TUGAS #1

ANALISIS STATISTIK

ANALISIS REGRESI KUADRATIK

PENGAJAR:
TOTO WARSA, Ir., M.S.

PENYUSUN:
Ade Setiawan
150220060003

PROGRAM PASCASARJANA
UNIVERSITAS PADJADJARAN
2006

1

Soal:
Berikut ini adalah data hasil percobaan pemupukan nitrogen pada tanaman padi:
Dosis Pupuk N
(Xi)
0
30
60
90
120

Hasil Panen
(Yi)
2.1
3.4
4.2
7.1
6.3

Tentukan persamaan regresi kuadratiknya!

Jawab:
a. Model Regresi Kuadratik
Y = b0 + b1 X i + b2 X i + ε
2

X0
1
1
1
1
1

X1
0
30
60
90
120

X2
0
900
3600
8100
14400

Y
2.1
3.4
4.2
7.1
6.3

b. Definisikan Matriks-matriks Berikut:
0 ⎞
⎛1 0
⎛ 2.1 ⎞
⎜1 30
⎜ 3.4 ⎟
⎛ b0 ⎞
900 ⎟




b = ⎜⎜ b1 ⎟⎟
X = 1 60 3600
Y = 4.2
⎜1 90 8100 ⎟
⎜ 7.1 ⎟
⎜b ⎟
⎝ 2⎠
⎜1 120 14400 ⎟
⎜ 6.3 ⎟


⎝ ⎠
1
1
1 ⎞
⎛1 1
X ′ = ⎜ 0 30
60
90
120 ⎟
⎜ 0 900 3600 8100 14400 ⎟

0 ⎞
⎛1 0
1
1
1 ⎞ ⎜1 30
900 ⎟
⎛1 1
X ′X = ⎜ 0 30
60
90
120 ⎟ ⎜1 60 3600 ⎟
⎜ 0 900 3600 8100 14400 ⎟ ⎜1 90 8100 ⎟

⎠⎜

⎝1 120 14400 ⎠
300
2700
⎛5

27000
2700000 ⎟
= ⎜ 300
⎜ 27000 2700000 286740000 ⎟

2

⎛ 2.1 ⎞
1
1
1
⎛1 1
⎞ ⎜ 3.4 ⎟
X ′Y = ⎜ 0 30 60
90
120 ⎟ ⎜ 4.2 ⎟
⎜ 0 900 3600 8100 14400 ⎟ ⎜ 7.1 ⎟

⎠⎜ ⎟
⎝ 6.3 ⎠
⎛ 23.1 ⎞
= ⎜ 1749 ⎟
⎜166410 ⎟

c. Persamaan Regresi dalam bentuk Matriks:
Y = Xb + ε
b = ( X ′X ) −1 X ′Y

300
2700
⎡5

( X ′X ) = ⎢300
27000
2700000 ⎥
⎢⎣27000 2700000 286740000⎥⎦

−1

−1

d. Untuk mendapatkan nilai invers X’X , digunakan cara kofaktor dan determinan:
1. Minor:

M 11 =

27000

2700000

2700000 286740000

M 12 =

= 451980000000

M 21 =

300

27000

2700000 286740000

300

27000

27000 2700000

2700000

27000 286740000

M 13 =

= 13122000000

M 22 =

= 13122000000

M 31 =

300

5

27000

27000 286740000

= 81000000

5

27000

300 2700000

27000

27000 2700000

= 81000000

M 23 =

= 704700000

M 32 =

300

5

300

27000 2700000

= 5400000

M 33 =

= 5400000

5

300

300 27000

= 45000

2. Determinan:
Diambil dari baris 1:
Misalkan Matriks X’X = Matriks A, Maka nilai deteminannya:

A = a11M 11 − a12 M 12 + a13 M 13 atau
A = a11K11 + a12 K12 + a13 K13

dimana K ij = (−1)i = j M ij

= 5(451980000000) + 300(-13122000000) + 27000(81000000)
= 510300000000
3. Matriks Kofaktor:
K ij = (−1)i = j M ij

3

⎛ 451980000000 - 13122000000 81000000 ⎞


- 5400000 ⎟
K ij = ⎜ - 13122000000 704700000
⎜ 81000000

- 5400000
45000

4. Adjoint A:

[ ]

adj. A = K ij

⎛ 451980000000 - 13122000000 81000000 ⎞
- 5400000 ⎟
= ⎜ - 13122000000 704700000
⎜ 81000000

- 5400000
45000


⎛ 451980000000 - 13122000000 81000000 ⎞
- 5400000 ⎟
= ⎜ - 13122000000 704700000
⎜ 81000000

- 5400000
45000

5. Invers:
adj. A
A−1 =
;
A

'

A ≠0

⎛ 451980000000 - 13122000000 81000000 ⎞
⎜ - 13122000000 704700000
- 5400000 ⎟

⎜ 81000000
5400000
45000

=⎝
510300000000
⎛ 0.8857142857 - 0.0257142857 0.0001587302 ⎞
= ⎜ - 0.0257142857 0.0013809524 - 0.0000105820 ⎟
⎜ 0.0001587302 - 0.0000105820 0.0000000882 ⎟


6. Dengan demikian:
⎛ 0.8857142857 - 0.0257142857 0.0001587302 ⎞


( X ' X ) = ⎜ - 0.0257142857 0.0013809524 - 0.0000105820 ⎟
⎜ 0.0001587302 - 0.0000105820 0.0000000882 ⎟


−1

Sehingga, didapat nilai b:

b = ( X ′X ) −1 X ′Y
⎛ b 0 ⎞ ⎛ 0.8857142857 - 0.0257142857 0.0001587302 ⎞ ⎛ 23.1 ⎞
⎜ b ⎟ = ⎜ - 0.0257142857 0.0013809524 - 0.0000105820 ⎟ ⎜ 1749 ⎟
⎜⎜ 1 ⎟⎟ ⎜
⎟⎜

⎝ b 2 ⎠ ⎝ 0.0001587302 - 0.0000105820 0.0000000882 ⎠ ⎝166410 ⎠
1.9


= ⎜ 0.0603333 ⎟
⎜ - 0.000167 ⎟


e. Persamaan Regresinya:

Yˆ = b0 + b1 X + b2 X 2
Yˆ = 1.9 + 0.0603333 X − 0.000167 X 2

4

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