International Conference on Mathematics and Natural Sciences (ICMNS)

November 29-30, 2006, Bandung-Indonesia

Case Analysis of Relationship between Rainfall Convection and Flood

Phenomena on January 2002 in DKI-Jakarta Area
Rahmat Gernowo 1 ; Bayong Tj. H.K.2; The H.L.3; Tri Wahyu Hadi 4 ; Ina Juaeni 5
1
Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Diponegoro University, Semarang
Jl. Prof. Sudarto, Tembalang Semarang.
2,4
Expertise of Atmosphere Science Group, Bandung Institute of Technology
3
Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences, Bandung Institute of Technology
5
Faculty of Earth Science and Mineral Technology, Bandung Institute of Technology
Jl. Ganesha No. 10 Bandung 40132
*Email: gernowo1@yahoo.com

Abstract
The dynamics of cloud rain especially in area of Jakarta represent to important matter in seeking
of step solution, to prevention of floods especially in Jakarta. The research of convection pattern above
area of DKI-Jakarta based on to existing perception data, especially high resolution satellite image which
is expected will give the understanding of growth of convection cloud yield torrential rains and deliver
floods in DKI-Jakarta.The result of research into whereas in this research is obtained by the rain study of
extreme in DKI-Jakarta. As rainfall data result of average from some stations is residing in DKI-Jakarta.
The rainfall data taken end 2001- early 2002 year, where happened the floods with pond more than 10 day
source data of Kimpraswil-Cilsi. The result of research is obtained by analysis whereas, that cloud
dynamics in DKI-Jakarta caused by local atmospheric circulation’s factor.

Keywords : Flood, cloud dynamics and satellite image.

during range of time the year 1990-2006, the
I. Introduction. biggest rainfall term as extremely rain happened
for once in the period.
The floods of natural disaster (see Fig, 1),
what knocks over approximate 70 % of all region a. 120
Curah Hujan b. 60
0-10m m
100 50 Series1

in DKI-Jakarta takes place from date 29 January

Curah Hujan (mm)

80 40
Frekuensi x 100

60

2002 to 10 February 2002 with pond height ranges

30

40
20

20

from 10-250 cm 1). The nature phenomenon 0

11/1/2001 12/1/2001 12/31/2001
Harian
1/30/2002 3/1/2002 3/31/2002
10

0
1
20mm

2
30mm

3
40m m

4
50m m

5
60m m

6
70m m

7
80m m

8
90mm

9
101m m

10

because of taking place torrential rains for hours

for area that is wide enough and added with
consignment floods which in bringing by river
passing DKI especially river of Ciliwung,
Pasanggrahan and Sunter 2).
Fig.1. The floods of natural disaster, DKI-Jakarta 2002.
The floods of disaster knocking over area
of Jakarta and its surroundings is because of big
and the duration close rainfall as case of
atmosphere change anomaly. The change anomaly
of atmosphere from rainfall, as in Fig. 2a and b
graph and rainfall histogram of Jakarta, with
maximum of rainfall time periodicity happened on
30 January 2002. As for from rainfall histogram
Fig. 2(a). Rainfall graph the year 2001-2002. (b).
Rainfall histogram during range of time the year 1990-
2006 of DKI-Jakarta
In this paper will be studied mechanism
the happening of extremely rain floods DKI
Jakarta the year 2002.The diurnal cycle of rainfall
and its regional variations are important in the
tropics, where the synoptic-scale cyclones that
cause rainfall in extratropical regions don’t exist.
Because tropical rainfall involves the up take and
release of significant amounts of latent heat of
vaporization 3). The extremely rainfall
phenomenon evaluated from effect synoptic which
is change of atmosphere regional, can be in the
form of factor change of condition of MJO
(Madden Julian Oscillation) and streamline of
wind (vortex) of area DKI-Jakarta. The periodicity
of MJO for the year 1996, however for the year
2002 in stable condition as Fig. 3a. Figure 3b
shows the amplitude variability of MJO by the end

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 International Conference on Mathematics and Natural Sciences (ICMNS)
November 29-30, 2006, Bandung-Indonesia

of January 2002, stays at phase 3-6 in normal II. Research Methodologies.

condition.
a. b. 3.5
Amplitudo MJO Fase MJO
9
As initial step in this research, be study to
convection pattern above area DKI Jakarta based
8
3
7
2.5

Amplitudo MJO
6

Fase MJO
1.5
2 5

4 on the observation data, especially high resolution

3

0.5
1
2
1
satellite image which will give understanding
0
1-Jun-01 31-Jul-01 29-Sep-01 28-Nov-01
HARIAN
27-Jan-02 28-Mar-02 27-May-02
0

about growth pattern of convection cloud yielding

Fig. 3(a). The periodicity of MJO for the year 1995-
2005. (b). Amplitude variability of MJO by the end of
January 2002 of DKI-Jakarta
The case streamline of wind (vortex) is
from date 23 ending 26 January 2002 as in Fig. 4a.
The result of analysis is explains case of tropical
cyclone in region of Indonesia south happened in
one years average of seven cases with monthly
rainfall stays to average value with anomaly 12,6
mm 4).
a. b.
torrential rains and delivers floods in region DKI-
Jakarta.
The Cloud dynamics analysis with
determination of extreme rainfall of floods cause is
region in DKI Jakarta, cloud types analysis based
on data visible satellite obtained from data center
in University of Wisconsin-Madison Space
Science and Engineering Center (SSEC)
(http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/datacenter/). Then as
step of hereinafter, analyses change pattern of
amplitude MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) and
120
OLR (Out going Long wave Radiation), this thing
100
Curah Hujan

done to see domination of effect regional (effect

80

synoptic) or local effect to case of floods DKI

curah hujan (mm)

