01 Pub 294

Performance Based Methods for
Service Life Prediction

Reports compiled by
CIB W080 / RILEM 175-SLM Service Life Methodologies
Prediction of Service Life for Buildings and Components
CIB Report: Publication 294
State of the Art Reports
Part A
Author:
Per Jostein Hovde
Part B
Author:
Konrad Moser
ISBN: 90-6363-040-9
March 2004
Copyright 2004 by CIB, NTNU and EMPA
CIB W080 / RILEM 175 SLM Service Life Methodologies

Task Group
Performance Based Methods for Service Life Prediction

State of the Art Reports

PART A
FACTOR METHODS FOR SERVICE LIFE PREDICTION

PER JOSTEIN HOVDE

PART B
ENGINEERING DESIGN METHODS FOR
SERVICE LIFE PREDICTION

KONRAD MOSER

March 2004
CIB W080 / RILEM 175 - SLM: Service Life Methodologies
State of the Art Reports ii

Preface
The State of the Art Reports on methods of service life prediction have been arranged in two
parts: A (Factor methods) and B (Engineering design). Each part, individually authored, is
self-contained and includes a title page, table of contents, summary, and references and may
contain additional information (e.g., preface, abbreviations). References are provided in
author date style and are exclusive to the Part in which they are used they have not been
cross-referenced. In order that reference can be made to a specific Table or Figure in the text,
these items have been enumerated using a prefix of either A or B pertaining the part in which
they are presented. Finally, pagination is continuous over the two parts.
State of the Art Reports iii

Overview of Reports
Considerable work has been carried out in the area of service life prediction as requisite tools
for helping assess long-term environmental effects, for maintenance management of
infrastructure systems, such as roads, bridges, waterways, water distribution and waste-water
removal systems, or indeed for maintenance of building envelope systems, envelope
components and related materials. Increasingly, building material and component
manufacturers are seeking systematic methods to assess the likely risk to premature
deterioration of existing products given specific climatic effects, or the most vulnerable
exposure conditions of new products in specified systems.
The current joint CIB / RILEM technical committee (CIB W080 / RILEM TC 175-SLM) on
methods of service life prediction of building materials and components was created in
September 1996. Prior to this, the joint CIB W080 / RILEM Committees (71-PSL, 100-TSL
and 140-TSL) have been responsible for a preparing a series of useful working documents as
well as co-ordinating the efforts required to bring about nine international symposia related to
durability and service life issues and a tenth being planned for 2005 in Lyon, France. The
number of significant contributions collectively presented in these conference proceedings
provides a substantial depth of knowledge to the field. Full utilization of this body of
knowledge for the benefit of manufacturers of building materials and components, designers,
specifiers, constructors, as well as asset and property managers, requires the development of
suitable guides and related information.
It is the aim of CIB W080 working jointly with the RILEM 175-SLM, to help develop the
necessary guides, methods, and techniques that will enable practitioners to select the
appropriate tools to predict service life. To achieve this aim, the focus of the technical
committee is on integrating existing prediction and service life techniques, tools, and
methods.
This publication comprises two parts of a State-of-the-Art report on performance-based
methods of service life prediction. A task group to develop the reports was established over
the course of the committee meeting held in Vancouver, Canada in June 1999. The
objectives of the task group were defined during were to:
Develop performance based methods for service life design based on models of
degradation and environmental actions
Develop a fundamental and scientific approach and provide framework for different
levels of design
Provide simplification of scientific models to engineering design
Develop a simplified and practical design approach (factor method)
The work item was divided into three sub-tasks that focused on different approaches to
service life prediction and included:
Sub-task 1 "Probabilistic" (also referred to as theoretical and stochastic)
Sub-task 2 "Engineering approach"
Sub-task 3 "Factor method"
Of the three sub-tasks undertaken in 1999, reports for sub-tasks 2 and 3 (Engineering
approach" and Factor method respectively) are provided in this publication (Parts B and A
State of the Art Reports iv

respectively). The third sub-task, Probabilistic, will perhaps be made available at a later
date, but was incomplete at the time of publication.
The following provides a brief synopsis of the contents of each report in the order in which
they are presented in the publication.
Part A: P. J. Hovde Factor Methods for Service Life Prediction
Sub-task item 3 Factor method
The Factor method is one that has been promoted in the AIJ (Japanese) Guide for Service
Life Planning of Buildings as well as in the subsequent ISO standard 15686-1 on Service Life
Planning. Although this method has been suggested as an alternate means of estimating
service life of components and materials, previous use of this method has not been
documented. The State-of-the-Art report prepared for this publication contains the
development, evaluation and use of factor methods for service life prediction as it is
presented in ISO standard 15686-1. The introduction and background information provide a
review of activities over the past decade that address the need for service life prediction tools
given the increased focus on sustainable construction both internationally and on a national
level. Mention is made of international standardization with ISO as well as the
harmonization within the building and construction sector of the EC.
Part B: K. Moser Engineering Design Methods for Service Life Prediction
Sub-task item 2 Engineering approach
The scope of the sub-task item included the following steps.
Gain an overview on the main methods applied to research and large engineering projects
using a scientific approach. These methods often apply mathematical models and
stochastic processing to the design data.
Investigate possible modifications to the Factor method that enhances the scientific basis
for the method.
Define as to what an "engineering method" should be in terms of complexity of models
applied and type and amount of data employed.
Propose one, or several engineering design methods preferably developed on and applied
to typical case studies.
The sub-task report provides a literature review and an appraisal of the state of the art. Three
examples are shown to illustrate the proposed procedure for different basic equations and
different quality of input data.
These reports represent the most recent advances in regard to the use of the factor method
and related engineering methods to establish the service life of building materials and
components. They provide useful background information on their development and offer
practical approaches to the use of either method of service life prediction. These represent a
valued contribution to the collection of practical technical information on service life
prediction.

Chair/Coordinator
CIB W080 /RILEM 175-SLM
Michael A. Lacasse
State of the Art Reports v

Acknowledgements
These reports have been compiled over the course of the 1999-2003 work programme of the
CIB W080 /RILEM 175-SLM Commission and the authors are indebted to the many within
the Task Group who made contributions, offered advice, to those who assisted in the review
of the documents, and as well to those who helped prepare the final version of the reports.
The CIB W080 /RILEM 175-SLM Commission is likewise particularly grateful to the
Norwegian University of Science and Technology and the Swiss Federal Laboratories for
Materials Testing and Research for having unreservedly supported the Task group leaders in
their endeavours over these years.

FACTOR METHODS FOR
SERVICE LIFE PREDICTION
State of the art

March 2004

CIB W080 / RILEM 175 SLM: Service Life Methodologies

Task Group

Per Jostein Hovde

N
o
r
w
e
g
i
a
n

U
n
i
v
e
r
s
i
t
y

o
f

S
c
i
e
n
c
e

a
n
d

T
e
c
h
n
o
l
o
g
y

(
N
T
N
U
)

D
e
p
a
r
t
m
e
n
t

o
f

C
i
v
i
l

E
n
g
i
n
e
e
r
i
n
g

a
n
d

T
r
a
n
s
p
o
r
t

T
r
o
n
d
h
e
i
m
,

N
o
r
w
a
y

Factor Methods: State of the Art 2

NTNU Norwegian University of Science and Technology
Department of Civil and Transport Engineering March 2004

PREFACE

This report presents a state-of-the-art regarding the development, evaluation and use of factor
methods for service life prediction, specifically the factor method presented in ISO 15686
Part1. Most of the report describes the background and development of the factor method, and
some theoretical evaluation of the method. This may form a basis for further evaluation and
implementation of factor methods as a simple and practical tool for estimation of service life
of materials and components of buildings in the design and engineering phases.

The technical approach to the development of the ISO factor method is not rigorous. It is in
fact highly empirical and may be limited to specific types of building components (materials)
used in specific contexts and under expected environmental conditions. This is to some extent
emphasized throughout the report. However, the report mainly gives an overview of the
development being presented, without giving a more comprehensive explanation and
discussion of the factor method. This may be a task for future work.

More recently, some projects have been carried out regarding practical application of the
factor method. This seems to be an increasing activity around the world, and the challenge for
the future will be to apply the factor method to estimate the service life of a wide variety of
materials and components in buildings, in order to present the method and obtain real
experience of how it works in practice and how it can be applied during the design and
engineering phases of a building. This creates an immediate need for input data, both for
reference service lives of materials and components, as well as practical values of the
different factors included in the method.

October 2003
Per Jostein Hovde


CONTENTS

SUMMARY

1. INTRODUCTION

2. BACKGROUND

3. THE NEED FOR SERVICE LIFE PREDICTION TOOLS

4. GENERAL REQUIREMENTS FOR
SERVICE LIFE PREDICTION METHODS

5. DESCRIPTION OF FACTOR METHODS

5.1 Development of factor methods for service life prediction in Japan
5.2 A factor method for evaluation of surface treatment of wooden
windows and doors
5.3 Factor method for estimation of service life of components and
assemblies as presented in ISO 15686 Part 1

6. EVALUATION OF FACTOR METHODS

7. APPLICATION OF FACTOR METHODS

8. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF FACTOR METHODS

REFERENCES
7
9
11
15
21
29
29
31
32
35
41
47
49



SUMMARY

This report contains a state-of-the-art regarding development, evaluation and use of factor
methods for service life prediction, especially the factor method presented in ISO 15686
Part1.

Chapter 1 and 2 give a short introduction and a background, respectively. In chapter 2, some
important activities are described that have taken place during the last decade regarding the
increased focus on sustainable development and the need for service life prediction tools, both
internationally and on a national level. The international cooperation of standardization within
ISO and the harmonization within the building and construction area in Europe is mentioned.

Chapter 3 contains some examples in which the need for service life prediction is explained.
Four different tables expressing design lives for different categories of buildings are provided.

In chapter 4 some general requirements are presented that have been set up for service life
prediction methods. There are needs on different levels of sophistication and for different
purposes, and it is shown that service life prediction is encumbered with considerable
uncertainties and that it is not an exact science.

Chapter 5 contains a description and explanation of different factor methods, including the
method described in ISO 15686 Part 1.

Chapter 6 contains an evaluation of factor methods. So far, this is mainly based on theoretical
considerations, since the ISO factor method has not been used very much in practice.

In chapter 7, some examples of application of the ISO factor method are given. Some of the
examples are theoretical in the way that they show how the use of factor methods can be
incorporated in design for durability and development of sustainable buildings. There are also
a few examples of specific application of the ISO factor method for service life prediction of
buildings or building components (facades, windows).

Chapter 8 contains some important aspects regarding further development of factor methods.



1. INTRODUCTION

Buildings and the built environment represent a major amount of the national real capital in
different countries. During the last century, there have been extensive construction activities,
and the existing building stock represents a great value that requires continuous investments
regarding management and maintenance as well as repair and replacement.

Durability is one of the most important issues in the building and construction area, as it
influences the following aspects of building materials, components, buildings and structures:

sustainability
service life
cost of repair and refurbishment
environmental impact

In 1999, the International Council for Research and Innovation in Building and Construction
(CIB) published a report describing an Agenda 21 for sustainable construction [CIB 1999]. In
the summary of the report it is stated that:

"The pursuit of sustainable development throws the built environment and the
construction industry into sharp relief. This sector of society is of such vital innate
importance that most other industrial areas of the world society simply fade in
comparison. Proper housing and the necessary infrastructure for transport,
communication, water supply and sanitation, energy, commercial and industrial
activities to meet the needs of the growing world population pose the major challenge.
The Habitat II Agenda lays stress on the fact that the construction industry is a major
contributor to socio-economic development in every country.

The construction industry and the built environment must be counted as two of the key
areas if we are to attain a sustainable development in our societies."

In Norway, it has been shown that the building and construction sector has been responsible
for approximately

40 % of the material consumption
40 % of the energy consumption
40 % of waste to landfill deposits

Similar figures have been shown for other countries. Compared to what is provided above
regarding the total value of this sector, it is clear that even a limited reduction in the values
for material and energy consumption, or waste, nonetheless represents significant values that
have potential for greatly affecting the sustainability of building and construction activities.

Likewise, it is expected that a major contribution to changes in this area will be caused by an
ability to understand what influences durability and service life of materials, components and
structures, to develop more durable materials and components and to establish reliable
methods for testing of durability and for prediction of the service life.


2. BACKGROUND

In recent years, there has been an ever-increasing focus on the needs to determine durability
and service life of materials, components, installations, structures and buildings. This has
been based on two important aspects:

Environmental issues scarcity of material and energy resources and the building and
construction sector as a big consumer of these resources, and the environmental impact
caused by buildings
Economic issues the total value of the built environment on a national level and the
value of each specific unit (buildings, structures, roads, bridges, quays, etc.) for the
owners (government, private sector or individuals). The conditions of the built
environment, the annual costs of management and maintenance and the life cycle costs
are of major importance be it for the economy of a country, or maintaining
competitiveness within an industry or corporation.

The importance of these aspects is reflected in several initiatives and activities at both the
international and national level. Some of these are briefly mentioned in the following
paragraphs.

Many of the activities were initiated after the UN Conference on Environment and
Development (UNCED) that was held in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, in 1992. This
conference resulted in two international agreements, two principal statements and an
Agenda for a global sustainable development (Agenda 21) [CIB 1999].

International research and development activities within the International Council for
Research and Innovation in Building and Construction (CIB), especially the working
commissions W60 Performance concept in building, W70 Management,
maintenance and modernisation of building facilities, W080 Prediction of service life
of building materials and components, and W094 Design for durability. The work of
W080 is carried out in partnership with a Technical Committee (TC) of the
International Association for Building Materials and Structures (RILEM). The number
and title of the joint committee is CIB W080/RILEM 175-SLM "Service Life
Methodologies".

The International Association for Building Materials and Structures (RILEM) has
published a Recommendation for prediction of service life of building materials and
components [RILEM 1989]. This Recommendation was the basis for the development
of standards for service life prediction within the International Organization for
Standardization (ISO).


International standardization work within ISO. In 1984, ISO published a standard
describing the principles for preparation of performance standards in buildings and
factors that must be considered (ISO 6241 [ISO 1989]). In the standard, agents relevant
to building performance are presented (e.g. atmospheric exposure) that have a major
influence on durability and service life. The most relevant technical committee
regarding service life for the built environment is TC 59 Building Construction,
where a sub committee (SC 14 "Design life") is working exclusively on service life. A
series of new standards for planning of service life of buildings are being prepared. In
Part 1 of the standard [ISO 2000] that contains general principles for the service life
planning, the Factor Method is described in an Annex. Part 1 also contains a general
suggestion of design life of various types of buildings. Part 2 of the standard [ISO 2001]
describes general procedures for service life prediction that is based on the RILEM
Recommendation [RILEM 1989]. ISO is also publishing a series of standards regarding
environmental management. The work is done within ISO/TC 207 Environmental
Management, and a set of standards describing life cycle assessment (LCA) is also
being published. The first standard describing the principles and framework of LCA
was published in 1997 (ISO 14040 [ISO 1998]).

In 1988, the Commission of the European Union (EU) adopted the Construction
Products Directive (CPD) (Directive 89/106/EEC [EU 1988]). Within the Directive, six
essential requirements are defined that have to be fulfilled for a building during its
economical working life, i.e. service life. The essential requirements are explained more
in detail in the six Interpretative Documents [EU 1994]. The principal objective of the
interpretative documents is to establish the link between the Essential Requirements
and the mandates which the Commission gives to European standardization bodies to
establish harmonized standards and to the European Organization for Technical
Approvals to establish Guidelines for European Technical Approvals.

Development of European Standards within the European Committee for
Standardization (CEN). Although no technical committees are specifically working on
durability and service life issues at this time, in accordance with the ISO/CEN Vienna
Agreement, certain ISO standards published within this area may also become a
European Standard (i.e. EN-ISO).

The European Organization for Technical Approvals (EOTA) was established under the
provisions of the EU Council Directive 89/106/EEC (Construction Products Directive)
[EU 1988]. The scope is to produce European Technical Approval Guidelines (ETAG)
for preparing and granting of European Technical Approvals (ETA). EOTA has
published a document that describes how to assess the working life of products related
to durability [EOTA 1999]. This document is based on documents published by RILEM
and ISO as mentioned above [RILEM 1989, ISO 1984].

In 1999, the EU Commission published a Guidance Paper [EC 1999] regarding
durability and the Construction Products Directive [EU 1988]. The scope of this work
addressed the issue of durability within the context of the implementation of Council
Directive 89/106/EEC (Construction Products Directive). The paper is intended for
specification writers, regulators and enforcement authorities within the European
Economic Area.


In Japan, work has been carried out for decades on how to deal with methods to predict
the durability and service life of materials and buildings both in the planning and the
management phase of a building. The outcome of national activities has been published
in a Principal Guide (1989) that was published in a short version in English in 1993
[AIJ 1993]. This Principal Guide is intended to show the fundamental concept of
durability within each stage of the life cycle of buildings, such as planning, design,
contract, construction, utilization, maintenance and modernisation and demolition. A
new performance based building code is now being developed, which will also make
use of service life prediction methods, and especially factor methods.

In the U.S., the result of a national study was published in 1993 regarding needs for
research and development to upgrade the civil infrastructure [NSF 1993]. A
comprehensive plan has been proposed, consisting of a research programme and a
programme for transfer of knowledge. The research activities are mainly focusing on
technical matters, but they will relate to other subject areas such as the natural sciences,
humanities and economics.

In many countries, there is a growing attention to establish regulations and standards to
address durability and service life issues during the planning, design, construction and
use stages of a building. In New Zealand, quantitative requirements for the service life
of building components were introduced into the Building Code in 1992 [BIA 1992].
The United Kingdom published a national standard in 1992 for prediction of durability
and service life of buildings and building elements, products and components [BSI
1992]. In Canada, a similar standard was published in 1995 [CSA 1995]. In Norway,
national standards have been published which describe specification texts for operation,
maintenance and renewal of buildings and civil engineering works [NS 1994] and
condition survey of construction works [NS 1995].



3. THE NEED FOR
SERVICE LIFE PREDICTION TOOLS

Many of the activities and documents mentioned in chapter 2 state the needs for service life
prediction of building products and components. Most of them describe general or overriding
requirements at a national or regional level, but at the same time they reflect an important and
increasing trend to focus on this issue. In this chapter, some of the specific requirements are
presented to illustrate how these are expressed.

In Europe, the Construction Products Directive (CPD) [EU 1988] has now been implemented
in the European Economic Area (EEA) countries. In the CPD it is stated that any construction
product which is covered by the CPD, shall have properties such that the building or structure
is able to fulfil specific essential requirements regarding

1. mechanical resistance and stability
2. safety in case of fire
3. hygiene, health and environment
4. safety in use
5. protection against noise
6. energy economy and heat retention

The requirements shall be fulfilled during an economically reasonable working life of the
products. The term working life is corresponding to service life. Each of the six essential
requirements are explained more in detail in six corresponding Interpretative Documents
[EU 1994], and these documents also contain a specification of what is meant by working life
and how to take care of durability issues for the construction products. The following
explanations are given for the working life in all the Interpretative Documents:

"1.3.5 Economically reasonable working life:
(1) The working life is the period of time during which the performance of the
works will be maintained at a level compatible with the fulfilment of the
essential requirements.
(2) An economically reasonable working life presumes that all relevant aspects
are taken into account, such as: costs of design, construction and use; costs
arising from hindrance of use; risks and consequences of failure of the works
during its working life and costs of insurance covering these risks; planned
partial renewal; costs of inspections, maintenance, care and repair; costs of
operation and administration; disposal; environmental aspects."

