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The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East - A Vision to 2020

A global perspective on the industrys challenges in the region

Global Futures and Foresight


May 2007 Bahrain Egypt Iran Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Oman Qatar Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey UAE Yemen

This study is a ground breaking project for the Middle East and will provide a truly international perspective on how travel in the region could develop and what the implications might be. Being associated with this leading work is a demonstration of our commitment to contributing to the sustainable development of travel in the region.
Richard Mortimore, Chief Executive, Reed Travel Exhibitions

Platinum Sponsors

Global Futures and Foresight

The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East


Going for Growth - Across the region, countries, states and
cities are embarking on an unparalleled program of investment and development to increase capacity, improve infrastructures and grow tourist numbers and revenues. Current estimates suggest that over the next 20 years, upwards of $3 trillion is going directly into leisure and tourism and indirectly into the supporting infrastructure.i Through projects announced to date, by 2020 the region will add airport capacity for 300M extra passengers,ii build over 200 new hotels, add 100,000 additional rooms,iii grow visitor numbers to 150M, and increase the size of its aircraft fleet by over 150% by 2025.iv v The challenge is to ensure the long term viability of those strategies. Going all out to deliver 10M, 15M or 20M visitors presents one set of challenges, sustaining those numbers represents a very different issue set.

Issues - How will we find future customers to sustain our visitor targets? How will we maintain the price premium required to deliver our desired rate of return? What will it cost to update amenities and infrastructure to ensure we stay competitive with other planned and future developments in the region and further afield? How will we respond if visitor numbers dont meet our To explore the potential implications of such explosive growth and business plan targets? development, Global Futures and Foresight has launched a major Information Reliability - In our research we found huge program of study into the future of travel and tourism in the variation between the visitor forecasts coming from different Middle East to 2020. The aim of the study is to identify the drivers and barriers which could sustain, accelerate or curtail the sources such as the national tourist agencies, the WTTC and independent research houses (figure 1). In Turkey the variation forecast boom in travel and tourism in the region. The study will identify key global, regional and local security, political, economic, in expected tourist numbers by 2010 is between 22m and 30m. Investors, developers, facility operators, governments and social, technological, environmental and legislative trends, infrastructure planners need reliable and up to date forecast examine consumer behaviours and explore potential wild cards data on which to base their assumptions and plans. and discontinuous changes. It will then develop scenarios More importantly, those developing tourist and leisure facilities highlighting their possible impact on the regions plans. need to see that infrastructure planners are working to the same Uncertain Future - In studying the future one thing becomes set of growth assumptions to ensure adequate provision of water, clear, there is not one certain future that we are inexorably sanitation, power, transportation and telecommunications. moving towards but many possible futures. The future that Issue is there the potential for a central regional agency which ultimately emerges will be formed by our own plans and by changes and forces in our external environment including trends, defines standards, collects data and generates forecasts on a consistent basis so the outputs can then be used by everyone? new ideas, discontinuous change and wild card low probability, high impact events. The current plans of countries, states, cities and individual developers and operators are underpinned by a strong growth-orientated preferred future. Any analysis of history shows that the outcome at the end of any five, ten or twenty year Millions of tourists per year time period rarely resembles what was forecast at the start. 50 Hence, treating the future as a single certain outcome is a high 2020

Jordan

Bahrain

Saudi Arabia

Lebanon

Oman

Turkey

Vision and Viability - An analysis of the country strategies


on pages 11-13 highlights that the region has the ambition, resources and commitment to turn vision into reality.

Figure 1

Kuwait

Yemen

Qatar

UAE

Egypt

Syria

Iran

challenges for the region in delivering its current travel and tourism strategies. In the second section we explore some of the critical global trends and drivers of change which could have the greatest bearing on the sector. In the centre pages of the report, we present a timeline that outlines many of the most interesting landmark developments, targets and issues arising on the path to 2020 and beyond. In the final section we provide a short summary of some of the key plans and developments across the region and a table that enables us to compare the countries of the region at a glance.

2010

2010

10 5 0

2010

15

2014

This Report - In this section we explore some of the key

20

2010

Issues How broad are the scenarios you have considered? How willing is your organisation to discuss the undiscussable and think about those factors that may challenge your current growth assumptions? What if growth differs significantly from current forecasts?

30 25

2010

risk strategy. By considering a range of possible futures, the study aims to help minimise risks and surface opportunities for 45 everyone engaged in the industry. Reed Travel Exhibitions and the Arabian Travel Market are the Platinum and launch sponsors of 40 this study. We invite other parties who are interested in better understanding the future of the travel and tourism market in the Middle East region to join us in this exciting project. 35

(Dates shown are Countries tourist forecast for that year)

Tourist Number Forecasts by Country


WTTC (Adjusted) Current Government Current Figure WTTC (Adjusted) Forecast Government Forecast

2020

2010

2010

2025

2010

A key dimension to consider is the social, economic and environmental sustainability of the regions travel ambitions. Figure 2 uses WTTC figures for income per tourist, the number of visitors per citizen in 2006 and the forecasts for 2016. The diagram highlights clear positioning choices for example in 2016 Qatar is targeting tourist income of over $US11,000 per citizen, it is seeking to do this at a level of just over two tourists Issue - What aspects of your culture, heritage or tradition per citizen. In contrast, Jordan, Saudi and Oman expect visitor to will you emphasise in tourist developments and promotion in citizen ratios of between 0.75 and 1.5 - but with only $1,000 to the future? $1,700 tourist income per citizen. Given that irrespective of spend, each visitor places roughly the same demand per day on Competition and Co-operation Average length of stay in resources and on use of the infrastructure, water and other some destinations is currently as low as 1.5 days.vi To achieve services, the chart highlights clear choices in where countries the desired returns, destinations and attractions will need to position their tourist proposition. High tourist numbers, with drive up average length of stay and consider collaboration. shorter stays put undue pressure on transit facilities and airline Jordan, Turkey, Egypt and Israel are already exploring the potential capacities. This also raises the issue of how far down countries for marketing multi-center visits. The key to success will be to are willing to chase prices in order to utilise capacity once built ensure a seamless experience for the traveller and minimise the and may place an even stronger emphasis on more phased and time spent in airports and customs clearance possibly making flexible development approaches. road and rail options more attractive. Clear differentiation will also be required of the attractions on offer from one destination to the Issues Given the growing concern over the regions supply next. Simply swapping from one luxury five star hotel to the next of fresh water and the demands placed on infrastructure, may not be enough. will this inevitably force players to move upmarket and focus on attracting smaller numbers of longer staying, Issues Can the regions players get beyond competition to higher spending visitors? achieve win-win collaboration? How do we create a seamless and hassle-free experience for the multi-center visitor across Differentiation and Target Market - The region will have no the region and possibly with destinations in Asia? shortage of high end luxury developments and international standard attractions. The issue is how effectively the promoters 18 can identify and target the market segments who will be the most Tourist visitor growth plotted ready users of these facilities. Longer term, there will be a against annual Tourist revenue per 16 growing need for differentiation between facilities within a citizen $US,000 and against annual Bahrain 2016 destination and between destinations. Tourists per citizen 14

Innovation - A wave of innovation has swept the sector and is creating developments like the Palms, the Pearl, the Louvre, Hydropolis underwater hotel, and the worlds largest buildings, hotels and airports are all in the pipeline. However, many are international in nature and could equally have been located in Shanghai, Stockholm or Sharjah. The regions challenge now is to drive the next wave of innovation that emphasises, celebrates and promotes Middle Eastern cultures, heritage and tradition.

Sustainability / Protection of Culture and Heritage / Volume vs. Value

16 12 8 4

12 10 8 6 4 2

Bahrain

2006

Issues: Will you target older or younger, Americans, Europeans, locals or Asians? Will you emphasise activity, sport, cultural or health tourism and in what mix? What do you want your location to be famous for?
UAE 2006

Annual tourists/citizen

1.75 1.25 1.0 .75 .5 .25 0

Kuwait

2016

UAE 2006

Qatar

2016

Jordan

2016

Jordan

Kuwait

2016

2006

Qatar

2006

Saudi Arabia Oman


Oman

2006

2016

2016

2006

Syria

2016

Syria

Lebanon

Lebanon

2016

2016

Yemen 2006, 2016

2016

Egypt

2006

Iran

$US,000s

10

11

12

Figure 2

Service Standards - Figure 3 highlights a massive variation in the expected number of visitors per travel and tourism sector employee. To provide a consistent benchmark this model assumes an average length of stay of one night. Given the desire of many destinations to achieve premium positioning, service ratio will be a critical determinant of the visitor experience.
Issues What is the optimum service ratio for your desired market positioning? How do you currently compare with other destinations and attractions? Can you use a more favourable service ratio as part of the marketing proposition? Is the region prepared to start investing in tertiary, secondary, primary and even nursery education facilities in Asia and Africa to educate the next two generations of service staff required to meet the future staffing needs of the regions travel and tourism sector?

300 250 200 150 100 50 0

Tourists per Tourist Industry Employee


Service Ratio Current Service Ratio 2017

Saudi Arabia

Jordan

Turkey

Qatar

Iran

Syria

Egypt

Lebanon

Flexibility - The construction of a temporary facility at Doha airport to handle 30M passengers for the Asian games demonstrates that more flexible and modular approaches can be adopted to meet temporary demand spikes.vii For the region, given the uncertainties around security and climate change, flexibility may be critical to avoid over-capacity. Concepts such as flatpack temporary hotels, floating hotels, and low-environmental footprint solutions may all need to be considered to mitigate the risks of demand lagging supply.
Issue are players in the region willing to consider such flexible alternatives given the current focus on large showpiece developments?

Safety - The issues of terrorism and inter-state conflict are well rehearsed and dont need revisiting here. However, other challenges cannot be ignored for example, could the regions reclaimed islands be at major risk from rising sea levels? Other weather related events such as tsunamis and hurricanes are expected to increase in ferocity and frequency. The 1918 influenza pandemic killed over 40m people, and there have been two since then.vii The risk is rising of global pandemics through the spread of diseases such as SARS and Avian Flu.
Issue - What impact might just one climate disaster or disease outbreak have on regional tourist numbers?