60

40

20
Jakarta the year 2002.
0
30-Dec-01 4-Jan-02 9-Jan-02 14-Jan-02 19-Jan-02 24-Jan-02 29-Jan-02 3-Feb-02 8-Feb-02
Harian

Fig. 4 (a). The streamline of wind (vortex) is from date III. Results and Analysis.
26-1-2002. (b). The rainfall of Bandung at January
2002. The extremely rain phenomenon is
analyzed based on cloud dynamics pattern (IR1
It is concluded that tropical cyclone Temperature data) in DKI-Jakarta. The growth
winds are convectively unstable. A review of past pattern of cloud is started on 27 January 2002, but
measurements provides overwhelming evidence of growth of maximum cloud happened on 29
higher turbulence intensities, guest factor, and January 2002 started when 00-03 UTC (07-09
turbulence integral length scales in the tropical WIB) and finished on 30 January 2002 (Fig. 5a).
cyclone boundary layer as compared with those
obtained under neutral conditions. This is a direct a. b.
consequence of convective instability and the
additional influence of convective activity above
the boundary layer. Instability in the tropical
cyclone also causes the mean and gust wind
profiles to be flatter than the neutral boundary
layer profiles 5). Which if effect synoptic
Fig.5(a). Change pattern of IR1 Temperature 29-
predominating hence rainfall there will be across
January 2002, at 00 UTC in DKI-Jakarta. (b). Graph of
the board as impact of the effect 6), as seen from Time Series IR1 Temperature (diurnal variation) 29-
case of rainfall Bandung area at January 2002 (Fig. Januari-2002, at 00 UTC in DKI-Jakarta.
4b) doesn't show extreme of rainfall variability.
Based on the thing, hence extremely rainfall that The study in this research will be
caused floods in DKI-Jakarta is dominated by analyzed from data AVN for date on 28 to 30
local factor. In this handing out study is continued January 2002 in DKI-Jakarta. Data of contour
with analyzing cloud dynamics at case period of pattern AVN for example covering divergence by
extremely rain. streamline of wind, absolute vorticity, pressure
vertical velocity and atmosphere column
precipitable water obtained from data
NCEP/NCAR (see fig. 6 and 7). Data of every 6
hours from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data was
used to know that extremely rain influence was
predominated by local factor. Fig. 6a, b and c

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 International Conference on Mathematics and Natural Sciences (ICMNS)
show convergent pattern above sea around area of
DKI-Jakarta and Indian Ocean. The Change of
pattern was started on 28 January 2002 and
became maximal above Java’s island on 29
January 2002 and finished on 30 January 2002.
As according to 7) in its the research
telling that any three aspect of see breeze
circulation over tropical site if DKI-Jakarta,
Indonesia, have been investigated. With regard to
the horizontal extent, satellite image obtained
during the dry season clearly show that see breeze
front develops well along the northern coastal
plain of west Java. A propagates inland until its
structure is modified over more complex
topography at a distance of about 60 – 80 km from
the coastline.
a. d.
b. e.
c. f.
Fig. 6 a, b, c) Wind divergence of DKI-Jakarta
Date of 28-29-30 January 2002.
d, e, f) Absolute Vorticity [ /s] of DKI-
Jakarta Date of 28-29-30 January 2002 from data
NCEP/NCAR.
Figure 5d, 5e and 5f show a negative
absolute vorticity for on 28 January 2002 between
Java’s sea and Indian Ocean, around of Jakarta
area. Then on 29 January 2002, the negative
vorticity anomaly was happened above part of
Java’s island and finished on 30 January 2002.
This thing proves that the activity of tropic
convection above ocean is more actively with
large variations 8).
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November 29-30, 2006, Bandung-Indonesia
a. d.
b. e.
c. f.
Fig. 7a, b, c) Pressure Vertical Velocity [Pa/s] of
DKI-Jakarta Date of 28-29-30 January 2002.
d, e, f) Atmos. column Precipitable water
[kg/m^2] of DKI-Jakarta Date of 28-29-30 January
2002 from NCEP/NCAR data.
Figure 7a, 7b and 7c show a speed of
vertical pressure to reach maximum on 29 January
2002 and a speed anomaly of vertical minimum
pressure on 28 January 2002, between area of Java
Sea and Indian Ocean in DKI-Jakarta. The
precipitate level in figure 7d, e, and f was started
on 28 January 2002 and finished on 30 January
2002.
The growth pattern of cloud in DKI
Jakarta was caused by circulation factor of local
atmosphere. This thing proves that change of
climate anomaly on January 2002 is affected by
the growth of convection.
III. Conclusion.
The extremely rain phenomenon in region
of DKI-Jakarta was analyzed based on change
pattern of phase and amplitude MJO and tropical
cyclone phenomenon. However, this analysis
doesn’t show extremely change of pattern. This
thing proves that synoptic scale is not predominant
of extremely rain in DKI-Jakarta.
Based on AVN data analysis, the floods
in DKI-Jakarta on 29 January 2002 are dominated
by circulation factor of local atmosphere. The
dynamics of rain cloud caused torrential rain or
extremely rain is caused by the growth of
convection cloud in DKI-Jakarta.
 International Conference on Mathematics and Natural Sciences (ICMNS)
November 29-30, 2006, Bandung-Indonesia

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