centreforfuturestudies

strategic futures consultancy

winning the olympic games in 2020

insight briefing

centreforfuturestudies

Grayling Grayling is the worlds second largest independent Public Relations, Public Affairs, Investor Relations and Events consultancy with specialist services including CSR, environment and sustainability and digital. Grayling has 900 staff in 70 offices in 40 countries across the US, Western and Eastern Europe, Africa and Asia Pacific. Portland House Bressenden Place London SW1E 5BH United Kingdom Tel: +44 (0) 20 7932 1850 http://www.grayling.com/ Centre for Future Studies The Centre for Future Studies (CFS) is a strategic futures consultancy enabling organisations to anticipate and manage change in their external environment. Our foresight work involves research and analysis across the spectrum of political, economic, social and technological themes. Our clients include national and international companies, not-for-profit organisations, government departments and agencies. Centre for Future Studies Innovation Centre Kent University Canterbury, Kent CT2 7FG +44 (0) 1227 709575 insights@futurestudies.co.uk www.futurestudies.co.uk September 2010

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

centreforfuturestudies

Contents
Introduction Synopsis Rio de Janeiro sets the scene The potential contenders Past host cities The 2016 Results Qualitative selection factors drawn from past bids experience 2012 Olympic Bid London 2016 Olympic Bid Rio Appendix 4 5 7 10 18 19 20 21 22

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

centreforfuturestudies

Introduction
The competition to host the 2020 Summer Olympics, officially known as the Games of the XXXII Olympiad, has yet to begin. The selection process will start in 2011 and a host nation is expected to be announced in mid 2013. Nonetheless, nations are already vying to win the prize of hosting this mega international sports and cultural festival. The selection process and the criteria used to evaluate applications are well documented. However, it has been observed in the past that the IOC members do not vote based on the quality of the bid alone and often the results are unpredictable. There are other qualitative factors (invisible dynamics) which are taken into account including geopolitics, IOC politics, public support, commercial interests and creativity; all of which are considered to have an impact on the IOC voters. Grayling, working in collaboration with the Centre for Future Studies, has investigated the qualitative factors likely to influence the IOC over and above the technical criteria set out in the questionnaires. This Insight Briefing narrates the key findings of the research and analysis.

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

centreforfuturestudies

Synopsis
The conclusions reached are the result of research and analyses into the experience of past Summer Olympic bids, the forces of change and the lessons that can be drawn from the BidIndex (See Appendix) In particular, the successful bids of London for the 2012 Olympics and of Rio de Janeiro for the 2016 Olympics were used as models for identifying the invisible dynamics at play as both bids illustrate that the IOC vote is not based on the quality of the bid alone and often the results are unpredictable. The key findings are: A strong technical bid is not sufficient to win the Olympics. The bid must be communicated with creative zeal and passion. As President Lula of Rio said; The other countries made proposals. We presented a heart and soul. World leaders are now key to the success of any Olympic bid. Communicating a steadfast commitment to the IOCs ideals and mission is essential as confirmed by Tony Blairs lobbying for London and President Lulas powerful advocacy of Rio. IOC politics are a major factor in the invisible dynamics at play. In this context, bid communicators recognise the critical importance of the media in delivering messages to IOC members. It is clear that a highly-skilled and experienced communications team is required to win an Olympic bid.

The economics of the Olympics are such that the IOC shows a statistical tendency to base its decision on the economic vitality of a bid citys home country. Communicating this vitality is a paramount consideration.

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

centreforfuturestudies
The IOC has consistently stressed the need for continental diversity but this factor alone is not an overriding consideration. Communicating international stature is equally as persuasive. The bidding city must clearly demonstrate how hosting the Olympics will turn the Olympic ideal of social transformation into a permanent reality. Rio effectively communicated how hosting the games would enable the city, region and country to achieve their long term aspirations for the future.

The consistent factor is communication at all levels with the communities, stakeholders, consumers and participants involved in the games.

