Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com. ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant research firm in Melbourne, FL.

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September 10, 2013 The Nasdaq sets a new multi-year high at 3708.41.

The yield on the US Treasury 10-Year note traded between 2.875% and 2.951% on Monday with the 30-Year bond between 3.815% and 3.922%. The rise in yields continues to be overdone as shown on weekly charts. Gold traded relatively flat on Monday between $1381.9 the Troy ounce and $1395.0. The 50-day SMA is $1324.1 with the 200-day SMA at $1496.8. The weekly chart remains positive with the five-week MMA at $1364.0 and the 200-week SMA at $1473.2. Crude oil traded between $109.26 and $110.46 per barrel on Monday as my semiannual pivot at $109.84 remains a magnet. The daily chart is positive with the 50-day SMA at $105.76. The weekly chart remains overbought with the five-week MMA at $106.84 and the 200-week SMA at $90.65. The euro vs. the dollar traded between 1.3169 and 1.3279 on Monday versus as my annual pivot at 1.3257 remains a magnet. The euro is above its 50-day and 200-day SMAs at 1.3203 and 1.3147. The weekly chart is neutral with the five-week MMA at 1.3234 with the 200-week SMA at 1.3360. 10-Year Note (2.905) Daily and semiannual value levels are 3.014 and 3.227 with weekly, monthly, annual, and semiannual risky levels at 2.858, 2.725, 2.476, 1.981 and 1.719. Comex Gold ($1386.3) Daily and monthly value levels are $1374.0 and $1224.6 with weekly, annual, quarterly and annual risky levels at $1424.6, $1599.9, $1603.0 and $1852.1. Nymex Crude Oil ($109.05) Daily, monthly and quarterly value levels are $108.38, $105.67 and $91.75 with weekly and semiannual pivots at $109.11 and $109.84, and annual risky level at $115.23. The Euro (1.3256) Daily, monthly and semiannual value levels are 1.3056, 1.3111, 1.2756 and 1.2477 with an annual pivot at 1.3257, and weekly and annual risky levels at 1.3450 and 1.4295. This year I have often said that if you cant confirm cycle highs then look for new highs. The Nasdaq has led this setting a new multi-year high at 3708.41 on Monday. The others are below their earlyAugust all time highs at 15,658.43 on Aug 2 for Dow Industrials, 1709.67 on Aug 2 for S&P 500, 6686.86 on Aug 1 for Dow Transports and 1063.52 on Aug 5 for the Russell 2000. For stocks to confirm the early-August highs as cycle highs all five major equity averages need to end the week below their five-week MMAs with declining 12x3x3 weekly slow stochastic readings. This has not happened. The five-week MMAs are 15,103 Dow Industrials with declining mojo, 1661.0 S&P 500 with declining mojo, 3624 Nasdaq with overbought mojo, 6407 Dow Transports with declining mojo, and 1029.34 Russell 2000 with declining mojo.

This weeks pivots are 14,965 Dow Industrials, 1663.7 S&P 500 and 3671 Nasdaq with this weeks risky levels at 6460 Dow Transports and 1038.99 Russell 2000. My quarterly and annual value levels remain at 14,288 / 12,696 Dow Industrials, 1525.6 / 1348.3 S&P 500, 3284 / 2806 Nasdaq, 5348 / 5469 Dow Transports, and 863.05 / 860.25 / 809.54 Russell 2000. My monthly and semiannual risky levels are 16,336 / 16,490 Dow Industrials, 1766.8 / 1743.5 S&P 500, 3772 / 3759 Nasdaq, 7061 / 7104 Dow Transports and 1093.07 / 1089.42 Russell 2000. The major averages straddle their 50-day SMAs at 15,249 Dow Industrials, 1666.67 S&P 500, 3602 Nasdaq, 6418 Dow Transports and 1032.96 Russell 2000. Daily Dow: (15,063) Quarterly and annual value levels are 14,288 and 12,696 with daily and weekly pivots at 15,052 and 14,965, the August 2 all time high at 15,658.43, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 16,336 and 16,490. S&P 500 (1671.7) Quarterly and annual value levels are 1631.0, 1525.6 and 1348.3 with daily and weekly pivots at 1670.1 and 1663.7, the August 2 all time high at 1709.67, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1766.8 and 1743.5. NASDAQ (3706) Quarterly and annual value levels are 3592, 3284 and 2806 with daily and weekly pivots at 3710 and 3671, the September 9 multi-year high at 3708.42, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 3772 and 3759. NASDAQ 100 (NDX) (3170) Quarterly and annual value levels are 2983 and 2463 with daily and weekly pivots at 3176 and 3126, the September 9 multi-year high at 3174.87, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 3185 and 3304. Dow Transports (6460) Daily, annual and quarterly value levels are 6391, 5925, 5469 and 5348 with a weekly pivot at 6460, the August 1 all time high at 6686.86, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 7061 and 7104. Russell 2000 (1046.08) Daily, weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 1041.31, 1038.99, 863.05, 860.25 and 809.54 with the August 5 all time high at 1063.52, and monthly and semiannual risky levels at 1093.07 and 1089.42. The SOX (481.42) Weekly, quarterly and annual value levels are 454.53, 404.59 and 338.03 with daily, monthly and semiannual risky levels at 487.92, 516.08 and 533.56. Dow Utilities: (475.61) My daily value level is 470.92 with semiannual and weekly risky levels at 481.92 and 482.27 and quarterly, semiannual, monthly and annual risky levels at 510.38, 523.33, 530.89 and 540.37. To learn more about ValuEngine check out www.ValuEngine.com. Any comments or questions contact me at RSuttmeier@gmail.com.
"Buy and Trade Replaces Buy and Hold" An Evening with ValuEngine Chief Market Strategist Richard Suttmeier Florida AAII Chapter Meeting, Wednesday, September 18, 2013 at 6:30PM

University Club of Winter Park 841 N. Park Ave. Winter Park, FL 32789
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