1% 4.1% 4.3% 4.1%
4.1%
-1.0% -1.7% 4.8% 3.5% 3.9% 3.3% 3.4% 3.2%
2.9%
. -3.6% 3.4% 1.7% 2.4% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1%
1.4%
8.8% 8.5% 8.6% 6.8% 6.9% 7.0% 7.2%
7.7%
B
L
. 31.5% 16.1%
-9.5%
4.9% 6.5% 6.3% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 5.6%
5.6%
1.0% 4.6% 4.2% 3.3% 3.7% 3.9% 4.2%
3.5%
9.1% 13.9% 10.8%
. -0.1% 5.2% 5.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.7%
3.8%
2.3%
-5.5%
1.0%
2.9%
-2.0% -2.1% 3.5% 3.4% 3.6% 3.0% 3.2% 3.0%
2.5%
. -4.3% 1.5% 1.4% 1.9% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6%
0.7%
Belgium/Luxembourg H
. -0.1% 3.0% 3.3% 4.4% 2.9% 3.1% 2.8%
2.8%
1.7%
-6.4%
1.7%
4.6%
0.9% -1.4% 2.0% 2.5% 2.9% 2.2% 2.6% 2.4%
1.9%
. -2.8% 0.8% 0.9% 1.5% 0.9% 1.3% 1.4%
0.5%
Belgrade
Bosnia-Herzegovina
2.8% 5.3% 5.3% 5.5% 4.5% 4.7% 4.5%
4.7%
90.0%
2.0%
2.0%
0.6%
-6.1%
0.5% 3.6% 3.7% 4.1% 3.5% 3.7% 3.6%
3.2%
. -1.9% 1.6% 1.8% 2.5% 1.9% 2.2% 2.2%
1.5%
2.8% 6.4% 5.6% 5.6% 4.8% 4.9% 4.7%
5.0%
9.1% 10.3% 10.1% 12.5%
-5.1%
0.2% 5.2% 3.7% 4.0% 3.5% 3.6% 3.5%
3.4%
B
Bulgaria
Canary Islands
. -2.5% 3.8% 1.7% 2.3% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0%
1.6%
4.8% 7.5% 6.4% 6.5% 5.7% 5.9% 5.8%
6.1%
7.5%
3.0%
2.3%
9.7%
0.1%
3.0% 6.6% 4.6% 4.9% 4.4% 4.7% 4.6%
4.7%
1.2% 5.5% 2.6% 3.2% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0%
3.0%
0.4% 4.4% 3.4% 3.5% 3.1% 3.7% 3.6%
3.2%
1.3% -12.9%
3.2%
8.2%
-4.0% -1.5% 2.9% 1.5% 1.9% 1.5% 2.1% 2.1%
1.5%
-0.1%
H
B
Croatia
Cyprus
. -3.4% 1.4% -0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.8% 0.7%
4.2% 6.6% 5.4% 5.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.5%
5.1%
5.6%
2.2% 11.8% 12.6%
2.7%
2.3% 5.1% 3.7% 4.1% 3.5% 3.7% 3.5%
3.7%
0.2% 3.3% 1.8% 2.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%
2.0%
11.3%
-2.9%
4.4% 6.2% 5.7% 5.9% 5.0% 5.5% 5.6%
5.5%
6.2% -0.3%
-3.3%
2.9% 5.0% 3.9% 4.2% 3.6% 4.0% 4.0%
3.9%
1.4% 3.6% 2.1% 2.7% 2.1% 2.5% 2.6%
2.4%
Released Issue
Page 75
10%
AAGR
2019/
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2012
TSU Annual growth