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

centreforfuturestudies

Rio de Janeiro sets the scene

On 2 October 2009 in Copenhagen, Rio de Janeiro won the right to host the 2016 Summer Games in a landslide victory over finalist Madrid. From the bottom of my heart, I should say this is the most emotional day in my life," said Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. "Rio deserves it, and Brazil deserves it." This will be the first time that the Summer Olympics have been held in South America.

At the outset it was Chicago that was the frontrunner and it was assumed that President Obamas visit to Copenhagen would seal the deal. Rio's bid had been consistently criticised by the IOC's own evaluation commission. On paper many of its elements appeared to rank it weakest of the four shortlisted cities. But, Chicago received only 18 of the 94 votes available in the first round poll of IOC delegates; Madrid came out top with 28, followed by Rio on 26. Madrid's success in reaching the final round came after former IOC president Juan Antonio Samaranch made an emotional appeal. "I know that I am very near the end of my time. I am, as you know 89 years old. May I ask you to consider granting my country the honour and also the duty to organise the games in 2016".

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

centreforfuturestudies
Despite this powerful appeal, Rio almost secured the absolute majority needed to win outright in the second round, with 46 of the 95 votes cast. Madrid came a distant second with 29, while Tokyo was eliminated after receiving 20. The final ballot saw Rio win by a comprehensive margin of 66 votes to 32. IOC president Jacques Rogge said Rio had presented the IOC "with a very strong technical bid, built on a vision of the Games being a celebration of the athletes and sport, as well as providing the opportunity for the city, region and country to deliver their broader long-term aspirations for the future". "The call to 'live your passion' clearly struck a chord with my fellow members, and we now look forward to seeing Rio de Janeiro staging the first Olympic Games on the continent of South America," he said. After the final vote, President Lula said: "The other countries made proposals. We presented a heart and a soul.

Commentary
World leaders are now key to the success of any Olympic bid; witness Tony Blair's lobbying for London, Vladimir Putin's campaign for Sochi and now Lula's powerful advocacy of Rio. The International Olympic Committee members like to be courted. Some - though clearly not many - may have been impressed by President Obama's visit to Copenhagen but they wanted more than just a flying visit and 25-minute meet and greet in the conference centre. President Lula had been courting their vote for years. Through consistent communication he built the IOCs respect for his long-time commitment to Rio's campaign.

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

centreforfuturestudies
Rios bid was bolstered by Brazil's relative financial stability throughout the global economic downturn. The IOC shows a statistical tendency to base its decision on the economic vitality of a bid city's home country. Rio's projected expenses were the highest among the four bid cities at more than $14 billion because of the number of new venues and infrastructure needed. The need to maintain continental diversity. "Rios bid was strong because it is the wish of the Olympic movement to show more universality," Denis Oswald, IOC Executive Board member. "It's an important message to send the Summer Olympics to a place that never had the Olympic Games. It's an important message to the rest of the world that it's possible to host the Olympic Games." Frankie Fredericks, Namibian IOC member. Politics mean the result is far from a foregone conclusion It is impossible for anyone to know which city will win a bid. "I actually feel really sorry. Everybody was shocked about the result. That's this kind of vote. It's more an accident because everybody expected Chicago and Rio in the end, everybody." Rene Fasel, IOC member, Switzerland.

"It was clear there was an effort to make sure Rio got this, and the only meaningful threat to Rio would have been Chicago, so all the friends of Rio were urged to try and make sure Chicago didn't get into that position," Dick Pound IOC member, Canada. There's a lot of politics going on. This (host-city vote) isn't just on the merits." Bob Ctvrtlik, the USOC's Vice President, International. "

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

centreforfuturestudies

The potential contenders

Map of countries and cities considering bidding for the 2020 Olympic Games

Africa
With Rios 2016 award, Africa remains the only populated continent to have never hosted the Games. When discussing the Japanese bid, the Japanese Olympic Committee head Yasuhiro Nakamori revealed "the IOC suggested that if an African candidate emerged for 2020 they would be very strong contenders".

