Seismic Risk Assessment of Wind Turbine Towers in Zafarana Wind Farm Egypt

By Dr. Heba Kamal Dr. Ghada Saudi Dr. Abdel Aziz khairy

April 2013

Partners
1- Egyptian Partners Housing & Building National Research Centre (HBRC) Structures & Metallic Constructions Research Institute Soil Mechanics& Geotechnical Engineering Institute National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics (NRIAG) Seismological Department New and Renewable Energy Authority (NREA)

2- American Partner
University of California, Irvine (UCI) Civil & Environmental Engineering Department

Introduction
Wind energy is one of the most important source of renewable energy in Egypt. Wind turbine technology has developed over the past years. In considering structural loads on a wind turbine, even in seismically active regions such as Gulf of Suez , seismic loads are regarded as less important compared to wind-induced aerodynamic loads. Seismic loads, however, should assume greater importance for wind turbines installed in regions where earthquakes occur. A systematic loads analysis of turbines based on seismic hazard deaggregation or specific turbine sites should be an integral part of the site assessment and structural integrity analysis of a turbine.

Zafarana Wind Farm Egypt

Zafarana Wind Project consists of 8 projects and will have a generating capacity of 545MW making it one of the largest onshore wind farms in the world.

Existing wind farm at Zafarana site

Loads acting on wind turbine

Research Objective
The overall objective of the proposed research is the reduction in seismic risk by applying seismological, geotechnical and structural studies to identify the expected seismic loads and predict future seismic hazards that may affect the integrity of the wind towers at Zafarana site.
The current design of wind turbine towers and foundation systems will be assessed for the future seismic risk at the Gulf of Suez zone. The current trends in wind tower industry are expansion to greater heights and larger turbine capacity than ever before.

The new expected farm south of Zafarana farm and El-Zayt Gulf will consist of a matrix of taller towers reaching from 80 m to 100m.

Research Tasks
1. Gathering data and documents about the turbine towers at Zafarana wind farm 2. Perform seismological studies of Zafarana and El Zayt Gulf sites 3. Study the local site effects 4. Perform dynamic soil structure interaction of the foundation of wind turbine towers numerically by OpenSees, FAST, and FLAC 5.0. 5. Conduct In- Situ dynamic measurements for different types of wind turbine towers in Zafarana farm 6. Numerical modeling of wind turbine towers 7. Model Comparison of Numerical and Measured Modes

Project Schedules

SEISMICITY AND SEISMIC HAZARD ASSESSEMENT OF WIND TURBINE TOWERS IN ZAFARANA FARM, GULF OF SUEZ, EGYPT

By
Seismic hazard team
Dr. Abd El-Aziz Khairy Abd El-Aal Mr. Mohamed abdelhay Mr. Ashraf Adely

National Research Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics

Seismic risk versus seismic hazard

risk hazard vulnerability cost

Seismic Hazard is the probability of occurrence of a specified level of
ground shaking in a specified period of time. But a more general definition includes anything associated with an earthquake that may affect the normal activities of people, i.e. surface faulting, ground shaking, landslides, liquefaction, tectonic deformation, and tsunamis.

Vulnerability is the degree of damage caused by various levels of

loading. The vulnerability may be calculated in a probabilistic or deterministic way for a single structure or groups of structures.

Seismic Risk is expressed in terms of economic costs, loss of lives or

environmental damage per unit of time.

It is the job of the geophysicists to provide hazard assessments (but not risk assessments.)

Approaches to Seismic Hazard Analysis

Deterministic The earthquake hazard for the site is a peak ground acceleration of 0.35g resulting from an earthquake of magnitude 6.0 on the Balcones Fault at a distance of 12 miles from the site. Probabilistic The earthquake hazard for the site is a peak ground acceleration of 0.28g with a 2 percent probability of being exceeded in a 50-year period.

Deterministic vs Probabilistic
Deterministic - Consider of small number of scenarios (Mag, dist, number of standard deviation of ground motion) - Choose the largest ground motion from cases considered
Probabilistic - Consider all possible scenarios (all mag, dist, and number of std dev) - Compute the rate of each scenario - Combine the rates of scenarios with ground motion above a threshold to determine probability of exceedance

Steps of

probabilistic seismic hazard analysis for a given site:

(1) definition of earthquake sources, (2) earthquake recurrence characteristics for each source, (3) attenuation of ground motions with magnitude and distance, and (4) ground motions for specified probability of exceedance levels (calculated by summing probabilities over all the sources, magnitudes, and distances

Tectonic elements around Egypt

Tectonic boundaries of the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Seismicity data from ENSN and NEIC. The following Acronyms represent: AEG-Aegean Sea; Al-Alexandria City; CY-Cyprus; ERAEratosthenes Seamount; FL-Florence; IB-Ionian Basin; MRMediterranean Ridge; LEV-Levantine Basin; LF-Levant Fault; NDNile Delta. Small diamond indicates the location of Cairo and Beni Suef cities. Abu Zenima is indicated by the heavy red diamond.

