Argentina Poltica Cambiaria

por Eduardo Petazze

It is estimated that the average annual real devaluation of the Argentine peso during 2014 will be 16.3% if one takes into account
the prices received by producers or 23.1% if one takes into account the payroll of the private formal sector of the economy .
El BCRA publica el Tipo de Cambio Real Multilateral, corrigiendo las cotizaciones de una canasta de monedas por el CPI.
En este trabajo, se corrige la tasa de oficial de cambio del dlar por dos indicadores:

I.- ndice de la Tasa Real de Cambio del US$, corregido por la variacin de los precios bsicos del Productor
Para el 1H2014 se estima una devaluacin real del 22.6% Y/Y, segn los precios bsicos que reciben los productores.
ARG Producer Basic Price
US Producer Price
Real FX GVA weigthed
1 USD=$
2009 = 100
(2)
Agri.
Mfg.
Electr.
Farm
Mfg.
Electr.(1) (2009) $ 2009=100
Y/Y
2006
3.078
230.5
257.5
115.2
117.0
166.1
172.8
3.997
106.5
0.1%
2007
3.120
289.9
285.6
140.6
143.4
170.9
180.4
3.805
101.4 -4.8%
2008
3.180
338.0
330.7
158.4
161.3
181.0
189.1
3.593
95.8 -5.6%
2009
3.748
345.7
354.4
166.3
134.6
176.5
190.6
3.751
100.0
4.4%
2010
3.923
449.4
401.8
174.1
151.0
183.4
193.1
3.550
94.6 -5.4%
2011
4.144
513.5
451.5
187.5
186.7
192.8
203.5
3.657
97.5
3.0%
2012
4.576
565.4
509.0
239.5
192.5
194.3
209.6
3.639
97.0 -0.5%
2013
5.544
674.7
578.7
261.6
195.3
195.6
203.7
3.855
102.8
5.9%
2014
8.473
959.8
752.0
321.5
194.7
197.3
213.5
4.485
119.6 16.3%
2014 Y/Y
52.8%
42.3%
30.0%
22.9%
-0.3%
0.9%
4.8%
16.3%
16.3%
Own estimate (2) Based on futures ROFEX
ARG Producer Basic Price
US Producer Price
Real FX GVA weigthed
1 USD=$
2009 = 100
(2)
Agri.
Mfg.
Electr.
Farm
Mfg.
Electr. (1) (2009) $ 2009=100
Y/Y
199.2
Jan-13
4.977
596.9
543.8
250.2
202.7
195.3
3.785
100.9
4.0%
199.4
Feb-13
5.044
620.1
549.4
252.3
197.5
196.1
3.747
99.9
3.6%
199.1
Mar-13
5.122
621.7
554.6
254.3
203.8
196.1
3.813
101.6
5.3%
198.7
Apr-13
5.184
611.4
560.1
255.7
196.1
195.9
3.804
101.4
6.3%
203.5
May-13
5.284
619.8
568.1
270.1
203.0
195.5
3.856
102.8
7.8%
211.9
Jun-13
5.385
698.6
577.3
276.7
203.1
195.4
3.754
100.1
5.2%
211.3
Jul-13
5.507
693.4
584.1
273.9
200.7
195.2
3.803
101.4
4.8%
210.4
Aug-13
5.671
702.3
589.3
272.1
191.4
195.3
3.829
102.1
5.0%
210.4
Sep-13
5.792
721.2
595.1
264.9
188.0
195.1
3.839
102.3
4.4%
201.2
Oct-13
5.911
737.5
600.8
256.6
186.3
195.4
3.862
102.9
4.7%
199.1
Nov-13
6.136
734.1
605.6
254.8
186.0
195.5
3.991
106.4
7.8%
Dec-13
6.518
739.5
615.6
257.7
184.8
195.9
200.5
4.181
111.5 12.1%
Jan-14
8.018
798.0
639.6
261.1
188.6
197.2
215.1
4.974
132.6 31.4%
Feb-14
7.878
881.4
668.4
264.6
191.2
197.6
218.0
4.644
123.8 23.9%
Mar-14
8.010
903.4
687.1
263.9
204.6
197.4
215.6
4.679
124.7 22.7%
Apr-14
8.002
907.0
701.3
267.0
211.2
197.9
212.2
4.647
123.9 22.1%
May-14
8.078
927.5
712.5
308.7
209.4
197.5
216.0
4.566
121.7 18.4%
Jun-14
8.207
957.0
748.1
336.2
202.8
197.4
213.9
4.389
117.0 16.9%
Jul-14
8.406
975.0
774.9
351.7
197.9
197.2
213.5
4.325
115.3 13.7%
Aug-14
8.605
992.3
792.6
360.2
191.8
197.1
213.9
4.298
114.6 12.2%
Sep-14
8.810
1,018.1
807.8
362.8
187.6
197.0
215.2
4.286
114.2 11.6%
Oct-14
9.015
1,045.2
822.3
361.4
184.9
197.1
211.8
4.286
114.2 11.0%
Nov-14
9.213
1,055.5
831.8
360.2
183.8
197.2
209.0
4.327
115.3
8.4%
Dec-14
9.431
1,056.8
837.8
360.1
183.0
197.4
208.1
4.404
117.4
5.3%
1H14 Y/Y
55.5%
42.6%
24.0%
9.1%
0.1%
0.9%
6.5%
22.6%
22.6%
Last data (1) Based on WPU 054321 index (Dec. 1990=100) reformulated to Dec. 1984=100
Own estimate (2) Based on futures ROFEX