Resources - Some forecasts suggest water availability could halve across the region within 50 yearsix and these may not fully account for anticipated tourism growth. At the same time the construction of hotel, airport and leisure facilities will create major demand for steel, glass, concrete and other construction materials.
Issue - The lack of water could become a major constraint on the regions ability to attract and sustain the desired levels of tourists. Rising raw material prices may affect the viability and payback period of projects.

Bahrain

Yemen

Oman

Kuwait

Figure 3

UAE

Global Drivers of Change Understanding a Changing World


The future is not a single destination. As we look ahead to 2020, there are a number of different possible outcomes and some key factors that will have the greatest influence on which path we take and where we end up in 2020. The future of travel and tourism in the Middle East will both influence and be influenced by these critical global drivers of change. These key political, economic, social, demographic, technological and environmental factors will influence everything from social attitudes and consumer demand to resource availability; they will shape confidence in the sector and drive government policy and regulation around the world. In this section we explore these global drivers, highlight potential futures they make possible and identify key questions raised for decision makers in business and government.

Wealthier - Wealth levels are rising globally and the rapid rise of Asia is generating a new class of wealthy citizens with the desire to travel. MasterCard suggest that by 2014 there will be over 650M Middle Class households in Asia earning above US$5,000 a year the threshold above which people tend to travel abroad xv. They estimate China will have 293M and India 102M earning at this level. Chinas Government estimates that by 2020 at least 100M tourists will visit foreign destinations and generate US$94Bn in tourist revenuesxvi. In developed countries, property values rose by US$30 trillion from 2001 to 2005. This new wealth is driving demand for second properties overseas and increasing travel flows xvii.
Impact Could demand for travel and for second homes ever outstrip the available supply in the region? Issue Given rising numbers at every wealth level, the regions players will need to make critical decisions on which sectors of the market they target. Are airlines, hotels and leisure services gearing up to serve the needs of the new Asian traveller?

Economic Power Shift - China is now the fourth largest global economy and India the 9th.x Rising populations, growing industrialisation, the opening up of markets and globalisation of industries are helping to accelerate economic shifts and the rise of Asia. By 2050, countries like Bangladesh, the Philippines and Vietnam could all be among the top 20. From the region, Turkey, Egypt and Iran could rank 17th, 19th and 21st xi. These shifts are creating new trading relationships, opening up new opportunities and creating whole new target markets for inbound visitors and investors.
Impact The world is discovering these new economies and the competition for their attention and markets is intensifying. Issue How can the region position itself to maximise visitor flows from these rapidly growing economies?

Growth and Ageing of the Global Population - The worlds population rose from 3bn in 1960 to 6bn in 2000, and is forecast to reach 7.6Bn by 2020 and 9Bn by 2050. While Europe is expected to shrink by over 100M by 2050, most regions will grow and Asia, the Middle East and Africa will experience the most dramatic increases xii. At the same time, many nations are experiencing rapid ageing of their populations through a combination of dramatically falling birth rates and increasing life expectancy. Globally, the proportion of those over 60 will rise from 10% today to 13.6% in 2020 and 20% by 2050. The spread will range from 50% in some European countries to 5% in Africa. Life expectancy in developed economies has risen 20 years in the last 80 In Japan, Europe and The USA, life expectancy is now around 80 and heading towards 100 within the lifetime of our children xiii. Citizens over 65 in Europe and the USA own over 70% of all the personal assets of those economies.xiv
Impact These changes will significantly impact the level of disposable income, who holds the wealth, where future customers will come from, how old they will be and from where we recruit future staff. Extended lifespans could see funds being switched from travel and leisure to cover living and health expenses. Issue Do our marketing plans reflect global population change? How can we ensure the region is an attractive destination for older visitors? How can we ensure a continuous flow of suitably educated and motivated staff?

Over the past few years, the world's population has continued on its remarkable transition path from a state of high birth and death rates to one characterized by low birth and death rates. At the heart of that transition has been the growth in the number and proportion of older persons. Such a rapid, large and ubiquitous growth has never been seen in the history of civilization.
United Nations Secretariat http://www.un.org/esa/socdev/ageing/agewpop.htm Source: Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs,

Healthier - The quest for longevity and healthier lifestyles will be major drivers of travel demand. Medical tourism in India is forecast to reach $2Bn by 2012. Thailand a popular market with Asians and Americans - earns over $850M a year from this market - forecast to reach $1Bn by 2008 xviii. Many countries in the Middle East are planning to compete in this growing market. General interest in outdoor and working holidays is rising fast. 43% of travellers are likely to go hiking, up from 24% one year ago, and 39% plan adventure activities like para-sailing and white-water rafting, up from 29% last year.xix
Impact Regular health related visits could increase the duration and frequency of visits if the quality and cost compare favourably with other heath tourism destinations. The region may be able to offer more high quality hotel facilities and better infrastructure than many other destinations. Issue Given the cost of equipping and maintaining health facilities and the competition from other forms of tourism, the regions players will need to decide where to focus their development efforts to maximise the returns.

Future Competition - Alongside existing popular destinations,


a number of new travel alternatives will emerge to compete for the attention of visitors to and from the region. The world economic map will look very different in 2020 and by 2050, nations such as Pakistan, Indonesia and Nigeria all have the potential to be amongst the 20 largest xx. Luxury travel and tourism forms a key part of each of these nations development plans. India and China have already established themselves as competitor destinations - China could receive more visitors than Spain by 2010, becoming the second most popular destination globally.xxi Impact Tourists will have increasing levels of choice. Many of the emerging destinations will place a strong emphasis on local culture to differentiate their propositions and low wages may enable them to maintain high staff to customer ratios. Issue The regions destinations will need to identify clear target market segments and have differentiated propositions.

Human Resources - Over the next 10 years, it is estimated that across the region over 1.5M new jobs will need to be created in travel and tourism possibly more if all current development plans and proposals are executed xxv. Global competition is rising both for experienced management and junior service personnel as both established and emerging economies compete for this scarce resource.i
Impact The industry will need long term thinking about how it will recruit, train, reward and train personnel. Partnerships may be required with developing nations to establish educational facilities that act as feeder programmes for future staff. Issue Guest workers may find the rewards on offer at home begin to match those available in the region.

Sustainable Tourism - The 2007 intergovernmental Panel on


Climate Change (IPCC) report confirmed a 90% likelihood that human actions are warming the planet and thereby increasing the risk of future flooding and climate related disasters.xxii At the same time, concerns are increasing over consumption levels between three and five planets worth of resources could be required if global consumption levels rose to match those in Europe and the USAxxiii. Water demand is also a growing concern The World Bank estimates that water availability per person in the Middle East and North Africa is set to drop by half by 2050. Rising tourist numbers will increase these pressures. Every US state has passed legislation to reduce the production of greenhouse gasses and to move towards more sustainable manufacturing and consumptionxxiv. Governments are beginning to impose carbon taxes on flights emanating from their countries. While emissions per passenger mile may be lower than other transport modes, a lot of air travel is considered discretionary and hence an easy way to target emission reductions. Impact The attention being paid to climate change and sustainability issues is rising fast. A tipping point could soon be hit where carbon allowances and reduction targets are imposed on firms and individuals. Future visitor forecasts and development plans may need to be scaled back and greater focus put on the environmental footprint of existing and new developments. Issue Can the region respond by establishing global best practice standards on emissions, energy efficiency and waste?

Global warming was "very likely" man-made and would bring higher temperatures and a steady rise in sea levels for centuries to come regardless of how much the world slows or reduces its greenhouse gas emissions.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. February 2007

Service Innovation and Excellence - Rising customer expectations and industry competition are driving up service benchmarks particularly in high end luxury categories. Increasingly, standards are being set by developing nations looking to differentiate themselves. For example Asiana Airlines of Korea has won Global Travellers award for Best Onboard Service and Flight Attendants for three years running and Koreas Incheon Airport has won the Airport Council Internationals Service Quality award for the last two years.
Impact Competition for the high end leisure traveller will be intense and customer expectations will be of excellent service throughout their stay. With most visits to the region lasting less than five days, the potential for recovery from service lapses will be limited and the chances of repeat visits will decline. Issue How can the Middle East define and sustain new standards of service in the face of intense global competition?

Information Communications Technology (ICT) Between 2006 and 2012, the cost of processing power is anticipated to fall sixteen-fold. Technology will increasingly be leveraged to enhance the customer experience before, during and after a trip. Integrated systems between airports, airlines and hotels will enable travellers to provide their data once only during a visit, eliminate check-in and enhance security. Multilingual digital concierges could provide a personalised single customer interface across multiple providers throughout the travel experience xiii. Virtual reality and gaming technologies will enable travellers to see and experience a travel destination prior to purchase. Wearable technologies - Chip implants and RFID will allow the tracking of people and luggage. Robotic assistants are already being used in caring for the elderly in Japan and could increasingly be used for everything from hotel butlers to service staff on low cost carriers. Additionally, 3D virtual technology has the capacity to provide a substitute for travel for meetings and leisure, particularly if sustainability concerns begin to curtail discretionary travel. The impact will be most notable in the business sector. Impact ICT will transform the travel experience and shape user expectations. Advanced technology solutions will be considered an essential component of any high end offering. Issue Is the region developing a sufficiently strong ICT education and service sector to meet future demand?

Security - On security matters, the region suffers from a collective identity in a way that others dont. For example, the tensions in Myanmar, Thailand and the Philippines have not led to discussions of security issues in Asia or resulted in visitors staying away from other countries in Asia.
Impact The region will need concerted action to address the risk of adverse travel advisories and deal with security anxieties over terrorism, inter-state conflict and personal safety. Issue Should the region shift its focus towards markets which take a more balanced view of threats in the region

Aviation Efficiency and Performance - IATA claims new aircraft are 70% more efficient than 40 years ago and 20% better than a decade ago. The industry has set a goal of increasing fuel efficiency by a further 50% by 2020.xiii Boeings Dreamliner and the Airbus A380 will make high and low volume non-stop long-haul flights feasible to any destination. Supersonic technology could reduce flight times from Dubai to London to 4 hours by 2015 and hypersonic flight could reduce it to under 2 hours by 2020. Many manufacturers are working on hypersonic propositions and Virgin Galactic believes it would take ten years and cost at least $2Bn to develop.xxvi
Impact The regions combined buying power could be leveraged to drive even higher standards of performance and efficiency from suppliers. Supersonic and hypersonic travel will create new weekend break markets. Shorter term developments with the Dreamliner and A380 may challenge the viability of hub strategies. Issue Will aviation developments enhance or challenge the regions positioning as a gateway to Asia?

