The following are a series of hands that show some meta-game factors that play into decision-making for

future battles.

POKERSTARS GAME #9036701584: HOLD'EM LIMIT ($200/$400) - 2007/03/22 18:52:51 (ET) twin-caracas: posts small blind $100 AlexSem: posts big blind $200 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to PapaWarbucks [9h 7h] PapaWarbucks: raises $200 to $400 jumper17: folds Al G: folds twin-caracas: folds AlexSem: calls $200

Loose UTG raise but at the time I felt it was alright. Obviously a fold more often than not, but, sometimes I play it. What makes it a hand to sometimes play? The table is playing tighter than I?d like; I have a tighter than normal image and wish to try to cash in on it; 97 still lets me win a lot of pots uncontested on the flop because they will come Ace or King high and my opponent will have flopped no pair and simply check-fold; and because my UTG raise will be perceived to more likely than normal represent a legit hand (it is true that some people play looser or tighter on some days than others, so, when you?re playing, even if you have 5000 hands against someone you should try to be noticing if it seems like someone is playing abnormally. It might just be they?re running bad, or maybe they started losing a lot and are now subconsciously tightening up, or maybe they?re on a tear and are starting to raise/3bet everything. Who knows, but, it happens often, so don?t just take your PT stats for face value. Or maybe they broke up with their girlfriend and are playing angry. You never know, but poker is a human game, and humans are capable of a lot).

*** FLOP *** [8s 5c Ts] AlexSem: checks PapaWarbucks: bets $200

AlexSem: raises $200 to $400 PapaWarbucks: calls $200

At this point in time, I basically know Alex has a piece of the flop or a draw (I feel confident about this through having played more than 10,000 hands versus him. Granted, when an opponent checkraises this flop, we can usually reach this conclusion? Basically, the known knowledge to this point in time is he?s not one of those tight players who is only checkraising this flop with TPGK, two pair, set, etc). His hand range is wide here and could include paired hands like 65, 87, T9, or straight draws such as 97, QJ, J9, 76, J7; or, other stronger hands. Notice one of the perks to being a looser player, as Alex is: I cannot so quickly pinpoint a strict hand range for him. What I have to do is work from this estimation, and derive the best course of action on future streets against this wide of a range. I?m unconcerned so far about pinpointing him for holding a few specific hands.

*** TURN *** [8s 5c Ts] [Kd] AlexSem: bets $400 PapaWarbucks: raises $400 to $800

Considering Alex?s hand range, I feel like there?s a good chance that I can win this pot now without improvement, because the king is a great card to represent after I don?t 3-bet him on the flop (it looks like I may?ve peeled with KJ, KQ, AK), and on that board he has to be hard pressed to showdown a marginal hand that he checkraised (considering his estimated hand range which includes hands like 87 or 65 or 77 or J9 or Q9). I know he is capable of folding hands on the river if the board turns scary, though not as much against me as some people (because we often play each other very aggressively). However, during this session, I?ve yet to pull any fancy BS versus him and I think my raises are going to have more credibility in his eyes. AlexSem: raises $400 to $1200 PapaWarbucks: calls $400

Ok, now I just need to hit. He probably has something, most likely two pair. I don? t expect he?s running an elaborate bluff with a flush or straight draw as it would take the most insane opponents to 3-bet this turn with nothing after two bets also went in on the flop. *** RIVER *** [8s 5c Ts Kd] [6h]

AlexSem: bets $400 PapaWarbucks: raises $400 to $800 AlexSem: calls $400 *** SHOW DOWN *** PapaWarbucks: shows [9h 7h] (a straight, Six to Ten) AlexSem: mucks hand AlexSem (big blind) mucked [Ks 5s]

Depending on your style of play, getting to showdown these types of hands is either a really good thing or a really bad thing. I tend to be an action player (though I think my opponents tend to give me less credit than they should), so, I welcome these type of hands getting to be shown. Regardless of the result, I think this is a good turn raise. On the flop he had just a pair of fives (and flush draw, but he could just as easily have K5 of clubs or Q5 of clubs), as I expected was a definite possibility in his hand range. If it just happens to be a different five (say Q5), it?s likely he calls the turn and folds on the river (or if he happens to call, then he?s got amazing sticking power and I?ll take advantage of that in future hands by making lighter turn raises for value when scare cards hit? like say, with 99 on this same board).

