Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| August 28, 28 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| August 28, 28 2013

International Commodities
Overview
Indian Rupee touched all time low 66.30 in yesterdays trading session session. US CB Consumer Confidence gained to 81.5-level level in current month. Nymex crude oil prices rose sharply around 4 percent yesterday. German Ifo Business Climate increased to 107.5-mark mark in August. LME copper inventories gained around 2 percent in yesterdays trade.

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) Prev day

as on 27 August, 2013 w-o-w m-o-m y-o-y

66.3

-3.1 3.1

-5.1

-12.3

-16.0

Asian markets are trading lower today on the back of tension between Syria and US along with favorable economic data from US in yesterdays trade increased the concerns of QE tapering from the Federal Reserve. Shiller (CS) Composite Composite-20 House Price US Standard & Poor's (S&P) / Case-Shiller Index (HPI) rose at slow pace of 12.1 percent in June a as against a rise of 12.2 percent a month ago. Richmond Manufacturing Index was at 14 14mark in August from -11-level level in July. Conference Board (CB) Consumer Confidence gained by 0.5 points to 81.5-level level in current month with respect to 81-mark in last month. The US Dollar Index (DX) declined around 0.3 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of more than expected rise in US consumer confidence data. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned as a result of rise in risk aversion in global bal market sentiments along with expectations that QE tapering from Federal Reserve will be possible after favorable economic data from the US. The currency touched an intra intra-day low of 81.14 and closed at 81.20 on Tuesday. e than 3 percent in yesterdays trading The Indian Rupee depreciated more session. The currency depreciated on the back of month end dollar demand from oil importers and companies. Further, concerns regarding Current Account Deficit (CAD) and economy growth of the country exerted downside pressure on the currency. Additionally, outflow of foreign funds from equities and debt acted as a negative factor. Finance Minister P Chidambaram tried to lift the investor confidence by approving infrastructure projects worth Rs.1.83 trillion ($28.4 million) but was not able to provide rovide relief to free fall in the Rupee. The currency touched an all time low of 66.30 and closed at same levels on Tuesday. For the month of August 2013, FII outflows totaled at Rs.3571.40 crores th ($550.50 million) as on 27 August 2013. Year to date b basis, net capital th inflows stood at Rs.62,521.0 crores ($11,935.30 million) till 27 August 2013.

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3392

0.2

-0.2

0.9

7.1

Dollar Index NIFTY

81.20

-0.3 0.3

0.3

-0.9

2.2

5287.5

-3.5 3.5

-10.2

-10.2

-1.8

SENSEX

17968.1

-3.2 3.2

-9.0

-9.0

-1.8

DJIA

14776.1

-1.1 1.1

-1.5

-4.7

12.6

S&P

1630.5

-1.6 1.6

-3.6

-3.6

15.6

Source: Reuters

The Euro increased around 0.2 percent in the yesterdays trade taking cues from weakness in the DX. Further, favorable economic data from Germany supported an upside in the currency. However, sharp positive movement in the currency was capped on account of weak global market sentiments. The Euro touched an intra-day day high of 1.3399 and closed at 1.3392 on Tuesday. German Ifo Business Climate increased by 1.3 points to 107.5107.5 mark in August as against a rise of 106.2-level 106.2 in July.

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| August 28, 28 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices increased around 0.8 percent yesterday on the back of increase in SPDR gold holdings by 0.1 percent which stood at 921.03 tonnes. Further, weakness in the DX was also supportive for prices. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on account of weak global market sentiments. The yellow metal touched an intra intra-day high of $1423.41/oz and closed at $1416/oz in yesterdays trading session. On the MCX, Gold October contract rose around 5.8 perc percent yesterday on account of sharp depreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs.33,715/10 gms after touching an intra-day day high of Rs.33,824/10 gms on Tuesday. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1416.0 Prev. day 0.8 as on 27 August, 2013 WoW 3.3 MoM 6.2 YoY -14.9

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (Oct13) MCX Gold (Oct13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

32900.0

2.8

19.6

19.6

10.4

1419.3

3.0

3.4

6.6

-14.9

$/oz

1393.0

-0.2

1.4

6.1

-16.6

Rs /10 gms

33715.0

5.8

9.4

23.0

8.5

Source: Reuters

Silver
Market Highlights - Silver (% change) Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with weakness in the DX, Spot silver prices rose around 0.8 percent yesterday yesterday. Additionally, favorable economic data from US and Euro Zone supported an upside in prices. However, sharp upside in prices was capped as a result of downside in base metals group. The white metal touched an intra intra-day high of $24.67/oz and closed at $24.50/oz in yesterdays s trade. In the Indian markets, prices rose whopping around 6.5 percent on account of Rupee depreciation and closed at Rs.57,290/kg on Tuesday.
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Sept13) MCX Silver (Sept13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 24.5 56680.0 Prev day 0.8 3.6 as on 27 August, 2013 WoW 6.4 36.0 MoM 22.7 36.0 YoY -20.3 3.6

$/oz $/ oz

2429.0 24.0

5.3 1.2

6.2 4.1

21.3 22.4

-20.0 -22.7

Rs / kg

57290.0

6.5

13.5

40.5

-1.3

Outlook
In the Indian markets, Rupee depreciation is expected to support upside in gold and silver prices both. In the international markets, gold prices are expected to rise on the back of increase in SPDR gold holdings. However, sharp upside will be capped as a result of weak global market sentiments along with strength in the DX. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Oct13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Sept13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for August 28, 2013 Support 1407/1399 33500/33300 24.30/24.00 56500/56000 Resistance 1424/1436 33900/34200 24.70/25.10 57800/58400