2008
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
FYROM
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Ireland
Italy
Latvia
Lisbon FIR
Lithuania
Malta
Moldova
2010
2011
2012
2.3% 5.0% 5.3% 5.4% 4.5% 4.4% 3.6%
4.4%
4.1%
0.2%
8.3%
5.2%
-0.0%
0.4% 3.7% 3.5% 3.8% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9%
2.9%
. -1.5% 2.1% 1.6% 2.2% 1.5% 1.4% 1.3%
1.2%
. -0.5% 5.2% 4.0% 3.7% 2.9% 3.1% 2.5%
3.0%
-0.4%
-7.8%
3.8%
4.2%
-2.8% -2.1% 4.1% 2.9% 2.6% 2.1% 2.3% 2.1%
2.0%
. -3.7% 2.7% 1.1% 1.6% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0%
0.7%
3.8% 5.0% 6.7% 6.9% 5.8% 5.1% 4.0%
5.3%
-9.4% -0.8% 12.3%
2.9%
1.5% 3.2% 4.2% 4.6% 4.0% 4.2% 3.9%
3.6%
7.2%
. -0.8% 1.4% 2.0% 2.7% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3%
1.7%
2.4% 3.9% 5.1% 5.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.3%
4.2%
0.2%
-1.0%
1.7%
5.9% -10.2%
0.9% 2.8% 3.6% 3.9% 3.3% 3.5% 3.4%
3.1%
. -0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 2.4% 1.8% 2.1% 2.1%
1.6%
. -2.6% 3.4% 5.2% 5.1% 4.2% 4.2% 3.9%
3.3%
6.1%
-8.1%
1.7% 12.6%
-5.1% -4.5% 2.2% 3.2% 3.3% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7%
1.7%
. -6.4% 0.9% 1.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2%
0.1%
0.3% 2.9% 3.1% 4.4% 2.6% 2.9% 2.8%
2.7%
-7.0% -0.9%
6.3%
-1.0% -0.7% 2.1% 2.2% 2.9% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2%
1.9%
0.2%
. -1.7% 1.0% 0.7% 1.5% 0.9% 1.2% 1.4%
0.7%
. -0.8% 3.6% 4.2% 4.6% 3.3% 3.5% 3.0%
3.0%
2.7%
-6.6%
3.2%
3.6%
-1.8% -1.9% 2.5% 2.9% 3.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5%
2.0%
. -3.0% 1.1% 1.1% 1.7% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2%
0.6%
1.9% 6.3% 5.1% 5.2% 4.4% 4.7% 4.6%
4.6%
5.2%
-2.8%
7.6%
2.1%
-4.2% -0.3% 4.6% 3.6% 4.1% 3.5% 3.6% 3.6%
3.2%
. -2.5% 2.8% 1.7% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3% 2.3%
1.6%
3.5% 6.3% 6.3% 6.2% 5.4% 5.4% 5.0%
5.4%
2.6% -1.2%
-2.1%
1.2% 5.1% 4.3% 4.5% 4.0% 4.2% 4.1%
3.9%
-0.6%
-2.6%
. -1.1% 3.7% 2.3% 2.9% 2.3% 2.5% 2.4%
2.1%
0.9% 3.9% 4.4% 5.0% 4.1% 4.4% 2.7%
3.6%
0.0%
-6.9%
1.5%
4.3%
0.9% -0.4% 3.1% 3.2% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 3.2%
2.7%
. -1.8% 2.2% 1.8% 2.3% 1.6% 1.9% 2.1%
1.5%
0.5%
-6.0%
4.7%
-9.1%
1.5% 3.6% 4.0% 4.2% 3.5% 4.0% 3.8%
3.5%
1.7%
-6.6%
4.9%
7.5%
-1.4%
. -11.0%
11.9%
23.4% 20.4% 30.7%
H
B
L
Page 76
2009
1.1% 3.9% 4.6% 4.8% 3.9% 4.1% 3.9%
3.7%
-2.8% -1.5% 2.1% 3.0% 3.5% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9%
2.3%
. -4.1% 0.0% 1.1% 1.9% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6%
0.5%
2.4% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 5.3% 5.2% 4.7%
5.3%
6.4% 10.8%
0.7%
0.5% 4.1% 3.5% 3.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.2%
3.1%
. -1.4% 1.8% 1.3% 1.9% 1.3% 1.6% 1.6%
1.2%
5.9% -2.9%
2.1%
0.7%
2.0% 6.7% 6.6% 6.6% 5.5% 5.5% 5.2%
5.4%
2.3% -0.6% 4.5% 4.1% 4.4% 3.7% 3.9% 3.6%
3.4%
. -3.2% 2.2% 1.9% 2.6% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0%
1.3%
. 11.9% 6.8% 6.1% 6.3% 5.5% 5.8% 5.8%
6.9%
8.7% 13.2%
-1.4% 17.0%
0.1% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7% 2.2% 2.7% 2.6%
. -1.3% 1.0% 0.5% 1.3% 0.9% 1.3% 1.3%
3.9% 26.8%
9.2% 5.3% 4.5% 4.8% 4.2% 4.5% 4.5%
5.3%
6.5% 3.8% 3.0% 3.4% 2.9% 3.2% 3.2%
3.7%
9.5% 7.2% 5.5% 6.1% 5.8% 6.0% 5.8%
6.6%
7.4%
5.7%
6.0% 4.8% 3.9% 4.6% 4.3% 4.6% 4.6%
4.7%
2.6% 2.3% 2.4% 3.3% 2.9% 3.1% 3.1%
2.8%
Released Issue
AAGR
2019/
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2012
TSU Annual growth

