Managing Projects in real Life M. Nicolas Pejout Sciences Po Fall semester 16 October 2012
Table of Contents
1.
2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Introduction .......................................................................................................................... 3 The Project: La campagne de vaccination contre la grippe A(H1N1) ..................................... 3 The failure ............................................................................................................................ 4 Why did it fail........................................................................................................................ 4 Recommendations ................................................................................................................ 6 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................ 8 Bibliography.......................................................................................................................... 8 Appendix .............................................................................................................................. 9
Figures
Figure 1: Benchmarking the project Figure 2: Vaccined people per June 2010 Figure 3: The initial costs Figure 4: Timeline Figure 5: The framework of the project 4 9 9 10 10
1. Introduction
In 2009, the world was hit by a pandemic influenza popularly known as the swine flu caused by the H1N1 virus, which can only be contracted by person-to-person transmission. Before spreading worldwide the A (H1N1) virus was first detected in Mexico in April 2009 followed by a growing number of cases in the USA. In June 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared this new strain of H1N1 the swine flu a pandemic. By August 2010, the WHO officially announced that the H1N1 influenza pandemic was over. According to them, the A (H1N1) influenza caused 18,000 deaths across 213 countries (World Health Organization website, 2010). Concerned by the speed with which swine flu spread, countries responded to the warning and recommendations posed by the WHO and adopted protective and security measures in order to mitigate transmissions and to prevent deaths. So too did the French government, which initiated a nationwide vaccination campaign with the ultimate goal to vaccinate 75% of the French population. However, this campaign turned out to be a huge failure in public health since only 8.5% of the French people were finally vaccinated. During the swine influenza 312 deaths and over 1,334 severe cases were registered in France (Rapport Assemble National, 2010, p. 147). This paper aims to evaluate the failed project by analysing how and why it failed as well as by giving recommendations. For this purpose, in the first part of this paper we will briefly introduce the 2009 vaccination campaign in France, followed by its failures as well as the reasons for failing will be identified before proceeding to the last part where recommendations will be given.
The French vaccination campaign can be benchmarked to similar projects that had been taken place worldwide. According to the Rapport Assemble National (2010, p. 82), the figure behind clearly shows that the performance of the French vaccination project can be ranked around the middle. Thus, they were not the only country that failed.
Number of people (approximately) 6 million people 70 million people 22.78 million people 5.36 million people 4.54 million people -
3. The failure
Whereas French authorities and resources were greatly engaged in order to fight swine flu the vaccination campaign ended up as a national public health failed project title was given by the majority of newspapers dealing with the final results of this campaign. The goal was to vaccinate 75% of the population. However, in June 1st 2010 only 8.5% of the population was finally vaccinated. Not even half of those as considered as priority were vaccinated. According to the National Report of the National Assembly (2010) only 25% of pregnant women were vaccinated, 30% of children between 6 and 24 months, 10% of children from 24 months to 11 years old and 30% of health professionals. While we consider this campaign as having failed it is important to distinguish the nature of the different reasons. Some of the factors that led to the failure were based on the uncertainty of the situation. Still many others were management problems that could have been predicted and avoided.
if it is a known risk and we can calculate its frequency if it is a known risk and we cannot evaluate its frequency 3 http://www.who.int/influenza/preparedness/pandemic/h5n1phase/en/index.html
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[2 million for Sanofi-Pasteur, 10.46 million for Novartis and 35.84 for GlaxoSmithKline]- cf. Annex Etablissement cre le 5 Mars 2007 la demande du ministre charg de la sant, dacqurir, fabriquer, importer, distribuer et exporter des produits et services ncessaires en cas de crise sanitaire 6 Avis du Haut conseil de la sant publique du 26 juin 2009 relatif la pandmie grippale : http://www.sante.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/Avis_vaccination_vac_sans_adjuvantA_H1N1_080709.pdf
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5. Recommendations
Following the above analysis a few recommendations are now being developed, which might help to improve further vaccination or health-related projects in the future.
A) Managing uncertainties
1. More realistic estimations based on reliable information and data As described in the previous part one of the problems was related to the overestimation of the vaccines. Alarmed by the recommendation of the WHO the French government rashly ordered a too big share of doses acting according to the Precautionary Principle. Even though, the French government was not wrong in his reactions, they should have tried to step into a dialogue with the WHO first in order to get more information and data regarding the situation. This would have avoided an overreaction that had lead to an overestimation of the vaccines doses needed. For this purpose we suggest a creation of a special task force at the European Union level, involving several EU countries, to put pressure on the WHO for receiving clear facts, numbers and information. For a realistic calculation these kind of information are evident.
Law n 2009-879, July 21st 2009, stipulates that general medicine should be the first engaged in risky situations.
