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TUGAS #1

ANALISIS STATISTIK

ANALISIS REGRESI KUADRATIK

PENGAJAR:
TOTO WARSA, Ir., M.S.

PENYUSUN:
Ade Setiawan
150220060003

PROGRAM PASCASARJANA
UNIVERSITAS PADJADJARAN
2006

1
Soal:
Berikut ini adalah data hasil percobaan pemupukan nitrogen pada tanaman padi:

Dosis Pupuk N Hasil Panen


(Xi) (Yi)
0 2.1
30 3.4
60 4.2
90 7.1
120 6.3

Tentukan persamaan regresi kuadratiknya!

Jawab:
a. Model Regresi Kuadratik

Y = b0 + b1 X i + b2 X i + ε
2

X0 X1 X2 Y
1 0 0 2.1
1 30 900 3.4
1 60 3600 4.2
1 90 8100 7.1
1 120 14400 6.3

b. Definisikan Matriks-matriks Berikut:


⎛1 0 0 ⎞ ⎛ 2.1 ⎞
⎜1 30 900 ⎟ ⎜ 3.4 ⎟ ⎛ b0 ⎞

X = 1 60 3600 ⎟ ⎜
Y = 4.2 ⎟ b = ⎜⎜ b1 ⎟⎟
⎜1 90 8100 ⎟ ⎜ 7.1 ⎟ ⎜b ⎟
⎜1 120 14400 ⎟ ⎜ 6.3 ⎟ ⎝ 2⎠
⎝ ⎠ ⎝ ⎠

⎛1 1 1 1 1 ⎞
X ′ = ⎜ 0 30 60 90 120 ⎟
⎜ 0 900 3600 8100 14400 ⎟
⎝ ⎠
⎛1 0 0 ⎞
⎛1 1 1 1 1 ⎞ ⎜1 30 900 ⎟
X ′X = ⎜ 0 30 60 90 120 ⎟ ⎜1 60 3600 ⎟
⎜ 0 900 3600 8100 14400 ⎟ ⎜1 90 8100 ⎟
⎝ ⎠⎜ ⎟
⎝1 120 14400 ⎠
⎛5 300 2700 ⎞
= ⎜ 300 27000 2700000 ⎟
⎜ 27000 2700000 286740000 ⎟
⎝ ⎠

2
⎛ 2.1 ⎞
⎛1 1 1 1 1 ⎞ ⎜ 3.4 ⎟
X ′Y = ⎜ 0 30 60 90 120 ⎟ ⎜ 4.2 ⎟
⎜ 0 900 3600 8100 14400 ⎟ ⎜ 7.1 ⎟
⎝ ⎠⎜ ⎟
⎝ 6.3 ⎠

⎛ 23.1 ⎞
= ⎜ 1749 ⎟
⎜166410 ⎟
⎝ ⎠

c. Persamaan Regresi dalam bentuk Matriks:


Y = Xb + ε
b = ( X ′X ) −1 X ′Y
−1
⎡5 300 2700 ⎤
( X ′X ) = ⎢300
−1
27000 2700000 ⎥
⎢⎣27000 2700000 286740000⎥⎦

d. Untuk mendapatkan nilai invers X’X , digunakan cara kofaktor dan determinan:

1. Minor:
27000 2700000 300 2700000 300 27000
M 11 = M 12 = M 13 =
2700000 286740000 27000 286740000 27000 2700000
= 451980000000 = 13122000000 = 81000000

300 27000 5 27000 5 300


M 21 = M 22 = M 23 =
2700000 286740000 27000 286740000 27000 2700000
= 13122000000 = 704700000 = 5400000

300 27000 5 27000 5 300


M 31 = M 32 = M 33 =
27000 2700000 300 2700000 300 27000
= 81000000 = 5400000 = 45000

2. Determinan:
Diambil dari baris 1:
Misalkan Matriks X’X = Matriks A, Maka nilai deteminannya:

A = a11M 11 − a12 M 12 + a13 M 13 atau

A = a11K11 + a12 K12 + a13 K13 dimana K ij = (−1)i = j M ij


= 5(451980000000) + 300(-13122000000) + 27000(81000000)
= 510300000000

3. Matriks Kofaktor:
K ij = (−1)i = j M ij

3
⎛ 451980000000 - 13122000000 81000000 ⎞
⎜ ⎟
K ij = ⎜ - 13122000000 704700000 - 5400000 ⎟
⎜ 81000000 ⎟
⎝ - 5400000 45000 ⎠

4. Adjoint A:
adj. A = K ij[ ]
'
⎛ 451980000000 - 13122000000 81000000 ⎞
= ⎜ - 13122000000 704700000 - 5400000 ⎟
⎜ 81000000 ⎟
⎝ - 5400000 45000 ⎠
⎛ 451980000000 - 13122000000 81000000 ⎞
= ⎜ - 13122000000 704700000 - 5400000 ⎟
⎜ 81000000 ⎟
⎝ - 5400000 45000 ⎠

5. Invers:
adj. A
A−1 = ; A ≠0
A
⎛ 451980000000 - 13122000000 81000000 ⎞
⎜ - 13122000000 704700000 - 5400000 ⎟
⎜ 81000000 ⎟
=⎝ ⎠
- 5400000 45000
510300000000
⎛ 0.8857142857 - 0.0257142857 0.0001587302 ⎞
= ⎜ - 0.0257142857 0.0013809524 - 0.0000105820 ⎟
⎜ 0.0001587302 - 0.0000105820 0.0000000882 ⎟
⎝ ⎠

6. Dengan demikian:
⎛ 0.8857142857 - 0.0257142857 0.0001587302 ⎞
−1
⎜ ⎟
( X ' X ) = ⎜ - 0.0257142857 0.0013809524 - 0.0000105820 ⎟
⎜ 0.0001587302 - 0.0000105820 0.0000000882 ⎟
⎝ ⎠

Sehingga, didapat nilai b:


b = ( X ′X ) −1 X ′Y
⎛ b 0 ⎞ ⎛ 0.8857142857 - 0.0257142857 0.0001587302 ⎞ ⎛ 23.1 ⎞
⎜ b ⎟ = ⎜ - 0.0257142857 0.0013809524 - 0.0000105820 ⎟ ⎜ 1749 ⎟
⎜⎜ 1 ⎟⎟ ⎜ ⎟⎜ ⎟
⎝ b 2 ⎠ ⎝ 0.0001587302 - 0.0000105820 0.0000000882 ⎠ ⎝166410 ⎠
⎛ 1.9 ⎞
= ⎜ 0.0603333 ⎟
⎜ - 0.000167 ⎟
⎝ ⎠

e. Persamaan Regresinya:

Yˆ = b0 + b1 X + b2 X 2

Yˆ = 1.9 + 0.0603333 X − 0.000167 X 2