Global Tourism Industry is of world GDP


1

Bahrain Egypt Iran Jordan Kuwait Lebanon Qatar

The Future of
10%
IPCC announces 90% chance humans causing global warming
Dubai tourists: 6m in 2006
4

LAUNCH OF AIR ARABIAMIDDLE EASTS FIRST LOWCOST CARRIER.

K U WA I T A I R P O RT TO H A N D L E 1 O M PA S S E N G E R S

Approximately $1 trillion of infrastructure investment in pipeline in GCC.

Completion of worlds largest building Burj Dubai

FIRST SPACE TOURISM

Bus services could link Dubai, Oman, 3 Bahrain, Saudi NUMBER OF Arabia and Jordan, A I R L I N E V I S I TO R S Qatar, Kuwait, GREW BY 7% DURING Egypt and Syria. 2 0 0 6 TO 2 6 M I L L I O N .
20M CHINESE OUTBOUND TOURISTS IN 2003, 31M IN 2005

80m Regional BAHRAIN PASSENGER Tourists TRAFFIC UP 21%


MIDDLE EAST FORECAST TO HAVE 6 OF THE 20 COUNTRIES WITH THE HIGHEST PROJECTED PASSENGER GROWTH

Syria visitors from The Gulf rise 12%

Lebanon 2006 tourist losses estimated at $1Bn

Turkey announces plans to launch tourist submarine by 2009

Qatar,The Pearl is a US $27 billion man-made island covering 985 acres of reclaimed land offshore. Open in 2007

EASYHOTEL.COM TO OPEN FIRST BUDGET HOTEL IN KUWAIT Up to 80 new hotels on Arabian peninsula by 2008

SAUDI BEGINS $5.3BN WATER BANK PROJECT

Completion of Hydropolis Undersea Hotel in Dubai 2007 D U BA I A N N O U N C E S $ 8 0 B N + A E R O S PA C E INVESTMENT PROGRAM

LAUNCH OF NAS AND SAMA BUDGET AIRLINES IN SAUDI ARABIA.

RETAJ AL RAYYAN HOTEL OPENS IN DAFNA, QATAR

2007

Opening of Jordans Amman and Aqaba Conference Centres by 2009

Oman Saudi Arabia Syria Turkey United Arab Emirates Yemen


Completion by 2009 of Gulfs biggest Dam in Oman.
10

Travel and Tourism


The Iran government Dubai OPENING OF NEW 20M Metro PASSENGER ABU DHABI AIRPORT plans to build 100 opens Completion of The World development in more hotels by 2010. Dubai 2010 2009
A BU D H A B I TO INTRODUCE GREEN DIESEL
4 0 A B U D H A B I H OT E LS A N D R E S O RT S TO B E B U I LT
14

11

Regional hotel bed nights are forecast to increase by 35% to 387 million by 2010
OPENING OF KUWAITS FAILAKA ISLAND RESORT

First phase of Bahrain International Airport expansion to complete by 2010 - raising capacity to 15M passengers
12

13

Abu Dhabis Yas island to host Formula one

$3.3Bn

COMPLETION OF FUJIARAH PARADISE AND RAS-AL-KHAIMAHS AL MARJAN ISLAND DEVELOPMENTS

UAE will add 55,000 more hotel rooms by 2012

Dubai government forecast 15 million tourists/year

RAS-AL-KHAIMAH TOURIST NUMBERS 100,000

Syria targets

COMPLETIONS OF THE THREE PALMS DEVELOPMENTS BY 2009


15

7M visitors by 2010

$27BN BAWADI HOSPITALITY AND TOURISM DEVELOPMENT TO OPEN BY 2010

Q ATA R T O C O M P L E T E $ 1 3 0 B N INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT

Qatar takes delivery of first A380 and opens 1st phase of New Doha International Airport

DUBAI TOURISM SECTOR COULD EMPLOY

16

Up to $3 Trillion GCC Infrastructure investment underway by 2010

The $350 million Grand Egyptian Museum - the worlds largest - will open in 2010 and attract up to 5M visitors annually

100,000
BY 2010

U P TO 3 2 0 M A D D I T I O N A L PA S S E N G E R S I N M E B Y 2 0 1 2 .

Turkeys 2010 Vision to increase tourists from 14 to 30 million, income from 12 to 30 billion (US$) and to double employment to 3M people

Abu Dhabis Louvre branch is expected to open in 2012.

2010

in the Middle East Completion of the US$ 3.3 billion Umm Al Quwain Marina project by 2015

World economy to grow 80% by 2020.


Abu Dhabi,The Emirates Pearl Island Project US $27Bn man made island. 29 hotels, 1 is 7*, completes 2018

Egypt plans to double number of tourists by 2014.

18

OMAN WAVE BEACHFRONT PROJECT COMPLETE

OPENING OF BAHRAIN-QATAR EXPRESS LINK.

19

Emirates Airline could own 10% of Longhaul

17

Egypts $16Bn Gamsha Bay development to complete by 2017


20

Virtual Travel

21

DOHA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT COMPLETED

200 SPA LOCATIONS IN DUBAI

A B U D H A B I TA RG E T S 3 M V I S I TO R S B Y 2 0 1 5

RAS-AL-KHAIMAH 2.7BN OPENING OF DUBAI JEBEL ALI AS WATERFRONT DEVELOPMENT WORLDS LARGEST AIRPORT 70M PASSENGERS BY 2016, EXPECTED COMPLETE TO BE OPERATIONAL 2017 AND A I R B U S P R E D I C T S M E PA S S E N G E R T R A F F I C TO ULTIMATELY CAPABLE OF HANDLING 120M PASSENGERS G R O W 7 . 1 % A N N UA L LY TO 2 0 1 5 A N D
22

THEN 5.2% UNTIL 2025.

Yemenia Airways to start taking delivery of 6 new Airbus A350s in 2012.

23

Digital concierges could manage our entire travel experience by 2015

24

Larger than Monaco, Dubailand completed in 2020. Opening in 2010 it will employ 300,000 people in the various joylands, servicing 15 million visitors.

2015

A Vision to 2020
Global POPULATION
TO REACH
NUMBER OF TOURISTS EXPECTED TO REACH

8Bn

150 MILLION BY 2020

By 2027 Middle East Airlines will buy 870 aircraft. Dubai International Airport projected to be handling up to 100M passengers per year by 2025

By 2050 humans will need at least two planets' worth of natural resources to live as they do now.

25

OMAN TARGETS OMANISATION RATE (NO. OF LOCALS EMPLOYED) OF 50% BY 2020 IN TOURISM SECTOR

AIRCRAFT MORE FUEL EFFICIENT

50%

GLOBAL TOURIST 100M CHINESE World Saudi targets ARRIVALS TO 2M non-Haj and OUTBOUND tourism Umrah visitors TOURISTS market could REACH OVER by 2020 1.56BN BY 2020. TRIPLE
ME PASSENGER FLEET COULD RISE TO 1195 AIRCRAFT BY 2025.
ROBOTIC HOTEL STAFF WILL BE COMMON
27

Hypersonic Travel by 2020


26

Dubai forecast to tourists by 2022

double number of

MUTILINGUAL, CONVERSATIONAL INTERFACES COULD REPLACE KEYBOARDS.

I R A N TA R G E T S 2 5 M V I S I TO R S
F LO O D I N G R E S U LT I N G

Omans 2M tourist capacity $15Bn Blue City development to be C H A N G E C O U L D completed by 2026.


F R O M C L I M AT E DISPLACE 200M.

WATER AVAILABILITY IN MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA TO DROP BY HALF BY 2050.

2020

Global Futures and Foresight

Travel and Tourism plans across the region to 2020


The Regions forecasts suggest annual travel and tourism
revenues could increase 89% over the next ten years. The Personal and Business Travel sectors are both set to double in size xxvii. At the same time, capital investment of over $3 Trillion will fund a massive growth in infrastructure and accommodation.i The regions airlines will buy 870 aircraft by 2027xxviii. Travel and tourism is expected to create over 1.5m new jobs, equivalent to 60% of the total United Arab Emirates population. The World Tourism & Travel Council estimate World Travel & Tourism Demand at US$6,477bn for 2006 and forecast growth to US$12,119bn by 2016. Travel & Tourism in the Middle East is estimated at US$148bn in 2006 and forecast to rise to US$279Bn by 2016. Middle East Personal Travel & Tourism is estimated to account for US$42bn or 9.4% of total personal consumption in 2006 and to rise to US$92.7Bn - 10.2% of total consumption by 2016. Business Travel is expected to rise from US$13.7bn in 2006 to US$28.4bn by 2016.i

Jordans National Tourism strategy is designed to increase tourism receipts from JD570 million in 2003 to JD 1.3bn (US$ 1.84bn) by 2010 - creating over 51,000 new jobsxlii. The government will focus on several niche markets including cultural tourism, MICE and adventure and religious travel. Key developments include the 32,000 sq. m. Amman Exhibitions Park. The US$1bn Ayla Oasis project on the Dead Sea will include 5 upmarket hotels, a marina and golf coursexliii. The airline market is being opened up to competition and Royal Jordanian Airlines aims to start taking delivery of 8 new 787-8 Dreamliners in 2010xliv. Kuwaits 20-year tourism strategy includes the aim of driving
5% growth in employment in the hotel, travel and tourism sector xlv. Part of Kuwaits 2020 tourism master plan is the creation of a major tourist resort on Failaka Island, 20 km off the coast of Kuwait City, in the Persian Gulf. Important archaeological sites have been uncovered on the island, including the Ikarus and Azuk temple sites, which will be open to visitors. The islands 24 miles of coastline will consist of US$3.3bn of hotels, shops, residences, a golf course and restaurantsxlvi.