The Interpretative Documents also contain the following comments regarding working life
and durability:

"5.1 Treatment of working life of construction works in relation to the Essential
Requirement

(1) It is up to the Member States, when and where they feel it necessary, to take
measures concerning the working life which can be considered reasonable for
each type of works, or for some of them, or for parts of the works, in relation to
the satisfaction of the essential requirements.
(2) Where provisions concerning the durability of works in relation to the
Essential Requirement are connected with the characteristics of products, the
mandates for the preparation of the European standards and guidelines for
European technical approvals, related to these products, will also cover
durability aspects.

5.2 Treatment of working life of construction products in relation to the
Essential Requirement
(1) Category B specifications and guidelines for European technical approval
should include indications concerning the working life of the products in
relation to the intended uses and the methods for its assessment.
(2) The indications given on the working life of a product cannot be integrated as
a guarantee given by the producer, but are regarded only as a means for
choosing the right products in relation to the expected economically
reasonable working life of the works."

The Construction Products Directive is now a basis for introduction of performance based
building regulations in European countries, and thereby requirements for durability and
service life of construction products are implemented into national building regulations in
Europe.

In 1992, a new building code was published in New Zealand [BIA 1992] that contains
specific requirements for the service life of various parts of buildings or for construction
products. In the clause B2 Durability, the requirements are given in the following way:

"B.2.3 From the time a code compliance certificate is issued, building elements shall
with only normal maintenance continue to satisfy the performance of this code for the
lesser of; the specified intended life of the building, if any, or:

(a) For the structure, including building elements such as floors and walls which
provide structural stability; the life of the building being not less than 50 years.

(b) For services to which access is difficult, and for hidden fixings of the external
envelope and attached structures of a building: the life of the building being
not less than 50 years.

(c) For other fixings of the building envelope and attached structures, the building
envelope, lining supports and other building elements having moderate ease of
access but which are difficult to replace: 15 years.


(d) For linings, renewable protective clothing, fittings and other building elements
to which there is ready access: 5 years.

Brand [1994] has described the importance of specifying the service life of various parts of a
building in such a way that each part can be easily repaired or replaced, if the service life is
shorter than the service life of the whole building. The relation between the various service
lives has been illustrated by lines of different thickness, as shown in Figure A3.1.

Figure A3.1: Optimal relation between the service lives of different building components
and functions. [Duffy and Henney 1989]).

The Canadian Standard CSA 478-95 [CSA 1995] describes the relation between design life of
a building or a building component, and the durability of the component. In chapter 6 of the
standard it is stated that

"6.1 Buildings and Components
Requirements for durability may vary from building to building and from one
component to another. These requirements are related to intended use, to cost, and to
frequency, difficulty and extent of maintenance, replacement and repair. Requirements
for durability are expressed in terms of design service life. The design service life of
the building provides one basis for the determination of the design service life of the
building components."

Typical design service life categories for buildings that are given in the standard are shown in
Table A3.1.

In the Guidance Paper [EC 1999] published by EU in 1999, a table of assumed working lives
of works and construction products is given and is provided in Table A3.2. The table has been
developed by the European Organization for Technical Approvals (EOTA), and it is another

example of how quantitative values are given for service life which architects, consultants,
authorities and manufacturers of building products have to take into consideration and be able
to fulfil.

Table A3.1: Categories of design service life for buildings. (From [CSA 1995]).

Category Design service life
for building
Examples
Temporary Up to 10 years non-permanent construction buildings, sales offices,
bunkhouses
temporary exhibition buildings
Short life 10 to 24 years temporary classrooms
Medium life 25 to 49 years most industrial buildings
most parking structures
Long life 50 to 99 years most residential, commercial, and office buildings
health and educational buildings
parking structures below buildings designed for long
life category
Permanent Minimum period
100 years
monumental buildings (e.g. national museums, art
galleries, archives)
heritage buildings

Table A3.2: Assumed working lives of works and construction products (From [EC 1999]).

Assumed working life of works
(years)
Assumed working life of construction products
(years)
Category
Category Years
Repairable or
easily
replaceable
Less easily
repairable or
replaceable
Lifetime of
works **
Short 10 10 * 10 10
Medium 25 10 * 25 25
Normal 50 10 * 25 50
Long 100 10 * 25 100
* In exceptional and justified cases, e.g. certain repair products, a working life of 3 or 6 years may be
envisaged.
** Products not repairable or economically replaceable.

The standard ISO 15686 Part 1 [ISO 2000] also contains a table of suggested minimum
design lives for building components (DLC). This is given in Table A3.3.

The European Organization for Technical Approvals (EOTA) published a guidance document
[EOTA 1999b] that presents assumed service life (working life) for works and for
construction products. The service lives are shown in Table A3.4. The document also states
that

By EOTA (as well as CEN) the assumed working life of a product should be
understood as a basic assumption and reference to be considered when laying down
the type and severity of verification methods (e.g. number of freeze-thaw cycles) and
provisions relating to durability.


Table A3.3: Suggested minimum design lives for components (From [ISO 2000]).

Components
Design life of
building Inaccessible or
structural
Replacement is
expensive or
difficult*
Major replaceable
Building services
Unlimited Unlimited 100 40 25
150 150 100 40 25
100 100 100 40 25
60 60 60 40 25
25 25 25 25 25
15 15 15 15 15
10 10 10 10 10

NOTE 1: Easy to replace components may have design lives of 3 or 6 years
NOTE 2: An unlimited design life should very rarely be used, as it significantly reduces design options.
* including below ground drainage

Table A3.4: Assumed service life of works and construction products to be used by EOTA
(From [EOTA 1999a])

Assumed life of works (years) Working life of construction products to be assumed in
ETAGs, ETAs and hENs (years)
Category Years Category

Repairable or
easily
replaceable
Repairable or
replaceable with
some more
efforts

Lifelong
2
Short
Medium
Normal
Long
10
25
50
100
10
1

10
1
10
1
10
1
10
25
25
25
10
25
50
100

1 In exceptional and justified cases, e.g. for certain repair products, a working life of 3 to years
may be envisaged (when agreed by EOTA TB or CEN respectively).
2 When not repairable or replaceable easily or with some more efforts.

Life cycle assessment (LCA) can be an important tool that is typically used for establishing
more sustainable construction activities and achieving sustainable buildings. LCA techniques
have been adopted for other product areas where the service life of the products often is much
shorter (weeks or months instead of years and decades). Therefore, in the performance of
LCA of a building product, component or element, the service life of the actual object or of
each individual part of it has to be taken into consideration. The service life of a specific part
will have a great influence on the outcome of an LCA of the complete object. Selection of
alternative parts that have different service lives or where the service life varies depending on
alternative maintenance procedures, may also have a great influence on the overall outcome
of the LCA. The introduction of LCA into the building and construction sector will therefore
increase the need for service life prediction of construction products.


4. GENERAL REQUIREMENTS FOR
SERVICE LIFE PREDICTION METHODS

Service life prediction of buildings or building elements, components or products can be both
a complex and time-consuming process. To date, the methods have not been developed into
an exact science given the many different factors that must be considered that thereby make a
thorough service life prediction an interdisciplinary activity. Service life prediction can be
based on two different principal approaches:

Deterministic approach
Probabilistic approach

This gives the basis for development of service life prediction methods of various
complexities and with different requirements of applicability and needs for input information.
Three levels of service life prediction methods can be described as shown in Figure A4.1.

Research methods
Probabilistic

Engineering
methods

Simple estimation
methods
Deterministic

Figure A4.1: Relation between different types of service life prediction methods.

The factor methods that are discussed in this report are based on the deterministic approach.

In 1987, Masters provided some general requirements to a service life prediction system
[Masters 1987].

1. "You should define the problem explicitly before attempting to solve it.
2. You should define service life such that a) it can be measured (quantitatively) and
b) it can be related to in-service performance.

3. You should be open to new approaches and methods rather than blindly accepting
those of tradition.
4. You should use simple and systematic procedures having a basis in logic, common
sense, and material science.
5. You should be aware that unsystematic, qualitative accelerated ageing test data
can be used to make anything look good, bad, or indifferent.
6. You should recognise that a) it is impossible to simulate all possible weathering
stresses in the laboratory, and b) it is not necessary to do it anyway.
7. You should ensure that degradation processes induced by accelerated tests are the
same as those encountered in-service.
8. You should measure the degradation factors.
9. You should be wary of the correlation trap.
10. You should recognise that, by using systematic, quantitative procedure, valid
acceleration tests can be developed."

In chapter 2 a brief overview was offered of the development over recent decades of service
life prediction methods. Based on these general requirements, a recommended procedure was
developed in which a systematic approach to methodology for service life prediction of
building materials and components is outlined [RILEM 1989]. The methodology is said to
include the identification of needed information, the selection or development of tests, the
interpretation of data and the reporting of results. It uses an iterative research approach,
thereby permitting improved predictions to be made as the knowledge base grows.
Mathematical analyses needed for prediction of service life are not described in detail, but
either deterministic or probabilistic analyses may be used.

The RILEM Recommendation is intended to be generic, and therefore applicable to all types
of building materials and components. Specific test methods and equipment vary depending
on the materials or components being evaluated as well as user requirements and for this
reason, this information is not included in the Recommendation document. The
Recommendation has been used as a basis for the development of the ISO Standard 15686
Part 2 [ISO 2001] The principle of this generic service life prediction method is given in
Figure A4.2.

In the Japanese Principal Guide [AIJ 1993] it is mentioned that various principles for the
prediction of physical service life have been proposed. Reference is given to some national
development and standards (US, France, Australia, Japan), along with the work of joint
CIB/RILEM committees. It is stated that the system for service life prediction used in the
RILEM Recommendation [RILEM 1989] is based upon the same principle as used in the
Japanese Principal Guide. Some more information from the Guide is given in chapter 5.

The problems of prediction of durability and service life are discussed in the British Standard
BS 7543:1992 [BSI 1992]. It is stated that a designer needs to have information on durability
to meet the building owners requirements and to develop a rational policy for the durability
of the entire construction system. The necessary information can be obtained from

a) experience in the use of traditional materials
b) certificates assessing the performance of products
c) research publications
d) predictions of the service life of products provided by their manufacturers

Exposure and evaluation
Short-term Long-term
exposure exposure
No Similar
degradation
?
Yes
Analysis/interpretation
Process performance-over-time
or dose-response functions to
establish prediction models
Service life prediction
Field exposure
Inspection of
buildings
Experimental
buildings
In-use exposure
In-use-condition
(non-acc.) exposure
Accelerated
exposure
Dose - response
Dose - environmental classes
R
e
s
p
o
n
s
e
c
la
s
s
e
s

(d
e
g
ra
d
a
tio
n
in
d
ic
a
to
r)
Critical review, Reporting
Pretesting
Checking mechanisms and loads, and verifying choice
of characteristics and techniques by short-term
exposure
Preparation
Identification of degradation agents, mechanisms and
effects, choice of performance characteristics and
evaluation techniques, feedback from other studies
Definition
User needs, building context, type and
range of agents, performance requirements
Materials characterisation

Figure A4.2: Systematic methodology for service life prediction of building components.
(From ISO 15686 Part 2 [ISO 2001]).

Further, in BS 7543 the following statements are made regarding prediction of durability and
service life:

"4. Predictions of durability

A designer needs to have information on durability to meet the building owner's
requirements and to develop a rational policy for the durability of the whole
construction.
- - - - -
It is important to note the following:

(i) Prediction of durability is subject to many variables and cannot be an exact
science.

A new building is a unique design to meet a specific set of conditions on a specific site.
Unless these conditions are the same as those previously recorded for precisely the

same form of construction, the predicted life for the building and its parts can only be
an estimate.

(ii) Accelerated testing of components by itself can seldom be used to give an accurate
basis for predicting service life. Accelerated testing is not usually feasible for large
assemblies of components.

(iii) Relevant test certificates are not always available from manufacturers and may
have to be obtained by testing for a specific project."
- - - - -

"9. Predicted service life
9.1 Method of assessment

The predicted service life of a building should be assessed in one or more of the
following ways:

(a) Assess by reference to previous experience with the same, or similar construction
and in similar occupation or climatic circumstances.

(b) Assess by measuring the natural rate of deterioration over a short period of use or
exposure and estimating from the measurement when the durability limit will be
reached.

(c) Assess by interpolation from accelerated tests that have been devised to shorten
the response time to the action of an agent. The science of accelerated testing is
complex: care should be taken not to produce different effects by changing the natural
intensity of agents."
- - - - -
"Prediction of service life will normally apply to components and small scale
assemblies. Whole buildings and large assemblies are more often one-off designs that
make previous experiences of durability less relevant and because of their size it is
less easy to test their performance under controlled conditions.

Whatever method is used to assess it, the predicted service life is unlikely to be a
precise figure because the effect of an action in any building is not likely to be
accurately predictable. More reliable predictions can be made when there is a
correlation between the results of different assessments."
- - - - -
"In cases where the prediction of service life cannot be very accurate it may
nevertheless serve as a useful purpose when items are being ranked in order of
durability. The interpretation of data from tests requires skill and experience and
knowledge of building maintenance. It is often necessary to rely on an informed
opinion for service life prediction.

Martin et al. [1994] have carried out a comprehensive study on methodologies for predicting
the service lives of coating systems. They present a set of criteria for judging the adequacy of
any proposed service life prediction methodology. These criteria include the ability to:

1. Handle large variability in the times-to-failure for nominally identical specimens

2. Analyse multivariate data
3. Discriminate among these variables. That is, the service life prediction
methodology should be able to separate the few significant variables from the
many insignificant variables
4. Fit both empirical and mechanistic failure models to short-term laboratory-based
exposure results
5. Establish a connection between short-term laboratory-based and long-term in-
service results
6. Provide mathematical techniques to predict the service life of a coating system
exposed in its intended in-service environment

In the Canadian Standard CS 478-95 [CSA 1995] there is also a general description of
methods for service life prediction. The alternative methods are described in the following
way:

"7. Predicted Service Life of Components and Assemblies
7.1 General
It is understood that the predicted service life of any building component, including
repaired as well as new components, is approximate based on the assumed
environmental conditions and on installation, operating and maintenance procedures.

7.2 Methods to predict Service Life
7.2.1
The predicted service life of components or assemblies may be assessed by one or
more of the following three methods:
(a) demonstrated effectiveness, in accordance with Clause 7.3
(b) modelling of the deterioration process, in accordance with Clause 7.4; and
(c) testing, in accordance with Clause 7.5

7.2.2
All methods used to determine predicted service life should be based on a sound
understanding and application of the principles of building science, in accordance
with Clause 7.6.

7.2.3
For the prediction of service life or an assembly,
(a) demonstrated effectiveness may be applied where identical assemblies have been
used
(i) successfully; and
(ii) in the same environments
(b) modelling and demonstrated effectiveness should be applied where
(i) a similar component or assembly has been used successfully in the same
environments; or
(ii) proven components or assemblies have been used successfully, but in
moderately different environments; and
(c) modelling and testing should be applied where
(i) innovative components and assemblies are to be used; or
(ii) proven components or assemblies are to be used in significantly different
environments.


The degree to which an assembly or its components are innovative or the service
environment is dissimilar to one previously experienced should be established by the
application of building science principles."

A RILEM workshop [RILEM 1995] on environmental aspects of building materials and
structures was held in Finland in September 1995. In a very brief summary of the workshop,
it is concluded that:

Environmental aspects form a very complex problem area with many factors to be
included in the evaluation. This typically results in complicated evaluation and
assessment methodologies which are difficult to apply."
- - - - -
"At present, there is no standard comprehensive methodology for assessing the
environmental issues of the entire building process and the life cycle of building
products. The methodologies in use today are incomplete and may give contradictory
results. Many of the applied assessment methods concentrate only on some aspects of
the total environmental performance."

Based on these conclusions, it is stated that there is a great need for design methodology and
methods that are capable of analysing, evaluating and optimising the environmental impacts
together with other multiple performance requirements.

Sarja and Vesikari [1996] have edited a RILEM Report on durability design of concrete
structures. They also present a discussion of what they call durability models. These models
may be:

Degradation models mathematical presentations that show an increase in degradation
with time (or age) and with appropriate design parameters.

Performance models mathematical presentations that show decreased performance
as a function of time and appropriate design parameters.

Service life models mathematical presentations that show the service life of a
structure as a function of different design parameters.

The authors state that there may be durability models for different levels such as materials,
structural elements and buildings, and all of these can be used in durability design. Further,
they state that:

"7.1.2 Deterministic and stochastic durability models
Durability models can also be divided into deterministic or stochastic models.
Deterministic durability models are used in deterministic durability design where the
scatter of degradation (or performance or service life) is not taken into account. With
known values of parameters the model yield only one value (of degradation or
performance or service life) which is often the mean value. In some cases,
deterministic models are formulated to give an upper or lower fractile value instead of
the mean.

In many cases the information yielded by deterministic models is insufficient to
evaluate the risk of not reaching the target service life. Especially in the mechanical

design of structures, stochastic design methods are considered essential as the scatter
due to degradation is normally wide and the degree of risk may be great."

The authors have identified the following needs for durability models:

1. technical material development
2. ecological evaluation of materials
3. network level management systems for the maintenance, repair and rehabilitation of
structures
4. planning of project level repairs
5. risk analysis of important structures
6. design of a material mix and quality assurance at the construction site
7. structural durability design.

In the report the following evaluation is given regarding durability models:

7.2.2 Quantification of degradation, performance and service life

The final step in the process of producing durability models is quantification and
formulation. Statistical methods and theoretical reasoning are the tools used for these
tasks. Simplifications, omitting irrelevant factors and limitation of relevant factors are
often necessary actions.

Durability models can be based on empirical or analytical grounds. Empirical models
are based on experience and test results. They are developed from results of field
surveys and laboratory tests by applying correlative and other statistical methods.

Analytical models are based on laws of nature and fundamental reasoning. They are
created as a thorough analysis of degradation mechanisms and kinetics. Before
models can be applied, tests are usually required for determining values for some
material properties.

Very often, empirical models represent a viewpoint of engineers, and analytical
models that of material scientists. A drawback of empirical models is that mechanisms
of influence are poorly understood in models in general. Consequently, any deviation
from the limits of the model may not be possible without entailing risk. Analytical
methods are based on a deeper understanding of the characteristic features of
damage, but their practical importance may be small if the parameters in the model
are not measurable or the models cannot otherwise be brought to a level of practical
utilization.

Both the empirical and analytical viewpoints should be considered when developing
durability models. Models can be considered good when based on an analysis of
mechanisms and factors leading to degradation, yet subjected also to laboratory and
field tests.

In a discussion paper on service life prediction, Bourke and Davies [1997] present a list of
essential and/or desirable characteristics of a service life prediction system. They state that


"the relative importance of each is arguable, but important features may be
considered to include the following:

easy to learn
easy to use
quick to use
accurate
easy to update
easy to communicate
adaptable
supported by data
links with existing design methods and tools
free of excessive bureaucracy
recognises the importance of innovation
relevant to diverse environments
acceptable to practitioners and clients alike
reflects current knowledge
a flexible level of sophistication for either outline or detailed planning"


5. DESCRIPTION OF FACTOR METHODS

5.1 Development of Factor Methods for Service Life Prediction in Japan

During the 1980s, much research and development work was carried out in Japan to develop
methods and tools for prediction of service life of buildings, parts of buildings, and of
elements, components and equipment. As mentioned in chapter 2, a Principal Guide for
service life planning of buildings was published in 1989, and in 1993 a shorter version was
published in English [AIJ 1993]. In this Principal Guide the following principles are
presented for the service life prediction:

Evaluation of the physical deterioration
Evaluation of obsolescence

A general method for prediction of the service life based on the physical deterioration is
presented in the Principal Guide. The description contains a listing of the conditions which
influence the service life, and which are reflected in the factors used within a factor method.