6. Conclusion
This paper has highlighted the failure of the vaccination project that took place in France in 2009. Derived from the failure this paper has further developed recommendations that could be considered for any future projects in public health. After all, it is important to underline that the goal of the project was very ambitious considering the short time of period that was available to carry out the campaign. The communication tools and the framework of the project were not adequate enough to address the issue and convince the French public to be vaccinated. Nevertheless, it has to be emphasized that in France only 312 people have died compared to the overall registered deaths rate of 18,138 people. Although the French government was able to distribute over 5 million vaccinations and far fewer people were affected by swine flu than had previously been predicted, the project was still largely unsuccessful in achieving its goals.
7. Bibliography
BBC website (2012): Health causes of swine flu. http://www.bbc.co.uk/health/physical_health/conditions/swineflumulti1.shtml [accessed 13 October 2012] Retrieved from
Service de presse du ministre de la sant et des sports (2009): Lancement de la campagne vaccinalecontre la grippe A(H1N1) dans les centres de vaccination. Retrieved from http://www.sante.gouv.fr/IMG/pdf/Lancement_de_la_campagne_vaccinale_contre_la_grip pe_A_H1N1_dans_les_centres_de_vaccination.pdf [accessed 5 October 2012] Schwarzinger, M. et al. (2010): Low Acceptability of A/H1N1 Pandemic Vaccination in French Adult Population: Did Public Health Policy Fuel Public Dissonance? PLoS One 5(4): e10199. Doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0010199
8. Appendix
Vaccined people per June 2010
Nombre de personnes vaccines Centres de vaccination quipes mobiles de vaccination en milieu scolaire et hors scolaire (notamment tablissements mdico-sociaux) tablissements de sant (1) Mdecine librale 4 168 021 553 937
Initial calculation
Fabricants Spcialits Commande initiale (en nombre de doses) Caractristiques du vaccin Prix unitaire en euros hors taxes Cot total en millions deuros hors taxes Cot total en millions deuros toutes taxes comprises 369,25 184,63 157,659
Multidoses 300 000 monodoses 5,8 millions de monodoses (avenant notifi le 13 octobre 2009) Multidoses
7 6,25 9,34
Baxter Total
Celvapan
10
0,5 674,94
0,528 712,06
Timeline
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Scenarios
1 2 la vaccination de la totalit de la population, qui ncessitait la commande de 130 millions de doses de vaccins la vaccination de la totalit de la population de moins de soixante-cinq ans et linjection dune seule dose pour les plus de soixante-cinq ans, dans la mesure o ces derniers bnficient dj dune certaine immunit grce la vaccination contre la grippe saisonnire, hypothse qui supposait lacquisition de 119 millions de doses ; et enfin, la vaccination dune population plus restreinte, se limitant notamment aux jeunes, aux personnes fragiles et aux personnes rle critique en cas de pandmie (PARCEP), pour laquelle 60 millions de doses savraient indispensables. Figure 6. Rapport (2010), p.26
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Doses de vaccins livres par les laboratoires Sorties des sites de stockage de lPRUS tablissements de sant Sorties dpartements doutre-mer Sorties centres de vaccination Dons lOrganisation mondiale de la sant Sorties officines Ministre des affaires trangres, collectivits et pays doutre-mer Vente au Qatar Campagne interne des ministres Total Stock disponible total au 5 mai 2010 Dpositaire PRUS Rpartiteurs pharmaceutiques Total Stock physique au 05 mai 2010 Dpositaires PRUS Rpartiteurs pharmaceutiques Don lorganisation mondiale de la sant en attente denlvement Total
44 052 200 1 565 700 459 600 9 160 000 9 400 000 1 277 000 858 000 300 000 83 500 23 103 800 18 464 700 2 483 700 20 948 400 18 464 700 2 483 700 3 365 000 24 313 400
volution des rsultats des sondages dopinion raliss par le service dinformation du Gouvernement
Date du sondage 22 et 23 juillet 2009 24 et 25 aot 2009 31 aot et 1er septembre 2009 14 et 15 septembre 2009 14 et 15 octobre 2009 4 et 5 novembre 2009 27 et 30 novembre 2009
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Delays
Vaccins
Total des commandes (nombre de doses) Hypothses de rendement de la souche Aot Septe mbre / Octobr e Octobr e/ Novem bre Novemb re / Dcembr e Dcembre / Janvier Janvier / Fvrier Fvrier / Mars Mars / Avril
12 000
38 000 4 934 000 5 434 000 7 651 000 8 151 000 10 368 00010 868 000
Septembre Octobre
5 434 000
17 896 000
Focetria (Novartis)
1 500 000
2 500 000
4 500 000
1 000 000 2 000 000 par mois 2 000 000 3 000 000 par mois
10 000 0 00 16 000 0 00
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