i&'fe"

Next Steps for Team

Three

assified -- Commission Sensitive

Organization
Ultimate objectives and summer plans

Individual components of overall

objectives, including timelines

Possible hiccups

2
Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
)
Our Ultimate Vision
The final monograph will have "chapters" addressing:
The evolution of U.S. counterterrorism strategy
Counter-terrorism instruments and key allies
Policies toward safe havens and permissive
environments where al-Qa'ida flourished
How counterterrorism policy changed in the
immediate aftermath of September 1 1
The posture of the United States today
Each of these key questions raises a host of smaller
questions, perhaps deserving of a small monograph
We will also contribute to overalj Commission
recommendations regarding policy

Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive

 Goals for this summer
Request, obtain, and review key documents
Conduct initial interviews and initiate requests for senior
interviews
Begin identifying recommendations
Prepare interim products and/or drafts of selected
elements of broader plans
Interim product examples: reviews of overall U.S.
counterterrorism policy from 1993-1998 and same for
1 970-1993 (drafted by outside consultants)
^r> Draft product example: assessment of diplomacy as
/ a counterterrorism instrument
Purpose: identify procedures, problems, style, and
5y other issues as early as possible
All products will be revised as more information
Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
 Overall Research Plan
September January March May

Drafts or interim products to Plan for evaluating Initial drafts to

PZ and CK for initial review posture today PZ and CK

Final draft to
Submit list of PZ and CK
Mid-level interview
requests submitted Additional drafts or interim recommen-
products to PZ and CK dations

Inter-
views
Senior Mid-level interviews Senior interviews
completed completed
"Informational interview
interviews" requests
completed submitted
Final follow-up requests submitted

Docs

All major requests 5

jubmitted Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
)
Strategy: Key Issues
How did U.S. counterterrorism policy evolve,
particularly after the 1998 Embassy bombings?
Were there gaps in U.S. strategy?
What factors hindered policy makers?
Did policy makers try to expand their options?
How did policy change in the immediate
aftermath of September 11 ?

6
Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
)
 Research Plan: Strategy
June July August September

c Timeline of key meetings,

including classified meetings
I Contribute to overall
recommendations list

Timeline from Draft and edit report on

unclassified readings early stages of U.S.
CT policy

j
-*

Prepare interview invitations for

Conduct "informational" key mid-level officials
interviews
Inter-
views
Prepare invitations for
key senior officials
Complete

Docs
Submit doc requests to
key policy agencies
unclass readings
Submit follow-up
requests J
Review JIS files
and CIA timeline
Review initial
docs from NSC J Review initial docs received
from other key agencies
Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
Safe Havens and Permissive
Environments: Key Issues
How did the United States address al-Qa'ida safe havens in Sudan
and Afghanistan?
Review al-Qa'ida's presence in combination with other teams
U.S. goals in addition to counterterrorism in these countries
Points of leverage, if any
Use of different counterterrorism instruments- responses and
effectiveness
Did the United States address "permissive environments"?
Which countries were vital for al-Qa'ida (coordinate with Team
One)?
Did the United States confront these governments? How?
How did these countries respond? Were there gaps in U.S.
strategy and, if so, how were they addressed?
How did policy toward safe havens and permissive environments
change in the immediate aftermath of September 11 ?
Recommendations for current policy
8
Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
 Research Plan: Safe Havens
June July August September

Contribute to overall
recommendations list
7.

Draft on aspect of the safe

haven question (e.g. one
Prepare interview
country other than Afghanistan)
invitations for key
Conduct "informational" mid-level officials
interviews

Inter-
views

Submit doc requests to

key agencies
c Prepare invitations for
key senior officials

Review initial docs received

from key agencies

Docs
Complete unclass
readings
Review JIS files Submit follow-up 19
.and CIA timeline Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive requests __' v
Counterterrorism Instruments: Key Issues
Review available instruments
Initial list: diplomacy; criminal law; covert action; renditions; financial
restrictions; disruptions; military operations; public diplomacy; and
sanctions
Why were certain instruments used?
Why were others considered but not selected?
Were others not considered at all? If so, why?
What were the limits of each instrument?
What was the impact of each instrument?
Support from key countries (especially Saudi Arabia and Pakistan):
Types of support sought and limits on requests
Type of support provided
"Tradeoffs" of support
Key allies and important countries not (or partially) on board
How did the use of instruments change after September 11?
Identify lessons learned and recommendations

10
Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
 Research Plan: Instruments
June July August September

Contribute to overall
recommendations list

Draft on one instrument

(e.g. diplomacy) and/or

Inter-
Prepare interview invitations
for key mid-level officials j one key country

views
Conduct "informational" Prepare invitations for
interviews key senior officials

Docs
Review JIS files
and CIA timeline J Submit follow-up
requests

Review initial docs received

from key agencies
Submit doc requests to 11
kev policy agencies Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive
*',

Possible Hiccups
• Clearances for keystaff
• Delays in access to documents; may
prevent early drafting
• Delays in access to interviewees,
particularly at the senior level
• Computers, phones, etc.

12
Unclassified -- Commission Sensitive