"2.4.2 Set of given conditions

The given conditions shall, as a rule, be arranged according to the following
classification concerning the deterioration factors in addition to the type and usage of
building, space, part of building, building elements, components and equipments.

a) Items relating to the inherent characteristics of performance over time:
1) Performance of materials
2) Quality of designing
3) Quality of construction work
4) Quality of maintenance and management

b) Items relating to the environmental deterioration factor:
1) Site and environmental conditions
2) Condition of building

The method for prediction of service life determined by deterioration is presented more in
detail by use of some examples in Appendix 2 of the Principal Guide. The following terms are
used:

Standard service life: the time until a deteriorated stage is reached when the whole
building or its parts, elements, components or equipment have degraded under any one
of specified conditions, under the circumstances of normal design, construction, use,

maintenance and climate exposure. The standard service life has to be predicted on the
basis of experience.

Estimated service life: the standard service life multiplied by a variety of factors based
on a more careful consideration of the actual design, construction, use, maintenance and
climate exposure of a specific building, part of the building, element, component or
equipment.

In the Appendix 2 of the Principal Guide, eight examples are given of prediction of service
life of building elements and components. The examples are

Wooden buildings (in the case of biological deterioration)
Structural elements of reinforced concrete buildings
Steel frame buildings - paint coated steel elements
Waterproofing layer - exposed asphalt waterproofing system
External finishings (coatings) of reinforced concrete building
External wall tiling of reinforced concrete buildings
Aluminium fittings
Piping

For each example, the following factors are listed:

Factors relating to inherent durability characteristics
Performance of materials
Design level
Work execution level
Maintenance level

Factors relating to the deterioration
Site and environmental conditions
Building conditions

The factors are then quantified and combined in different equations dependent on an
evaluation of how and to what extent they influence the service life of the actual building
element and component. The estimated service life is calculated as the standard service life
multiplied by the various factors combined in different ways depending on the actual product
to be evaluated. In order to illustrate the method, two examples from the Principal Guide are
presented.

"2. Example of the method for estimating the service life of wooden buildings
(In the case of biological deterioration)

4) Estimation of durability value of the structural member in a unit (y).

The "y" is calculated by the following expression:

y = ys x B x C x D + M

where


ys: The standard durability value of structural members, which is calculated
according to Item 5)
B: The coefficient of the design level, which is calculated according to Item 6)
C: The coefficient of the work execution level, which is decided according to Item 7)
D: The coefficient of the site, environment and building conditions, which is
calculated according to Item 8)
M: The coefficient of the maintenance level, which is calculated according to Item 9)"

The references to specific items in the quotation above refer to the Principal Guide
[AIJ 1993].

The different items mentioned are explained in the Principal Guide, and it means that each of
the given factors can be described in more detail and quantified by other equations taking care
of the various aspects which influence each of the factor.

"3. Example of the method for estimating the service life of structural steel
frame buildings - paint coated steel elements

4.3 Procedure for estimating service life

The service life (Y) is calculated on the basis of the following equation:

Y = (Yss x Bs x Cs x Ms) + (Ys
p
x D
p
x B
p
x C
p
x M
p
)

where

Yss: Standard service life (years) of steel, according to Item 1)
Bs: Part of building where the steel element is installed, according to Item 2)
Cs: Execution level of steel element, according to Item 3)
Ms: Level of maintenance, according to Item 4)
Ys
p
: Standard service life (years) of coating film on steel component, according to
Item 5)
D
p
: Area and environment for deterioration of coating film, according to Item 6)
B
p
: Part of building where the coated element is installed according to Item 7)
C
p
: Execution level of coating film, according to Item 8)
M
p
: Level of maintenance, according to Item 9)

The references to different items are similar to what is explained for example 2 on wooden
buildings above. From the two examples we see that the number and combination of factors
are varied, based on what is regarded to be of importance for the different constructions.

5.2 A Factor Method for Evaluation of Surface Treatment of Wooden
Windows and Doors

In Germany, the Association of Window and Facade Manufacturers (Verband der Fenster und
Fassadenhersteller e.V.) have published a guideline for prediction of the durability of wooden
windows, based on the use of surface treatments [Merkblatt 1997]. In the guideline, some
factors are used to evaluate the durability of surface treatments, and the factors are:

f
B
: exposure conditions

f
S
: material qualities
f
R
: conditions to reduce the durability
The following conditions to reduce the durability are listed:

critical construction
spray application of the priming treatment, instead of immersion
too light or colourless treatments

The basis for estimation of the durability of the windows is a durability factor h, which is
given by a figure in the interval 1.0 to 4.0. The value of h is fixed based on evaluation of a
number of conditions, such as material quality, pre-treatment of the wood, colour of the
surface treatment and number of layers, and intervals of inspection. The resulting durability
factor h
ges
is then calculated based on the following equation:

h
ges
= h x f
B
x f
S
x (f
R
)
i

For each of the modifying factors the following intervals are given:

f
B
: 1.0 4.0
f
S
: 1.0 1.2
f
R
: 0.7

For the modifying factor f
B
, the value is also influenced by use of colourless of coloured
surface treatment.

The guideline has been established based on systematic studies and experience, and the
application of factors has no reference to the factor method of ISO 15686. However, it is an
interesting example of a similar treatment of durability and service life of some specific
building components by quantifying and combining important factors that are of main
influence. It is also interesting to notice that the factors are combined by multiplication. The
values of the factors are based on experience and are of course related to actual conditions in
Germany.

5.3 Factor Method for Estimation of Service Life of Components and
Assemblies as Presented in ISO 15686 Part 1

The concept of the factor-based evaluation of the service life as described in the Japanese
Principal Guide [AIJ 1993] has been introduced in the International Standard for service life
planning of buildings, ISO 15686 Part 1 [ISO 2000]. The method is presented in the
following way:

"9. Factor method for estimating service life
9.1 Outline of the factor method

The method allows an estimate of the service life to be made for a particular
component or assembly in specific conditions. It is based on a reference service life
(normally the expected service life in a well-defined set of in-use conditions that apply
to that type of component or assembly) and a series of modifying factors that relate to
the specific conditions of the case.
- - - - -

The method uses modifying factors for each of the following:

- factor A: quality of components
- factor B: design level
- factor C: work execution level
- factor D: indoor environment
- factor E: outdoor environment
- factor F: in-use conditions
- factor G: maintenance level

Any one (or any combination) of these variables can affect the service life. The factor
method can therefore be expressed as a formula:

ESLC = RSLC x factor A x factor B x factor C x factor D x factor E x factor F x factor
G."

The reference service life is similar to the standard service life as defined in the Japanese
Principal Guide [AIJ 1993], see chapter 5.1. In ISO 15686 Part 1 [ISO 2000], the reference
service life is defined as:

"service life that a building or parts of a building would expect (or is predicted to
have) in a certain set (reference set) of in-use conditions.

In the Standard there is also a brief discussion of the use of the factor method, and a
discussion of the reference service life as well as each of the modifying factors. This is
referred in chapter 6.



6. EVALUATION OF FACTOR METHODS

The evaluation of factor methods that is referred in this chapter, regards the factor method as
described in the International Standard ISO 15686 Part 1 [ISO 2000]. Since the introduction
of the method in the first draft of the International Standard, it has been evaluated in several
papers, both on a theoretical basis as well as based on some straightforward applications,
some of which are presented in chapter 7.

The ISO Standard itself contains a chapter that describes the factor method. In that chapter,
there is a general discussion as well as a discussion of the reference service life (RSL) and
each of the factors. In the general comments of the factor method, it is said that

9.2 Use of the factor method

The factor method is a way of bringing together consideration of each of the variables
that is likely to affect service life. It can be used to make a systematic assessment even
when reference conditions do not fully match the anticipated conditions of use. Its use
can bring together the experience of designers, observations, intentions of managers,
and manufacturers assurances as well as data from test houses.
- - - - -
The factor method does not provide an assurance of a service life: it merely gives an
empirical estimate based on what information is available. It is different from a fully
developed prediction of service life (as described in clause 8), which will ideally
provide the reference service life for a factored estimate. The distinction between
estimated and predicted service life should be made when a forecast of service life is
given. The information taken into account should also be recorded, so that it is clear
whether the estimate is particularly robust or not.
- - - - -
The factor method can be applied to both components and assemblies. When applied
to assemblies it is necessary to consider the interfaces (e.g. joints) between
components as well as the components themselves. For example, different external
environment and maintenance factors may apply to a whole assembly that relies on
sealants to weatherproof the joints between factory made cladding units than that
which would apply to each of the individual cladding units.

In the discussion of the reference service life, it is pointed out that the most reliable way of
establishing this is by use of the service life prediction procedure that is briefly described in
chapter 8 of ISO 15686 Part 1 [ISO 2000] or fully described in ISO 15686 Part 2 [ISO 2001].
This procedure is based on the RILEM Recommendation [RILEM 1989] that is mentioned in
chapters 2 and 4.


An interesting background for the evaluation of the factor method is a study that was
published by Assaf et al. [1995]. The authors do not refer to the ISO factor method, but they
describe the results of a survey of 90 contractors, 30 architectural/engineering firms and 20
owners from the eastern province of Saudi Arabia. In this survey, 35 defect factors were
found during the construction stage of large buildings. All the defect factors are gathered in
the six following groups:

Construction inspection
Civil construction
Contractor administration
Construction materials
Construction equipment
Construction drawings

These groups are mainly related to a few of the factors included in the ISO factor method.
This indicates that in practice a large number of factors and parameters that influence the
service life of a constructed facility, building or building component will likely need to be
considered. It will therefore be quite difficult to evaluate the influence of all these factors and
parameters, and to suggest reliable values of each of the factors of the ISO factor method.

A thorough discussion of the factor method has been presented by Bourke and Davies [1997].
The report is intended to give a contribution to the further development of the method
described in ISO 15686 Part 1 [ISO 2000]. The main content of the various chapters of the
report are:

Conclusions including listing of further research needs
Introduction with a brief survey of alternative approaches to predicting service lives for
components
Features of factorial approach to service life prediction, with a main focus on the ISO
factorial system
Analysis of critical factors affecting the service life
Experience of factor systems and recommendations on number of factors, including
presentation of some previous British Standards
Three worked examples that were presented in an informative annex in the ISO/DIS
15686 Part 1

In the general summary and conclusions of the report, the authors state that:

The system would serve initially as a means of permitting objective comparison and
analysis rather than as a firm prediction of anticipated years on service.

This however should not disguise that the effect of adoption of such a system should be
to optimise the selection of components, making large-scale, expensive and disruptive
remediation unnecessary. Equally, excessively durable specifications for short-life
buildings could be reduced. It would also highlight the ease with which durability
could be improved on the drawing board, thereby achieving enhanced performance
for minimal cost. The many benefits claimed for costs-in-use analysis could finally be
achieved, as the critical issue of how long the components should last could be
answered. As such, it could contribute to reducing the overall costs of construction
and improving the competitiveness of the industry.

Lounis et al. [1998] describe the state-of-the-art and the possibilities of standardization of
service life prediction of roofing membranes. The main part of the paper focuses on the
development towards standardization of service life prediction methods based on a
quantitative methodology using stochastic modelling of the performance of the roofing
membranes through the use of a Markov chain. However, in the paper are also presented
alternative efforts to establish service life prediction methods that may be applied for roofing
membranes. The authors refer to the development and evaluation of the factor method that
has been done within CIB W080 Prediction of Service Life of Building Materials and
Components. They state that:

Despite its practicability, this approach has many shortcomings, which include: (i) It
is not performance based and as such no identification of adopted minimum
performance requirement; (ii) Arbitrary choices of standard lives and adjusting
factors; and (iii) Deterministic approach, despite the large uncertainty and variability
of the service life. It appears then, that this method is neither readily available, nor is
it likely to be attainable in the near future.

In the conclusions, the authors state that the use of in-service performance data to develop this
stochastic model overcomes the difficulties associated with accelerated life testing and
empirical factorial approaches.

Hovde [1998] has presented an evaluation of the factor method as presented in ISO 15686
Part 1 [ISO 2000]. It is not based on a practical application of the method, but just based on
considerations and discussions, e.g. within CIB W080/RILEM 175-SLM. Hovde stated that
there is a strong need for further evaluation of the method. In the short range, he asks for
input data both for the quantification of the reference service life (RSL) as well as for the
different factors in the equation. In the long range, there will be a need for a more
comprehensive evaluation of the factor method, including possibilities of quantitative
description of the RSL and the factors. Hovde also pointed out that the method should be
evaluated according to the general requirements for service life prediction methods, such as
the requirements given in chapter 4 of this report. He gives a brief discussion of the
following items that ought to be further evaluated:

Estimation of the reference service life (RSL)
Important factors
Necessary number and type of factors
Use of the factors in an equation
Reasonable span of the values of the different factors
Relative importance of the factors
Uncertainty of the factors
Factor dependency on material or component to be evaluated
Important considerations for practical use

The last item is illustrated in the Figure A6.1.

Tepl [1999] describes the possibilities and limitations for development of the factor method
into a simple and yet sufficiently general method for service life prediction of structural
members. After a presentation of the factor method, the author illustrates the use of the
method by estimation of the service life of a reinforced concrete structure of a one-story

factory hall. In the conclusions, Tepl states that the following critical circumstances affect
the service life and therefore require attention:

A structure may be exposed to a combined effect of aggressive processes
Combination of materials and the design of joints
Movable parts and the tolerances of these movements
Protective layers
Accessibility for inspection, repair or replacement of some parts.

The author also concludes that in order to achieve a further development and use of the factor
method, building contractors and prospective owners have to start using the method based on
the existing data and experience.

COMPLEXITY SIMPLICITY

APPLICABILITY CREDIBILITY

Figure A6.1: Relations to take into consideration in evaluation of the factor method
(From [Hovde 1998]).

An improvement of the factor method by introduction of a statistical evaluation of the
individual factors has been studied by Aarseth and Hovde [1999]. A step-by-step principle
has been applied, and this was developed within the project planning area. Initially, it was
developed in Denmark in the 1970s, but has since been further developed in Norway. It is a
tool for improving the quality of the basis for decisions in project planning under uncertainty.
As with estimating service life, a basic problem in project planning at an early stage is the
lack of relevant information.

A value of each of the individual factors of the factor method is given by use of a triple
estimate, a minimum value, a maximum value and the most expected value. In order to give a
reasonably good statistical representation of the triple estimates, an Erlang density function is
used. The authors have applied this modified factor method for estimation of the service life
of a wooden window, which is also used as an example in ISO 15686 Part 1 [ISO 2000]. By
using the simple factor method as shown in the ISO Standard, the estimated service life of the
window is 62.2 years, i.e. 60 years. By using the step-by-step principle and a statistically
modified factor method, the estimated service life is calculated to 50 6 years. In the
conclusions, the authors state that:

The step-by-step principle enables a stochastic handling of the modifying factors
in the ISO factor method by performing a triple estimate for each factor. After the
statistical calculation the estimated service life is expressed as three figures: the
expected value plus/minus one standard deviation.


The step-by-step principle also demonstrates a systematic approach to the
estimating process, including the process of defining, subdividing and estimating the
modifying factors in the ISO factor method.

Moser [1999] has also carried out an evaluation and improvement of the factor method by use
of statistical methods. Instead of a joint statistical treatment of all the factors as shown by
Aarseth and Hovde [1999] in the step-by-step principle, he applies an individual statistical
treatment of each factor. This is done by using different statistical distributions for each
factor (i.e. deterministic, normal, lognormal or Gumbel), and by giving individual figures for
the minimum, most probable and maximum value of each factor. Moser has given an
example of estimating the service life of windows on all four sides of a building. In his
conclusions, he states that:

The use of probabilistic tools for planning maintenance or replacement costs is no
longer only restricted to projects having large funding requirements or numerous
assets. Making full use of the information, e.g. given in ISO/CD 15686 and modified
by professional opinion, permits the use of variables instead of deterministic factors in
the equation for the estimated service life. The results give a much more detailed
insight into the service life of building components involved and allow a far better
planning of the investments required.

Rudbeck [1999] has made an extensive discussion of service life prediction methods in which
he describes the assessment of the reference service life (RSL). Different methods for
determination of RSL are presented, and a guideline for choosing between these methods is
suggested.

The author also presents a discussion of the factor method for service life prediction and
concludes that:

So before the most correct method can be determined, assisted by the field data, one
can only look at the possible advantages and disadvantages that the methods present.
From this viewpoint, the methods based on the ISO proposal with a probabilistic
approach, described by Aarseth and Hovde (1999) and Moser (1999), seem to be the
most usable. The requirement for input to develop the needed functions in the two
methods is the same, but they report the input (i.e. the functions) in different ways. The
method suggested by Aarseth and Hovde (1999) reports the data in a very aggregated
form (a low, a medium and a high estimate for each parameter), whereas the method
described by Moser (1999) enables the use of all available data. From a statistical
point of view, the latter method therefore seems to be the most reliable.
- - - - -
The conclusion of the discussion regarding the different methods for estimating
service life of components is that unless very large sample sizes are considered a
throughout probabilistic approach may not be the best solution. Some building
components are produced in large numbers, but as they are applied in numerous
ways, measurements of performance over time may not be comparable. Instead, the
focus may be on the hybrid methods, the coupling of the factor approach and the
probabilistic approach, due to the advantages this way to proceed can offer.
- - - - -

If the probability transition matrices for the Markovian model can be developed and
validated, that model would be the one recommended when predicting service life of
building components.


7. APPLICATION OF FACTOR METHODS

To date, the use of the ISO factor method for prediction of service life of building materials
and components has been very limited. Most of the published cases are described in research
papers or reports where examples of the use of the applications are provided. Widespread
practical application of the method has been limited due to the lack of knowledge of the
method among practitioners (i.e. architects, consultants or building owners and managers) or
due to the need for useful values of the various factors used in the method. Some examples of
application of factor methods are presented here.

There is also an extensive research and development going on regarding design for durability
of buildings, sustainable construction and development of sustainable buildings. Several
papers have been published during the last years describing different challenges in this area,
and they show the necessity of implementing service life of materials and components into the
overall methods. Several examples are Wyatt [1998], Lucchini and Wyatt [1999] and Wyatt
and Lucchini [1999]. In the later paper, the authors state in the conclusions that

Whilst there is a complex but important relationship between the building
performance the designer may have pre-defined and the level of reliability achieved
one cannot guarantee a buildings life future. One can however, be prudent and
accept the place of a service life practice and life care to at least seek a building
product life.
So adopting the service life approach that reflects materials, components and
systems service loss and durability would help to improve cost certainty of building
ownership and begin to address the challenges posed in striving for sustainable cities
and buildings. For it has become clear that designing for durability has an immensely
important contribution to make to both the work of CIB W094 and CIB W080 as well
as ISO task group responsible for developing the Design Life of Buildings Standard.
It is now believed that service life and its practice will come to form and be
seen as the corner stone of building asset managements life care.

Strand and Hovde [1999] have carried out at study of how service life data of exterior surface
materials (wood and brick) influence the LCA of the materials. The authors wanted to
emphasize the need for service life data in LCA, how the data occur and how they might
influence results. Building materials and components are used for a longer period of time
than most other products. LCA of a building product therefore necessitates gathering of data
that will be valid for a longer period of time. The building, components and materials also
have different life spans, as illustrated in chapter 3 in this report.

The authors apply the factor method as described in ISO 15686 Part 1 [ISO 2000], but mainly
highlight the use of factors E (outdoor environment) and G (maintenance level). LCA is
carried out for two climates (industrial and rural inland) and for facades facing north or south.

