Endgame for the RJD

Lalu Prasad Yadav By Seema Mustafa-October 4, 2013, 8:58 pm Corruption has finally caught up with once-upon-a-time Bihar strongman, Lalu Prasad Yadav. He is cooling his heels in jail after being found guilty of embezzling crores of rupees when he was the Chief Minister of Bihar, in what is now the infamous fodder scam. The Rashtriya Janata Dal leader, who was sentenced to five years of imprisonment on Thursday, also stands disqualified as a Member of Parliament under the Supreme Court judgment. This conviction carries political implications for Bihar in the forthcoming elections. One, it leaves the Congress without an ally in the all important state and hence opens the doors wide for a Janata Dal(U)-Congress understanding. This might not be formally announced before the elections, but is a more than probable post-poll reality. Talks have been held at different levels by leaders of both the political parties with the Congress confusion over old ally Lalu Yadav having been cleared by his conviction in the fodder scam. The Congress remains in search of an ally in the crucial state of Bihar, with the Janata Dal(U) now remaining as the only option. Two, it is almost certain that the JD(U) will be the direct beneficiary of Lalu Prasads conviction. In taking the decision to break from the alliance with the BJP, Nitish Kumar lost a substantial chunk of the upper caste vote. This had led to a much touted assessment by the BJP that the JD(U) would lose strength in the polls, with the RJD cutting into its votes as both in one sense were appealing to a common electorate of backwards and Muslims. There is a real possibility now of the Muslim vote in Bihar consolidating behind Nitish Kumar even as efforts to win over more sections of the backward vote yields dividends. The JD(U) will be wise to target the Yadav vote as well, with party president Sharad Yadav now required to play a more important role towards this end.

In other words, electoral prospects are looking up for the Janata Dal(U) that could become the magnet for the entire anti-BJP vote in Bihar. This will upset the BJP calculations for the state, and unless there is orchestrated violence, the electoral dividends will flow towards the ruling party. It might be recalled that in the last general elections, a section of the Muslim vote did go to Nitish Kumar, but this could not be described in any way as a consolidation. In these elections, the ability of the RJD to eat into this vote bank has been taken away with the sentencing of Lalu Yadav, and the Bihar chief minister clearly is in position now to pick up the votes without great difficulty. Lalu Prasad Yadav has tried to introduce his sons into politics, but the mantle has not passed to them. And it is unlikely that it will as his favourite offspring Tejaswi does not have any clout within the party, and less with the electorate. In 1997, when Lalu Prasad Yadav had to resign as the chief minister of Bihar following the same corruption charges, he had installed his wife Rabri Devi in his place. She was not perceived as a credible alternative, and in 2005 he lost Bihar to Nitish Kumar who has been in power since then. Tejaswi is a greenhorn and without the ability to lead the RJD, let alone lead the RJD to power. RJD leaders have been speaking of the sympathy factor in the hope that the party will retain its electoral moorings. Unfortunately, Lalu Yadavs decision to stay in Delhi for years has lost him much of the goodwill that had initially catapulted him into the privileged position of being a peoples politician. There is little sympathy for him now, more so as he was only now trying to regain a foothold in the state. The conviction thus, has come before he could revive his fortunes in Bihar, and anoint a successor in real terms. In these one-leader parties, succession is a major issue. Samajwadi Party chieftain Mulayam Singh Yadav was able to pass at least part of the baton of power to his son after winning the elections, and installing Akhilesh Yadav as the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. In the process, the Samajwadi Party has reconciled itself to being led by Akhilesh Yadav at some point, even though currently the old timers have remained resistant to his authority. Lalu Yadav did not get that opportunity, having been rejected by the people of Bihar. Hence his son Tejaswi has zero acceptability in the RJD and will not be able to lead the party, unless he suddenly demonstrates unknown prowess and political skills. That seems highly unlikely. Thus, without an effective leadership, the RJD will suffer immensely over the next five years, with a question hanging over its survival during these crucial years. In fact, instead of providing an opportunity for revival to the RJD, the 2014 elections could spell the death knell of the party, as doubtless several legislators and state leaders will look for other political pastures both before and after the polls. The conviction could not have come at a worse time for Lalu Yadav, as it has stymied all his political plans, leaving him in jail, his son and family confused and worried, and the Rashtriya Janata Dal at the edge of a cliff from where it can see itself hurtling down. (The Statesman/ANN) The writer is Consulting Editor, The Statesman