TEMPERATURE and CLIMATE DATA COMPILATION Synopsis: The cooler-calmer project aims to find links between energy and

temperature/noise. Thus temperature data is needed to verify whether there is any rise in the overall temperatures of Singapore, and if there is, by how much and possibly in which specific regions. Hence, data for absolute temperature of Singapore, and nearby regions (within 20-30km from Singapore coastline) in Malaysia, Indonesia, was compiled from various sources. Also, the overall temperature trend of Singapore was compared to that of different regions in the World. Furthermore, data has been collected to substantiate to the Urban Heat Island Effect theory. Final data: Annual average temperatures data was gathered in raw format, and was formatted, tabulated and plotted using Microsoft Excel 2010, in the following excel sheets (hyperlinked). Sources for all data have been listed in their respective sheets: TEMPERATURE DATA- SINGAPORE and the WORLD Sheet1- Absolute annual average temperatures of Singapore, recorded at weather stations of Paya Lebar(1911-2012) and Changi International airport(1982-2012) have been compiled and plotted. *annual averages were obtained by averaging monthly ones for each year. Some months didnt have all days monitored, due to which averages might be slightly inaccurate (marked in red colour in the sheet). Sheet 6 Compares annual averaged absolute temperatures of the world (18802012) to Singapore, Paya Lebar(1911-2012) Sheet 2 Tabulates temperature deviations of Singapores mean annual temperatures, from a base average calculated from 1951-1980. This was done because data for the world was available in this format. Also, more meaningful comparisons could be achieved by comparing temperature anomalies of Singapore with the rest of the world. Sheet 7- Tabulates temperature anomalies of Singapore and the Globe, Northern hemisphere and the region on earth from equator to 24 degree N latitude, with reference to the base period 1951-1980. Sheet 8- Plot of temperature anomalies data calculated in sheet 7

TEMPERATURE DATA of MALAYSIA and INDONESIA From among more than 25 weather stations in each country, those within 20-30 km of Singapore coastline were selected. However, data was not available for many years in the period 1960-2012, and none for before 1960. OTHER CLIMATE DATA All other data related to the weather-wind-speeds(average and maximum sustained), precipitation from four weather stations in Singapore-Paya Lebar, Changi airport, Tengah, Seletar. TEMPERATURES AT DIFFERENT LOCATIONS IN SINGAPORE This visual data was another helpful substantiation to the urban heat island theory. Temperatures are recorded at various weather stations across Singapore, and a clear difference of up to 2 degree Celsius is seen between the industrialized and forest areas, during the early morning hours. Source: http://www.weather.gov.sg/online/searchAllStationsProcess.do These maps are updated every day, at every hour by the NEA, and can be referenced anytime, and they show very clearly, the rise and fall in temperatures throughout the day in Singapore. RESULTS: The initial temperature data shows that absolute temperatures of Singapore have been rising steadily. Also, comparisons of the anomaly trends between Singapore and the world, Northern Hemisphere, and Equator-24N, clearly reveal that rate of temperature rise in Singapore is much higher. The temperature maps of Singapore distinctly show noticeable differences among various locations. Even though this temperature data alone does not conclude that anthropogenic activities solely contribute to regional temperature rise, rapid industrialization and development of Singapore cannot be discarded as part of the causes of this phenomenon.

SOURCES: http://www.weather.gov.sg/online/searchAllStationsProcess.do http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/Singapore_Paya_Lebar/2012/486940.ht m

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/BATAM_HANG_NADIM/1988/960870.ht m http://datamarket.com/data/set/1loo/#!display=table&ds=1loo!1n6s=2i0 http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v3/GLB.Ts.txt

NOISE DATA SINGAPORE Synopsis: Noise is a frequently complained problem in Singapore, with traffic and construction being the major sources. Although measures have been taken by the government to reduce noise from construction sites, traffic noise hasnt been given as much attention. One of the objectives of the cooler-calmer project being simulation of noise in whole of Singapore, data has been collected to get an idea of the current situation of traffic noise in Singapore. However, very few studies have been carried out in this regard, that too around 9-10 years ago. Methodology : Data was obtained from a study carried out in 2004, which measured traffic noise levels in 8 locations in Singapore. The following presentation includes the visual representations of the data found, and pictures and map locations of the areas studied. Singapore Traffic noise study- presentation The main paper that was used as a reference is hyperlinked as follows: Singapore traffic Noise study Results: As can be seen from the presentation, noise levels had reached disturbing levels back in 2004, and also posed serious health concerns in the long term. Since the number of vehicles has significantly increased in the past 10 years, the situation can only have worsened. Hence, a detailed traffic noise survey is required, since almost no data is available in literature, to verify any simulation performed.