Different intervals for painting, cleaning and replacement are also used. In the conclusions it
is stated that:

Service life prediction methods (SLP) and life cycle analysis (LCA) deal with some
common problems. Most of the data in SLP are also needed in LCA.

Information regarding the variation associated with the ESLC is crucial information
in LCA. It is extremely important that the basis of both the stated SL and the
performed LCA is clear, like e.g. maintenance type and interval. In this study it looks
as if the maintenance is in fact the most important information.
- - - - -
It is a problem that LCA techniques themselves give rise to large variation e.g. due to
for example evaluation methods. LCA and SLP can be used together to optimise the
service life and the resulting environmental load from different materials. Further
development is needed for both systems.

Hovde [1999] has presented the need for service life prediction of passive fire protection
systems. He refers to the factor method as described in ISO 15686 Part 1 [ISO 2000]. Passive
fire protection has got an increasing interest and importance in relation to the introduction of
performance based building and fire codes. This makes it important to predict the durability
and service life of the fire protection, and this will be a specific area for application of service
life prediction methods.

A joint committee between RILEM and CIB (RILEM TC 172-EDM/CIB TG 22
Environmental design methods in materials and structural engineering) has been working
on development of methods for environmental design of materials and structures. A progress
report of the work has been presented by Sarja et al. [1999]. In the presentation of the
progress report it is explained that the incorporation of an environmental viewpoint into the
design of materials and structures, it is necessary to reconsider the entire context of the design
process in order to integrate environmental aspects into a set of other design aspects. Further,
this kind of process is called integrated life cycle design, and it is said that the aim of the
process consists of assimilating, in a practical manner, the multiple requirements of
functionality, economy, performance, resistance, aesthetics and ecology all into the technical
specifications and detailed designs of materials and structures.

The joint RILEM/CIB committee is producing a manual that will provide methods and
methodologies for structural design in order to meet the requirements of sustainable
development over the entire service life of the structures. The scope of the manual includes
both bearing and non-bearing structures of buildings, bridges, towers, dams and other
structural facilities. The main phases of the life cycle design procedure are said to be:

Analysis of the actual requirements
Interpretation of the requirements into technical performance specifications for
structures
Creation of alternative structural solutions
Life cycle assessment and preliminary optimisation of the alternatives
Selection of the optimal solution between the alternatives
Detailed design of the selected structural system


In the progress report a summary of the integrated life cycle design phases and the specific
design methods described in the manual are presented in a table as shown in Table A7.1.

Table A7.1: Integrated life cycle design process and central methods for application.
(From [Sarja et al. 1999]).

Design phase Life cycle design methods
1. Investment planning Multiple criteria analysis, optimisation and
decision making.
Life cycle (financial and natural) economy.
2. Analysis of clients and users needs Modular design methodology.
Quality Function Deployment Method (QFD).
3. Functional specifications of the buildings Modular design methodology.
4. Technical performance specifications Modular design methodology.
5. Creation and sketching of alternative structural
solutions
Modular design methodology.

6. Modular life cycle planning and service life
optimisation of each alternative
Modular service life planning.
Life cycle (financial and natural) economy
calculations.
7. Multiple criteria ranking and selection between
alternative solutions and products
Multiple criteria analysis, optimisation and
decision making
8. Detailed design of the selected solution Design for future changes.
Design for durability.
Design for health.
Design for safety.
Design for hygrothermal performance.
Users manual.
Design for re-use and recycling

In the description of the design process in the progress report, there is also a presentation of
alternative methods that can be applied for durability design. These are:

Durability design with structural detailing rules
Design of the environmental conditions of the structures for durability
Protection of the materials and structures against deterioration
Lifetime safety factor method
Reference factor method

The reference factor method is the same as the ISO factor method. In the conclusions of the
progress report, it is stated that

Concerning materials and structures, new basic knowledge will be needed especially
regarding environmental impacts, hygrothermal behaviour, durability and service life
of materials and structures in varying environments. Structural design methods that
are capable of life cycle design, multiple analysis decision-making and optimisation
will have to be further developed. Recycling design and technology demand further
research in design systems, recycling materials and structural engineering. The
knowledge obtained will have to be put into practice through standards and practical
guides.

As presented in chapter 6, Rudbeck [1999] has described alternative service life prediction
methods in his Ph.D. thesis. The thesis also comprises a description of integrating durability
in future building design, and this gives a demand for application of the service life prediction
methods. The author discusses the following two methods for integrated life cycle design
which were under development in 1999:

Integral Building Envelope Performance Assessment (IBEPA), developed by the
International Energy Agency (IEA) Annex 32.
Building Envelope Life Cycle Asset Management (BELCAM), developed by the
National Research Council, Canada.

Rudbeck also shows how the durability aspect can be integrated into the design process of
two flat roof constructions.

Hed has carried out a study of service life planning for a multi family building, which was
built in Gvle, Sweden, in 1999. The results have been presented in different publications
[Hed 1998, 1999, 2000]. ISO 15686 Part 1 [ISO 2000] was used as a basis for the study, and
the final results are given in [Hed 2000. The service life planning was integrated into the
design of the building and followed the building process from the design phase to the
beginning of the construction of the building. The report comprises three separate papers, and
in one of the papers is given a presentation and discussion of the application of the factor
method as presented in ISO 15686 Part 1[ISO 2000]. The author states that:

A problem is that there are still few tests performed of material and component
service life, comprising all the effects required of the building component when it is in
operation in the building, i.e. following the service life prediction methodology (ISO
1999).
- - - -
The accuracy of the estimated service life is of course suffering from this fact, so one
has to discuss if it is worth the effort of doing the estimations or not. If the goal is to
find a precise value it is clear that the goal is not reached. But if the goal is to improve
the general situation in service life planning the answer is yes.

The factor method in ISO/DIS 15686-1 is meant to be a tool to improve the estimation
of the service life. It was found in the project that this method did not improve service
life estimations. This opinion is summarised in the following.
Uncertainty of RSLC and values of Factors. The factorial formula (1)
comprises in the right side of a reference value (RSLC) and the adjusting Factors, A to
G. If the reference value cannot be determined accurately it is not appropriate to
adjust these values with a set of uncertain Factors.
Uncertainty of the effect by combination of Factors. The method does not
support the thoughts that one needs knowledge of cause and effect to estimate the
service life. The estimation will be based on uncontrollable occurrences, which can
act independently of each other.

In Finland, a project has been carried out to develop an information management system
concerning service life of building products. The purpose of the system is to serve for
designers, contractors and organizations responsible for the care and maintenance of
buildings. The subject is dealt with from the point of view of product manufacturers paying

attention on the content, formulation and delivery of the service life information offered by
the manufacturers.

The project results are presented in a report [Hkkinen et al. 2001] in which a comprehensive
information system of service life behaviour of building products is introduced. The idea is
that this information is given by the manufacturers and it is needed in building design,
building and assembling and within the use, care and maintenance of buildings. However, the
report does not deal with the service life prediction principles and methods.

An important part of the project was aimed at developing service life prediction methods for
facades and roof coverings. It covered facades made of concrete, masonry, timber and steel
plate and roof coverings made of bitumen membrane, steel plate and concrete tiles. The factor
method described in ISO 15686 Part 1 [ISO 2000] was used. Application of the factor method
to estimate the service life of concrete in facades was presented by Vesikari [2000]. As a new
method of producing the factor values a computer simulation was applied. By this simulation
the environmental stresses, temperature and moisture content in a structural cross-section and
degradation of materials were described. This made it relatively easy to determine out the
essential properties and structural factors and their effects on service life.

The study showed that the use of only a single of a factor was not sufficient to cover all the
material effects or the environmental effects. Two partial factors were therefore established
for material parameters, i.e. A1 (dependent on air porosity) and A2 (dependent on water-
cement ratio). Similarly, two partial factors were established for environmental parameters,
i.e. E1 (dependent on the direction) and E2 (dependent on the geographical location). These
practical factors are multiplied to obtain the total effect due to material and environmental
parameters. The application of the factor method was illustrated for a multi-storey dwelling
facade in southern Finland having a design life of 50 years. The factor method was found to
be a suitable prediction method for practical service life design.

In a Nordic Research Training Course funded by the Nordic Academy for Advanced Study
(NorFA) that was carried out during 2001 regarding service life of buildings and building
products, some of the participants gained interest in the factor method as a simple tool for
service life prediction. The title of the course was "Service life of buildings - from theory to
practice", and the research students carried out individual project tasks related to the main
topic of the course. The project reports are at a preliminary stage, and the intention is that
they will form the basis for papers to be published in journals, conferences, etc. In the reports
are discussed the possibilities to apply the factor method for service life prediction of
different building products, components, structures and installations, such as surface products,
exterior wood products, external renderings, sulphur concrete, a solar collector and a fibre
reinforced polyester pedestrian bridge deck. This clearly underlines the fact that there is a
need for practical and simple service life prediction tools, and that the factor method may be
evaluated for practical use on a wide variety of products in the future.

1. One of the reports at the Research Training Course was presented by Marteinsson [2001]
in which results of an extensive condition survey of wooden windows in Iceland were
presented. The factor method was applied, as described in ISO 15686 Part 1, to estimate
the service life of the window components. Results from the condition assessment and
the house owners' answers to a questionnaire are combined, and a Weibull probability
distribution is then used to evaluate the estimated service life of the windows. In the
conclusions of the study, Marteinsson states that

"The results show that for some materials at least, the synergy between agents that
affect the durability of materials is so great that it is difficult to give each and one of
the factors in the standard a value even based on results gained by systematic study of
the object in use. The results show furthermore that for materials where the durability
gains very much from good care and maintenance, then it is a good way to decide on
the probability distribution of the service life from information from the user.
- - - - -
The realistic span in multiplication factor is thus considerable and the user of the
methodology will not be able to choose appropriate values for the factors without
extensive knowledge about materials and local building practice. In any case he needs
information about the main factors for the component and material considered, (and)
what span is normal for the factors. The methodology is far from easy to use correctly
and at the risk of results being evaluated as being more precise than is reasonable at
the present time.
- - - - -
Handbook of worked examples would be of great value for the designer, without this
freedom for each user to define the factors is too great."


8. FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF
FACTOR METHODS

The state of the art of factor methods, with main focus on the method described in ISO 15686
Part 1 [ISO 2000] that is presented in the previous chapters, should be a good basis for further
development and application of such methods. However, there are still many topics that have
to be evaluated further before the methods will come into a practical application. The
following topics will be of importance:

Determination and collection of data for the reference service life (RSL) and the
individual factors
Development of sound engineering methods that combine the benefits of more
sophisticated probabilistic methods and simple deterministic methods. A practical
approach seems to be to describe the different factors by use of statistical distributions.
Practical use of the methods in case studies of specific building materials and
components or of specific buildings
Application of the methods in life cycle assessment of building materials and
components and environmental evaluation methods for buildings
Application of the methods in integrated life cycle design and design for durability of
buildings



REFERENCES

Aarseth, L.-I. and Hovde, P. J. (1999): A stochastic approach to the factor method for
estimating service life. 8
th
International Conference on Durability of Building
Materials and Components, Vancouver, Canada, 30 May - 3 June.
Architectural Institute of Japan (1993): The English Edition of Principal Guide for Service
Life Planning of Buildings, Architectural Institute of Japan, Japan.
Assaf, S., Abdulmohsen, A-H. and Al-Shihah, M. (1995): The effect of faulty construction on
building maintenance, Building Research and Information, V. 23 N. 3, pp. 175-181.
Bourke, K. and Davies, H. (1997): Factors affecting service life predictions of buildings: a
discussion paper. Laboratory Report. Building Research Establishment, Garston,
Watford, UK.
Brand, S. (1994): How buildings learn. What happens after they are built? Viking, UK.
British Standards Institution (1992): BS 7543:1992 Guide to Durability of Buildings and
Building Elements, Products and Components. British Standards Institution,
London, UK.
Building Industry Authority (1992): New Zealand Building Code. Clause B2 Durability.
Building Industry Authority, Wellington, New Zealand.
Canadian Standards Association (1995): CSA S478-1995 Guideline on durability in
buildings, Ottawa, Canada.
CIB - Council for Research and Innovation in Building and Construction (1999): Agenda 21
for Sustainable Construction, CIB Report Publication 23, Rotterdam, The
Netherlands.
Duffy, F. and Henney, A. (1989): The Changing City, London Bullstrode, London, UK.
European Commission (1999): Durability and the Construction Products Directive, Guidance
Paper F, European Commission, DG III, Brussels, Belgium.
European Organization for Technical Approval (1999a): Assumption of working life of
constructional products in guidelines for European Technical Approval, European
Technical Approvals and harmonized standards. EOTA Guidance Document 002,
European Organization for Technical Approval, Brussels, Belgium, December.
European Organization for Technical Approvals (1999b): Assessment of working life of
products. EOTA Guidance Document 003. European Organization for Technical
Approvals (EOTA), Brussels, Belgium, December.
European Union (1988): Council Directive of 21 December 1988 on the approximation of
laws, regulations and administrative provisions of the Member States relating to
construction products, European Union, Brussels, Belgium, December.

European Union (1994): Interpretative Documents of Council Directive 89/106/EEC. Official
Journal of the European Communities, C62. Vol. 37, 28. February 1994.
Hkkinen, T., Vares, S., Vesikari, E. and Karhu, V. (2001): Service life planning. Product
specific service information, Report VTT-JULK-848, VTT, Espoo, Finland,
February.
Hed, G. (1998): Service Life Planning in Building Design. CIB World Building Congress
1998, Gvle, Sweden, 7-12 June.
Hed, G. (1999): Service life planning of building components. 8
th
International Conference on
Durability of Building Materials and Components, Vancouver, Canada, 30 May - 3
June.
Hed, G. (2000): Service Life Planning in Building Design. RD-report No 4. Centre for Built
Environment, University of Gvle, Gvle, Sweden, April.
Hovde, P. J. (1998): Evaluation of the Factor Method to estimate the service life of building
components, Materials and Technologies for Sustainable Construction, CIB World
Building Congress 1998, Gvle, Sweden, 7-12 June.
Hovde, P. J. (1999): Needs for service life prediction of passive fire protection systems. 8
th

International Fire Science and Engineering Conference (Interflam '99), Edinburgh,
Scotland, 29 June 1 July.
International Organization for Standardization (1984): ISO 6241 Performance standards in
building - Principles for their preparation and factors to be considered, Geneve,
Switzerland.
International Organization for Standardization (2000): ISO 15686-1 Buildings and
constructed assets - Service life planning - Part 1: General principles. International
Organization for Standardization, Geneve, Switzerland.
International Organization for Standardization (2001): ISO 15686-2 Building and
Construction Assets - Service Life Planning - Part 2: Service Life Prediction
Procedures. International Organization for Standardization, Geneve, Switzerland.
International Organization for Standardization (1998): ISO 14040 Environmental
management - Life cycle assessment - Principles and framework. International
Organization for Standardization, Geneve, Switzerland.
Lounis, Z., Lacasse, M. A., Vanier, D. J. and Kyle, B. R. (1998): Towards standardization of
service life prediction of roofing membranes. Roofing Research and Standards
Development: 4
th
Volume, ASTM STP 1349, American Society for Testing and
Materials, Philadelphia, PA, USA.
Lucchini, A. and Wyatt, D. P. (1999): A systematic vivendi for design for durability. 8
th

International Conference on Durability of Building Materials and Components,
Vancouver, Canada, 30 May - 3 June.
Martin, J. W. et al. (1994): Methodologies for predicting the service lives of coating systems,
NIST Building Science Series 172, National Institute of Standards and Technology,
Gaithersburg, MD, USA.
Marteinsson, B. (2001): Durability of wood windows and the factorial method of ISO15686-1.
Project report, Nordic Research Training Course "Service life of buildings - from
theory to practice". The Icelandic Building Research Institute, Keldnaholt, Iceland.

Merkblatt (1997): Klassifizierung von Beschichtungen fr Holzfenster und Haustren. VFF
Merkblatt HO.01 - Entwurf. Verband der Fenster- und Fassadenhersteller e.V.,
Frankfurt, Germany, October.
Masters, L. W. (1987): Service life prediction A state of the art. 4
th
International Conference
on Durability of Building Materials and Components, Singapore, 4-6 November.
Moser, K. (1999): Towards the practical evaluation of service life - illustrative application of
the probabilistic approach. 8
th
International Conference on Durability of Building
Materials and Components, Vancouver, Canada, 30 May - 3 June.
National Science Foundation (1993): Civil Infrastructure Systems Research: Strategic Issues,
National Science Foundation, Washington D.C., USA, January.
Norges Standardiseringsforbund (1994): NS 3422 Specification texts for operation,
maintenance and renewal of buildings and civil engineering works. Norges
Standardiseringsforbund, Oslo, Norway.
Norges Standardiseringsforbund (1995): NS 3424 Condition survey of construction works.
Contents and execution, Norges Standardiseringsforbund, Oslo, Norway,.
RILEM (1995): Workshop on environmental aspects of building materials and structures,
VTT, Espoo, Finland,.
RILEM (1989): Systematic methodology for service life prediction of building materials and
components. RILEM Recommendation, Materials and Structures, Vol. 22, pp. 385-
392.
Rudbeck, C. (1999): Methods for designing building envelope components prepared for
repair and maintenance. Ph.D. thesis. Report R-035, Department of Buildings and
Energy, Technical University of Denmark, Lyngby, Denmark..
Sarja, A. and Vesikari, E. (1996): Durability Design of Concrete Structures. RILEM Report
14, E & FN Spon, London, United Kingdom.
Sarja, A., Fukusima, T., Kmmel, J. and Mller, C (1999).: Environmental design methods in
materials and structural engineering - Progress report of RILEM TC 172-EDM/CIB
TG 22. Materials and Structures, Vol. 32, pp. 699-707, December.
Strand, S. M. and Hovde, P. J. (1999): Use of service life data in LCA of building materials.
8
th
Tepl, B. (1999): Service life prediction of structures - Factor Method. Stavebn Obzor
(Structural Horizon), Vol. 8, pp. 137-139 (In Czech).
Vesikari, E. (2000): Estimation of service life of concrete facades by the factor approach.
International RILEM Workshop on life prediction and ageing management of
concrete structures. Cannes, France, 16-17. October.
Wyatt, D. P. (1998): Building for life - a sustainable objective. The Design Agenda. CIB W96
Architectural Management, Brighton, United Kingdom.
Wyatt, D. P. and Lucchini, A. (1999): A service life design for lifecare management. 8
th


Swi ss Federal Laboratori es for Materi al s Testi ng and Research
berlandstrasse 129 CH-8600 Dbendorf Switzerland

Y
o
u
r

r
e
s
e
a
r
c
h

a
n
d

t
e
s
t

l
a
b
o
r
a
t
o
r
y

ENGINEERING DESIGN METHODS
FOR SERVICE LIFE PREDICTION

CIB W080 / RILEM 175 SLM: Service Life Methodologies

Task Group

Konrad Moser

EMPA Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research
Laboratory for Concrete and Construction Chemistry March 2004
Engineering Design Methods: State of the Art 53


SUMMARY

After a literature review and an appraisal of the state of the art, the subtask-group proposes a
basic approach that can be applied to the factorial method for standard cases as well as to
other service life prediction methods that employ mathematical relations for service life.
As opposed to using simple numerical factors, as is done in the original factor method, this
approach incorporates the use of probability density functions for factors as well as for the
service life of individual components to arrive at an overall estimate of a building systems
service life. The density distributions are established using reliable and understandable
engineering techniques applied in a systematic and straightforward manner.
Three examples are shown to illustrate the proposed procedure for different basic equations
and different quality of input data.


