Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 12, 12 2013

International Commodities

Content
Overview Precious Metals Energy Base Metals Important Events for today

Research Team
Reena Rohit Chief Manager Non-Agri Currencies and Commodities Reena.rohit@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6134 Anish Vyas Research Analyst anish.vyas@angelbroking.com (022) 2921 2000 Extn :6104

Angel Commodities Broking Pvt. Ltd. Registered Office: G-1, Ackruti Trade Centre, Rd. No. 7, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Corporate Office: 6th Floor, Ackruti Star, MIDC, Andheri (E), Mumbai - 400 093. Tel: (022) 2921 2000 MCX Member ID: 12685 / FMC Regn No: MCX / TCM / CORP / 0037 NCDEX: Member ID 00220 / FMC Regn gn No: NCDEX / TCM / CORP / 0302

Disclaimer: The information and opinions contained in the document have been compiled from sources believed to be reliable. The company d does oes not warrant its accuracy, completeness and correctness. The document is not, and should not be construed as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any commodities. This document may not be reproduced, dist distributed or published, in whole or in part, by any recipient hereof for any purpose without prior permission from Angel Commodities Broking (P) Ltd. Your feedback is appreciated on commodities@angelbroking.com

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 12, 12 2013

International Commodities
Overview
Indian Rupee appreciated around 0.9 percent in yesterdays trade. UKs Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.7 percent in month of July. UKs Claimant Count Change declined by 32,600 in month of August. Asian markets are trading on a mixed today on the back of less than expected rise in Japans machinery orders data along with investors await the outcome of Federal Reserves meeting in next week. ntories increased by 0.1 percent in July as against a US Wholesale Inventories decline of 0.2 percent a month ago.
Dollar Index 81.52 -0.4 0.4 -0.8 -0.3 2.6

Market Highlights (% change)

Last INR/$ (Spot) 63.26 Prev day 0.9

as on September 11, 2013 w-o-w 5.7 m-o-m -3.5 y-o-y -12.4

$/Euro (Spot)

1.3309

0.3

0.8

0.1

4.3

The Dollar Index declined by 0.4 percent in yesterdays trading session on the back of rise in risk appetite in the global market sentiments which led to fall in demand and for the low yielding currency. Further, ease in Syria tensions also exerted downside pressure on the currency. However, sharp downside in the currency was cushioned on account of uncertainty over the Feds pullback in its stimulus measures during the meeting in next week. The DX touched an intra-day day low of 81.46 and closed at 81.52 on Wednesday. The Indian Rupee appreciated around 0.9 percent in yesterdays trading session. The currency appreciated on the back of easing tension in Syria along with promise mise from Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor regarding more reforms to be taken. Further, selling of dollars from exporters supported an upside in the currency. Additionally, upbeat global and domestic market sentiments and weakness in the DX in the early ly part of the trade acted as a positive factor. The currency touched an intra-day day high of 62.99 and closed at 63.35 on Wednesday. For the month of September 2013, FII inflows totaled at Rs.4866.60 th crores ($750.25 million) as on 11 September 2013. Year to date basis, net capital inflows stood at Rs.65036.40 crores ($12333.50 million) till th 11 September 2013. UKs Claimant Count Change declined by 32,600 in August as against a fall of 36,300 a month ago. Average Earnings Index was at 1.1 percent in July from 2.2 percent in earlier month. Unemployment Rate dropped to 7.7 percent in July with respect to 7.8 percent in prior month.

NIFTY

5913.2

0.3

5.4

5.4

10.7

SENSEX

19997.5

0.0

5.5

5.5

9.3

DJIA

15326.6

0.9

2.7

-0.1

15.0

S&P

1689.1

0.3

-0.1

-0.1

17.8

Source: Reuters

The Euro witnessed gains of around 0.3 percent in yesterdays trade as positive economic data supported gains in the currency. Further, upbeat global market sentiments coupled with weakness in the DX acted as a positive factor. The Euro touched an intra-day y high of 1.3324 and closed at 1.3309 on Wednesday. Farm Payrolls declined by 0.2 percent in Q2 French Final Non-Farm of 2013.

