INTERNATIONAL AND STRATEGIC STUDIES REPORT No.

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No.73

October 07, 2012

Marching Westwards: The Rebalancing of Chinas Geostrategy

By Wang Jisi, Center for International and Strategic Studies, Peking University

The Obama Administration has recently proposed a rebalancing strategy, centered around the idea of a return to Asia. Following changes in the global economic and political structure, Russia, India, the EU and other major global powers have also adjusted their geostrategies. This new round of geo-political and geo-economic competition between the great powers is becoming increasingly intense. Presently, the focus of US strategy is shifting eastwards, while the EU, India, Russia and other countries are beginning to look eastwards. Located at the center of the Asia-Pacific region, China should not limit its sights to its own coasts and borders, or to traditional competitors and partners, but should make strategic plans to look westwards and march westwards.

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The Western Development Strategy needs a new international geostrategic pillar The focus of the economy and politics in ancient China was always on inland areas. Moreover, the Chinese people have almost no history of overseas territorial expansion. The Silk Road, which ran through the western part of Eurasia, was once an important bridge for communication between eastern and western civilizations, as well as for commercial activities. However, in modern times, the western powers and Japan forced China to have contact with the outside world, both militarily and economically. As this was achieved predominately by means of sea routes, since that time, modern industry and major cities have been concentrated in Chinas coastal areas. In the early years of the reform and opening up period, the United States, Europe, Japan and East Asias Four Asian Dragons Taiwan, Hong Kong, Korea and Singapore were Chinas major foreign economic partners. The Special Economic Zones, which were set up in the southeast of China, widened the gap between coastal and inland areas even further. This meant that for a long time, Chinas western region lagged behind the rest of the country, both in terms of economic and social development, as well as in its contact with the outside world. It was not until the central government proposed the Western Development Strategy in the year 2000 that there was any great change in this situation. China does not have an international geostrategy in print, but as Chinas eastern regions have traditional development advantages, threats to Chinas sovereignty and territorial integrity have mainly come from the east. Since the founding of the PRC, foreign policy strategy and military deployments have always focused on the East Asia and the Pacific Ocean. Up to now, this has been necessary.
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However, following the introduction of the 12th Five Year Plan: Western Development Strategy and the corresponding domestic development strategies, China needs to put into practice an appropriate foreign geostrategy to support this. The construction and improvement of the geostrategic pillar in the overall Western Development Strategy will have the following implications. Firstly, China needs to make an overall plan and cooperate with many other countries, with a view to ensuring that the supply channels for oil and other bulk commodities to the west of Chinas borders remain open. These can be divided into three routes southern, central and northern and we can quickly build a new Silk Road, led by China. This new Silk Road would extend from Chinas eastern ports, through the center of Asia and Europe, to the eastern banks of the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean coastal countries in the west. A major route from Chinas western regions through the Indian Ocean should also be constructed as quickly as possible. The second implication is that we should increase economic and trade cooperation with, and economic aid to, all West Asian nations (in this article, West Asian nations refers to all countries in South Asia, Central Asia, the Middle East and the Caspian Sea region) and establish a cooperation and development fund. During the ten-year period from 2001 to 2011, the trade volume between China and South Asia, as well as with West Asia, increased roughly 30-fold (in the same period, Chinas total trade volume increased 7-fold) and its proportion of Chinas total foreign trade volume increased from 2% to 9%. Over the past seven years, the increase in the trade volume between China and Arab countries was 10 percentage points higher than Chinas average increase in foreign
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trade volume, which serves to show both the necessity and huge potential of Chinas economic march westwards. Thirdly, harmony and stability in Xinjiang, Tibet and other western provinces and regions is under threat from ethnic separatism, religious extremism, terrorism and other hostile forces from outside Chinas borders. Furthermore, cross-border crime has been even more serious and become a major national security concern. Because of this, we need to formulate and implement social policies, religious policies and educational directives, which draw together domestic and foreign policies and take into account local conditions, with supporting measures combined. This will create a strategic barrier to both strengthen national security and increase harmony among ethnic groups. Fourthly, we should increase our investment into diplomatic resources in all West Asian countries. At the same time, we should conduct extensive research into the national conditions and ethnic and religious situations of these nations, as well as strengthening social and cultural communication between our countries. Meanwhile, China should turn its economic advantage in the region into a political advantage and consequently, increase Chinas soft power. This, in turn, will widen Chinas room for strategic maneuver. Marching westwards is a strategic necessity for Chinas involvement in great power cooperation, the improvement of the international environment and the strengthening of Chinas competitive abilities The West Asian nations discussed in this article are located in the central part of the Eurasian continent. They are the birthplace of