CONTENTS

SUMMARY..................................................................................................................................... 54
CONTENTS ................................................................................................................................... 56
1. SCOPE........................................................................................................... 58
2. LITERATURE REVIEW AND STATE OF THE ART..................................... 59
2.1 General ............................................................................................................................. 59
2.2 Need for Service Life Design........................................................................................... 59
2.3 End of Service Life .......................................................................................................... 60
2.3.1 General definitions................................................................................................. 60
2.3.2 Definitions in structural engineering..................................................................... 60
2.3.3 Design code and legal definitions.......................................................................... 61
2.3.4 Project definitions.................................................................................................. 61
2.4 Factor Method .................................................................................................................. 61
2.5 General Aspects of the Probabilistic Methods ................................................................. 62
2.6 Application of Probabilistic Prediction Methods ............................................................. 62
2.6.1 Markov model for the deterioration....................................................................... 62
2.6.2 Variables defined as distributions.......................................................................... 65
2.6.3 Practical examples of probabilistic methods ......................................................... 71
2.7 Developments of the Factorial Method Towards Probabilistic Methods......................... 74
2.8 Other Concepts................................................................................................................. 78
3. PROPOSED ENGINEERING DESIGN METHODS........................................ 80
3.1 Basic Requirements for Engineering Design Methods .................................................... 80
3.2 Proposed Principle ........................................................................................................... 80
3.3 Examples of Engineering Design Methods...................................................................... 80
3.3.1 Data acquisition by the recursive Delphi method.................................................. 81
3.3.2 Application of engineering design methods ........................................................... 81
3.3.3 Example 1: Engineering design method based on equation of factorial
method.................................................................................................................. 82
3.3.4 Example 2: Engineering design method based on modified equation
method and scarce data ....................................................................................... 86
3.3.5 Example 3: Engineering design method based on simplification of the
probabilistic method............................................................................................. 89
4. CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK ................................................................. 91
4.1 Proposed Engineering Design Methods ........................................................................... 91
4.2 Further Developments...................................................................................................... 91
4.3 Research Needs ................................................................................................................ 91
REFERENCES................................................................................................... 92
Abbreviations and database.................................................................................................... 95



1. SCOPE

The scope of work of the sub-task group Engineering Method was defined by the joint
commission CIB W 80 / RILEM 175 SLM: Service Life Methodologies in 1999 and entices
the following four steps:
1. Gain an overview on the main methods applied to research and/or large engineering
projects using the scientific approach. (These methods often apply mathematical models
and stochastic processing to the design data.)
2. Look for modifications of the factorial method towards the methods of the scientific
approach.
3. Define the level of complexity of models and type and amount of data to be used in an
engineering design method.
4. Propose an engineering design method or several engineering design methods, preferably
developed on and applied to typical case studies.
This report summarised the work done under the above scope.

2. LITERATURE REVIEW AND
STATE OF THE ART

2.1 General
A literature review was performed, mainly concentrating on conference proceedings (see
references for details). Reviewing the available literature, it was noted that, although titles of
papers in earlier conferences indicated quite specific topics on service life prediction, their
contents appear to be fairly general. Earlier papers mainly give outlines and point at areas of
work to be done [Masters and Brandt 1989].
As a consequence, this state of the art review concentrates on publications as far back as about
1996. In the following text, the relevant and in general the most recent references to the topics
dealt with are reviewed.
This report is limited to techniques for the prediction of service life. The term service life
often appears within life cycle analyses (LCA). Service life can be part of an LCA, but an
LCA is rather more comprehensive and comprises at least a calculation of all costs from
cradle to grave inclusive of all investments over the entire lifetime and an assessment of the
environmental impacts. LCAs as such are not dealt with in this report.
2.2 Need for Service Life Design
In 1996 the need for service life design was identified and standardisation was suggested
[Frohnsdorff 1996, Frohnsdorff and Martin 1996]. Nireki [1996] showed several approaches
to solve the durability and service life issues respectively and identified needs for further
research. In 1997 the need for a state of the art report to service life design was stated
[Jernberg et al. 1997].
In studies to the cost benefit analysis with regard to road bridges, several authors give
estimations of the functional service life of these bridges [De Brito and Branco 1998, Thoft-
Christensen 1997].
Aikivuori in Critical loss of performance what fails before durability [1999] points out,
that service life limited by durability is seldom reached, as components are refurbished earlier
due to other reasons:
Empirical research has been carried out to find out the actual reasons for initiation of repair
projects on buildings. This research has shown that the owners of the buildings actually
experienced the user requirements predominantly outside of the range of durability failures.
Only 17 % of the repair projects were initiated primarily because of deterioration. The
critical loss of performance seems to primarily be in the range of a subjective perception of
the building. Very little technical or economical rationality can be seen in the actual decisions
made on building refurbishment. In most cases the limiting factor for service life is not
durability.

Life cycle economics of the buildings have (according to the empirical findings) been
evaluated on a technically/economically irrational basis. Decision-makers pay little attention
to the condition and remaining potential for service life of the building components. They pay
very limited attention to economical expectations. Optimisation of economical factors of the
buildings is the primary goal in less than 10 % of repair projects.
If service life is seen as the actual time in service of the building components, the basis of
service life prediction models should not be based on durability or economics of the building
components only. Durability is of course the limiting factor for service life in the sense that
service life can not exceed the limitations set by durability, but in fact the actual service life
seldom reaches the full potential life time of the components limited by durability. The
forecasting of the refurbishment requirements should therefore not rely on the durability-
based concepts only. Asset and maintenance management should pay more attention to the
more critical perception of the perceived quality of the buildings.
The problem of service life design has attracted more and more attention, mainly due to
pressure from owners requiring such a design, supported by the CPD [1988] and EOTA
requiring the topic to be addressed properly (see [Sjstrm et al. [2002]).
2.3 End of Service Life
2.3.1 General definitions
All design methods require clear definitions of the end of the service life. This is however not
a universal and easily defined value. In general terms it is the point in time, when the
foreseen function is no longer fulfilled.
The properties of a building part can be split up into several sub-properties, e.g.
Safety: The integrity of the building part is maintained at the standard level of safety,

Function: The required function is fulfilled, (i.e. deflections are still within limits, a
window can easily be opened and closed, etc.),
Appearance: The expected appearance is given (i.e. the surface of the building part is
of acceptable appearance, the glazing of windows has not deteriorated or turned
opaque, etc.).
2.3.2 Definitions in structural engineering
In structural engineering, depending on the function of the part of a building or structure,
engineering criteria for the end of the service life are often used, in order to permit a
meaningful calculation of the service life as such.
Typical engineering criteria are:
A minimum concrete cover for a given environment.
This definition represents standard practice based on experience, but is not based on a
specific clearly defined service life.
The arrival of the carbonisation front to the outside face of the reinforcing steel is
considered to be the end of service life,
The arrival of the front of the chloride ingress to the outside face of the reinforcing
steel is considered to be the end of service life.
These two definitions are rather conservative.

The onset of spaulling is considered to be the end of service life.
This definition assumes, that either spaulling is impairing the appearance beyond
acceptance, or that shortly after the onset of spaulling, the required level of safety is
not maintained any more due to corrosion of the reinforcement now lacking the
protective concrete cover.
2.3.3 Design code and legal definitions
The Swiss code of practice code SIA 160 [1989] requires that both the safety limit state and
serviceability limit state be checked. As soon as properties of a structure are time dependent,
this requirement would actually enforce a service life calculation.
The European Construction Products Directive [CPD 1993] and the Swiss Bauproduktegesetz
(National law covering building products, 2001) both address service life as the period of time
during which the essential requirements have to be fulfilled.
2.3.4 Project definitions
The designer has to set up the relevant criteria for the building or structure considered in
consultation with the owner, depending on the requirements of safety, function and
appearance. For this purpose Quilling et al. [2002] propose a framework for service life
design which concentrates on a holistic approach and defines the necessary steps throughout
the design process in order to ensure the data exchange between the parties involved:
BRE (Building Research Institute) are currently developing a generic service life design
system which will provide specific guidance for concrete structures. This paper describes the
work that has been carried out to date in the development of the overall framework of the
design system. This framework will be expanded as the project progresses to provide targeted
guidance and tools to assist the practising engineer in achieving a structure that is durable
for its required service life and in optimising whole life costs.
2.4 Factor Method
The factor method and its developments are covered comprehensively in the respective part
of this state of the art report: Factor methods for service life prediction: A state of the art. A
summary can be found in Hovde [2002], a recent application in Abu-Tair et al. [2002].
The factorial method according to ISO/CD 15686 identifies the main factors of influence with
regard to service life and there from, a plain figure for the service life of the building or
building component can be calculated. Knowing the main factors of influence and the overall
behaviour of a component facilitates the understanding of the relevant issues, but does not
reflect reality very closely.
Examples on the factor method can be found in many publications, e.g. Strand [1999]. The
shortcomings of the method are discussed in some of them. These main shortcomings can be
summarised as follows:

The plain multiplication of factors, which in reality might have a different weight,
The result being a single figure instead of a result to reflect variance of reality,
The data still to be accumulated,
The lack of a direct relation to data gathered e.g. on environment, climate, installation
quality, in use conditions, etc. The factors are usually set basing directly on the
behaviour of the component in a given set of conditions, rather than basing on the

influence of individual parameters such as regimes of rainfall, temperature, wetting
time, type of use, etc.
Considering the efforts in gathering input data, the simple figure result of the factor method,
when executed as set out in ISO 15686, seems not to be adequate.
2.5 General Aspects of the Probabilistic Methods
Examples of service life predictions using probabilistic tools can be found in numerous
publications. Most deal with a single material or exposition. The main fields of application are
the service life of reinforced concrete, the service life of pavements (streets or airports), see
McNerney et al. [1997], Flintsch et al. [1997] and the service life of (wooden) building
envelopes such as windows, wall claddings and roofs.
Apparently concrete is a dominant material as far as durability under severe conditions is
concerned. Examples of durability in view of chloride ingress into concrete are quite common.
Most studies deal with steady states as far as exposition is concerned. Some of the authors
however, have considered transient (humidity, wetting, drying, etc., see e.g. Vu and Stewart
[2002]).
In many cases, data has been collected and variables fitted to them. Open databases to draw
upon seem not to be available yet. Those methods being applied in projects that have paying
clients may result in the preparation of reports that are not freely disseminated.
2.6 Application of Probabilistic Prediction Methods
Degradation is generally regarded as a stochastic process and the main parameters are in most
cases known. Variations or secondary parameters on the other hand are often not explicitly
and numerically taken into account, but their influence results in a considerable scatter of the
behaviour of the structure.
2.6.1 Markov model for the deterioration
The Markov model assumes deterioration to be a stochastic process governed by random
variables. The structure may be split into a number of components, which deteriorate
randomly. The main parameters of the deterioration are established for each component,
together with the deterioration variables versus time. In Figure B2.1 deterioration using seven
stages for condition rating is shown.
Figure B2.1: Markov deterioration function
Research projects and large engineering projects often rely on models like the Markov model:

Abraham and Wirahadikusumh [1999] in Development of prediction models for sewer
deterioration treat service life of sewer lines:
Due to their low visibility, rehabilitation of sanitary sewers is often neglected until
catastrophic failures occur. Neglecting regular maintenance of these underground utilities
adds to life-cycle costs and liabilities, and in extreme cases, stoppage or reduction of vital
services. Incorporating condition data and deterioration patterns of the city's sewer
system is pivotal for obtaining a realistic assessment of the city's infrastructure. The paper
explores the probability-based Markovian approach for modelling deterioration. This
approach is based on the assumption that since the behaviour of sewer lines (i.e. the rate
of deterioration) is uncertain, the selection of an appropriate repair strategy is also an
uncertain procedure. Probability-based prediction models enable the comparison of the
expected proportions in given condition states with the actual proportions observed in the
field, and in this way possible defects in construction, materials, quality control, etc., can
be identified. Expert opinions from engineers, who have developed the sewer assessment
surveys for the City of Indianapolis, Department of Capital Asset Management (DCAM),
are used for validating the deterioration models developed in the research. More realistic
deterioration models will assist asset managers in improved performance modelling of the
sewer infrastructure and also in determining this infrastructure's rehabilitation costs
based on improved estimates of deterioration.
Leira et al. [1999] in Degradation analysis by statistical methods treat various methods:
Several utilities experience a great future challenge due to deterioration of properties, this
being both buildings and infrastructure:
As service life ends, there will be an increasing need for rehabilitation (i.e. renewal and
maintenance). Most maintenance decisions up to now have been based on the so-called
fire brigade strategy, i.e. to make spot repairs after the failure has occurred, or based on
rules of thumb. In order to enhance maintenance and rehabilitation decision-making, it is
essential to improve our understandings about the deterioration processes. A set of tools
should be developed for decision support. These should be based on, or take into account,
existing knowledge of failures. Statistical methods can be regarded as a way to organise
this knowledge. This paper describes how statistical methods can be applied for
forecasting rehabilitation needs. Examples of trend plots, survival methods, condition
class transition and stochastic model parameter analyses from concrete structures, roads
and water networks are shown. It should be emphasised that there are similarities in the
way various construction outputs can be analysed.
Ansell et al. [2002] report a Markov approach in estimating the service life of bridge
elements in Sweden:
The service life of Swedish road bridges has previously been studied by collecting
inspection reports and other significant information from 353 bridges. A total of 3747
bridge inspection remarks were gathered and the type and cause of damage were stated
and each element was given a condition class.
This information was then inputted into a relational database. ... Deterioration of bridge
elements can be analysed numerically using the Markov chain theory. The deterioration of
a particular structural member must be defined by a number of states, in this case given
by the assessed condition classes. A state vector that gives rise to a new state after
multiplication by a transition probability matrix defines the states of a population of
elements. It is demonstrated how a transition probability matrix can be numerically
determined to describe the deterioration process of a bridge element from data in the
relational database. The numerical method used, is based on an iterative stepwise
combination of the matrix elements until the error between a known deterioration average

curve and a curve given by the Markov chain is minimised. The method is computationally
demanding for small steps but will, with larger steps, quickly converge towards an
approximation close to the transition probability matrix. It is also demonstrated how the
remaining service life of a bridge element can be estimated by studying the variation of
the state vector with bridge age.
Kaempfer et al. [2002] have applied a somewhat simplified deterioration model to sewer
lines:
The condition of sewer pipes and pipe joints are evaluated according to the scale and the
effects of damage. The determined damages are assigned to one of five different damage
classes. The damage classes range from very serious to negligible.
In a second stage, the status of sewer sections is evaluated according to the greatest
damage. These evaluation data are installed in a sewer database according to belonging
functionality and stability variables such as significance of sewer section, hydraulic
capacity, overflow frequency, material, construction year, geometry, size of covering and
traffic load situation. In a third stage the correlation is graphically described between the
network sections and the year of construction and different functionality and stability
variables. The aging curves were derived from the available inspection data and the
construction year for each status class (see Figure B2.2). The average residual service life
of the sewer section is represented by a vertical line between the real age of the sewer
section and the point of intersection with the aging curve of intervention status class. The
different intersections on the horizontal line with the aging curves of different status
classes indicate the ages at which the section is likely to drop to the next class or, going
back in time, came from the previous class.
The example of a small town shows how the acquisition of data and the evaluation of
damaged sewers in a municipality is carried out and illustrates which priorities have to be
established during the maintenance of sewer networks. The model city of 8,000
inhabitants is situated in the middle of Germany. The sewer network comprises around 25
kilometres with 700 individual sewer reaches. In 1998 the total sewer system was optically
inspected. The results of the inspection serve as the basis for a database.


Figure B2.2: Status transition functions for concrete and stoneware sewers in Stadtilm,
Germany
2.6.2 Variables defined as distributions
The probabilistic methods often quantify uncertainties in the form of density distributions.
Some examples are looked at in this section, as this concept could prove to be worth wile for
application in the engineering design methods. For the assessment of service life using
formulas with several variables, distributions can be used instead of plain values.
Enright and Frangopol [1998] studied the deterioration of highway bridges using time-
variant series reliability approach where both load and resistance are time dependent. The
minimum level of safety governs the end of service life. The purpose of the analysis lies in
the development of a reliability-based maintenance strategy:
Experience has demonstrated that highway bridges are vulnerable to damage from

environmental attack, such as alkali-silica reaction, corrosion, and freeze-thaw. To make
rational decisions in a life cycle cost perspective, reliable prediction of the service-life of
deteriorating highway bridges is necessary. To obtain an accurate insight into this
problem, time-variant reliability methods have to be used. The application of these
methods in the performance and safety assessment of deteriorating structures is relatively
new. In this study, the reliability of reinforced concrete highway girder bridges under
aggressive conditions is investigated using a time-variant series system reliability
approach in which both load and resistance are time-dependent. Monte Carlo simulation
is used to find the cumulative-time system failure probability. An existing reinforced
concrete T-beam bridge located near Pueblo, Colorado is investigated. The effects of
various parameters such as variability in dead and live loads, live load occurrence rate,
strength loss rate, degradation initiation time, resistance correlation, and number of
girders under attack on the time-variant bridge reliability are studied. The results can be
used to better predict the service life of deteriorating reinforced concrete bridges, and to
develop optimal lifetime reliability-based maintenance strategies for these bridges.
Lounis et al. [1998] in Further steps towards a quantitative approach to durability design
presents further steps in the development of reliability-based approaches for the durability
design and service life prediction of building components which integrate the
requirements of safety, serviceability and durability:
In General, the load and resistance should be modelled as stochastic processes and the
resulting durability problem is formulated in a time-dependent probabilistic format. Using
the classical reliability approach, the resulting time-dependent reliability problem is
transformed into a time-independent reliability problem through the adoption of an
extreme-value probability distribution for the maximum lifetime load. The resistance
degradation and its variability are included in the model, and the probabilistic design
problem is transformed into a deterministic (or semi-probabilistic) problem using the
first-order second moment theory. This semi-probabilistic integrated approach to
durability design and prediction overcomes the shortcomings of the empirical factorial
approach and the complexities of a fully time-dependent probabilistic method.
An alternative approach using stochastic process theory is proposed to formulate the
durability design problem as a crossing problem for which the probability of failure
within the component lifetime is obtained from the first-passage probability for the
stochastic process. In addition, a service life-based formulation of the durability design
and prediction problems is presented in order to illustrate its equivalence with the perfor-
mance-based formulation.
It is shown that in principle the same probabilistic approaches used for the development
of structural design approaches for safety and serviceability are also applicable for
durability design. The durability design objective is to keep the probability of failure
within a specified time interval (or service life) below a certain threshold value that
depends on the consequences of failure of the component or system. It is expected that in
the near future, further simplifications of the proposed approaches will be made leading
to practical and reliability-based methods to durability design or service life prediction.
These simplified methods will be implemented in the design of durable new structures and
optimal life-cycle maintenance management of existing structures.
The Markov model considers steadily degrading systems, where for each property, during
each time period, a probability of deterioration is defined. This method thus requires
fairly sophisticated inputs in the form of probabilities, which are not easily estimated, as
they cannot be read directly off the real behaviour of the structure in the field. The
Markov model requires an in depth knowledge of the system dealt with or on the other
hand has to rely on significant simplifications.