Bahrain plans to double tourism income over the next seven years under an ambitious plan which aims to generate 10% of GDP from the sector by 2014xxix. The strategy positions Bahrain as a boutique destination in the Gulf, showcasing its unique history, culture and heritage, focusing on family and business tourism and hosting major events. Last years Formula One race alone generated almost $400 million in direct income to the kingdoms businesses and traders, almost three per cent of GDP xxx. The first phase of Bahrain International Airports planned expansion ending in 2010 will raise capacity to 15 million passengersxxxi. Key developments include a US$34m health resort for elderly people and the $1bn Amwaj Islands due for completion by the end of 2007xxxii. Egypt attracted 9.1m visitors in 2006 xxxiii and is targeting 16M by
2014xxxiv. Egypt and Turkey have developed a project to jointly host tourists from various countries and US$60 million has been allocated to promote Egypt in other countries, with US$40 million of this for advertising xxxv. Key developments include the US$350 million Grand Egyptian Museum - the worlds largest with around 150,000 artefacts and expected to attract five million visitors annually when it opens in 2010 xxxvi. The US$16.3bn Gamsha Bay project will be built over ten years to provide hotels, 15,000 residential units and villas, townhouses, an 18-hole golf course and a marina xxxvii.

Lebanon was anticipating record growth and over US$4bn in tourism revenue and investment in 2006 but now estimates losses at US$1bn xlvii. Visitor numbers in January 2007 were down 39% xlviii. Actions being considered by government include long term loans and tax relief for tourism operators and a fund to help pay workers' wagesxlix. Omans Vision 2020 includes delivering $1bn of tourism revenues by 2020 (3-5% of GDP)l, a new marketing strategy, mobilising the private and foreign sector to develop and promote sustainable tourism and an Omanisation rate of 50% within the industryli. Oman plans to grow markets such as adventure tourism. As part of regional expansion, Oman Air will add two Boeing 737-800s and start flights from Muscat to Damascus, Lucknow and Jaipur in 2007lii. Key projects include The Wave a US$1bn 6 km beachfront tourism and residential project to be completed by 2012liii and the US$15-20bn Blue City 34 sq km development at Al Sawadi that will absorb and serve up to two million tourists a year liv. In September last year, Oman made public its intention to build the Gulf's biggest damlv.

Iran had the highest regional GDP from the T&T sector in 2005
with US$ 8,380M xxxviii. It received 1.5 million visitors in 2005 and has a target of 5M by 2010 and 25M by 2025 iii. Government plans to invest 50bn Rials ($5.4M) and the private sector 250,000bn Rials in tourismxxxix covering the development of 100 hotels including 7 star offerings. Qeshm International Airport is to be extended to handle 1 million passengers by 2015xl. Iran plans to use its cost advantages to build up health tourism from other Arab statesxli.

T&T Industry
(Euromonitor) (Euromonitor)

Country
(WTTC)

Population (2007)
(m3/p/yr)
65.6 770 1031 3.06 43.66 52.08 4.18 93.5 175.2 276 18.33 10.28 6.2 4.64 20.1 7.08 170 7.4 5.39 170 193.54 14.45 5521.8 584 8900
18,878.50 32,500.00

Population (Mn) (2020 forecast)


(Tourists plus population)

GDP Current T&T US $ Industry Billion Employment Tourism Revenue 2016 US $mn Service Ratio Current
14.13 3.65 11.9 6.48 5.6 8.82 14.55 9.3 0.36 0.77 1.11 4.73 2.12 0.14 0.043 0.43 0.69 4.35 1.13 1.41 1.85 0.45 0.23 5.9 7,000 23.68 1.93 5.51 3.07
4,103.90 8,383.30 29,828.10 71,400.00 0.027

Country Visitor Employment Numbers 2017 Current


12,000 12500 3700 6000 1,292.90 26.36 10,524.60 7,153.60 4.32
4,381.70 8,727.20

Visitor Numbers Current ('000)


268.6 3500 2900 6618 2,264.20 3,061.50 618.4 988.5 0.28 1.32 1.04 0.11 4,142.20 8,252.60 10.02 7.03 1.53 6.92 3.3 2.16 4.39

Vistor Numbers 2016 ('000)

Visitor Numbers Current ('000) (est) Vistor Numbers 2016 ('000) (est) Country Visitor (target) (WTTC) CO2 Capital Emissions Tourism Capital Investment per head Revenue Investment 2017 Current US of US$mn US$mn Population $mn Tourism revenue per citizen 000's (forecast) Visitors Visitors per citizen per citizen Forecast Current (2016) Per capita water Usage
Return on Investment 2006/7 to 2016/17

Tourism revenue per citizen (000's) (current)

Return on Investment (Total) 2006/07) Service Each Dollar Ratio Invested yields $ 2017

Return on Investment (Total) to 2016/7 Each Dollar invested yields $

Bahrain
9820 1784 4900 6752.2 136.2 1589.4 1850 1100 3200 6000 6200 10000 101.5 2426.2 2000 14857.6 9000

698,585

880,000

12.12

41,000

62,000

5,000,000 3880.4

Egypt

78,887,007

89.600,000

84.51 15,05,000 1,689,000 9,082,000

Iran

68,688,433

92,000,000

194.8

653,000

885,000 1,828,050

16 million by 2014 5 million by 2010 and 25 million by 2025

Jordan

5,906,760

7,555,000

14.1

142,000

192,000 6,600,000

Kuwait

2,418,393

3,600,000

58.3

29,000

73,000

104,426

12 million by 2010 1 million by 2010

110.34 82.19

Lebanon

3,874,050

4,100,000

19.62

60,000

92,000

1,000,000 1138.6

Oman
1681.5 904.4
4,566.20 8,224.60 5,596.40 11,643.80

3,102,229 729.9 999.2 14,000 6,000


4,609 8,878.90

4,900,000

27.23 1700 1200 49.64 13.56 34,822.50 56,100.00 0.51 0.67 0.41 0.29 3.28 0.017 6.4 0.08 7.61 0.096 0.24 2.57 0.31 0.25
26,353 1,803.30 3,140.20 46,471.60

33,000

54,000

1,219,250 1138.5 2400 1.28 1.35 2.43 6.32 11.3 1.55 0.33

3000 463.6 9.97 0.54 0.69 1.47 1.67

4 million by 2010 (pre-war est) GDP from o.3 to 3 percent by 2020. 1,947,250 arrivals by 2020

321.5 181.2 470.6 910

51.51 109 61.67 12.6 28.18 306 211 200 4.33

55.55 171.42 72.34 11.96 38.02 300 4

9.84 2.08 7.91 8.56

9.09 4.33 8.5 9.98

4.04 1.3 3.22 4.8

Qatar

885,359

1,030,000

30.76

11,000

14,000

850,000

Saudi Arabia
3100 19800 8,000 390 0.85 0.018 23.86 1.94 18152 2.92 4020

27,019,731

36,100,000

286.2

227,000

311,000 8,600,000 8905.6 12993.2

Syria

18.881.361

26,200,000

24.26

476,000

836,000 4,400,000

Turkey

70,431,958

86,700,000

358.2

644,000

590,000

19,800,000

UAE
155 214.9

4,104,695

6,100,000

164

40,000

60,000

6,726,800 6853.6 11163.7

2.07 3.98

2.55 3.65

1.1 1.55

Yemen

21,456,188

32,700,000

15.16

90,000

130,000

382,332

1.4 million by 2,686.10 4,637.50 2010 45.3 million by 22,500 4400 6600 2020 7 million by 10,000 537.9 889.1 2020 30 million by 22,434 4,200.00 8,828.10 2010 (2010 est) 20.1 million by 18,000 12,708.20 18,215.00 2010 2 million in 452.4 520 859.5 2025

Syria aims to double annual visitors to 7m by 2010 and

development fund to provide loans for tourist projectslx. This will focus on opportunities for the family tourist, cultural heritage, environmental attractions, health, shopping and adventure sports. The aim is to attract up to US$50bn in investment including foreign fundslxi. Two private airlines Sama and National Air Services (NAS) are entering the low-cost domestic airline sector estimated to number at least 10 million people. Saudi Arabia is investing US$4.8bn to build more terminals at Jeddahs King Abdul Aziz Airport lxiii.

Qatar is investing US$15bn in hotels, museums and theme parks and aims to triple tourist arrivals per year to 1.4 million by 2010 and increase the average stay from 1.5 to four days. Qatars strategy is to excel in niche market tourism, so as to make the sector sustainable in Qatars overall economylvi. Hence it wants to become state-of-the-art in medical tourism and position Doha as a luxury short-stay, leisure and business travel destination. Qatar will have 40 new hotels by 2009 lvii including the Hotel Khalifa, a palatial building designed to look like a French chateau and a 360 room environmentally friendly hotel in Dafna, North of Doha.

generate an income of US$5bn. Government will open offices abroad to promote tourism and attract sector investment lxiv. Investment levels are being raised to US$1bn for 2007lxv, with multiple projects in progress including a US$200M resort and a range of service quality improvements lxvi.

Turkeys Vision 2010 aims to increase tourists from 14M

The US$2.5bn Pearl man-made 985 acre island development will include three deluxe hotelslviii. Phase 1 of the New Doha International Airport will open in 2009 with a capacity of 12M passengers at a cost of US$2.5bn. By 2015 a $5.5bn extension will increase the airports capacity to 50M passengerslix. Qatar Airways will be an A380 launch customer taking delivery of the first of its four A380s in 2009 xliv and will also buy 80 Airbus A350XWB wide bodied jets.vi

Saudi Arabias Supreme Commission for Tourism plans a tourist

in 2003 to 30M million by 2010, raise tourist income from US$11.9bn to US$30bn and double tourism employment from 1.5M to 3M lxvii. The tourist ministry's new strategy aims to attract upscale tourists who have a higher potential for spending with particular emphasis on US visitors lxviii. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism has announced 150 planned restoration and conservation-oriented projects to restore the "lifeblood" of dozens of historical sites across Turkey lxix. Plans have been announced to launch a US$1.3M tourist submarine within 2 years capable of carrying 50,000 passengers annually lxx.

