Module 1

Linking Disasters, Climate Change, and Development

Learning Objectives
Understand the link among disasters, climate change and sustainable development Appreciate the importance of mainstreaming climate and disaster risk reduction in development planning processes

Outline
Impact of disasters How hazards become disasters Disaster Development Model How Disaster Risk Reduction Works Convergence of DRR and CCA Framework for Mainstreaming DRR and CCA in Development

Impacts of Disasters

Source: 2012, Thursday Insights Presentation of DG Vinod, ADB

Impacts of Disasters

Source: 2012, Thursday Insights Presentation of DG Vinod, ADB

Typhoon Sendong

Photo: Richel Umel / Reuters

Source: 2012, Punongbayan, R. Mainstreaming DRR/CCA into cLUPs

Disasters and Assistance to Affected Persons

In 2007, ADB. Philippines: Critical Constraints to Development

Large financing gap

17.67 B average annual economic losses (ADB) 3.2 B disaster financing in 2008 from calamity fund and other sources (WB)

Trends: Growing urbanization and increasing exposure to disaster events in the Philippines
35 70,000,000

30

60,000,000

25

50,000,000

20

40,000,000

15

30,000,000

10

20,000,000

10,000,000

0
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Disasters events

Urban Population

Trendline (Disaster events)

Source: CRED EM-DAT database and World Bank Open Data Initiative (In 2012, N. Britton, ADB, Briefing on the TA 7812, Developing Risk Financing Capability for the Philippines)

Rapid rate of urbanization in the Philippines 2005-2030 est. growth of 67% (+35m people) to 76%

How hazards become disasters

Progression of Vulnerability HAZARDS

Fr UNSAFE CONDITIONS Fragile physical environment Dangerous locations Unprotected buildings and infrastructure Fragile local economy Livelihoods at risk Low income levels Vulnerable society Special groups at risk Lack of local institutions Public actions Lack of disaster preparedness

DYNAMIC PRESSURES

ROOT CAUSE

Flood Landslides Tsunami Storm surge Earthquakes Volcanic eruptions

D I S A S T E R S

Lack of: Local institutions Training Appropriate skills Local investment Macroforces Rapid population growth Rapid urbanization Deforestation Decline in soil productivity

Limited access to: Power structures Resources

Ideologies Political systems Economic systems

Adapted from Wisner., et al, 2004 pressures that result in disasters

A disaster is a serious disruption of the functioning of a society, causing widespread human, material or environmental losses that exceed the ability of affected society to cope using only its own resources. Natural disaster would be a disaster caused by nature or natural causes. Vulnerability is the propensity or predisposition of an exposed population or asset to be adversely affected. Climate change adaptation: An adjustment in natural or human systems in response to actual or expected climate stimuli or their effects, which moderates harm or exploits benefit opportunities. Disaster risk reduction: The broad development and application of policies, strategies and practices to minimise vulnerabilities and disaster risks throughout society, through prevention, mitigation and preparedness

Disaster and Development Model

How climate change increases disaster risks

CC changes the magnitude and frequency of extreme events: coping and response mechanisms and economic planning for disasters based on past vulnerabilities may no longer suffice CC changes average climatic conditions and climate variability, affecting underlying risk factors, and it generates new threats: which a country may have no experience in dealing with
Source: 2008. Tearfund. Linking Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction

Paradigm Shift

Disaster management

Disaster risk management: disaster risk reduction + disaster management

Comprehensive/Integrated disaster risk management: disaster risk management + disaster risk financing+ climate change adaptation

How DRR Works

Overlap between DRR and CCA

2008. DFID. Convergence of Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation

Core Concepts: Climate, Disaster Risks and Development

Source: IPCC (2012) MANAGING THE RISKS OF EXTREME EVENTS AND DISASTERS TO ADVANCE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION

Similarities
Similar aims: both seek to build resilience to hazards in the context of sustainable development Mutual benefits: DRR supports adaptation and viceversa Non-structural measures such as policies, knowledge development and awareness raising, participatory mechanisms can both serve the DRR and CCA agenda Poverty reduction is an essential component of reducing vulnerability to hazards and climate change Mainstreaming efforts Converging political agendas

Development planning process

Planning
PPAs

Investment Programming Revenue Generation

Monitoring & evaluation

Project Evaluation & Development

PDIP/AIP

Implementation Budgeting Expenditure Management

Source: 2007. NEDA-ADB. Provincial/Local Planning and Expenditure Management

Development Planning System and Outputs in the Philippines

MAINSTREAMING FRAMEWORK
Disaster Risk Assessment Development Planning
Planning Environment Population Hazard Characterization/ Frequency Analysis Economic Activity Physical Resources/ Transport Land Use and Physical Framework Risk Estimation Development Issues, Goals, Objectives/Targets Risk Evaluation Strategies and PPAs Investment Programming Project Evaluation and Development Income and Services Vision

Consequence Analysis

Budgeting Implementation, Monitoring and Evaluation

Source: NEDA-UNDP-EU Guidelines on Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction in Subnational Development and Land Use/Physical Planning