NESA Support Package

IAEA Tools for Energy System Planning and Nuclear Energy System Modelling
IAEA/INPRO group

Part I IAEA Tools for Energy System Planning

Based on Training Material of Planning and Economic Studies Section Department of Nuclear Energy International Atomic Energy Agency

Introduction

Content

Energy system planning and INPRO assessment Energy Tools and Methodologies for Energy Planning

IAEA Analytical Tools for Energy Planning

MAED MESSAGE WASP FINPLAN SIMPACTS ISED
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Energy system planning and INPRO assessment

Development of energy demand scenarios National, regional, global

Energy system planning

Evaluation of energy supply options National, regional, global

Part I

Specification of the potential role of nuclear power to contribute to mix of energy supply National, regional, global

Modeling of NES

Selection of components of NES Modelling of NES

Part II

NESA using the INPRO methodology

Holistic Nuclear Energy System Assessment in all INPRO areas WS NESA Kazakhstan, 2011

Energy Tools and Methodologies for ES Planning

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IAEA Analytical Tools for Energy Planning

Model for the Analysis of Energy Demand Wien Automatic System Planning Package MAED WASP

Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives and MESSAGE their General Environmental impacts Financial Analysis of Electric Sector Expansion FINPLAN Plans Simplified Approach for Estimating Impacts of SIMPACTS Electricity Generation Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development
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ISED

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Development of energy demand scenarios

Overall energy situation : national energy resource endowment, technology options, economic structural change, environmental impacts, social developments and policy aspects

Economic and demographic growth, structural economic change and the dynamics of sectoral energy intensities

MAED
Energy demand Scenario

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MAED: Model for Analysis of Energy Demand

Final Energy Demand

Social Data Economic Data Technological Data

MAED
Module1 Module 2

Final Energy Demand Electricity Demand Hourly Electric Load Load Duration Curves

Development Policies Base Year

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Methodological Approach of MAED

Final Energy Demand

Industry
Transportation

Household

Service

Energy End-uses:
Thermal, Mechanical, Specific, Non-Energy Energy efficiencies, Market penetrations

Fuel Types:
Oil, Gas, Traditional, Renewable, Nuclear
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Methodological Approach of MAED

MAED methodology comprises the following sequence of operation

(1) disaggregation of the total energy demand of the

country or region into a large number of end-use categories in a coherent manner; (2) identification of the social, economic and technological parameters which affect each end-use category of the energy demand; (3) establishing in mathematical terms the relationships which relate energy demand and the factors affecting this demand; (4) developing (consistent) scenarios of social, economic and technological development for the given country; (5) evaluation of the energy demand resulting from each scenario;
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MAED: Hourly Electric Power Demand

Model takes into account :

The trend of the average annual growth rate of electricity demand; The seasonal changes in electricity consumption (this variation may be reflected on a monthly or weekly basis, depending on available information); The changes in electricity consumption owing to the type of day being considered (i.e. working days, weekends, special holidays etc.); The hourly variation in electricity consumption during the given type of day considered.
1.5 1 0.5 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 20 2 22 23 24

Hourly Electric Load Load Duration Curves

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Nuclear energy demand scenario: simple approach

An assessor may base his assumptions for the nuclear energy demand on data provide by authoritative studies performed by energy policy organizations within his country or by other international organizations, or; An assessor may construct a general energy demand, and a nuclear energy demand, based on simple generic assumptions starting from trends in population growth, energy use per capita, technological readiness and typical market share potential, and expected evolution of market share for nuclear energy systems . This simplistic approach is based on considering three factors, expected population growth, per capita gross domestic product (GDP), and electricity intensity as a function of GDP.

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Nuclear energy demand scenario: simple approach

Study for Armenia

Energy and Nuclear Power Planning Study for Armenia, 1999-2020, TECDOC-1404, July 2004
per capita GDP $ 462 in 1999 to $ 1552 reference growth , $ 1019 low growth in 2020, the population growth from 3.2 million in 1999 to 3.26 million in 2020, The electricity demand 0.41 GW.yr in 1999. simple approach gives: (0.41/3.2)x3.26x(1552/462) = 1.40 GW.yr for the reference scenario, and (0.41/32.)x3.26x(1019/462) = 0.92 GW.yr, for the low growth scenario. The detailed analysis yields 1.30 GW.yr and 01.03 GW.yr for the two scenarios respectively. Study for Lithuania,

Energy Supply Options for Lithuania, TECDOC-1408, September 2004

total GDP increases by a factor of 2.468 between 2000 and 2025 in the base scenario simple approach gives the same factor. Detailed analysis projects an increase of a factor of 2.238

Study for Poland

Comparative Studies on Energy Supply Options in Poland for 1997-2020, TECDOC-1304,

August 2002
population increases from 38.66 million to 40.34 million per capita income increases for a total increase over the period by a factor of 2.47. simple approach gives a factor of (40.34/38.660x2.47) = 2.58. Electrical intensity of GDP was also expected to decrease by an average factor of about 25 % over this period, thus demand for electrical energy is 1.93 Detailed modeling gives essentially the same result.