South Africa
On July 13, 2010, two days after the end of the FIFA World Cup in South Africa, South Africas governing Olympic body, the South African Sports Confederation and Olympic Committee SASCOC, announced that it would formally oversee a national bid for the 2020 Olympic Games and encouraged potential South African host cities to state their intention of being involved in the process. Cape Town Cape Town will most likely bid for the 2020 Summer Olympic Games, and plans on building on the foundation of the 2010 FIFA World Cup. The planned bid is supported by the Cape Chamber of Commerce.

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

10

centreforfuturestudies
Cape Town has hosted a number of World Championships in various sports including hockey, fencing, Modern Pentathlon, cycling, rugby, cricket and many others. Cape Town previously bid for the 2004 Olympic Games, placing third behind Rome and the winning city of Athens. Approximately 70% of the venues required for the Games will be in place by 2013. On 28 July 2010, at a full Council meeting, Mayor Dan Plato described the Olympic Games as the "next logical step". Durban Durban's plans to host the 2020 Summer Olympics were boosted by the IOC's selection of that city in 2008 as the venue for the IOC General Assembly's Congress in 2011. Acting chief executive of Durban Tourism Perry Moodley intimated that hosting the event was a tactical move in light of the city's plans to bid to host a Summer Olympics. On July 20, 2010, influential IOC member, Gerhard Heiberg, chairman of the committee's marketing commission, in relation to the 2020 Olympic bid, singled out Durban in stating that it will be time to consider Africa at some point." On August 10, 2010, the Chief Executive Officer of the Southern African Tourism Services Association SATSA, Michael Tatalias, endorsed Durban for a 2020 South African Olympic bid, stating that Durban was South Africa's "best placed city to bid" for the Olympics. In mid-August, 2010, Danny Jordaan, the Chief Executive Officer of the 2010 FIFA World Cup Local Organising Committee, expressed cautious optimism about Durban's bid to host the 2020 Olympic Games, stating that "Durban has what it takes" to host the Games. However, Nawal El Moutawakel, head of the International Olympic Committee's coordinating commission for Rio 2016 who also chaired the coordinating commission for London 2012, told Reuters that Africa is unlikely to host the Olympics for at least 20 years despite the success of the soccer World Cup in South Africa. Rabat, Morocco Rabat, the Moroccan capital, is expected to submit a bid for the 2020 Olympics. Officials from Morocco are confident that their capital will win the right to host the games; they chose Rabat as the bidding city, over the much larger Casablanca, stating that Rabat is more internationally significant. If a bid is submitted, it will be the first time Morocco has submitted a bid.

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

11

centreforfuturestudies

Asia
Busan, South Korea With the success of the 2002 Asian Games held in Busan, the city's mayor announced on November 14, 2005 to the Korean news agency Yonhap that they were planning to bid for the 2020 Olympic Games. The official bid was made during the 17th APEC forum held on November 18 and 19 in Busan. However, its bid in 2020 may be jeopardized if Pyeongchang wins its third bid for the 2018 Winter Olympics. South Korean capital Seoul hosted the games in 1988. Doha, Qatar The IOC rejected Doha's bid for the 2016 Summer Olympics, although fellow applicant and eventual host city Rio de Janeiro was accepted, despite the Brazilian city's lower score on the IOC's evaluation of bids. While Doha bid organizers accused the IOC of "closing the door on the Arab World", the IOC cited technical reasons for its rejection of the bid, such as Doha's insistence of holding the games in October. On August 7, 2008, Sheikh Tamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, the Heir Apparent of Qatar, revealed that the state will bid for the 2020 games. Sheikh Tamim, who is also the Chairman of the Qatar Olympic Committee QOC, said that Qatar was determined to learn from the lessons of its failed 2016 bid, and "bid for hosting the Olympic Games in 2020 as per set measures and standards." Dubai, United Arab Emirates Dubai has expressed great interest in a 2020 Olympic bid but has not formally announced it will bid. Dubai's hosting of Sportaccord 2010 has been a great way to show off Dubai's sport infrastructure. Dubai's ruler Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum said: "We will have to take an honest look at our weaknesses as well as our strengths," Sheikh Mohammed said on April 25. "I can assure you of this, though: if we decide to make a bid for the Olympics, we will be in it to win."
______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