2008
Netherlands
Norway
Poland
Romania
Santa Maria FIR
Slovakia
Slovenia
Spain
Sweden
Turkey
UK
ESRA02
CRCO88
CRCO11
2011
2012
1.6% 3.1% 3.8% 4.0% 3.2% 3.4% 2.5%
3.1%
-0.7%
-7.5%
2.1%
4.8%
-0.3%
0.1% 1.9% 2.7% 2.6% 2.2% 2.6% 2.5%
2.1%
. -1.4% 0.4% 1.2% 1.6% 0.9% 1.2% 1.3%
0.7%
3.5% 2.8% 4.6% 3.2% 2.8% 3.0% 2.9%
3.3%
8.3%
-2.8%
5.9%
8.2%
7.8%
-4.3%
0.1%
-3.3%
B
L
1.7% 1.7% 3.6% 2.3% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0%
2.1%
. -0.2% 0.7% 1.6% 1.6% 0.9% 1.1% 1.0%
0.9%
3.0% 4.9% 6.0% 6.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.8%
5.0%
7.1% 11.0%
4.8%
1.9% 3.9% 4.1% 4.2% 3.6% 3.8% 3.6%
3.6%
0.8% 2.7% 2.0% 2.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1%
2.0%
4.5% 6.5% 6.9% 6.7% 6.1% 6.2% 6.0%
6.1%
9.0%
3.5%
1.2%
2.3% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 4.5% 4.7% 4.7%
4.4%
0.1% 3.4% 2.9% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0%
2.6%
0.3% 3.8% 4.6% 5.2% 4.0% 4.4% 4.1%
3.8%
5.4%
-0.1%
6.3%
7.8%
-2.7% -1.7% 3.3% 3.4% 3.9% 3.0% 3.4% 3.2%
2.6%
. -3.7% 2.7% 2.0% 2.4% 1.7% 2.1% 2.1%
1.3%
6.2% 6.6% 5.8% 5.6% 5.1% 5.1% 4.7%
5.6%
0.7% 11.5%
5.2%
2.4%
4.2% 4.7% 3.9% 4.0% 3.6% 3.9% 3.8%
4.0%
6.1%
2.2% 2.7% 1.9% 2.5% 2.0% 2.3% 2.2%
2.3%
1.9% 6.8% 5.1% 5.3% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9%
4.5%
8.2%
0.1% -0.3% 5.3% 3.5% 3.9% 3.2% 3.4% 3.2%
3.2%
. -2.5% 3.5% 1.6% 2.2% 1.6% 1.9% 1.8%
1.4%
-3.1% 10.3% 16.3%