NOISE SIMULATION MODELS and SOFTWARE SYNOPSIS: For the complex noise simulations to be executed in the cooler-calmer Singapore project, commercial and open source software were analysed, to decide the best one to be used. METHODOLOGY: There are a lot of software packages (commercial and open source) available for outdoor noise simulations. Many of them are extremely competitive, and have their markets in different countries. Brochures or datasheets werent enough to decide which one would be more suitable for our needs. Also, among the advanced noise simulation models presently available, different leading software use different models. Hence, accuracy of the models was decided to be the main deciding factor. Thus, list of software was narrowed down based on their market popularity, and the latest models and international standards followed. Final list of software along with models employed for roads/traffic, aircraft, industry and railway noise simulation is hyperlinked here: List of 3D outdoor noise simulation software Focus was given on road traffic noise models, because noise models for industry, airways and railways are common in almost all commercial, leading software. Traffic noise simulation is the main focus of the project as well. Following are hyperlinks to extensive theory for noise simulation and modelling, which were referred for understanding and comparing existing models: Background on Sound Propagation Wave Propagation theory

Noise Propagation theory Outdoor noise modelling Road Noise Prediction Theory and improvements in Noise Simulation Various models for traffic, aircrafts and industry noise exist, whose mathematical formulations were studied in detail. Following is a list of the advanced models (hyperlinked to their content): NMPB 2008 HARMONOISE NORD2000 ASJRTN 2008 ISO-9613-2 (Industrial noise model) ECAC Doc.29 (Aircraft noise model) *** Professor Axhausen from Module 8 has also suggested looking into the traffic noise prediction model which has been developed in Hong Kong. This model is possibly more pragmatic (because considerable amount of experimentation has been done, and structure of Hong-Kong is more similar to Singapore compared to European cities, where some of the models listed have been developed), and grants faster computation time. However, information about this model could not be found on the internet. The following link (paid research article) probably contains description about this model: http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/12186036 Some research has been done to compare different models, which explore the differences in their implementation in different software, and the competency of these models themselves: Comparison of Noise Propagation modelling Methods Comparison of Noise simulation models-Internoise 2010 Comparison of European Road Traffic Noise Models Harmonoise vs Nord2000 Noise Model Comparisons_EURONOISE 2009 Comparison of Noise models- AERC and ECAC Doc.29 (aircraft noise simulation)

Very few studies have been carried out that compare the execution by different software. However, none of them conclude which software is better or worse. CadnaA vs SoundPlan (both are popular software) CadnaA vs SoundPlan contd RESULTS: Based on all the information about noise simulation models, it was found that the French Model NMPB 2008 and the Japanese model ASJ RTN 2008 are the most accurate(barring the Hong Kong model, as information was not available). However, there are some important differences and shortcomings to be considered for each of these models: Temperature gradient at the site of interest can have significant effect on the trajectory of sound. Areas with large water mass (such as Marina Bay Sands) can have noticeable temperature differences near the surface of water and at greater heights. While the NMPB 2008 model takes into account the downward refraction of sound while propagation, and gives an upper limit for upward refraction (may lead to over estimation of sound level), the ASJ-RTN 2008 model does not consider refraction of sound at all. The ASJ-RTN 2008 model extensively handles diffraction due to edges at various different kinds of barriers, with special formulae for diffraction in areas such as signalized intersections, regions crowded with buildings and other structures etc. This comprehensive handling is absent in NMPB 2008 model, which has a generalized method for handling some barrier. Therefore, depending on the area in Singapore, different models will have to be used- for e.g:- Near the Marina Bay Sands area, NMPB 2008 model might be better, because it is better equipped to handle atmospheric refraction of sound. However, in crowded commercial complexes etc. the ASJ-RTN model would be better. Regarding the software- although all commercial software in the market are competent, SoundPLAN would be most suited for the cooler-calmer project, because it is the only software that employs both these models above. Commercially also, SoundPLAN is fast gaining popularity compared to others. However, when CadnaA and SoundPLAN were compared, there was a very less difference in the final results obtained after simulation using the NMPB model. SoundPLAN is a modular software- meaning that we need to buy only what we need, and further additions can be made afterwards (unlike other software), with excellent customer service- I was contacted by their developers after I

downloaded the demo version (didnt happen for other software), and they also explained some of the differences and limitations of the models listed above. It should be noted that finalising the noise simulation model to be used is more important than the software, because if the model decided is available in all the software, then the decision may be based upon economic feasibility, ease of use and services provided rather than quality of result obtained, which is approximately same for the 3 leading software- SoundPLAN, CadnaA and Predictor-LIMA. Also, the Hong Kong Noise model needs to be researched, because might turn out to be a competent option.

