***CUBA OIL DRILLING AFF***

1AC

Environment Advantage 1AC Advantage __: Environment

Cuban attempts at offshore drilling are inevitable only a rapid U.S. response can prevent spills Bert and Clayton 12 Melissa, 2011-12 Military Fellow, U.S. Coast Guard, and Blake, Fellow for Energy and National Security (Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill, March, http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515)//SEP
Defending U.S. Interests An oil well blowout in Cuban waters would almost certainly require a U.S. response. Without changes in current U.S. law, however, that response would undoubtedly come far more slowly than is desirable. The Coast Guard would be barred from deploying highly experienced manpower, specially designed booms, skimming equipment and vessels, and dispersants. U.S. offshore gas and oil companies would also be barred from using well-capping stacks, remotely operated submersibles, and other vital technologies. Although a handful of U.S. spill responders hold licenses to work with Repsol, their licenses do not extend to well capping or relief drilling. The result of a slow response to a Cuban oil spill would be greater,

perhaps catastrophic, economic and environmental damage to Florida and the Southeast. Efforts to rewrite current law and policy toward Cuba, and encouraging cooperation with its government, could antagonize groups opposed to improved relations with the Castro regime. They might protest any decision allowing U.S. federal agencies to assist Cuba or letting U.S. companies operate in
Cuban territory. However, taking

sensible steps to prepare for a potential accident at an oil well in Cuban waters would not break new ground or materially alter broader U.S. policy toward Cuba. For years, Washington has
worked with Havana on issues of mutual concern. The United States routinely coordinates with Cuba on search and rescue operations in the Straits of Florida as well as to combat illicit drug trafficking and migrant smuggling. During the hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) provides Cuba with information on Caribbean storms. The recommendations proposed here are narrowly tailored to the specific challenges that a Cuban oil spill poses to the United States. They would not help the Cuban economy or military. What they would do is protect U.S. territory and property from a potential danger emanating from Cuba. Cuba will drill for oil in its

territorial waters with or without the blessing of the United States. Defending against a potential oil spill requires a modicum of advance coordination and preparation with the Cuban government, which need not go beyond spill-related matters. Without
taking these precautions, the United States risks a second Deepwater Horizon, this time from Cuba.

Status quo efforts are insufficient to stop an oil spill general and pre-approved licenses are needed to solve CDA, 12 Center for Democracy in the Americas, nonprofit devoted to changing American policy towards the countries of the Americas (Not Like Oil and Water: Cuba and the U.S. Can Cooperate on Drilling,http://cubacentral.wordpress.com/2012/09/07/not-like-oil-and-water-cuba-and-theus-can-cooperate-on-drilling/)//SEP
The Environmental Defense Fund recently released a report called Bridging the Gulf in which we concluded that current U.S. foreign policy on Cuba creates a conspicuous blind spot that is detrimental to the interests of both countries. A failure to cooperate on oil spill

planning, prevention, and response in the Gulf of Mexico could result in devastating environmental and economic impacts on a scale greater than the 2010 BP oil disaster.
Recently, I witnessed a potential bright spot in US-Cuba relations that could lead to real and meaningful cooperation in protecting Cuban and American shores from future oil spills. As the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA was preparing to drill off of Cubas northwest coast in August, U.S. and Cuban negotiators met i n Mexico City to discuss how to work together to prevent and respond to future oil spills in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea. The meeting was the fourth in a series of landmark talks hosted by the International Maritime Organization (IMO), and included officials from Mexico, Jamaica, Bahamas, and other countries in the region. I was among the handful of industry and environmental representatives invited to attend. I was struck by the candid back-and-forth discussions on the risks involved in deep water oil drilling and by the constructive exchanges between delegates from Cuba and the United States. I came away convinced that negotiators from both countries are operating in

good faith and are committed to making progress on this issue. That being said, more needs to be done.
Attendees agreed that the BP oil disaster was a wake-up call and that failure to heed the lessons learned from it would be an inexcusable and costly mistake. Chief among those lessons is that oil spills do not observe political boundaries and, as such, joint planning among all countries in the region is critical. The event also taught us that sufficient public and private resources must be available to contain and clean-up oil pollution as soon as possible. In fact, the scale of response needed for the BP spill was unprecedented 6,500 vessels, 125 planes, 48,000 responders, and equipment resourced globally.

Several presenters in Mexico City emphasized that full and timely access to private sector equipment and response personnel, wherever they are located, is fundamental to responding effectively to future oil spills. This lesson is particularly relevant to the current U.S.-Cuba talks.

If a major oil spill were to occur in Cuban waters anytime soon, the U.S. Coast Guard as incident commander would be able to marshal the resources needed to address oil pollution after it enters our waters. The agency has neither the authority nor the mandate, however, to support response and clean-up activities in Cuban waters. Furthermore, the Cuban government would be hamstrung in its ability to solicit direct help from private sector oil spill response companies in the United States. Currently, only a few American companies are licensed by the U.S. government to work in Cuba (actual names and numbers of license holders are not a matter of public record.). The Obama Administration could solve this problem by directing the Treasury Department to adopt a new category of general licenses to allow U.S. individuals from qualified oil services and equipment companies to travel to Cuba and provide technical expertise in the event of an oil disaster. The Administration should also direct the Commerce Department to pre-approve licenses for the temporary export of U.S. equipment, vessels, and technology to Cuba for use during a significant oil spill. Alternative methods of spill containment fail in Cuban waters only U.S. techniques solve

Bert and Clayton, 12 Melissa, 2011-12 Military Fellow, U.S. Coast Guard, and Blake, Fellow for Energy and National Security (Addressing the Risk of a Cuban Oil Spill, March, http://www.cfr.org/cuba/addressing-risk-cuban-oil-spill/p27515)//SEP
Washington cannot count on the technical know-how of Cubas unseasoned oil industry to address a spill on its own. Oil industry experts doubt that it has a strong understanding of how to prevent an offshore oil spill or stem a deepwater well blowout Moreover, the site where the first wells will be drilled is a tough one for even seasoned response teams to operate in. Unlike the calm Gulf of Mexico, the surface currents in the area where Repsol will be drilling move at a brisk three to four knots, which would bring oil from Cuba's offshore wells to the Florida coast within six to ten days. Skimming or burning the oil may not be feasible in such fast-moving water. The most, and possibly only, effective method to respond to a spill would be surface and subsurface dispersants. If dispersants are not applied close to the source within four days after a spill, uncontained oil cannot be disbursed, burnt or skimmed, which would render standard response technologies like containment booms ineffective.

Oil spills are very likely without advanced U.S. drilling technology which no country can use under the embargo Davenport, 11 (Coral, National Journal, Drill, Bebe, Drill, 7/28, http://www.nationaljournal.com/magazine/will-sloppy-drilling-off-the-coast-of-cuba-threatenflorida-gulf-beaches--20110728)//SEP
But the potential of a closer relationship with Cuba comes with a terrifying specter: An oil blowout in Cuban waters could reprise the nightmare that was last years Gulf of Mexico oil spill, and send crude spewing to the beaches of Florida, Georgia, and South

Carolina. And the likelihood for such a disaster is very real, say oil industry experts, thanks in part to Washingtons 49-year-old embargo on Cuba. Because of the embargo, U.S. companies cannot drill in Cuba, supply equipment to Cuba, have any say over safety regulations in Cuba, or even take part in helping control a blowout and spill in Cuba. As the island prepares to begin offshore drilling, it has signed contracts with oil companies from Brazil, India, Italy, Russia, and Spain and is in talks to lease major portions of its coastal water to Chinese companies (continuing Chinas pattern of pursuing oil exploration in countries where U.S. drillers arent welcome). Under the embargos terms, the oil drilling and safety equipment used by those companies must be less than 10 percent U.S.-made. But all of the most technologically advanced equipment for drilling and preventing or stopping oil spills is made in the United States or by U.S. companies. There are not international suppliers of this level of equipment. They will have to buy copycat or second-tier parts, Lee Hunter,
president of the Houston-based International Association of Drilling Contractors, told National Journal. Hunter and other experts say that, to date, it appears that the Cuban government, fearful of the devastation an oil spill could wreak on its economy, wants to use the lessons learned from the BP oil disaster to develop a rigorous safety and oversight program. But it will be nearly impossible for drillers in Cubas

waters to legally use the safest equipment. The Cubans want to use good technology; they want to drill safely, Hunter said. But their ability to drill safely is extremely compromised. Also deeply compromised is their ability to respond to a disaster should it occur. Even if oil from a Cuban spill laps at Floridas shores, the U.S. agencies and oil companies that have all -too-hard-won expertise in wrestling a spill

the Coast Guard, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, and the Interior Department would be banned from crossing into Cuban waters to help. And experts say that the Cuban oil industry and government dont yet have a fraction of the resources and expertise they would need to deal with such an event on their own.
State Department officials are well aware of the problem, and they are working with Hunters group, along with others, to find a way for U.S. companies to get into Cuban watersif not to drill, at least to help out in case of a spill. One way this could happen is if the Treasury Department issues special advance licenses granting U.S. companies the ability to travel to Cuban waters to give aid in a disaster. Cuban officials are also cautiously indicating interest in cooperating with the U.S. on the plan, despite the embargo.

Cuban oil spill devastates Floridas ecosystem without U.S. intervention

Stephens and Colvin, 11 Sarah, Executive Director of the Center for Democracy in the America, and Jake, VP for Global Trade Issues at the National Foreign Trade Council (US-Cuba policy, and the race for oil drilling, 9/29, http://thehill.com/blogs/congressblog/foreign-policy/184661-us-cuba-policy-and-the-race-for-oil-drilling)//SEP To protect the national interest and for the sake of Florida's beaches and the Gulf of Mexicos ecosystem it is
time to stop sticking our heels in the sand when it comes to U.S.-Cuba policy. Before the end of the year, a Chinese-made
drilling platform known as Scarabeo 9 is expected to arrive in the Gulf. Once it is there, Cuba and its foreign partners, including Spains Repsol, will begin using it to drill for oil in waters deeper than Deepwater Horizons infamous Macondo well. The massive rig, manufa ctured to comply with U.S.-content restrictions at a cost of $750 million, will cost Repsol and other companies $407,000 per day to lease for exploration. They are taking this financial risk because Cuba needs the oil and its partners Spain, Norway, Russia, India, Vietnam, Malaysia, Canada, Angola, Venezuela, and possibly China believe that drilling in waters said to contain undiscovered reserves of approximately 5 billion barrels of oil is good business. In virtually every other country in the world, developments like these would prompt high-level discussions about how to exploit these resources safely or to anticipate a crisis were a disaster to strike. Experts who have

studied the currents say a spill in Cuban waters would send 90% of the oil into the Keys and up the East Coast of Florida. But the embargo leaves Floridas sensitive coastal resources defenseless. Due to the fact that the drilling involves Cuba, American companies and workers cannot lend their expertise to what could be a risky operation. U.S. economic sanctions prevent our private sector from helping Cuba drill safely and paralyze the U.S. government, which
ought to be convening bilateral discussions on best practices and coordinating disaster response. In fact, the U.S. has no emergency response agreement with Cuba for oil spills. While some specific licenses have been granted to permit U.S. firms to conduct limited transactions with Cuba, current sanctions bar the United Statesfrom deploying the kind of clean-up equipment, engineers, spare

parts for blow-out prevention, chemical dispersants, and rigs to drill relief wells that would be needed to address an oil crisis involving Cuba. Oil spill casts the final blow to Floridas coral reefs even a few days delay would be catastrophic Thompson, 11- Freelance writer focused on science, environmental, and outdoor stories

(Kaylee, What if Cubas Offshore Oil Project, Only 100 Miles From Florida, Goes Wrong?, Popular Mechanics, November 2, 2011, http://www.popularmechanics.com/science/energy/coal-oilgas/what-if-cubas-offshore-oil-project-only-100-miles-from-florida-goes-wrong)//TWR
Cubas enormous offshore oil potential, discovered several years ago, lies in Gulf waters even deeper than those where BPs D eepwater Horizon operated. Not long after the reserve was found, the Cuban national oil company, Cubapetroleo, briefed a number of environmental scientists on the projected aftereffects of the event they hope will never occur: a large-scale blowout. "Their models showed that 90 percent of an oil spill would end up in the Florida Straights, which becomes the Gulf Stream," says David Guggenheim, a marine biologist who has spent more than a decade working in Florida. A potential spill would hit the most sensitive areas

in the Florida Keys before rounding the east coast of Florida, and heading farther north. "Its coral reefs; its mangroves. Shallow areas that are very sensitive and already have gone through an incredible degradation over the last few years," Guggenheim says. "Almost half of that coral reef has died now due to other stresses. This could be the final blow." Geography is only part of the problem. More than half a century has
passed since the U.S. severed diplomatic relations with Cuba, which the State Department considers a State Sponsor of Terrorism. Disaster-response experts from industry, academia, and government are all concerned that the political standoff could hinder response should the worst happen. "To enter Cuban waters as a citizen, you need to have a license. To send equipment, you need special export licenses. We have a lot of items that youd think would be totally innocuous that we cannot ship," Guggenheim says . The Coast

Guard and other U.S. agencies dont have authorization to operate in a foreign exclusive economic zone, and it could take hoursor worse, daysafter a spill has taken place just to get that permission .
And for a worst-case scenario, thats just not fast enough. "Its pretty ugly," Guggenheim says. "Those currents move so fast we would have to react incredibly quickly if we were going to deploy skimmers, say, to take some oil up." In the year and a half since the BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, advanced planning for future accidents has improved, according to John Slaughter, chief of planning, readiness, and response for the 7th Coast Guard District, which includes Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. Local stakeholders have developed regional plans to deal with pollution nearing shore, while organizations such as the Coast Guard are drawing up separate plans to deal with offshore oil. "When you get into an offshore environment, its kind of a new animal," Slaughter says. "Youre talking about offshore skimmers, dispersant use, in situ burning." The U.S. has a written contingency plan with Mexico that prescribes how the two nations would work together to respond to an offshore spill. But as for a spill originating in Cuban seas? "Clearly, there are advantages in being

able to address pollution at its source. We may or may not be able to do that immediately," Slaughter says. The moment a spill reaches U.S. waters, though, the green light is on. "We have a robust response plan put together by the Coast Guard with industry to address any pollution in U.S. waters."

Ocean biodiversity key to survival Craig, 3 - Attorneys Title Professor of Law and Associate Dean for Environmental Programs at Florida State University (Robin Kundis, ARTICLE: Taking Steps Toward Marine Wilderness Protection? Fishing and Coral Reef Marine Reserves in Florida and Hawaii, McGeorge Law Review, Winter 2003, 34 McGeorge L. Rev. 155)
Biodiversity and ecosystem function arguments for conserving marine ecosystems also exist, just as they do for terrestrial ecosystems, but these arguments have thus far rarely been raised in political debates. For example, besides significant tourism values - the most economically valuable ecosystem service coral reefs provide, worldwide - coral reefs protect against storms and dampen other environmental fluctuations, services worth more than ten times the reefs' value for food production. n856 Waste treatment is another significant, non-extractive ecosystem function that intact coral reef ecosystems provide. n857 More generally, "ocean ecosystems play a major role in the

global geochemical cycling of all the elements that represent the basic building blocks of living organisms, carbon, nitrogen, oxygen, phosphorus, and sulfur, as well as other less abundant but necessary elements ." n858 In a very real and direct sense, therefore, human degradation of marine ecosystems impairs the planet's ability to support life . Maintaining biodiversity is often critical to maintaining the functions of marine ecosystems. Current evidence shows that, in general, an ecosystem's ability to keep functioning in the face of disturbance is strongly dependent on its biodiversity, "indicating that more diverse ecosystems are more stable." n859 Coral reef ecosystems are particularly dependent on their biodiversity. [*265] Most ecologists agree that the complexity of interactions and degree of interrelatedness among component species is
higher on coral reefs than in any other marine environment. This implies that the ecosystem functioning that produces the most highly valued components is also complex and that many otherwise insignificant species have strong effects on sustaining the rest of the reef system. n860 Thus, maintaining and restoring the biodiversity of marine ecosystems is critical to maintaining and restoring the

ecosystem services that they provide. Non-use biodiversity values for marine ecosystems have been calculated in the wake of marine
disasters, like the Exxon Valdez oil spill in Alaska. n861 Similar calculations could derive preservation values for marine wilderness. However, economic value, or economic value equivalents, should not be "the sole or even primary justification for conservation of ocean ecosystems. Ethical arguments also have considerable force and merit." n862 At the forefront of such arguments should be a recognition of how little we know about the sea - and about the actual effect of human activities on marine ecosystems. The United States has traditionally failed to protect marine ecosystems because it was difficult to detect anthropogenic harm to the oceans, but we now know that such harm is occurring - even though we are not completely sure about causation or about how to fix every problem. Ecosystems like the NWHI coral reef ecosystem

should inspire lawmakers and policymakers to admit that most of the time we really do not know what we are doing to the sea and hence should be preserving marine wilderness whenever we can - especially when the United States has within its territory relatively pristine marine ecosystems that may be unique in the world.

Relations 1AC Advantage __: Relations Now is key China is shoring up influence in Cuba Boston Globe, 2/9 (Cubas reforms pave way for new US policy, too, 2013, http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/editorials/2013/02/09/cuba-reform-create-opportunity-drag-policy-intocentury/xER2NTTXGsxdLej0miHwFM/story.html) Relations between the U nited S tates and Cuba have been stuck since the U nited S tates imposed a full economic embargo in 1962, and during the election season neither President Obama nor Mitt Romney signaled much desire to change the status quo. Yet while Americans have been looking elsewhere, significant change has come to Cuba. The communist government of the ruling Castro brothers, Fidel and Raul, is in the midst of a slow experiment to promote economic entrepreneurship. Late last year, Cuba instituted reforms to its immigration policies that allow Cubans to travel abroad freely and allow those who have emigrated or fled to return home. These changes, and the beginning of Obamas second term, create an unusual opportunity to acknowledge Cubas gestures and respond in a substantive way. Rather than simply extend policies that, in five decades, have failed to dislodge the Castros, the Obama administration has a chance to drag US policy into the 21st century.
The Cuban-American population, which has historically opposed any loosening of US policy, is no longer monolithic. Supporting greater contact with friends, family, and the Cuban economy now animates a younger generation of Florida voters. Because of this trend, Obama who performed nearly as well with Cuban-American voters as Romney has more maneuvering room politically. The first step would be to end the silly claim, reinstated by the Obama administration last summer, that Cuba remains a state sponsor of terrorism. The administration argued that Cuba harbored members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. It has, but the FARC and Colombia are now in negotiations; those peace talks are supported by the Obama White House in order to end a bloody civil war. By depoliticizing the Cuba portfolio, the U nited S tates could then begin to lessen trade restrictions, starting with promoting cultural exchanges; ending the travel ban; and eventually allowing for trade in oil, gas, and other commodities. Over time, billions of dollars in new trade between the two nations will benefit both. This would include boosts to US farm companies while helping Cubans. Direct relations would also further US national security and environmental interests; as Cuba opens up, other countries will sweep in to seek influence, as China has already done. Especially as Cuba increasingly promotes offshore drilling and other maritime exploration, the United States must improve communication with Havana. Currently, even though the United States and Cuba are separated by a narrow channel, the two countries have no bilateral communications to ensure safety standards for their mutual protection from oil spills. Secretary of State John Kerry should make Cuba a focus of his first months in office. Unfortunately, his successor as chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is Robert Menendez of New Jersey, a son of Cuban immigrants who has opposed the administrations efforts to ease relations. Menendez will need to be convinced that he can help Cubans more by re setting American policy. Absent military intervention, there are very few opportunities for a president to dramatically alter relations with a historic foe; Obama has taken such advantage of a disorientingly rapid liberalization by Burmas military rulers. Raul Castros recent decision to lift travel restrictions on Cuban citizens is similarly momentous and signals that the timing is ripe for a new

diplomatic agenda with Cuba.

Cooperative drilling is critical for relations energy has strategic significance for both countries

Grogg, 12 IPS (Patricia, citing Luiz Rene Fernandez, Senior Research and Professor at University of Havana in International Economics, Cuba: Oil Drilling Opens Up New Possibilities, 2/16, http://www.ipsnews.net/2012/02/cuba-oil-drilling-opens-up-new-possibilities/)//SEP
The search for oil in Cubas Gulf of Mexico waters, launched by the Spanish firm Repsol, has triggered speculation about future prospects for Cuba and the possibility of this country one day making the transition from importer to exporter of crude. Moreover, given its strategic importance for both the United States nd Cuba, some analysts believe that energy offers a potential area for cooperation that could eventually help pave the way to the normalization of relations between the two countries. For
the moment, the Cuban authorities and oil industry personnel are remaining discreetly silent on the subject. CUPET, the state-owned oil company, has limited itself to officially confirming the arrival in the country on Jan. 19 of the Scarabeo 9 oil rig for the resumption in the coming days of deepwater drilling for oil exploration. Drilling operations presumably began in late Ja nuary. According to CUPET, the goal is to continue testing to determine the potential for oil and gas production in Cubas exclusive economic zone (EEZ) in the Gulf of Mexico. The results of the drilling will contribute to defining that potential. After opening up its economy to foreign investment in 1991, Cuba divided the EEZ, which covers an area of 112,000 sq km, into 59 oil and gas exploration blocks. On Jan. 18, Rafael Tenreiro, director of exploration and production at CUPET, reiterated a previous estimate of a potential 20,000 million barrels in the area. At the launching of the book Perforacin de pozos petroleros marinos (Offshore Oil Well Drilling) by Rolando Fernndez, supervisor of the Gulf of Mexico operations group, Tenreiro stated that it was possible that Cuba could become an oil exporter. We have to prepare the country for this good news, he added, stressi ng the need for the production of technology and participation in the entire process. In 2011, more than 20 offshore exploration blocks had already been

leased to large foreign energy companies, including, in addition to Repsol, StatoilHydro of Norway, ONGC Videsh of India, PETRONAS of Malaysia, PetroVietnam, Gazprom of Russia, Sonangol of Angola the Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA. Reflecting on the potential ramifications should Repsols exploratory drilling prove successful, university professor Fernando Martirena told IPS that la rge-scale development of the Cuban oil industry would obviously provide a boost to the government programmes currently underway, since it would represent a needed injection of fresh foreign currency into a tense national economy. This scenario, combined with the pac kage of measures being implemented as a result of the updating of the Cuban economic model, will heat up the issue of the blockade, said Martirena. Under the U.S. economic embargo against this Caribbean island nation, in place for 50 years this month, U.S. companies are shut out from profiting from a potential oil boom in Cuba. In Martirenas view, if the U.S. Congress wants to be pragmatic, it will have to choose between continuing to support the hysterical Cuban-American bloc that does so much lobbying around the issue of the blockade, or simply accepting reality that there is no reason to maintain this policy. Cuban-American members of Congress headed up by the chairwoman of the influential House Foreign Affairs Committee, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen, have attempted to block Repsols drilling operations in Cuban waters. While they claim that their opposition is based on concerns for the environment and the security of the United States, analysts believe that their motivation is primarily political. Before arriving in Cuban waters, the Scarabeo 9 drilling rig built in China and assembled in Singapore, and therefore exempt from the prohibitions of the U.S. embargo successfully passed inspection by personnel from the U.S. Department of the Interiors Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement and the U.S. Coast Guard. CUPET has also vouched that the cutting-edge equipment leased by Repsol for its drilling operations has been duly verified to include the necessary features to guarantee the utmost efficiency and safety. The exploratory drilling is expected to last roughly two and a half months. Technically speaking, the chances of a mishap occurring in Cubas economic area are extremely small, not only because of the precautions taken, but also for purely statistical reasons. This is one drilling rig out of the countless rigs operating outside of Cuban waters in the Gulf of Mexico, economist Luis Ren Fernndez commented to IPS. An expert on Cuba -U.S. relations, Fernndez noted that while there are political risks associated with the issues of security and environmental impacts, there are also experiences that indicate that these could and should be reduced. (Socialist) Venezuela has not stopped supplying oil to the United St ates, although it has tried to diversity its markets, he mentioned as an example. He also pointed to the migration accords signed by Havana and Washington and Cubas purchases of food from U.S. companies despite all of the restrictions and limitations. In these cases, among the re asons for a certain type of communication and collaboration, it always boils down to the importance of geography. There are common issues in which it is more beneficial for both sides to address them directly and even to cooperate. Not doing so could have high costs, not only economic, but also for the environment and security, he said. Fernndez stressed that the U.S. government is not a unified actor and that there are different agencies that deal with matters such as energy and the environment. There are experts and professionals who fulfil their missions and could have real impacts on the concrete political situation, he said, due to geographical proximity but also because it is advisable to cooperate in spite of political and ideological differences. In his opinion, both countries are moving in the mid term and especially in the lon g term towards the normalisation of relations, regardless of the particular political circumstances in the United States. On the Cuban side, there is a well-known willingness to cooperate and even to debate, on respectful and equal terms, all of the aspects of the bilateral conflict, he stressed. This could be another

important area for cooperation, precisely because of the strategic significance of energy sources for both the United States and Cuba. Are there risks? Without a doubt. But the benefits of cooperation definitely outweigh them, Fernndez
concluded. .

Cooperative drilling boosts U.S. stature and influence in Latin America and prevents Chinese incursion Benjamin-Alvadaro, 6 Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha (Jonathan, Report for the Cuban Research Institute, The Current Status and Future Prospects for

Oil Exploration in Cuba: A Special, http://cri.fiu.edu/research/commissioned-reports/oil-cubaalvarado.pdf)

Given that there are no formal diplomatic of economic relations between the governments of the United States and Cuba, the level of interest has grown significantly in the 3 years due primarily to three reasons in the following interest areas: energy security interests; broader regional strategic; and purely economic interests. First, the energy security interests in the potential of Cuban oil although it really would not minimize the immediacy of an American energy crisis is seen as possible if only partial remedy to energy supply concerns. Second, as Cuba, in part because of the increasing number of oil partnerships furthers its diplomatic and economic ties to with countries like Venezuela, China, Brazil and members of the European Union it may prove to provide Cuba for a sufficient buffer against U.S. opposition as it solidifies it economic and diplomatic role in the region. This is important inasmuch as there is a de facto trend in the Americas that clearly disavows and attempts to minimize the influence of the United States in the region, and with the growing demands on the world economy by China, it stands to reason that Cuba may assume an increasing stature that almost potentially lessens the presence of American influence in Cuban and hence regional affairs. Finally, and as demonstrated by the presence of American oil interests in the February 2006 U.S.- Cuban Energy Summit in Mexico City, there may be interest in cooperating in joint venture projects, and by extension assisting in the long-term development in Cubas oil industry. To accomplish this task the report seeks to lay out some national security policy considerations applying strategic thought to what I will term Post -Oil Cuba a Cuba that has a small but vibrant and growing oil and gas production capacity with extensive relations with a number of partners, and an increasingly positive outlook toward addressing energy and economic development questions that have plagued the Castro regime since the Cuban Revolution.3 The primary consideration is to determine the present state of Cuban energy and what possibilities exist that would be available to American foreign policy decision makers and business interests as the relations with Cuba evolve over the coming years.4 This is important because any realistic appraisal of how Cuba is to take advantage of its oil bonanza involves the United States. Previous research in this area has clearly laid out the scope and objectives of Cuban energy development schemes in the period since the demise of Cubas favora ble trade arrangements with the former Soviet Union. Recently, and as a result of the oil discovery and Cubas energy arrangement with the government of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela there is renewed interest in Havanas energy policies. Most of that analysis has been focused on concrete possibilities where there can be cooperation in the energy field between these two neighbors. Specifically, the work has looked at areas for the convergence of energy interests as they apply to the near- and long-term energy development scenarios facing both countries. Myers Jaffe and Soligo have addressed this possibility by looking at the potential to increase diversification and dispersion of energy resources. This is an important

consideration when one takes into consideration that well over one-third of all oil refining capacity resides on or near the Houston shipping channel. The potential negative impact on Americas refining capacity following Hurricane Rita5 made a significant impression on oil industry analysts for the necessity of diversifying the location of these vital national resources. The potential of viewing Cuba as a staging area for American oil storage and refining is plausible because of the proximity of the island. The also becomes more attractive because of the growing climatic concerns over the uncertain security of oil resources in the Gulf region as clearly demonstrated by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005. While it is true that Venezuela has initiated an investment of $1 billion dollars to bring the Cienfuegos refinery online, there are still many other possibilities open and available to American companies, as well as a growing number of foreign firms.6 Additionally, Venezuela remains the fourth largest importer of oil to the United States and one can surmise that the existing trade arrangements between the U.S. and Venezuela will remain intact, the evolution of the Bolivarian revolution under Chavez and a growing Chinese presence in the region notwithstanding. Additionally, pursuing such a path would allow United States policymakers to take advantage of what Cuba has to offer in the following areas: domestic technical capabilities; continuing human capital development; strategic positioning in the Caribbean, and an improved diplomatic stature. Cuba, by any measure, possesses a largely untapped technical capacity owing to advanced training and education in the core mathematic and scientific areas. This was clearly demonstrated by its attempt to develop a nuclear energy capability in the 1980s and 1990s whereby thousands of Cubans pursued highly technical career paths leaving Cuba with among the highest ratios of scientists and engineers to the general population in all of the Americas. Moreover, the foundation of Cubas vaunted public education system remains intact and increased investment under various scenarios suggests that Cuba will continue to produce a welleducated workforce that will be critical to its future economic vitality. This raises an important consideration that being the role that Cuba will play in the region in the 21st century. It suffices to say that Cuba remains the strategically important state by virtue of its geographical location alone, in efforts against drug and human trafficking and related national and regional security matters. The extent to which a stable Cuban government has cooperated with the U.S. in drug interdiction efforts in the past suggests that the results from improved diplomatic relations between neighbors would have the effect of improving national security concerns related to terrorist activity, illicit weapons transfers and the like. Ultimately, a successful normalization of relations between the U.S. and Cuba in these areas

may well enhance and stabilize regional relations that could possibly lessen (or at a minimum, balancing) fears of a Chinese incursion in hemispheric affairs. To lessen those fears it may be useful to review the present structure of joint-

venture projects in the energy sector in Cuba to ascertain the feasibility and possible success of such an undertaking become available to American firms. Moreover, it is interesting to note that U.S. firms in the agriculture sector have successfully negotiated and consummated sales to Cuba totaling more than $1 billion dollars over the past four years under conditions that are less than optimal circumstances but have well-served the commercial interests of all parties involved.