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 12, 12 2013

International Commodities
Bullion Gold
Spot gold prices increased around 0.2 percent yesterday on the back of weakness in the DX coupled with rise in risk appetite in global market sentiments. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on account of declining trend in SPDR gold holdings which stood at 917.13 tonnes. The yellow metal touched an intra-day high of $1367.9/oz /oz and closed at $1366.10/oz in yesterdays trading session. In the Indian markets, prices slipped around 0.2 percent due to Rupee appreciation and closed at Rs.30,682/10 gms after touching a low of Rs.30,442/10 gms on Wednesday. Market Highlights - Gold (% change)
Gold Gold (Spot) Unit $/oz Last 1366.1 Prev. day 0.2 as on September 11, 2013 WoW -1.8 MoM 2.3 YoY -20.8

Gold (Spot Mumbai) Gold (LBMA-PM Fix) Comex Gold (Oct13) MCX Gold (Oct13)

Rs/10 gms $/oz

30820.0

1.0

5.9

5.9

3.4

1363.8

0.4

-1.9

1.7

-21.3

$/oz

1364.1

-1.6

-1.9

2.3

-21.1

Rs /10 gms

30682.0

-0.2

-5.9

6.1

-3.8

Silver
Taking cues from rise in gold prices along with weakness in the DX, Spot silver prices gained around 1 percent yesterday yesterday. Further, upbeat global market sentiments also supported an upside in prices. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on account of downside in base metals group. The white metal touched an intra intra-day high of $23.20/oz and closed at $23.16/oz in previous trading session. On the MCX near month contract prices gained by 0.4 percent and closed at Rs.52,439/kg after touching an intra-day day high of Rs. Rs.52,896/kg on Wednesday. Market Highlights - Silver (% change)
Silver Silver (Spot) Silver (Spot Mumbai) Silver (LBMA) Comex Silver (Dec13) MCX Silver (Dec13) Unit $/oz Rs/1 kg Last 23.2 52700.0 Prev day 1.0 -1.8

Source: Reuters

as on September 11, 2013 WoW -1.2 17.3 MoM 8.5 17.3 YoY -30.4 -3.7

$/oz $/ oz

2291.0 23.1

-1.8 0.7

-3.4 -0.4

10.0 0.8

-31.8 -30.4

Rs / kg

52439.0

0.4

-1.3

14.3

-18.0

Outlook
Over todays trade, precious metals are expected to trade with a negative bias and a stronger Rupee in the Indian markets will add additional downside pressure. Technical Outlook
Unit Spot Gold MCX Gold Oct13 Spot Silver MCX Silver Dec13 $/oz Rs/10 gms $/oz Rs/kg valid for Septe September 12, 2013 Support 1352/1345 30500/30350 22.80/22.50 51900/51300 Resistance 1367/1374 30850/31000 23.20/23.45 52900/53300

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart Spot Gold

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 12, 12 2013

International Commodities
Energy Crude Oil
Nymex crude oil prices increased around 0.2 percent yesterday on the back of weakness in the DX. Further, decline in US crude oil inventories supported an upside in prices. Additionally, upbeat global market sentiments acted as a positive factor. However, sharp upside in prices was capped on account of ease in Syria tensions. Also, inventories at Cushing shing Oklahoma fell at slowest level since February 2012 along with increase in US refinery utilization. Refineries ran at a capacity of 92.5 percent which is at the highest level since 2006. Crude oil prices touched an intra-day day high of $ $108.09/bbl and closed at $107.60/bbl in yesterdays trade. On the domestic bourses, prices gained 0.4 percent and closed at Rs.6865/bbl after touching a high of Rs.6908/bbl /bbl on Wednesday. EIA Inventories Data As per the US Energy Department (EIA) report, US crude oil inventories declined by 0.2 million barrels to 360.0 million barrels for the week ending on 6th September 2013. Gasoline stocks rose by 1.7 million barrels to 217.6 million barrels and whereas distillate stillate stockpiles climbed by 2.6 million barrels to 132.20 million barrels for the last week. Outlook From the intra-day day perspective, we expect crude oil prices to trade lower on the back of ease in Syria tensions. Further, rising production in US refineries neries will exert downside pressure on prices prices. Additionally, expectations of unfavorable economic data from Euro Zone will act as a negative factor. However, sharp downside in prices will be cushioned as a result of drop in US crude oil inventories, upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the DX. In the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee will add downside pressure on prices. Technical Outlook
Unit NYMEX Crude Oil MCX Crude Sep13 $/bbl Rs/bbl valid for September 1 12, 2013 Support 106.70/105.80 6810/6750 Resistance 108.80/109.90 6940/7010
Source: Telequote

Market Highlights - Crude Oil (% change)

Crude Oil Brent (Spot) Nymex Crude (Oct 13) ICE Brent Crude (Sep13) MCX Crude (Sep 13) Unit $/bbl $/bbl Last 114.3 107.6 Prev. day 0.2 0.2

as on September 11, 2013 WoW -2.8 0.3 MoM 2.8 0.7 YoY 0.6 10.7

$/bbl

111.5

0.2

-3.0

2.3

-2.9

Rs/bbl

6865.0

0.4

-3.7

5.8

28.9

Source: Reuters

Market Highlights - Natural Gas (% change)