POKERSTARS GAME #9036902111: HOLD'EM LIMIT ($200/$400) - 2007/03/22 19:05:19 (ET) PapaWarbucks: posts small blind $100 jumper17: posts big blind $200 *** HOLE CARDS *** Dealt to PapaWarbucks [Kc 4c] Al G: folds pokkermon: folds twin-caracas: folds AlexSem: raises $200 to $400

PapaWarbucks: raises $200 to $600 jumper17: calls $400 AlexSem: calls $200

Another non-standard 3-bet, but against Alex with this being one of the first encounters since my river on him, I?m looking to fuck with him and see what happens. He isn?t running exceptionally well and I figure one of two things will happen: He?ll fold on flops he misses and raise on ones he hit (or in general start playing predictable, weak poker), or the other extreme end and try to win every pot when a scare card hits. Basically, this is the beginnings of the game within the game, and I want to give opponents I have position on as big of a headache as possible. I?ll use this hand to start gauging which direction I expect Alex?s game might skew.

*** FLOP *** [Jd 4s Ts] PapaWarbucks: bets $200 jumper17: folds AlexSem: calls $200

My read at this point is he is probably peeling lightly or has some kind of straight draw, perhaps an 87 or 97 or maybe a 98 (I say this end of the straight draw because if he had overcards I figure that is a strong enough of a draw for him that he?d raise it). Anyway, there are times when people calling on the flop can be scary, and times when it?s not. For me, this is one of those times when it?s not. My hunch is if he flopped a pair, he?d have raised my flop bet, especially with Jumper17 out of the pot.

*** TURN *** [Jd 4s Ts] [Tc] PapaWarbucks: bets $400 AlexSem: raises $400 to $800 PapaWarbucks: calls $400

Not too surprised. It?s a ?scare card? and now he?s going to represent. I?m probably calling down any river because I don?t believe him and think if he had a ten

in his hand he?d have raised me on the flop since he has played with me enough to know I have a pretty wide 3-betting range from the SB vs button raises (so a flop raise by him would show an immediate profit vs my preflop 3-betting range, especially because a flop raise is the best way to ?tie me to showdown? when I hold ace high or one mediocre pair. I?m only stating this because I believe him to be smart enough to be capable of these thoughts. If he isn?t, then it?s worthless for me to be considering them, as well). *** RIVER *** [Jd 4s Ts Tc] [2d] PapaWarbucks: checks AlexSem: bets $400 PapaWarbucks: calls $400 *** SHOW DOWN *** AlexSem: shows [Kd 5d] (a pair of Tens) PapaWarbucks: shows [Kc 4c] (two pair, Tens and Fours) PapaWarbucks collected $4595 from pot

Now that he has been caught bluffing, I figure he?s going to really clam up, or really explode in the next few hands against me. Also, the more you develop an ? unbluffable? image (which is what happens for me when I show down bottom pair with this kind of action), the easier it does become to make some turn and (especially) river folds, and also, the more likely you are to win pots in which you raised preflop and bet the flop. People begin to just check and fold when they miss versus you (or check and call the flop with overcards, and then check and fold the turn when they miss), because they perceive you as unbluffable and do not think it?s worthwhile to try fighting for pots versus you when they don?t actually hit the flop.

POKERSTARS GAME #9037139215: HOLD'EM LIMIT ($200/$400) - 2007/03/22 19:19:57 (ET) Seat 5: AlexSem ($13170 in chips) Seat 6: PapaWarbucks ($23430 in chips) Hoss_TBF: posts small blind $100 pokkermon: posts big blind $200 *** HOLE CARDS ***

Dealt to PapaWarbucks [Jd Ah] AlexSem: raises $200 to $400 PapaWarbucks: raises $200 to $600 jumper17: folds Hoss_TBF: folds pokkermon: folds AlexSem: calls $200 *** FLOP *** [Th 8s Kc] AlexSem: checks PapaWarbucks: bets $200 AlexSem: calls $200