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Evaluation of energy supply options National, regional, global

This kind of energy planning study has to consider many aspects such as the availability of fuels (fossil fuels, uranium, etc.) and the reliability of their supply, sufficiency of domestic supply to meet the projected demand, the possibility for energy imports, potential for energy exports, industrial capacity and the ability to supply components of a proposed energy system, the technical characteristics of the supply options such as unit sizes, times between maintenance outages, characteristic capacity factors, grid size, peak to base load demand, and the current development of the energy infrastructure. In general the selection of energy supply options will be based on driving forces such as economic considerations (e.g., availability of capital, cost of energy services, etc.), taking into account constraints such as the availability of fuels, the need to limit environmental emissions , and the desire to limit imports and diversify fuel types for strategic reasons, etc.

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Specifying the national role of nuclear energy and the selection of NES

Share of nuclear in total demand Expansion rate of total& nuclear demand Time of nuclear introduction Size of plant Grid size Specification of NES components

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MESSAGE Introduction Model for Energy Supply System Alternatives and their General Environmental impacts

1. 2. 3. 4.

Developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. IAEA adapted and further developed it, and also added a userinterface. It is a software designed for setting up optimization models of energy supply systems in the medium to long-term considering their general environmental impacts. Optimization Criterion: Minimizing total system cost (value of the objective function). Mathematical Techniques: Linear programming, Mixed-integer programming
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MESSAGE Model Overview A Physical Flow Model

Given a vector of demands, the model assures
sufficient supply, utilising the available resources and technologies Definition of:

energy levels: primary, secondary, final, useful energy forms (ex. coal, heat) and energy services actually used energy technologies: inputs, outputs, efficiencies domestic resources and imports of energy

Technologies in MESSAGE represent a process that

converts one energy form into another energy form or into energy
service e.g. conversion of crude oil to oil products, oil products to electricity, electricity to light transfers/transmits/distributes an energy form supplies/produces an energy form (e.g. hydro power, oil import)
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MESSAGE INPUT&OUTPUT
INPUT
600

OUTPUT
500 400

TW h

Energy system structure (including vintage of plant and equipment) Base year energy flows and prices Energy demand projections (MAED) Technology and resource options & their techno-economic performance profiles Technical and policy constraints

biomass geoth hydro

MESSAGE

300

nuclear gas diesel fuel oil

200

coal

100

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026

Primary and final energy mix Emissions and waste streams Health and environmental impacts (externalities) Resource use Land use Import dependence Investment requirements

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Energy Flow Network in MESSAGE

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MESSAGE Features Demand Fluctuations: the Load Curve Sub-division of a year: e.g. by seasons
Number of seasons, Division of each season by type of day Division of each type of day by parts
Seasons, (Winter, Summer, etc.)

Working/Off Days

Hours

Maximum 64 divisions possible

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MESSAGE Features Relations and Constraints

This is a powerful feature of MESSAGE and helps the user model a specific strategy for the development of the energy system. The model provides a flexible framework to define various types of relationships, between the technologies or between technologies and resources, such as:
i. ii. iii. Limit on a technology in relation to some other technologies (e.g., fixing share of renewable in total electricity generation). A common limit to be met by a set of technologies (e.g., maximum limit on emission of SO2 from all technologies emitting it). Constraints between production and installed capacity (e.g., ensure takeor-pay clauses in international gas contracts forcing customers to consume a minimum share of the contracted level during summer months).

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Assessment of environmental impacts The inclusion of environmental emissions in the model is described as follows:

Air pollution is modelled proportionally to the energy flows

of each energy conversion process or fuel. Cost and investment, existing capacities, availability, energy consumption and other characteristics of the emission control technologies are described by a set of parameters. Emission control policies or targets are modelled by putting upper limits on either the emission flows or on emission concentrations in flue gases. Taxes are applied for CO2, SO2, NOx and dust to analyse their impact on emission levels caused by the induced changes in the energy sector.
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MESSAGE Approaches to Nuclear Modeling