Natural Gas (NG) Nymex NG MCX NG (Sep 13) Unit $/mmbtu Rs/ mmbtu Last 3.562 229.7 Prev. day -0.5 0.4

as on September 11, 2013 MoM 10.72 16.19 YoY 18.50 38.54

Source: Reuters

WoW -3.05 -5.90

Technical Chart NYMEX Crude Oil

Source: Telequote

Technical Chart NYMEX Natural Gas

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 12, 12 2013

International Commodities
Base Metals
Market Highlights - Base Metals (% change) Base metals pack on the LME traded on a mixed note yesterday. The mixed LME inventories added downside pressure whereas weakness in the DX and upbeat global market sentiments prevented sharp downfall. In the Indian markets, Rupee appreciation acted as a negative factor for prices.
Unit LME Copper (3 month) MCX Copper (Nov13) LME Aluminum (3 month) MCX Aluminum (Sep13) LME Nickel (3 month) MCX Nickel Rs /kg 873.5 0.3 -4.0 -3.1 -5.8 $/tonne 13778.0 0.6 0.8 -6.5 -17.7 Rs /kg 112.7 -0.4 -3.9 -0.8 -0.5 $/tonne 1803.3 0.0 0.7 -4.5 -12.6 Rs/kg 464.9 -0.5 -3.9 3.9 2.6 $/tonne Last 7164.5 as on September 11, 2013 WoW 0.4 MoM -8.7 YoY -11.2

Prev. day -0.1

Copper
LME Copper declined by 0.13 percent in the yesterdays trade as investors await Federal Reserves meeting which is scheduled next week. However, sharp decline was prevented due to weakne weakness in the DX and upbeat global market sentiments. Additionally, decline in inventories by 0.5 percent which stood at 585,275 tonnes cushioned sharp fall in prices. The red metal touched an intraday low of $7151/tonne and closed at $7164.5/tonne on Wednesda Wednesday. The near month copper contract on the MCX declined by 0.5 percent due to appreciation in the Rupee and closed at Rs.464.9/kg in the last trading session. Outlook In todays session, we expect base metals prices to trade on a mixed note on the back of upbeat global market sentiments sentiments. Further, weakness in the DX will support an upside in prices. However, expectations of decline in industrial production from Euro Zone will act as a negative factor. Further, mixed inventories scenari scenario will add downside pressure on prices. n the Indian markets, appreciation in the Rupee will add more In downside pressure in prices on the MCX. Technical Outlook
Unit MCX Copper Nov13 MCX Zinc Sep13 MCX Lead Sep 13 MCX Aluminum Sep13 MCX Nickel Sep 13 Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg Rs /kg valid for September 1 12, 2013 Support 461/457 116.50/115.50 133.00/131.80 111.50/110.50 865/857 Resistance 468/473 118.80/120.00 136.00/137.00 113.80/114.50 880/888

(Sep13) LME Lead (3 month) MCX Lead (Sep13) LME Zinc (3 month) MCX Zinc (Sep13)
Source: Reuters

$/tonne

2126.0

-0.7

-0.5

-3.1

0.2

Rs /kg

134.4

-0.8

-5.2

0.2

14.9

$/tonne

1875.0

-0.3

0.1

-3.5

-6.7

Rs /kg

117.7

-0.6

-4.6

0.2

6.7

LME Inventories
Unit Copper Aluminum Nickel Zinc Lead tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes tonnes 11th Sept 585,275 5,359,525 216,108 985,350 180,425 10th Sept 588,475 5,364,425 215,808 985,525 181,425 Actual Change -3,200 -4,900 300 -175 -1,000 (%) Change -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.6

Source: Reuters

Technical Chart LME Copper

Source: Telequote

www.angelcommodities.com

Commodities Daily Report

Thursday| September 12, 12 2013

International Commodities
Important Events for Today
Indicator Country Time (IST) Actual Forecast Previous Impact

Core Machinery Orders m/m ECB Monthly Bulletin Industrial Production m/m Inflation Report Hearings ECB President Draghi Speaks Unemployment Claims Import Prices m/m FOMC Member Dudley Speaks Federal Budget Balance

Japan Euro Euro UK Euro US US US US

5:20am 1:30pm 2:30pm 2:30pm 5:10pm 6:00pm 6:00pm 6:30pm 11:30pm

0.0% -

2.5% -0.1% 332K 0.6% -155.3B

-2.7% 2.7% 0.7% 323K 0.2% -97.6B 97.6B

Medium Medium Medium High High High Medium Medium Medium

www.angelcommodities.com