United Arab Emirates


Abu Dhabis US $136bn investment in developing business and tourism assets is intended to help increase visitor numbers from 1.35M in 2006 to 3M by 2015.lxxi Tourism investment worth US$11bn is expected in the next 10 years. The total value of announced and on-going projects in Abu Dhabi is close to Dh1 trillion ($272bn)lxxii. A US$230M project to transform Abu Dhabi International Airport into a Middle Eastern hub and handle 20 million passengers a year will complete by 2010.
Etihad is positioning itself as a top end airline and won the World Travel Award for the worlds leading new airline.ii 40 private sector hotels and resorts will be built by 2010 lxxiii. Government estimates that available rooms will rise to 25,000 by 2015 from 11,500 in 2006 lxii. A focus on cultural tourism will create four museums including a Guggenheim, Art Centre and a Louvre branch due to open in 2012 lxxiv.

Fujairah is investing around Dh3bn over five years to grow


visitor numbers.lxiv Key developments include the Radisson Al Aqah Beach Resort and the Fujairah Paradise residential and tourism complex both due to open in 2009 lxxxviii.

Ras-al-Khaimah plans to attract leisure and industrial sector


investment of Dh50Bn (US$14bn) to quadruple tourists by 2010 to 100,000 lxxxix. Key developments include the Dh2.9bn Al Marjan Island - a hotel, marina and luxury villa complex due to complete by 2011xc.

Ajman has a 10 year investment program to boost the economy and tourism and build roads, transport infrastructure and a metro link to Dubai lxxv. A private sector development partner has been appointed and work has begun on new sewage infrastructurelxxvi. After initiating US$7bn of investments in 2004 and 2005, the emirate plans four major property projects including the US$2bn 'Ajman Marina'.lxvi
Dubais Strategic Plan 2015 aims to maintain double-digit GDP growth, to deliver US$108bn and per capita GDP of US$44,000 by 2015lxxvii. By 2010, the aim is for 15M business and leisure visitors to contribute 20% of GDP lxxviii. Developments in the pipeline stretch out to 2020 and should deliver 80,000 hotel rooms by 2010 with 100,000 people employed in the sector lxxix. Major developments underway include the Crescent Hydropolis Resort - the worlds first luxury underwater hotel due to open in 2007lxxx and the US$1.8bn World project a collection of 300 man-made islands modelled on the continents and due for completion in 2010 lxxxi. The Burj Dubai opens in 2008 and will be the worlds tallest building. The US$14bn Palms developments will complete in 2009 to create three man-made palm-shaped islands offering residential and tourism developments lxxxii. The Dubailand leisure park will offer entertainment and hospitality on a site bigger than Singapore lxxxiii. The US$27bn Bawadi hospitality and tourism project will create a 10Km strip running through Dubailand including construction of the world's largest hotell xxxiv. Expansion plans for Dubai International Airport could see it handle 70-100M passengers by 2025 lxxxv. The new Jebel Ali Airport is planned to handle up to 120M passengers and to become the worlds largest airport lxxxvi. Emirates plans to take delivery of up to 45 Airbus A380slxxxvii.

Sharjah has grown tourism from 400,000 to over 1M over three yearsxci and is keen to drive it higher. A major contributor is Air Arabia the regions first low cost carrier that flew 1.76M passengers in 2006 to deliver a 222% increase in net profits to US$27.5Mxcii. A US$62M expansion project is designed to increase the capacity of Sharjah airport to 8M passengers a year The US$18bn Al Nuojoom Stars Islands project will complete in five phases by 2010 to deliver hotel resorts, a golf course, shopping complexes and residential areas.xciii Umm Al Quwains development plan includes selected
tourism growth and building an airport to receive all airlines operating in the regionxciv. The Imar Spa offers Overnight Spa Escape packages aimed at Dubais female residentsxcv. The US$3.3bn Umm Al Quwain Marina project will provide over 8,000 homes, boutique hotels, retail and leisure facilities in a marina-themed environmentxcvi.

Yemen attracts 350,000 tourists annually xcvii and more than 10


world-class hotels and resorts are being built to keep pace with tourism demand xcviii. Yemenia Airways has announced plans to buy six Airbus A350s with options on four more with deliveries starting in 2012 xcix.

Document References and Sources


i

xx

Goldman Sachs analysis http:/ /www.gs.com

xxi

Beyond Oil: Reappraising the Gulf States 31st January 2007

http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=8690
ii

UNWTO: China set to surpass Spain by 2010 January 30th 2007 http:/ /www.travelwirenews.com/cgiscript/csArticles/articles/000108/010836.htm Climate Change 2007 http:/ /www.ipcc.ch/

WTM 2006 Global Trends Report http://www.wtmlondon.com/images/100487/SHOWARTICLES/WTM Reportfinal4.pdf Accor Presentation Approach to the Middle Easter Travel Market Presentation to Trends and Challenges in Middle East Travel Conference - Feb 20th-21st 2007

xxii

xxiii

iii

One Planet Living Campaign - World Wildlife Fund www.wwf.org.uk/oneplanet WorldWatch Institute www.worldwatch.org/

xxiv

Mideast air traffic to grow 7% - March 7th 2007 http://www.ameinfo.com/112907.html


v

iv

WTTC Middle East Travel and Tourism Climbing to New Heights www.wttc.org/2006TSA/pdf/World.pdf
xxvi

xxv

Global Futures and Foresight analysis of published announcements Emerging Qatar 2005 Oxford Business Group http://www.atypon-link.com/OXF/doi/abs/10.5555/erqa.2005.2. Emerging_Qatar_2005.113?journalCode=erqa

Hypersonic Rocket Would Take You from London to New York in Less Than Two Hours http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,253620,00.html WTTC Middle East Travel and Tourism Climbing to New Heights www.wttc.org/2006TSA/pdf/World.pdf

vi

xxvii

xxviii

vii

New Aviation Developments http://www.traveldailynews.com/makeof2.asp?subpage_id=1896

WHO Issues Alert Over Flu Pandemic Fears January 21st 2005 http://www.agobservatory.org/headlines.cfm?refID=44593
ix

viii

United Kingdom: Executive Report The Magazine For The Tourism, Hospitality and Leisure Industry - Part Two Deloitte January 11th 2007 http:/ /www.mondaq.com/article.asp?articleid=45510

xxix

Ambitious plan - Bahrain March 6th 2007 http:/ /www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp?StoryId=1093145 377


xxx

Factors Inside and Outside the Water Sector Drive Menas Water Outcomes World Bank http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTMENA/Resources/01Chap01-Scarcity.pdf

Bahrain seeks boutique tourism positioning November 2006 http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?IssueID=268&Sectio n=786&Article=6017

Dancing with Giants - China, India, and the Global Economy http://lysander.worldbank.catchword.org/vl=3936701/cl=14/nw=1/ rpsv/home.htm
xi

Travel and Tourism in Bahrain December 2006 http://www.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Bahrain


xxxii

xxxi

Goldman Sachs Analysis http:/ /www.gs.com

$34m health resort for elderly December 23rd 2006 http://www.ameinfo.com/106488.html

xii

World Population to 2300 UN Population Division 2004 http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange2/WorldPo p2300final.pdf

xxxiii

xiii Future Traveller Tribes 2020 Henley Centre Headlight Vision with Amadeus http://www.amadeus.com/amadeus/documents/corporate/Traveller Tribes.pdf

TOURISM: The new age of big, integrated resorts - December 11 2006 http:/ /www.ft.com/cms/s/53d905a0-839a-11db-9e950000779e2340,dwp_uuid=05212dda-8542-11db-b12c0000779e2340.html More Arabs, Americans visiting Egypt September 2006 http:/ /www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?IssueID=266&Sectio n=762&Article=5827

xxxiv

Six key states push world to 9bn people - The Guardian March 1st 2001 http://www.guardian.co.uk/population/Story/0,,444709,00.html
xv

xiv

xxxv

ANALYSIS-Asian economies feel the growing beat of tourism http://www.investsmartindia.com/IIL_NEW/Home/Reutersnewsdts. aspx?storyid=1163142795nSP135200&cat=others Growth Markets

Egypt hoping to cooperate with Turkey in tourism February 2nd 2007 http:/ /www.todayszaman.com/tzweb/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=103350 Egypt puts culture on the agenda September 2006 http:/ /www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?IssueID=266&Sectio n=762&Article=5829

xxxvi

xvi

www.corporate.visitlondon.com/ems/images/2emerging_preso.pdf
xvii

xxxvii

Economics Review South West of England Regional Development Agency - August 2005 http://download.southwestrda.org.uk/file.asp?File=/other/quarterlyeconomic-reports/economics-review-third-quarter-august-2005.pdf

Damac $16.3bn Red Sea resort December 6th 2006 http:/ /www.ameinfo.com/104441.html

Bahrain Airport Statistics - November 2006 http:/ /www.bahrainairport.com/air_stati/air_stati_2006_nov.htm World Tourism Organization Supports Iran Tourism Industry February 7th 2007 http://eng.chtn.ir/newsShow.aspx?ID=646
xl xxxix

xxxviii

Asia health tourism to reach $4bn - 1st April 2007 http://www.tradearabia.com/news/newsdetails.asp?Sn=HEAL&artid =121180
xix

xviii

Traveller Trends for 2007 TripAdvisor http://www.ntaonline.com/index.php?s=&url_channel_id=19&url_ subchannel_id=&url_article_id=3276&change_well_id=2

Airport Development News Momberger Airport Information www.airports.org/aci/aci/file/ADN%20-%20Momberger/ACIADN%20Dec%202005.pdf

xli

Health Ministry Taking Health Tourism Seriously 20th of February 2007 http://eng.chtn.ir/newsShow.aspx?ID=689