Chinese influence in Latin America causes Taiwan war

Fergusson, 12 Researcher at Royal Society for the Arts, Master of Science, China in the International Arena, University of Glasgow (Robert, The Chinese Challenge to the Monroe Doctrine,
http://www.e-ir.info/2012/07/23/does-chinese-growth-in-latin-america-threaten-american-interests/) Taiwan domestic, or foreign policy? Chinas goals in the region amount to more than the capture of natural resources. Although the Peoples Republic of China considers resolution of the Taiwan issue to be a domestic issue, it is with some irony that one of Chinas main foreign policy goals is to isolate Taipei internationally . The PRC and the ROC compete directly for international recognition among all the states in the world. . Nowhere is this more evident than in Latin America, where 12 of the 23 nations that still have official diplomatic relations with the ROC reside. The historical
background Following the mainland Communist victory in the Chinese Civil War in 1949, the nationalist Kuomintang retreated to the island of Formosa (Taiwan) where it continued to claim to be the legitimate government of all of China. In June 1950 the United States intervened by placing its 7th fleet in the Taiwan straits to stop a conclusive military resolution to the civil war and slowly the battlefield became primarily political, concerned with legitimacy. When the United Nations was formed in 1945, the Republic of China (ROC) became one of the five permanent members of the Security Council. This gave the ROC a de facto advantage over the PRC in attaining recognition from other nation states; particularly as the diplomatic clout of the hegemonic United States supported its position as the true representative of the Chinese people, until the rapprochement of the 1970s, when the Nixon administration wished to improve ties with the de facto rulers of China in order to exploit the Sino-Soviet split. UN Resolution 2758 granted the China seat to the PRC at the expense of the R OC who were in effect exiled from the organization, and the famous 1972 visit of President Nixon to China further added legitimacy to the communist regime. All this resulted in a thawing of world opinion, and gradually as the durability and permanence of the PRC regime became ingrained, countries began switching their diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. The economics of international recognition In the Americas, the PRC had international recognition and longstanding support from ideological allies such as Cuba. However, the ROC has maintained more diplomatic

support in the Americas than any other region, mainly due to the small nature of the states involved and the importance of Taiwanese aid to their economies. Li notes that from the late 1980s to the early 1990s, roughly 10 percent of
Taiwans direct foreign investment (FDI) went to Latin America and the Caribbean, [51] highlighting the concerted effort mad e in the region.

Economic solidarity is increasingly important to the formation of the Taiwan-Latin America relationship, for two reasons. The first is that for Latin American states, the decision of which China to support is less ideological and political than it ever has been; which makes the decision a straight up economic zero-sum choice. The second is that Latin America is home to natural resources which are of great significance to the hungry growing economies of the PRC and the ROC regardless of international recognition. However, while the decision is not political for Latin American countries, for Taiwan, every country which switches its recognition to the PRC damages its legitimacy as a nation state in the international arena. The Table below shows the designation of diplomatic recognition in the region in 2008. Countries Recognising the PRC
(China)Countries Recognising the ROC (Taiwan)Central AmericaMexico, Costa RicaEl Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua,

PanamaCaribbeanAntigua & Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Cuba, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Suriname, Trinidad & TobagoBelize, Dominican Republic, Haiti, St Kitts & Nevis, St. Lucia, St. Vincent & the GrenadinesSouth AmericaArgentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Uruguay, VenezuelaParaguay On the other hand, for the PRC, every state which withdraws its support for the ROC takes it one step closer to being in a position where it can resolve the Taiwan issue unilaterally . Subsequently,

undermining Taiwan is of the utmost importance to China, and it has taken to outbidding Taiwan in offers of foreign aid, a strategy made possible by the decline in aid from the defunct Soviet Union, and the West, which is pre occupied with terrorism
and the Middle East. Li notes that the regions leaders have turned to Asia for help to promote trade and financial assis tance, and consequently played the PRC and Taiwan against each other. [53] Despite its smaller size, Taiwan has fared remarkably well in this bidding war; focusing its aid investments on infrastructure such as stadiums in St Kitts & Nevis for the Cricket World Cup in 2007. However, even Taiwans economy can be put under strain by the seemingly relentless stream of foreign aid which has brought only debateable and mild gains to the Taiwanese cause. This has contributed to the PRC picking off the few remaining supporters of the ROC take for example, the Dominican case. In early 2004, Commonwealth of Dominica asked Taipei for a $58 million aid, which is unrelated to public welfare. The Caribbean nation had relied on Taiwan to develop its agriculture-based economy since 1983. Diplomatic relationship was soon broken after Taipei turned down the request. [54] This incident showcased the fact that in economic terms, the PRC is winning the battle for Latin America. Political strategies of the PRC In political terms too; the PRC is in an advantageous position, thanks in part again to its position within the UN. While it can be argued that China provides incentives but does not threaten harm to induce countries to defec t from recognizing Taiwan, [55] the reality is that the use of force and direct harm are not the only means available to an economic entity as powerful as China. It

refuses to maintain official relations with any state that recognises the ROC; an action which can be quite prohibitive to the country being able to take advantage of the growing Chinese market. Although Domnguez suggests that
the PRC has not been punitive toward those states that still recognize the Republic of China (Taiwan), [56] the legitimacy of this claim has to be brought into question for example in June 1996, China fought the extension of the UN mission in Haiti, to punish the Caribbean nation for its appeal for UN acceptance of Taiwan. [57] This incident showed that China is prepared to use its global clout to play spo iler and apply indirect pressure on countries to adopt its position. Similarly, Chinas experience with one -party rule has taught it the

importance of party-to-party relations in addition to state-to-state relations, further cementing the PRC by establishing a relationship based on goodwill and common understanding. Indeed by the start of 1998 the CCP had established
relations with almost all major political parties in the countries that were Taiwans diplomatic allies in Latin America, [5 8] further isolating the ROC. The effect on American interests Were the ROC to be deserted by its remaining allies in Latin America, the USA would be disadvantaged in attempting to maintain the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. A Taiwan that was not recognised by any state from the Americas, or Europe (with the exception of the Vatican) would not be seen as a genuine sovereign entity whose defence would be more important than the upkeep of good relations between China and the West. As Chinas economic and political

position in the world improves vis--vis both America and Taiwan, so might its ambitions. The U.S.A might find itself in a position where it could no longer withstand the diplomatic pressure to allow the PRC to conclude a settlement on Taiwan, perhaps by force. Taiwan is uniquely likely to escalate to nuclear war risk of miscommunication and misunderstanding is high Lowther, 3/16 (William, Taipei Times, citing a report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Taiwan could spark nuclear war: report, http://www.taipeitimes.com/News/taiwan/archives/2013/03/16/2003557211) Taiwan is the most likely potential crisis that could trigger a nuclear war between China and the US, a new academic
report concludes. Taiwan remains the single most plausible and dangerous source of tension and conflict between the US and China, says the 42-page report by the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). Prepared by the CSIS Project on Nuclear Issues and resulting from a year-long study, the report emphasizes that Beijing continues to be set on a policy to prevent Taiwans independence, while at the same time the US maintains the capability to come to Taiwans defense. Although tensions across the Taiwan Strait have subsided since both Taipei and Beijing embraced a policy of engagement in 2008, the situation remains combustible, complicated by rapidly diverging cross-strait military capabilities and persistent political disagreements, the report says. In a footnote, it quotes senior fellow at the US Council on Foreign Relations Richard Betts describing Taiwan as the main potential flashpoint for the US in East Asia. The report also quotes Betts as saying that neither Beijing nor Washington can fully control developments that might ignite a Taiwan crisis. This is a classic recipe for surprise, miscalculation and uncontrolled escalation, Betts wrote in a separate study of his own. The CSIS study says: For the foreseeable future Taiwan is the contingency in which nuclear weapons would most likely become a major factor , because the fate of the island is intertwined both with the legitimacy of the Chinese Communist Party and the reliability of US defense commitments in the Asia-Pacific region. Titled Nuclear Weapons and US-China Relations, the study says disputes in the East and South China seas appear unlikely to lead to major conflict between China and the US, but they do provide kindling for potential conflict between the two nations because the disputes implicate a number of important regional interests, including the interests of treaty allies of the US. The danger posed by flashpoints such as Taiwan, the Korean Peninsula and maritime demarcation disputes is magnified by the potential for mistakes, the study says. Although Beijing and Washington have agreed to a range of crisis management mechanisms, such as the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement and the establishment of a direct hotline between the Pentagon and the Ministry of Defense, the

bases for miscommunication and misunderstanding remain and draw on deep historical reservoirs of

suspicion, the report says. For example, it says, it is unclear whether either side understands what kinds of actions would result in a military or even nuclear response by the other party. To make things worse, neither side seems to believe the others declared policies and intentions, suggesting that escalation management , already a very uncertain endeavor, could be especially difficult in any conflict, it says. Although conflict mercifully seems unlikely at this point, the report concludes that it cannot be ruled out and may become increasingly likely if we are unwise or unlucky. The report says: With both sides possessing and looking set to retain formidable nuclear weapons arsenals, such a conflict would be tremendously dangerous and quite possibly devastating .

Cuban Economy 1AC Advantage __: Cuban Economy U.S. embargo makes drilling slow and ineffective now

Krauss & Cave, 12 (Clifford and Damien, New York Times, Cubas Prospects for an Oil-Fueled Economic Jolt Falter With Departure of Rig, 11/9, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/world/americas/rigs-departure-to-hamper-cubas-oilprospects.html)
Cubas hopes of reviving its economy with an oil boom have produced little more than three dry holes, persuading
foreign oil companies to remove the one deepwater rig able to work in Cuban waters so it could be used for more lucrative prospects elsewhere. The rig, which was built in China to get around the United States trade embargo, is expected to depart in the next few weeks. With no other rigs available for deepwater exploration, that means Cuba must now postpone what had become an abiding dream: a windfall that would save Cubas economy and lead to a uniquely Cuban utopia where the islands socialist system was paid for by oil sales to its capitalist neighbors. The Cuban oil dream is over and done with, at least for the next five years, said Jorge Pion, a former BP and Amoco executive who fled Cuba as a child but continues to brief foreign oil companies on Cuban oil pro spects. The companies have better prospects by going to Brazil, Angola and the U.S. Gulf. The lack of a quick find comes at a difficult time for Cuba. The effects of Hurricane Sandy, which destroyed more than 100,000 homes in eastern Cuba, are weighing down an economy that remains moribund despite two years of efforts by the Cuban government to cut state payrolls and cautiously encourage free enterprise on a small scale . Cuba

had hoped to become energy independent, after relying first on

Russia and now on

Venezuela for most of its oil. But with its drilling prospects dimming, experts say, Cuban officials may be pushed to accelerate the process of

economic opening. At the very least, it may embolden members of the bureaucracy looking for broader or faster changes in the economy. This could represent a crucial setback for the Cuban regime, said Blake Clayton, an energy fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. In the meantime, the government has mostly tried to put a positive spin on the disappointing drilling results and the decision of the rig operator to lease in other waters. Granma, the Communist Party newspaper, reported last week that while Venezuelas state oil firm had plugged its hole because it did not offer possibilities of commercial exploitation, the drilling had obtained valuable geological information. The Venezuelan firm was the last of three foreign oil companies to use the rig, after the Spanish company Repsol and the Malaysian company Petronas. The government said more exploration could be expected. The potential for Cubas oil reserves, like nearly everything involving Cuba, has been a matter of dispute. Cuban officials had predicted that oil companies would find 20 billion barrels of oil reserves off its northern coast. The United States Geological Survey has estimated Cuban oil reserves at 5 billion barrels, one quarter of the Cuban estimate. The best-case scenario for production, according to some oil experts, would be for Cuba to eventually become a medium-size producer like Ecuador. But as the three dry holes showed, far more exploration effort would be needed, and that presents a challenge for a country with limited resources and the hurdle of American sanctions. There are many offshore areas that are competing with Cuba for the attention of oil companies, particularly off the coasts of South America and

In Cubas case, the American embargo makes it far more difficult for companies seeking to explore Cuban waters. The Scarabeo 9, the rig set to depart, is the only one available that is capable of drilling in
East and West Africa.

deep waters and complies with the embargo. To get it built, Repsol, the Spanish oil giant, was forced to contract an Italian operator to build a rig in China to drill exploration wells. Cuban officials have also run into
environmental concerns in the United States. The prospect of drilling only 50 miles from the Florida Keys had worried ocean scientists, who warned that if the kind of blowout that occurred on the BP rig in 2010 in the Gulf of Mexico was repeated in Cuban waters, it could send oil spewing onto Florida coastlines in as little as three days. If the oil reached the Gulf Stream, the powerful current that passes through the area, oil could flow up the coast to Miami and beyond. Still, Cuba has been bullish about oil since plans for the rigs arrival were first made several years ago. Cuba produces a small amount of oil and relies on Venezuela to provide around 115,000 barrels a day at highly subsidized rates, in exchange for the services of Cuban doctors and other professionals. Venezuelan production has been sliding steeply in recent years, and Cuban officials have been unnerved by the health problems of Venezuelas president, Hugo Chvez, a crucial ally for the island.

Venezuelan cutoff is inevitable and devastates Cubas economy overnight offshore drilling solves CDA, 11 Center for Democracy in Americas, nonprofit devoted to changing U.S. policy towards the countries of the Americas, (CAs Cuba plans to drill in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. policy poses needless risks to our national interest, http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf)//MM 3. Cubas arrangement with Venezuela is unsustainable over the long-term. Cubas energy dependence on a single country is a significant political and economic risk, as it learned when it lost its access to Soviet oil. A change in Venezuelas government or policy could devastate Cubas economy overnight. Jorge Pion of Florida International University expresses
concerns about the durability of Cubas oil arrangement with Venezuela and the impact on Cuba and the United States if the relationship were to summarily change. As he told the CDA delegation, The political risk and strategic risk to Cuba and the United States is huge. What if Chavez loses an election, or loses power, or if Venezuela disconnects Cuba from oil for some other reason? That risk is not in the best interests of the United States or Cuba. 7 Additionally, the arrangement is controversial in both countries. Some Venezuelans, who oppose the Chavez governments close relationship with Cuba, claim that this is a waste of their countrys o il revenues. The oil for doctors program has also been controversial in Cuba. Cuban citizens complain it has depleted the supply of physicians in their country. According to MEDICC (Medical Education Cooperation with Cuba), about 20,000 Cuban family doctors provide health services and health education in medically underserved communities in Venezuela. 8 Cuba recognizes the risk of its dependence, and has engaged in diplomatic outreach to other allies (including Angola, Russia, Algeria, South Africa, and Brazil) that produce oil. But the better solution may lie offshore if supplies are recoverable and in amounts that meet Cubas own domestic requirements .

Venezuelan oil discount is unsustainable Maduro will be susceptible to domestic pressure to reduce aid

Keppel , 13 - Economist, writer, and producer with a focus on the Americas, MA International Affairs, Columbia University (Stephen, What Chvez's Death Means for Cuba, Venezuela and the U.S. ABC News, March 16, 2013, http://abcnews.go.com/ABC_Univision/chavezs-death-meanscuba-venezuela-us/story?id=18669003)

Upon hearing news of the death of Hugo Chvez, scores of Venezuelans gathered in cautious celebration in Doral, a South Florida community with the highest concentration of Venezuelans outside Venezuela. They are hoping that Chvez's passing will bring about change in their homeland. Others in the region were not as happy. Sure Chvez was politically influential in Latin America, but in many ways his economic influence was even greater especially with friendly countries like Cuba, Nicaragua, Ecuador, Argentina, Bolivia and a score of Caribbean nations that benefited from Venezuela's oil-discount program, PetroCaribe In the name of "economic solidarity," Chvez was extremely generous with these friends, offering oil at discounted rates and with flexible lending conditions. Nicaragua, for example, was known to pay for Venezuelan oil with shipments of beef, sugar, coffee, milk and even 19,000 pairs of pants. According to figures from the state-owned oil company PDVSA, in 2011 Venezuela sent 243,500 barrels of oil a day (or around 8 percent of its production) to 16 countries across Latin America. Yet the absence of Chavez and the potential drawdown of economic

support would have the biggest impact on Cuba. That country receives more than 100,000 barrels of discounted oil per day and billions of dollar each year in exchange for Cuban medical personnel, technology experts, political consultants and other "professionals." That's because Chvez had a special relationship with Cuba and the Castros. His relationships with other presidents were also often very personal. That approach may be difficult to sustain in his absence. Even if Nicolas Maduro Chvez's chosen replacement, wins the upcoming election, he will be more susceptible to domestic pressure to reduce Venezuelas foreign aid, given all the economic challenges at home. The Cubans have bad memories of the ending of Soviet patronage in the 1990s and are right to be worried about what the death

of Chvez may bring. Where will Cuba turn this time if Venezuelan aid dries up? Maybe the United States. That doesn't mean the U.S. government, however. Rather, Cuba would likely turn to the nearly two million Cubans living in this country. They are already sending around $2 billion a year back to the island in remittances. Already, Raul Castro seems to have been preparing to make the Cuban economy a little bit more flexible and open to investment, and the Obama administration has made it easier for Cubans in the U.S. to send money back home. Which brings us to Venezuela's financial situation. The truth is the economic state there has been uncertain and chaotic ever since Chavez got sick, and that is unlikely to change in the short term. There is supposed to be a new election, and it appears that Maduro will win. But he will face a tough economic situation. Plus, he lacks the charisma of Chvez and may not be

able to maintain popularity if things get tougher. Offshore oil development leads to Cuban political and economic stability

Pinon, 11 Visiting Research Fellow at the Latin American and Caribbean Centers Cuban Research Institute at FIU (Jorge, Spring, "Why the United States and Cuba Collaborate (and What Could Happen If They Don't)," casgroup.fiu.edu/pages/docs/2157/1306356964_Hemisphere_Vol._20.pdf)//SEP
If Cubas suspected but yet undiscovered hydrocarbon reserves are proven real, it will take between three and five years to develop them fully.
this occurs, significant Production volumes would have to reach more than 200,000 barrels per day to have the same positive economic impact currently derived from foreign oil subsidies. If

revenues from oil, natural gas and sugarcane ethanol would integrate Cuba into global and regional markets within the next five years. International oil companies such as Spains Repsol, Norways Statoil Norsk Hydro and Brazils
Petrobras are actively exploring Cubas Gulf of Mexico waters. Cuban authorities have invited United States oil companies to participate in developing the islands offshore oil and natural gas resources, but U.S. law does not allow this. Although US oil, oil equipment and service companies have the capital, technology and operational knowhow to explore, produce and refine Cubas potential reserves in a safe and responsible manner, the almost five-decade old unilateral political and economic embargo keeps them on the sidelines. Cuba currently

relies on heavily subsidized oil from Venezuela for two-thirds of its petroleum needs. This supply contributes to the Cuban governments ability to maintain a politically antagonistic and belligerent position towards the US. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 made Cuba aware of the political and economic risks and consequences of depending on a single source of imported oil. Only when Cuba diversifies suppliers and develops its offshore hydrocarbon resources, estimated by the United States Geological Survey at 5.5 million barrels of oil and 9.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, will it have the economic independence to consider political and economic reforms. It is in the US interest to develop a new policy toward the island based on constructive engagement to support the
emergence of a Cuban state in which Cubans themselves can determine the political and economic future of their country through democratic means. Cuba is about to embark on an 18-month oil exploration drilling program to validate the presence of recoverable hydrocarbon reserves. US support of such endeavors would be beneficial in the framework of a constructive engagement policy. The Deepwater Horizon drilling semi-submersible incident and the resulting catastrophic oil spill demonstrate the urgency of developing a policy of energy and environmental cooperation between the United States and Cuba. As Cuba develops its deepwater oil and natural gas potential, the possible consequences of a spill call for proactive planning by both countries to minimize or avoid an environmental disaster. To respond effectively to an oil-related marine accident, any company operating in Cuba would require immediate access to US oil services companies for the nearinstant technology and know-how needed to halt and limit damage to the marine environment. Obviously, the establishment of working relations between the US and Cuba in the area of marine environmental protection would assist enormously in the contingency planning and cooperation

necessary for an early and effective response to an oil spill. The United States and Cuba are already parties to a number of multilateral oil pollution agreements, such as the 1973 International Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) and the 1983 Convention for the protection and Development of the Marine Environment in the Wider Caribbean Region (Cartagena Convention). Both agreements address prevention of pollution of the marine environment by ships from operational or accidental causes. The 1990 International Convention on Oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Cooperation also offers a precedent for cooperation. The convention is designed to encourage and facilitate international cooperation and mutual assistance in preparing for and responding to major oil pollution incidents. Signatory nations are tasked with developing and maintaining adequate capabilities to deal with such an emergency. In the case of Cuba and the United States, the capabilities must be transnational, as there is no barrier to the movement of oil from one countrys waters to anothers. The United States, therefore, must develop appropriate regulatory and procedural frameworks for the free movement of equipment, personnel and expertise between the two countries as part of any oil spill response. The 1980 Agreement of Cooperation between the United States and Mexico Regarding Pollution of the Marine Environment by Discharges of Hydrocarbons and Other Hazardous Substances (MEXUS Plan) provides the foundation for a similar protocol with Cuba. This would include the establishment of joint response teams, coordinating roles, rapid incident notification mechanisms, joint operations centers and communication procedures, along with regular exercises and meetings. The United States government, irrespective of the current embargo, has the power to license the sale, lease or loan of emergency relief and reconstruction equipment and the travel of expert personnel to Cuba following an oil spill. Cubas long-term energy challenges will be a consequence of its future economic growth and rising standard of living within a market environment. This anticipated growth will depend largely on the development of a competitively priced, readily available and environmentally sound long-term energy plan. Cuban energy policy should embrace energy conservation, modernization of the energy infrastructure, and balance in sourcing oil/gas supplies and renewable energy sources that protect the islands environment. The country would benefit from the guidance of a variety of partners, including the United States.

Developing just a few wells solves Cuban dependence on Venezuela majority of the discovered oil will go to Cuba

Katusa, 11(Marin, 11/1, 321Energy, Will Offshore Oil Lubricate U.S.-Cuban Relations? ttp://www.321energy.com/editorials/casey/casey110111.html)//SEP
And yes,

finding and developing oil resources in Cuban waters would provide a major boost to the country's struggling economy and would help to reduce its total dependence on oil-rich, leftist ally Venezuela. Fidel Castro's close ally Hugo Chavez currently dispatches 120,000 barrels of oil a day to Cuba on very favorable financing terms. However, the arrangement is heavily dependent on the friendship between octogenarian Castro and cancer-stricken Chavez hardly a recipe for permanence. Cuba's oil contracts with Repsol and various other international partners probing its waters call for Cuba to get 60% of the oil, so a few good wells would make a marked difference for the Caribbean nation.

Luring investors now is key to Cuba securing new financing from creditors in exchange for future oil riches failure will cause them to look elsewhere for oil Haven, 12 (Paul, Huffington Post, Cuba Oil Production: Cuba Waits Anxiously for Oil Dreams to Materialize, 5/27, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/05/27/cuba-oilproduction_n_1549081.html)//SEP
"If oil is not found now I think it would be another five to 10 years before somebody else comes back and drills again," said Jorge Pinon, the former president of Amoco Oil Latin America and a leading expert on Cuba's energy prospects. "Not because
there is no oil, but because the pain and tribulations that people have to go through to drill in Cuba are not worth it when there are better and easier options in places like Angola, Brazil or the U.S. Gulf of Mexico."

A delay would be catastrophic for Cuba, where 80-year-old President Raul Castro is desperately trying to pull the economy out of the doldrums through limited free-market reforms, and has been forced to cut many of the subsidies islanders have come to expect in return for salaries of just $20 a month.
It could also leave the Communist-governed island more dependent on Venezuela, where President Hugo Chavez is ailing with cancer. Chavez provides Cuba with $3 billion worth of heavily subsidized oil every year, a deal that might evaporate if he dies or fails to win re-election in October. An oil find, on the other hand, would potentially improve Cuba's long-bitter relations with the United States, some analysts suggest. They say the U.S. oil industry could lobby Congress to loosen the embargo so it could get in on Cuba's oil game. At the very least, coordination between the Cold War enemies would be necessary to prepare for any spill that could coat beaches in the U.S. and Cuba with black goo. The Cuban government has not commented on Repsol's announcement May 18 that the first well came up dry, and declined to make any oil officials or experts available to be interviewed for this article. Next in line for using the drilling rig in Cuban waters is Malaysia's Petronas, which holds the rights to explore an area in the Florida Straits known as the Northbelt Thrust, about 110 miles (180 kilometers) southwest of Repsol's drill site. Wee Yiaw Hin, Petronas' executive vice president of exploration and production, told The Associated Press that drilling has begun and he expects results by the end of July. After that, two industry experts said, Repsol is under contract to drill a second well, though it could get out of the deal by paying a penalty to Saipem, the Italian company that owns the rig. Kristian Rix, a spokesman for Repsol in Madrid, said a decision on whether to sink another well was still being evaluated. Venezuela's PDVSA and Sonangol of Angola have options to drill next, but are under no obligation if they don't like their odds. While both countries are strong allies of Cuba, at $100 million a well, the decision to drill will likely be based solely on economics.