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several of humanitys great civilizations and have an abundance of natural resources. However, due to a variety of reasons, many of these countries will find it difficult to maintain stability and prosperity over the coming few years. The political unrest and transnational ethnic and religious conflicts in several of the countries in this region will have a serious impact on future global order and great power relations. At the same time, this will have a severe impact on Chinas rapidly growing economic interests and political influence in the region. Because of this, China cannot afford to ignore these issues. China should adopt a new positive and active stance, which will allow it to make considerable differences in this vast area. This region is one in which the important interests of the EU, Russia, India, the US, Japan and China converge and compete. In contrast to Western Europe and East Asia, the countries in West Asia do not have, nor could they have, a regional military alliance (or opposing alliances) under the leadership of the US. They have also not yet shown any clear trend towards regional economic integration. At the same time, great power cooperation mechanisms and rules of cooperation and competition have yet to be established in this region. The spheres of influence of the great powers in the traditional sense overlap and are continuously being reshaped. However, the United States has already made the first move. In the fall of 2011, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton made several announcements about US plans for a new Silk Road. At the United Nations General Assembly, Clinton, together with the Afghan and German foreign ministers, co-chaired a workshop about the new Silk Road, with representatives from 30 countries. In her speech about this proposal, Hillary Clinton remarked, Turkmen gas
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fields could help meet both Pakistans and Indias growing energy needs and provide significant cross-territory revenues for both Afghanistan and Pakistan. Tajik cotton could be turned into Indian linens. Furniture and fruit from Afghanistan could find its way to the markets of Astana or Mumbai and beyond. She said that the US would support the new Silk Road and would foster private sector investment in rail lines, highways, energy infrastructure and oil pipelines. She stated that, the proposed pipeline would run from Turkmenistan, through Afghanistan and Pakistan and into India. In short, this plan aims to construct an international economic and transport network, which links Central Asia, South Asia and the Middle East, with Afghanistan at its center. Its short-term goal is the maintenance of US interests after the combat forces leave Afghanistan. The US has already constructed an oil pipeline that links Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey, and is currently implementing a proposal to link Turkmenistan and Europe through a trans-Caspian gas pipeline. The US has reduced its dependence on the Middle East for oil, but is still attempting to direct regional security affairs, intervene in domestic issues and maintain long-term influence in the region. Russia views the Caspian Sea region and the Central Asia Union states as its backyard and is determined to hold on to its traditional position in this region. In order to stabilize oil and gas prices, Russia is implementing policies of close cooperation with Middle Eastern oil-producing countries. At the same time, Russia plays an active part in Middle Eastern security affairs and resists Western meddling and intervention. In addition, the EU is heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy supplies and thus, is worried that oil prices will rise sharply. In order
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to minimise political risk, the EU is working hard to reduce the proportion of its oil imports from Russia. Consequently, the Caspian Sea region and Central Asia are becoming major areas for expansion in EU energy diplomacy. In regional security matters and on political issues, the EU and the US will continue their long-term cooperation and will make use of NATOs military forces when necessary. India is currently working hard to build an oil supply network in its periphery. It sees the Middle East and Central Asia as important directions in which it will push for the diversification of its oil imports. Furthermore, due to an increase in religious extremist forces in India, as well as the ongoing conflict between India and Pakistan, India has to pay close attention to the security affairs of this region. Japan also has increasing economic interests and security concerns in this region. In July 2012, Japan hosted the Tokyo Conference on Afghanistan, an international conference about the reconstruction of Afghanistan, at which it pledged a large sum of aid to Afghanistan, Pakistan and other countries in the region. Looking at Chinas peripheral region and beyond, we can see that there is an important strategic significance to marching westwards. Firstly, this is beneficial to establishing more balanced US-China relations, as well as strengthening US-China strategic mutual trust. In the US National Security Council, the State Council, the Defense Department and other relevant decision-making bodies, US relations with China have always been considered as part of East Asian relations. Moreover, the majority of administrative officials assigned to US-China relations are East Asian specialists. The eastward shift in the strategic focus of the Obama Administration, which has