12

centreforfuturestudies
The Olympic Games, if awarded to Dubai, would be the first time an Olympics has been held in a Middle East city, and the first time in an Islamic city. Dubais Sports City development of 50 million square feet, due for completion next year, and claimed to be the worlds first-ever integrated sporting city, could accommodate just about any event the Olympic Games needs. Japan Tokyo Soon after failing to win its bid to host the 2016 Olympics, intentions were expressed to try again for 2020. Tokyo hosted the 1964 Summer Olympics. Hiroshima and Nagasaki expressed interest in a joint bid as well; however, Japan has ruled out that joint bid and intends to focus solely on Tokyo's bid. Tokyo Governor Shintaro Ishihara said Tokyo may allow Hiroshima and Nagasaki to stage some events if the city is selected. However, the 2020 Olympic Games Japanese Olympic Committee chief, Tsunekazu Takeda, has expressed wariness after South Africa emerged as a new rival in Japans bid to host the 2020 Summer Olympics.

Europe
Budapest, Hungary On 18 December 2008, the assembly of the City of Budapest unanimously accepted the proposal for the Act on the Preparation of the Budapest Olympic Bid, prepared by the NGO Budapesti Olimpiai Mozgalom BOM. The proposal is to be presented to the Parliament of Hungary.

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

13

centreforfuturestudies
Istanbul, Turkey Turkish government sports official Mehmet Atalay said that Istanbul has decided to launch another Olympic bid, believing its chances are much stronger this time. Istanbul has four previous bids for the 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 Summer Games; it skipped the 2016 Games. Atalay said, "We didn't bid for 2016 because we were in a preparation period. ... We will keep on bidding until we get it. Rome, Italy On 2 October 2009, the Italian Olympic Committee CONI confirmed that Italy intends to put forward a bid for the 2020 Summer Olympic Games. Shortly after the International Olympic Committee IOC awarded Rio de Janeiro the Games for 2016, the President of CONI, Giovanni Petrucci, said: "The time has come for an Italian bid for the 2020 Games. Rio de Janeiro's victory surely gives Italy the possibility for 2020." The country hosted the 2006 Winter Olympics in Turin. Immediately after Petrucci's announcement, Rome and Venice announced their candidacies for an Italian bid. Bari, Palermo and the Romagna region also put in bids, but they did not meet the minimum requirements: "Rome and Venice are the only serious bidders, all the rest is just so much talk", Petrucci said. On 19 May 2010, CONI backed Rome over Venice as Candidate City for the 2020 Summer Olympics, citing greater experience and already existing sport and hospitality facilities as crucial factors for the choice. Giovanni Alemanno, Mayor of Rome, has thrown his full backing behind a Rome 2020 bid, saying: "The choice of Rio de Janeiro for the 2016 Games offers a big opportunity to Italy and Rome for the next edition in 2020. More than half a century after the fantastic Games of 1960, we can dream of bringing the Olympic rings back to the Italian capital." Rome previously hosted the 1960 Summer Olympics.