Recent seismicity of Egypt from 1900-2012 (unified catalogue Mw)

Recent Seismicity

Seismicity of the northern Red Sea region from 1900 to 2010. red rectangular is the city of Abu Zenima

The seismicty from 1900 to 2012 in and around the wind farm Zafaran, red sea

Map shows the recorded earthquakes used to calculate, seismotectonic model and seismic hazard within a circle of radius 350 km from the farm site

seismtectonic model used to calculate seismic hazard estimation for the farm site

Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 23 24 25 26 35 36 37 38

M max 6.45 +- 0.38 6.55 +- 0.29 5.55 +- 1.90 5.15 +- 0.44 6.25 +- 0.38 5.3 3.95 +- 0.88 4.40 +- 00 6.75 +- 0.22 5.25 +- 0.23 5.65 5.55 +- 0.24 6.15 +- 0.30 5.65 +- 0.50 6.45 +- 0.26 5.65 +- 3.02 5.35 +- 0.36 6.55 +- 0.68 6.35 +- 0.35 3.95 +- 0.65 6.35 6.35 5.35 5.35 +- 0.45 6.05 +- 00

M min 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3

BETA 2.29 +- 0.17 2.09+-0.32 2.66 +- 0.45 1.15 +- 0.00 2.50 +- 0.31 1.55 +- 0.71 3.42 +- 0.00 3.45 +- 0.00 1.90 +- 0.13 1.36 +- 0.26 1.15 +- 0.00 1.15 +- 0.00 1.15 +- 0.00 1.15 +- 0.00 1.16 +- 0.00 1.15 +- 0.00 1.18 +- 0.49 1.25 +- 0.27 1.93 +- 0.26 3.45 +- 0.00 1.44 +- 0.43 1.30 +- 0.45 3.39 +- 0.00 3.45 +- 0.00 3.45 +- 0.00

b 1.00 +- 0.0 0.91+-0.14 1.16 +- 0.19 0.60+-0.25 1.09 +- 0.14 0.67 +- 0.31 1.48 +- 0.00 1.50 +- 0.00 0.82 +- 0.05 0.59 +- 0.11 0.50 +- 0.00 0.50 +- 0.00 0.50 +- 0.00 0.50 +- 0.00 0.50 +- 0.00 0.50 +- 0.00 0.51 +- 0.21 0.54 +- 0.12 0.84 +- 0.11 1.50 +- 0.00 0.62 +- 0.19 0.56 +- 0.19 1.47 +- 0.00 1.50 +- 0.00 1.50 +- 0.00

Mmax LAMBDA Averg. Depth obs. 6.919 +- 1.299 14.5 6.2 3.051 +- 0.764 15.17 6.3 1.430 +- 0.405 14.72 5.3 0.605 +- 0.218 14.42 4.9 2.064 +- 0.565 13.03 6 0.383 +- 0.146 12.52 5.3 0.337 +- 0.173 14.82 3.7 11.28 4.4 5.569 +- 1.047 15.63 6.5 2.753 +- 0.641 23.15 5 5.65 +- 2.28 33.27 5.4 1.294 +- 0.319 25.97 5.3 6.600 +- 1.786 27.27 5.9 1.917 +- 0.605 29.33 5.4 1.611 +- 0.353 25.25 6.2 0.244 +- 0.131 33 5.4 0.508 +- 0.182 18.07 5.1 1.060 +- 0.264 22.64 6.3 1.561 +- 0.384 26.14 6.1 0.472 +- 0.226 12.36 3.7 0.569 +- 0.212 26.125 6.1 0.717 +- 0.275 17.59 6.1 2.766 +- 0.672 18.48 5.1 7.752 +- 1.614 20.76 5.1 4.630 +- 0.961 12.08 5.8

Seismic hazard results at farm site

Seismic hazard results at farm site

Seismic hazard results at farm site for return period 100

Seismic hazard results at farm site return period 475

The obtained seismic hazard results for the wind farm site
acceleration (gal) PGA 0.1 0.2 0.3 1 100 yr return period 46.024 134 98.327 73.289 26.395 475 yr return period 92.131 245.35 206.44 159.47 55.858

13.648

27.698

Simulation of the biggest effected earthquakes from different seismic sources to the wind farm site
123Ground motion parameters: Source parameters. Path parameters. Site parameters.