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been interpreted as a way to defend against Chinese ambitions, is also focused on East Asia. Whether intentional or not, the US fixes China into the category of East Asian nations, which, in turn, easily makes China limit its own outlook. In addition, Sino-US competition in East Asia is already increasingly becoming a zero-sum situation. However, if China marches westwards, the potential for US-China cooperation in the fields of investment, energy, terrorism, non-proliferation and the maintenance of regional stability will increase. At the same time, there will be almost no risk of military confrontation between the two. On the issue of maintaining stability in Afghanistan, Pakistan and other countries in the region, the US also strongly hopes that China will provide support. Furthermore, Chinas economic interests in West Asian countries are increasing, which gives China a good opportunity to participate in great power multilateral cooperative efforts and improve its international standing. In contrast to the situation in East Asia, historically, there have been almost no conflicts between China and countries in West Asia (with the exception of India). There are also very few points of contention between China and these countries. Thus, in terms of geo-economic and geo-political competition and cooperation, China is in a relatively favourable position. Working with the relevant countries to shape the security environment and development of this region, as well as laying down fair rules for engagement, is in Chinas long-term interests. This will also help to foster Chinas image as a responsible great power. China can achieve this in the following ways: firstly, by expanding the scope of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization; secondly, by working together with major powers and countries in the region to plan and build the
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new Silk Road; finally, by promoting the creation of multilateral security mechanisms and the peaceful solution of regional conflicts. Marching westwards must avoid risks, balance all sides, increase efforts in research and development and be part of an overall strategic plan Marching westwards is a good opportunity for China, but it also involves many risks. Firstly, the countries in this region are far from problem-free. Many of the countries are politically unstable, comparatively poor and the conflicts between ethnic groups are not easily solved. If China were to become deeply involved, as some western countries already are, it would be very difficult for it to then get out. China must dare to get involved creatively, but also have crisis management plans and methods. Secondly, the relations between countries in West Asia are very complicated. In the Middle East, there are ongoing conflicts between Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Egypt, Israel and other regional powers. There is also no easy solution to the conflict between India and Pakistan. China needs to work to maintain the fragile peace, yet whatever diplomatic position China adopts on any of these issues, it is certain to offend some countries. The third risk is that Chinas marching westwards strategy is certain to cause concern in other countries around the world and may result in them taking measures against China. China needs to try its utmost to prevent other nations from uniting against it. China will not achieve this by fighting for supremacy, power and profit. At the same time, China cannot afford to take stances such as that of breaking through US encirclement, should not see normal
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competition as a zero-sum game or politicize economic issues. The fourth risk is that it is very easy for other countries to label China as a natural resources extraction and a neocolonialist. China must take into account environmental protection, peoples livelihoods and employment in the places it invests in. China should pay close attention to and work to improve consular rules, as well as protecting and managing the education of overseas Chinese living in these areas. When compared with the US, Europe, East Asia, Russia and other countries and regions, China has a very poor understanding of the countries in West Asia. China has very few experts in Arabic, Persian, Turkish, Kazakh, Hindi, Urdu, Bangladeshi and Singhalese. There are also very few Chinese think tanks and universities that research this region. We need to organise more bilateral or multilateral international seminars between official and semi-official think tanks and non-governmental academic organisations, to promote research of these countries, as well as training both Chinese experts on West Asia and West Asian experts on China. China also needs to formulate a long-term plan and offer substantial financial support to this region. By combining the foreign affairs, economic, cultural education and academic resources of all domestic departments, we can strengthen our coordinated efforts of marching westwards. In the rise of great powers, it is common to first establish supremacy in ones own region and then become a global power. The British Empire was an exception to this. China does not need to limit itself to first becoming an Asia-Pacific power, then becoming a global power. This article does not in any way advocate making marching westwards a clear written national foreign policy strategy. Rather, it
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uses this idea to emphasise that in the current circumstances of constant change in the geo-economic and geo-political situation, China needs to engage in new and comprehensive thinking about geostrategic rebalancing, without causing clashes between Chinas land and sea power.

Translated by Rebecca Whitmore Edited by Dr. Wu Xiangning Tel: 86-10-62756530 Email: CISS@pku.edu.cn Fax: 86-10-62759302 Web: www.ciss.pku.edu.cn Address: CISS, School of International Studies Peking University, Beijing, China, 100871
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