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

14

centreforfuturestudies
Madrid, Spain After failed attempts for both the 2012 and 2016 Summer Olympics, Madrid announced plans to bid for 2020 or 2024. However, on July 24, 2010, Alberto Ruiz Gallardon, Mayor of Madrid, announced that Madrid was putting any bid for an Olympic Games on hold in order to help the country with its bid for the 2018 World Cup finals and that no decision over a third attempt to hold the Olympic Games would be taken in the near future. Lisbon, Portugal The country's capital of Lisbon intends to enter for the 2020 competition. Typically, for a city to be considered eligible for hosting such a mammoth event as the Olympics, it must have already somewhat proven itself on the international scene. Portugal has already submitted its bids to host the 2018 and 2022 World Cup Football Championships, and if it could win the bid for the 2018 World Cup, such an accomplishment would improve Lisbon and Portugals chances of hosting a Summer Olympics. Lisbon has made the final plans for a new airport. The new airport, which will be located in the suburb of Alcochete, is to be completed by 2017 and will have the capacity to handle 40 million passengers annually. Once complete, it will be one the most sophisticated airports in the world. Saint Petersburg, Russia Governor Valentina Matviyenko has announced an intention to bid, having discussed the plan with the head of the ROC; governmental support has not been confirmed. 2024 is also a possibility. Saint Petersburg bid for the 2004 Summer Olympics but did not make the short list. Bucharest, Romania On 24 August 2010, Bucharest Mayor Sorin Oprescu announced intentions to host the 2020 Summer Olympic Games in Bucharest. This comes a few years after the Government announced a plan to bid for the 2022 Winter Olympics in Prahova Valley.

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

15

centreforfuturestudies

North America
By 2020, 24 years will have passed since the 1996 Summer Olympics in Atlanta, making it the continent with the longest waiting time since last hosting the Games except for Africa, which has never hosted. Mexico Guadalajara is hosting the 2011 Pan American Games while Monterrey has expressed interest in a sports festival for several years. The Mexican Olympic Committee (MOC) will announce the Mexican candidate city in 2012. Mexico City hosted the 1968 Summer Olympics. Guadalajara Guadalajara 2020, in conjunction with the Jalisco state government, supports a strategic project to consider a bid for 2020. The plans include the construction of several sports venues and ambitious urban development projects such as the JVC Center and the Chivas Stadium. Started in 1995, Guadalajara 2020 counts its successful bid for the 2011 Pan American Games as part of the strategy to gain experience in international sport events and develop world class sport infrastructure. Guadalajara was chosen by the MOC as the applicant city for the 2014 Summer Youth Olympics. Monterrey Monterrey considered a bid for the 2016 Games, but the Mexican Olympic Committee (MOC) did not support the bid. Felipe "El Tibio" Muoz, President of the MOC, announced that some cities in Mexico like Monterrey will endeavour to gain support to bid for the 2020 games. In August 2008, Nuevo Leon's governor gave his support for a possible bid. In February 2009, plans were announced to build the Estadio Internacional Monterrey, a 85,000 capacity stadium.

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

16

centreforfuturestudies
Toronto, Canada The Canadian Olympic Committee began working on a potential bid for the 2020 or 2024 games for Toronto in July 10, 2007. This would be Toronto's third bid for the Summer Olympics, after unsuccessful bids for the 1996 and 2008 games. Toronto has not hosted an international sporting event since the city hosted the 1976 Summer Paralympics. With the success of the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver and Toronto's ongoing preparations to host the 2015 Pan American Games, both factors are said to strengthen their 2020 Olympic bid. United States of America Several cities were considering a bid for the 2020 Summer Olympic Games. Some sources perceive that the United States had a better chance of success, as both New York and Chicago failed in their respective bids for the 2012 and 2016 games. However, during the Vancouver Olympics, USOC chief executive Scott Blackmun said that the US has no plans to bid at this time, citing that the IOC "doesn't want the games to be in the United States" and that potential cities in the United States cannot afford Olympic bids just to be spurned like Chicago and New York were.

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

17

centreforfuturestudies

Oceania
Brisbane, Australia Brisbane has been pre-selected by the Australian Olympic Committee as the next most likely Australian bid city for 2020 or 2024. This has been endorsed by Queensland Premier Anna Bligh and Brisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman. The city previously bid for the 1992 Olympics, coming 3rd to Barcelona and Paris.