Even if oil is found, the Scarabeo-9 is under contract to power up its eight enormous thrusters and sail to Brazil after that, with no date set for its return to Cuba. The bottleneck highlights the difficulties Cuba faces, and why it could be well into the 2020s before the island sees any oil windfall. "Assuming they're successful in finding oil, to bring the oil to market will take years of development efforts," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with consulting firm Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. Once an exploratory well finds oil, companies generally drill between 10 and 20 additional wells nearby to get a sense of the reservoir's size. The process can take several years even under normal circumstances, and circumstances are not normal in Cuba. The Scarabeo-9 was built in Asia with less than 10 percent U.S.-made parts to avoid violating Washington's embargo, making it the only rig in the world that meets the requirement. That means no other rig could be used in Cuba without risking U.S. sanction, and the additional wells would have to be drilled by the rig one at a time, with each taking about 100 days to complete. At about three wells a year, it could take up to six years for this second phase - assuming the rig is available. After gauging a reservoir's size, an oil company then must assess whether the economics of a field make it a prime spot for exploitation, or whether to concentrate resources elsewhere. If exploitation does go forward, complicated equipment is required to pull oil from such depths. Several industry experts said the only country that produces the necessary apparatus is the United States, although Brazil and other countries are working to catch up. Unless they do, the oil could not be removed unless the U.S. embargo was lifted or altered. "A lot of folks are looking at the energy sector in Cuba because they are looking at a Cuba of five years from now, or 10 years from now," said Pinon. "So a lot of people are betting that either the embargo is going to be lifted, or the relationship between the U.S. and Cuba is going to improve in some way." Still, the benefits of hitting a gusher would be enormous for Cuba, and the impact could be felt long before any oil was pumped.

Because of the embargo, Cuba is shut off from borrowing from international lending institutions, and the island's own poor record of repayment has left most other creditors leery. Cuba, for instance, owes the Paris Club of creditor nations nearly $30 billion. An oil find could change the game, with Cuba using future oil riches as collateral to secure new financing, economists say. They point to China and Brazil as potential sources of new funding, but say neither is likely to put money into the island without reasonable confidence they will get their investment back

Cuban instability results in Latin American instability, terrorism, and democratic backsliding

Gorrell, 5 Lieutenant Colonel (Tim, CUBA: THE NEXT UNANTICIPATED ANTICIPATED STRATEGIC CRISIS? 3/18, http://www.dtic.mil/cgi-bin/GetTRDoc?AD=ADA433074)

Regardless of the succession, under the current U.S. policy, Cubas problems of a post Castro transformation only worsen. In addition to Cubans on the island, there will be those in exile who will return claiming authority. And there are remnants of the dissident community within Cuba who will attempt to exercise similar authority. A power vacuum or absence of order will create the conditions for instability and civil war Whether Raul or another successor from within the current government can hold power is debatable. However, that individual will nonetheless extend the current policies for an indefinite period, which will only compound the Cuban situation. When Cuba finally collapses anarchy is a strong possibilityif the U.S. maintains the wait and see approach. The U.S. then must deal with an unstable country 90 miles off its coast. In the midst of this chaos, thousands will flee the island. During the Mariel boatlift in 1980 125,000 fled the island.26 Many were criminals; this time the number could be several hundred thousand fleeing to the U.S., creating a refugee crisis. Equally important, by adhering to a negative containment policy, the U.S. may be creating its next series of transnational criminal problems. Cuba is along the axis of the drugtrafficking flow into the U.S. from Columbia. The Castro government as a matter of policy does not support the drug trade. In fact, Cubas actions have shown that its stance on drugs is more than hollow rhetoric as indicated by its increasing seizure of drugs 7.5 tons in 1995, 8.8 tons in 1999, and 13 tons in 2000.27 While there may be individuals within the government and outside who engage in drug trafficking and a percentage of drugs entering the U.S. may pass through Cuba, the Cuban government is not the path of least resistance for the flow of drugs. If there were no Cuban restraints, the flow of drugs to the U.S. could be greatly facilitated by a Cuba base of operation and accelerate considerably. In the midst of an unstable Cuba, the opportunity for radical fundamentalist groups to operate in the region increases. If these groups can export terrorist actibity from Cuba to the U.S. or throughout the hemisphere then the war against this extremism gets more complicated. Such activity could increase direct attacks and disrupt the economies, threatening the stability of the fragile democracies that are budding throughout the region. In light of a failed state in the region , the U.S. may be forced to deploy military forces to Cuba, creating the conditions for another insurgency. The ramifications of this action could very well fuel greater anti-American sentiment throughout the Americas. A proactive policy now can mitigate these potential future problems. U.S. domestic political support is also turning against
the current negative policy. The Cuban American population in the U.S. totals 1,241,685 or 3.5% of the population.28 Most of these exiles reside in Florida; their influence has been a factor in determining the margin of victory in the past two presidential elections. But this election strategy may be flawed, because recent polls of Cuban Americans reflect a decline for President Bush based on his policy crackdown. There is a clear softening in the Cuban-American community with regard to sanctions. Younger Cuban Americans do not necessarily subscribe to the hard-line approach. These changes signal an opportunity for a new approach to U.S.-Cuban relations. (Table 1) The time has come to look realistically at the Cuban issue. Castro will rule until he dies. The only issue is what happens then? The

U.S. can little afford to be distracted by a failed state 90 miles off its coast. The administration, given the present state of world affairs,
does not have the luxury or the resources to pursue the traditional American model of crisis management. The President and other government and military leaders have warned that the GWOT will be long and protracted. These warnings were sounded when the administration did not anticipate operations in Iraq consuming so many military, diplomatic and economic resources. There is justifiable concern that Africa and

the Caucasus region are potential hot spots for terrorist activity, so these areas should be secure. North Korea will continue to
be an unpredictable crisis in waiting. We also cannot ignore China. What if China resorts to aggression to resolve the Taiwan
situation? Will the U.S. go to war over Taiwan? Additionally, Iran could conceivably be the next target for U.S. pre-emptive action. These are known and potential situations that could easily require all or many of the elements of national power to resolve. In view of such global issues,

can the U.S. afford to sustain the status quo and simply let the Cuban situation play out? The U.S. is at a crossroads: should the policies of the past 40
years remain in effect with vigor? Or should the U.S. pursue a new approach to Cuba in an effort to facilitate a manageable transition to post-Castro Cuba?

Caribbean instability causes bioterrorism and LNG explosions

Bryan, 1 Director of the Caribbean Program, North/South Center & Stephen, Senior Fellow Council of Foreign Relations (Anthony T., Terrorism, Porous Borders, and Homeland Security: The Case for U.S.-Caribbean Cooperation, 10-21, http://www.cfr.org/publication/4844/terrorism_porous_borders_and _homeland_ security.html)
Terrorist acts can take place anywhere. The Caribbean is no exception. Already the linkages between drug trafficking and terrorism are clear in countries like Colombia and Peru, and such connections have similar potential in the Caribbean. The security of major industrial complexes in some Caribbean countries is vital. Petroleum refineries and major industrial estates in Trinidad, which host more than 100 companies that produce the majority of the worlds methanol, ammonium sulphate, and 40 percent of U.S. imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG), are vulnerable targets. Unfortunately, as experience has shown in Africa, the Middle East, and Latin America, terrorists are likely to strike at U.S. and European interests in Caribbean countries. Security issues

become even more critical when one considers the possible use of Caribbean countries by terrorists as bases from which to attack the U nited S tates. An airliner hijacked after departure from an airport in the northern Caribbean or the Bahamas can be
flying over South Florida in less than an hour. Terrorists can sabotage or seize control of a cruise ship after the vessel leaves a Caribbean port. Moreover, terrorists with false passports and visas issued in the Caribbean may be able to move easily through passport controls in Canada or the United States. (To help counter this possibility, some countries have suspended "economic citizenship" programs to ensure that known terrorists have not been inadvertently granted such citizenship.) Again, Caribbean countries are as vulnerable as anywhere else to the clandestine manufacture and deployment of biological weapons within national borders.

Single LNG tanker explosion is equal to fifty-five Hiroshima bombs outweighs nuclear war

Lovin,1(Amory B., Chief Scientist of the Rocky Mountain Institute, and L. Hunter Lovin, President National Capitalism and Co-Founder Rocky Mountain Institute, Brittle Power: Energy Strategy for National Security, http://verdilivorno.it/doc_gnl/198204_Brittle_Power_intro_GNL_note.pdf)
About nine percent of such a tankerload of LNG will probably, if spilled onto water, boil to gas in about five minutes. 3 (It does not matter how cold the water is; it will be at least two hundred twenty-eight Fahrenheit degrees hot- ter than the LNG, which it will therefore cause to boil violently.) The result- ing gas, however, will be so cold that it will still be denser than air. It will therefore flow in a cloud or plume along the surface until it reaches an ignition source. Such a plume might extend at least three miles downwind from a large tanker spill within ten to twenty minutes. 4 It might ultimately reach much fartherperhaps six to twelve miles. 5 If not ignited, the gas is asphyxiating. If ignited, it will burn to completion with a turbulent diffusion flame reminiscent of the 1937 Hindenberg disaster but about a hundred times as big . Such a fireball would burn everything within it, and by its radiant heat would cause thirddegree burns and start fires a mile or two away. 6 An LNG fireball can blow through a city, creating a very large number of ignitions and explosions across a wide area. No present or foreseeable equipment can put out a very large [LNG]... fire. 7 The energy content of a single standard LNG tanker (one hundred twenty-five thousand cubic meters) is equivalent to seven-tenths of a megaton of TNT, or about fifty-five Hiroshima bombs.

Plan Plan: The United States federal government should authorize companies to provide services for the development of Cuban offshore oil resources.

Solvency 1AC Contention__: Solvency President has the authority to license American companies to develop offshore oil

Pascual & Huddleston, 9 Carlos, VP and Director of Foreign Policy, Brookings Institute, and Vicki, Visiting Fellow (CUBA: A New policy of Critical and Constructive Engagement, April, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/reports/2009/4/cuba/0413_cuba.pdf)
Licensing U.S. companies to provide services for the development of Cuban offshore oil and gas would provide benefits to the United States and Cuba. (At this point it should be noted that the Secretary of Treasury has always had and contin - ues to have the authorityas embodied in OFAC regulationsto license any transaction found to be in the U.S. national interest. This power has been used over the past fifteen years by various republican and Democratic administrations to license a variety of commercial transactions between the United States and Cuba). The following are some of
the reasons we might wish to become engaged in developing Cubas offshore oil and gas. Firs t, if U.S. and other reputable companies are involved in Cubas offshore oil development it would reduce Cubas dependence on Venezuela for two-thirds of its oil imports. Second, it is preferable that U.S. oil companies with high standards of transparency develop these resources rather than, for example, Russias notoriously corrupt oligarchy. Third, U.S. influence in Cuba is likely to increase if U.S. companies have an economic relationship on the ground. Fourth, U.S. companies have the technology and expertise to develop Cubas offshore oil and

gas. Cuba welcomes U.S. investment in oil development

CDA, 11 Center for Democracy in the Americas, nonprofit devoted to changing U.S. policy towards the countries of the Americas, (As Cuba plans to drill in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. policy poses needless risks to our national interest, http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf)//AK
would welcome U.S. investment. At MINCEX, the staff discussed the impact of the embargo on Cubas access to capital. Ministry staff said the embargo is harmful to Cubas ability to attract foreign investments, capital, and technology. Cuban officials repeatedly emphasized that the country is open to any foreign investor, and that Havana would welcome U.S. investment subject to the same conditions it places on all foreign investors. According to a senior official in Cubas
6. Cuba diplomatic corps, when Cuba decided to drill off-shore in the Gulf of Mexico in the mid-1990s, the first letters sent by Cubas government to invite foreign concerns to participate went exclusively to U.S. energy companies. They declined interest, due to the embargo, and Cuba looked for partners elsewhere.

General licensing is key to ensuring companies have full access to U.S. technology and personnel in case of a spill

CDA, 11 - Center for Democracy in the Americas, nonprofit devoted to changing American policy towards the countries of the Americas, (9/9, Cuba Drilling and U.S. Policy, http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf) //AK
As Robert Muse and Jorge Pion said last year, the administration has regulatory authority to provide licenses and promulgate new regulations for any conceivable response to an environmental problem in Cuba.While the Cuban Assets Control Regulations administered by OFAC include a variety of prohibitions that generally bar U.S. private sector participation, involvement or cooperation in connection with the exploration or development of energy sector resources associated with Cuba, or related environmental concerns, OFAC retains discretionary authority to license such activities by U.S. persons where it is determined by the executive branch to be consistent with U.S. national interests. Such licensing determinations are generally within the scope of the authority of the President of the United States with respect to matters of U.S. foreign policy and national security By moving far beyond the meager licensing activity that has already taken place, the Obama administration could ensure that the international oil companies working with Cuba have full access to U.S. technology and personnel in order to prevent and/or manage a blowout.

Environment Advantage

I/L - Drilling Now Russia Russia will continue drilling projects will come back with a different ship Goodhue, 6/6 Economist and journalist

(David, http://www.keysnet.com/2013/06/06/487368/last-cuban-offshore-oil-project.html) //AK

The first company to work on the rig, Spains Repsol, closed its Cuban offices. And Petroleos de Venezuela, or PDVSA, is going through too many financial difficulties to invest again in the risky Straits, according to Pion. The area near the Bahamas where Zarubezhneft is exploring is much shallower around 2,000 feet below the surface as opposed to 6,000 feet in the Straits. This makes it a more attractive place for companies like Zarubezhneft to search for offshore fossil fuels. Valentina Matvienko,

speaker of the Russian Federation Council the countrys equivalent of the U.S. Senate pledged in a May interview with Cubas state-run Granma newspaper continued investment and involvement in Cubas offshore energy projects. We are currently negotiating a broad range of projects relating to energy, and Russian companies such as Zarubezhneft are actively involved in oil prospecting in Cuban waters, and this work is going to continue, Matvienko said. But the company might not use the Songa Mercur when it returns, according to oil industry sources. One of the reasons Zarubezhneft is leaving Cuba is because the rig was having equipment difficulties. Instead, Zarubezhneft may come back in a drill ship, a traditional seagoing vessel with oil-drilling capabilities.

I/L - Drilling Now Other Countries Many countries have oil lease agreements with Cuba

Rerurkar & Sullivan, 11 - Neelesh, Specialist in Energy Policy, and Mark, Specialist in Latin American Affairs (Congressional Research Service, November 28, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41522.pdf)//SEP Other foreign companies have five other lease agreements for offshore blocks in Cuba, and at least one more is being negotiated. Lease holders are conducting seismic surveys, and may be preparing for exploratory drilling. Apart from
Repsol, the companies are all state-owned. Some of the NOCs governments, including Brazil, Russia, and China, have recently made loans to Cuba to support development of infrastructure as well as energy, minerals, and agriculture sectors.18 separate from its consortium with Repsol, ONGC contracted for two additional blocks in 2006 (see Figure 2). It may be preparing to move from seismic analysis to exploratory drilling as it has already started soliciting bids for necessary equipment.19 Malaysias NOC, Petronas, has partnered with Russian NOC

Gazprom, in a contract on four blocks off the western coast of Cuba. (Gazprom and Petronas have also partnered to develop the Badra field in Iraq.20) They are studying seismic data and could begin drilling in 2012.21 Vietnams NOC, PetroVietnam, holds contracts for four offshore blocks west of Cuba.22 PetroVietnam may partner with Russian NOC
Zarubezhneft, which has separate contracts for onshore and near shore blocks. Venezuelas NOC, PdVSA, has a license to explor e four western offshore blocks. Finally, Angolas NOC, Sonangol, signed an agreement to operate two offshore blocks in December 2010.23 Chinese NOC, CNPC, is in negotiations for Cuban offshore blocks.24 Chinese companies have never previously drilled off Cubas coast, though CNPC does provide some onshore drilling services. (Even Scarabeo -9, though it was built in China, is neither owned nor leased by a Chinese company.) As mentioned above, CNPC is also helping Cuba refurbish its Cienfuegos refinery. Petrobras, Brazils NOC, had signed an agreement in 2008 for offshore block N37, off Cubas n orthern coast.25 Based on seismic data it collected as well as other company priorities, Petrobrasdecided to relinquish its contract in March 2011. Company statements indicated that it would rather focus on oil prospects in Brazil.26

I/L - Drilling Destroys Environment Widespread Cubas ecosystem is interconnected with the U.S. due to proximity ocean currents Whittle, 12, (Dan, EDFs Cuba Program Director for the Oceans Program,, 9/11/12, Bridging the Gulf Report: Preparing for Offshore Oil and Gas Exploration in Cuba http://blogs.edf.org/edfish/2012/09/11/bridging-the-gulf-report-preparing-for-offshore-oil-and-gasexploration-in-cuba/) The United States has a vested interest in the health of Cubas natural environment for an underlying reason: location, location, location. Aligning with the principle that nature knows no political borders, the United States shares extensive and important elements of biodiversity at large spatial scales with Cuba, Mexico, and the Bahamas, due to geographical proximity and prevailing ocean currents. Three major linked ocean currents in the Gulf Basinthe Gulf Loop Current, Florida Current, and the Gulf Streamcreate a highway in the sea that facilitates dispersal and exchange of diverse aquatic organisms and populations between Cuban and U.S. territorial waters . The most dominant current, the Gulf Loop,
is a current of warm water from the Caribbean that travels northward from the Yucatan Straits to the Florida Straits. The Gulf Loop creates a clockwise loop along the West Florida Shelf, where it becomes the Florida Current.7 After traveling eastward from the Gulf of Mexico through the Florida Straits, the Florida Current shifts northward to power the Gulf Stream, which travels along the U.S. East Coast and is deflected into the North Atlantic. The Gulf Loop naturally evolves, elongating to the north nearly to the coast of Louisiana before bending back on itself, forming a central gyre, which is then pushed off into the western Gulf

. The movement of these currents underscores the level of shared resources

and high connectivity between the United States and Cuba. Managing U.S. southeast fisheries downstream is incomplete if
managers neglect to protect the key spawning and nursery grounds upstream in the Caribbean, including Cuba, that are the lifeline for important elements of the multibillion-dollar commercial and recreational fisheries in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. Similarly, management (or mismanagement) of marine resources in the United States also impacts Cubas economy and environment given our reciprocal relationship. Cubas extensive coral reefs, seagrass meadows, and mangrove forests provide vital habitat for snapper, grouper, and other reef fishes that spawn to send larvae towards the United States. The shared Gulf of Mexico also provides spawning sites and foraging habitats for migratory species that are economically valuable to U.S. fisheries, including tunas, sharks, and billfishes. Other migratory species whose population numbers are imperiledsuch as the endangered Florida manatee, whale sharks (classified as vulnerable by the IUCN), endangered sea turtles such as the Hawksbill, and the highly depleted Atlantic bluefin tunatravel unimpeded between Cuban and U.S. waters. It is also likely that the two countries share an ancient deepwater coral ecosystem that encompasses more than 25,000 square milesranging as far north as North Carolinaand makes up one of the worlds largest known areas of healthy deep sea coral. In June 2010, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) approved a plan to ban the use of destructive bottom-trawling fishing gear in the U.S. South Atlantic portions of this ecosystem to safeguard the reefs and the commercial fisheries that rely on them.8 The interdependency of our ecosystemsand

the resulting economic ramificationsreinforces the notion that environmental cooperation between the United States and Cuba is an imperative. Drilling causes catastrophic oil spills impacts hundreds of miles of beaches

Allen, 12 (Greg, NPR, U.S. Watches Closely As Oil Drilling Begins Off Cuba, 2/13, http://www.npr.org/2012/02/13/146635957/u-s-watches-closely-as-oil-drilling-begins-off-cuba)
There are big plans for oil exploration in the Caribbean, not far off the coast of Florida. A Spanish company recently began
drilling in Cuban waters just 55 miles from Key West. The well is the first of several exploratory wells planned in Cuba and the Bahamas. The drilling has officials and researchers in Florida scrambling to make plans for how they'll respond in case of a spill. The U.S. currently doesn't allow any drilling for oil off its Atlantic coast or in the eastern Gulf of Mexico. One reason is what's at stake. Florida's tourism-based economy depends on its beaches, fishing and clear Caribbean water. Environmental Concerns The U.S. ban on drilling off of Florida, however, doesn't affect America's Caribbean neighbors. The exploratory well being drilled off of Cuba has many here concerned, including people like Richard Dodge. Dodge is the dean of Nova Southeastern University's Oceanographic Center in Dania Beach, near Fort Lauderdale, and what he's really concerned about is coral. At the school, Dodge and his graduate students raise staghorn coral in outdoor saltwater tanks. Live coral grow in the crystal-clear water, some just finger length. "These are relatively new ones that we're starting out," Dodge says. "But over here, these are ones we'll be transplanting to the wild." In another tank, large branches of coral will soon be used to help restore damaged reefs. Florida is home to more than three-quarters of the nation's coral reefs and they haven't been doing so well. Development and warming oceans have already weakened many. On a map, Dodge points out the location of what he believes is an even bigger potential threat the spot where Cuba has approved offshore oil drilling. "The site that will be drilled," he says, "is only about 50 miles from Key West." The rig drilling off Cuba's northern coast is operating in water that is more than a mile deep. But it's not the depth that concerns Dodge. In the case of a blowout, it's the operation's proximity to the Gulf Stream. "We're worried that it could get into that stream fast and therefore, within days, impact our coastal ecosystem and coastline," Dodge says. A spill could potentially affect hundreds of miles of

beaches, mangroves and estuaries from the Keys to Palm Beach. Dodge and other marine scientists in Florida are asking the
federal government to fund research that would help identify the resources most at risk, and develop guidelines to protect them. Embargo Could Complicate Cleanup Complicating matters is the fact that this new well is being drilled in the waters of a country that's under a

strict U.S. embargo. Unless they apply for and receive special permission from the government, U.S. companies are banned from doing any work on the well even if there's a spill.

I/L Drilling Destroys Environment - Modeling Oil spill destroys marine ecosystem modeling proves

ORR, 12 (Office of Response and Restoration, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Getting Ready for Offshore Oil Drilling in Cuba and the Bahamas, 4/27, http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/about/media/getting-ready-offshore-oil-drilling-cuba-andbahamas.html)
For the past year, NOAA and the U.S. Coast Guard have been studying the possible threats that new offshore oil drilling activity near the Florida Straits and the Bahamas pose to Florida. For example, the proximity of Cuba's oil fields to U.S. waters has raised a lot of concerns about what would happen if a spill like the 2010 Deepwater Horizon/BP oil well blowout happened. If a large oil spill did occur in the waters northwest of Cuba, currents in the Florida Straits could carry the oil to U.S. waters and coastal areas in Florida. However, a number of factors, like winds or currents, would determine where any oil slicks might go. NOAA's National Ocean Service has more information about how we're preparing for worst-case scenarios there: The study focuses on modeling the movement of oil in water to predict where, when, and how oil might reach U.S. shores
given a spill in this region of the ocean. Models help to determine the threat to our coasts from a potential spill by accounting for many different variables, such as the weathering processes of evaporation, dispersion, photo-oxidation, and biodegradationall of which reduce the amount of oil in the water over time. Currents and winds also play a role in determining where oil will move in water . For example, there are three major currents that would dominate movement of spilled oil near the Florida Straits : Loop Current, Florida Current, and the Gulf Stream. If oil did reach U.S. waters, marine and coastal resources in southern Florida could be at risk, including coral reefs and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary , located north of the Cuban drilling sites. We'll be watching the drilling activity there very carefully. If a spill does happen, NOAA will be ready to share our scientific expertise on oil spill response with the U.S. Coast Guard.

I/L Spill Destroys Environment Coral Reef Oil spill destroys Floridas coral reefs

Goodbody-Gringley et al. 1/9 Researcher at Mote Marine Laboratory (Gretchen, Toxicity of Deepwater Horizon Source Oil and the Chemical Dispersant, Corexit 9500, to Coral Larvae. PLoS ONE 8(1): e45574. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0045574)//MM
The explosion of the Deepwater Horizon oil rig in April 2010 resulted in the release of over 760 million liters of Louisiana crude oil into the Gulf of Mexico, thus constituting one of the greatest marine disasters in U.S. history [30]. Mitigation of the spill with dispersant chemicals was effective in reducing the magnitude of the offshore oil slick, however it is plausible that a significant portion of petroleum

toxicants have been absorbed into the water column as a result. Much concern has arisen regarding the potential for oil pollution to reach coral reefs, particularly those in the Florida Keys that may be impacted by oil originating in the Gulf of Mexico and arriving via offshore currents. Coral reefs worldwide have undergone drastic declines in the last several decades
[31], [32]. This is particularly evident in the Caribbean, where coral cover has been reduced by roughly 80% since 1975 [33]. In the Florida Keys, coral reefs have been affected by anthropogenic and environmental impacts including pollution, overfishing, eutrophication, coastal development, disease, and climate change related bleaching among others. As a result, coral mortality in this region is unsustainably high [34] and substantially increased in 2010, following a cold-water event [35]. Such drivers have caused a dramatic shift in the Florida Keys reef ecosystem from a benthic community dominated by scleractinian corals to one overgrown with macroalgae [36]. With the advent of oil drilling off the coast of

Cuba and our limited ability to be able to respond to it, coupled with the current fragile state of coral species in the Florida Keys, it is imperative that the potential impacts of oil pollution on Caribbean reef-building corals be understood at all life-history stages. This study found settlement and survival of P. astreoides and M. faveolata planulae decreased significantly following exposure to increased concentrations of DWH crude oil, weathered oil, WAF, CEWAF, and dispersant Corexit 9500, with higher concentrations of CEWAF and Corexit 9500 resulting in settlement failure and complete larval mortality. The demonstrated effects of pollution by DWH crude oil and the dispersant Corexit 9500 on P. astreoides and M. faveolata planulae strongly suggest that the use of dispersants to mitigate oil spills in the vicinity of coral reefs should be avoided.

I/L Spill Destroys Environment Impact Immediate

Environmental risk is immediate once first drill bit hits the seabed

CDA, 11 - Center for Democracy in the Americas, nonprofit devoted to changing American policy towards the countries of the Americas, (9/9, Cuba Drilling and U.S. Policy, http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf) //AK

An environmental problem could arise as soon as the first drill bit penetrates the sea bed and the risks increase from there. As Lee Hunt of the International Association of Drilling Contractors (IADC) told us, If they encounter an undetected pocket of natural gas, you can end up with a rig on fire, and a limited oil spill. Once the drilling takes place at 5,000, 6,000, or 7,000 feet, and youre finding a substantial quantity of hydrocarbons, if you cannot control the pressure, then an oil spill of greater proportions becomes a possibility. It can be managed [if the proper tools and equipment are available].Some of the drilling of exploratory wells over 20112012 will take place in waters deeper than BPs Macondo well and within 50 miles of Floridas beaches.This raises alarms among some in the scientific community. As the New York Times reported, Ocean scientists warn that a well blowout similar to the BP disaster could send oil spewing onto Cuban beaches and then the Florida Keys in as little as three days. If the oil reached the Gulf Stream, a powerful ocean current that passes through the region, oil could flow up the coast to Miami and beyond.

I/L Brink -Florida Coral Reef Coral reef collapse inevitable Guardian 12- writer for environment newspaper (The Guardian, Caribbean coral reefs face collapse, 9/9/12, http://www.guardian.co.uk/ environment/2012/sep/10/caribbean-coral-reefscollapse-environment) Caribbean coral reefs which make up one of the world's most colourful, vivid and productive ecosystems are on the verge of collapse, with less than 10% of the reef area showing live coral cover.With so little growth left, the reefs are in danger of utter devastation unless urgent action is taken, conservationists warned. They said the drastic loss was the result of severe environmental problems, including over-exploitation, pollution from agricultural run-off and other sources, and climate change. The decline of the reefs has been rapid: in the 1970s, more than 50% showed live coral cover, compared with 8% in the newly completed survey. The scientists who carried it out warned there was no sign of the rate of coral death slowing. Coral reefs are a particularly valuable part of the marine ecosystem because they act as nurseries for younger fish, providing food sources and protection from predators until the fish have grown large enough to fend better for themselves. They are also a source of revenue from tourism and leisure.

