By Dwight@RateSupermarket.ca
It comes as no surprise that the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) predicts
a continued slow-down in the real estate and building markets in Canada for the second
quarter 2009.
Remember that recession thing that’s wreaking havoc across the globe?
Well, the CMHC recently released its outlook on the second quarter of 2009 (April-June) and,
if you’re in the mood for positive thinking, things are forecasted to turn around … in 2010.
Housing starts in Q2 of 2009 are expected to be 141,500 nationwide, while they’ll see positive
growth by this time next year, to the tune of an additional 8,800 housing starts (150,300).
But, if you’re in a pessimistic mood and wonder how far Canada’s mighty real estate market
has fallen, you’ll note 2008’s second quarter housing starts were 217,600 (and 227,800 in
2007’s Q2!), which makes 2010’s forecasted rebound a little less exciting.
But remember, a ray of hope is sometimes all that’s needed in these doom-and-gloom times of
new housing starts across Canada, so try to take the positive out of this one.
The decline in housing starts in 2009 can be directly tied to the economic downturn. The fact
they’re being compared to near record numbers of 2007 and 2008 certainly doesn’t help with
appearances either. But one look at the employment rates across Canada will explain why
fewer people are putting shovels into the ground in every province in 2009. Although more
housing starts are expected in 2010, CMHC forecasts more people will be looking for work in
every province next year as well.
Unemployment rates across Canada
Province 2008 2009 (F) 2010 (F) 2011 (F) 2012 (F) 2013 (F)
Alberta 29,164 13,700 16,200 18,500 21,500 25,000
B.C. 34,321 19,725 21,700 26,300 29,000 31,700
Manitoba 5,537 3,950 4,250 4,750 4,800 4,700
New Brunswick 4,274 3,475 3,650 3,750 3,700 3,750
Newfoundland 3,261 2,675 2,975 2,900 2,850 2,900
Nova Scotia 3,982 3,100 3,425 3,600 3,550 3,600
Ontario 75,076 51,325 52,300 58,000 55,000 63,000
PEI 712 575 625 650 650 650
Quebec 47,901 40,000 41,350 40,000 38,000 37,000
Saskatchewan 6,828 3,400 3,850 4,200 4,400 4,500
Canada 211,056 141,900 150,300 162,650 163,450 176,800