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Master of Business Administration- MBA Semester 3 MF0010 Security Analysis and Portfolio Management- 4 Credits Assignment Set -1

Q1.Describe the investment process. It is rare to find investors investing their entire savings in a single security. Instead, they tend to invest in a group of securities. Such a group of securities is called a portfolio. Financial experts stress that in order to minimize risk an investor should hold a well-balanced investment portfolio. The investment process describes how an investor should decide the securities to invest in while constructing a portfolio, how he should spread the investments, and when he should sell them. This is a procedure involving the following five steps: 1. Setting investment policy This initial step determines the investors objectives and the investible amount. Since there is a definite relationship between risk and return, the objectives should be stated in terms of both risk and return. This step concludes with the asset allocation decision, which is identification of the potential categories of financial assets for consideration in the portfolio that the investor is going to construct. Asset allocationinvolves dividing an investment portfolio among different asset categories, such as stocks, bonds and cash. Time horizon The time horizon is the expected number of months, years, or decades for which the money will be invested. An investor with a longer time horizon may feel more comfortable with a riskier or more volatile investment because he can ride out the economic cycles and the inevitable difficulties of the markets. Risk appetite Risk appetite is an investors ability and willingness to lose some or all of his original investment in exchange for greater potential returns. An aggressive investor with greater risk tolerance is more likely to risk losing money in order to get better results. A conservative investor will favour investment that protects his original investment. Conservative investors keep a "bird in the hand, while aggressive investors seek "two in the bush." Passive management is the process of managing investment portfolios by trying to match the performance of an index (such as a stock market index) or asset class of securities as closely as possible, by holding all or a representative sample of the securities in the index or asset class. 2. Performing security analysis The second step is security selection. Security analysis involves examining a number of individual securities and identifying those securities that currently appear to be mispriced. Security analysis is done using fundamental or technical analysis or both (both have been discussed in subsequent units). Fundamental analysis is a method used to evaluate the worth of a security by studying the financial data of the issuer. It scrutinizes the issuer's income and expenses, assets and liabilities, management, and position in its industry. In other words, it focuses on the basics of the business. Technical analysis is a method used to evaluate the worth of a security by studying market statistics. Unlike

fundamental analysis, technical analysis disregards an issuer's financial statements. Instead, it relies upon market performance of the scrip to ascertain investor sentiment. 3. Portfolio construction The third step identifies the specific assets in which to invest, and determines the amounts to put into each asset. Here selectivity, timing and diversification issues are addressed. Selectivity refers to security analysis and focuses on price movements of individual securities. Timing involves forecasting of price movement of stocks relative to price movements of fixed income securities (such as bonds). Diversification aims at constructing a portfolio that minimizes the investors risk. 4. Portfolio revision This step is the periodic revision of the portfolio using the three previous steps. A portfolio might not be the optimal one forever and needs constant modifications. 5. Portfolio performance evaluation This step involves determining periodically how the portfolio has performed over the review period (returns earned compared to targeted returns).

Q2. Explain money market features and its compositions. The money market facilitates interaction between supply and demand of short-term funds, with maturity of a year or less. Most money market transactions are made in marketable securities which are short-term debt instruments such as T-bills and commercial paper.Money (currency) is not actually traded in the money markets. The securities traded in the money market are short-term with high liquidity and low-risk. They are called money equivalents. Money market provides investors a place for parking surplus funds for short periods of time. It also provides low-cost source of temporary funds to borrowers like firms, government and financial intermediaries. Money markets are associated with the issuance and trading of short-term (less than 1 year) debt obligations of large corporations, financial institutions (FIs) and governments. Every issue is huge and so only high-quality entities can borrow in the money markets. Money markets are characterized by low default risk and large value instruments. Money market transactions can be executed directly or through an intermediary. Investors in money market instruments include corporations and FIs who have idle cash but are restricted to a short-term investment horizon. Money markets essentially serve to allocate the nations supply of liquid funds among major short-term lenders and borrowers. The characteristics of money market instruments are: Short-term debt instruments (maturity of less than 1 year) Serves immediate cash needs Borrowers need short-term working capital. Lenders need an interest-earning parking space for excess funds. Instruments are traded in an active secondary market. Liquid market provides easy entry and exit for participants. Speed and efficiency of transactions allows cash to be active even for very short periods of time (overnight).

