1 of 6

POPULATION GROWTH IN THE REDLANDS

by

L. G. Hackett

Introduction

Redland City Council presently accepts uncontrolled population growth, ignoring any consideration of a
population cap for Redland City. It accepts the State Government policy that Redland City will need to
accommodate at least another 50,000 people by 2030.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics has produced 72 different series of population projections, simply
numbered 1 to 72, using different settings from 2006 to 2056. Discussion of population projections typically
use a different set of three generic series to represent high, medium and low growth scenarios; respectively,
Series A, Series B and Series C. These latter series give a broad-brush picture of the detailed 72 series.

This paper highlights selected population projections using Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and Office
of Economic and Statistical Research - Qld Treasury (OESR) data and is based on the series mentioned.

Medium Growth Scenario

The population of Queensland is growing presently at a rate reflected approximately by the ABS and OESR
Series B data. Subject to the Series B assumptions, the population of Queensland will continue to grow as
shown by the Graph 1.

Graph 1
POPULATION GROWTH 2006-2056 - SERIES B
Calculated Total Queensland Population Due to Natural Increase, Immigration and Migration; Based on OESR Data (Adjusted) (No)
SEQ Population @ 66.7% of Adjusted Qld; Based on OESR Data (No)
Redlands Population @ 3.21% of Adjusted Qld; Based on OESR Data (No)
Calculated QLD Population Based on ABS Projections for Australia
10,000,000

9,000,000

8,000,000

7,000,000

6,000,000
No.

5,000,000

4,000,000

3,000,000

2,000,000

1,000,000

0
2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

2052

2054

2056

Year

Note that this Series B projection is based on:

 2 of 6

1. Medium assumption: a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 200708, declining linearly to 1.8 within five
years, and then remaining constant.

2. Medium assumption: net interstate migration for Queensland to start at 31,500 persons in 200708
increasing to 32,750 persons in five years (by 201213) and then decreasing to 26,000 persons by 202223.
Migration rates are then applied with nets declining to 17,600 persons by 205556; constant thereafter.

3. Medium assumption: net overseas migration for Australia of 185,000 persons until 201112, then declining
linearly to 130,000 persons by 202122, then remaining constant for the remainder of the projection period.
Queenslands share to start at 18.9% and increase to 22% by 2056; constant thereafter.

4. Medium Life Expectancy: 89.3 years for males and 91.2 years for females by 2056.

The third assumption has been exceeded already because the Net Overseas Migration for Australia
during 2008 was 235,900.

Note, also, that the author has calculated the populations of South East Queensland and Redland City by
proportioning the Queensland totals.

Graph 2 is an expansion to better show the population growth for the Redlands.

Graph 2
POPULATION GROWTH 2006-2056 - SERIES B

Redlands Population @ 3.21% of Adjusted Qld; Based on OESR Data (No)

300,000

250,000

200,000
No.

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

2022

2024

2026

2028

2030

2032

2034

2036

2038

2040

2042

2044

2046

2048

2050

2052

2054

2056

Year

Do we really believe that the Redlands can accommodate this population without prejudice? To give a better
perspective, Graph 3 shows the projection out to the year 2100.
 3 of 6

Graph 3
POPULATION GROWTH 2006-2101 - SERIES B

Redlands Population @ 3.21% of Adjusted Qld; Based on OESR Data (No)

400,000

350,000

300,000

250,000
No.

200,000

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
2052
2054
2056
2058
2060
2062
2064
2066
2068
2070
2072
2074
2076
2078
2080
2082
2084
2086
2088
2090
2092
2094
2096
2098
2100
Year

Low Growth Scenario Series C

Population growth can be reduced by changing the relevant parameters. The ABS and OESR use Series C to
represent a low growth scenario. The Series C projection is based on:

1. Low assumption: a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.8 in 200708, declining linearly to 1.7 within five years,
and then remaining constant.

2. Low assumption: net interstate migration for Queensland to start at 26,000 persons in 200708 decreasing
to 23,000 persons in five years (by 201213) and then decreasing to 20,700 persons by 202223. Migration
rates are then applied with nets declining to 13,900 persons by 205556; constant thereafter.

3. Low assumption: net overseas migration for Australia of 170,000 persons until 201112, then declining
linearly to 100,000 persons by 202122, then remaining constant for the remainder of the projection period.
Queenslands share to start at 18.9% and increase to 20% by 2056; constant thereafter.

4. Low Life Expectancy: 85.0 years for males and 88.0 years for females by 2056.

Graph 4 shows this Series C projection out to the year 2100, proportioned for the Redlands.
 4 of 6

Graph 4
POPULATION GROWTH 2006-2101 - SERIES C

Redlands Population @ 3.21% of Adjusted Qld; Based on OESR Data (No)

300,000

250,000

200,000
No.

150,000

100,000

50,000

0
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
2052
2054
2056
2058
2060
2062
2064
2066
2068
2070
2072
2074
2076
2078
2080
2082
2084
2086
2088
2090
2092
2094
2096
2098
2100
Year

That is, the population of the Redlands will more than double by 2100 under a Series C, low growth scenario.
This Series does self-limit to about 283,004 people within the Redlands, in the year 2115, an increase of
115%.