Stochastic method 1- Peak ground acceleration. 2- Peak ground velocity. 3- Peak ground displacement 4- Response spectrum

Comparison between ground motion amplification at bedrock site and soil site

Simulation of time history of the 1995 earthquake Mw 7.2 at the wind farm site hypocentral distance 225 km from the wind farm site

Simulation of time history of the 1992 earthquake Mw 6 at the wind farm site hypocentral distance 146 km from wind farm site

Simulation of time history of 1983 earthquake Mw 5.3 at wind farm site hypocentral distance 98.5 km from wind farm site

Simulation of time history of the 1969 earthquake Mw 6.7 at the wind farm site hypocentral distance 228 km from the wind farm site

SUMMARY
1- In the current study, I presented and discussed the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) and simulation technique at the wind farm site, Zafarana, Egypt that is based on spectral parameters. 2- The PSHA build upon extensive research and database compilation 3- the seismic source model used, the ground motion adopted and the use of the spectral parameters for the first time at farm site, will permit site-specific uniform hazard spectra to be available, and hence allow improved earthquake-resistant design 4- The hazard is calculated at the Bedrock condition 5- We used the 10% and 20% chance of exceedence in 50 years, which is corresponding to about 475 and 100 years return period. 6- the simulation techinque is used to obtain time history at the wind farm site for the biggest effective earthquakes from different seismic sources.

GROUND RESPONSE ANALYSIS OF ZAFARANA WIND FARM, GULF OF SUEZ, EGYPT

By Dr. Heba Kamal

Soil Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering Institute, Housing and Building National Research Center (HBRC)

Introduction
Seismic micro hazard zonation is the first step towards a seismic risk analysis and mitigation strategy.
Essential here is to obtain a proper understanding of the local subsurface conditions and to evaluate ground shaking effects. In this study, the Zafarana Wind Farm , will be evaluated with respect to site amplification and site period. Boreholes from previous investigations will be complied to determine the variation of the soil profile as well as the characteristics of the soil layers within the study site.

Introduction
One dimensional ground response study will be done using program SHAKE2000 for equivalent linear analysis and program DEEPSOIL for non linear analysis. The synthetic and real ground motion generated and dynamic soil properties will be used for one dimensional ground analysis to study the site response of soil columns. The amplification of soil columns, peak horizontal acceleration variations and spectral acceleration both at rock level and ground surface will be studied and presented.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
For seismic response modelling in the topic of seismic micro hazard assessments the information needed in general as follows: Detailed geotechnical data (shear wave velocity, unit weight, shear modulus and damping and modulus reduction curve information ) Detailed geology data available near the site (borehole log information With defined material and formations) Digital seismic accelerograms (from real earthquake and synthetic one) Depth to bedrock level Ground water level

Earthquake Scenarios
Three Earthquake Scenarios was used in this study as follow:
Date Day M. Yr. 31 03 1969 12 10 1992 22 11 1995 Origin Time H Mn Sec 07 15 13 09 04 15 54.4 55.5 11.9 Location Lat. Long. 27.60 29.77 33.90 31.14 Depth (km) 20 21 10 MS 6.9 5.3 7.3

28.82 34.79

Geotechnical and Geological Features

Geological Features
The geological features indicate that the Zafarana project area consists of coastal and wadi deposits . There are no intensive faults at Zafarana area. However, some faults, taking the NW-SE trend, appear at the area between Quseir and Ras Ghareb and also between Marsa Alam and Quseir.

The Geological Map of Red Sea Governorate

Geotechnical and Geological Features

Geotechnical Features
Based on the results of the previous site investigation and laboratory testing of 595 boring holes subsurface formation consists, in general, of five layers described as follows: Wadi Deposit Clay Clay Stone Sand Sand Stone

Wadi Deposit
Reddish brown to yellowish brown wadi eposit that consist of gravel, sand, silt, clay and iron oxides.