I feel like it?s likely he?s check calling with some kind of draw or else a hand like 66 or 77 to see what comes on the turn and how I react. Again, I?m not taking this as strength, because I feel like after he tried to bluff me the last hand, the next time he gives me action on the flop or turn he?s highly likely to have what he represents. So, since he checked and called, he doesn?t have much, or else is setting a trap for the turn. *** TURN *** [Th 8s Kc] [Js] AlexSem: checks PapaWarbucks: checks This card makes a lot of draws or redraws for his hand (and either pairs up or makes straights for him, which I thought was the most likely hand he check called the flop with), and, because I?m afraid he might be in tilt-mode, my hand doesn?t really want to face the heat of a checkraise. I figure that this jack has to have improved his hand, and if not, it?s because he has a hand like 77 (which also has a gutshot) or 66. Moreover, he?ll probably fold some of those pocket pair hands if I bet the turn, but if I check, he?ll bet with them on the river as a bluff (as well as with hands such as A9). He will also bet AT, QT, QJ on the river. So, although I?m losing some value versus those hands, overall I don?t think I?m losing much. Why? Because his hand range is one of the following: A hand that is torturing me (but wasn?t on the flop) and I?m drawing slim, yet I?ll feel compelled to call a checkraise (because I still have a straight/two

pair/trips draw). Against this type of hand Alex could have, I don?t want to bet [AQ, Q9, JT]. These hands are very possible holdings for him given my assumption is correct that his flop check-call means likely weakness. A hand that is losing to my hand, but, now has a lot of outs [QJ, QT, 89, T9]. Against this hand, a bet is preferred but he has enough outs that I am not losing much in EV. These hands are very possible holdings for him for the same reason as the above were. Again, these hands will probably bet the river, especially the pair of jack hands. A bet is only correct if I?m super confident that he will either almost always check call, or else checkraise a high enough percent of the time with a worse hand to make it an easy call down. Because of the past hand history, I don?t hold this confidence. A hand that is losing to me and is drawing super slim [AT, 66, A9]. Against these hands, a check is the best against most of them because they will often induce a river bet a lot of the time, so I?m still gaining a BB no matter if it?s on the turn or on the river (assuming these hands fold to a river bet). ?

Basically, against his overall range, there is more merit to checking and betting. As an additional note, hands with a king in them (or a set) haven?t been addressed, because it?s my guess (based on metagame factors) that he?d checkraise them on the flop a majority of the time.

*** RIVER *** [Th 8s Kc Js] [Ts] AlexSem: bets $400 PapaWarbucks: calls $400 The ten is one of the worst cards in the deck for me, but, basically when I check the turn I have committed myself to showing down.

*** SHOW DOWN *** AlexSem: shows [9c Qc] (a straight, Nine to King) PapaWarbucks: mucks hand AlexSem collected $2695 from pot

Additional commentary: From my perspective, it is substantially better for Alex to bet the turn, because versus my preflop 3-betting range I will have hit this board hard enough often enough for him to be able to bet-3bet the turn, and likewise, it?s a board that gives a lot of hands some redraws so he has to suspect the possibility I will decide to take a free card with a hand that picked up some redraws.

In this set of three hands which occurred in less than half an hour, I know I make a lot of assumptions. Sometimes, it?s just intuition. Sometimes, it?s things I?ve picked up on with regards to how people (in a general sense) generally react in situations. A lot of it is guess work and trying to piece together a logical puzzle in which the pieces are every single hand of poker you?ve ever played against anyone, and trying to draw on those experiences and get familiar with how peoples? psyches change in situations and how this should effect your estimations on what they?re capable of. But to beat tough games, these are the type of predictions you have to be making and the type of thought processes you should be gathering. It?s very psychological, and sometimes you?re right, sometimes you?re wrong ? but never stop learning and observing and trying to recognize tendencies in people. There?s a lot you can take advantage of in humanity, beginning simply with us all being human. One thing is for certain though: if you don?t have enough grit to risk making yourself look foolish in some hands, it?s going to be pretty tough to win in a high stakes LHE cash game because most of your opponents are trying to run in-depth thought process analysis on you, too.