Large denominations Transactions costs are low in relative terms. Individual investors do not usually participate. Low default risk Only high quality borrowers participate. Short maturities reduce the risk of changes in borrower quality. Insensitive to interest rate changes They mature in one year or less from their issue date. Maturity of less than 1 year is too short for securities to be adversely affected, in general, by changes in rates. In theory, the banking industry should handle the needs for short-term loans and accept short-term deposits and therefore there should not be any need for money markets to exist. Banks have an information advantage on the creditworthiness of participants - they are better able to deal with the asymmetric information between savers and borrowers. However banks have certain disadvantages.

Regulation creates a distinct cost advantage for money markets over banks. Banks also have to deal with reserve requirements. These create additional expense for banks that money markets do not have. Also money markets deal with creditworthy entities - governments, large corporate and banks. Therefore the problem of asymmetric information is not severe for money markets.

Q3. Discuss the factors affect industry analysis. The factors affecting industry performance are given below. Sensitivity to the business cycle Industries are affected in a different ways to recessions and expansions. For example, heavy industries like steel manufacturers are harshly affected during recession. On the other hand, consumer goods like food and beverage firms are less affected. In an inflation spiral, regulated industries such as utilities are severely affected as they are powerless to pass price increase to customers. In a booming economy some industries show a better performance when compared to others. This is because the demand trends of different industries vary. For example, during recession people do not stop taking medicines therefore pharmaceuticals may outperform the rest of the market. Hence an investor may put their savings in industry outperformers stock. Similarly in economic upturn, investors prefer to invest in growth stocks, like technology. Investors consider specific industry cycles that could differ from the economic cycle. Most industries can either be categorized as defensive or cyclical. Defensive industries are those that sell goods that people consume irrespective of the state of the economy, such as food or pharmaceuticals. Their performance tends to be relatively steady in bad times, but earnings will not increase proportionately with an upswing in the economic cycle. In general, people do not eat more or buy more medicines when they have more disposable income they may buy more luxury items when their income improves. Cyclical industries are those whose fortunes change with the rise and fall of the economy. The profitability of cyclical industries is closely tied to a particular economic cycle, for example consumer durables. Industry life cycle Most industries go through fairly well-defined life cycle stages that affect the growth of companies in that industry, competition climate, the types of profit margins, and overall stability of the market. The

industry life cycle has a major effect on the earnings per share and rates of return offered by the industry. As a result, the ability to recognise the industry life cycle stage is a valuable asset for any investor. Generally industries evolve through three stagesthe pioneering stage, the expansion stage, and the stabilisation stage. This concept of an industry life cycle applies to industries or product lines within an industry. Pioneering stage: During this stage, there is a rapid growth in demand for the company. Many companies fail at this stage as a result of strong competitive pressures while others achieve rapid growth in sales and earnings. The investors of such companies have a good chance of earning more than the expected returns. At the same time the risk of the firm failing is also high. Expansion stage: In this stage the pioneer firms that have survived continue to grow and prosper at a moderate growth rate. In this phase,firms focus on improving their products and at times lower prices. As firms have stabilised in financial performance the companies they attract investment capital. This is because investors prefer to invest in these firms with proven track record and low risk of failure. Also the dividends pay-outs are good that make it more attractive for the investor to buy stock of these firms to investors. Stabilisation stage (maturity stage): This is a stage of moderate growth for firms. Sales increase, but at a slower rate. Products are standardised and less innovative while competition is stiff, and costs are stable. Such firms continue to operate without significant growth, and are usually headed for stagnation. The three-part classification of industry life cycle described above aids the investors in narrowing down their investment target.