REPLACING PALM OIL PLANTATIONS with PV ARRAYS Synopsis: This was an extensive analysis of a possible situation in the future, wherein Singapore might be required to import renewable energy from other countries. Malaysia and Indonesia are the largest producers of Palm oil in the world (ranked 1st and 2nd respectively). A huge amount of land has been allotted to these plantations in both these countries, which is expected to further increase in the future. Hence, it was hypothesised that more revenue could be generated out of these lands, if they are replaced with Solar PV arrays, instead of replanting them with palm oil trees, after harvesting. Therefore, a detailed economic feasibility analysis has been carried out, which explores whether it is beneficial to do so. Methodology:

Calculations were carried out for 1 square km of land. Palm oil Revenue calculation: Estimates were obtained from the internet, for the average total production of palm oil and its products produced per hectare of land, which were linearly extrapolated to get the production values for 1 square km of land (i.e, multiplied by 100) Then, international stock market prices for these products, for the past 12 years were analysed. Future prices of Palm oil and Palm kernel oil are extremely volatile, and difficult to predict. Hence, average prices were considered for past 6 months, past year, and future stock market predictions for next 6 months. Thus, 3 figures for total revenue per square kilometre were obtained, on multiplying production values(metric tonnes/sq km) with prices(USD per metric tonne). Following Workbook(hyperlinked) demonstrates all the calculations: Palm oil Plantations Revenue calculations Solar PV revenue Calculation: Average Solar insolation per month was obtained for different regions in Indonesia and Malaysia, using which total solar energy falling per square km was found. Taking into account the density factor of 3 hectares/MW (taken directly from actual solar PV array installation in Spain), maximum number of solar panels (datasheets taken from leading solar panel manufacturers) was calculated. Total energy output was found for 3 different possible on-field efficiencies, i.e, 10%, 12% and 15%. Losses due to on-site factors were also taken into account and subtracted from total possible energy output at each efficiency value. Revenue was computed by multiplying electricity costs in Singapore (averages around 10 cents/kWh, without significant deviation), with the total energy output per square km in the Indonesian and Malaysian plantations. Installation costs of Solar Photovoltaics have been calculated using 3 possible values in the near future: 2.2$/W, 2.5$/W and 2.8$/W From the computations, it is seen that complete replacement of 1 sq km of Plantation with PV arrays requires extremely high installation cost, which cannot be recovered within 25 years(lifetime of Solar Panel). But, an interesting observation is that if only some area of the plantations are covered with PV, the revenue obtained after cross subsidising the installation cost with total revenue from Palm oil products and electricity generated, is almost equal or even greater in some cases. The calculations for all cases are linked in the following excel spreadsheet:

Solar PV + Palm oil revenues Sheet 5- Calculations regarding land area allotted to solar PV, total revenue generated from remaining palm oil plantation Sheet 6- Calculation of Payback period from whole setup, in Malaysia and Indonesia, for different installation costs and efficiencies of the solar panels Sheet 7- Shows payback period and revenue collected in the remaining period( along with a small graph plot), from the combined setup, for varying areas of solar PV Sheet 8- Shows calculations for energy conversion, and total revenue generated in all scenarios different efficiencies, areas for PV and installation costs) in Malaysia and Indonesia Sheets 9-14- repeated tables for plotting graphs. Show graphs for payback period and revenue collected versus area of solar PV in the 1 sq km plantation RESULTS: The revenue per square km from palm oil products is highly dependent on the international stock prices, which have shown considerable variability in the past. However, the current trend in their prices is of decline (calculations have been done at 773USD/tonne; current prices are 745 USD/tonne). Furthermore, the cost of installation of solar energy is positively expected to significantly decrease in the future. Thus, it is a commercially viable option to explore, wherein some part of the plantations is covered with PV, so that revenue after payback is greater than previous revenues from solely palm oil and its products. In addition, the electricity generated can also be used to power some of the local villages, which provides an added incentive to the governments for examining this idea.

SOURCES: http://www.indexmundi.com/commodities/?commodity=palm-oil http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/us--installed-price-of-pvsystems-continue-to-fall_100009368/#axzz2UZN9PAfp http://www.evi.com/ http://dateandtime.info/citycoordinates.php?id=1732721 http://www.gaisma.com/en/ http://www.singaporepower.com.sg/irj/go/km/docs/wpccontent/Sites/SP%20 Services/Site%20Content/Tariffs/documents/latest_press_release.pdf

A Grand Challenge for Electricity from Solar -$1/W Photovoltaic Systems White Paper to Explore (US department of Energy) Energy Market Authority Singapore (presentation-page 13)