Review_30/08/13 - ( Rating - 0/15 ) Extreme Negative - High Risk - Rupee is Breaking Down / Nifty on verge of Breaking into Down

n trend (Stage 4) / AD is -ve / TRIN is -ve / Net 52 WK Hi/Low is -ve (--) Big Picture is Extremely Negative. | 0 is extreme -ve | 1 is -ve | 2 is Netural | 3 is +ve | 4 is extreme +ve | Indian Rupee - ( 0/4 ) Rupee has given a Fresh Breakout from Consolidation (Near Lifetime Highs) Consolidation was from 58.932 to 61.230 Demand Zone are at 64.074 (63.669) 63.206 61.134 (60.738) 60.367 & 59.351 (59.044) 58.589 Rupee's Breakout on All timeframes from Ascending triangle Pattern has Measured Move Target of 61.734.has been completed & As $ is at lifetime High v/s Rupee, $ has entered a new Bull Maket in Rupee Depreciation.. Rupee has exceeded Measured move target & 100 % @ 66.386 It is Notable that $ Index is at Demand Zone & is breaking out of Weekly Ascending Triangle, $ is expected to Raise against all Currencies (Double Wammy for Rupee) Also With Growing Crises senerio Green Buck (has been considered to be the Hedge (Preferred Vehicle For Cash). (* Note : This time around, This Process is Going to Hurt the Instution the Most.Time will Prove this Historic Process would FAIL & set the Cat among the Pigeons & set the Financial world into a Hole. Nifty - ( 0/4 ) Move From 4500 (19-12-2011) to 5631 (22-02-2012) is Uptrend & there was retracement upto 4761 (61.8% Retracement) upto 05-06-2012 Market Restarted Uptrend from 4761 (05-06-2012) to 6110 (29-01-2013) There was correction from 6110 (29-012013) Upto 5477 (10-04-2013) After Entire Move from 5477 (10-04-2013) to 6229 (20-052013) There was correction in Uptrend (as Higher Low is formed at 5570 on 25-06-2013 after Neckline of 5950 of Fresh H & S is Broken Measured Decline is upto 5700 (78.6 % Rectracement of 5477 to 6229) Lower High Lower Low Trend (Down Trend from 6229 (2005-2013) to 5565 (24-06-2013) Ended as 5684 ( 18-062013 ) Lower High is Broken on closing Basis Resulting into sideways Trend . 5474 is broken on Down side & market is in Down Trend. Currently there is a pullback from Previous Demand Zone of 5127 5034 & is testing Previous Demand Zone (Now Resistance) 5550.13 (5507.13) 5474.97 Supply Levels are 1) 5755.28 to 5714.63 2) 5720.59 (5706) 5897 - 3) 5807 (5791) 5780 - 4) 5550.13 (5506.50) 5474.97 Demand Levels are 1) 5276.86 - 5211.20 2) 5128.09 (5079.67) 5032.70 3) 4842.27 4770.73

Dimensions Price Major Trend line break from Historic Pivot lows of 2532 - 4534 - 4775 was broken on the down side (Close Below Trendline Break is still awaited) Now Measured move of Break of Ascending Tringle is very very Low 3345 (50%) & 2864 (61.8%) Volume Volumes are in increasing Trend.In Sep series Nifty future added 26.64 lakh position in Open Interest and this accounts to 15.39 % of Total Open Interest in Sep series.The Nifty Sep series is trading at 15.05 Rs discount to Underlying . In derivative cumulatively for all series contract Nifty future net added 27.62 lakh position in open interest and this accounts to 14.63 % of Total Open Interest in all series and cumulatively trading in average premium of 12.05 Rs to Underlying. Indicators MCDA +Ve Trend RSI +Ve Trend Sentiments Sentiments are now negative as clear Down trend has emerged,There is Panick for getting out of Positions Risk Reward would be favourable on Sell Side. Earnings were mostly -ve are expected TIme After Previous F&O expiry (@ 5409 ) Nifty has now build huge Short Position / Rally.. As per Nifty's 56 Day Cycle Trend changed to up & than Reversed to Down side with Momentum (+56Days) ( Next Date 02-09-2013 )..... Mid month Reversal date of 12-09-2013 ..... Quaterlies Settlement is on 3rd Friday of 20-09-2013..... Bear Market downtrend has start after Nifty has closed below the Swing of 5955 (16-07-2013)

Open Intrest (OI) NIFTY FUTURE-CMP(5456.75) is currently in SLIGHTLY BEAR trend .The open interest is not increasing with trend so be careful and discount of share is also increasing so buyer be cautious At current price strike the activity is tilted to call side and ratio is still strong The Nifty call option is trading at discount so sentiment at higher level seems cautious NIFTY PCR (Position Wise) - 1.22 & (Money Wise) - 1 P & F Chart Low Pole reversal Occured occurred on 2908-2013. There is Resistance at 5500 & Support at 5050 .Downtrend is strong

Breadth Charts - ( 0/3 ) (Rating 1 for Each +ve) Advance Decline Line (0/1) If the Nifty is rising but the number of stocks advancing is dropping, then the trend is in trouble and may pause soon or even reverse. AD Line is Falling indicates Strength in Down trend But some Balance in AD needs to be achieved. Midcaps are Falling with Deciling Momentum ( After Recovery from Over Sold Levels ) But some Large caps & All Index Heavy Weights are Declining with Huge Momentum & Breakdowns Trader's Index (TRIN Chart) (0/1) To Incorporate Volume of Advance Decline Analysis - TRIN is unusual in that it moves opposite to the Nifty TRIN is a ratio where 1.0 means selling and buying pressure are equal TRIN BELOW 1.0 (More Volume in stocks that are advancing) & Above 1.0 (More Volume in stocks that are Declining SMA Trin is Between 1.1 & 1.0 indicates Strength in Downtrend & space for more stocks to Decline,The series of Lower Highs is Intact & indicates -Ve strength NSE Net Monthly High & Low (0/1) More Stocks in the index making new highs versus new lows if Number is Reducing Trend is in Trouble.The Rising New Highs indicate Markets Buying pressure is accelerating (Environment & Trend) is Positive There is a downward slope as "Valleys of 52 week Highs" is Dropping With Down Trend Gaining strength The "Troughs of stocks Hitting 52 Week Lows" would increase