I/L Florida =Biodiversity Hotspot Coral reefs are the rainforests of the sea responsible for staggering numbers of species Knowlton et al., 10Nancy, Center for Marine Biodiversity and Conservation, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California San Diego (Coral Reef Biodiversity. Life in the world's oceans: diversity, distribution, and abundance. Chichester: Wiley-Blackwell Pub., p. 65]//MM Coral reefs are often called the rainforests of the sea , but not because of their vastness. Being largely limited to warm shallow
waters, their extent is surprisingly small- in total only 260,000-600,000lcm:, or approximately 5% that of rainforests, less than 0. l% of the earth's surface, or 0.2% of the ocean`s surface (Realm-Kudla l997) and thus smaller in total land area than France. One might therefore think that assessing the diversity of coral reefs would be far easier than for some of the other realms geographic regions, and taxonomic groups that make up the 14 field projects of the Census of Marine Life that concern ocean life today. Yet coral reefs are the most diverse marine habitat per unit area, and perhaps the most diverse marine habitat overall - the deep sea being the only other contender, in part because of its huge area. As with rainforests, most of this diversity is not found in the organisms that create the three-dimensional structure of reefs - there are in fact, fewer than 1,000 species of stony corals (scleractinians) that build reefs (Cairns 1999). Rather, the

multitude of small organisms living with corals - the equivalent of the insects in the forest - is responsible for the staggering numbers of species associated with reefs.

Impact Biod Loss=Extinction

Biodiversity loss guarantees multiple scenarios for extinction Takacs, 96 - Environmental Humanities Professor at CSU Monterey Bay (David, The Idea of Biodiversity: Philosophies of Paradise pg. 200-01)//IK
So biodiversity keeps the world running. It has value and of itself, as well as for us. Raven, Erwin, and Wilson oblige us to think about the value of biodiversity for our own lives. The Ehrlichs rivet -popper trope makes this same point; by eliminating rivets, we play Russian roulette with global ecology and human futures: It is likely that destruction of the rich complex of species in the Amazon basin could trigger rapid changes in global climate patterns. Agriculture remains heavily dependent on stable climate, and human beings remain heavily dependent on food. By the end of the century the extinction of perhaps a million species in the Amazon basin could have entrained famines in which a billion human beings perished. And if our species is very unlucky, the famines could lead to a thermonuclear war, which could extinguish civilization. 13 Elsewhere Ehrlich uses different particulars with no less drama: What then will happen if the current decimation of organic diversity continues? Crop yields will be more difficult to maintain in the face of climatic change, soil erosion, loss of dependable water supplies, decline of pollinators, and ever more serious assaults by pests. Conversion of productive land to wasteland will accelerate; deserts will continue their seemingly inexorable expansion. Air pollution will increase, and local climates will become harsher. Humanity will have to forgo many of the direct economic benefits it might have withdrawn from Earth's wellstocked genetic library. It might, for example, miss out on a cure for cancer; but that will make little difference. As ecosystem services falter,

mortality from respiratory and epidemic disease, natural disasters, and especially famine will lower life expectancies to the point where cancer (largely a disease of the elderly) will be unimportant. Humanity will bring upon itself consequences depressingly similar to those expected from a nuclear winter. Barring a nuclear conflict, it appears that civilization will disappear some time before the end of the next century - not with a bang but a whimper.

Impact Hotspot Destruction=Extinction Destruction of biodiversity hotspots leads to extinction

Nautiyal & Nidamanuri, 10 Sunil, Centre for Ecological Economics and Natural Resources at Institute for Social and Economic Change, and Rama Rao, Department of Earth and Space Sciences at Indian Institute of Space Science and Technology (Conserving Biodiversity in Protected Area of Biodiversity Hotspot in India: A Case Study, International Journal of Ecology and Environmental Sciences, 36 (2-3): 195-200, 2010)
The hotspots are the worlds most biologically rich areas hence recognized as important ecosystems not important only for the rich biodiversity but equally important for the human survival as these are the homes for more than 20% of the
worlds population. India got recognition of one of the mega-diversity countries of world as the country is home of the two important biodiversity hotspots: the Himalaya in north and the Western Ghats in the southern peninsula. Policy makers and decision takers have recognized the importance of biodiversity (flora and fauna) and this has resulted to segregate (in the form of protected areas) the rich and diverse landscape for biodiversity conservation. An approach which leads towards conservation of biological diversity is good efforts but such approaches should deal with humans equally who are residing in biodiversity hotspots since time immemorial. In this endeavor, a study was conducted in Nagarahole National Park of Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, in Karnataka. Our empirical studies reveal that banning all the human activities in this ecosystem including agriculture, animal husbandry has produced the results opposite to the approach multiple values of national park. To monitor the impact, existing policies have been tested from an economic and ecological view-point. Unfortunately, the local livelihoods (most of them belongs to indigenous tribes) in the area have received setbacks due to the implementation of the policies, though unintentionally. However, the ecological perspective is also not showing support for the approach and framework of the current policies in the hotspots. Satellite data showed that the temporal pattern of ecosystem processes has been changing. An integrated approach for ecosystem conservation and strengthening local institutions for sustainable ecosystem management in such areas is therefore supported by this study.

Hotspots are key to future life on the planet

Kunich, 1 Associate Professor of Law, Roger Williams University School of Law (John, 52 Hastings L.J. 1149, Lexis)
It is rather well known, even beyond the scientific community, that many of the world's species have either gone extinct or are on the road to extinction. It is much less well known, but equally important, that enormous numbers of these species are confined to a few hotspots" of biodiversity, far beyond the norm for the average region of comparable size. These hotspots are the key to the future of life on this planet. To understand why, we must first examine the degree of risk to which earth's biodiversity is exposed today.

Solvency U.S. Tech/Expertise Key US expertise is key to environmental protection foreign countries lack resources and experience CDA 11 (Center for Democracy in the Americas, As Cuba plans to drill in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. policy poses needless risks to our national interest, 2011, http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf) 15. Cubas environmental plan relies on the competence of its foreign partners. Cubas environmental scheme is developed; they have laws and procedures in place. But the offshore approach depends on their partners doing the right thing and on participants obeying
international standards. Jorge Pion lists the qualifications of Cubas partners as follows: Indias ONGC discovered the deep water Bombay High field and is well experienced in deep water operations, the same with Malaysias PETRONAS. Repsol finished at the end of last year (2009) the Buckskin project, a 28,000-plus feet deep well in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico about 200 miles south of Houston. Petrobras and Statoil are probably the most experienced. PetroVietnam is a partner with Conoco in the China Sea and they operate the deep water White Tiger field. The only one with no deep water experience is PDVSA. But remember most if not all of the drilling operations are to be conducted by the owner/operators of the leased semi-submersibles...not by the holders of the concessions. 46 That sa id, Lee Hunt reminded us: Companies

preparing to work in Cuba have adequate resources but not comparable to the combined U.S. government and industry resources that were available in the Gulf to manage the Macondo spill. 47 A foreign diplomat provided our delegation with one concerning evaluation. He said some of Cubas partners see Cuba as something of a laboratory for gaining experience in deep water. 16. Cubas officials frankly admit to familiar trade-offs in their environ - mental practices. When
our delegation met with staff at the Ministry of Foreign Investment (MINCEX), we asked about the impact of the BP spill on Cu bas goal of promoting direct foreign investment in the energy area and whether it diminished the zeal of investors or Cubafor deep water drilling. The staff replied: No, not at all. We continue to work with foreign inves - tors to sign agreements for the prospecting of oil on the high seas. The rigs working now continue. But we are much stricter in those areas to avoid what happened with BP. We have not changed regulations. Our regulations include some controls. We have moved to strengthen the controls without making everyones life impossible. There is a balance: Develop tourism, increase tourist arrivals; Increase oil. Protect the fisheries. 48 The s taff at MINBAS made a similar point. One challenge they related was the need to protect the beaches of Varadero, a major tourist attraction, which is also an important place for the oil and gas industry. While Cuba has a government structure and tough laws in place, it faces its own limits in experience and resources as well as complications in balancing economic and environmental priorities. In addition, because

of obstacles raised by the embargo, there are limits to what Cuba can do internationally to raise its environmental standards. 17. The U.S. embargo impinges on Cubas ability to provide maximal environmental protectionand is counter-productive to U.S. interests. The embargo prevents Cuba from having adequate access to the range of tools needed to drill safely or respond to emergencies should one develop. The embargo restricts Cubas access to knowledge and associations that would help it plan for or react to a spill. The embargo prevents meaningful participation by U.S. private sector firms in planning for reaction, contain - ment, or remediation efforts. While licenses allowing otherwise prohibited U.S. participation in such activities can be granted by OFAC to address exigent circumstances on a discretionary basis under the U.S. sanctions regulations, the embargo has forced Cuba to seek access to drilling equipment and support by convoluted means. 49 U.S. policy also subjects the adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Straits to entirely different regulatory schemes, leaving Florida with significantly less than adequate resources. Finally, the policy limits the ability of the U.S. to plan for disasters like the
BP spill or to cooperate with Cuba in anticipation of them.

US expertise and proximity are key to halting Cuban oil spills Pinon and Muse, 10 Jorge, Visiting Research Fellow with the Cuban Research institute at Florida international University and former president of amoco oil Latin America, and Muse, Washington, D.C.-based attorney with long and substantial experience in U.S.-Cuba legal matters. Both are advisors to the Brookings institution task Force on U.S.-Cuba Relations (Coping with the Next Oil Spill: Why U.S.-Cuba Environmental Cooperation is Critical, Brookings Institute, 5/10, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2010/5/18%20oil%20spill%20cuba%20pinon/0518_oil_spi ll_cuba_pinon.pdf) To respond effectively to an oil-related marine accident, any company operating in or near Cuban territorial waters will require immediate access to the expertise and equipment of U.s. oil companies and their suppliers. They are best positioned to provide immediately the technology and know-how needed to halt and limit the damage to the marine environment. obviously, the establishment of working relations between the United states and Cuba to facilitate marine
environmental protection is the first step in the contingency planning and cooperation that will be necessary to an effective response and early end to an oil spill. A good framework for such practical cooperation is the 1990 international Convention on oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Cooperation. The Convention is designed to encourage and facilitate international cooperation and mutual assistance in preparing for and responding to major oil pollution incidents. signatory nations are charged with developing and maintaining adequate capabilities to deal with such an emergency. in the case of Cuba and the United states, those capabilities must be transnational because there is no barrier to the movement of oil from one countrys waters to anothers. Cuba and the United states are also members of the interna tional Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) adopted in 1973. The MARPoL Convention is the main international convention covering prevention of pollution of the marine environment by ships from operational or accidental causes. The 1983 Convention for the Protection and Development of the Marine environment in the Wider Caribbean Region (Cartagena Convention) is another comprehensive umbrella agreement that provides the legal framework for cooperative regional and national actions to protect the marine environment. so, the commitment to marine environmental cooperation already exists at the often aspirational level of international accords. What is needed now is

for the United states and Cuba to develop appropriate regulatory and procedural protocols that ensure the free movement of equipment and expertise between the two countries that will be indispensable to a satisfactory response to a future oil spill. establishing specific protocols cannot wait because nothing in U.s.-Cuba relations is ever simple. for example, disaster response coordination between Cuba and the United states will involve various government departments such as the environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Coast Guard and the Department of Commerce because U.s.-origin equipment requires licenses for even temporary export to Cuba. The allocation of responsibilities and the development of interagency cooperation will take time. That luxury exists now, but will end very soon when the first drill bit hits the Cuban seabed.

U.S. deepwater technology is superior to other international companies Rogers, 12 Bacevich Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, focusing on science, technology, and national security (Will, Western Hemisphere Happenings: Cubas Continued Quest for
Offshore Oil December 17, 2012, http://www.cnas.org/blogs/naturalsecurity/2012/12/western -hemispherehappenings-cuba-s-continued-quest-offshore-oil.html)
With fresh memories of the Gulf Coast Deepwater Horizon accident, U.S. government officials including the U.S. Coast Guard have been increasingly worried about offshore oil drilling in non-U.S. waters that could impact the U.S. coast if an accident occurs. Increased activity in Cuban waters is a particular concern for U.S. officials. A March 2012 The Washington Post report noted that Cubas capacity to respond to an offshore oil spill is extremely limited, with only 5 percent of the resources needed to contain a spill approaching the size of the Deepwater Horizon disaster. These concerns have also raised the question of how the United States could respond to an oil spill in Cuban waters given the state of U.S.-Cuba relations, including export restrictions that prohibit U.S. companies from providing equipment or otherwise performing response functions that could be construed as aiding the Cuban government. In particular, the half-century old Cuban embargo obliges any company operating in Cuba to use only equipment that contains less than 10 percent U.S.-made parts in order to avoid sanctions. This means that companies operating in Cubas deepwater may not necessarily be using the most sophisticated or the safest tools and techniques shared by U.S. drilling companies. This might not be a concern in shallow water (several hundreds of feet deep), but in ultra deep water (depths beyond 1,500 meters), U.S. companies have a comparative advantage over many other international drilling companies. Moreover, deepwater drilling remains risky, even for U.S. companies. And while Zarubezhneft plans to drill in shallower water for its next project, it is still drilling in deep water: 6,500 meters. Given that Washington does not maintain official diplomatic ties with Havana, it is unclear how the United States and Cuba would cooperate around an oil spill that could have economic and environmental implications for U.S. coastal communities, and it is something that should be a concern for U.S. officials as drilling continues off Cubas coast.

US expertise and proximity are key to halting Cuban oil spills Pinon and Muse, 10 Jorge, Visiting Research Fellow with the Cuban Research institute at Florida international University and former president of amoco oil Latin America, and Muse, Washington, D.C.-based attorney with long and substantial experience in U.S.-Cuba legal matters. Both are advisors to the Brookings institution task Force on U.S.-Cuba Relations (Coping with the Next Oil Spill: Why U.S.-Cuba Environmental Cooperation is Critical, Brookings Institute, 5/10, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2010/5/18%20oil%20spill%20cuba%20pinon/0518_oil_spi ll_cuba_pinon.pdf) To respond effectively to an oil-related marine accident, any company operating in or near Cuban territorial waters will require immediate access to the expertise and equipment of U.s. oil companies and their suppliers. They are best positioned to provide immediately the technology and know-how needed to halt and limit the damage to the marine environment. obviously, the establishment of working relations between the United states and Cuba to facilitate marine
environmental protection is the first step in the contingency planning and cooperation that will be necessary to an effective response and early end to an oil spill. A good framework for such practical cooperation is the 1990 international Convention on oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Cooperation. The Convention is designed to encourage and facilitate international cooperation and mutual assistance in preparing for and responding to major oil pollution incidents. signatory nations are charged with developing and maintaining adequate capabilities to deal with such an emergency. in the case of Cuba and the United states, those capabilities must be transnational because there is no barrier to the movement of oil from one countrys waters to anothers. Cuba and the United states are also members of the international Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) adopted in 1973. The MARPoL Convention is the main international convention covering prevention of pollution of the marine environment by ships from operational or accidental causes. The 1983 Convention for the Protection and Development of the Marine environment in the Wider Caribbean Region (Cartagena Convention) is another comprehensive umbrella agreement that provides the legal framework for cooperative regional and national actions to protect the marine environment. so, the commitment to marine environmental cooperation already exists at the often aspirational level of international accords. What is needed now is for the United states and Cuba to develop appropriate regulatory and procedural protocols that ensure the free movement of equipment and expertise between the two countries that will be indispensable to a satisfactory response to a future oil spill. establishing specific protocols cannot wait because nothing in U.s.-Cuba relations is ever simple. for example, disaster response coordination between Cuba and the United states will involve various government departments such as the environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Coast Guard and the Department of Commerce because U.s.-origin equipment requires licenses for even temporary export to Cuba. The allocation of responsibilities and the development

U.S. is very experienced in responding to spills handles more than 100 spills every year NOAA,6/28 (Oil and Chemical Spills US Department of Commerce and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , 2013 http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/oil-and-chemical-spills)//EB Every year NOAA responds to more than a hundred oil and chemical spills in U.S. waters, which threaten life, property, and public natural resources. Spills into our coastal waters, whether accidental or intentional, can harm people and the environment and substantially disrupt marine transportation with potential widespread economic impacts. The Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R) is charged with responding to oil spills, chemical accidents, and other emergencies
in coastal areas. Under the National Contingency Plan, NOAA is responsible for providing scientific support to the Federal On-Scene Coordinator for oil and hazardous material spills. To support this mandate, OR&R provides 24-hour, seven-day-a-week response

to

spills.

Solvency Dispersants Solve- Generally

Dispersants solve scientific consensus supports environmental benefit Uzoigwe and Okpokwasili, 12 Department of Microbiology, University of Port Harcourt (C. I. and G. C., Biodegradation of oil spill dispersants in natural aquatic ecosystem, International Journal of Physical Sciences, 10/9/12, http://www.academicjournals.org/ijps/PDF/pdf2012/9Oct/Uzoigwe%20and%20Okpokwasili.pdf)//ER There is growing acceptance worldwide that use of dispersants to counter the effects of oil spill offers many advantages and can often result in a net environmental benefit when considered in relation to other response options. A major reason for this growing support and increased reliance on dispersants is the advent of improved dispersant products that are low in toxicity to marine life and more effective at dispersing heavy and weathered oils; oils previously believed to be undispersible. However, the observation from this study has revealed that ecotoxicological analysis of these dispersants should be carried out before field application since some of them are not completely biodegradable.

Solvency Dispersants Solve No Toxicity Dispersants solve toxicity last for just a few hours no long-term environmental damage Nedwed et al 12 Tim Nedwed, PhD, ExxonMobil Upstream Research Compan; Tom Coolbaugh, PhD, ExxonMobil Research and Engineering; Greg Demarco, ExxonMobil Refining and Supply (Tim, The Value of Dispersants for Offshore Oil Spill Response, Offshore Technology Conference, One Petro, 4/30/12 to 5/3/12, http://www.onepetro.org.proxy.lib.umich.edu/mslib/servlet/onepetropreview?id=OTC-23359-MS)//ER This paper provides a review of the primary oil spill response options, a detailed discussion that addresses misperceptions and misunderstandings about dispersants and their use, and a description of dispersant use during the Deepwater Horizon incident including the important health and safety aspects of subsea dispersant injection. The information provided will support the use of dispersants as a primary response tool for large offshore oil spills when the goal is to minimize environmental harm. Introduction The primary goal of any oil spill response operation should be to minimize environmental harm. Although one expectation may be the complete physical containment and removal of oil from the environment, this is often not possible (especially with large offshore spills) due to physical limitations of mechanical recovery systems. In fact, recovery operations during previous offshore spills only collected a small fraction of the spilled oil even under ideal conditions (ITOPF Handbook, 2010). The Deepwater Horizon incident was no exception, with estimates indicating that only 3% of the oil was mechanically recovered (NOAA Oil Budget, 2010). Relying solely on mechanical response measures for large offshore spills may, therefore, result in less effective protection of the environment. Recognition of the significant limitations of mechanical recovery has led to development of alternative response toolsone of which is oil spill dispersants. Oil spill dispersants facilitate removal of oil from the environment by enhancing the natural biodegradation process. Dispersants rapidly break up a surface slick into micron-sized droplets that move into the water column. This provides naturally occurring oil degrading bacteria greater access to the oil by creating a dilute mixture of oil-inwater rather than a thick surface accumulation. Fortunately, oil degrading bacteria are present in all marine environments, having evolved to degrade oil released by natural seeps (Margesin and Schinner, 2001; Prince and Clark, 2004). Dispersed oil rapidly dilutes (French McCay and Payne, 2001; French McCay et al., 2006; McAuliffe et al., 1980; Cormack and Nichols, 1977; Daling and Indrebo, 1996), and concentrations above known toxicity thresholds do not persist for more than a few hours after effective dispersant application. Thus the potential for acute impacts to the environment from dispersed oil is limited in duration and space. In contrast, a surface slick has the potential to impact marine mammals and birds for many days and strand on sensitive shorelines. The most sensitive areas in many marine environments are marine marshes and swamps. These areas can take years to decades to recover (Sell et al., 1993) once impacted by surface slicks. Dispersants solve concentration issues only a problem in shallow water Fiocco and Lewis, 99 (Robert and Alun, Oil spill dispersants, IUPAC, 1999, http://pac.iupac.org/publications/pac/pdf/1999/pdf/7101x0027.pdf)//ER The function of dispersants is to greatly enhance the rate at which oil is removed from the sea surface; it is transferred as ne droplets into the water column, where it can then more readily biodegrade. The potential environmental effects of doing this must be compared to the likely effects of permitting the oil to remain on the sea surface for a much longer time. The key issue in any spill response should not be whether there will be any environmental impact from using the response, but how to minimise the overall impact of the oil spill. Successful use of modern, low toxicity dispersants causes a temporary increase in the dispersed oil concentration in the water column. Any marine organisms that are present in the locality may be exposed to locally elevated dispersed oil concentrations. A signicant amount of data are available regarding t he dispersed oil concentrations and exposure duration that can be expected after dispersant use, as well as the effects of this exposure on marine life [10,21]. In general, the data indicate that only shallow waters with poor circulation would be likely to reach oil concentrations of signicant concern. While research work and experience are continuing to increase the knowledge and understanding of these exposures, experience to date indicates that the level of potential impact can be acceptable, and indeed preferable in many cases, to the alternative of not using dispersants. The recent well-monitored experience from the Sea Empress oil spill response [6,14] is a good example of this.

Solvency Nanotech Solves New spill tech solves nanotech and magnets separate oil Levitt 12-CNN writer and reporter (Tom, CNN, Cleaning up oil spills with magnets and nanotechnology, 9/21/12, http://www.cnn.com/2012/09/21/tech/oil-spill-magnets)//AK Oil companies could soon be using an innovative new technique involving nanotechnology and magnets to help clean up offshore oil spills. Oil spills from container ships or offshore platforms are a frequent hazard to marine and coastal ecosystems and an expensive one to clean up. BP expects the Gulf of Mexico oil spill in 2010 -the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history -- to cost it $40 billion. However, researchers from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) say they have found a method of recovering oil after a spill using magnets, potentially saving companies like BP money in clean up bills. On it's own, oil is not magnetic, but MIT researchers say that when mixed with water-repellent nanoparticles that contain iron, the oil can be magnetically separated from the water. The nanoparticles can later be removed to enable the re-use of the oil. "I had known about other scientists using magnetic fluids to separate oil but it had never worked out practically and that was something I felt I could do something about," says co-researcher Markus Zahn. I think in the world we are in, there are always going to be spillages which affect the wildlife and livelihoods of people and this can help tackle that Markus Zahn, Massachusetts Institute of Technology.The recovery process would be conducted out at sea after the oil spill, explains Zahn. Seawater polluted with oil would be pumped onto a boat treatment facility. Once onboard, the magnetic nanoparticles would be added and attach themselves to the oil. The liquid would then be filtered with the magnets to separate the oil and water, with the water returned to the sea and the oil carried back to shore to an oil refinery. "I think in the world we are in, there are always going to be spillages which affect the wildlife and livelihoods of people and this can help tackle that," says Zahn. Since the 2010 Gulf of Mexico oil spill, there has been a rise in interest from oil companies and government departments in funding new techniques for reducing the environmental impact and cost of future oil spills. Until now the two main methods have been using chemical dispersants, which break up the oil, and skimming, a technique whereby the oil is pulled off the surface of the water.

New spill tech solves - oil magnets are efficient and nanoparticles can be reused Korosec, 12 - (Kirsten, Smart Planet, Using magnets to clean up oil spills, 7/14/12, http://www.smartplanet.com/ blog/intelligent-energy/using-magnets-to-clean-up-oil-spills/18801)//AK Oil spill control efforts like those used during the BP disaster in the Gulf of Mexico typically focus on the crude floating on the surface of the water and rely on a hodgepodge of solutions from skimmers and floating containment booms to burning the oil and using chemical dispersants. None of them are wildly effective on their own. And even when used in combination, not all the oil is recovered, especially when the water is choppy. Researchers at MIT have developed a technique that could make cleaning up oil spills a far more efficient and cost effective endeavor with help from water-repellent ferrous nanoparticles. Markus Zahn, the Thomas and Gerd Perkins Professor of Electrical Engineering, says after the BP oil spill disaster he had an idea: If the oil were magnetic, it could be removed using strong magnets and then separated from the oil. Zahn, Shahriar Khushrushahi, a postdoc in MITs Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science, and T. Alan Hatton, the Ralph Landau Professor of Chemical Engineering, will present its work at the International Conference on Magnetic fluids in January. Under the researchers scheme, water -repellent ferrous nanoparticles (basically fluids with magnetic nanoparticles floating around in them) is mixed with the oil, which could then be separated from the water using magnets. The research team, which has filed two patents, envisions the process would take place aboard an oil-recovery vessel to prevent the nanoparticles from contaminating the environment, according to MITs News Office. The nanoparticles could then be magnetically removed from the oil and reused . As for the oil, it could be sent to a refinery, where it could be turned into a variety of fuels, such as gasoline.

Solvency Multiple Methods Solve Multiple advanced methods exist for controlling spills EPA, 11 - Environmental Protection Agency (Environmental Protection Agency, oil spill response techniques, 1/27/11, http://www.epa.gov/osweroe1/content/learning/oiltech.htm)//AK A number of advanced response mechanisms are available for controlling oil spills and minimizing their impacts on human health and the environment. The key to effectively combating spills is careful selection and proper use of the equipment and materials best suited to the type of oil and the conditions at the spill site. Most spill response equipment and materials are greatly affected by such factors as conditions at sea, water currents, and wind. Damage to spill-contaminated shorelines and dangers to other threatened areas can be reduced by timely and proper use of containment and recovery equipment. Mechanical containment or recovery is the primary line of defense against oil spills in the United States. Containment and recovery equipment includes a variety of booms, barriers, and skimmers, as well as natural and synthetic sorbent materials. Mechanical containment is used to capture and store the spilled oil until it can be disposed of properly. Chemical and biological methods can be used in conjunction with mechanical means for containing and cleaning up oil spills. Dispersing agents and gelling agents are most useful in helping to keep oil from reaching shorelines and other sensitive habitats. Biological agents have the potential to assist recovery in sensitive areas such as shorelines, marshes, and wetlands. research into these technologies continues to improve oil spill cleanup. Subpart J of the National Contingency Plan (NCP) establishes the process for authorizing the use of dispersants and other chemical response agents, which includes the NCP Product Schedule, which is the federal government's listing of chemical countermeasures that are available for use during or after an oil spill response. Physical methods are used to clean up shorelines. Natural processes such as evaporation, oxidation, and biodegradation can start the cleanup process, but are generally too slow to provide adequate environmental recovery. Physical methods, such as wiping with sorbent materials, pressure washing, and raking and bulldozing can be used to assist these natural processes. Scare tactics are used to protect birds and animals by keeping them away from oil spill areas. Devices such as propane scare-cans, floating dummies, and helium-filled balloons are often used, particularly to keep away birds.

AT Squo Solves Tech Sharing

Export controls block sharing deep water drilling technology that Cuba needs Alvardado, 10 Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska (Jonathan, Evaluating the Prospects for USCuban Energy Cooperation, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/press/books/2010/cubasenergyfuture/cubasenergyfuture_chapter.pdf) The potential of Cubas offshore oil reserves may only be accessible when Cuba and its partners are able to employ rst-generation American deepwater exploration technology. At present, U.S. export controls limit access to this technology. Under conditions favoring resource development and production-sharing scenarios, the United States may begin to roll back
these export control restrictions.