Fagerlund [1999] treats frost attack using this variant of probabilistic approach:
The main parameters: saturation, critical and effective, frost, are introduced as
distributions. Significant frost damage will not occur until a certain critical moisture level
is transgressed over a sufficiently big portion of the structure. The critical moisture level
is a fracture value which can be compared with the load carrying capacity in structural
design. It is a materials property that seems to be rather uninfluenced by normal
variations in environmental properties, such as number of freeze-thaw cycles and
minimum freezing temperature. The moisture content inside the structure depends on the
outer moisture conditions; the more moist the environment, the larger the inner moisture
content, and the larger the risk of frost damage. The actual moisture content in the
structure can be compared with the actual load in structural design.
The risk of frost damage can be calculated when the frequency functions of the two
parameters, critical moisture content and actual moisture content are known (see
Figure B2.3). Some hypothetical cases are treated in the paper showing that the
probability of frost damage might actually decrease with increasing exposure time in
moderately moist environments, but that it normally increases with increasing exposure
time in continuously moist environments where the structure has no possibility to dry.

Figure B2.3: Distributions of critical and effective saturation in concrete versus time
Flourentzou [1999] uses four typical degradation schemes to quantify the behaviour of an
element. The choice of the respective degradation curve or combination thereof is
somewhat theoretical:
The service life of buildings is an important factor e.g. in life cycle assessment and the
assessment of global costs. Based on experience much information is available regarding
the service life of building elements. However, for existing buildings such information is of
little use as the key question is the probable date of repair/replacement. MEDIC
(Prediction Method of probable Deterioration Scenarios and Refurbishment Investment
Budgets) is developed on the theories of conditional probabilities to help assess the
residual service life and thereby the necessary investments in refurbishment.

When passing from working on general products, like the life span of wooden windows, to
specific objects, for example 29-year old wooden windows, the current condition of the
object must be taken into account. An evaluation of residual service life must for that
reason be closely connected to a good diagnosis method. In the European project EPIQR
(Energy Performance Indoor Environment Quality Retrofit, see also Brandt et al.
[1999]) the deterioration of building materials and components is described by the use of
a classification system with four classes for the qualitative condition (e.g. of a facade or
window, see Figure B2.4). MEDIC calculates the probability to change from one class to
another with time. The prediction is based on the combination of the a priori probability
based on experience from a large number of previous investigations/refurbishments and
the current state of the object under study.

Figure B2.4: Four representative resultant degradation curves
Dotreppe [1999] uses a two stage degradation scheme for modelling the behaviour of
reinforced concrete bridge decks as shown in Figure B2.5:
1. Initiation and then
2. Propagation (depassivation)

Composite steel-concrete constructions are presently widely used, and certainly in the
field of composite bridges where they appear quite competitive. Most of the structural
problems related to this type of construction are presently solved, concerning particularly
the design of the steel girders. Nowadays particularly in the northern temperate zone
where de-icing salts and freeze thaw are a problem studies are focused on the durability
of the concrete slab, which controls the performance of these bridges.
The model commonly accepted for the description of the corrosion process in a reinforced
concrete element is presented. The evolution regarding the problem of the influence of the
crack width on the durability of concrete is discussed. The factors leading to cracking of
the concrete slab are examined, with special attention to thermal and autogenous
shrinkage involving early cracking, and the results of a practical example are presented.
The most essential requirements regarding durability are mentioned. Concerning
reinforcement of the slab the classical solution consists in using standard reinforcing
steel. However, as the slab is cracked, durability will be controlled by the corrosion
development, which leads to uncertainty regarding service life. Prestressing can ensure a
satisfactory performance during a sufficiently long period. Several parameters have to be
assessed carefully, such as the type of prestressing and the amount of prestress to be
introduced in the slab.


Figure B2.5: Two stages of the degradation scheme used by Dotreppe
Siemes [1999] presents a probabilistic method of predicting the behaviour of concrete
structures. He defines four stages relevant to service life:
1. Depassivation,
2. Cracking,
3. Spaulling and
4. Collapse.
For chloride-induced corrosion, an equation giving the required concrete cover as a
function of the chloride concentration has been derived for a chosen time of service. The
variables are introduced as distributions:
Due to the high construction costs and the social importance the durability demands for
large infrastructures is becoming more and more important. Service life requirements of
100 years or even more are quite common.
For the bored reinforced concrete tunnel under the Western Scheldt in the Netherlands the
requirement was a service life of at least 100 years. No method had been specified to
prove this service life. Since the concrete codes are only based on deem-to-satisfy rules for
the durability, without any specification for the service life, it was not possible to base the
design on existing codes. The service life design has been made on the basis of the
methodology that has been developed in a research project of the European Community.
This project with the name DuraCrete has further improved the existing reliability and
performance based structural design method by introducing the modelling of degradations
and environmental actions. It is believed that the service life design of the Western Scheldt
Tunnel is the first project were the DuraCrete approach has been applied in practice.
In Siemes [2002] a further refined five stage model is shown for concrete from its initial
state to collapse, see Figure B2.6:


Figure B2.6: Adverse events during corrosion of the reinforcement to collapse
Lair et al. [1999] and [2001] predict the service life using two approaches. On the one
hand, they perform a Failure Mode and Effects Analyses (FMEA). This method allows the
identification of the failure modes, i.e. the failure to fulfil one of the functions for which
the building part was designed. On the other hand, they collect service life information
form all available sources (expert opinion, statistical studies, modelling, artificial and
natural ageing, etc.), assess their quality, and, by means of a data fusion procedure, give a
probability of failure, together with optimistic and pessimistic values of this probability
(upper and lower bounds). These two approaches give a band of service life as shown in
Figure B2.7.
In the past decades much effort has been put into the improvement of the durability of
concrete structures. This has resulted in a reasonable understanding of the main
degradation processes or experience with measures to prevent degradation. The results
of this effort can be found in the present concrete codes and in manuals on durability
design. The design rules are in general presented as deem-to-satisfy rules. If the rules are
followed it may be assumed that the structure is durable. The present approach does not
give direct insight into the service life, the necessary maintenance or the probability of
premature failure.
Further it is clear that a lack of durability can have an influence on the structural
behaviour. The direct relationship between durability and safety and serviceability of
concrete structures has however not been made in the concrete codes. In the Brite-
EuRam project DuraCrete the durability design has been developed into a service life
design based on performance and on reliability for reinforced concrete structures. This
offers the possibility to present the design on the same level as the structural design, also
based on performances and reliability. The structural and service life design can even be
integrated. The DuraCrete approach can be modified for the service life design of other
structural materials and building materials.


Figure B2.7: Range of service life defined by the two approaches used by Lair et al.
Lair et al. [1999]: Assessing the service life of building products is relevant for all building
actors (insurers, manufacturers, building owners and architects). Indeed, the knowledge of
building product service lives leads to a reduction of maintenance costs and environmental
impact, and an improvement of safety. This paper deals with a methodological approach for
durability assessment. The major steps are:
Research of available durability data and their organisation in a graph structure
followed by the assessment of belief and plausibility distribution of service life.
A Failure Mode and Effects Analysis, including a structural and a functional
analysis in order to search all potential failures (weathering factors, product
design and setting up).
The proposed method is a multi-model and multi-scale approach; multi-model in order to
adjust the model with our knowledge and our aim (modelling real life of building, but not
a too complex and unusable model), multi-scale to take into account the links between the
three geometric scales materials/products/building. Finally, it gives
(1) Distribution of nominal service life, for normal weathering processes, with
corresponding belief and plausibility degrees,
(2) Details on the design and setting up problems, on exceptional weathering
phenomena, which could lead to a shorter service life.
Faber and Gehlen [2002] describe the probabilistic concept for the assessment of the
durability of existing reinforced concrete structures with special emphasis on the spatial
variability of the parameter dominating deterioration. They use the fault tree and decision
tree concept and four levels of damage (see also [Siemes 1999]). The method is illustrated
on the problem of chloride diffusion where even the chloride concentration on the surface
is treated probabilistic.
2.6.3 Practical examples of probabilistic methods
From literature, a few examples are extracted and commented upon in the following
paragraphs, showing the main lines of application.

Selected examples
In practical applications of the probabilistic methods, the main parameters have to be
identified and often, the theoretical models are modified and simplified, most often reducing
the parameters included in the model to a minimum:
Breitenbchner et al. [1999] present the design for service life of the Western Scheldt
tunnel, the governing factor being the concrete cover. Assuming the chloride attack being
the main parameter for degradation the required cover was derived at. Inputs for this
calculation such as chloride concentrations, diffusion factors, etc. were defined as
stochastic variables (density distributions, see Table B2.1).
As a limiting property the reliability index was chosen, for onset of corrosion 1.5-1.8 up,
for onset of spalling 2.0-3.0 up to collapse 3.6-3.8. :
Due to the high construction costs and the social importance the durability demands for
large infrastructure are becoming more and more important. Service life requirements of
100 year or even more are usual. For the bored reinforced concrete tunnel under the
Western Scheldt in the Netherlands the requirement was a service life of at least 100
years. No method has been specified to prove this service life. Since the concrete codes
are only based on deem-to-satisfy rules for the durability, without any specification to the
service life, it was not possible to base the design on existing codes. The service life design
has been made on the basis of the methodology that has been developed in a research
project for the European Community. This project with the name DuraCrete has further
improved the existing reliability and performance based structural design method by
introducing the modelling of degradations and environmental actions. It is believed that
the service life design of the Western Scheldt Tunnel is the first project were the
DuraCrete approach has been applied in practice.
Table B2.1: Input distributions used in the design of Scheldt Tunnel
by [Breitenbchner et al. 1999]


Helland [1999] shows how the remaining service life of existing concrete structures was
assessed based on the chloride ingress and taking into account a decreasing chloride
diffusion over time (see Figure B2.8):
After reviewing the present technology on performance-related durability criteria, CEN
TC-104 concluded for the coming EN 206 and ENV (execution standard) that none of
these were sufficiently mature to be incorporated in a technical standard. For this reason,
all the clauses in these two standards will be of the traditional deemed to satisfy type. A
technical standard shall not deal with responsibilities. However, they will normally be the
main references for contractual agreements. Hence the fulfilment of the technical
requirements will heavily influence the producers liability. The present deemed to
satisfy requirements define the quality of the product purchased by the owner.
Future performance-related requirements have to be suited both for the producer and the
client as a reference to split the risk of liability for possible future shortcomings of the
structure. This split must be acceptable for both parties, and the final evaluation of
conformity should be concluded as early as possible after the construction. The paper
describes a scenario where the evaluation of conformity might be done within a fairly
short period concerning a structures ability to withstand the ingress of chlorides in its
specific environment.

Figure B2.8: Service life solutions using different materials
Wisemann [1999] also gives an example of structural service life prediction using
distributions for the parameters to assess durability of designs using different materials:

Parking garage configurations in Canada present one of the most adverse climates for
reinforced concrete. The historic excessive use of de-icing salts on North American
roadways has, by exposing the structural elements to a saline solution at a heightened
ambient temperature, enhanced the rate of deterioration in parking structures. Various
rehabilitation options may be considered for different circumstances, from simple
stripping and repair of affected areas, to the chloride extraction or re-alkalinisation of
structural elements, and ultimately to demolition and reconstruction. The emergence of
"innovative" materials and methods promising extended or altered in-service performance
has left designers without a clear view of the relative benefits of the more traditional
approaches.
This paper examines the degradation models available for service life prediction of

parking structures, in particular methods to evaluate systems using innovative materials
(for results of service life prediction see Figure B2.8). This paper also presents the
projected service life extensions provided by design, rehabilitation and material options
and evaluates the life-cycle economics of their application to a specific parking garage
scenario. The assessment considers the total life-cycle costs, including capital, operations
and maintenance costs, re-capitalisation as well as the projected rehabilitation costs for
each scenario.
Teply [1999] deals with practically all variables influencing the service life of a reinforced
concrete beam (variations in beam properties and degradation (corrosion) due to
carbonation and chloride attack):
For a specific RC beam, the depassivation of reinforcement is assessed and a consequent
corrosion process in time is evaluated using numerical models. The cross-section of the
beam is analysed using the layer approach. The efficient statistical modelling of the
carbonation process and the consequent corrosion of reinforcement is updated utilising
the in-situ measurements. The influence of deterioration on failure probability is assessed
and sensitivity analysis is performed.
Hong [2000] considers the degradation of reinforced concrete structures due to both
aggressive environment and in-service loading for service life prediction: Aggressive
environment and in-service loading can cause the resistance degradation of existing
reinforced concrete structures. They must be considered for the safety evaluation and
service-life prediction of deteriorating structures. This paper presents an integrated
approach for time-dependent system reliability analysis considering the stochastic nature
of load processes, uncertainties in strength, degradation initiation time, and strength
degradation mode. The approach takes into account the partial correlation among the
failures of structural elements, which arises from the fact that elements of a structural
system are subjected to the same load processes and/or depend on some common basic
random variables. The approach is efficient, since it does not require simulation. Analysis
results obtained by using the proposed approach indicate that the reliability of series
systems is relatively insensitive to the correlation between the failure of structural
elements. However, the reliability of parallel system is highly sensitive to the correlation.
The use of the time-dependent reliability obtained by neglecting possible correlation as a
safety measure, therefore, should be avoided.
Further applications
The topic of service life of concrete structures namely depending on the ingress of chlorides is
widely covered in the papers of 8DBMC and 9 DBMC (see references).
2.7 Developments of the Factorial Method Towards Probabilistic Methods
The momentum for of developing more realistic models based on the factorial method is
gained on the one hand from the ease of understanding and on the other hand from the need
for a more satisfying result of the service life prediction.
From this background Moser [1999] uses the definitions of the factorial method, but
employs variables with density-functions instead of plain figures. The variables are based
on data given by the manufacturer, by tests, by experience, by expert opinion, and others.
Reliable data from expert opinion can be derived by application of the so-called recursive
Delphi method. Experts are required to estimate the minimum (say 5%), the average
(50%) and the maximum (say 95%) fractals of the variable considered. These estimates
are fitted into density distributions of any kind such as: standard, symmetric, asymmetric,
custom-defined, or others (or even deterministic, here for design level) see Figure B2.9.

Figure B2.9: Input variables defined by various types of distributions
The result of the computation using existing simple software such as VaP [1996] is a
density function of the expected service life of a similar lot of elements (see Figure
B2.10). These resulting distributions indicate for e.g. the average or mean service life,
but fractiles such as the first 5% or 70% of the elements at the end of their service life
can also be read off the distribution curve at once.
These functions can be processed through to for e.g. a replacement cost versus time
function of a building or other works. The experts estimates are reconsidered after
calculation of the resulting service lives or replacement demand. The necessary fine-
tuning based on the experts experience leads to a realistic model and powerful
engineering tool.
This method is proposed for application in the current draft of ISO 15686-4 Service
Life prediction data requirements.


Fig. 5: Density distributions for the windows in the four faces

Figure B2.10: Resultant service life distributions for four sides of a building.
Aarseth and Hovde [1999] discuss a similar principle in broader terms based on inputs in
meetings in Gvle 1998. The distribution function is restricted to the Erlang-distribution
and based on estimates of the 1% and 99% fractals, see Figure B2.11. (These fractals have
according to experience of the author proved to be rather difficult to assess for experts.)
Furthermore, the equation in ISO 15686 is modified from a multiplication of factors to a
summation of delta years starting at the reference service life. It is doubtful, whether this
principle adequately covers the real variation of the individual factors:
Figure B2.11: Erlang function showing estimated values
The ISO/CD 15686-1 Service life planning describes a deterministic method that allows
an estimate of the service life to be made for a particular component or assembly in
specific conditions. In real life the service life has a big scatter and should be treated
as a stochastic quantity. In this paper we introduce the step-by-step principle as a
stochastic approach to the ISO factor method. The step-by-step principle provides a
more systematic approach to the estimating process and makes possible a stochastic
handling of the factors. For each factor three estimates shall be made, the minimum,
maximum and the most expected value of the factor. In this way the uncertainty is
identified and estimated for each factor. The most uncertain factors should, if possible, be

divided into sub-elements and more information should be gathered in order to reduce the
uncertainty. In this stochastic approach the factors are treated as elements that finally
are summed up.

Also unlike the proposed ISO factor method, the estimates are expressed in years, instead
of in numbers close to 1. These changes facilitate seeing the consequences of the estimates
during the estimating process. After a statistical calculation the estimated service life is
expressed as three figures, the expected value plus/minus one standard deviation.
Two examples are shown where the service life is estimated for a window: first in a
deterministic way according to the proposed ISO factor method, then in a stochastic way
according to the proposed step-by-step principle, see Figure B2.12.

Figure B2.12: Example service life calculation

This method, although somewhat similar to the one proposed by Moser [1999], deviates
substantially from ISO 15686. The restriction to a set form of density distribution and the
different basic equation are further drawbacks of this method.

2.8 Other Concepts
Some authors have used other than the above concepts for more sophisticated investigations.
Estes and Frangopol [1999] have set up a model for bridges as a series-parallel
combination of failure modes. Using time-dependent deterioration models and live load
models, lifetime repair can be optimised. The authors state however, that considerable
research effort is required to develop accurate input data:
As reliability based methods gain increased acceptance, there is greater opportunity to
use scarce resources more efficiently while maintaining a prescribed level of reliability of
a structure throughout its service life. The goal is to provide management decisions that
will balance lifetime system reliability and expected life-cycle cost in an optimal manner.
This study proposes a system reliability approach for optimising the lifetime repair
strategy for highway bridges. The approach is demonstrated using an existing Colorado
State highway bridge. The bridge is modelled as a series-parallel combination of failure
modes, and the reliability of the overall bridge system is computed using time-dependent
deterioration models and live load models. Based on an established repair criterion,
available repair options, repair costs, and updating, the optimum lifetime repair strategy
is developed. The sensitivity of the optimum strategy to changes in various problem
parameters including the prescribed service life, system failure criterion, and net discount
rate is studied. Finally, the conclusions reveal that the proposed approach demonstrates
real potential for practical applications, needs frequent updates through inspection, and
requires considerable research effort to develop accurate input data.
Raj [2000] presents the framework of a method, which partitions the systems into sub-
systems linked by multidimensional variables. System analysis is done in the linking
variable space (LVS) yielding detail information on how the sub-fields influence the
overall variability of the service life. The example works on a light bulb and serves to
illustrate how design regime is created in the LVS by overlaying the results from
engineering design and materials science sub-systems.
Liang et al. [2001] use a multiple layer fuzzy method model for the assessment of the
service life of bridges. Thereby the deterioration is modelled using the fuzzy theory and
the end of the service life is defined by the minimum safety index:
The principal objective of this paper is to set up an evaluation multiple layer fuzzy method
model for evaluating the damage state of existing reinforced concrete bridges. After
establishing the detailed evaluation supportability and anti-seismic ability of existing
bridges items, the fuzzy mathematical theory is adopted to evaluate the damage state of
any member of an existing bridge. The damage state of any member of an existing bridge
is systematically and completely composed as an evaluation model of multiple layer fuzzy
mathematics. The evaluated results may be used for the safety index and reference index
for repair or reinforcement in existing bridges. In addition, the evaluated results may also
be used as a design reference for service life in future bridges. The evaluated model may
be divided into the degrees of grades I, II, III, IV, and V, which are described as non-
damage, light damage, moderate damage, sever damage, and unfit for service,
respectively. Using the proposed model, the Hueytong bridge, JzyhChyang Bridge, Ay
gwo west road viaduct, and old HwanNan viaduct in Taipei was chosen for evaluation.
The results of the present investigation indicate that the order of repair and reinforcement
in the Aygwo west road viaduct, HueyTong bridge, old HwanNan viaduct, and Jzyh
Chyang bridge. Thus, the multiple layer fuzzy method appears to be of advantage for
evaluating the damage of existing reinforced concrete bridges.