Industry structure and performance You may have read Michael Porters work on competitive strategy. Here he talks about how the competitive rivalry in an industry governs its ability to sustain above-average returns. According to Porter, competition has the following five dimensions. Threat of new entrants: New entrants put pressure on price and profits. Therefore barriers to entry can be a key determinant of an industrys profitability. The most attractive segment has high entry barriers and low exit barriers. Although any firm should be able to enter and exit a market, each industry often presents varying levels of difficulty, commonly driven by economies. Manufacturing-based industries are more difficult to enter than many servicebased industries. Barriers to entry protect profitable areas for firms and inhibit additional rivals from entering the market. Bargaining power of buyers: The bargaining power of buyers describes the impact customers have on an industry. Rivalry between existing competitors: Firms make efforts to establish a competitive advantage over their rivals. The intensity of rivalry varies within each industry. Industries that are concentrated, versus fragmented, often display the highest level of rivalry. Threat of substitute products or services: Substitute products are those that are available in other industries that meet an identical or similar need for the end user. As more substitutes become available and affordable, the demand becomes more elastic since customers have

more alternatives. Substitute products may limit the ability of firms within an industry to raise prices and improve margins. Bargaining power of suppliers: An industry that produces goods requires raw materials. This leads to buyer-supplier relationships between the industry and firms that provide raw materials. Depending on where the power lies, suppliers may be able to exert an influence on the producing industry.

The strength of these five factors varies across industries and can change over time. Fundamental analysts analyse the industry structure to find the strength of the five forces, which in turn determine industry profitability.

Q4. Differences between fundamental and technical analysis. Charts vs. Financial Statements At the most basic level, a technical analyst approaches a security from the charts, while a fundamental analyst starts with the financial statements. By looking at the balance sheet, cash flow statement and income statement, a fundamental analyst tries to determine a company's value. In financial terms, an analyst attempts to measure a company's intrinsic value. In this approach, investment decisions are fairly easy to make - if the price of a stock trades below its intrinsic value, it's a good investment. Although this is an oversimplification (fundamental analysis goes beyond just the financial statements) for the purposes of this tutorial, this simple tenet holds true. Technical traders, on the other hand, believe there is no reason to analyze a company's fundamentals because these are all accounted for in the stock's price. Technicians believe that all the information they need about a stock can be found in its charts. Time Horizon Fundamental analysis takes a relatively long-term approach to analyzing the market compared to technical analysis. While technical analysis can be used on a timeframe of weeks, days or even minutes, fundamental analysis often looks at data over a number of years. The different timeframes that these two approaches use is a result of the nature of the investing style to which they each adhere. It can take a long time for a company's value to be reflected in the market, so when a fundamental analyst estimates intrinsic value, a gain is not realized until the stock's market price rises to its "correct" value. This type of investing is called value investing and assumes that the short-term market is wrong, but that the price of a particular stock will correct itself over the long run. This "long run" can represent a timeframe of as long as several years, in some cases. Furthermore, the numbers that a fundamentalist analyzes are only released over long periods of time. Financial statements are filed quarterly and changes in earnings per share don't emerge on a daily basis like price and volume information. Also remember that fundamentals are the actual characteristics of a business. New management can't implement sweeping changes overnight and it takes time to create new products, marketing campaigns, supply chains, etc. Part of the reason that fundamental analysts use a long-term timeframe, therefore, is because the data they use to analyze a stock is generated much more slowly than the price and volume data used by technical analysts.

Trading Versus Investing Not only is technical analysis more short term in nature than fundamental analysis, but the goals of a purchase (or sale) of a stock are usually different for each approach. In general, technical analysis is used for a trade, whereas fundamental analysis is used to make an investment. Investors buy assets they believe can increase in value, while traders buy assets they believe they can sell to somebody else at a greater price. The line between a trade and an investment can be blurry, but it does characterize a difference between the two schools.

Q5. Explain the implications of EMH for security analysis and portfolio management.