.
. -2.9% 3.4% 3.9% 4.2% 3.4% 4.0% 3.9%
2.8%
-1.3%
-8.4%
3.4%
5.3%
-7.2% -4.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.9% 2.5% 3.0% 2.9%
1.6%
. -5.7% 0.7% 0.5% 1.4% 1.2% 1.7% 1.7%
0.2%
0.3% 3.8% 5.4% 4.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.3%
3.5%
5.7% -11.2%
1.5%
7.9%
-1.8% -1.1% 2.6% 3.9% 3.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.5%
2.3%
H
L
. -2.7% 1.2% 1.9% 1.9% 1.2% 1.4% 1.3%
0.9%
. -1.6% 3.6% 3.3% 4.6% 2.5% 2.8% 2.5%
2.5%
1.4%
-5.1%
0.9%
1.5%
-2.3% -2.9% 2.6% 2.4% 3.1% 2.4% 2.5% 2.0%
1.7%
. -4.3% 1.3% 0.7% 1.5% 0.9% 1.2% 1.2%
0.4%
9.3% 9.4% 7.6% 7.2% 6.5% 7.2% 7.0%
7.7%
6.0% 10.4%
7.8%
2.0%
7.7% 8.2% 5.5% 5.7% 5.6% 5.7% 5.7%
6.3%
6.4%
6.1% 6.8% 3.6% 4.0% 3.9% 4.0% 4.1%
4.6%
0.1% 3.0% 3.8% 4.1% 3.2% 3.5% 2.7%
2.9%
1.4% -10.2% -4.4%
B
Ukraine
2010
B
Switzerland
2009
4.0%
-2.6% -1.2% 2.1% 2.8% 2.8% 2.3% 2.6% 2.6%
2.0%
. -2.6% 1.1% 1.5% 1.9% 1.2% 1.4% 1.6%
0.8%
5.1% 6.5% 7.1% 7.0% 6.3% 6.5% 6.4%
6.4%
12.6%
-4.5% 12.4%
6.6%
2.8%
3.3% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 4.8% 5.1% 5.0%
4.8%
1.5% 3.3% 3.2% 3.7% 3.1% 3.4% 3.5%
3.1%
1.4% 4.5% 4.7% 5.0% 3.9% 4.3% 3.9%
4.0%
2.1%
-5.4%
3.3%
4.7%
-1.4% -0.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.2%
2.8%
. -1.7% 2.0% 1.5% 2.1% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9%
1.3%
. -0.3% 3.4% 3.8% 4.4% 3.2% 3.5% 3.1%
3.0%
1.1%
-7.3%
1.0%
5.1%
-2.2% -1.5% 2.4% 2.6% 3.0% 2.4% 2.7% 2.5%
2.0%
. -2.9% 1.2% 1.0% 1.6% 1.1% 1.4% 1.5%
0.7%
1.5% 4.6% 4.8% 5.1% 4.0% 4.3% 4.0%
4.0%
6.1%
-5.1%
3.5%
5.0%
-1.3% -0.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.6% 3.0% 3.3% 3.2%
2.8%
. -1.7% 2.0% 1.5% 2.1% 1.6% 1.9% 1.9%
1.3%
Released Issue
Page 77
AAGR
2019/
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2012
TSU Annual growth

2008
PScheme
Total
2009
2010
2011
2012
0.7% 4.1% 4.4% 4.8% 3.7% 4.0% 3.6%
3.6%
5.3%
-6.6%
2.6%
4.5%
-1.5% -0.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.3% 2.7% 3.0% 2.9%
2.4%
. -2.3% 1.5% 1.3% 1.9% 1.3% 1.6% 1.7%
1.0%
1.7% 4.7% 4.9% 5.1% 4.1% 4.4% 4.1%
4.1%
6.3%
-5.1%
3.7%
5.1%
-1.2%
0.1% 3.5% 3.4% 3.7% 3.1% 3.4% 3.3%
2.9%
. -1.5% 2.1% 1.6% 2.2% 1.7% 1.9% 2.0%
1.4%
(a) The 2007, 2008 and 2009 growth figures for CRCO11, PScheme and Total are adjusted to compensate for the increase in
TSU due to the introduction of new countries in the total (in 2007, introduction of Belgrade with 920 thousands TSU in 2008,
introduction of Poland and Lithuania with 3,614 thousands TSU - in 2009, introduction of Armenia with 111 thousand TSU)
(b) The 2008 growth figures for PScheme is adjusted for increase in TSU due to Poland and Lithuania (3,614 thousands) newly
included into the total.
Page 78
Released Issue
ANNEX H.
REFERENCES
Electronic versions of the present report and the reports reference hereafter are
available from the STATFOR webpage: www.eurocontrol.int/statfor.
EUROCONTROL 7-Year forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2012-2018, EUROCONTROL