Vu and Stewart [2002] use a reliability model which includes the spatial and random
variability of both chloride diffusion, concrete cover and concrete strength:
In this paper, the service life of structures exposed to aggressive environments is
measured by the probability of cracking and spalling of concrete cover. The time to
corrosion cracking/spalling is experimentally investigated from accelerated corrosion
testing of RC slabs with the emphasis on trying to quantify the relationship between
concrete quality (w/c ratio; or strength), concrete cover, crack propagation and time. The
probability of cracking and spalling of concrete cover is calculated by using a structural
deterioration life-cycle reliability model. The reliability model includes the random
spatial variability of concrete compressive strength, concrete cover and the surface
chloride concentration. The reliability model also includes a stochastic deterioration
model that considers the random variability of chloride diffusion, threshold chloride
concentration and corrosion rates. Therefore, the reliability model can be used to predict
the proportion of a concrete surface likely to spaull for any reference period (see
Figure B2.13). This is a useful criterion for predicting the service life of RC structures.
Figure B2.13: Input data and resulting effects of concrete cover
and w/c ratio on concrete cracking and spalling
Some of these concepts are even more sophisticated and more elaborate than probabilistic
methods. The concepts are, at the present time, only suitable for research or specific use in
singular and unique projects, the latter case that would warrant the cost of undertaking
elaborate investigations.

3. PROPOSED ENGINEERING DESIGN
METHODS

3.1 Basic Requirements for Engineering Design Methods
As far as more common engineering designs are concerned, only a few papers are available,
but a general engineering design method as such was found. The methods under section 2.5
above, however, are deemed to satisfy the main requirements for engineering design methods,
as they are:
1. The method is (for engineers) easy to understand,
2. The method is easy and swift to apply,
3. The results are (for the given simplifications) realistic.
Attempts to improve the factorial method seem to be the most promising path leading to
engineering design methods. Introducing stochastic data into the factor method according to
ISO 15686-1, or other relations defining service life, by defining the factors as density
distributions, could well prove to produce powerful engineering design methods.
3.2 Proposed Principle
The general principle of the proposed engineering design methods can be defined as follows:
1. Establish an equation, describing the service life of the building or component, taking into
account all identified relevant parameters. For standard cases, the equation of the factorial
method as set up in ISO 15686-1 can be used. In other cases, modified or tailor-made
equations have to be set up.
2. Gain data on the parameters of the above equation from experience, from expert opinion,
etc. Set up any kind of probability density distribution for the individual parameters
identified.
3. Perform the service life calculation.
4. Review the plausibility of the results using experts opinion, and when deemed necessary,
modify the input data accordingly, i.e. go into greater detail in setting up the parameters
for the variables dominating the service life.
3.3 Examples of Engineering Design Methods
Moser and Edvardsen have published a paper titled Engineering Design Methods for Service
Life Prediction at the 9DBMC [2002] demonstrating the application of the engineering
design method to three different examples. The following text is an extract of this paper.
This method, applied plainly as set up in the code, yields one single value for the average
service life. A customer however, is not only interested in the average value; he has to know

when substantial renovations or replacements can be expected. The latter is usually the case
long before the average service life is reached.
3.3.1 Data acquisition by the recursive Delphi method
In many cases, data are not available for ready use in the form of values for the main factors
of influence defined in the equation for service life, let alone in the form of distributions. A
very valid method is the so-called (recursive) Delphi method (see Figure B3.1). (The method
has been used for data acquisition as far back as the 1980s in the field of (industrial) risk
engineering.)
1. In a first step, a panel of experts is called together and asked for their professional opinion
on the distributions of the different factors, their type of distribution (normal, log-normal,
Gumbel, etc.), their mean values, standard deviations.
Usually, it is easier to define fractiles based on experience and professional judgement,
say 5 or 10%, and mean values and 90 or 95%. Experts can quite well define these values,
when asked precisely.
2. The second step involves the service life calculation using the expert panels input. The
distributions are used instead of plain factors in the mathematical formulations for service
life.
3. The third step is a thorough discussion of the results and of the dominating parameters.
Sensitivity analysis has proved to be an important tool at this stage. Very often, as a
consequence of this appraisal, the data or the models have to be adjusted to yield results
judged reasonable in those areas of the problem where the experts have sufficient practical
experience. After this fine-tuning of the model and the density distributions of the factors,
the general problem can be tackled successfully.

Model Parameters Results and
and Model Input Sensitivity Analysis

Panel of Experts
Figure B3.1: Recursive Delphi Method
3.3.2 Application of engineering design methods
The general engineering design method (EDM), at this stage, is defined as:
Any simple mathematical relation (as simple as possible, but not too simple) worked on,
using distributions of any kind for the individual factors in the relation.

This procedure yields as result distributions for the expected service lives, information, which
can easily be understood and interpreted by the decision-makers.
The following examples show three variations of the engineering design method EDM:
1. The first example uses all seven factors of ISO 15686-1, 2000 under the assumption, that
the information for defining the respective distributions is readily available.
2. The second example is working on limited information only. The equation has to be
modified, and the respective distributions are set up indirectly, partially from information
on the resultant differences of service life.
3. The third example bases on a completely different equation, which is established using
common engineering sense. It is normalised using an average result calculated on the basis
of an equation based on an error-function.
3.3.3 Example 1: Engineering design method based on equation of factorial method
This example demonstrates the basic procedure with the following full equation (1). All
factors are applied as indicated, using four different distributions in order to demonstrate the
ease of application of this expanded factorial method. The example is based on the worked
example for softwood windows given in ISO/CD 15686-1 [1997] but the factors are indexed
as in the edition 2000 of the code:
(1)
G F E D C B A
f f f f f f f RSLC PSLDC =
PSLDC: is the predicted service life distribution of the component
based on the reference service life RSLC.
The factorial indices are for:
A: quality of the component,
B: design level,
C: work execution level,
D: indoor environment,
E: outdoor environment,
F: in-use condition,
G: maintenance level.
Estimated service lives for the windows in all four faces
The basis of the numerical example is a squared building of a length of 50 m, a width of 25 m
and a height of 30 m. The long sides are facing due south and north respectively. The
windows of the four faades of the building are in the example treated separately. The
assumed relevant conditions for all factors and faces are shown in Table B3.1. From this
Table, the factors for the three fractiles 5%, 50% and 95% are defined in the sense of the
Delphi method, in this case based on the factors and their description given in
ISO/CD 15686-1:2000.


Table B3.1: Estimated fractile values of factors

Factor

Face

Relevant conditions
Factors for the
fractiles
5% / 50% / 95%
f
A
Quality of component all General variations of components 1.2 / 1.5 / 1.8
f
B
Design level all Good, identical value 1.2
f
C
Work execution level all General variation,
but insufficient quality repaired
1.0 / 1.2 / 1.5
f
D
Indoor environment S
W
N
E
Occasional risk of condensation
Medium risk of condensation
High risk of condensation
Medium risk of condensation
0.9 / 1.0 / 1.2
0.8 / 0.9 / 1.1
0.7 / 0.8 / 0.95
0.8 / 0.9 / 1.1
f
E
Outdoor environment S
W
N
E
Occasional cycling dry / damp
Regular cycling dry / damp
Sheltered from rain
Occasional cycling dry / damp
0.8 / 1.0 / 1.3
0.6 / 0.8 / 1.0
1.0 / 1.2 / 1.5
0.8 / 1.0 / 1.3
f
F
In use conditions S
W
N
E
Occasional access by children
1
)
Regular access by children
1
)
Occ. / reg. access by children
1
)
Occasional access by children
1
)
0.8 / 1.0 / 1.2
0.6 / 0.8 / 1.0
0.7 / 0.9 / 1.1
0.8 / 1.0 / 1.2
f
G
Maintenance level all Painted on judgement of caretaker 0.9 / 1.0 / 1.1
Note:
1
) according to example in ISO/CD 15868-1 [1997],
other descriptions for wear and tear may appear more realistic.
The values for the fractiles given in the Table B3.1 are approximated by the density functions
given in Table B3.2 for the ease of processing. The functions chosen represent those generally
used: deterministic, normal, lognormal and Gumbel (extreme-value) distributions. The
program used for the data processing, VaP 1.6 [1996], supports 11 types of distributions and
user defined functions. It only requires 2.2 MB of disc-space in the expanded state.
The factors for C reflect the fact that a quality of workmanship usually is such, that all parts
not being sufficient are upgraded to meet the requirements, whereas those exceeding the
requirements are naturally left at their higher level. This procedure leads typically to
asymmetric distributions (in this example approximated using an extreme value Gumbel
distribution) with very few components below the satisfactory level of 1.0 and a fairly wide
spread upper area of the distribution.
The variables m and s are the first and second moments of the respective distributions (see
VaP 1.6 1996].


Table B3.2: Predicted service life distribution of the components (PSLDC)
Face
Factor

Type of
Distribution
South
m / s
West
m / s
North
m / s
East
m / s
RSLC
f
A

f
B

f
C

f
D

f
E

f
F

f
G

Deterministic
Normal
Deterministic
Gumbel
Lognormal
lognormal
normal
normal
25 years
1.5 / 0.185
1.20
1.25 / 0.10
1.05 / 0.10
1.05 / 0.20
1.0 / 0.12
1.0 / 0.06
25 years
1.5 / 0.185
1.20
1.25 / 0.10
0.95 / 0.10
0.80 / 0.20
0.80 / 0.12
1.0 / 0.06
25 years
1.5 / 0.185
1.20
1.25 / 0.10
0.80 / 0.10
1.25 / 0.20
0.90 / 0.12
1.0 / 0.06
25 years
1.5 / 0.185
1.20
1.25 / 0.10
0.95 / 0.10
1.05 / 0.20
1.0 / 0.12
1.0 / 0.06
PSLDC (years) Lognormal
1
) 62.0 / 20.4 34.2 / 11.8 50.6 / 14.8 56.1 / 18.6
Note:
1
) close fit
The results were calculated by direct methods using VaP 1.6 [1996] and are shown on the last
line of Table B3.2. The average results of two runs of a Monte Carlo simulation match the
mathematically calculated results by a maximum difference on the average value of 0.1 years.
These simulations yielded detail results as graphically shown for each facade as in Figure
B3.2. Dividing the relative densities shown on the vertical axis through the number of runs, in
this case by 100000, derives at the absolute densities.
Comparison of the four faades
The results for the estimated service lives of the four faades in Figure B3.2 are different with
respect to several aspects. Firstly one notices the different widths of the distributions, in
accordance to the values (second moments) in Figure B3.2). The spread is largest for the south
face and narrowest for the west face. Some of this effect is relative: Due to the higher average
value, the same relative spread is larger in years.
The west face shows the shortest service life, as expected, for a northern temperate location,
mainly due to the unfavourable outdoor climate and the in-use conditions. The effect of the
higher risk of condensation, assumed for the north face indoor climate, is offset by the more
favourable outdoor climate. The main difference originates from the in-use conditions. Both
effects combined yield some 15% less estimated service life.


Note: Densities are the result of 10
5
runs of a Monte Carlo simulation
Fig. 5: Density distributions for the windows in the four faces
Figure B3.2: Distributions of predicted service lives PSLDC for all four facades
Financial demand
For the planning of the maintenance funds, the functions for the service lives of the similar
building parts can be superimposed. In general, this has to be done for all parts of a building
considered. For the superposition, costs have to be allocated to the different groups of
building parts.
In this example, the superposition of all window areas to be replaced is executed only, in
order to be able to show typical results. (It is assumed for this purpose, that the windows cover
40% of the area of the respective faades.)


0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0 20 40 60 80 100
service life [years]
w
i
n
d
o
w

a
r
e
a

[
m
2
]
Total area of windows
(=integral of function)
A = 1800 m
2
120
Figure B3.3: Financial demand
The superposition yields an asymmetric function having a steep increase up to a peak demand
of replacements of 48 m
2
/year after 37 years (see Figure B3.3). Then the demand decreases at
a gentle slope down to 10 m
2
/year after 70 years.
In a next step, the same service life functions can again be applied to the replaced windows,
and the results of the multiple replacements are summed up, leading to a fairly constant
replacement function. These steps are omitted here for clarity.
In general, the financial demand for similar parts tends to merge into a one-peak function. The
superposition of the functions of all different parts of a building is more likely to result in
several peaks or even a relatively steady demand over the lifetime of the building considered,
starting at a certain age of the building.
3.3.4 Example 2: Engineering design method based on modified equation method and
scarce data
This example deals with service life of fibre cement slates used as wall cladding. The input
data is fairly scarce, far from being complete and not directly suited for application in service
life calculation. The basis of this calculation is the factorial method as set up in ISO 15686-
1:2000, modified to suit this specific case. The example shows that interpretation of available
limited data can nevertheless lead to a coherent and satisfactory service life prediction.
Available data
A manufacturer supplied data from his experience as follows:
The quality of production of the slates can be derived from the bending strength, assumed
to be characteristic value for the mechanical strength. The mean value m lies 20% above
the strength required and the standard deviation s is very small, normalised: v = m/s =
0.015.
The design level is such, that out of all designs some 10% to 15% are considered to be
inadequate.
The quality of work execution is at a fairly high level and some 5% are judged to be
inadequate.

Outdoor environment under normal conditions results in the modifications of service life
shown in Table B3.3.
Table B3.3: Example 2: Service lives and equivalent factors for different expositions
Exposition East North West South
Difference in service life 0 years - 2 to -3 years -7 to -10 years - 5 to -7 years
Equivalent factor 1.0 0.95 0.85 0.90

The equivalent factors above have been estimated knowing that the expected service life
lies somewhere between 50 and 60 years.
In-use conditions do not have to be considered, as only direct mechanical destruction can
be a result of use. These cases are however not of statistical significance.
Maintenance level does not have to be considered, as basically no maintenance is required.
Flat sheets are installed and do not receive any, or minimal maintenance only, throughout
their entire service life.
Input data
For the calculation of service life, the following equation is set up according to the factorial
method:
(2)
E C B A
f f f f RSLC PSLDC =
From the above inputs, the following mean factors and standard deviations, or second
moments respectively, are derived at:
The density distribution of the factor for the quality of the component is, on the basis of
the mechanical strength, set to a mean value of f
A
= 1.2. The standard deviation is, on the
basis of the normalised standard deviation from production, set to s
A
= 0.02.
The density distribution of the factor for the design level is set to a mean of f
B
= 1.1 with a
standard deviation of s
B
= 0.12, resulting in some 13% of the cases being below 1.0, i.e.
exhibiting insufficient quality.
The density distribution of the factor for the work execution level is from experience
asymmetric and a lognormal distribution is defined by a mean value (first moment) of f
C
=
1.1 and a second moment of s
C
= 0.06, resulting in some 5% of the cases being below 1.0,
i.e. insufficient.
The density distribution of the factors for the outdoor environment are set to the mean
values f
E
in Tab. 3 above. The standard deviation is, for the sake of simplification, set to
an estimated s
E
= 0.1 for all four expositions.

Calculation of service life
The calculation using VaP [1996] yields the results for the predicted service life PSLC as
shown in Table B3.4, basing on a RSLC of 50 years (deterministic value, for the purpose of
this example):

Table B3.4: Service lives and equivalent factors for different expositions
Exposition East North West South
PSLC: mean value [years]
m: standard deviation [years]
72. 6
11.5
69.0
11.2
61.7
10.5
65.3
10.9
SLC PSLC - m (16% of the slates damaged) 61 58 51 54

The distributions for the service lives of two facades are shown in Figure B3.4.
East facade [years] West facade [years]
Note: Densities are the result of 10
5
Figure B3.4: Distributions of predicted service lives (PSLDC) for East and West facades
Under the assumption, that damage to about one out of every six of the slates requires
replacement of the entire respective cladding (i.e. SLC for a fractile of about 16% of damaged
slates), the service life of the four facades is shown in the above table, varying from 61 to 51
years.
Discussion of results
The differences in service life given from experience can be found in the results of the
prediction. For the purpose of investment planning, the 16% fractile (or any other fractile
deemed to be reasonable) seems to be a good indication of the point in time of replacement.
This example shows that even on the basis of relatively scarce input, quite sensible service life
prediction are possible.

3.3.5 Example 3: Engineering design method based on simplification of the probabilistic
method
This example demonstrates, that service life prediction using a relatively plain formula,
different to the one in ISO 15686, 2000, can be done in the same way, again by introducing
densities for the factors involved.
This example deals with chloride ingress into concrete. It is based on a paper using the
probabilistic approach on the basis of error-functions [Edvardsen and Mohr 2000]. In the
paper, the authors compare the results of deterministic and of probabilistic calculations of
service life of reinforced concrete structures in two climates (+10C and +30C). The
necessary concrete cover for a service life of 50 years is determined. A chloride content of 0.1
% chloride by mass of concrete at the reinforcement is assumed to define the end of service
life.
Procedure for simplified equation
In terms of an engineering design method, the following procedure is used:
1. The mean value of the chloride ingress depth is calculated as x = 34 mm, using the
equation for diffusion for a time of 50 years:
|
|
.
|
\
|
(
(
=
t D
x
c c c t x c
s s
2
erf 1 ) ( ) , (
0
(3)
where: c: concentration on chlorides, c
s
: concentration at the outer face and c
0
: initial
concentration in the concrete. The front of the ingress is defined by the critical value c =
c
crit
= 0.1 % of mass of concrete.
2. A simplified diffusion equation is set up for the depth x of chloride ingress. By this, all
constants in the equation of diffusion are rounded up into one single constant K:
( ) D c c c K x
crit s 0
, (4)
3. The constant K is calculated by solving the equation for the mean value x.
Using the mean value of 34 mm this results in K = 3810
3
[s
0.5
/ wt.-%].
Table B3.5: Example 3 - Values used for the diffusion calculations
Variable Distribution Mean value Standard Deviation
Surface chloride concentration
Critical chloride content
Initial chloride content
Eff. chloride diffusion coefficient (10C)
Eff. chloride diffusion coefficient (30C)
c
s

c
crit

c
0

D
1
D
2

Lognormal
Normal
Normal
Normal
Normal
1.0 [wt-%]
0.1 [wt-%]
0.01 [wt-%]
1.010
-12
[m
2
/s]
4.010
-12
[m
2
/s]
0.3 [wt-%]
0.025 [wt-%]
0.002 [wt-%]
0.110
-12
[m
2
/s]
0.410
-12
[m
2
/s]

Solving equation using distributions
The equation reads now as
( ) [ mass /% s 10 38
0
3
D c c c x
crit s
= ] (4)
Solving this equation using the same density distributions as used in the detailed probabilistic
solution (Table B3.5), yields results as shown in Figure B3.5. The slight skewness of the
resultant density distribution is neglected for indicating standard deviations.

Fractile value required
The probability of exceeding the critical content c
crit
is set to 10% in Edvardsen and Mohr
[2000] Assuming a normal distribution, the value of the fractile of 90% is derived at by
adding = 1.28 standard deviations to the mean: s x x + =
90
. These results are also shown
in Figure B3.5 and are compared to the exact values of the original paper. The mean values
are identical as well as the standard deviation for Diffusion constant D
1
. For Diffusion
constant D
2
, the fractile value of this prediction exceeds the exact value by some 5%.
This accuracy is deemed to satisfy the needs of the customer, bearing in mind, that all input
values, although being set up as distributions, are still never perfectly exact.