An Acceptable Population Limit? Series 72

In 2009, Redland City is suffering from, or starting to experience, many of the population-induced pressures
that afflict most places, including:

a. increasing road congestion;

b. increasing atmospheric and noise pollution;
c. increasing pressure on medical and education resources;
d. continuing shortages of water;
e. reducing fish stocks;
f. increasing habitat destruction, particularly by land clearing;
g. rapid depletion of dwindling mineral and other resources;
h. detrimental visual and lifestyle impacts from continuous building works throughout the region;
i. increasing transport problems with parking and public transport availability;
j. increasing removal of green-space within the urban footprint, including the overall reduction of
vegetation throughout the region because of Greenfield development and the rezoning within the urban
footprint to allow medium density development, with the consequential impact on visual amenity and on
native animal and bird life; and
k. deteriorating social conditions, such as visual and acoustic privacy, adequacy of private open space,
solar access, garage dominance, visitor parking and, importantly, the increase in opportunities for anti-
social behaviours and crimes due to increased population density, increased anonymity, higher
concentration of different social mixes and potential frictions1.

1
http://yourdevelopment.org/factsheet/view/id/58
 5 of 6

The expected population increase over the period will exacerbate these pressures seriously. To envisage that
Redland City can increase its present population by about 40% by 2030 without serious consequences is
naive, at best.

If we believe the populations detailed in the preceding paragraphs are unsustainable, including for the reasons
argued above and in the paper entitled THE REDLANDS 2030 COMMUNITY PLAN - Important Points for
Discussion of 2 June 2009, published on this website, then other actions are needed.

The 72 series of population projections produced by the ABS are not forecasts. They are models to show the
consequences of changing the parameters that influence population growth. Series 72 is the lowest growth
projection modelled in the ABS series. However, other projections can be modelled by using different
parameter settings, as has been done by the author below.

Graph 5 shows the ABS Population Projection, Series 72, proportioned for the Redlands.

Graph 5
POPULATION GROWTH 2006-2101 - SERIES 72

Redlands Population @ 3.21% of Adjusted Qld; Based on OESR Data (No)

200,000

150,000
No.

100,000

50,000

0
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
2052
2054
2056
2058
2060
2062
2064
2066
2068
2070
2072
2074
2076
2078
2080
2082
2084
2086
2088
2090
2092
2094
2096
2098
2100

Year

This Series 72 projection shows the population growth reaching a maximum of about 173,164
in the year 2055. This is about 30% higher than now and might be the best limit for which we can hope. Note
that after the peak the population declines.

The ABS requirements for enacting this Series 72 scenario are:

1. Low assumption: a total fertility rate (TFR) declining linearly to 1.66 by 2021, then remaining constant.

2. Low assumption: net interstate migration for Queensland to be 22,500 persons in 200708, 21,000 persons
in 2009, then 18,000 from 2010 to 2056; constant thereafter.

3. ZERO Net Overseas Migration for Australia after 2007.

4. Low Life Expectancy; 85.0 years for males and 88.0 years for females by 2056.
 6 of 6

The author sees little reason to expect that life expectancy growth will decline from that at present. On that
basis, and to achieve a similar population limit as the Series 72 projection, the necessary adjustments to the
assumptions are:

1. Low assumption: a total fertility rate (TFR) declining linearly to 1.50 by 2021, then remaining constant.

2. ZERO Net Interstate Migration for Queensland after 2007.

3. ZERO Net Overseas Migration for Australia after 2007.

4. Medium Life Expectancy: 89.3 years for males and 91.2 years for females by 2056.

The author calculates that these assumptions give a maximum of 163,894 people in the year 2080.

Another option is:

1. Low assumption: a total fertility rate (TFR) declining linearly to 1.00 by 2021, then remaining constant.

2. Low assumption: net interstate migration for Queensland to be 22,500 persons in 200708, 21,000 persons
in 2009, then 18,000 from 2010 to 2056; constant thereafter.

3. ZERO Net Overseas Migration for Australia after 2007.

4. Medium Life Expectancy: 89.3 years for males and 91.2 years for females by 2056.

The author calculates that these assumptions give a maximum of 170,841 people in the year 2080.

Controlling Population Growth

ABS data shows that the population of SEQ is increasing at about 1.8 per cent per year; about 41% due to net
overseas migration, 39% due to natural increase (the excess of births over deaths), and 20% attributable to net
interstate migration2. The population of Redland City will be growing similarly. Based on ABS data, the
population of Redland City is approximately 140,000 in 2009 and is to reach about 204,000 by 2030. This
accords, generally, with the estimates contained in the Redlands 2030 briefing papers. Included in these
statistics is that the number of births per year is about double the number of deaths. This means that the
population of Redland City will increase by about 40% by the year 2030. Population growth is rampant!

The scenarios shown above are real, and striking. The examples given for limiting population are
representative and have enormous implications. The lead must come from the Federal Government with
compliance by all State Governments. Realistically, the Redlands can act alone only with Government
sanction. However, it should act decisively to do all within its power to limit the population within Redlands
City, including the lobbying of Governments and the education of the people. A population debate must be
opened and forcefully propagated.

Not to limit population growth is to accept that our lifestyles and environment will be destroyed irrevocably
and that our water, mineral and other resources will be depleted sooner rather than later. This is absurd from
any planning perspective that considers infrastructure, services, the environment, and quality of life. This
position can lead only to increasing and everlasting angst.

We can have vision and act as intelligent beings, or we can be victims of our blinkered folly.

Lindsay Hackett 21 June 2009

2
See, http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/latestProducts/3101.0Media%20Release1Sep%202008