AT Squo Solves Cooperation Now

Cooperation is still lacking no agreement for coordinating industry and government efforts Allen, 12- NPR's Miami correspondent, Greg Allen reports on the diverse issues and developments tied to the Southeast (Greg, NPR, U.S. Watches Closely As Oil Drilling Begins Off Cuba, 2/13/12, http://www.npr.org/2012/02/13/146635957/u-s-watches-closely-as-oil-drilling-begins-off-cuba)//AK Pinon also says the Spanish company doing the drilling, Repsol, has a lot of experience with deep-water drilling in the Gulf. And, he says, the company has upgraded its procedures to incorporate lessons learned in the 2010 Deepwater Horizon spill.But Pinon sees another problem. Because of the 50-year-old embargo, the U.S. and Cuban governments have almost no contact. "There is no agreement of cooperation of who's going to do what during an incident like this ," he says. After the Deepwater Horizon blowout, Pinon notes Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen was put in charge of the cleanup coordinating industry and government efforts. "That's not going to be the case here," Pinon says. "And here particularly, it's between two countries that have not spoken to each other in 50 years."

AT Squo Solves Cuba Tech/Experience

U.S. deepwater technology is key to solvency - Cuba has only 5% of the resources needed to contain a spill Rogers, 12 Bacevich Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, focusing on science, technology, and national security (Will, Western Hemisphere Happenings: Cubas Continued Quest for
Offshore Oil December 17, 2012, http://www.cnas.org/blogs/naturalsecurity/2012/12/western-hemispherehappenings-cuba-s-continued-quest-offshore-oil.html)
With fresh memories of the Gulf Coast Deepwater Horizon accident, U.S. government officials including the U.S. Coast Guard have been increasingly worried about offshore oil drilling in non-U.S. waters that could impact the U.S. coast if an accident occurs. Increased activity in Cuban waters is a particular concern for U.S. officials. A March 2012 The Washington Post report noted that Cubas capacity to respond to an offshore oil spill is extremely limited, with only 5 percent of the resources needed to contain a spill approaching the size of the Deepwater Horizon disaster . These concerns have also raised the question of how the United States could respond to an oil spill in Cuban waters given the state of U.S.-Cuba relations, including export restrictions that prohibit U.S. companies from providing equipment or otherwise performing response functions that could be construed as aiding the Cuban government. In particular, the half-century old Cuban embargo obliges any company operating in Cuba to use only equipment that contains less than 10 percent U.S.-made parts in order to avoid sanctions. This means that companies

operating in Cubas deepwater may not necessarily be using the most sophisticated or the safest tools and techniques shared by U.S. drilling companies. This might not be a concern in shallow water (several hundreds of feet deep), but in ultra deep water (depths beyond 1,500 meters), U.S. companies have a comparative advantage over many other international drilling companies. Moreover, deepwater drilling remains risky, even for U.S. companies. And while Zarubezhneft plans to drill in shallower water for its next project, it is still drilling in deep water : 6,500 meters. Given that Washington does not maintain official diplomatic ties with Havana, it is unclear how the United States and Cuba would cooperate around an oil
spill that could have economic and environmental implications for U.S. coastal communities, and it is something that should be a concern for U.S. officials as drilling continues off Cubas coast.

Cuba doesnt have the experience with marine oil spills- international partners are key to their economy and ecology CDA, 11 Center for the Democracy of Americas, nonprofit organization devoted to changing U.S. policy towards the countries of the Americas ( 9/9/11, http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf) //AK However, Cuba has no significant experience with major marine-based spills. Cuba is working with its drilling partners to observe international safety and environmental standards. According to the CITMA staff, Cuba has adopted the Safety Case approach for its offshore drilling program. Lee Hunt noted that Saipem, the owner of the rig that will drill for Repsol, It is true that the economic machine on Cuba didnt spin up to the level of its neighbors , but you have to give credit where credit is due. They have very strong laws, and one thing that I have noticed over the years, is that Cuba has an unwavering respect of science and scientists. Had been instructed by CUPET (Cubas national oil company) to utilize IADC safety case guidelines. Saipem and Repsol are both members of IADC. The MINBAS staff also spoke to CDA about Cubas environmental concerns from their perspective as participants in offshore drilling with international partners. We are all aware of the potential impacts of an accident, one official said. There is risk and the human factor. Supervision and surveillance are extremely important. On the rig, the partner is making the decisions. But CUPET is there and involved in decisions.According to Hunt, Cuba has previously sought out resources for deep water, offshore drilling requirements from credible international sources. Cuba contacted IADC, expressed interest in the Safety Case guidelines, and attended an International Regulators Forum . Daniel Whittle, Cuba Program Director for the Environmental Defense Fund, believes that Cuba is determined to avoid a BP-style disaster: They simply have too much at stake, politically, economically, and ecologically to do otherwise.

U.S. must cooperate with Cuba to solve spills cannot rely on unseasoned Cuban industry Cuba Standard, 12 (U.S. Coast Guard captain advocates spill cooperation with Cuba March 9, 2012,
http://www.cubastandard.com/2012/03/09/u-s-coast-guard-captain-advocates-spill-cooperation-with-cuba/)//EB

In a position paper published by Council on Foreign Relations, U.S. Coast Guard Admiral Melissa Bert and energy research fellow Blake Clayton argue that the U.S. government must cooperate directly with Cuba in order to reduce environmental damages caused by a possible oil spill in Cuban waters. A semi-submersible rig began operating in Cuban waters of the Florida Straits in February, the first offshore drill in Cuba since 2004. Cuba will drill for oil in its territorial waters with or without the blessing of the United States, the authors conclude. Defending against a potential oil spill requires a modicum of advance

coordination and preparation with the Cuban government, which need not go beyond spill-related matters. Without taking these precautions, the United States risks a second Deepwater Horizon, this time from Cuba. Pointing out the challenge posed by strong currents in the Florida Straits, and assuming that Washington cannot count on the technical know-how of Cubas unseasoned oil industry to address a spill on its own, Bert and Clayton suggest the U.S.
government should not only hold multi-party talks involving Cuba, but seek a direct agreement with Cuba about basic spill-oriented advance coordination and communication. To accommodate such an agreement, Congress must amend the Cuban Democracy Act of 1992 to allow for limited, spill-related coordination and communication with the Cuban government.

Cuba has never coped with a major spill and even Cuban officials admit their practices cut corners CDA, 11 Center for the Democracy of Americas, nonprofit organization devoted to changing U.S. policy towards the countries of the Americas ( 9/9/11, http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf) //AK
Cubas domestic production of energy does not meet its daily energy consumption, and the country depends on Venezuela for roughly two-thirds of its daily requirement to keep its economy afloat. This arrangement is unsustainable over the long term. Cuba has set aside 59 offshore blocks in the Gulf of Mexico where it may have significant, recoverable supplies of oil. Working with foreign oil companies, drilling is expected to commence later in 2011 using a state of the art rig that was manufactured in China to avoid a violation of the U.S. embargo. While the economic impact of a significant oil discovery could be felt in Cuba before it even reaches production, oil in commercially viable amounts would change Cubas geopolitical equation south with Venezuela and north with the U.S. Cubas government has a capable environmental program in place, but experts note it has never coped with a major

marine spill, and some Cuban officials frankly admit to familiar economic trade-offs in their environmental practices. The environmental risks to the Gulf become immediate as soon as drilling begins.

AT Coral Reefs Can Be Cleaned Up No effective way of removing oil from coral reefs

Bursch, 10-Tampa Bay News Reporter (Kathryn, Oil spill could threaten Florida coral reef, Tampa Bay News, May 3, http://www.wtsp.com/news/local/story.aspx?storyid=131227)//TWR
Large amounts of oil over a period of time will kill the coral," says coral researcher and consultant Walter Jaap. Jaap spent 35 years studying coral in the Keys for the Florida Fish and Wildlife Research Institute . If oil enters the loop current, it

could coat coral and once that happens, Jaap says cleanup is not an option. "The heavy oils would stick and adhere to this and just cover it over like paint," he says while holding a large coral display. "And it would be almost impossible to get it out of there. There's really no effective way of doing that." Researchers from the Florida Aquarium have already documented a massive coral die-off because of the cold winter. And what hasn't died is stressed, so any oil will just make matters worse. And it's not just the coral that matters; it's all the marine life that
depends on the habitat it provides. "The lobster, grouper, snapper," lists Jaap. If oil damages the coral, there's an economic impact as well. In Monroe County, it's estimated that tourists diving the coral reefs generate some $470 million a year. Most corals are slow growing and if oil doesn't kill the coral it slows reproduction. Jaap says that means any oil damage could take decades for Mother Nature to repair.

AT Alt Cause Reef Damage - Resilient

Coral reefs are resilient- will recover from natural disturbances Lirman, 4/10 Professor of Ecology and Earth Science, University of Miami (2013, http://sofla mares.org/docs /MARES_ICEM _FKDT_v2_20120802pf _Appdx_HabitatsCorals.pdf)//AK Periodic disturbances are an integral component of coral reef ecology and coral reefs, like all other natural ecosystems, are in a constant state of damage and recovery. However, under healthy conditions, coral reef organisms are able to withstand and recover from disturbances. This ability to recover quickly from disturbance is an attribute that is highly valued by scientists, managers, and the public (Nystrom and Folke, 2001). When disturbance thresholds are exceeded or multiple stressors compromise the recovery capabilities of reef
organisms, coral reefs can enter into an alternate state of degradation from which it is increasingly more difficult to recover. Some of the attributes that make a reef community resilient to disturbance include an intact trophic structure, high diversity of organisms, and good water quality.

At Alt Cause Reef Damage GIS Tech Coral reefs are being restored GIS technology transplants corals Globalization 101, 10 Globalization 101: A Project of Suny Levin Institute (The Protection of Coral Reefs, Globalization 101, 8/30/10, http://www.globalization101.org/the-protection-of-coral-reefs)//ER Coral reefs are protected by a variety of state and national laws in the U.S., including fishing laws. For example, in the state of Florida, a no-take zone has been instituted, forbidding fishing in and around Dry Tortugas National Park. This is the largest zone of its kind in the continental U.S. Such restrictions are often opposed by fishermen and have met resistance at the state, local, national and international level. On the international level, a U.S. and Swedish proposal regarding coral species trade was rejected in a recent gathering of the Convention of the International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora.9 New Technologies and Research to Help Protect Endangered Coral Reefs Coral reefs are a fundamental part of marine ecosystems. They have been severely affected by human activity, but research and advancements in technology will make their protection possible. Such developments in technology include the use of GIS and various scientific methods. GIS Geographic information systems (GIS) could play a key role in saving the worlds endangered coral reefs. The World Resources Institute (WRI) is using GIS in a survey on coral reef regions. This project will be available to the public, through Google Earth, and will provide information about six coral reef regions. Specifically, the project looks at the four main threats to coral reefs: marine-based threats, overfishing, coastal development, and land-based sources of pollution.10 The WRIs online map collects data from nearly 30 project partners, such as the WWF and Conservation International. Due to advancements in communication and technology, the sharing of information between research groups has improved dramatically, making the project more successful and the new maps 64 times more detailed than the previous report. The final report is scheduled to be published in September 2010. This report will look 20 and 40 years into the future, projecting what may happen to coral reef communities and what is needed for their survival. This project can be use in many ways, such as raising awareness of highly-threatened locations. It is hoped that this project will increase investment in coastal management throughout the world, and in turn will reduce local pressures in coral reefs.11 Science In Malaysia, the Science, Technology and Innovation Ministry has collaborated with local universities to carry out research on coral transplanting methods. These universities have successfully transplanted coral by breeding microbes that keep the corals alive. Other methods to revive bleached coral include the grafting of a section from a healthy coral to a bleached coral, which with proper care can multiply and colonize the bleached coral

AT Alt Cause Reef Damage - Management Management programs prevent destruction MARES, 11-organization for developing projects to protect coastal reefs (Marine and Estuary Goal Setting for Southern Florida, Coral reef and hardbottom habitats and Marine and Estuarine Goal Setting for South Florida, 9/4/11, http://sofla-mares.org/docs /MARES_fact %20page_corals.pdf)//AK Management actions are activities to promote use and that protect and conserve natural resources. They consist of gathering information, decision-making, and program implementation that are carried out by agencies responsible for making policies and implemeneting management actions that affect reef and hardbottom habitats. Moooring buoys are one example of management actions to protect and promote use of coral reef and hardbottom habitats. Mooring buoys have been installed along the Florida Reef Tract to reduce physical impacts to coral reefs and hardbottom habitats caused by anchoring. In addition, the Coral Reef Protection Act recognizes the importance of coral reefs to Floridas ecology, beauty and economy. The act affords protection to the entire Florida Reef Tract. The act authorizes the Florida Department of Environmental Protection, as the states lead trustee for coral reef resources, to protect coral reefs through timely and assessment and recovery.

Sanctuary provides coral reef protection NMPAC, 6/27 national Coral Reef Protection Agency (National Marine Protected Areas Center, 6/27/13, http://marineprotectedareas.noaa.gov/ aboutmpas/casestudies/ floridakeys/)//AK Following the sanctuary designation, representatives of the newly formed Sanctuary Advisory Council, members of the public, and federal, state, and local agency officials worked to assemble a management plan for the sanctuary (Barley, 1993). Important issues addressed in the management plan came from several sources, including technical workshops, public meetings and surveys, and Sanctuary Advisory Council members. During the six years it took to complete the management plan, participants encountered both support and opposition from the Florida Keys community. Those who opposed the sanctuary feared excessive regulations, economic losses, and possible displacement of traditional users and uses (Suman, 1999). The community was interested in improving water quality, but it also was concerned about possible restrictions placed on boating activities, commercial and recreational fishing, recreational use of cultural and historical resources, and general land use (DOC, 1996). Because the management design process included unprecedented public involvement, it was developed with all of these concerns in mind. After conducting a thorough analysis of five different management alternatives and seeking extensive public comment, the preferred (and current) management plan was selected because it most closely met the resource protection goals of the National Marine Sanctuary Act and the Florida Keys National Marine Sanctuary and Protection Act. Yet, it still allowed public use of the sanctuary. It also recognized the role of federal, state and local management authorities in meeting sanctuary objectives (DOC, 1996). One innovative component of the sanctuary management plan is the combination of sanctuary-wide regulations with a system of marine zoning. Approximately 6 percent of the sanctuary is set aside as fully protected zones known as ecological reserves, sanctuary preservation areas and special use areas. Stringent restrictions on harvesting marine life and harming natural resources govern these zones to ensure their long-term survival. Twenty-four fully protected zones exist within the sanctuary. They protect critical habitat, preserve species diversity and relieve pressure from some coral reef areas. In 2001, the Tortugas Ecological Reserve was established to complete the sanctuary zoning scheme outlined in the management plan. This new reserve helps protect fish stocks in the Tortugas, ensuring the stability of commercial and recreational fisheries. Vessel discharges and anchoring activities are restricted in this zone to protect water quality and habitat. Scientists hope that the reserve's geographical isolation will help them distinguish between natural and human-caused changes to the coral reef environment.

AT Alt Cause Reef Damage - Warming Reefs can rebound from warming scientists agree

Waymer, 12 (Jim, July 13, Coral Brink: Researchers Say Collapse Would Have Wide Effects, http://www.floridatoday.com/article/20120714/NEWS01/307140028/Coral-brinkResearchers-say-collapse-would-wide-effects)//SEP
Coral reefs might be undergoing a total collapse that could last thousands of years, a situation made worse by manmade greenhouse gases, according to a Florida Tech study just published in Science. But reefs rebounded from previous climate extremes, so they can still be saved, the researchers say, as long as

greenhouse-gas trends are reversed. "It's one of these good news, bad news sort of scenarios," said co-author Richard Aronson, a biology professor at Florida Tech. "

AT Alt Cause Reef Damage - Regulations Regulations provide substantial protection of coral reef WPRFMC, 6/27 Western Pacific Regional Fishery Management Council ( Coral Reef Ecosystems Fishery Management Plan, WPRFMC, http://www.wpcouncil.org/f ishery-plans-policies-reports/coralreef-fishery-management-plan/)//AK The Council completed the Fishery Management Plan for Coral Reef Ecosystems of the Western Pacific Region in October of 2001. On June 14, 2002 NMFS issued a Record of Decision that partially approved the FMP. NMFS disapproved a portion of the plan that governs fishing in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) west of 16050 W. long. because it would be inconsistent with or duplicate certain provisions of Executive Orders 13178 and 13196, which together established the NWHI Coral Reef Ecosystem Reserve. A final rule implementing the Coral Reef Ecosystem FMP was published on February 24, 2004 (69 FR 8336). The FMP is the nations first ecosystem-based plan for fisheries and includes specific measures to promote sustainable fisheries while providing for substantial protection of coral reef ecosystem resources and habitats throughout the Councils jurisdiction. The management measures of the Coral Reef Ecosystems FMP: Establish a network of marine protected areas (MPA) in the Pacific Remote Island Areas (PRIA). Howland, Baker, Jarvis Islands, Rose Atoll, and Kingman Reef have been designated as no-take MPAs. Palmyra and Johnston Atolls, and Wake Islands are designated as lowuse MPAs where fishing is allowed under special fishing permits. Both no-take and low-use MPAs were proposed for the NWHI in the FMP, but were disapproved by NMFS: Establish a special permit and federal reporting system for controlling and monitoring the harvest of certain coral reef ecosystem management unit species (MUS) for which there is little or no information. Special permits are also required to fish in all areas designated as low-use MPAs. The FMP also uses data collected under existing local reporting systems to monitor the harvest of currently fished coral reef ecosystem MUS; Prohibit the use of destructive and non-selective fishing gears; Prohibit harvesting of coral and live rock, but allow limited take under the special permit system for collection of seed stock by aquaculture operations, and religious/cultural use by indigenous peoples; Incorporate an adaptive management approach using a framework process for rapid regulatory modifications in the event of major changes within coral reef ecosystems or coral reef fisheries; Consider and take into account in management, the historical and cultural dependence of coral reef resources by indigenous people and; Identify and prioritize coral reef related research needs for each island area, including socio-economic and cultural research for future potential allocation of resources.

AT BP Failure New US regulations and equipment provide better safety Diouhy, 10 (Jennifer, Think Tank Sees Reason to Lift Ban, HOUSTON CHRONICLE, 8-26-10, www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/business/7173610.html)/IK
New equipment testing and environmental regulations imposed since the Deepwater Horizon disaster "provide an adequate margin of safety" to allow the Obama administration to lift its ban on deep-water drilling, a think tank told investigators Thursday. The report by the Bipartisan Policy Center, a nonpartisan group established by four former Senate majority leaders, came in response to a request by the presidential commission investigating the disaster to analyze the moratorium. The
center concluded that the deep-water drilling ban - set to expire Nov. 30 - provided an important timeout for the oil and gas industry as well as federal regulators to step up preparation and planning for another spill. Although drilling

risks "cannot be reduced to zero, we are satisfied that compliance" with the Interior Department's new rules and other actions by the department "will achieve a significant and beneficial reduction of risk," the Bipartisan Policy Center said. "If industry is diligent in incorporating
these requirements and the Department of Interior is vigilant in oversight and enforcement, we believe this new regime will provide an adequate margin of safety to responsibly allow the resumption of deep-water drilling in the Gulf of Mexico." The presidential commission's co-chairmen - former Democratic Sen. Bob Graham and Republican William Reilly, a onetime Environmental Protection Agency administrator - have been critical of the Obama administration's decision to impose a ban on drilling from all floating rigs as well as any facilities that rely on subsea blowout preventers. Administration officials have said they may relax the ban and lift it for some kinds of rigs and operations before it expires.

Oil clean up policy has improved increased coordination and personnel Brown, 4/26 - Executive and for the National Park Service (Daniel, National Park Service, Changes in Oil Spill Cleanup Efforts, 4/26/13, http://www.nps.gov/guis/parknews/changes-in-oil-spill-cleanup-efforts.htm)//AK Gulf Islands National Seashore Superintendent Dan Brown announced today that effective May 1, 2013, the public will see changes in the cleanup efforts which have been underway since shortly after the April 20, 2010 Deepwater Horizon explosion.The disaster resulted in an estimated 4.9 million barrels of crude oil being spilled into the Gulf of Mexico over 84 days.The well was not successfully capped until July 16, 2010. Cleanup crews have been actively working within the National Seashore for the last three years to retrieve and dispose of oil
product, and the U.S. Coast Guard Federal On-Scene Coordinator (FOSC) has determined that most areas within the National Seashore have reached a status of "as low as reasonably practicable."Cleanup efforts will transition to the National

Response Center (NRC) reporting system for found oil and will allow counties, states, and the Department of the Interior to move forward with key restoration projects .This transition is a culmination of significant effort during the last three years to get affected areas as close to pre-spill conditions as possible.In anticipation of occasional tar balls, local Coast Guard units will be augmented with additional personnel to handle NRC reports . Superintendent Brown says, "For the most part, our beaches are clean and look like they did before the oil spill, but we know that in a few places oil product will resurface with wind and wave action and with storm events.Beginning May 1, Park staff will patrol and report discovered oil product through the NRC.We also encourage citizens to make reports to the NRC at www.nrc.uscg.mil or by calling 1-800-424-8802."The Coast Guard will respond to these reports and will continue to ensure that BP, as the Responsible Party, cleans up any remaining recoverable oil from the Deepwater Horizon event. Superintendent Brown adds, "The cleanup itself has had considerable impact on the natural and cultural resources in the National Seashore.

Relations Advantage

I/L Drilling= Relations - Perception Cooperative drilling establishes deeper, positive ties signals that the U.S. has a stake in Cubas success CDA, 11 Center for the Democracy of Americas, nonprofit organization devoted to changing U.S. policy towards the countries of the Americas ( 9/9/11, http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf) //AK Cuba is unlikely to disassociate itself from Venezuela or China regardless of what the U.S. does. Still, Cubas post-revolutionary history is defined, in part, by its dependence on the former Soviet Union and later on Venezuela, and the development of its offshore resources could give the islands economy greater independence than it has enjoyed to date. If Cuba were no longer dependent on Venezuela, and the U.S. engaged in cooperative efforts on oil and the environment, we would be establishing deeper and more positive ties with Cubas government and signal to its citizens that we have a stake in their success .

I/L Drilling=Relations Trade/Investment Drilling is key to US-Cuban energy cooperation---solves overall relations, regional stability, and drug trafficking Benjamin, 10 Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, Director of the Intelligence Community Centers of Academic Excellence Program at UNO (Jonathan, Cubas Energy Future: Strategic Approaches to Cooperation:Conclusion and Recommendations)
Oil exploration is an inherently risky enterprise; there are always trade-offs between negatives and positives relating to energy security, environmental integrity, and geostrategic considerations. The consensus arising from the studies and the analyses in this book is that the

creation of mutually beneficial trade and investment opportunities between the United States and Cuba is long overdue. Throughout most of the twentieth century, Cuban infrastructure and economic development were direct beneficiaries of commercial relations with the United States. This relationship was instrumental in providing Cuba with access to advanced technologies and the signs of modernity that were unparalleled in Latin America and far beyond. Once again, the United States is presented with an opportunity that might serve as the basis of a new relationship between the United States and Cuba. It holds out the possibility of enhancing the stability and development of a region that is wrestling with questions of how and when it too might benefit from engagement with a global economic development model. The question is whether the United States chooses to be at the center, or to leave Cuba to seek some alternate path toward its goals. Ironically, Cuban officials have invited American oil companies to participate in developing their offshore oil and natural gas reserves. American oil, oil equipment, and service companies possess the capital, technology, and operational know-how to explore, produce, and refine these resources in a safe and responsible manner. Yet they remain on the sidelines because of our almost five-decades-old unilateral political and economic embargo. The United States can end this impasse by licensing American oil companies to participate in the development of Cubas energy resources. By seizing the initiative on Cuba policy, the United States will be strategically positioned to play an important role in the future of the island, thereby giving Cubans a better chance for a stable, prosperous, and democratic future. The creation of stable and transparent commercial relations in the energy sector will bolster state capacity in Cuba while enhancing U.S. geostrategic interests, and can help Cubas future leaders avoid illicit business practices, minimize the influence of narcotrafficking enterprises, and stanch the outflow of illegal immigrants to the United States. If U.S. companies are allowed to contribute to the development of Cubas hydrocarbon reserves, as well as the development of alternative and renewable energy (solar, wind, and biofuels), it will give the United States the opportunity to engage Cubas future leaders to carry out long-overdue economic reforms and development that will perhaps pave the way to a more open and representative society while helping to promote Cuba as a stable partner and leader in the region and beyond. Under no circumstances is this meant to suggest that the United States should come to dominate energy development policy in Cuba. The United States certainly has a role to play, but unlike its past relationship with Cuba, its interaction and cooperation will be predicated on its ability to accept, at a minimum, that Cuba will be the dominant partner in potential commercial ventures, and an equal partner in future diplomatic and interstate relations. Without a doubt Cuban government actors are wary of the possibility of being dominated by the colossus of the North, but as Cubas energy policymakers face the daunting reality of their nations energy future, it is abundantly clear that they possess the willingness and the capacity to assiduously pursue sound policy objectives and initiatives that begin to address the islands immediate and long-term challenges. In the end, this course of action will have direct and tangible benefits for the people of Cuba, it neighbors, and beyond.

Cuban Economy Advantage

I/L Yes Oil

Cuba has more than 20 billion barrels of offshore oilreserves in the top 20 Carroll, 08Latin American correspondent for The Guardian (Rory Carroll, 20bn Barrel Oil Discovery Puts Cuba in the Big League, The Guardian, October 17, 2008, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/oct/18/cuban-oil)//IK
Friends and foes have called Cuba many things - a progressive beacon, a quixotic underdog, an oppressive tyranny - but no one has called it lucky, until now .

Mother nature, it emerged this week, appears to have blessed the island with enough oil reserves to vault it into the ranks of energy powers. The government announced there may be more than 20bn barrels of recoverable oil in offshore fields in Cuba's share of the Gulf of Mexico, more than twice the previous estimate. If confirmed, it puts Cuba's reserves on par with those of the US and into the world's top 20. Drilling is expected to start next year by Cuba's state oil company Cubapetroleo, or Cupet. "It would change their whole equation. The government would have more money and no longer be dependent on foreign oil," said Kirby Jones, founder of the Washington-based US-Cuba Trade Association. "It could join the club of oil exporting nations." "We have more data. I'm almost certain that if they ask for all the data we have, (their estimate) is going to
grow considerably," said Cupet's exploration manager, Rafael Tenreyro Perez. Havana based its dramatically higher estimate mainly on comparisons with oil output from similar geological structures off the coasts of Mexico and the US. Cuba's undersea geology was "very similar" to Mexico's giant Cantarell oil field in the Bay of Campeche, said Tenreyro. A consortium of companies led by Spain's Repsol had tested wells and were expected to begin drilling the first production well in mid-2009, and possibly several more later in the year, he said. Cuba currently produces about 60,000 barrels of oil daily, covering almost half of its needs, and imports the rest from Venezuela in return for Cuban doctors and sports instructors. Even that barter system puts a strain on an impoverished economy in which Cubans earn an average monthly salary of $20. Subsidised grocery staples, health care and education help make ends meet but an old joke - that the three biggest failings of the revolution are breakfast, lunch and dinner - still does the rounds. Last month hardships were compounded by tropical storms that shredded crops and devastated coastal towns. " This

news about the oil reserves could not have come at a better time for the regime," said Jonathan Benjamin-Alvarado, a Cuba energy specialist at the
University of Nebraska. However there is little prospect of Cuba becoming a communist version of Kuwait. Its oil is more than a mile deep under the

The four-decade-old US economic embargo prevents several of Cuba's potential oil partners - notably Brazil, Norway and Spain - from using valuable first-generation technology. "You're looking at
ocean and difficult and expensive to extract. three to five years minimum before any meaningful returns," said Benjamin-Alvarado. Even so, Cuba is a master at stretching resources. President Raul Castro, who took over from brother Fidel, has promised to deliver improvements to daily life to shore up the legitimacy of the revolution as it approaches its 50th anniversary. Cuba's unexpected arrival into the big oil league could increase pressure on the next administration to loosen the embargo to let US oil companies participate in the bonanza and reduce US dependency on the middle east, said Jones. "Up until now the embargo did not really impact on us in a substantive, strategic way. Oil is different. It's something we need and want."