We played a crucial role October 2006 http:/ /ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=5927&Section=7 74&IssueID=267 Qatar to develop Syria tourism complex - February 19, 2007 http:/ /www.metimes.com/storyview.php?StoryID=20070219011730-7033r
lxvii lxvi

lxv

http://archive.gulfnews.com/articles/07/02/13/10103864.html, http://www.tourism.jo/inside/Strategy.asp
xliii

xlii

Jordan Ministry of Tourism http:/ /www.visitjordan.com

Jordanian close to Dreamliner deal March 1st 2007 http://www.ameinfo.com/112238.html


xlv

xliv

2010 Tourism Vision of Turkey - Ministry of Tourism and Culture http:/ /www.kulturturizm.gov.tr/genel/galeri/vizyon-eng/index.htm Turkey lassos US religious and health tourists Thursday, February 22, 2007 http:/ /www.turkishdailynews.com.tr/article.php?enewsid=66681

lxviii

Jordan Ministry of Tourism http:/ /www.visitjordan.com

xlvi

Government looks to step up sector November 9th 2006 www.unitedworld-usa.com/reports/kuwait2006/tourism.asp


xlvii

Lebanese bridge repaired March 3rd 2007 http://www.ameinfo.com/112293.html Lebanon's tourism concerns March 21st 2007 http://www.ameinfo.com/114251.html

xlviii

Culture and Tourism Ministry to pour lifeblood back into Turkeys historical February 22nd 2007 sites http://www.todayszaman.com/tzweb/detaylar.do?load=detay&link=103467&bolum=110
lxx

lxix

xlix Lebanon's tourism to get aid Mach 8th 2007 http://www.ameinfo.com/112990.html

Tourism Development Regions Ministry of Tourism and Culture http:/ /www.kultur.gov.tr/genel/text/tr/YIGM/turizmkentleri/eng/index .htm

Omans action plan May 2006 http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=5503&Sectio n=715&IssueID=262


li

Abu Dhabi Ministry of Tourism www.uae.gov.ae/Government/tourism.htm


lxxii

lxxi

Oman Opportunities Meepas http://www.meepas.com/Omanopportunities.htm


lii

Abu Dhabi projects worth close to Dh1tr February 3rd 2007 http:/ /archive.gulfnews.com/articles/07/02/13/10103864.html
lxxiii

Oman Air, three new routes in 2007 December 12 2006 http://www.ameinfo.com/105070.htm New Doha Airport focus of Key Presentation at Airport Build and Supply Exhibition & Conference in New Delhi February 14 2005 www.asiatraveltips.com/news05/142-Airport.shtml

UAE TOURISM ATTRACTS WORLD TRAVELLERS 8 March 2006 http://www.khaleejtimes.com/TravelInsideNew.asp?xfile=data/trave l/2006/March/travel_March5.xml&section=travel&col= Abu Dhabi vies for spot on tourism map - January 30, 2007 http://timesofoman.com/inner_cat.asp?cat=4&detail=2759&rand =kqfnhhZXarImP15jHCjR62dETv

liii

lxxiv

Qatar Airways to buy 80 A350s March 15 2007 http://www.ameinfo.com/113690.html


lv

liv

lxxv

Forced to Look Beyond Desalination Plants March 27th 2007 http://ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=37013

Ajman gets a further $13 billion for investment 6 February 2007 http:/ /www.mideastconstruction.com/cms/index.php?option=com_content&task =view&id=1527&Itemid=55 The Ruler Of Ajman, His Highness Sheikh Humaid Bin Rashid Al Nuaimi, Undertakes Groundbreaking To Start Work On Dhs 515 Million Ajman Sewerage Project 25 February 2003 www.zawya.com/story.cfm/sidZAWYA20030226071135 Dubai Strategic Plan - 2015 unveiled February 4th 2007 http:/ /www.menareport.com/en/business,Economy_and_Trade/20 9211 Doing Business in the DIFC http:/ /www.difc.ae/operating/index.html

lvi

Tourism sector set to generate $148bn in Middle East this year - 10/30/2006 http://www.ifpqatar.com/News_show_news.asp?id=2691

lxxvi

lvii Is Qatar the Next Dubai? June 4th 2006 http://www.nytimes.com/2006/06/04/travel/04qatar.html?ex=115 6996800&en=f1fef39c4eb9dd3d&ei=5070 lviii

lxxvii

QATAR: Major Developments http://www.traveldailynews.com/makeof2.asp?subpage_id=1897 Premium terminal leads Dohas new services February 2007 http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=6230&Sectio n=820&IssueID=271

lxxviii

lix

lxxix

Consumer Lifestyles Saudi Arabia. The Economist Intelligence Unit, 22.1, Para 1 www.eiu.com Consumer Lifestyles Saudi Arabia. The Economist Intelligence Unit, 22.1, Para 1 www.eiu.com
lxii lxi

lx

Dubai Hotel Workforce to Triple by 2010 http:/ /business.maktoob.com/news_briefs_inside.asp?id=200609 07134116&h=1

lxxx

Hydropolis Underwater Hotel, Dubai, United Arab Emirates September 2005 http://www.designbuild-network.com/projects/Hydropolis/
lxxxi

Saudia Propels a New Era in Civil Aviation December 2006 http://www.arabnews.com/?page=15&section=0&article=89622& d=17&m=2&y=2007

Property Developments: Dubai: The World Islands http:/ /realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com/developments/dubai/wor ld_islands.php Property Developments: Dubai: Burj Dubai (Downtown Dubai) http:/ /realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com/developments/dubai/bur j_dubai.php

lxxxii

$4.8bn investment for Jeddah airport February 2007 http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?IssueID=271&Sectio n=820&Article=6235


lxiv

lxiii

Syria spends up on tourism October 5th 2006 http://www.ameinfo.com/98190.html

Transcity: Dubai's Urbanism by numbers http:/ /transcity.eu/main/article/5/dubais-urbanism-by-numbers

lxxxiii

Property Developments: Dubai: Dubailand http://realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com/developments/dubai/du bailand.php Dubai investing $81bn in aviation projects October 2006 http://ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=5922&Section=7 73&IssueID=267 Dubai - Overview: http://www.usatoday.com/marketplace/ibi/dubai.htm Airbus customers could find A380 delays costly July 2006 www.iht.com/articles/2006/06/16/business/order.php
lxxxviii lxxxvii lxxxvi lxxxv

lxxxiv

Chart and Timeline References and Sources


Charts
Figure 1 WTTC Tourism Satellite Accounting Regional Reports http:/ /www.wttc.travel/eng/WTTC_Research/Tourism_Satellite_Acc ounting/TSA_Regional_Reports/index.php Government Figures - Sourced from Tourist Ministry Goals and press releases Figure 2 GFF derived figures WTTC Tourism Satellite Accounting Regional Reports http:/ /www.wttc.travel/eng/WTTC_Research/Tourism_Satellite_Acc ounting/TSA_Regional_Reports/index.php Figure 3 WTTC Tourism Satellite Accounting Regional Reports http:/ /www.wttc.travel/eng/WTTC_Research/Tourism_Satellite_Acc ounting/TSA_Regional_Reports/index.php

Dh2b Fujairah resort lures tourists 5th March 2006 http://archive.gulfnews.com/indepth/atm/more_stories/10037279. html

lxxxix Ras Al Khaimah seeks $13bn investment 16 February 2007 http://www.arabianbusiness.com/index.php?option=com_content &view=article&id=8102:ras-al-khaimah-seeks-13bninvestment&Itemid=78 xc

Project watch February 2007 http://ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=6246&Section=8 22&IssueID=271 www.sharjah-welcome.com/html/more_news.php?id=2891

xci

Timeline
1) Launch of Air-Arabia Middle Easts first low-cost carrier WTM 2006 Global Trends Report http://www.wtmlondon.com/images/100487/SHOWARTICLES/WTM Reportfinal4.pdf 2) Approximately $1 trillion of infrastructure in pipeline in GCC Beyond Oil: Reappraising the Gulf States 31st January 2007 http:/ /yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=8690 3) Bahrain passenger traffic up 21% Bahrain Airport Statistics - November 2006 http:/ /www.bahrainairport.com/air_stati/air_stati_2006_nov.htm 4) Middle East forecast to have 6 of the 20 countries with the highest projected passenger growth Budget carriers set for growth March 13th 2007 http:/ /www.tradearabia.com/news/newsdetails.asp?Sn=TTN&artid =120367 5) Lebanon 2006 tourist losses estimated at $1bn Lebanese bridge repaired March 3rd 2007 http:/ /www.ameinfo.com/112293.htm 6) Global tourism industry is 10% of world GDP Global Travel and Tourism Exceeded $6 trillion in 2005 March 6th 2007 http:/ /www.wttc.org/eng/News_and_Events/Press/Press_Releases _2006/Global_travel_exceeded_USD_6_trillion_in_2005/ index.php 7) Kuwait airport to handle 10m passengers Travel and Tourism in Kuwait December 2006 http:/ /www.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Kuwait 8) Bus services could link Dubai, Oman, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Jordan, Qatar, Kuwait, Egypt and Syria Tourism earns Dh97b revenue March 8 2007 http:/ /www.gulfnews.com/business/Tourism_and_Travel/1010954 1.html 9) Launch of NAS and SAMA budget airlines in Saudi Arabia New Routes To Profit?- Dec 10 2006 http:/ /www.time.com/time/insidebiz/article/0,9171,1568461, 00.html

The Emirate of Sharjah moves towards the 5th GCC Road Show May 14th 2006 http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA20070214102502/Sec Countries/pagUAE/chnUAE%20Analysis/obj13F83D09-8988-11D5867E00D0B74A0D7C/
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Sharjahs got more than you know- October 2006 http://www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=5921&Sectio n=773&IssueID=267
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Development Plan for UAQ Approved February 12 2007 http://www.zawya.com/Story.cfm/sidZAWYA20070212044309

Ladies-only spa at Umm Al Quwain - 5 March 2007 http://www.arabianbusiness.com/index.php?option=com_content &view=article&id=8896


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PROJECT-Umm Al Quwain: UMM AL QUWAIN MARINA December 2006 http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?p=11705960 Yemeni government criticized for not promoting tourism 31st January 2007 http://yementimes.com/article.shtml?i=1020&p=local&a=3 Business in brief March 1st 2007 http://yementimes.com/article.shtml?i=1029&p=business&a=2

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Yemenia buys six A350s March 13 2006 http://www.ameinfo.com/80185.html