Clay layer
Hard greyish brown clay with interbedded band of clay stone and sand stone pieces and traces of iron oxides

Clay Stone layer

Reddish to yellowish bown very weak to medium hard sandy claystone interbedded by thin to thick band of sand or sand stone

Sand Layer
Yellow to reddish brown sand with different precent of silt, could be cemented or clayey the layer is interbedded with sandstone or clay stone pieces , calcareous and with traces of iron oxides

Sand Stone Layer

Yellow to reddish brown fine to medium grained sands interbedded by thin to thick band of clay stone . It is sained by iron oxides

Site Response Analysis for Zafarana 3

The site investigation consists of 46 boring holes the analysis was done on 3 representative boring holes as following:

0 0 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.Shedwan, 1969 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.Dahshor, 1992 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.AlAkaba, 1995 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.S hedwan, 1969 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.D ahshor, 1995 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.A l-Akaba, 1995

0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0.01

0.1

10

100

0 0 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.Shedwan, 1969 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.Dahshor, 1992 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.AlAkaba, 1995 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.S hedwan, 1969 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.D ahshor, 1995 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.A l-Akaba, 1995

0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0.01

0.1

10

100

0 0 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.Shedwan, 1969 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.Dahshor, 1992 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.AlAkaba, 1995 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

0.1

0.2

0.3

Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.S hedwan, 1969 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.D ahshor, 1995 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.A l-Akaba, 1995

1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 0.01

0.1

10

100

Site Response Analysis for Zafarana 5

The site investigation consists of 100 boring holes the analysis was done on 4 representative boring holes as following:

0 0 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.Shedwan, 1969 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.Dahshor, 1992 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.AlAkaba, 1995 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.4 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.S hedwan, 1969 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.D ahshor, 1992 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.A l-Akaba, 1995 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0.01

0.1

10

100

0 0 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.Shedwan, 1969 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.Dahshor, 1992 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.AlAkaba, 1995 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.S hedwan, 1969 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.D ahshor, 1995 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.A l-Akaba, 1995 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0.01

0.1

10

100

0 0 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.Shedwan, 1969 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.Dahshor, 1992 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.AlAkaba, 1995 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.5 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.S hedwan, 1969 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.D ahshor, 1995 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.A l-Akaba, 1995 0.45 0.4 0.35 0.3 0.25 0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 0.01 0.1 1 10 100

0 0 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.Shedwan, 1969 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.Dahshor, 1992 a max with depth Darendeli, 2001.AlAkaba, 1995 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.7 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.S hedwan, 1969 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.D ahshor, 1992 Spectral Acceleration with time,Darendeli,2001.A l-Akaba, 1995 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 0.01

0.1

10

100

SUMMARY
1- In the current study, I presented and discussed the ground response analysis using equivalent linear method by SHAHE2000.
2- The amax with depth and response spectrum at surface were introduced for the three earthquakes scenarios . 3- The earthquake waves is amplified up to 0.3g if the upper layers are wadi deposit and clay layer. 4- the earthquake waves is deamplified if the upper layers are claystone or sand stone.

NUMERICAL MODELLING OF VESTAS WIND TURBINE TOWER, ZAFARANA WIND FARM

By Dr. Ghada Saudi

Structure and Metallic Engineering Institute, Housing and Building National Research Center (HBRC)

Seismic Risk Assessment of Wind Turbine Towers

Structure Studies

Ambient Vibration Testing

Input
ambient excitation (wind, micro-tremors, etc)

Linear System

Output
acceleration response measurement

Experimental modal analysis & Dynamic Characteristics

Natural frequencies Mode shapes Modal damping ratios

Ansys program V.12 is used to modal the tower to find its dynamic parameters (Mode shape and Frequency).In this modal, Shell63 element is
used to represent the tower. This element is defined by 4 nodes or 3 nodes. The program calculate the own weight of the tower by defining the gravity acceleration ( g ) = 10 m/sec2 and the material density that is considered as 7800 N/m2 . The total weight (hub, rotor and nacelle) as calculated is represented as 3D mass 21. The mass was applied in 12 node at the top of the tower so each node have a mass of 2300 N.sec2/m. The mass was applied in the three global directions (x-y-z) so that we can obtain the mode shapes and torsion of the tower in all directions. The modal extract about 100 modes of shape in all directions with a frequency range between 0.1 to 1000 Hz.

Theoretical modal

Various mode shapes as obtained from the theoretical model

Theoretical Mode1 1.204 Hz modal

Mode2 1.204 Hz

Mode3 6.509 Hz

Mode4 6.509 Hz

Mode5 17.218 Hz

Mode6 17.218 Hz

Mode7 19.077 Hz

Thank You