Fractile of 10% exceedance
Diffusion
constant
Mean
value
Standard
deviation
Eng. Design
Method
Edvardsen and
Mohr 2000
D
1
D
2

34 mm
68 mm
12 mm
23 mm
49 mm
97 mm
49 mm
91 mm

x [mm] for D
1
x [mm] for D
2
Note: Densities shown are the results of 10
5
Figure B3.5: Engineering design method: density distributions for the depth of chloride
ingress

4. CONCLUSION AND OUTLOOK

4.1 Proposed Engineering Design Methods
After a review of the recent literature, an engineering design method (EDM) is proposed for
the calculation of the service life of buildings or components.
In order to calculate the service life, an equation containing the relevant factors at their
relevant levels has to be set up first. This equation may be derived from ISO 15686-1 or other
sources. It can be made up to specifically suit the problem to be solved.
In the equation for service life, density distributions instead of simple factors are used, thereby
greatly improving the information content and the relevance of the results. The intellectual,
mathematical and time wise input compared to the quite often elaborate original equations or
to a thorough stochastic design, is greatly reduced.
As opposed to using simple numerical factors in the original factor method, this approach
incorporates the use of probability density functions for factors as well as for the service life
of individual components to arrive at an overall estimate of a building systems service life.
These are established using reliable and understandable engineering techniques applied in a
systematic and straightforward manner.
By making the trail from input to results clearly understandable, fewer errors will occur and
fewer traps stepped into. Thus the engineering design method can be applied by the plain
engineer and yields nearly as good results as finely tuned sophisticated probabilistic models.
4.2 Further Developments
The method as proposed has been applied so far to a few examples only. It is hoped that for
distinct fields of application, standard equations and factors can be defined, together with, for
each climate, the respective input data.
These tools will help to make service life design a standard engineering technique thus
fulfilling the requirements set by owners or the European Commission [CPD 1988].
4.3 Research Needs
Further research is needed, to identify the relevant parameters governing the service life of
structures of all kinds of materials, as well as to set up workable mathematical relations for the
application of the engineering design method.

REFERENCES

Aarseth, L.I., Hovde, P.J. (1999): Stochastic approach of the factor method for estimating
service life, 8DBMC, pp. 1247-1256.
Abu-Tair, A.I., McParland, C., Lyness, J.F., Nadjai, A. (2002): Predictive models of
deterioration rates of concrete bridges using the factor method based on historic
inspection data, 9DBMC, paper 262.
Abraham, D.M., Wirahadikusumah, R. (1999): Development of prediction models for sewer
deterioration, 8DBMC, pp. 1257-1267.
Aikivuori, A.M. (1999): Critical loss of performance what fails before durability, 8DBMC,
pp. 1369-1376.
Ansell, A, Racutanu, G., Sundquist, H. (2002): A Markov approach in estimating the service
life of bridge elements in Sweden, 9DBMC, paper 142.
Brandt, E., Wittchen, K.B., Faist, A., Genre, J.L. (1999): EPIQR A new surveying tool for
maintenance and refurbishment, 8DBMC, pp. 1576-1584.
Breitenbchner, R., Gehlen, C., Schiessl, P., Van den Hoonard, J., Siemes, T. (1999): Service
life design of the Western Scheldt tunnel, 8DBMC, pp. 3-15.
Bauproduktegesetz und Verordnung ber Bauprodukte (Swiss Law and regulation on building
products), Berne, 01 January 2001.
CPD (1988): Construction Products Directive, European Community Council 89/106/EWG
updated 93/68/EWG.
De Brito, J., Branco, F.A. (1998): Road bridges functional failure costs and benefits,
Canadian Journal of Engineering, nr. 2, April 1998, pp. 261-270.
Dotreppe, J-C. (1999): Degradation mechanisms and service life of concrete slabs of
composite bridges, 8DBMC, pp. 16-27.
DuraCrete Manual (2000): The European Union, Brite EuRam III, contract BRPR-CT95-
0132, Project BE95-1347, Report no. BE95-1347/R17, May 2000.
Edvardsen, C., Mohr, L. (2000): Designing and Rehabilitating Concrete Structures:
Probabilistic Approach (DuraCrete), proc. CANMET/ACI 2000, Intl. Conference on
Durability of Concrete, pp. 1193-1208.
Enright, M.P., Frangopol, D. M. (1998): Service life prediction of deteriorating concrete
bridges, Journal of Structural engineering, Vol. 124, No. 3, March 1998, pp. 309-317.
Estes, A.C., Frangopol, D. M. (1999): Repair optimisation of highway bridges using system
reliability approach, Journal of Structural Engineering, vol. 125, No. 7, July 1999, pp.
776-775.

Faber, M.H., Gehlen, C. (2002): Probabilistischer Ansatz zur Beurteilung der Dauerhaftigkeit
von bestehenden Stahlbetonbauten, Beton und Stahlbetonbau 97, Heft 8, pp. 421-429.
Fagerlund, G. (1999): Service life with regard to frost attack a probabilistic approach, proc.
8DBMC, pp. 1268-1279.
Flintsch, G.W., Zaniewski, J.P., Medina, A. (1997): Remaining service life analysis
Implementation in the ADOT pavement management system, Infrastructure condition
assessment: Art, science, and practice, Boston, Massachusetts, Aug 25-27, 1997, ISBN
0-7844-0267-1, ASCE, 592 p., pp. 131-140.
Florentzou, F., Brandt, E., Wetzel, C. (1999): Medic a method for predicting residual
service life and refurbishment investment budgets, 8DBMC, pp. 1280-1288.
Frangopol, D.M. and Hitoshi, F., Eds. (2001): US-Japan Workshop on Life-Cycle Cost
Analysis and Design of Civil Infrastructure Systems, Proceedings, Honolulu, Hawaii,
ISBN 0-7488-0571-9, 323 p., 2001.
Frohnsdorff, G.J.C., Martin J.W. (1996): Towards prediction of building service life: The
standards imperative, 7DMBC, pp. 1417-1428.
Frohnsdorff, G.J.C. (1996): Predicting the service lives of materials in construction, 4
th

Materials Engineering Conference: Materials for the new millennium, Washington
DC, ISBN 0-7844-210-8, 1776 p., pp. 38-53, ASCE, Nov 10-14 1996.
Helland, S. (1999): Assessment and prediction of service life of marine structures, a tool for
performance based requirements? Workshop by Duranet on "Design and durability of
concrete", Berlin, June 1999.
Hong, H.P. (2000): Assessment of reliability of aging reinforced concrete structures, Journal
of Structural Engineering, December 2000, pp. 1458-1465.
Hovde, P.J. (2002): The factor method for service life prediction from theoretical evaluation
to practical implementation, 9DBMC, paper 232.
ISO 15686-1:2000, Buildings and constructed assets - Service life planning- Part 1: General
principles, International Standard Organisation, Geneva.
ISO 15686-2:2001, Buildings and constructed assets: Service life planning, Part 2 Service
life prediction procedures, International Standard Organisation, Geneva.
Jernberg, P., Sjstrm, C., Lacasse, M.A (1997): State-of-the-Art-Report, Materials and
Structures, Suppl. 196 March 1997, p 22-25.
Jernberg, P. (1999): Overview and notional concepts on performance and service life,
8DBMC, pp. 1417-1425.
Kaempfer, H.W., Berndt, M., Voigtlaender, G. (2002): Estimation of residual service life for
existing sewerage systems, 9DBMC, paper 164.
Lair, J., Le Teno, J.F., Boissier, D. (1999): Durability assessment of building systems,
8DBMC, pp. 1299-1308.
Lair J., Chevalier J.L., Rilling J. (2001): Operational methods for implementing durability in
service life planning framework, CIB World Building Congress. Wellington, paper
INF 11, 10 p., April 2001.

Lair, J., Le Teno, J.F., Chevalier, J.L., Boissier, D. (2000): Service life prediction under
uncertainty as a criteria for decision-making, Eds. Mangin, J.C., Miramond, M., 2nd
Conference on Decision Making in Urban and Civil Engineering, 2 volumes, 1270 p.,
Lyon, 20-22 November 2000.
Leira, B., Lingard, J., Nesje, A., Sind, E., Saegrov, S. (1999): Degradation analysis by
statistical methods, 8DBMC, pp. 1436-1446.
Liang, M.T., Wu, J.H., Liang, C.H. (2001): Multiple layer fuzzy evaluation for existing
reinforced concrete bridges, Journal of Infrastructure Systems, 4 December 2001, p
144-159.
Lounis, Z., Lacasse, M.A., Siemes, A.J.M., Moser, K. (1998): Further steps towards a
quantitative approach to durability design, proc. Materials and Technologies for
Sustainable Construction, Construction and Environment, CIB World Building
Congress, Gvle, Sweden, pp. 315-324.
Masters, L.W., Brandt, E. (1989): Systematic methodology for service life prediction of
building materials and components, Materials and Structures, Sept 1989, pp. 385-392.
McNerney, M.T., McCullough, B.F., Stokoe, K.H., Lee, N., Bay, J., Wilde, J. (1997):
Prediction of remaining life on airport pavements, Airfield Pavement Conference,
Seattle, Washington, ASCE, ISBN 0-7844-0286-8, 392 p., pp. 77-93.
Moser, K. (1999): Towards the practical evaluation of service life Illustrative application of
the probabilistic approach, 8DBMC, pp. 1319-1329.
Moser, K., Edvardsen, C. (2002): Engineering design methods for service life prediction,
9DBMC, 12p.
Naus, D. (2000): Life prediction and aging management of concrete structures, D. Naus, Ed.,
International RILEM Workshop, Cannes, France.
Nireki, T. (1996): Service Life Design, Construction and Building Materials, nr. 5, July 1996,
p. 403-406.
Quillin, K.C., Somerville, G., Hooper, R., Nixon, P. (2002): A framework for service life
design of concrete structures, 9DBMC, paper 128.
Radojicic, A, Bailey, S.F., Brhwiler, E. (2001): Probabilistic models of cost for the
management of existing structures, US-Japan Workshop on Life-Cycle-Cost Analysis
and Design of Civil Infrastructure Systems, Hawaii, ISBN 0-7844-0571-9, ASCE, pp.
251-270.
Raj, R. (2000): An interdisciplinary framework for the design and life prediction of
engineering systems, Journal of Engineering Materials and Technology-Transactions
of ASME, July 2000, pp. 348-354.
Rudbeck, C. (2002): Service life of building envelope components: Making it operational in
economical assessment, Construction and Building Materials, pp. 83-89, March 2002.
SIA 160: Actions on Structures (1989), Swiss Association of Engineers and Architects,
Zrich.
Siemes, T., Edvardsen, C. (1999): DuraCrete: Service life design for concrete structures,
8DBMC, pp. 1343-1356.
Siemes, T, de Vries, H. (2002): Overview of the development of service life design for
concrete structures, 9DBMC, paper 261.

Stewart, M.G. (2000): Optimisation of durability design specifications for RC structures,
Structures Congress: Advanced Technology in Structural Engineering, Philadelphia,
Pennsylvania, ISBN 0-7844-0492-5, ASCE, section 21, chapter 2, May 8-10, 2000.
Strand, S.M., Hovde, P.J. (1999): Use of service life data in LCA of building materials,
8DBMC, pp. 1948-1958.
Teply, B., Novak, D., Kersner, Z., Lawanwisut, W. (1999): Deterioration of reinforced
concrete: probabilistic and sensitivity analyses, Acta Polytecnica and 8DBMC, pp.
1357-1366.
Thoft-Schristensen, P. (1997): Estimation of the service life time of concrete bridges,
Structures Congress XV: Building to Last, ISBN 0-7844-0229-9, Portland, Oregon,
1736 p., pp. 248-252, April 13-16 1997, ASCE.
VaP 1.6 for Windows (1996): Short course in Variables Processing, ETH (Swiss Federal
School of Engineering) Zrich, Manual 13 p. in English; Papers 33 p. and Examples
22 p. in German.
Vu, V.A.T., Stewart, M.G. (2002): Service life prediction of reinforced concrete structures
exposed to aggressive environments, 9DBMC, paper 119.
Wiseman, A., Kyle, B.R. (1999): Service life prediction and economic assessment of parking
garage options, 8DBMC, pp. 1493-1505.
Abbreviations and database
ASCE: American Society of Civil Engineers, Reston, Virginia, www.pubs.asce.org
Brite-EuRam project DuraCrete: Selected publications.
CIB World Building Congress 1998: Materials and technologies for sustainable construction,
Gvle, Sweden, M. Lacasse, ed., NRC, Ottawa, Canada.
CIB World Building Congress 2001: Performance in product and practice, CD by Building
research association of New Zealand (BRANZ), Eds., New Zealand.
7DBMC: Proceedings of the 7
th
international conference on the Durability of Building
Materials and Components, Sjstrm Ch., Ed., Stockholm, Sweden, E and FN Spon,
London, 19-23 May 1996.
th
Materials and Components, Lacasse and Vanier, Eds. NRC research press Ottawa,
Canada, 30 May 3 June 1999.
th
Materials and Components, Burn S. CSIRO ed., on CD ROM, ISBN 0-943-06828-7,
Brisbane, Australia, 17-19 March 2002.
SL/AM IT CD ROM, containing the full papers of the 8DBMC and the abstracts of all earlier
DBMC conferences back to 1DBMC in 1978, Lacasse and Vanier, Eds. NRC research
press Ottawa, Canada, 1999.
International Council for Research and Innovation in Building and
Construction
CIB General Secretariat:
Office address: Kruisplein 25-G tel: +31.10.411 02 40
3014 DB Rotterdam fax: +31.10.433 43 72
Postal address: P.O. Box 1837 e-mail: secretariat@cibworld.nl
3000 BV Rotterdam http//www.cibworld.nl
The Netherlands
CIB is a world wide network of over 5000 experts from about 500 organisations, who
actively cooperate and exchange information in over 50 Commissions and Task Groups.
Their scopes extend to all fields in building and construction related research and
development. They are listed on the next page.
They are actively engaged in initiating projects for R&D and information exchange,
organising workshops, symposia and congresses and producing publications of
acknowledged global repute.
It is in their ability to bring a multi-national and multi-disciplinary approach to bear on the
subject matter delineated in their Terms of Reference that is their strength.
CIB Members come from institutes, companies, partnerships and other types of
organisations as well as individual experts involved in research or in the transfer or
application of research results. More than 130 Universities worldwide have joined.
CIB is an Association that utilises the collective expertise of its membership to foster
innovations and to create workable solutions to technical, economic, social and
organisational problems within its competence.
Details on Membership and Activities are obtainable from the General Secretariat at the
address above.
CIB Task Groups (TG) and Working Commissions (W)
(as at 1st January 2004)
Task Groups
TG23 Culture in Construction
TG28 Dissemination of Indoor Air Sciences (joint CIB-ISIAQ Task Group)
TG31 Macro-Economic Data for the Construction Industry
TG33 Collaborative Engineering
TG34 Regeneration of the Built Environment
TG37 Performance Based Building Regulatory Systems
TG38 Urban Sustainability
TG39 Deconstruction
TG40 Informal Settlements
TG42 Performance Criteria of Buildings for Health and Comfort (Joint CIB-ISIAQ Task Group)
TG43 Megacities
TG44 Performance Evaluation of Buildings with Response Control Devices
TG46 Certification in Construction
TG47 Innovation Brokerage in Construction
TG49 Architectural Engineering
TG50 Tall Buildings
TG51 Usability of Workplaces
TG52 Transport and the Built Environment
TG53 Postgraduate Studies in Building and Construction
TG54 Standardisation of Fibre Reinforced Polymers (FRP) Use in Building and Construction
TG55 Smart and Sustainable Built Environments
Working Commissions
W014 Fire
W018 Timber Structures
W023 Wall Structures
W040 Heat and Moisture Transfer in Buildings
W051 Acoustics
W055 Building Economics
W056 Sandwich Panels (joint CIB - ECCS Commission)
W060 Performance Concept in Building
W062 Water Supply and Drainage
W063 Affordable Housing
W065 Organisation and Management of Construction
W067 Energy Conservation in the Built Environment
W069 Housing Sociology
W070 Facilities Management and Maintenance
W077 Indoor Climate
W078 Information Technology for Construction
W080 Prediction of Service Life of Building Materials and Components (Joint CIB-RILEM
Commission)
W082 Future Studies in Construction
W083 Roofing Materials and Systems (Joint CIB-RILEM Commission)
CIB Task Groups (TG) and Working Commissions (W0)
(as at 1st January 2004)
W084 Building Non-Handicapping Environments
W086 Building Pathology
W087 Post-Construction Liability and Insurance
W089 Building Research and Education
W092 Procurement Systems
W094 Design for Durability
W096 Architectural Management
W098 Intelligent and Responsive Buildings
W099 Safety and Health on Construction Sites
W100 Environmental Assessment of Buildings
W101 Spatial Planning and Infrastructure Development
W102 Information and Knowledge Management in Building (Joint CIB-UICB Commission)
W103 Construction Conflict: Avoidance and Resolution
W104 Open Building Implementation
W105 Life Time Engineering in Construction
W106 Geographical Information Systems
W107 Construction in Developing Countries
W108 Climate Change and the Built Environment
CIB HOME PAGE
WWW.CIBWORLD.NL
The CIB home page contains the following main and publicly accessible sections:
1. General Information
2. Newsletter
3. Databases
General Information
Included is General Information about CIB in the following sub-sections:
Introduction, including among others: CIB in the past and present
Mission Statement
Membership which includes information on the various types of CIB Membership and
on developments in the composition of the CIB Membership
Organisation, including the composition of the CIB Board and its Standing Committees
and of the CIB General Secretariat and links with the CIB Partner Organisations
Programme of Activities
Services to Members, and in addition the possibilities for Members to participate in
CIB's Programme of Activities
Fee System and How To Join, including the description of the current Membership Fee
Levels and the option to electronically request a Membership Application Form
Newsletters
In this section electronic copies are included of the various issues of INFORMATION, the
CIB Bi-Monthly Newsletter, as published over the last couple of years. Also included is an
Index to facilitate searching articles on certain topics published in all included issues of
INFORMATION
Databases
This is the largest section in the CIB home page. It includes fact sheets in separate on-line
regularly updated databases, with detailed searchable information as concerns:
500 CIB Member Organisations, including among others: descriptions of their Fields
of Activities, contact information and links with their Websites
5000 Individual Contacts, with an indication of their Fields of Expertise, photo and
contact information
50 CIB Task Groups and Working Commissions, with a listing of their Coordinators
and Members, Scope and Objectives, Work Programme and Planned Outputs,
Publications produced so far, and Schedule of Meetings
100 Publications, originating to date from the CIB Task Groups and Working
Commissions, with a listing of their contents, price and information on how to order
250 Meetings, including an indication of subjects, type of Meeting, dates and
location, contact information and links with designated websites for all CIB Meetings
( 50 each year) and all other international workshops, symposia, conferences, etc. of
potential relevance for people interested in research and innovation in the area of
building and construction
Searchable Data: an Example
Searching for certain publications in the Databases in the CIB home page can be done in
the following three ways:
1. In the home page itself a pre-selection is included of all recent CIB publications
(published in the last 4 to 6 months). By clicking on "New Publications" the
respective list will appear. By clicking on a title in this list the information fact sheet
about this Publication will appear, including the option for an electronic order if it
concerns a publication produced by the CIB Secretariat.
2. In the description of a Task Group or Working Commission in the database
"Commissions" a pre-programmed selection is included of all publications produced
under the responsibility of each Commission.
3. In the database "Publications" one can search, for example, for all publications on a
certain topic, by simply typing the word that covers this topic in the box "Title" in the
search page that appears when one asks for this database.

WWW.CIBWORLD.NL

01 Pub 294

Diunggah oleh

Informasi Dokumen

Judul Asli

Hak Cipta

Format Tersedia

Bagikan dokumen Ini

Bagikan atau Tanam Dokumen

Opsi Berbagi

Apakah menurut Anda dokumen ini bermanfaat?

Apakah konten ini tidak pantas?

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

01 Pub 294

Diunggah oleh

Hak Cipta:

Format Tersedia

Performance Based Methods for

Service Life Prediction

Anda mungkin juga menyukai