STATFOR September 2012. [MTF12b]
EUROCONTROL Short- and Medium- Term Forecast of Service Units: September 2012
update, EUROCONTROL STATFOR September 2012
STATFOR Website is available at www.eurocontrol.int/statfor
EUROCONTROL 20-year Forecast 2020-2035, to be published
Industry Monitor, EUROCONTROL STATFOR, January 2013
Challenge of Growth 2013, EUROCONTROL, to be published
EUROCONTROL 7-year forecast, IFR Movements (2012-2018,) EUROCONTROL

STATFOR February 2012 [MTF12]
EUROCONTROL Glossary for Flight Statistics and Forecasts, EUROCONTROL

STATFOR, January 2005
STATFOR Interactive Dashboard is available at: www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/sid
Released Issue
Page 79
For further information, please contact:

STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service
statfor.info@eurocontrol.int
http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor
EUROCONTROL
The Statistics and

Forecasts Service
(STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008
certified
2013 - European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL)

This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may
be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the
source and it is not used for commercial purposes (i.e. for financial gain). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from
EUROCONTROL.

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Seven Year Flights Service Units Forecast 2013 2019

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EUROCONTROL Seven-Year Forecast

Figure 1. Summary of flight forecast for Europe (ESRA08).

9,924 10,358 10,835 11,222 11,658 12,079

9,493 9,784 9,548

9,975 10,298 10,576 10,885 11,195

Edition Number: v1.0

Figure 2. Average annual flight growth 2012-2019 per State.

En-route Service Units

Forecast Feb 2013

Actual 2012 vs.2011

Forecast 2013 vs.2012

Forecast 2014 vs.2013

Forecast 2017 vs.2011

Forecast 2019 vs. 2012

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EUROPEAN AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PROGRAMME

EUROCONTROL 7-year IFR Flight Movements and Service

STATUS, AUDIENCE AND ACCESSIBILITY

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Edition Number: v1.0

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NAME AND SIGNATURE

The Statistics and Forecasts Service (STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008 certified.

Edition Number: v1.0

DOCUMENT CHANGE RECORD

Draft for internal review

REASON FOR CHANGE

Edition Number: v1.0

Summary of Forecast Methods.................................................................................................1

2. FLIGHT AND SERVICE UNITS TRENDS IN 2012 ...............................................3

Short-term outlook (2013 & 2014)...........................................................................................13

Medium-term outlook (up to 2019)..........................................................................................16

Comparison with previous forecast.........................................................................................20

Airport Constraints ..................................................................................................................21

High-Speed Train ....................................................................................................................22

5. SERVICE UNITS GROWTH TO 2019.................................................................24

Short-term outlook (2013 & 2014)...........................................................................................24

Medium-term outlook (2015 to 2019)......................................................................................25

6. RISK TO THE FORECAST GROWTH................................................................28

Flight Forecast ........................................................................................................................31

Service Units Forecast ............................................................................................................35

Annex B. TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITONS ..........................................................37

Traffic regions .........................................................................................................................38

Functional Airspace Blocks .....................................................................................................40

Annex C. SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS .......................................42

Events and Trends ..................................................................................................................45

Low-Cost Carrier Growth ........................................................................................................48

Load Factors ...........................................................................................................................50

High-Speed train Network Development.................................................................................52

Airport Traffic Switch ...............................................................................................................54

Airline schedules .....................................................................................................................54

Edition Number: v1.0

Annex D. SUMMARY OF IFR MOVEMENTS FORECAST FOR EUROPE ...........56

FUTURE TRAFFIC AND GROWTH.......................................................59

STATE BY STATE TWO-YEAR SERVICE UNITS FORECAST............69

Annex G. SEVEN-YEAR SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE ..................72

Edition Number: v1.0

Edition Number: v1.0

Edition Number: v1.0

1.2 Summary of Forecast Methods

Edition Number: v1.0

The short-term forecast (two-year) is mainly based on time-series modelling of