I/L Cuba Accesses Oil U.S. technology enables Cuba to substantially increase oil recovery Alvarado and Pinon, 10,(Jonathan, Professor of Political Science at University of Nebraska at Omaha, and Jorge, Professor at University of Texas and Director of Center for International Energy and Environmental Policy, Evaluating the Prospects for US-Cuban Energy Cooperation, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/press/books/2010/cubasenergyfuture/cubasenergyfuture_chapter.pd f)
Since 1991 Cuba has seen close to $2 billion of direct foreign investment spent in its upstream oil and natural gas sector, with very good results. Crude oil liquids production reached a peak level of 65,531 b/d in 2003, up from 9,090 b/d in 1991. Between 2003 and 2010 Cuba saw its crude oil production level out at around 52,000 b/d.5 As of spring 2010, the state-owned firms have conducted only seismic work in their blocks. In 2005, a Sinopec subsidiary, Great Wall Drilling Co., signed a service contract with Cupet to provide a number of bidirectional drilling rigs and other service equipment. A bidirectional rig allows the oil company to drill down vertically and then horizontally or at an angle to access oil reserves. This makes it possible for oil rigs to be placed onshore to access reserves relatively near the shore in coastal reserves. They are currently leased by Sherritt and Cupet and are operating in block 7. 14 This activity has been the source of recent rumors and speculation in the United States that China was actively drilling in Gulf of Mexico waters off the Florida coast.15 Cupet is currently conducting exploratory work without foreign assistance east of Havana in prospect areas such as Guanabo, Tarara, Santa Maria, and others.16 Cubas onshore and coastal (in coastal waters) heavy oil production seems to have reached a plateau at

once Cupet can gain access to the services, technology, equipment, and capital available through independent U.S. oil and oil sendees and equipment companies, Cubas onshore and coastal heavy oil production potential could grow to an amount in excess of 75,000 b/d. Cuba will be able to realize these gains by implementing enhanced secondary recovery methods. If Cuba can access advanced technology (primarily U.S.- based technology) and more investment capital, there is a reasonable expectation that Cuba could increase its recovery rate to somewhere between 17 and 20 percent. This is the recovery factor for
around 52,000 b/d; but similar heavy crude fields in the United States and Canada.

I/L Venezuela Will Cut Off Oil Maduro has a weak mandate and will cave to domestic pressure to end oil subsidies opposition is increasingly organized and emboldened

World Trends Watch, 13 ( Change in Venezuela Yields Political and Economic Uncertainty, Helios Global, April 29, 13, http://www.heliosglobalinc.com/world-trends-watch/?p=152)//TWR
The removal of Chavez from the political equation will also have an important geopolitical impact that wil l be felt beyond Venezuelas borders. Venezuela remains an important supplier of discounted oil for its regional partners and a source of other vital economic support. On the surface, Maduros decision to travel to Cuba for his first foreign trip in late A pril reflects his determination to continue the populist and activist foreign policy forged by his late predecessor. Venezuelan largesse in the form of discounted oil and other benefits has helped sustain Cubas Communist Party. Yet, it appears that Maduro is operating under a weaker popular

mandate . This raises important questions about his ability to maintain his late predecessors approach to foreign affairs, especially given the presence of an increasingly organized and emboldened opposition. Risks Operating under a weaker popular mandate, and in a politically charged and polarized climate, raises the specter of widespread disturbances in Venezuela. Capriles announced on April 25 that his movement plans to boycott an official audit of the election results due to concerns relating to voter registration irregularities. He has also called for a new presidential vote. Capriles and his supporters seem determined to step up pressure on the fledgling Maduro presidency. Countries that depend on Venezuelan largesse to support their economies through the receipt of subsidized oil and preferential trade access to the Venezuelan market, including Cuba, Nicaragua, and Bolivia, among others, stand to lose a great deal should Maduro choose to shift Venezuelan foreign
policy, however slightly, from the Bolivarian Revolutionary ideals enshrined during Chavezs rule. Having to contend with the ir own economic troubles, the loss of subsidized oil or other benefits provided by Venezuela, for example, can destabilize fragile polities, impoverishing millions in the process. This raises the potential of social, political, and economic instability throughout the region.

Venezuelan oil subsidy cannot continue indefinitely economy is too poor

Shifter, 6/25-Foreighn policy specialist at World News Australia, President of the Inter-American Dialogue, Adjunct Professor of Latin American Studies at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service (Michael, Did the Latin American left die with Chvez?, World News Australia, http://www.sbs.com.au/news/article/1782210/Comment-Did-the-Latin-American-left-die-withChavez)//TWR
The episode was another reminder of the privileged access and influence Cuba has enjoyed in Venezuelan politics since Chvez came to power. The island receives an estimated subsidy of $4 billion to $5 billion annually through discounted oil and has vigorously backed Maduro, who is close to the Cuban regime. In exchange for these subsidies, Cuba provides Venezuela with medical and security support and has effectively operated as a proxy for PDVSA, Venezuela's national oil company, to conduct financial transactions with little oversight. Still, though the governments of Cuba, along with those of ALBA members Nicaragua, Ecuador, and

Bolivia, cheered when Maduro was officially declared the winner of the April 14 election, they can hardly be reassured by his shaky political position in Venezuela. They know that given the depth of the economic crisis, Venezuela's generous oil-backed aid cannot continue indefinitely.

I/L - New Foreign Credit Key Stabilize Economy

Cuba desperately needs the influx of international credit that would accompany an oil strike Goforth, 12 blogger on Latin America for Foreign Policy Association and teacher of international political economy at Coastal Carolina University (Sean, Cubas Economic Desperation, The National Interest, 7/31, http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/cuba%27s-economic-desperation-7269?page=1)//ER Communist Cubas salvation this time around was expected to come in the form of massive offshore oil and gas deposits. The Economist last year called the Scarabeo 9, a rig built and shipped from China by the Spanish oil firm Repsol in order to skirt the U.S. embargo, Cubas main hope of economic independence. China, Russia and other countries eagerly courted Raul as the rig moved into place, each vying for a sizeable concession or servicing contract, and each probably rather pleased by the potential side effect of sticking in Washingtons craw. Then, after spending over $100 million in the endeavor, Repsol decided in late May to stop exploring off Cubas coast. Four of the five wells it drilled didnt turn up any oil. In turn, Rauls visit to China, Vietnam and Russia earlier this month almost certainly scheduled before the Repsol announcement didnt result in any breakthrough commitments for investment in Cuba. Of course, Cuba still may become an oil-rich nation in time; already a Malaysian outfit plans to explore a separate offshore bloc. But thats scant consolation for the communist government, which desperately needs the influx of international credit that would accompany a significant oil strike. In more stark terms, Cuba needs a new sponsor, and just who that might be is now in doubt given the recent reticence of the Chinese, Brazilians and others to having greater sway over the islands future.

Cuban economy is precarious due to the high price of foreign credit

MSU Globaledge, 11 (Michigan State University Globaledge, Cuba: Economy, http://globaledge.msu.edu/countries/cuba/economy)//SEP

Cuba's precarious economic position is complicated by the high price it must pay for foreign financing. The Cuban Government defaulted on most of its international debt in 1986 and does not have access to credit from international financial institutions like the World Bank. Therefore, Havana must rely heavily on short-term loans to finance imports, chiefly food and fuel, and structured financial instruments tied to more stable revenue sources (e.g., nickel, tourism, and remittances). Because of its poor credit rating, an $18 billion hard currency debt, and the risks associated with Cuban investment, interest rates have reportedly been as high as 22%.

Cuba is running dangerously low on cash credit is incredibly difficult to obtain

Spadoni & Sagebien, 12 Paolo, Assistant Professor Political Science, Augusta University, and Julia, Associate Professor School of Business Administration, College of Sustainability at Dalhousie University (Nova Scotia, Canada) (Thunderbird International Business Review, Will They Still Love Us Tomorrow? Canada-Cuba Business Relations and the End of the US Embargo, December 19, http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/tie.21524/full)//SEP
Credit for commercial transactions with Cuba is particularly difficult to find, and many traders end up assuming the majority of the risk associated with unmet payment commitments. The Canadian government's credit lines are often maxed out.
While fostering some discipline, Fidel Castro's decision in mid-2003 to launch a round of centralization into the hands of the Cuban Central Bank made the payment process more cumbersome for foreign companies and joint ventures dealing with state agencies. It also led to tightened government control over bank accounts in Cuba of both local entities and foreigners (Mesa-Lago, 2005, p. 26). Cuba's new banking rules enacted in July 2009 eliminated the requirement for state enterprises to obtain Central Bank approval for expenditures in excess of $10,000, turned over management of such transactions to government ministries, and authorized the release of some funds in foreign business accounts that had been kept frozen for months due to growing liquidity problems. In the summer of 2010, nonetheless, there were still hundreds of millions of US dollars in bank accounts with temporary holds and Cuban authorities were trying to retain business by offering overseas firms monthly payments over five years at a 2% interest rate.18 The island's financial system remains overly centralized, but an even

greater problem at present is that Cuba is running dangerously low on cash.

Cuba is urgently seeking to increase access to foreign credit

Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, 13 (Worldwide Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, http://www.dni.gov/files/documents/Intelligence%20Reports/2013%20ATA%20SFR%20for%20 SSCI%2012%20Mar%202013.pdf)//SEP
Cuban President Raul Castro is proceeding cautiously with economic reforms to reduce the states direct role in the economy and diversify trade relations, while preserving socialism and the regime.
Measures implemented since 2011 to expand self-employment, permit sales of vehicles and property, and lease state lands to farmers are generally popular but have failed to produce much growth . With

their primary patron Hugo Chavezs death, Cubas leaders are urgently trying to attract foreign investment partners and increase their access to hard currency and foreign credit.

I/L New Foreign Credit Key Alternatives Insufficient Cuba lacks access to foreign credit to make up for Venezuelan decline alternatives account for less than 10% of Venezuelan aid Luis, no date given Association for the Study of the Cuban Economy, non-profit organization that studies Cuba(Luis, Cuba Ill-prepared for Venezuelan Shock, published sometime after 2011, http://ascecuba.org/blog/post/Cuba-Ill-Prepared-for-Venezuelan-Shock-.aspx)//IK
To compound these problems,

Cuba is cut-off from most international finance from private lenders and international agencies. The island has been on continuous default on international obligations since 1960. Banks provide only short-term import credits, usually collateralized by Cuban foreign deposits. The bond market is also closed except for small private issues placed among friendly institutions. Available finance comes from official credits supplied by few friendly countries, most notably from Venezuela itself which has invested in and financed numerous projects in oil refining,
telecommunications, manufacturing and infrastructure. China is providing modest medium-term credits for industrial equipment. Brazil official banks are providing construction finance and concessional credits for foodstuffs while Russia reportedly is providing new export credits for aircraft. Alternative official sources of credit amount to less than 10% of the value of Venezuelan aid, and it is

unlikely that these sources will be rapidly expanded beyond their present level. The Cuban government, possibly as a precaution against future external shocks, built-up its international liquidity in banks of the 43 countries that report to the Bank of International Settlements (BIS) to $5.7 billion by mid-2011 but has drawn down on this recently to finance essential imports and likely also used in new trade with China, Brazil, Vietnam and other emerging countries. BIS deposits were down to $2.6 billion as of September 2012 and are now mostly needed to back on-going trade lines. Thus they will not be readily available to make-up for a fall in Venezuelan aid.

I/L Spill Hurts Tourism Oil spill hurts Cuban tourism AP News, 10 [USA and Cuba talk about risks of spill of raw petroleum for the island, http://www.thecubaexperience.co.uk/USA_and_Cuba_talk_about_risks_of_spill_of_raw_petroleum_for_the_island. html#sthash.4RVjIbHE.dpuf]//MM
Havana, Cuba, May 19, - American and Cuban Authorities conversed how to respond to the enormous spill of petroleum that is believed is discharging about 5.000 barrels of raw petroleum in the Gulf of Mexico daily. The information was given to AP by an official of the North American Department of State who requested not to be identified because he didn't have authorization to make public comments. The conversations are the most recent sign that it is increasing the worry so strong marine streams could take the stain far from the place of the spill, threatening the Florida Keys and possibly the white beaches of the north coast of Cuba which would affect tourism seriously in those areas. The expert of the Ministry of Science, Technology and Environment of Cuba, Orlando Rey, underrated at the beginning of May that the petroleum spilled in Gulf of Mexico affects the Caribbean island. He pointed out that "the oil is far away from the Cuban territory and the winds are taking it to another direction so that until the moment it doesn't represent a danger for the country", although he assured the situation is under observation. Although finally it was controlled part of the raw spilled out in the Gulf of Mexico due to the explosion of an oil platform on April 20, scientists fear that a stream transfers the enormous columns of fuel that are in the sea until the keys of Florida and further on, harming the coral and the fauna. "It is only a question of when", Peter Ortner, oceanographer of the Miami University said. He estimated that once it arrives to the stream, it could take 10 days or more to reach the keys. Beyond the damage to the biodiversity the arrival of raw petroleum to Cuban coasts

would have a strong impact in tourism, one of the motors of the insular economy that from January to April received 1,05 million travelers, the most successful first four months in the history, as the Cuban Minister of Tourism, Manuel Marrero said. In 2009, the Cuban holiday industry grew 3, 5%, with more than 2, 4 million holidaymakers.

I/L Tourism K2 Cuban Economy Tourism is large part of Cuban economy second largest contributor

ETN 11 (8/21/11, Global Travel Industry News, Tourism Becomes Second Largest Contributor to Cuban
Economy http://www.eturbonews.com/24758/tourism-becomes-second-largest-contributor-cubaneconomy)//MM
Cuban revenue from tourism jumped 13 percent in the first half of the year compared
with the same period in 2010, the National Statistics Office, or ONE, reported on its Web site. According to ONEs figures, total income from Cubas tourism sector between January-July amounted to 990 million dollars compared to 874.5 million in 2010. Strong profits are being reported this year in such areas as hotels, retail sales, gastronomy and transport, while leisure and recreation have tended to be negative. Official data indicates that more than 1.5 million foreign tourists visited Cuba in the first six months of the year, an increase of 10.6 percent over the same period in 2010. Canada headed the list of the leading sources of tourists to the island, followed by Britain, Italy, France and Spain, while Argentina remains the islands most important and fastest growing market in Latin America. Tourism is the second largest contributor to the Cuban economy behind technical and professional services. In 2010, total earnings from tourism were estimated in 2.5 billion dollars. For this year the Tourism Ministry is expecting to welcome 2.7 million tourists.

Tourism is the heart of the Cuban economy Boo et al., 13 (Cubas Economy, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/cuba/economy.htm)//MM
Despite the almost subsistence-level wages of most Cubans, they are generally much better off than citizens of many other developing countries because their meager salaries are supplemented with free education, subsidized medical care, housing, and some subsidized food. In terms of the Human Development Reports human poverty index (HPI), which focuses on the proportion of people below a threshol d level in basic dimensions of human development living a long and healthy life, having access to education, and a decent standard of living Cuba ranked an impressive fifth in Latin America and the Caribbean in 2003. Cuba has a dual economy, with two distinct systems operating side by side. The socialist peso economy applies to most Cubans, providing them with free education, free health care, universal employment, unemployment compensation, disability and retirement benefits and the basis necessities of life: food, housing, utilities and some entertainment at very low cost. The free-market dollarized economy operates in the tourist, international and export sectors, and substantially sustains the socialist economy. In power for five decades, Fidei Castro converted Cuba into a Marxist-Leninist society with no individual freedoms or private property and with a Soviet-style centrally planned economy (see Glossary) run by a vast and cumbersome bureaucracy that has stifled innovation, productivity, and efficiency. Despite massive Soviet aid, the Cubans sank to unprecedented levels of poverty, aggravated further by the collapse of communism in the former Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. In the early 1980s, the Cuban Revolution reached a critical stage in its development. Persistent structural and managerial problems in the economy, low prices for Cuba's export products, and an inability to break away from economic dependence on the Soviet bloc forced a reexamination ofbasic goals. Because production in most key sectors had fallen short of expected targets, emphasis was placed on increased planning with more modest goals. The regime adopted Soviet economic methods, decreased emphasis on moral incentives, and attempted to create more efficient economic organizations. In the process, the Cubans suffered more austerity, with greater rationing offood and consumer goods, and, therefore, harder times. The collapse of communism in the early 1990s had a profound effect on Cuba. Soviet economic subsidies to Cuba ended as of January 1, 1991. Without Soviet support, Cuba was submerged in a major economic crisis. The gross national product contracted by as much as one-half between 1989 and 1993, exports fell by 79 percent and imports by 75 percent, the budget deficit tripled, and the standard of living of the population declined sharply. The Cuban government refers to the economic crisis of the 1990s and the austerity measures put in place to try to overcome it euphemistically as the special period in peacetime. Minor adjustments, such as more liberalized foreign investment laws and the opening of private (but highly regula ted) small businesses and agricultural stands, were introduced. Yet the regime continued to cling to an outdated Marxist and caudillista (dictatorial) system, refusing to open the political process or the economy. The international dimensions of the Cuban government's strategy for survival required the active cultivation of foreign investment and, therefore, of better political relations with market-economy countries. To resist the increased United States economic and political pressures on Cuba, Fidel Castro's government needed to find some international support. Fifteen years after the demise of the Soviet Union the Cuban Government found in Hugo Chavezs Venezuela a new benefactor. Th e politically motivated preferential relationships with this country have replaced tourism as the main engine of growth for the Cuban economy since the second half of 2004. Its main component has been the exchange of medical services for oil at indexed prices and with long-term financing of up to 50% at subsidized interest rates. The transfer of financial resources from Venezuela to Cuba has also materialized in credits for projects at concessionary interest rates, the creation of joint ventures and a large number of cooperation projects. As a whole, the preferential economic relationship with Venezuela allowed the Cuban Government to more than double its import capacity, which had historically been closely related to GDP growth, and to carry out multibillion dollar investments both in infrastructure and productive sectors. This factor, together with almost tripled nickel prices in the world market between 2004 and 2008, explains the high growth rates registered in this period, but also allowed (now former) President Fidel Castro to start reversing some of the liberalizing and decentralizing reforms introduced in the 1993-2003 period. In the fall of 2008 three hurricanes severely battered the island's economy prompting many to speculate that the system could not recover from the devastation. However, nearly all observers have been amazed at the steady progress the GOC has made in restoring the miserable but adequate quality of living in place before the disasters. The government faces serious challenges but its ability to muddle through cannot be underestimated. The Cuban people under the numbing effects of decades of repression, have long been accustomed to adapting, often with remarkable ingenuity, to whatever new deprivation comes their way. There is no reason to think that a new round of ration reductions or rolling power outages will change this fact. In his 2008 inaugural address, Raul Castro said the Cuban Government would "advance in an articulate, sound and well-thought out manner" a series of measures that would raise the Cuban standard of living and tie individual prosperity to individual initiative and work performance. Castro also referred to excess "prohibitions and regulations," the simplest of which the Cuban Government would start removing "in the next few weeks." Ever since, at every opportunity, Castro has emphasized the need, even urgency, of enacting economic reforms. Since 2008, the government has authorized private farmers to work small plots of fallow public land; eliminated some subsidies, including food rations and subsidized lunches in workplace cafeterias; allowed a limited number of traders to operate privately; allowed used cars to be sold; and expanded access to certain previously restricted consumer goods (like cell phones, computers, and home appliances), among other things. Under Raul, a series of limited reforms were implemented, such as the highly-touted lifting of restrictions on the entrance of Cubans into hotels and restaurants that heretofore had been open only to tourists. With little change in the average Cuban's disposable income, however, reforms such as these were more symbolic than real. Of greater potential impact was a provision to allow for greater private use of vacant land, essentially establishing a sharecropping system with the state as the landlord. At the same time, the

government used the crises created by the multiple storms of 2008 to crack down on ordinary citizens as well. Citing the need to protect scarce resources, the government shut down scores of small businesses upon which Cubans depend for services and supplies not provided by the government. The activities of these businesses were indeed "illegal," since in Cuba only the state has the right to carry out commercial activity. But, just as the failure of the government to deliver these services helped create the vast and complex black market that exists here, its enforcement of the law created immediate and almost total absence of many goods and services. In announcing the measures in the spring of 2008, Raul Castro said he planned to end many of the "absurd prohibitions" that characterize life in Cuba. Post-storm efforts to maintain internal order have brought those prohibitions back with a vengeance. Individuals were arrested for having a single bag of cement or for possessing cake dough (to make cake dough one would have to have more than the legal allotment of eggs, milk and flour so, ipso facto, possession of cake dough is an offense that makes one subject to arrest). In April 2010, President Castro announced that there were more than 1 million excess workers in Cuba. In September 2010, the Cuban Government announced that more than 500,000 state workers, 10% of the workforce, would be laid off by the first quarter of 2011. To absorb these workers, the government said it would reduce regulations on private sector employment and expand the cooperative sector. In October 2010, the Cuban Government published new rules regulating the self-employment sector, including new activities (increasing the number of activities authorized to 178), opening the door for self-employed workers to hire labor, and introducing a new tax scheme to include taxes on sales, profit, payroll, and social security. By the end of 2010, the Cuban Government announced it had granted 75,000 new licenses for self-employment activities, which represented more than a 50% increase from the number authorized in 2009. In April 2011, the Communist Party held a party congress for the first time in 14 years, and endorsed reforms previously introduced by President Raul Castro. Most notably, these reforms included allowing the purchase/sale of private property and possible credit mechanisms for small businesses and cooperatives. In late 2011, the Cuban Government announced that it would allow the donati on, sale, and purchase of homes for the first time since the early days of the revolution. The reality of economic reforms to date has not matched the government's urgent language, and the government has so far unveiled limited measures that have fallen short of true market liberalization. The government continues to hamper private sector growth with tight restrictions on the supply of goods and labor, high taxation that discourages hiring and profits, a ban on professional entrepreneurs, limited access to transportation and credit, a monopoly on importation, legal uncertainty and lack of transparency, and a host of other disincentives and restrictions. The reforms introduced so far, at a very slow pace, have been insufficient to reverse the deep systemic crisis first brought to light with the departure of Soviet economic support and exacerbated by a liquidity crisis that peaked in 2008-2009. Exports of professional services, mainly doctors and nurses to Venezuela, has been the main source of hard currency revenues for the Cuban economy since 2005. Sugar, which was the mainstay of the island's economy for most of its history, has fallen upon troubled times. In 1989, production was more than 8 million tons, but by 2009, it had fallen to barely one million tons. Inefficient planting and cultivation methods, poor management, shortages of spare parts, and poor transportation infrastructure combined to deter the recovery of the sector. In June 2002, the government announced its intention to implement a "comprehensive transformation" of this declining sector. Almost half the existing sugar mills were closed, and more than 100,000 workers were laid off. The government promised that these workers would be "retrained" in other fields, though it was unlikely they would find new jobs in Cuba's stagnant economy. The sugar sector has continued to decline since the restructuring, with output registering a downward trend and averaging just 1.6 million tons during 2003-2009.

Tourism figures prominently in the Cuban Government's plans for development, and a top official casts it as at the "heart of the economy." Havana devotes significant resources to building new tourist facilities and renovating historic structures for use in the tourism sector. Roughly 1.7 million tourists visited Cuba in 2001, generating about $1.85 billion in gross revenues; by 2010 that number was 2.53 million, and had generated $2.4 billion. According to the Cuban Ministry of the Basic Industry (MINBAS), nickel
became the leading export and the top foreign exchange earner in 2007. In 2009, world nickel prices generated $870 million. Cuba's pharmaceutical and biotechnology industry is another emerging sector, ranking third in foreign sales behind nickel and oil products, and ahead of traditional products such as tobacco, rum, and sugar. Exports of pharmaceutical and biotech products were between $300 and $350 million in 2007-2008 and jumped to $520 million in 2009. Remittances also play a large role in Cuba's economy. Cuba does not publish accurate economic statistics, but academic sources estimate that remittances total from $800 million to $1.5 billion per year, with most coming from families in the United States. U.S. regulatory changes in 2009 and 2010 allow unlimited remittances to family members and religious organizations. The total amount of family remittances that an authorized traveler may carry to Cuba is now $3,000. In January 2011, the United States announced further changes that permit anyone under U.S. jurisdiction to send up to $500 per quarter to someone in Cuba. The changes also authorize unlimited remittances to religious organizations in Cuba. In 2004, the government mandated that U.S. dollars be exchanged for "convertible pesos" or CUCs--a local currency that can be used only in Cuba and has no value internationally. The Cuban Government levies a 10% penalty on U.S. dollar exchanges that disproportionately affect Cubans who receive remittances from relatives in the United States. However, Western Union announced in December 2010 that it received permission from the U.S. and Cuban governments to remit payments in Cuban convertible pesos, thus avoiding the 10% surcharge. The Cuban Government captures these dollar remittances by allowing Cuban citizens to shop in state-run "dollar stores," which sell food, household, and clothing items at a high mark-up averaging over 240% of face value. To help keep the economy afloat, Cuba has actively courted foreign investment in targeted sectors. Although majority foreign ownership has been permitted since 1995, it has seldom been allowed. Foreign investment often takes the form of joint ventures with the Cuban Government holding half of the equity, management contracts for tourism facilities, or financing for agricultural crops. The number of joint ventures has steadily declined since 2002 to 218 in 2009. Moreover, a hostile investment climate, characterized by inefficient and overpriced labor, dense regulations, and an impenetrable bureaucracy, continue to deter foreign investment. In 2010, the government published a new l aw that extended the leases foreign investors could sign from 50 years to 99 years, exclusively for tourist properties, and said that it was in talks with international firms to build up to 16 new golf courses in 2011. None had moved forward by the close of 2011. Cuba's precarious economic position is complicated by the high price it must pay for foreign financing. The Cuban Government defaulted on most of its international debt in 1986 and does not have access to credit from international financial institutions like the World Bank. Therefore, Havana must rely heavily on short-term loans to finance imports, chiefly food and fuel, and structured financial instruments tied to more stable revenue sources (e.g., nickel, tourism, and remittances). Because of its poor credit rating, an $18 billion hard currency debt, and the risks associated with Cuban investment, interest rates have reportedly been as high as 22%. Years of doing without have conditioned the Cuban people to live on very little beyond promises, and quick and decisive government action against anyone who steps out of line ensures that complainers are dealt with. Cubans are losing whatever ability they may have had to accept their lot in life. Generations have faced scarcity of basic goods, and lack of freedom to speak and act as they pleased, but they survived and found a way to "resolver" the problems of daily life. There is now much greater frustration about the government's failure to create the conditions necessary to improve the economy, and willingness to accept the status quo is evaporating.

I/L LNG Terrorism Motivation/Ability

Terrorists have the intent and capability to attack and explode an LNG tanker

Clark, 5 Internationally-recognized expert on security, including homeland security and counterterrorism (Richard, A Security Risk Management Analysis for ATTORNEY GENERAL PATRICK
LYNCH RHODE ISLAND, http://www.projo.com/extra/2005/lng/clarkereport.pdf)
NET ASSESSMENT: While there is no adequate way in which to determine the probability of a terrorist attack on the proposed urban LNG facility and inland waterway transit routing, there is adequate grounds to judge that such an attack would be consistent with

terrorists demonstrated intent and capability . There is also a basis to judge that likely enhanced security measures would not significantly reduce the risk. While there are some differences among experts about the conditions needed to generate a catastrophic explosion and about the precise extent of the resulting damage, there is significant grounds to conclude that a high risk exists of catastrophic damage from the types of attacks terrorists are capable of mounting. Those damage levels would
overwhelm regional trauma, burn, and emergency medical capabilities. The LNG facilitys insurance is likely to be inadequate to fully compensate victims and to rebuild facilities.