Past host cities

1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 Montreal, Canada Moscow, Russia Los Angeles, United States Seoul, South Korea Barcelona, Spain Atlanta, United States 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 Sydney, Australia Athens, Greece Beijing, China London, United Kingdom Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

18

centreforfuturestudies The 2016 Results

121st Session International Olympic Committee October 2, 2009, in Bella Center, Copenhagen, Denmark. City Nation Rio de Janeiro Brazil Madrid Tokyo Chicago Spain Japan USA Round 1 Round 2 Round 3 26 46 66 28 22 18 29 20 32

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

19

centreforfuturestudies

Qualitative selection factors drawn from past bids experience

2012 Olympic Bid - London
The 2012 bid culminated at the election held on July 6, 2005 at the IOC session in Singapore. It was considered the best contested race in Olympic bid history and included five world capitals: London, Madrid, Moscow, New York and Paris. The bid committees brought high-profile delegates including politicians and celebrities. World leaders included British PM Tony Blair, French President Jacques Chirac and Russian President Vladimir Putin and among other dignitaries were Hilary Clinton and David Beckham. A record number of media personnel and delegates attended. While most considered Paris the frontrunner, last minute and aggressive marketing tactics by London helped push the British city to a narrow four vote victory. Madrid came third, New York fourth and Moscow fifth. The key to London's victory was the appointment of sportsman Seb Coe to lead the bid and businessman Keith Mills to market it internationally. Although the bid was slapped on the wrist by the IOC for being a bit too aggressive at times - the strategy paid off. Paris and Madrid mounted excellent campaigns but fell short at the end. New York designed their bid around a yet-to-beapproved new Olympic Stadium in Manhattan's West Side but approval was denied just days before the bid forcing organizers to scramble and come up with plan B, a less desirable Queens location for the stadium. Moscow was an outsider from the beginning and failed to impress. The promise of transforming a forgotten corner of London was the winning element of the citys bid to host the Olympic Games. Disconnected East End communities would be linked with one another and with the rest of London. Meanwhile, a safe and well connected area of new affordable housing would be created, with a massive new area of parkland on its doorstep. London would turn the Olympic ideal of social transformation into a reality.
Winning the Olympic Games in 2020 20

______________________________________________________________________________

centreforfuturestudies 2016 Olympic Bid - Rio

It was claimed that Rio de Janeiro won the bid to host the 2016 Summer Olympic Games because Sochi, host of the 2014 Winter Olympics, paved the way. "Sochi opened a gateway to the Olympic future for Rio and other emerging countries. There is a significant shift at work in the Olympic movement in favour of emerging countries such as Russia and Brazil. Dmitry Chernyshenko, Chief Executive Officer of Sochi 2014. It had been thought by some commentators that the International Olympic Committee (IOC) choose Rio over Chicago, Madrid and Tokyo because no South American country has ever hosted an Olympic Games before. The consensus however is that the key factor determining Rios success was the countrys ability to communicate successfully that Rio was ready. That message resonated with the IOC. The creation of the G-20 shortly before the IOC vote on the 2016 Games also added to the victory. Brazil will be the fifth largest economy by 2016, from 10th now, according to the World Bank. This clearly demonstrates President Lula and Brazil are now at the top table in international affairs.

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

21

centreforfuturestudies

APPENDIX The Bid Index

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

22

centreforfuturestudies

The Bid Index

BidIndex is a mathematical model developed by GamesBids.com that when applied to an Olympic Bid, produces a number that can be used to rate a bid relative to past successful bids - and possibly gauge its potential success. This complex model is a result of months of research and development by analysts with expertise in statistics, mathematics and the Olympic Bid process. Information for BidIndex is obtained from both public and inside sources. The primary model looks at the actual Olympic bids voted on by the International Olympic Committee. GamesBids.com BidIndex will also analyse selected bids with the National Olympic Committee (NOC) model. These are qualifying bids conducted by the NOC's While it is impossible for anyone to know which city will win a bid, BidIndex combines the current geopolitical and technical status of a bid and projects how it might compete based on past voting patterns. Since the IOC does not always pick the best quality bid, BidIndex evaluates other important factors such as Geopolitics, IOC politics, public support and other things considered to have an effect on the IOC voters.

______________________________________________________________________________

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020

23