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10) Dubai tourists 6m in 2006 WTTC Middle East Travel and Tourism Climbing to New Heights www.wttc.org/2006TSA/pdf/World.pdf 11) Number of airline visitors grew by 7% during 2006 to 26 million WTM 2006 Global Trends Report http://www.wtmlondon.com/images/100487/SHOWARTICLES/WTM Reportfinal4.pdf 12) 20 million Chinese outbound tourists in 2003, 31 million in 2005 The prospects for China as a source market November 07, 2006 http://www.traveldailynews.com/new.asp?newid=33550&subcateg ory_id=95 13) Turkey announces plans to launch tourist submarine by 2009 Tourism Development Regions - Ministry of Culture and Tourism http://www.kultur.gov.tr/genel/text/tr/YIGM/turizmkentleri/eng/ index.htm 14) Completion of Hydropolis underwater hotel in Dubai in 2007 Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing http://www.dubaitourism.ae/ 15) Dubai announces $80 billion+ aerospace investment program Dubai to invest over $80 billion in airport infrastructure October 2006 http://www.sbac.co.uk/community/cms/content/preview/nl.asp?p= 2481&pp=37&txtSearchPhrase 16) Syria visitors from the gulf rise 12% More GCC tourists to Syria April 29 2006 http://www.ameinfo.com/84353.html 17) Qatar, The Pearl is a US $27 billion man-made island covering 985 acres of reclaimed land offshore. Open in 2007. Major Developments QATAR http://www.traveldailynews.com/makeof2.asp?subpage_id=1897 18) Retaj Al Rayyan Hotel opens in Dafna, Qatar Eco-friendly hotel to open in Qatar November 17 2006 http://www.dubaiinside.com/detailnews.asp?refno=1031 19) IPCC announces 90% chance humans causing global warming Climate Change 2007 http://www.ipcc.ch/ 20) First space tourism Hypersonic Rocket Would Take You From London to New York in Less Than Two Hours - February 21, 2007 http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,253620,00.html 21) Completion of worlds largest building Burj Dubai Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing http://www.dubaitourism.ae/ 22) Saudi begins $ 3.5bn water bank project Market of the Month: Saudi Arabia March 2007 http://www.export.gov/articles/Saudi_MoM.asp 23) Easyhotel.com to open to open first budget hotel in Kuwait Travel And Tourism in Kuwait December 2006 http://www.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Kuwait 24) Up to 80 new hotels on Arabian peninsula by 2008 Red Hot Middle East! http://www.hospitalitynet.org/indepth/154000357/112000417.se arch?query=what+percentage+of+middle+east+tourism+is+busin ess+related%3f

25) Opening of Jordans Amman and Aqaba Conference Centres by 2009 Reaching east, reaching west May 2006 http:/ /www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=5499&Sectio n=714&IssueID=262 26) Completion by 2009 of Gulfs biggest dam in Oman Construction of Gulfs biggest dam 30 September 2006 http:/ /www.omanaccess.com/greatdeals/admin_great_deals.asp? category=General 27) Dubai metro opens in 2009 Two more bridges by 2009 to ease Dubai traffic June 6th 2006 http:/ /archive.gulfnews.com/indepth/trafficwatch/New_roads/1004 5293.html 28) Abu Dhabi to introduce green diesel Abu Dhabi progresses toward introduction of green diesel as fuel 24th January 2007 http://www.ameinfo.com/108612.html 29) First phase of Bahrain International Airport expansion complete by 2010 raising capacity to 15m passengers Travel and Tourism in Bahrain December 2006 http://www.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Bahrain 30) Regional hotel bed nights are forecast to increase by 35% to 387 million by 2010 WTM 2006 Global Trends Report http:/ /www.wtmlondon.com/images/100487/SHOWARTICLES/WTM Reportfinal4.pdf 31) Opening of Kuwaits $3.3bn Failaka island resort Travel and Tourism in Kuwait - December 2006 http:/ /www.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Kuwait 32) Dubai government forecast 15 million tourists/year Dubai WTM 2006 November 2006 www.antor.com/Dubai/Dubai_November_2006.pdf 33) Completion of the three Palms developments by 2009 Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing http://www.dubaitourism.ae/ 34) Qatar takes delivery of first A380 and opens 1st phase of New Doha International Airport New Aviation Developments http:/ /www.traveldailynews.com/makeof2.asp?subpage_id=1896 35) The $350 million Grand Egyptian Museum the worlds largest will open in 2010 and attract up to 5m visitors annually Egypt puts culture on the agenda September 2006 http:/ /www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?IssueID=266&Sectio n=762&Article=5829 36) Dubai tourism sector could employ 100,000 by 2010 Dubai Hotel Workforce to Triple by 2010 http:/ /business.maktoob.com/news_briefs_inside.asp?id=200609 07134116&h=1 37) Turkeys 2010 vision to increase tourists from 14 to 30 million, income from 2 to 30 billion (US$) and to double employment to 3m people. 2010 Tourism Vision of Turkey - Ministry of Tourism and Culture http:/ /www.kulturturizm.gov.tr/genel/galeri/vizyon-eng/index.htm 38) Opening of new 20m passenger Abu Dhabi airport Expansion plans of Abu Dhabi Airport to be revealed in Mid East event - March 15, 2007 http:/ /www.traveldailynews.com/new.asp?newid=36080&subcateg ory_id=53

39) Completion of The World development in Dubai 2010 Dubai Department of Tourism and Commerce Marketing http://www.dubaitourism.ae/ 40) 40 Abu Dhabi hotels and resorts to be built UAE TOURISM ATTRACTS WORLD TRAVELLERS - 8 March 2006 http://www.khaleejtimes.com/TravelInsideNew.asp?xfile=data/trave l/2006/March/travel_March5.xml&section=travel&col= 41) Completion of Fujairah Paradise and Ras-al-Khaimahs al Marjan island developments Realty is Red Hot June 2006 http://www.zawya.com/marketing.cfm?zp&p=/story.cfm/sidZAWYA2 0060608062129 42) Ras-al-Khaimah tourist numbers 100,000 RAK to attract 100,000 tourists by 2010- 15th February 2007 http://uaeinteract.com/news/default.asp?cntDisplay=10&ID=20 43) Syria targets 7m visitors by 2010 Syria spends up on tourism October 5th 2006 http://www.ameinfo.com/98190.html 44) Qatar to complete $130 billion infrastructure investment Minister highlights $130 billion Qatar projects at MEED conference in Doha - March 2nd 2006 45) $27bn Bawadi Hospitality and Tourism development to open by 2010 His Highness Sheikh Mohammed launches leading hospitality investment project May 1st 2006 http://www.ameinfo.com/84671.html 46) Up to $3 trillion GCC infrastructure investment underway by 2010 Beyond Oil: Reappraising the Gulf States http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/display.article?id=8690 47) Up to 320 million additional passengers in ME by 2010 WTM 2006 Global Trends Report http://www.wtmlondon.com/images/100487/SHOWARTICLES/WTM Reportfinal4.pdf 48) Abu Dhabis Louvre branch is expected to be opening 2012 Abu Dhabi's Louvre finally approved, ready by 2012 http://www.demaniore.it/opencms/opencms/eng_demanioRe/hom ePageSezione/attualita/in-evidenza/home/DM081173090785085.html?breadCrumb=Detail 49) The Iran government plans to build 100 more hotels by 2010 Iran aims for more tourists February 4th 2007 http://www.ameinfo.com/109612.html 50) Abu Dhabis Yas Island to host Formula One Abu Dhabi to host Formula One Grand Prix in 2009 March 2nd 2007 http://www.inforally.sibiul.ro/formula1_news_58.html 51) UAE will add 55,000 more hotel rooms by 2012 Accor Presentation Approach to the Middle Easter Travel Market 52) Completion of the US$ 3.3 billion Umm Al Quwain Marina project by 2015 Developments: Umm Al Quwain: Umm Al Quwain Marina http://realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com/developments/umm_al_ quwain/umm_al_quwain_marina.php 53) Egypt plans to double number of tourists by 2014 Egyptian Tourist Authority launches new website March 29, 2006 http://www.hotelmarketing.com/index.php/content/article/060329 _egyptian_tourist_authority_launches_new_website/

54) Emirates Airline could own 10% of long haul The Chinese are coming... November 7 2006 http:/ /travel.iafrica.com/bulletinboard/389306.htm 55) Yemenia Airways to start taking delivery of 6 new Airbus A350s in 2012 Yemenia buys six A350s March 13 2006 http:/ /www.ameinfo.com/80185.html 56) Oman Wave beachfront project complete Fairmont Hotels to set up $2b project in Oman 14th March 2007 http:/ /www.menafn.com/qn_news_story_s.asp? StoryId=1093146273 57) Doha International Airport completed Premium terminal leads Dohas new services February 2007 http:/ /www.ttnworldwide.com/bkArticlesF.asp?Article=6230&Sectio n=820&IssueID=271 58) Opening of Dubai Jebel Ali as worlds largest airport 70 m passengers by 2016 expected to be operational 2017 and ultimately capable of handling 120m passengers Dubai - Overview http://www.usatoday.com/marketplace/ibi/dubai.htm 59) Digital concierges could manage our entire travel experience by 2015 Future Traveler Tribes 2020 Henley Centre Headlight Vision with Amadeus http://www.amadeus.com/amadeus/documents/corporate/Traveller Tribes.pdf 60) World economy to grow 80% by 2020 Foresight 2020 - Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) www.eiu.com/site_info.asp?info_name=eiu_Cisco_ Foresight_2020 61) Abu Dhabi, The Emirate Pearl Island Project US $ 27bn man-made island. 29 hotels, 1 is 7*, completes 2018 United Kingdom: "Foresight 2020" Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU)Executive Report The Magazine For The Tourism, Hospitality and Leisure Industry - Part Two Deloitte 11th January 2007 http:/ /www.mondaq.com/article.asp?articleid=45510 62) Opening of Bahrain-Qatar express link Bahrain/Qatar: Gulf express train on track - 04 November 2006 www.traintraveling.com/africa_meast/africa_meast_intercity.shtml 63) Egypts $16 billion Gamsha Bay development to complete by 2017 Gamsha Bay - Egypt property investment December 5th 2006 http://www.gamshabay.info/ 64) 200 Spa locations in Dubai Wellness & Spas Trade Fair to promote slimming & health http://www.ameinfo.com/113828.html 65) Virtual travel GFF Forecast 66) Abu Dhabi targets 3m visitors by 2015 DIMARCO TO DEFEND ABU DHABI GOLF CHAMPIONSHIP TITLE 13th September 2006 http:/ /www.imgworld.com/press_room/fullstory.sps?iType=13708& iNewsid=374570&iCategoryID=12543 67) Ras-al-Khaimah $2.7bn waterfront development complete Property Developments: Ras Al Khaimah: Mina Al Arab http:/ /realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com/developments/ras_al_k haimah/mina_al_arab.php

