THE CITY MAGAZINE

june 2009 ART • INTERIORS • FASHION • MOTORING • BEAUTY • SHOPPING • BUSINESS • TECHNOLOGY • FOOD & DRINK • UK & INTERNATIONAL PROPERTY
june 2009 issue 20

ECological Recession
green debt peaks
Grand Millennium Hotels
WiN VIP TICKETS
OMANI OPULENCE
Our guide to holidays in Muscat
ALL THAT SPARKLES
Coutts London Jewellery Week
HOT PROPERTY
UK & international

I
S
S
U
E In partnership with

20
NEW BULL MARKET IN SHARES
OR JUST A LOAD OF OLD BULL?
Are the good times on their way back? The S&P 500 has continued
to rally and the general feeling is that ‘the worst is over’
T
he last few weeks has seen an
impressive run up in the global
equity markets, the S&P 500 has
gained over 37% since the March
market lows and the general feeling is that ‘the
worst is over’ and the good times are back.
Before I go any further and give you my
reading on the current situation, let me
say that I am not a bull or bear; I don’t get
paid to sell shares, I don’t have to give the
mainstream view, and I am not a doom
and gloom merchant. I trade markets both
long and short and I am happy to switch
between the two; nor do I just trade stocks
– I am happy to trade stocks, commodities,
currencies and bonds. For example, I am
currently short T Bonds, long Sugar, long
Cotton, short Cocoa, long the Canadian
Dollar, long NASDAQ 100 and short Yen to
name a few trades.
My aim is to stick to the facts of what
I see is happening, rather than emotions
and what many think should happen.
The overall trend for most global stock
markets has been, and is still down; if we
look at the S&P 500 it would have to close
at over 1200 for a long term buy signal to
be given and we are quite a way off from
this at the moment (currently 900). The
FTSE 100 would have to close over 5200
to give a buy a signal.
What we have witnessed is a classic
bear market rally – these up moves suck
new buyers back into the market and
allow the smart money to sell out. This
rally started as they always do, when the
majority doesn’t expect them, and are
very pessimistic. Of course, shorter term
traders can profit from these moves; I did
very well from trading Bank Of America
during this rally, a stock which I think is
now a long term disaster but I was happy
to ride if for a few weeks and make over
100% profit. I will most likely be short
again and ride the stock down again in
the coming months. Goldman Sachs was
another profitable trade moving for $74 to
$140 in the space of just over a month.
We are now moving into the seasonally
weaker time of the year and this lasts
until around mid October before we see
a traditional year-end rally. What we may
see between now and that time is a lot of
range trading for major indices. There is a
high probability that the S&P 500 will go
back to reach the March lows again before
2009 is out; this could happen around
September to October as the reality sinks
in that quick fixes don’t last!
Many are puTTing
Money back inTo The
sTock MarkeT because
keeping Money in cash
is providing negaTive
reTurns if you accounT
for inflaTion
The idea that the March low was a
bottom and we are now just going to go
straight up is not what happens in the real
world. From experience, lows take time
to form with lots of false starts which will
cause maximum pain for most investors.
This rally started with the US Financial
stocks reporting better than expected
earnings, I use the word earnings loosely
as if it was not for the government bailouts
(TARP) money, most of these financial
companies would be bankrupt today.
Also many one-off items and accounting
changes helped to make these banks look far
stronger than they really are. This has bought
the financials some time, but what about the
next quarter – and the one after that?
Another factor helping markets and the
banks is the near 0% interest rates around
the globe. Many are putting money back
into the stock market because keeping
money in cash is providing negative
returns if you account for inflation.
For the next few months the best
opportunities could be in soft and
agricultural commodities as well as
looking at individual shares both long and
short, and ignoring the over all indices.
Many of the soft commodities have come
back to life such as Soyabeans, Cotton
and Sugar. There has been little interest in
commodities apart from Oil and Gold over
the last few months. Many were burnt
from the massive falls last summer and are
in no hurry to get back in. However, this is
where I see opportunities. n
Vince Stanzione has produced a home study
course to teach private investors how to
benefit from trading financial Spread Bets and
Fixed Odds. For more information please visit
www.fintrader.info
 events 113
what'son Our guide to this
rd_dec shirt
month’s top events company.qxp 04/11/2008 11:24 Page 1

THE SHIRT COMPANY

Until 5 June
EVENT

FIN, FUR & FEATHER

The PerfectWhite Shirt. Simple.
Featuring Helen Musselwhite,
Catherine Rayner, Sonia Rollo, Rose
Versatile. Essential.
Sanderson and Helen Thorpe. This
show aims to bring together artists A chameleon, the perfect white shirt
whose work is inspired in very different
ways by the animal kingdom.
comes in many guises, all of which have
180 Lower Richmond Road, SW15
certain things in common. The
1LY perfect white shirt fits well, its sleeves
020 8246 4840 are long and well shaped, its top
www.wills-art.com button thoughtfully positioned.
Its colour is a bright,
complexion-flattering white.
The fact that it is made
well - and made to last
6 June - goes without saying.
EVENT
CHARLOTTE STREET FESTIVAL The perfect white
Head to the Charlotte Street Festival
for fine, fresh food and family
shirt is a classic.
entertainment. Several restaurants No one said it has to
including Chez Gerard, Bam Bau,
Andreas Greek and Bertorelli will be
be plain.
taking part in festival.
www.charlottestreetfestival.org

Tel: 0845 1192 343

www.theshirtcompany.com

5-14 June 7-11 June

EVENT EVENT
OLYMPIA INTERNATIONAL ART GRADUATE FASHION WEEK
& ANTIQUES FAIR The biggest showcase of young and
This is the largest international art and up-and-coming fashion and design
antiques fair, and brings together 250 talent; this year Graduate Fashion
of the world’s best dealers and galleries Week will feature more than a 1000 of
of fine art who will exhibit an array the finest BA Degree fashion students
of unique pieces such as Art Deco from over 50 universities. This is one
jewellery, old masters and a diverse of the few fashion events open to the
range of furniture. public.
Olympia Way Warwick Road
London W14 8UX London
www.olympiaartsinternational.com SW5 9TA
08705 125 240
www.gfw.org.uk

8 – 14 June 9-12 June

EVENT EVENT
COUTTS LONDON JEWELLERY CRAFT CENTRAL
WEEK Celebrate Coutts London Jewellery
Discover the beautiful and glamorous Week at Craft central with an exhibition
world of jewellery. Coutts London featuring 15 shining jewellery talents.
Jewellery Week has a whole host You can also mingle with the designers
of events going on across London at the informal ‘Meet the Maker’ event.
to celebrate jewellery, jewellers and 33-35 St John’s Square, EC1M 4DS
designers. Highlights includes: the 020 7251 0276
Hatton Garden Festival (13 June) and www.craftcentral.org.uk
Treasure, an event that will showcase
the best of visionary design, cutting
edge technology and new talent.
www.londonjewelleryweek.co.uk