I/L LNG Terrorism Target Caribbean Terrorists will attack Caribbean LNG tankers accounts for 70% of U.S. LNG imports Mitchell, 7- Lt. Col. B.S.C., University of the West Indies, St. Augustine [Colin, COUNTERING MARITIME TERRORISM IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN: IMPLICATIONS OF POSSIBLE MARITIME TERRORISM IN THE CARIBBEAN, U.S. Army Command and General Staff College., pp. 1314]//MM The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago is a major supplier of LNG to the eastern seaboard of the United States. It accounts for approximately 70 percent of US A imports of LNG. Each month a number of these tankers depart Trinidad and Tobago to transport this cargo to ports located mainly on the USA eastern seaboard, including the ports of Massachusetts, Louisiana, and Georgia. Today, nearly a quarter of US energy comes from natural gas, and within the next twenty years, as the public demands cleaner burning fuels, this
figure could increase to as much as one-third of American energy consumption.19 Since most of this fuel must be transported by ship,

increased demand will necessitate either more tankers heading to the current ports that process natural gas or more ports with natural gas terminals. Either way, there will be increased opportunities for potential terrorists to foment disaster. In addition to its role as a major LNG exporter, Trinidad and Tobago is also now the worlds largest exporter of ammonia and methanol. Approximately twenty tankers of ammonia and twenty-four tankers of methanol depart monthly for various locations around the world. Together these dangerous cargoes may prove to be an attractive target and have the potential to draw unwanted
attention to Trinidad and Tobago, whereby terrorists might see the opportunity for committing acts of aggression against the country itself or its major trade partner, the US.

Caribbean terrorists target LNG tankers

Kelshall ,4 Director of Bluewater Defence and Security Ltd. (Candyce Kelshall, 11/15, Radical Islam and
LNG in Trinidad and Tobago, http://www.iags.org/n1115045.htm)
Over the past several years, maritime attacks have become more violent, more frequent and clearly more organized . It is believed that militant groups, particularly in South East Asia, are practicing hijacking ships for their possible use as

weapons. Of all types of vessels oil and chemical tankers are perhaps the most attractive targets for terrorists. These vessels are manned by smaller crews and loaded with volatile substances that could potentially cause significant damage. According to the International Maritime Bureau (IMB) attacks against tankers are growing at an alarming rate. While all eyes are placed on the area surrounding the Malacca Straits, the world oil bottleneck, and on the Indonesian coast off Aceh, very little attention is placed on the U.S. underbelly of the Caribbean and the softer targets in the region closest to America's back yard: Trinidad, Venezuela and the Bahamas. These Caribbean countries are among the short list of natural gas producing countries and liquefied natural gas (LNG) and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) exporters. Trinidad and Tobago alone account for 80% (1st quarter 2004) of all U.S. LNG imports, up from 68% in 2002. Therefore, any incident involving an LNG tanker along the Caribbean routes could harm not only U.S. energy security but also the economies of the Caribbean islands, affecting tourism and other industries decades. Existing well heads in the U.S. are being
depleted while demand for natural gas is expected to rise 2% a year. Imports from. LNG and Tanker Terrorism U.S. Department of Energy figures paint a bleak picture for U.S. dependence on imported energy in the coming Canada, whose own energy demand is increasing, are projected to pick up some of the burden. But Canada's gas demand is growing faster than expected, also due to the gas intensive process of converting tar sands to crude oil, and thus its ability to export gas to the U.S. is being diminished. The U.S. will therefore be required

to import more of its gas in LNG form from Nigeria, Sao Tome, Trinidad, Venezuela and the Persian Gulf. Today 2% of total gas usage in the U.S. is derived from LNG. By 2010 this figure is likely to grow to 10%. LNG terminals and tankers present potential targets for terrorists. In the pre-9/11 world LNG tankers were considered among the safest ships at sea. These tankers are still as safe as is possible for a vessel of this nature today. But this statement is only valid if one pre-supposes that terrorists do not want an easily attainable w eapon of mass destruction. The potential for mass casualty maritime suicide terrorism has changed our perceptions of safety at sea especially when it comes to lean crewed LNG tankers and other PCG (Petro/chemical/gas) and ships. With maritime terrorists currently combing the world for ways to make their message reach as wide an audience as possible, LNG tankers could be their perfect mass casualty weapon.

I/L LNG Terrorism Infrastructure Vulnerable LNG infrastructure is uniquely vulnerable to terrorist attack Parfomak, 3 Specialist in Science and Technology, Resources, Science, and Industry Divisions at CRS ("Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Infrastructure Security: Background and Issues for Congress," www.energy.ca.gov/lng/documents/CRS_RPT_LNG_INFRA_SECURITY.PDF)
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) is a hazardous fuel frequently shipped in massive tankers from overseas to U.S. ports. LNG is also manufactured domestically and is often stored near population centers. Because LNG infrastructure is highly visible and easily identified, it can be vulnerable to terrorist attack. Since September 11, 2001, the U.S. LNG industry and federal agencies have put new measures in place to protect LNG infrastructure and respond to the possibility of terrorism. Nonetheless, public concerns about LNG risks continue to raise questions about LNG security. While LNG has historically made up a small part of U.S. natural gas supplies, rising gas prices and the possibility of domestic shortages are sharply increasing LNG demand . Faced with this growth in demand and public concerns, Congress is examining the adequacy of federal LNG security initiatives.

AT Oil Revenue Bolsters Castro Regime

We control unIqueness - cooperative drilling is the best chance to bring about Cuban democracy gradually ending the embargo would have bipartisan support Cala, 11 Journalist who specializes in geopolitics and energy (Andres, Energy Tribune, July 7, Drill, Cuba, Drill, http://www.energytribune.com/8204/drillcuba-drill#sthash.BeQ1eO1Z.dpbs)//SEP
Im no fan of the Castro regime. But the embargo continues to be a useless firewall. And as exploratory drilling starts near Key West, Washington should be strategizing how to use this to Americas advantage. This is probably the best chance the US has had since Fidel Castro took over in 1959 to influence Cuban policy and its democratic future. And its also the best argument to finally overcome Floridas banana republic politics to the benefit of American companies. Ending the embargo, at least gradually, would have bipartisan support, seconded by both environmental groups and oil companies.

Turn: Oil drilling benefits post-Castro regime and allows Cuba to gain political and economic independence Miroff, 09 (Nick, Washington Post, Cubas Undersea Oil Could Help Thaw Trade With U.S., http://www.washingtonpost.com/wpdyn/content/article/2009/05/15/AR2009051503416_2.html)//SEP
Because it would take three or more years for Cuba to fully develop its energy resources, according to Pin, U.S. participation in the island's energy sector could benefit a Cuban government not necessarily led by Fidel, 82, or Ral, 78. Helping Cuba develop its own reserves, he said, would allow the island to gain the political independence and economic footing needed to negotiate a reconciliation with the United States without outside interference."Since
Fidel Castro's 1959 revolution, Cuba's communist government has had to largely rely on foreign providers -- first the Soviet Union, now Venezuela -- to fulfill its energy needs," Pin said. Cuba's "petroleum dependency" on Hugo Chvez's government "could

be

used by Venezuela as a tool to influence a Cuban government in maintaining a politically antagonistic and belligerent position toward the United States," he said.

Add-Ons

Environmental Leadership 2AC

Drilling cooperation establishes a platform for U.S. environmental leadership and legitimacy in Latin America

Conell, 09-Research Associate at the Council on Hemispheric Affairs (Christina, The U.S. and Cuba: Destined to
be an Environmental Duo? 6/12/2009, http://www.coha.org/the-us-and-cuba-an-environmental-duo/)//ER Through accidents of geography and history, Cuba is a priceless ecological resource. The United States should capitalize on its proximity to this resource-rich island nation by moving to normalize relations and establishing a framework for environmental cooperation and joint initiatives throughout the Americas. Cuba is the most biologically diverse of all the Caribbean Islands. Since it lies just 90 miles south of the Florida Keys, where the Atlantic, the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico intersect, the U.S. could play a key role in environmental conservation as well as the region in general. However, when it comes to environmental preservation, the Obama administration is obstructing progress and hindering any meaningful cooperation with its current U.S.- Cuba policy. Climate change and environmental degradation are two of the most pressing contemporary issues. If President Obama is sincerely committed to environmental sustainability, he must forge international partnerships to implement this objective. Where better to begin than in the U.S.s own backyard, where Cuba has a huge presence. Only then can Cuba and the United States move forward to find joint solutions to environmental challenges. Environmental Riches and Implications Cubas glittering white sand beaches, extensive coral reefs, endemic fauna and diverse populations of fish compose the Caribbeans most biologically diverse island. Based on a per hectare sampling when compared to the U.S. plus Canada, Cuba has 12 times more mammal species, 29 times as many amphibian and reptile species, 39 times more bird species, and 27 times as many vascular plant species. Equally important, adjacent ocean currents and the island nations close proximity, carry fish larvae into U.S. waters, making protection of Cubas coastal ecosystems vital to replenishing the U.S.s ailing fi sheries. Therefore, preserving the marine resources of Cuba is critical to the economic health of North America s Atlantic coastal communities. The U.S. and Cuba also share an ancient deepwater coral system that stretches up to North Carolina. The islands 4,200 islets and keys support important commercial reef fish species such as snapper and grouper as well as other marine life including sea turtles, dolphins and manatees in both countries. Fifty percent of its flora and 41 percent of its fauna are endemic, signifying the importance of protecting the islands resources in order to safeguard the paradisiacal vision that Christopher Columbus observed when landing on the island in 1492. Oro Negro and Dinero The recent discovery of oil and natural gas reserves in the Florida straits in Cuban waters has attracted foreign oil exploration from China and India, both eager to begin extraction. Offshore oil and gas development could threaten Cubas and Floridas environmental riches. Together, Cuba and the U.S. can develop policies to combat the negative results coming from the exploitation of these resources. The increased extraction and refining of oil in Cuba could have detrimental effects on the environment. Offshore drilling is likely to increase with the discovery of petroleum deposits in the Bay of Crdenas and related areas. Excavation increases the possibility of oil spills, which would in turn destroy the surrounding ecosystem, including fisheries and coral reef formations. The amount of pollutants released into the air from refining crude oil and the amount of wayward oil residuals would also increase with drilling and extraction. Those conversant with the very sensitive habitat issues are calling for immediate consultations aimed at anticipating what should be done. However the U.S.s enormous oil usage and its development requirements will cultivate economic growth on the island. Washington must work with Cuba to create an ecological protection plan not only to establish an environmentally friendly public image, but to make it a reality as well. Degradation of the environment will deprive Cuba, in the long run, of one of its most important sources of present and future revenue: tourism. Consequently, it is in the mutual interests of the U.S. and Cuba to develop a cooperative relationship that will foster tourism and growth in a sustainable manner.

Environmental leadership key to hegemonycollapse inevitable absent cooperation Walter, 02- chief economist of Deutsche Bank (Norbert, An American Abdication, 8/28/2002, http://www.nytimes.com/2002/08/28/opinion/an-american-abdication.html)//VS FRANKFURT At present there is much talk about the unparalleled strength of the United States on the world stage. Yet at this very moment the most powerful country in the world stands to forfeit much political capital, moral authority and international good will by dragging its feet on the next great global issue: the environment. Before long, the administration's apparent unwillingness to take a leadership

role -- or, at the very least, to stop acting as a brake -- in fighting global environmental degradation will threaten the very basis of the American supremacy that many now seem to assume will last forever. American authority is already in some danger as a result of the Bush administration's decision to send a low-level delegation to the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg -- low-level, that is, relative to America's share of both the world economy and global pollution. The absence of President Bush from Johannesburg symbolizes this decline in authority. In recent weeks, newspapers around the world have been dominated by environmental headlines: In central Europe, flooding killed dozens, displaced tens of thousands and caused billions of dollars in damages. In South Asia, the
United Nations reports a brown cloud of pollution that is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths a year from respiratory disease. The pollution (80 percent man-made) also cuts sunlight penetration, thus reducing rainfall, affecting agriculture and otherwise altering the climate. Many other examples of environmental

degradation, often related to the warming of the atmosphere, could be cited. What they all have in common is that they severely affect countries around the world and are fast becoming a chief concern for people everywhere. Nobody is suggesting that these disasters are directly linked to anything the United States is doing. But when a country that emits 25 percent of the world's greenhouse gases acts as an uninterested , sometimes hostile bystander in the environmental debate, it looks like unbearable arrogance to many people abroad . The administration seems to believe it is merely an observer -- that environmental issues are not its issues. But not doing anything amounts to ignoring a key source of world tension, and no superpower that wants to preserve its status can go on dismissing such a pivotal dimension of political and economic -- if not existential -- conflict. In my view, there is a clear-cut price to be paid for ignoring the views of just about every other country in the world today. The United States is jettisoning its hard-won moral and intellectual authority and perhaps the strategic advantages that come with being a good steward of the international political order. The United States may no longer be viewed as a leader or reliable partner in policymaking : necessary, perhaps inevitable, but not desirable, as it has been for
decades. All of this because America's current leaders are not willing to acknowledge the very real concerns of many people about global environmental issues. No one can expect the United States to provide any quick fixes, but one

would like to see America make a credible and sustained effort, along with other countries, to address global environmental problems. This should happen on two fronts. The first is at home in the United
States, through more environmentally friendly policies, for example greater fuel-efficiency standards for cars and light trucks and better insulation for buildings. The second is international, through a more cooperative approach to multilateral attempts at safeguarding the environment . Simply rejecting international treaties (like the Kyoto Protocol) then failing to offer a better proposal cannot be an acceptable option for American policymakers. Much of the world has come together to help the United States in the fight against terrorism, out of the realization that a common threat can only be beaten through a cooperative effort. It is high time for the United States, metaphorically speaking, to get out of its oversized, gas-guzzling S.U.V. -- and join the rest of the world in doing more to combat global warming and protecting the planet

Ext International Perception of Environmental Leadership Key International perception is critical to environmental leadership Hayward, 08- previously the F.K. Weyerhaeuser Fellow at AEI.(Steven F., The United States and the Environment: Laggard or Leader?, 2/21/2008, http://www.aei.org/article/energy-and-the-environment/the-unitedstates-and-the-environment-laggard-or-leader/)//VS To borrow the blunt language of Generation X and the "Millennials," does the United States suck when it comes to the environment? Contrary to the perception expressed in the epigraphs above, the answer turns out to be a resounding No; the United States remains the world's environmental leader and is likely to continue as such. But to paraphrase the old slogan of the propagandist, if a misperception is repeated long enough, it will become an unshakeable belief. Environmental improvement in the United States has been substantial and dramatic almost across the board, as my annual Index of Leading Environmental Indicators
and other books and reports like it have shown for more than a decade.[3] The chief drivers of this improvement are economic growth, constantly increasing resource efficiency, innovation in pollution control technology, and the deepening of environmental values among the American public that have translated into changed behavior and consumer preferences. Government regulation has played a vital role to be sure, but in the grand scheme of things, regulation can be understood as a lagging indicator that often achieves results at needlessly high cost. Were it not for rising affluence and technological innovation, regulation would have much the same effect as King Canute commanding the tides. But in a

variation of the old complaint " what have you done for me lately?" there is widespread perception that the United States lags behind Europe and other leading nations on environmental performance . This perception is more strongly held abroad than here in the United States.

Ext Environmental Leadership Key to Heg Environmental leadership is key to overall U.S. hegemony Walter, 8/28/2002 (Norbert Chief Economist at the Deutsche Bank Group, New York Times, p. Lexis-Nexis) At present there is much talk about the unparalleled strength of the United States on the world stage. Yet at this very moment the most powerful country in the world stands to forfeit much political capital, moral authority and international good will by dragging its feet on the next great global issue: the environment. Before long, the administration's apparent unwillingness to take a leadership role -- or, at the very least, to stop acting as a brake -- in fighting global environmental degradation will threaten the very basis of the American supremacy that many now seem to assume will last forever. American authority is already in some danger as a result of the Bush administration's decision to send a low-level delegation to the World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg -- low-level, that is, relative to America's share of both the world economy and global pollution. The absence of President Bush from Johannesburg symbolizes this decline in authority. In recent weeks, newspapers around the world have been dominated by environmental headlines: In central Europe, flooding killed dozens, displaced tens of thousands and caused billions of dollars in damages. In South Asia, the United Nations reports a brown cloud of pollution that is responsible for hundreds of thousands of deaths a year from respiratory disease. The pollution (80 percent man-made) also cuts sunlight penetration, thus reducing rainfall, affecting agriculture and otherwise altering the climate. Many other examples of environmental degradation, often related to the warming of the atmosphere, could be cited. What they all have in common is that they severely affect countries around the world and are fast becoming a chief concern for people everywhere. Nobody is suggesting that these disasters are directly linked to anything the United States is doing. But when a country that emits 25 percent of the world's greenhouse gases acts as an uninterested, sometimes hostile bystander in the environmental debate, it looks like unbearable arrogance to many people abroad. The administration seems to believe it is merely an observer -- that environmental issues are not its issues. But not doing anything amounts to ignoring a key source of world tension, and no superpower that wants to preserve its status can go on dismissing such a pivotal dimension of political and economic -- if not existential -- conflict.

Relations - Taiwan Prolif 2AC Taiwan isolation causes a perceived legitimacy crisis

Brookes, 5 Senior Fellow for National Security Affairs and Director of the Asian Studies Center, Heritage Foundation (Peter, China's Influence in the Western Hemisphere, April 19, Heritage Lecture #873, http://www.heritage.org/research/asiaandthepacific/hl873.cfm)
One of China's tactics is an effort to politically isolate Taiwan internationally by enticing countries that currently diplomatically recognize Taiwan to shift allegiances to the PRC. The majority of the countries that recognize Taiwan are in Latin America, Africa, and the Pacific Islands. At present, six nations in Central America--Panama, Costa Rica, Nicaragua, El Salvador,
Honduras and Guatemala--retain full diplomatic relations with Taiwan. Beginning with Chile in 1970, all but one South American state-Paraguay--have moved to recognize Beijing. In the Caribbean, the Dominican Republic, Haiti, St. Kitts and Nevis, and St. Vincent and the Grenadines have relations with Taiwan. Dominica switched allegiances to the PRC last year. For Taiwan, the states of Central America and the Caribbean, and Paraguay, represent a relatively solid regional commitment to its status as a state separate from China. These states represent nearly half of Taiwan's diplomatic recognition around the world, now totaling 25 nations. Taiwan pays dearly to retain this diplomatic recognition, and if these states were to switch recognition from Taipei to Beijing, the damage to

Taiwan's political confidence and its claims of legitimacy as a state would be seriously undermined in Taipei's estimation. Leads to Taiwan proliferation

Galante and Chen, 6 James and Shieuan-Ju Center for Advanced Defense Studies (Bubble Tea Diplomacy: The Nuclear Solution to Taiwan's International Recognition," Defense Concepts Serious August 2006 http://www.c4ads.org/files/cads_report_bteadiplo_aug06.pdf)
Taiwans unique status, denied the status of nation-state by the international community and claimed by the Peoples Republic of China (PRC), creates a loophole that can lead to problematic consequences. In one such scenario, the Republic of China (ROC) could develop a nuclear weapons arsenal in a bid to gain international recognition, a move here termed bubble tea diplomacy. Indeed, as a non-state actor, the ROC is not bound to international treaties governing the development and deployment of potentially hostile means, chief amongst them the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT). Throughout history, a number of countries and non-state actors alike have successfully rallied international attention to their respective causes through violence. North Koreas test launch of ballistic missiles, Hezbollah and Hamas kidnappings of Israeli soldiers, Israels invasion of Lebanon and Irans nuclear missile program are all recent examples of this trend. For Taiwan to regain international attention, and in turn political recognition, one may argue that the island nation might engage in this new form of brinksmanship . Proliferation causes nuclear war

Sokolski, 9 Executive Director, Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (Henry, Avoiding a Nuclear Crowd, Policy Review, June/July, http://www.hoover.org/publications/policyreview/46390537.html)
Finally, several

new nuclear weapons contenders are also likely to emerge in the next two to three decades. Among these might be Japan, North Korea, South Korea, Taiwan, Iran, Algeria, Brazil (which is developing a nuclear submarine and the uranium to fuel it), Argentina, and possibly Saudi Arabia (courtesy of weapons leased to it by Pakistan or China), Egypt, Syria, and Turkey. All of these states have either voiced a desire to acquire nuclear weapons or tried to do so previously and have one or more of the following: A nuclear power program, a large research reactor, or plans to build a large power reactor by 2030. With a large reactor program inevitably comes a large number of foreign nuclear experts (who are exceedingly difficult to track and identify) and extensive training, which is certain to include nuclear fuel making.19 Thus, it will be much more
difficult to know when and if a state is acquiring nuclear weapons (covertly or overtly) and far more dangerous nuclear technology and materials will be available to terrorists than would otherwise. Bottom line: As more states bring large reactors on line more will become nuclear-weaponsready i.e., they could come within months of acquiring nuclear weapons if they chose to do so.20 As for nuclear safeguards keeping apace, neither the iaeas nuclear inspection system (even under the most optimal conditions) nor technical trends in nuclear fuel ma king (e.g., silex laser enrichment, centrifuges, new South African aps enrichment techniques, filtering technology, and crude radiochemistry plants, which are making successful, small, affordable, covert fuel manufacturing even more likely)21 afford much cause for optimism. This brave new nuclear world will stir existing security alliance relations more than it will settle them: In the case of states such as Japan, South Korea, and Turkey, it could prompt key allies to go ballistic or nuclear on their own. Nuclear 1914 At a minimum, such developments will be a departure from whatever stability existed during the Cold War. After World War II, there was a clear subordination of nations to one or another of the two supe rpowers strong alliance systems the U.S.-led free world and the Russian-Chinese led Communist Bloc. The net effect was relative peace with only small, nonindustrial wars. This alliance tension and system, however, no longer exist. Instead, we now have one superpower, the United States, that is capable of overthrowing small nations unilaterally with conventional arms alone, associated with a relatively weak alliance system (nato) that

includes two European nuclear powers (France and the uk). nato is increasingly integrating its nuclear targeting policies. The U.S. also has retained its security allies in Asia (Japan, Australia, and South Korea) but has seen the emergence of an increasing number of nuclear or nuclearweapon-armed or -ready states. So far, the U.S. has tried to cope with independent nuclear powers by making them strategic partners (e.g., India and Russia), nato nuclear allies (France and the uk), non -nato allies (e.g., Israel and Pakistan), and strategic stakeholders (China); or by fudging if a nation actually has attained full nuclear status (e.g., Iran or North Korea, which, we insist, will either not get nuclear weapons or will give them up). In this world, every nuclear power center (our European nuclear nato allies), the U.S., Russia, China, Israel, India, and Pakistan could have significant diplomatic security relations or ties with one another but none of these ties is viewed by Washington (and, one hopes, by no one else) as being as important as the ties between Washington and each of these nuclear-armed entities (see Figure 3). There are limits, however, to what this approach can accomplish. Such a weak alliance system, with its expanding set of loose affiliations, risks becoming analogous to the international system that failed to contain offensive actions prior to World War I. Unlike 1914, there is no power today that can rival the projection of U.S. conventional forces anywhere on the globe. But in a world with an increasing number of nuclear-armed or nuclearready states, this may not matter as much as we think. In such a world, the actions of just one or two states or groups that might threaten to disrupt or overthrow a nuclear weapons state could check U.S. influence or ignite a war Washington could have difficulty containing. No amount of military science or tactics could assure that the U.S. could disarm or neutralize such threatening or unstable nuclear states.22 Nor could diplomats or our intelligence services be relied upon to keep up to date on what each of these governments would be likely to do in such a crisis (see graphic below): Combine these proliferation trends with the others noted above and one could easily create the perfect nuclear storm: Small differences between nuclear competitors that would put all actors on edge; an overhang of nuclear materials that could be called upon to break out or significantly ramp up existing nuclear deployments; and a variety of potential new nuclear actors developing weapons options in the wings. In such a setting, the military and nuclear rivalries between states could easily be much more intense than before. Certainly each nuclear states military would place an even higher premium than before on being able to weaponize its military and civilian surpluses quickly, to deploy forces that are survivable, and to have forces that can get to their targets and destroy them with high levels of probability. The advanced military states will also be even more inclined to develop and deploy enhanced air and missile defenses and long-range, precision guidance munitions, and to develop a variety of preventative and preemptive war options. Certainly, in such a world, relations between states could become far less stable. Relatively small developments e.g., Russian support for sympathetic near-abroad provinces; Pakistani-inspired terrorist strikes in India, such as those experienced recently in Mumbai; new Indian flanking activities in Iran near Pakistan; Chinese weapons developments or moves regarding Taiwan; state-sponsored assassination attempts of key figures in the Middle East or South West Asia, etc. could easily prompt nuclear weapons deployments with strategic consequences (arms races, strategic miscues, and even nuclear war). As Herman Kahn once noted, in such a world every quarrel or difference of opinion may lead to violence of a kind quite different from what is possible today.23 In short, we may soon see a future that neither the proponents of nuclear abolition, nor their critics, would ever want. None of this, however, is inevitable.

Ext Taiwan Prolif=China War Taiwanese prolif causes war with China and allied prolif

Chanda, 4 Staff Writer, (Amit, WMA, World Markets Analysis, 10-18, Lexis)
According to David Albright, president of the Washington (US)-based Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS) thinktank, American analysts are worried about what it might mean if Taiwan is found to be engaged in an illicit nuclear weapons programme. He told news agency Agence France-Presse (AFP), 'There is a buzz about Taiwan, about what they might be up to', adding that the US administration was committed to preventing 'even feasibility studies of secret nuclear weapons development before it develops'. Even though the US government is committed to providing Taiwan with defensive weaponry under the auspices of the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, nuclear weapons remain a 'no-go' area, and any movement on this issue would surely meet with swift and decisive condemnation. As one analyst at the Taiwan Research Institute told AFP, 'I really don't think Taiwan would benefit from operating nuclear bombs'. There are several compelling motivations for Taiwan to shun a nuclear option, and, for these reasons, WMRC expects the Chen Shui-bian government will eschew the development of atomic weaponry: strong US opposition to any more countries joining the 'nuclear club', especially in a strategically sensitive regional flashpoint; a Taiwanese nuclear capability would substantially raise the stakes in any potential cross-straits military standoff, and would add a worrying risk dimension to what is already a very tense situation - potentially even triggering immediate conflict with mainland China; even without an direct military clash, a nuclear Taiwan could trigger a destabilising and costly regional arms race, potentially prompting countries such as Japan, Australia and South Korea to rethink their own position on nuclear weapons.