68) Airbus predicts ME passenger traffic to grow 7.1% annually to 2015 and then 5.2% until 2025 Mideast air traffic to grow 7% 69) March 7th 2007 http:/ /www.ameinfo.com/112907.html 70) Larger than Monaco, Dubailand completed in 2020. Opening in 2010 it will employ 300,000 people in the various joylands servicing 15 million visitors Middle Easts answer to Disneyland http://www.42international.com/dubai.htm 71) Global population to reach 8bn Six key states push world to 9bn people - The Guardian March 1st 2001 http://www.guardian.co.uk/population/Story/0,,444709,00.html 72) Number of tourists expected to reach 150 million by 2020 WTOs Tourism 2020 www.world-tourism.org/market_research/facts/market_trends.htm 73) By 2020 Middle East airlines will buy 870 aircraft United Kingdom: Executive Report The Magazine For The Tourism, Hospitality and Leisure Industry - Part Two Deloitte January 11th 2007 http://www.mondaq.com/article.asp?articleid=45510 74) Dubai International Airport projected to be handling up to 100m passengers per year by 2025 New Aviation Developments http://www.traveldailynews.com/makeof2.asp?subpage_id=1896 75) Oman targets Omanisation rate (no. of locals employed) of 50% by 2020 in tourism sector Oman Opportunities - Meepas http://www.meepas.com/Omanopportunities.htm 76) Aircraft 50% more fuel efficient Fuel Efficiency http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/environment/fuel_efficiency.htm 77) Global tourist arrivals to reach over 1.56 bn by 2020 WTO Background Paper on climate Change and Tourism www.world-tourism.org/sustainable/climate/pres/graham-todd.pdf 78) Robotic hotel staff will be common GFF Forecast 79) By 2050 humans will need at least two planets worth of natural resources to live as they do now. One Planet Living Campaign - World Wildlife Fund www.wwf.org.uk/oneplanet 80) Dubai forecast to double number of tourists by 2022 GFF estimate based on published announcements 81) Hypersonic travel by 2020 Tourism Futures Looking Out to 2020 Travel Industry Association of America www.latour.lsu.edu/presentations/Dr.Cook.pdf 82) Saudi targets 2m non-Haj and Umrah visitors by 2020 Travel and Tourism - Saudi Arabia, December 2006, Euromonitor www.euromonitor.com/Travel_And_Tourism_in_Saudi_Arabia 83) 100m outbound Chinese tourists Growth Markets www.corporate.visitlondon.com/ems/images/2emerging_preso.pdf 84) ME passenger fleet could rise to 1195 aircraft by 2025 Budget blitz http://www.trendsmagazine.net/business.php 85) Iran targets 25m visitors Accor Presentation Approach to the Middle Easter Travel Market Presentation to Trends and Challenges in Middle East Travel Conference - Feb 20th-21st 2007

86) Flooding resulting from climate change could displace 200m Climate change fight 'can't wait' 31st October 2006 http:/ /news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/6096084.stm 87) World tourism market could triple www.tourism.jo/inside/Strategy.asp 88) Multilingual, conversational interfaces could replace keyboards Future Traveler Tribes 2020 Henley Centre Headlight Vision with Amadeus http://www.amadeus.com/amadeus/documents/corporate/Traveller Tribes.pdf 89) Water availability in Middle East and North Africa to drop by half by 2050 Factors Inside and Outside the Water Sector Drive Menas Water Outcomes World Bank http:/ /siteresources.worldbank.org/INTMENA/Resources/01Chap01-Scarcity.pdf 90) Omans 2m tourist capacity $15bn Blue City development to be complete by 2026. Diversification Drive The Blue City http://www.apexstuff.com/bt/200512/cs.asp

Timeline Image References


http:/ /www.airarabia.com/ http:/ /www.photos.com http:/ /www.photos.com www.ksbitv.com/ hotlinks/3318381.html www.skyscrapercity.com/ showthread.php?t=111551 http://www.flynas.com/eng/ourplanes.html http:/ /www.flysama.com/Sama/English/Top/AboutUs/ MediaGallery/Photos/ 8. http:/ /www.realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com 9. http:/ /www.ameinfo.com/news/Event_News/Cityscape/more 7.html 10. http:/ /archive.gulfnews.com/images/05/12/28/01_jan_dubai_ metro_4.jpg 11. http:/ /www.bahrainairport.com/bia/news_2005.htm 12. http:/ /www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?referrerid=391 59&t=342293 13. http:/ /spaceports.blogspot.com/2006_10_01_archive.html /www.realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com/developments/ 14. http:/ abu_dhabi/al_reem_island.php 15. http://www.airport-technology.com/projects/doha/doha2.html 16. http:/ /www.tijanre.ae/the_palm_deira.html 17. http:/ /www.drnicolemunk.de/we_demo_2/news/AirbusSanierung-Herrscherfamilie-Dubai-Scheich-Mohammed-binRashid-Al-Maktoum-Emir-Pilot-Vice-President-UAE-Munk.php 18. http:/ /www.ameinfo.com/35763.html 19. http:/ /www.uni-kassel.de/internat/uni/kassel.ghk?style=plain 20. http:/ /www.bizbuzzmedia.com/blogs/airline/archive /2006/2/3.aspx 21. http://www.mondolithic.com 22. http:/ /www.timetableimages.com/ttimages/dy.htm 23. http:/ /www.dubaitourism.ae/newsletter/arrow/ar_ArchivesWeb. asp?uID=3&nID=16 24. http:/ /realestate.theemiratesnetwork.com/developments /dubai/dubailand.php 25. http:/ /www.photos.com 26. http:/ /www.mondolithic.com 27.http:/ /www.enterprise-ireland.com 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7.

The future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East - A vision to 2020
An Arabian Travel Market and Global Futures and Foresight study
This ground breaking project for the Middle East will provide a truly international perspective on how travel and tourism in the region could develop and what the implications might be. The study is using a combination of a global survey of industry professionals and travellers, in-depth desk research and expert interviews to provide critical insights on the future of travel in the Middle East. The study is designed to help the region take a consolidated view on the development of travel and tourism in the region and the implications and challenges for building and sustaining the industry. The study will explore what the drivers of change are, identify potential wild card events that could blow growth off-course or accelerate it and examine the overall outlook in five, ten and twenty years time. The study will factor in the forecasts, perspectives and opinions of key industry bodies and commentators. It will examine potential discontinuous drivers such as political, economic, social, demographic, environmental, technological, legislative and consumer behavioural changes which could influence the plans of this key sector for the Middle East. There will be three reports produced through this study. This short Pathfinder report, a full report later in 2007 and a Response from the Region which will be launched at ATM 2008.

About Global Futures and Foresight


The aim of Global Futures and Foresight (GFF) is to harness the views of global experts to provide foresight to organizations so that they can be more successful and less exposed to risk by better understanding the opportunities and threats the future may bring. GFF is a strategic futures think tank that draws on a global network of business, academic and future thinkers from across the world committed to helping business and government better prepare for the future. It does this through collaborative projects and through undertaking its own research, gathering thought leaders views of the future and forming composite ideas of what our future could look like. It helps business and government factor these views into their strategic thinking and by so doing become better prepared for the future.

About the Authors


David Smith is joint head of GFF and an experienced businessman, authority on futures issues and international speaker. In his 30 year business career he has held senior management positions in a number of global organizations and has been involved in public sector, commercial and financial markets. He has advised the UK, Australian, South African and European Union governments on strategic research investment decisions. Since founding GFF five years ago he has worked with many government, commercial and academic organisations including the Association of Event Organisers, where he gave the keynote address at their 2006 conference. He leads the GFF Pulse annual research project which highlights issues likely to impact business in the next five years. Rohit Talwar is joint head of GFF and an internationally renowned futures researcher and award winning speaker. He has conducted major futures studies, developed research methodologies and undertaken consulting assignments for clients in the private sector and government and worked with global clients in over 25 countries. Rohit is a specialist on the future of travel and tourism and the long term development of Asia and the Middle East. . He has just completed a major study on the Future of China the Path to 2020. Rohit is a regular speaker in Dubai on global trends. He chaired and delivered a keynote speech at both the recent Dubai Middle East Travel Trends conference and the World CEO Forum in February 2006. He has delivered keynote presentations on Vision 2020 for Dubai Chamber of Commerce and Investment and the Dubai Human Resources Forum.

How to be involved
The full report will be distributed to all 20,000+ attendees at the World Travel Market in London in November 2007 and distributed electronically to over 150,000 travel industry professionals worldwide providing an excellent opportunity for brand exposure to any potential sponsors. Being associated with this leading work will help reinforce any participants position as a leading, insightful and strategic player in the Travel and Tourism Industry in the Middle East. Please contact the authors to discuss the opportunities to become involved in this ground breaking series of reports and to understand the benefits to you.

About Arabian Travel Market


Arabian Travel Market (ATM) has become the first Platinum Sponsor of this study series on behalf of Reed Travel Exhibitions and welcomes other leading organisations to join them in this venture. ATM is the industry's leading travel and tourism exhibition dedicated to unlocking the business potential within the Middle East and Pan Arab region. Uniting key market players from six continents, Arabian Travel Market is four days of intensive meetings, seminars, press conferences and social networking opportunities.

Presentation The Future of Travel and Tourism in the Middle East - A Vision to 2020
GFF will be sharing the findings of this report in a 40 minute presentation at their conference room located in the Al Wasl lobby at the times below. Everyone is welcome to attend, space is available on a first come first served basis.

Tuesday 1st May at 3pm Wednesday 2nd May at 11am and 3pm Thursday 3rd May at 11am and 3pm To contact Global Futures and Foresight Tel: +44 1372 210941
rohit.talwar@thegff.com david.smith@thegff.com www.thegff.com www.arabiantravelmarket.com/thegff
All data sources and photographs and artwork images used are acknowledged in a fully referenced extended version of this document which is available online at www.thegff.com

Global Futures and Foresight