OPEC - Oil Market Report September 2013

by Eduardo Petazze
The OPEC has released its Oil Market Report of September 2013 (pdf, 80 pages)
Forecast for 2013 - Required OPEC crude in 2013 estimated at 29.9 mb/d, down 0.5 mb/d from last year
Demand for OPEC crude in 2013 remained unchanged from the previous report to stand at 29.9 mb/d, representing a decrease
of 0.5 mb/d from last years level.
Within the quarters, the first quarter remained unchanged, while 2Q13 and 4Q13 saw an upward revision of around 0.1 mb/d.
In contrast, the demand for OPEC crude in3Q13 was revised down by 0.1 mb/d.
The first quarter is estimated to fall by 0.3mb/d versus the same quarter last year; while 2Q13 and 3Q13 are expected to see
negative growth of 0.6 mb/d and 1.1 mb/d respectively.
The fourth quarter is forecast to drop by 0.2mb/d versus the same quarter last year.
Forecast for 2014 - Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 forecast at 29.6 mb/d, 0.3 mb/d less than in the current year
Demand for OPEC crude in 2014 saw little change from the previous report to stand at 29.6 mb/d.
This represents a decline of 0.3 mb/d compared to a year earlier.
The first quarter remained unchanged from the previous assessment, while the second experienced a downward revision of 0.1
mb/d.
The first and second quarters are expected to show declines of 0.1 mb/d and 0.2 mb/d respectively, versus the same period last
year.
The third quarter is expected to remained flat; however, the four this forecast to drop by 1.0 mb/d versus the same quarter last
year.
Summarized supply/demand balance for 2013/2014,mb/d
mb/d Sep13
2012
(a) World oil demand
88.92
Non-OPEC supply
52.92
OPEC NGLs and non-conventionals
5.57
(b) Total supply excluding OPEC crude
58.48
Difference (a-b)
30.43
OPEC crude oil production
31.13
Balance
0.70
Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.

1Q13
88.86
53.82
5.76
59.58
29.28
30.22
0.94

2Q13
88.93
53.73
5.78
59.51
29.41
30.56
1.15

3Q13
90.20
54.09
5.81
59.90
30.30
30.40
0.10

4Q13
90.92
54.35
5.85
60.20
30.72

2013
89.74
54.00
5.80
59.80
29.93

1Q14
89.89
54.78
5.88
60.66
29.23

2Q14
89.85
54.70
5.93
60.63
29.22

3Q14
91.38
55.12
5.97
61.10
30.29

4Q14
91.94
56.24
6.01
62.25
29.69

2014
90.77
55.21
5.95
61.16
29.61

2Q13
88.96
53.76
5.78
59.51
29.41
30.57
1.16

3Q13
90.22
54.07
5.81
59.90
30.30
30.36
0.06

4Q13
90.89
54.55
5.85
60.20
30.72

2013
89.74
54.06
5.80
59.80
29.93

1Q14
89.89
54.83
5.88
60.66
29.23

2Q14
89.88
54.75
5.93
60.63
29.22

3Q14
91.40
55.18
5.97
61.10
30.29

4Q14
91.91
56.29
6.01
62.25
29.69

2014
90.78
55.27
5.95
61.16
29.61

PS:
Oil Market Report - October 2013 pdf, 82 pages
mb/d Oct13
2012
(a) World oil demand
88.92
Non-OPEC supply
52.92
OPEC NGLs and non-conventionals
5.57
(b) Total supply excluding OPEC crude
58.48
Difference (a-b)
30.43
OPEC crude oil production
31.13
Balance
0.70
Totals may not add up due to independent rounding.
Updated: Oct. 10, 2013

1Q13
88.86
53.85
5.76
59.58
29.28
30.22
0.94