India Vix Volatility Index (or Fear Index or VIX) is a weighted measure of the implied volatility.Market Makers hedge the market Play, the Down Volume is always a factor & used in Direct Corelation with the VIX & They Together have Indirect corelation with Index ie Vix & DVol is Down; Market will move Up AND Vix & DVol is Up;Market will move Down.Indirect relation between Vix & DVOL leads to Sidewise Index VIX after Breaking out from the 18 level to a 52 week High of 23.64 ( Breaking out 52 WeekRange). Fear/ Volitality is increasing with Down Trend indicating strength in stage 4.Pullback has taken it Down to 27.81...Volume is also High....

Indian Bonds (0/4) Indirect Correlation with Stock Market; Money Flows from Bonds to Stock for Short term Maturity (Mkt Goes up) & Vice Versa. Shorter Period = Lower Rate (Controlled by Centeral Bank & Indirect relation to Stock Market) + Longer Period = Higher Rate (Controlled by Market) All Bonds indicating Double Top. 3 Year Rate is Higher than 30 & 10 Year Rate (Caution Money is Moving to Short term Bond Market from Share Market indicates Weekness in Economy & Flight to safety ) .. Correct Relation is 30Y ROI > 10Y ROI > 3Y ROI. Under Asset Rotation from Risk on (Equity Market) to Risk off (Bond Market - Security Backed by Govt) & with Devalution of Rupee the Dollar Outage is gaining strength ( Increase of Returns in 100% Govt secured Bonds).Also Yield Returns in India are more than corrosponding Bonds in Developed Markets. 10 Y

3Y

30 Y

A - Positive/Direct Corelation Between Bond Mkt (Long Term) = Forex (Individual Currency) Mkt = Stock Mkt B - Positive/Direct Corelation Between Commodity Mkt = Inflation (Status of Economy) = Bank Rate Negative/Indirect Corelation between A & B http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui Commodities (Negative Correlation) $CRB has made a Double top , Commodities Crude is in uptrend but Bulltrap was set for ascending Triangle breakout on weekly chartt,Post Pullback, Gold has broken Down again ... ( Equity Markets Rally has Dangers Due to Reduced Economic Growth (& Reduced Commodity Demand) & Geo Political Tensions are also increasing,Now Commodities are to Resume Down Trend as Major banks are set to Move out of Physical Commodity Markets. (Excess Supply Over Demand) Group 1 - Oil + Gas -> 33 % Weight Group 2 - Natural Gas + Metal + Corn + Soya -> 42% Weight

Currency Markets (Positive Coorrelation) Dollar is the Only Appriciating Currency & has Reached Demand Zone (Breakout of Ascending Triangle on weekly Timeframe) & Hence Some Currencies are Reaching Supply Zone. Japan Yen Aussie $ are Depriciating & Market are trying to Rebuild (Distribution) after collapse has caused Panik across Globe after Fed's Hints at Liquidity Reversal (Market failed to Build Gains on Bad Reports & has Declined on Good Reports as it fuels Concern on Reduction in Liquidity (QE Reversal)..... Hence Global markets are in Risk Off Mode .. Currency War has Reached Phase II where Every Currency (Developed & Other Emerging Mkt Currencies ) are depreciating against $ to take advantage of investment in safe Govt Secured Bond

World Markets (Positive Coorrelation) Chinese Recover is Slow with raised concerns on liquidity & Devalued Yunan & US Markets has weekly Breakdown (Markets are Distributing Stocks on Good News are now Ferouscliously Selling.Europe CAG DAX & FTSE have given Fresh Breaking Downs (Global Markets are Now at Resistance. Syncronisation in BreakDowns is seen after Creating Double Tops.Also Global Liquidity is Drying,interest Rates http://in.advfn are increasing ..All Equity Markets are on Risk OFF Mode .com/world

The Mighty 10 Index - Top Sector & Index weighted % Wise ( 0/10 ) Extremely Negative INDEX HDFC At Resistance after Pullback from 52 Week Low after Death Cross FINANCE ICICIBANK Pullback from weekly Support after Death cross ENERGY RELIANCE Up from Bottom f Range Death Cross awaited IT INFY Creating a Double Top but Price are above 200 SMA FMCG ITC In Downtrend Pullback from Weekly Support AUTO TATAMOTORS Above 200SMA into Weekly Supply Zone, Death Cross awaited PHARMACEUTICALS SUNPHARMA Breakdown from Life Highs & Retest of Top Done (With Lower High) CAPITAL GOODS L&T Pullback in Downtrend awaited Breakdown from Resistance at 50SMA & 200SMA METALS TATASTEEL At Life Lows Pullback in Downtrend Completed CEMENT ULTRACEMCO Downtrend after Breakdown from 6 month Range & Death Cross NB: These notes are just personal musings on the markets, trends etc, as a sort of reminder to me on what I thought of them at a particular point in time. They are not predictions and none should rely on them for any investment decisions. Readers Discretion Expected. Advocate to Consult Your Financial Advisor before any Investment as Investment in any market may be Lost in its Entirety. Strictly for Entertainment Purpose Only.