Spent fuel
Mining/Milling Spent Fuel

Reactor F R O N T E N D Conversion Disposal

B A C K E N d

Enrichment

Fresh fuel
Fuel Fabrication

Reprocessing

Pu

Using MESSAGE nuclear can be modelled with different level of details: from general description of energy flows conversion (same as for technologies consuming hydrocarbon fuels) to detailed modelling fuel reloads and nuclear isotopes flows through nuclear fuel cycle
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Representation of NPP
Recourses Primary Front End Back end Secondary Final

Coal PP Coal-Extr Elec_TD

Oil_PP Oil_Imp Oil_S_F Oil_P_S

NPP NPP fuel

NPP fuel coal coal oil

NPP SF Electricity

oil Electricity oil

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Special Features of NPPs

Capital intensive technology with big unit size Initial core/final core, Limited flexibility in operation, Shut down for refueling Discharge of spent fuel Long life time Decommissioning

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MESSAGE
MESSAGE is an extremely Flexible Model
MESSAGE is a flexible framework that allows detailed description of the energy system being modelled. It needs users ingenuity to define the system and probe policy questions The MESSAGE can be used to develop a model of a system other than energy system.

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Example
of conceptual modelling framework from
Brazil: A Country Profile on Sustainable Energy Development

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Global Estimation of Energy Demand

Tatsuya Hanaoka, Reina Kawase, Mikiko Kainuma, et al. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Scenarios Database and Regional Mitigation Analysis. CGERREPORT. CGER-DO38-2006. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan, 2006. http://wwwcger.nies.go.jp/publication/D038/all_D038.pdf

Global Primary Energy Demand

6000 5000 4000 EJ 3000 2000 1000 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 yr 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
INTERNATIONAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, Special Report on Emission Scenarios, A Special Report of Working Group III, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge (2000), http://www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission/in dex.htm

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Global Estimation of Nuclear Energy Demand

WNA
Nuclear Power Capacity Requirement
20000

Major Nuclear Programmes Canada

2008

2030 Low 20 50 65 20 55 45 20 120 531 2030 Low 4 1 10 30

2030 High 30 150 75 70 70 80 30 180 951 2030 High 11 0 25 86 2030 High 10 6 2 15 4 112 2030 High 20 5 8 1289

2060 Low 25 150 80 60 80 75 30 150 887 2060 Low 5 1 30 64 2060 Low 6 3 3 10 4 78 2060 Low 10 5 4 1140

2060 High 40 750 110 350 140 180 80 400 2538 2060 High 30 1 50 251 2060 High 40 35 5 50 30 300 2060 High 40 10 40 3538

2100 Low 30 500 80 200 80 100 40 250 1627 2100 Low 10 2 30 102 2100 Low 10 5 5 20 6 126 2100 Low 25 5 20 2062

2100 High 85 2800 130 2750 200 200 140 1200 8443 2100 High 90 4 55 694 2100 High 90 175 20 160 120 910 2100 High 70 14 200 11046

Capacity in GWe 13 9 63 4 48 22 11 99 363 2008 1 0 2 4

Ave of the top 5%

China France India Japan Russia United Kingdom

15000

GWe

IPPC
10000

5000

Average

United States SUBTOTAL Smaller Nuclear Programmes

0 2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2070

2080

2090

2100

Argentina Armenia South Africa SUBTOTAL

1600 1400 1200 1000 G W e 800 600 400 200 0 2009 2019 2029 2039 2049

2030 Nations Planning Nuclear 2008 Low

Low Estimate High Estimate

Egypt

0 0 0 0 0 0

3 2 0 5 2 30

IAEA

Indonesia Kazakhstan Turkey Vietnam SUBTOTAL Potential Entrants Italy Portugal Other WORLD TOTAL

2030 2008 Low 0 0 0 367 7 0 0 604

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WASP
Wien Automatic System Planning Package
INPUT

OUTPUT

Load forecast Existing system Candidates Constraints:

Reliability Implementation Fuel Generation Emissions

WASP

Build schedule Generation Costs Fuel consumption Emissions

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FINPLAN
Financial Analysis of Electric Sector Expansion Plans
INPUT

OUTPUT
For each year:

Investment programme (= capacity additions) & operating expenses Economic and fiscal parameters (inflation, escalation, exchange rates, taxes) Financial parameters (credits, bonds)

Cash flows Balance Sheet, Statement of Sources, Applications of Funds Financial Ratios: - Working Capital Ratio - Leverage ratio - Debt Repayment Ratio - - Global Ratio

FINPLAN

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SIMPACTS
Simplified Approach for Estimating Impacts of Electricity Generation
INPUT OUTPUT
Case 1 (minimum data requirements): pollutant emission rates regional population density (< 1000 km) source location (urban/rural) Case 1 (minimal results): uniform world model (UWM) estimate for total exposure quantification of health impacts monetisation of impacts