Implications for active and passive investment Proponents of EMH often advocate passive as opposed to active investment strategies. Active management is the art of stock-picking and market-timing. The policy of passive investors is to buy and hold a broad-based market index. Passive investors spend neither on market research, on frequent purchase nor on sale of shares. The efficient market debate plays an important role in the decision between active and passive investing. Active managers argue that less efficient markets provide the opportunity for skilful managers to outperform the market. However, it is important to realise that a majority of active managers in a given market will underperform the appropriate benchmark in the long run whether or not the markets are efficient. This is because active management is a zero-sum game in which the only way a participant can profit is for another less fortunate active participant to lose. However, when costs are added, even marginally successful active managers may underperform the market. By and large, performance record of professionally managed funds does not support the claim that active managers can consistently beat the market. The empirical evidence is that investing in passively managed funds such as index fund has outperformed actively managed funds for the last several decades. If markets are efficient, what is the role for investment professionals? Those who accept EMH generally reason that the primary role of a portfolio manager consists of analysing and investing appropriately based on an investor's tax considerations and risk profile. Optimal portfolios will vary according to factors such as age, tax bracket, risk aversion, and employment. The role of the portfolio manager in an efficient market is to tailor a portfolio to those needs, rather than to beat the market.

Implications for investors and companies EMH has a number of implications for both investors and companies. For investors: Much of the existing evidence indicates that the stock market is highly efficient, and therefore, investors have little to gain from active management strategies. Attempts to beat the market are not only useless but can reduce returns due to the costs incurred in active management (management fees, transaction costs, taxes, etc.). Investors should therefore follow a passive

investment strategy, which makes no attempt to beat the market. This does not mean that there is no role for portfolio management. Returns can be optimised through diversification and asset allocation, and by minimisation of investment costs and taxes. In addition, the portfolio should be geared to the time horizon and risk profile of the investor. Public information cannot be used to earn abnormal returns. Therefore, the implication is that fundamental analysis is a waste of time and money and as long as market efficiency is maintained, the average investor should buy and hold a suitably diversified portfolio. Investors, however, will have to make efforts to obtain timely information. Semi-strong form of market efficiency depends on the quality and quantity of publicly available information. Therefore, companies should be encouraged by investor pressure, accounting bodies, government rulings and stock market regulation to provide as much information as feasible, subject to the need for secrecy. The perception of a fair and efficient market can be improved by more constraints and deterrents placed on insider trading. For companies: EMH also has implications for companies. Companies should focus on substance, not on window-dressing accounting data: Some managers believe that they can fool shareholders through creative accounting but investors are able to see through the manipulation and interpret the real position, and consequently security prices do not rise. The timing of security issues does not have to be fine-tuned: A company need not delay a share issue thinking that its shares are currently under-priced because the market is low and hoping that the market will rise to a more normal level later. This thinking defies the logic of the EMH if the market is efficient the shares are already correctly priced and it is just as likely that the next move in prices will be down as up.

Q6. What is Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM)? Write the assumptions of CAPM. In finance, the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) is used to determine a theoretically appropriate required rate of return of an asset, if that asset is to be added to an already well-diversified portfolio, given that asset's non-diversifiable risk. The model takes into account the asset's sensitivity to nondiversifiable risk (also known as systematic risk or market risk), often represented by the quantity beta () in the financial industry, as well as the expected return of the market and the expected return of a theoretical risk-free asset. The model was introduced by Jack Treynor (1961, 1962), William Sharpe (1964), John Lintner (1965a,b) and Jan Mossin (1966) independently, building on the earlier work of Harry Markowitz on diversification and modern portfolio theory. Sharpe, Markowitz and Merton Miller jointly received the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics for this contribution to the field of financial economics. Assumptions of CAPM All investors: Aim to maximize economic utilities. Are rational and risk-averse. Are broadly diversified across a range of investments. Are price takers, i.e., they cannot influence prices.

Can lend and borrow unlimited amounts under the risk free rate of interest. Trade without transaction or taxation costs. Deal with securities that are all highly divisible into small parcels. Assume all information is available at the same time to all investors.