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| August 28, 28 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices increased around 3 percent in yesterdays trading session taking cues from expectations that tension in Syria will spread to other part of Middle East region and has created supply concerns from the region. Further, weakness in the DX supported an upside in prices. However, sharp upside pside in prices was capped on the back of rise in API crude oil inventories. Crude oil prices touched an intra intra-day high of $109.32/bbl and closed at $109.01/bbl in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices rose whopping 7 percent on accou account of sharp depreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs.7,355/bbl after touching an intra-day day high of Rs.7,486/bbl on Tuesday Tuesday. API Inventories Data As per the American Petroleum Institute (API) report last night, US crude oil inventories gained by 2.5 million barrels to 366.62 million barrels for the week ending on 23rd August 2013. Gasoline inventories dropped by 1.1 million barrels to 219.12 million barrels and whereas distillate inventories rose marginally by 3,000 barrels to 129.19 million barrels for the same week. EIA Inventories Forecast The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report today at 8:00pm IST and US crude oil inventories is expected to rise by 0.2 million barrels for the week ending on 23rd August 2013. Gasoline stocks are expected to drop by 1.2 million barrels whereas distillate inventories are expected to shoot up by 0.7 million barrels for the same period. Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade higher er on the back of tension in Middle East region will lead to supply concerns. Additionally, rally in prices from yesterdays trade is expected to continue which will be supportive for prices. However, sharp upside in prices will be capped as a result of rise se in API crude oil inventories in yesterdays trade, forecast for rise in US crude oil inventories along with strength in the DX. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will act as a positive factor for prices. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Aug13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for August 28, 2013 Support 108.50/107.50 7270/7200 Resistance 110.80/111.70 7420/7480
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)

Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Sep 13) ICE Brent Crude (Sep13) MCX Crude (Aug 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 117.2 109.0 Prev. day 2.7 2.9 WoW 4.0 3.9

as on 27 August, 2013 MoM 7.9 3.8 YoY 2.3 14.2

$/bbl

114.4

3.3

3.8

6.7

1.9

Rs/bbl

7355.0

7.1

9.6

18.4

38.6

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Aug 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.584 230.4 Prev. day 2.3 1.6

as on 27 August, 2013 MoM 0.67 9.61 YoY 33.53 55.99

Source: Reuters

WoW 4.10 5.30

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| August 28, 28 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
The base metals pack on the LME traded on a negative note in the yesterdays trading session mainly due to weak global market sentiments. Further, favorable consumer confidence data from US increased concerns regarding QE tapering from the Federal Reserve. However sharp downside was cushioned due to weakness in the DX and favorable economic data from the Euro Zone and US US. In the Indian markets, arkets, base metals gained sharply in the range of 3 3-6 percent due to Rupee depreciation. Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change)
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Aug13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (Aug13) Rs /kg 124.0 4.2 4.7 19.2 18.4 $/tonne 1886.8 -0.6 -1.5 4.9 -1.7 Rs/kg 494.5 4.3 6.2 21.1 15.9 $/tonne Last 7309.0 as on 27 August, 2013 WoW -0.2 MoM -6.9 YoY -4.6

Prev. day -0.6

Copper
Copper lost 0.6 percent on the LME due to weak market sentiments. Additionally, increase in inventories by more than 2 percent exerted downside pressure on prices. However, sharp downside was cushioned due to weak weakness in the DX and positive economic data from the Euro Zone and US US. The red metal touched an intraday low of $7275/tonne and closed at $7309/tonne yesterday. On the MCX, the near-month month copper contract gained 4.3 percent taking cues from Rupee depreciation. The metal touched an intraday high of Rs.502.30/kg and closed at Rs.494.45/kg on Tuesday. Outlook In todays session, we expect base metals prices to trade on a mixed note on the back of favorable economic data from Euro Zone and US in yesterdays trade. Further, forecast for favorable economic data from Euro Zone and increase in US pending home sales data will support an upside in prices. While on the other hand, weak global market sentiments coupled with stronger DX will act as a negative factor for prices. In the Indian markets, depreciation in the Rupee will push upside in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Aug13 MCX Zinc Aug 13 MCX Lead Aug 13 MCX Aluminum Aug13 MCX Nickel Aug 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for August 28, 2013 Support 490/485 130.00/129.00 148.00/147.00 122.80/121.00 960/950 Resistance 499/503 132.00/133.00 151.00/152.00 125.00/126.00 975/985

LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel (Aug13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (Aug13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (Aug13)

$/tonne

14425.0

-0.8

-2.1

4.2

-12.5

Rs /kg

967.0

3.8

4.0

18.6

5.9

$/tonne

2228.3

0.0

-0.8

8.5

13.1

Rs /kg

149.5

5.5

5.5

23.5

37.1

$/tonne

1976.0

-0.6

-0.5

6.9

5.4

Rs /kg

131.1

4.7

6.2

21.6

27.3

Source: Reuters

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 27th August 576,350 5,422,150 211,902 1,024,850 186,525 23rd August 564,225 5,428,175 210,060 1,023,575 187,850 Actual Change 12,125 -6,025 1,842 1,275 -1,325 (%) Change 2.1 -0.1 0.9 0.1 -0.7
Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

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Commodities Daily Report

Wednesday| August 28, 28 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

GfK German Consumer Climate M3 Money Supply y/y CBI Realized Sales BOE Gov Carney Speaks Pending Home Sales m/m Crude Oil Inventories

Euro Euro UK UK US US

11:30am 1:30pm 3:30pm 5:15pm 7:30pm 8:00pm

7.1 2.0% 20 0.2% 0.2M

7.0 2.3% 17 -0.4% 0.4% -1.4M 1.4M

Medium Medium Medium High High Medium

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