Estimate 1

Case 2 (some more data): stack characteristics local population (<50 km) Case 3 (even more data): local meteorological data (wind directions & speed) population around the source (10x10 km)

Estimate 2

Case 2 (more output): estimates 1 adjusted for effective stack height (including H+Vexit+Texit) Case 3 (even more output): Gaussian plume used for local exposure and impact estimate estimates 2 adjusted for more accurate pollutant & receptor distribution
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Estimate 3

Evaluating Successful Development Strategies

ISED: Indicators for Sustainable Energy Development

Measuring. Energy Accessibility Energy Affordability Energy Security Energy Efficiency/Intensity Environmental Impact
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Energy Indicators for Sustainable Development:

Social dimension (4 indicators); Examples:

Share of households (or population) without electricity or commercial energy, or heavily dependent on non-commercial energy Share of household income spent on fuel and electricity

Economic dimension (16 indicators); Examples:

Energy use per capita Energy use per unit of GDP Sectoral energy intensities

Environmental dimension (10 indicators); Examples:

GHG emissions from energy production and use, per capita and per unit of GDP Air pollutant emissions from energy system
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Example of national and regional case studies

A major priority for Brazil is to satisfy growing energy demand fuelled by population and economic growth, and to balance this effort with environmental priorities and other issues such as energy affordability, accessibility, security and efficiency. A comprehensive study of Brazils energy system shows that: Energy expenses often take a bigger share of the budgets of the poor, and The poor consume less electricity and mainly for basic needs

Policies proposed in this study (e.g. expansion of natural gas supply and use, renewable energy portfolio standards, expansion of production and use of ethanol fuel, and educed electricity demand and fuel use) may represent effective mechanisms to achieve higher levels of sustainable energy .
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Options for Energy Supply After the Closing of the Ignalina NPP
The goal is to evaluate the future supply options after the closing of the Ignalina NPP and the implications of the timing of its closing

Economic impacts Fuel supply security Environmental impacts
Fuel Consumption with and without nuclear power
5 0 0 0 .0 4 5 0 0 .0 4 0 0 0 .0 thous. t o.e. 3 5 0 0 .0 3 0 0 0 .0 2 5 0 0 .0 2 0 0 0 .0 1 5 0 0 .0 1 0 0 0 .0 5 0 0 .0 0 .0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2012 2014 2016 2020 2022 2024 2010 2018 thous. t o.e. P eat N uc lear C oal R e n e w a b le s G as O r im u l s i o n O il 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2014 2018 2020 2022 2024 2012 2016 P eat N uc lear C oal R e n e w a b le s G as O r im u l s i o n O il

Ye a r

Ye a r

a) Closing of Ignalina by the end of 2009 leads to high dependence on gas import

b) Replacing Ignalina by a new NPP reduces import dependency, increases fuel diversity
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Example of national case studies

A Country Profile of Cuba presents a comprehensive assessment of the Cuban energy system performed within a sustainable development framework.

A Country Profile of South Africa explores a variety of energy options for enhanced access and affordability

Assessing policy options for increasing the use of renewable energy for sustainable development: Modelling energy scenarios for Sichuan, China

IAEA prepared a study on Ghana under the umbrella of UN-Energy (UN interagency energy group) to model renewable policy options

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Mechanisms for IAEA Assistance

Technical Co-operation Projects Co-ordinated Research Projects Regional/National Workshops

and

Training Courses

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eTraining (Distance Learning)

The IAEA has expanded its training services with the use of specially designed web oriented training packages for distance learning. These packages are being used for on-line delivery of training through web based learning management and audio/video conferencing technologies.

Video Conferences

On-Line Tutor

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MESSAGE Distance Learning Package together with Demo Cases (Russian version )

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Distance Learning Package (Russian version of MESSAGE )

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Energy Models Dissemination Growing Demand for Training

120 Member States are using IAEAs Energy Models

700 Number of persons trained 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 eTraining Coventional

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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Follow-up Expert Support

Tele-Support Expert Service for IAEAs Energy Models Users Requests for trouble-shooting Questions on modelling problems Queries on updates, etc WS NESA Kazakhstan, 2011

Summary
The IAEAs set of models provides a comprehensive analytical framework for exploring a range of energy issues and informing sound policy decisions for the development of the energy sector. These models are used for developing national energy plans and to frame energy laws and regulations for restructured markets. The models are also being used to prepare national communications to UNFCCC on greenhouse gas inventories. Taken together the models provide broad coverage of all the important energy issues, they collectively have the flexibility to be adapted to the often very different constraints, needs and applications appropriate to different developing countries.
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Thank you for your attention www.IAEA.org/INPRO

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