II.- ndice de la Tasa Real de Cambio del US$, corregida por la variacin de los salarios del sector privado (formal)
Para el 1H2014 se estima una devaluacin real del 24.4%, segn los salarios del sector privado.
Real FX Private Wages weigthed Arg. Wages Index
1 USD = $ Wages Private (formal, NSA)
2009 = 100
(1)
in real dollar
Argentina
USA ($/hour) 2009 prices 2009=100
Y/Y
2006
3.078
29.78
20.23
4.681
124.73
2007
3.120
35.36
20.95
4.139
110.27
-11.6%
90.68
2008
3.180
41.77
21.60
3.685
98.17
-11.0%
101.86
2009
3.748
49.57
22.19
3.753
100.00
1.9%
100.00
2010
3.923
61.87
22.57
3.214
85.64
-14.4%
116.77
2011
4.144
81.76
23.04
2.629
70.05
-18.2%
142.76
2012
4.576
106.50
23.50
2.260
60.23
-14.0%
166.04
2013
5.544
132.79
23.96
2.234
59.53
-1.2%
167.99
2014
8.473
168.62
24.47
2.750
73.26
23.1%
136.49
2014 Y/Y
52.8%
27.0%
2.1%
23.1%
23.1%
-18.8%
Own estimate (1) Based on futures ROFEX
Real FX Private Wages weigthed Arg. Wages Index
1 USD = $ Wages Private (formal, NSA)
2009 = 100
(1)
in real dollar
Argentina
USA ($/hour) 2009 prices 2009=100
Y/Y
Jan-13
4.977
118.46
23.88
2.241
59.70
-6.8%
167.49
Feb-13
5.044
119.39
23.91
2.256
60.12
-4.7%
166.33
Mar-13
5.122
120.97
23.84
2.255
60.07
-3.8%
166.46
Apr-13
5.184
122.96
23.92
2.252
60.01
-3.3%
166.63
May-13
5.284
128.98
23.80
2.178
58.02
-3.0%
172.35
Jun-13
5.385
132.43
23.93
2.173
57.91
-2.2%
172.68
Jul-13
5.507
135.81
23.81
2.156
57.45
-2.5%
174.06
Aug-13
5.671
138.38
23.79
2.178
58.02
0.3%
172.35
Sep-13
5.792
140.71
24.16
2.221
59.18
0.4%
168.98
Oct-13
5.911
142.50
24.04
2.227
59.34
1.1%
168.52
Nov-13
6.136
145.71
24.11
2.268
60.42
3.7%
165.51
Dec-13
6.518
147.14
24.30
2.404
64.06
7.9%
156.11
Jan-14
8.018
148.88
24.35
2.929
78.04
30.7%
128.14
Feb-14
7.878
151.17
24.58
2.861
76.23
26.8%
131.18
Mar-14
8.010
153.69
24.48
2.850
75.92
26.4%
131.71
Apr-14
8.002
163.76
24.38
2.661
70.89
18.1%
141.06
May-14
8.078
165.18
24.28
2.652
70.66
21.8%
141.52
Jun-14
8.207
167.94
24.38
2.662
70.92
22.5%
141.01
Jul-14
8.406
171.28
24.38
2.672
71.20
23.9%
140.45
Aug-14
8.605
174.49
24.37
2.684
71.51
23.2%
139.85
Sep-14
8.810
177.45
24.54
2.721
72.50
22.5%
137.93
Oct-14
9.015
180.16
24.56
2.745
73.13
23.2%
136.74
Nov-14
9.213
183.41
24.61
2.761
73.57
21.8%
135.93
Dec-14
9.431
186.01
24.72
2.799
74.58
16.4%
134.08
1H14 Y/Y
55.5%
27.9%
2.2%
24.4%
24.4%
-19.5%
Last data
Own estimate (1) Based on futures ROFEX
Tambin ver:
Argentina Monetary Policy and GDP
Argentina Current Account 2013