Coral Reef=Medicine

Coral reefs key to biodiversity, hurricane mitigation, medicine, and tourism Malone, 10 (Coral Reef Extinction, MALS 4020 Graduate Research and Writing at the University of Denver. http://elementalescapes.com/knoweverything/Coral_Reef_Extinction.pdf])//MM
Biodiversity Even though coral reef organisms have different behavior patterns, they all interact as members of the same marine ecosystem and participate as friendly neighbors by sharing common objectives of protecting their space to feed and reproduce . Coral reef ecosystem

biodiversity is in a constant state of change since various sea creatures such as sponges, bivalves, urchins, and fish live or feed on the different parts of the coral reefs and are all part of one tropic level or rank in the feeding hierarchy (Withgott and Brennan 2008). Each tropic level provides energy for the next level; from the coral reefs to seafood such as crab,
lobster, and fish. When humans consume seafood they are also consuming energy from every organism up the food web from the coral reefs. If corals are damaged by pollution, overfishing, or increased acidification the complex equilibrium of the reef will be permanently altered. Once biodiversity at all levels of the ocean life is lost to human impact, extinction occurs. Extinction is a normal process; however, humans are assisting the process along at a rapid speed. The result is loss of productivity and biodiversity, both of which having a serious economic consequence (NOAA 2010). Coastal Protection Coral reefs provide a function to our coastlines; they protect shorelines by absorbing wave energy and provide food and shelter for fish and other sea creatures. Biological structures, such as mangrove forests, salt marshes, seagrass beds, and coral reefs calm waves and, as a result, provide coastal protection. Corals also create shelter for mangrove and seagrass growth (Koch et al 2009). Without the coral reefs, tsunamis and ocean storms can destroy the coastlines such as happened in the Maldives in the Indian Ocean. The recent BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico (Dearen and Senensky 2010) discharged plumes of oil over the coral reefs along the coastline and marine scientists fear that Gulf currents will carry the oil to other reefs along the Florida Keys, Louisiana, and as far as Texas. Due to the political controversy over offshore drilling, this type of catastrophic disaster should have been avoided due to lessons learned from the Exxon Valdez spill. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency briefly allowed BP to shoot massive amounts of potentially toxic dispersing chemicals deep underwater to help protect vital marshes and wetlands on the Gulf Coast. But the tradeoff may result in significant effects on more sea life, including the coral reefs (Dearen and Senensky 2010). Big corporations such as BP and other oil moguls focus on profit rather than on ocean life when making decisions on offshore drilling. Wildlife protection takes a backseat to oil-company profits. Economic Value Coral reefs have an important function in sustaining the fish and shellfish populations that provide protein for billions of people. For thousands of years our ocean life has been a part of our lives, from watching the animal life move in the ocean to catching them for profit and food. Coral reefs are a source of medicine by providing new compounds and technology to treat serious diseases. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (2010) says that nearly half of the medicines in use today have their origins in natural products, mostly derived from terrestrial plants, animals, and microorganisms. Creatures found in coral ecosystems are important sources of new medicines being developed to induce and ease labors; treat cancer, arthritis, asthma, ulcers, human bacterial infections, heart disease, viruses, and other diseases, and provides sources of nutritional supplements, enzymes, and cosmetics. Coral reefs attract millions of visitors spending billions of dollars annually creating economic value to the local communities by scuba diving, snorkeling, diving tours, recreational fishing trips, hotels, and restaurants. Coral reefs can be enclosed as marine protected area (MPA) to preserve them for divers. The Similan Islands, also known as Mu Koh Similan Marine National Park off the coast of Thailand, became a MPA in 1982 where the coral reefs play a significant role in maintaining ecological stability and preserving biological diversity of flora and fauna, as well as offering visitors a variety of attractions for recreation and education. Over 50,000 tourists flocked to the islands back in 2003 to enjoy the beautiful, seemingly untouched, and uncommercialized natural conditions of the Parks flora and fauna. Tourism at Mu Koh Similan Marine National Park generates the highest revenue compared to other national parks in Thailand and scuba diving is one the major tourist attractions that brings in significant revenue to the Park each year (Tapsuwan and Asafu-Adjaye 2008).

Offcase Answers

T EE =Energy Investment

Economic engagement includes energy investment Hormats, 13 - Under Secretary for Economic Growth, Energy, and the Environment for the State Department (Robert, U.S. Economic Engagement with the Asia Pacific 6/12, http://www.state.gov/e/rls/rmk/210563.htm)//ER Energy But U.S. economic engagement with the Asia-Pacific region is not limited to traditional trade and investment issues. It includes energy as well. As part of the U.S.-Asia Pacific Comprehensive Energy Partnership, announced by President Obama at last years East Asia Summit, the U.S. Government has earmarked up to $6 billion in a line of credit over four years through the Export-Import Bank and the Overseas Private Investment Corporation. This will drive trade and investment in private
sector and public-private energy-related projects across the region. In addition to these resources, the United States will support capacity building programs through APEC and ASEAN, as well as with our bilateral partners, in the priority areas of interconnectivity, natural gas, renewables, and sustainable development.

T-EE=Offshore Energy Production Economic engagement includes cooperative offshore energy production Sullivan, 7 Former Assistant Secretary for Economic, Energy and Business Affairs (Dan, Economic Engagement: Building the U.S.-Azerbaijan Relationship, 8/16,http://20012009.state.gov/e/eeb/rls/rm/2007/91369.htm)
ASSISTANT SECRETARY SULLIVAN: Thank you very much Mr. Semed Seyidov for your kind introduction. Great to be back in Azerbaijan. Each time I visit Baku I feel the energy of a changing, growing and modernizing economy. I can actually see changes that have taken place since my last visit in February new roads, bridges and buildings all around the city. Clearly Baku is taking its place as a key r egional economic hub. The Azerbaijani economy is taking off, and the countrys oil and gas revenues have the potential to transform the country and the lives of the people here. The United States has deep and long-term interests in the Caspian region. We are committed particularly to helping ensure Azerbaijans prosperity, independence, and sovereignty. And we fully support President Aliyevs commitment to making Azerbaijan a modern, secular, democratic, and market-oriented state. Azerbaijans key role in global energy security, our important cooperation on regional security, and the countrys strategic position as the natural gateway between Europe and Central Asia make it an essential pa rtner for the United States. Over the past

we have intensified our engagement with Azerbaijan across three critical areas: 1) democracy and democratic reform; 2) security cooperation; and 3) energy cooperation and economic reform. Now, my Bureau, as the Assistant Secretary of State for Economic, Energy, and Business Affairs, I focus on the third area energy and economic cooperation, but we its important to recognize that all three of these areas are
year, due in large part to the intensive efforts of our Ambassador and your officials, absolutely very interconnected. We look for progress in all three because progress in each of these three areas reinforces progress in the others and we believe that these three areas moving forward will lead to lasting security, stability, and prosperity that all citizens desire and deserve. Energy Cooperation So let me first talk about the critical area of energy cooperation between our two countries. We have a well-established history of cooperation and trust in the field of energy. The BakuTbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline which as you know, is one of the most modern, state of the art pipelines in the world is a symbol and testament to that critical cooperation. Azerbaijans regional leadership was essential to bringing the BTC vision to reality. We are building on this tr adition of close cooperation in the energy field. This past March, my boss at the State Department Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Foreign Minister Mammadyarov signed a memorandum of understanding formally establishing the U.S.-Azerbaijan Energy Dialogue. I co-chair this Dialogue and we had very constructive meetings to further advance our common energy security goals in this area. What are these goals? Well, as we announced today, during the signing of a U.S. Trade and Development Agency grant that will go to SOCAR. We

believe we are now embarked on the next stage of Caspian Energy development , which would entail a number of things: 1) enhanced production of oil and gas in Azerbaijans offshore sector; 2) continued natural gas exports to
Georgia and Turkey, and initial exports to Greece and Italy; 3) further work on the Nabucco pipeline project, with Azerbaijans and perhaps Central Asias gas moving to markets in Central Europe, and 4) the emergence of Azerbaijan as an oil and gas transit country, as Azerbaijan continues its outreach to Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Azerbaijans continued leadership will be essential to achieve these goals, as we continue cooperation between th e U.S. and Azerbaijan, as well as working to deepen the cooperation between Azerbaijan and our European allies and the European Commission. The commencement

of the next phase of Caspian energy development, we believe has already begun. As I mentioned, today we signed a rather large feasibility study to construct an
oil and gas pipeline connecting Central Asia to Azerbaijan. This is a big and important step and it is the beginning of many good things to come in terms of the next phase of Caspian energy development. We believe the opportunities in this sector are great and can lead to lasting opportunity for the people of the region. Now is the time to seize these opportunities.

Politics Executive Shields Link Normal means is executive licensing shields the link no need to publicize activities

Pascual and Huddleston, 9 Carlos, VP and Director of Foreign policy, Brookings Institute, and Vicki, Visiting Fellow ( CUBA: A New policy of Critical and Constructive Engagement, April, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/reports/2009/4/cuba/0413_cuba.pdf)
Given the strong sentiments and expectations that Cuba engenders, it would be preferable for the Executive Branch to proceed discreetly . The president might first announce the principles he hopes to achieve in Cuba through a policy of en - gagement that promotes human rights, the well- being of the Cuban people, and the growth of civil society. To carry out the presidents vision, the Secretary of the Treasury will then have the responsibility to write and publish the changes to the Cuban Assets Control regulations by licensing activities designed to achieve these ends. The Secretary of State can quietly accomplish many diplomatic initiatives on a reciprocal basis without any need to publicize them. This quiet diplomacy might
be complemented by a refusal to engage in what some refer to as megaphone diplomacy, in which our governments trade in - sults across the Straits of Florida, and which only contributes to making the United States appear to be a bully.

President has the authority to license oil drilling and spill preparation activities fall within the scope of U.S. foreign policy CDA, 11-Center for Democracy in Americas, nonprofit group devoted to changing U.S. policy towards countrees of the Americas (, 9/9/11, http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf) //AK
As Robert Muse and Jorge Pion said last year, the administration has

regulatory authority to provide licenses and promulgate new regulations for any conceivable response to an environmental problem in Cuba . While
the Cuban Assets Control Regulations administered by OFAC include a variety of prohibitions that generally bar U.S. private sector participation, involvement or cooperation in connection with the exploration or development of energy sector resources associated with Cuba, or related environmental concerns, OFAC retains discretionary authority to license such activities by

U.S. persons where it is determined by the executive branch to be consistent with U.S. national interests. Such licensing determinations are generally within the scope of the authority of the President of the United States with respect to matters of U.S. foreign policy and national security By moving far beyond the meager licensing activity that has already taken place, the Obama administration could ensure that the international oil companies working with Cuba have full access to U.S. technology and personnel in order to prevent and/or manage a blowout.

CACR authorizes the President to modify individual embargo restrictions Rerurkar & Sullivan, 11 Neelesh, Specialist in Energy Policy, and Mark, Specialist in Latin American Affairs (Congressional Research Service, November 28, http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/R41522.pdf)//SEP
Since the United States imposed comprehensive economic sanctions on Cuba in the early 1960s, most financial transactions with Cuba have been prohibited, including U.S. investment in Cubas offshore energy sector. The Cuban Assets Control Regulations (CACR, found at 31 CFR 515), first issued by the Treasury Department in 1963, lay out a comprehensive set of economic sanctions against Cuba, including a prohibition on most financial transactions. The CACR have been amended many times over the years to reflect changes in policy and remain in force today. The Cuban Liberty and Democratic Solidarity Act of 1996 (P.L. 104-114), enacted in the aftermath of Cubas shooting down of two U.S. civilian planes in February 1996, codified the Cuban embargo, including all the restrictions under the CACR. The codification is especially significant because of its long-lasting effect on U.S. policy toward Cuba. The executive branch is prohibited from lifting the economic embargo until certain democratic conditions are met. The

CACR still provides the executive branch with the ability to modify the embargo restrictions, but the President cannot suspend or completely terminate the Cuban embargo regulations without first determining that a transition government or democratically-elected government is in power in Cuba.75 Some U.S. business and policy groups have called on Congress and the Administration to allow U.S. oil companies to become
involved in Cubas offshore oil development. Several legislative

initiatives were introduced in the 111th Congress (S. 774, H.R. 1918, and S. 1517) that would have specifically authorized such activities and amended U.S. law to allow for travel for such activities (see Legislative Initiatives below). A major business argument in favor of U.S. involvement in Cubas offshore energy sector is that U.S. failure to enter into the Cuban market completely hands over potential investment opportunities to foreign competitors.76 As mentioned above, national oil companies from Russia, China, Venezuela, and elsewhere have been investing in Cubas energy industry. In a 2009 report, the Brookings Institution offered several additional reasons for U.S. involvement in Cubas offshore development. The report maintains: that it would help reduce Cubas dependence on Venezuela for its oil imports; that it would increase U.S. influence in Cuba if U.S. companies had a significant presence in the county; that U.S. companies have the expertise to develop Cubas offshore oil and gas in a safe and responsible manner; and that it is preferable to have U.S. companies involved because they have higher standards of transparency than some foreign oil companies.77

Treasury department can modify the embargo to allow for new investment shields the link

Cave, 12 (Damien NYT, Easing of Restraints in Cuba Renews Debate on U.S. Embargo, 11/19, http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/20/world/americas/changes-in-cuba-create-support-foreasing-embargo.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)
In Washington, Mr. Gross is seen as the main impediment to an easing of the embargo, but there are also limits to what the president could do without Congressional action. The 1992 Cuban Democracy Act conditioned the waiving of sanctions on the introduction of democratic changes inside Cuba. The 1996 Helms-Burton Act also requires that the embargo remain until Cuba has a transitional or democratically elected government. Obama administration officials say they have not given up, and could move if the president decides to act on his own. Officials say that under the Treasury Departments licensing and regulation-writing authority , there is room for significant modification. Following the legal logic of Mr. Obamas changes in 2009, further expansions in travel are possible along with new allowances for investment or imports and exports, especially if narrowly applied to Cuban businesses.

Politics Turn GOP Loves Oil Turn Oil revenues and anti-Chinese sentiment generates GOP support

Bolstad, 8 (Erika, GOP claim about Chinese oil drilling off Cuba is untrue, 6/11, http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2008/06/11/40776/gop-claim-about-chinese-oildrilling.html#.UZwkw8rSmp4)
Why, ask some Republicans, should the United States be thwarted from drilling in its own territory when just 50 miles off the Florida coastline the Chinese government is drilling for oil under Cuban leases ? Yet no one can prove that the
Chinese are drilling anywhere off Cuba's shoreline. The China-Cuba connection is "akin to urban legend," said Sen. Mel Martinez, a Republican from Florida who opposes drilling off the coast of his state but who backs exploration in ANWR. "China is not drilling in Cuba's Gulf of Mexico waters, period," said Jorge Pinon, an energy fellow with the Center for Hemispheric Policy at the University of Miami and an expert in oil exploration in the Gulf of Mexico. Martinez cited Pinon's research when he took to the Senate floor Wednesday to set the record straight. Even so, the Chinese-drilling-in-Cuba legend has gained momentum and has been swept up in Republican arguments to open up more U.S. territory to domestic production. Vice President Dick Cheney, in a speech Wednesday to the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, picked up the refrain. Cheney quoted a column by George Will, who wrote last week that " drilling is under way 60 miles off

Florida. The drilling is being done by China, in cooperation with Cuba, which is drilling closer to South Florida than U.S. companies are." In his speech, Cheney described the Chinese as being "in cooperation with the Cuban government. Even the
communists have figured out that a good answer to higher prices means more supply." "But Congress says no to drilling in ANWR, no to drilling on the East Coast, no to drilling on the West Coast," Cheney added. The office of House Minority Leader John Boehner defended the GOP drilling claims. "A 2006 New York Times story highlights lease agreements negotiated between Cuba and China and the fact that China was planning to drill in the Florida Strait off the coast of Cuba," said spokesman Michael Steel. The China-Cuba connection also appeared in an editorial Monday in Investor's Business Daily, which wrote that "the U.S. Congress has voted consistently to keep 85 percent of America's offshore oil and gas off-limits, while China and Cuba drill 60 miles from Key West, Fla."

Politics Turn Drilling Lobby urn Drilling lobbyists support the plan generates GOP support

Kraus,10 (Clifford NYT, Drilling Plans Off Cuba Stir Fears of Impact on Gulf, 9/30, http://naturalresources.house.gov/news/documentsingle.aspx?DocumentID=209452)
New Mexicos governor, Bill Richardson,

a Democrat who regularly visits Cuba, said Cubas offshore drilling plans are a potential inroad for loosening the embargo . During a recent humanitarian trip to Cuba, he said, he bumped into a number of American drilling contractors all Republicans who could eventually convince the Congress to make the embargo flexible in this area of oil spills.

Politics Turn GOP Hates China U.S. lawmakers empirically have strong opposition to Chinese competition for oil

Franks, 11 (Jeff, China to play major role in Cuban oil development, 6/8, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/06/08/cuba-china-oil-idUSN08140650201106)
The prospect of Cuban drilling has touched off opposition from Florida lawmakers who say it threatens the state's environment and helps the Cuban government so hated by many in Miami, the center of the Cuban exile community. They have filed bills in Washington attempting to thwart the drilling by punishing foreign companies and individuals who take part in Cuba's exploration. U.S. oil companies cannot work in Cuba due to the longstanding U.S. trade embargo against the island. Repsol representatives met with U.S. Interior Secretary Ken Salazar last week to assure him they have solid safety plans in place should there be a blowout like that at the BP well last year off the Louisiana coast. "It sounds as if the (U.S.) administration is trying to figure out how to work cooperatively with Repsol, and that is definitely in the U.S. national interest," said Cuba expert Phil Peters at the Lexington Institute think tank in Arlington, Virginia. " Florida wants high standards of environmental protection in the gulf and Florida also doesn't want the U.S. to talk to Cuba. You can't have it both ways," he said. Chinese involvement in Cuban waters would add a new element to the U.S. debate over relations with Cuba. Former Vice President Dick Cheney mistakenly said in 2008 that China was drilling in Cuban waters 60 miles (96 km) from Florida, and used it to argue the U.S. should step up its own drilling. But China's presence also might be used by lawmakers who want to justify a hard line against Cuba's exploration plans. In 2005, the Chinese National Offshore Corp. tried to buy California-based oil company Unocal, but there was strong opposition in the U.S. Congress on grounds of national security. CNOOC withdrew its bid and China learned a lesson, Pinon said. "China learned how sensitive this country is to China's activities," he said. "China is a good political whipping boy ."

China CP U.S. Spill Tech/Expertise Key US expertise is key to environmental protection foreign countries lack resources and experience CDA 11 (Center for Democracy in the Americas, As Cuba plans to drill in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. policy poses needless risks to our national interest, 2011, http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf) 15. Cubas environmental plan relies on the competence of its foreign partners. Cubas environmental scheme is developed; they have laws and procedures in place. But the offshore approach depends on their partners doing the right thing and on participants obeying
international standards. Jorge Pion lists the qualifications of Cubas partners as follows: Indias ONGC discovered the dee p water Bombay High field and is well experienced in deep water operations, the same with Malaysias PETRONAS. Repsol finished at the end of last year (2009) the Buckskin project, a 28,000-plus feet deep well in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico about 200 miles south of Houston. Petrobras and Statoil are probably the most experienced. PetroVietnam is a partner with Conoco in the China Sea and they operate the deep water White Tiger field. The only one with no deep water experience is PDVSA. But remember most if not all of the drilling operations are to be conducted by the owner/operators of the leased semi-submersibles...not by the holders of the concessions. 46 That said, Lee Hunt reminded us: Companies

preparing to work in Cuba have adequate resources but not comparable to the combined U.S. government and industry resources that were available in the Gulf to manage the Macondo spill. 47 A foreign diplomat provided our delegation with one concerning evaluation. He said some of Cubas partners see Cuba as something of a laboratory for gaining experience in deep water. 16. Cubas officials frankly admit to familiar trade-offs in their environ - mental practices. When
our delegation met with staff at the Ministry of Foreign Investment (MINCEX), we asked about the impact of the BP spill on Cu bas goal of promoting direct foreign investment in the energy area and whether it diminished the zeal of investorsor Cubafor deep water drilling. The staff replied: No, not at all. We continue to work with foreign inves - tors to sign agreements for the prospecting of oil on the high seas. The rigs working now continue. But we are much stricter in those areas to avoid what happened with BP. We have not changed regulations. Our regulations include some controls. We have moved to strengthen the controls without making everyones life impossible. There is a balance: Develop tourism, increase tourist arrivals; Increase oil. Protect the fisheries. 48 The staff at MINBAS made a similar point. One challenge they related was the need to protect the beaches of Varadero, a major tourist attraction, which is also an important place for the oil and gas industry. While Cuba has a government structure and tough laws in place, it faces its own limits in experience and resources as well as complications in balancing economic and environmental priorities. In addition, because

of obstacles raised by the embargo, there are limits to what Cuba can do internationally to raise its environmental standards. 17. The U.S. embargo impinges on Cubas ability to provide maximal environmental protectionand is counter-productive to U.S. interests. The embargo prevents Cuba from having adequate access to the range of tools needed to drill safely or respond to emergencies should one develop. The embargo restricts Cubas access to knowledge and associations that would help it plan for or react to a spill. The embargo prevents meaningful participation by U.S. private sector firms in planning for reaction, contain - ment, or remediation efforts. While licenses allowing otherwise prohibited U.S. participation in such activities can be granted by OFAC to address exigent circumstances on a discretionary basis under the U.S. sanctions regulations, the embargo has forced Cuba to seek access to drilling equipment and support by convoluted means. 49 U.S. policy also subjects the adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Straits to entirely different regulatory schemes, leaving Florida with significantly less than adequate resources. Finally, the policy limits the ability of the U.S. to plan for disasters like the
BP spill or to cooperate with Cuba in anticipation of them.

US expertise and proximity are key to halting Cuban oil spills Pinon and Muse, 10 Jorge, Visiting Research Fellow with the Cuban Research institute at Florida international University and former president of amoco oil Latin America, and Muse, Washington, D.C.-based attorney with long and substantial experience in U.S.-Cuba legal matters. Both are advisors to the Brookings institution task Force on U.S.-Cuba Relations (Coping with the Next Oil Spill: Why U.S.-Cuba Environmental Cooperation is Critical, Brookings Institute, 5/10, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2010/5/18%20oil%20spill%20cuba%20pinon/0518_oil_spi ll_cuba_pinon.pdf) To respond effectively to an oil-related marine accident, any company operating in or near Cuban territorial waters will require immediate access to the expertise and equipment of U.s. oil companies and their suppliers. They are best positioned to provide immediately the technology and know-how needed to halt and limit the damage to the marine environment. obviously, the establishment of working relations between the United states and Cuba to facilitate marine
environmental protection is the first step in the contingency planning and cooperation that will be necessary to an effective response and early end to an oil spill. A good framework for such practical cooperation is the 1990 international Convention on oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Cooperation. The Convention is designed to encourage and facilitate international cooperation and mutual assistance in preparing for and responding to major oil pollution incidents. signatory nations are charged with developing and maintaining adequate capabilities to deal with such an emergency. in the case of Cuba and the United states, those capabilities must be transnational because there is no barrier to the movement of oil from one countrys waters to anothers. Cuba and the United states are also members of the international C onvention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) adopted in 1973. The MARPoL Convention is the main international convention covering prevention of pollution of the marine environment by ships from operational or accidental causes. The 1983 Convention for the Protection and Development of the Marine environment in the Wider Caribbean Region (Cartagena Convention) is another comprehensive umbrella agreement that provides the legal framework for cooperative regional and national actions to protect the marine environment. so, the commitment to marine environmental cooperation already exists at the often aspirational level of international accords. What is needed now is

for the United states and Cuba to develop appropriate regulatory and procedural protocols that ensure the free movement of equipment and expertise between the two countries that will be indispensable to a satisfactory response to a future oil spill. establishing specific protocols cannot wait because nothing in U.s.-Cuba relations is ever simple. for example, disaster response coordination between Cuba and the United states will involve various government departments such as the environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Coast Guard and the Department of Commerce because U.s.-origin equipment requires licenses for even temporary export to Cuba. The allocation of responsibilities and the development of interagency cooperation will take time. That luxury exists now, but will end very soon when the first drill bit hits the Cuban seabed.

U.S. deepwater technology is superior to other international companies Rogers, 12 Bacevich Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, focusing on science, technology, and national security (Will, Western Hemisphere Happenings: Cubas Continued Quest for
Offshore Oil December 17, 2012, http://www.cnas.org/blogs/naturalsecurity/2012/12/western-hemispherehappenings-cuba-s-continued-quest-offshore-oil.html)
With fresh memories of the Gulf Coast Deepwater Horizon accident, U.S. government officials including the U.S. Coast Guard have been increasingly worried about offshore oil drilling in non-U.S. waters that could impact the U.S. coast if an accident occurs. Increased activity in Cuban waters is a particular concern for U.S. officials. A March 2012 The Washington Post report noted that Cubas capacity to respond to an offshore oil spill is extremely limited, with only 5 percent of the resources needed to contain a spill approaching the size of the Deepwater Horizon disaster. These concerns have also raised the question of how the United States could respond to an oil spill in Cuban waters given the state of U.S.-Cuba relations, including export restrictions that prohibit U.S. companies from providing equipment or otherwise performing response functions that could be construed as aiding the Cuban government. In particular, the half-century old Cuban embargo obliges any company operating in Cuba to use only equipment that contains less than 10 percent U.S.-made parts in order to avoid sanctions. This means that companies operating in Cubas deepwater may not necessarily be using the most sophisticated or the safest tools and techniques shared by U.S. drilling companies. This might not be a concern in shallow water (several hundreds of feet deep), but in ultra deep water (depths beyond 1,500 meters), U.S. companies have a comparative advantage over many other international drilling companies. Moreover, deepwater drilling remains risky, even for U.S. companies. And while Zarubezhneft plans to drill in shallower water for its next project, it is still drilling in deep water: 6,500 meters. Given that Washington does not maintain official diplomatic ties with Havana, it is unclear how the United States and Cuba would cooperate around an oil spill that could have economic and environmental implications for U.S. coastal communities, and it is something that should be a concern for U.S. officials as drilling continues off Cubas coast.

U.S. is very experienced in responding to spills handles more than 100 spills every year NOAA,6/28 (Oil and Chemical Spills US Department of Commerce and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , 2013 http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/oil-and-chemical-spills)//EB Every year NOAA responds to more than a hundred oil and chemical spills in U.S. waters, which threaten life, property, and public natural resources. Spills into our coastal waters, whether accidental or intentional, can harm people and the environment and substantially disrupt marine transportation with potential widespread economic impacts. The Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R) is charged with responding to oil spills, chemical accidents, and other emergencies
in coastal areas. Under the National Contingency Plan, NOAA is responsible for providing scientific support to the Federal On-Scene Coordinator for oil and hazardous material spills. To support this mandate, OR&R provides 24-hour, seven-day-a-week response

to

spills.

China CP U.S. Drilling Rigs Key Foreign rigs cant be effectively built or maintained without the U.S. CDA, 11 (Center for Democracy in the Americas, As Cuba plans to drill in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. policy poses needless risks to our national interest, http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf) 19. Cubas effort to obtain a rig that complied with the embargo is an example of the perverse effects of U.S. policy. Repsol, a Spanish oil company, is paying an Italian firm to build an oil rig in China that will be used to explore for oil off the shores of Cuba. 57 Because of restrictions against U.S. content in technology used in Cuba, Repsol was forced to go through a circuitous route to secure an offshore drilling rig. 58 Under the embargo, rigs cannot contain more than 10% U.S. parts. Repsol contracted with Saipem, a subsidiary of Italys Eni, SpA, for a rig that has been built in China at the Yantai Raffles YRSL.NFF shipyard. 59 The rig, Scarabeo 9, is called by industry sources the latest technology for deepwater drilling operations. 60 According to Hunt, se veral deepwater drill ships operating in non- Cuban waters in the Gulf Coast were built by the same firm in China and are similar to the Saipem rig except that they include substantial and critical U.S. components. Although Jorge Pion told the Miami Herald that Scarabeo 9 conforms to the U.S. embargos content requirements, but contains a blow-out preventer manufactured in the United States, Lee Hunt is
not certain that the blow-out preventer in the rig destined for Cuba is of U.S. origin, crediting speculation that it was manufactured in Norway. 61 Either way, Hunt

poses problems: If it is a U.S. manufactured BOP (blow-out preventer): Saipem cant hire the U.S. manufacturer to commission the stack, test and certify its integrity because of the embargo . Saipem cant buy an OEM replacement (cant replace a damaged part with a U.S. part); it would need a copycat part, requiring the replacement to be flown in from Europe or Asia instead of the U.S. If it is Norwegian, the need for a replacement part would also necessitate a back-up to be flown in from overseas.
argues, this

China CP China Tech Fails China oil spill tech fails inefficient and lack proper materials Anna 10 Senior Correspondent for the Associated Press with a focus on Beijing (CARA- NBC News China oil spill doubles in size, called
'severe threat' 7/21/2010 http://www.nbcnews.com/id/38337393/ns/world_news-world_environment/t/china-oil-spill-doubles-size-calledsevere-threat/#.UdMb-fmgXlc) BEIJING China's largest reported oil spill emptied beaches along the Yellow Sea as its size doubled Wednesday, while cleanup efforts included straw mats and frazzled workers with little more than rubber gloves . An official warned the spill posed a "severe threat" to sea life and water quality as China's latest environmental crisis spread off the shores of Dalian, once named China's most livable city. One cleanup worker has drowned, his body coated in crude . "I've been to a few bays today and discovered they were almost entirely covered with dark oil," said Zhong Yu with environmental group Greenpeace China, who spent the day on a boat inspecting the spill. "The oil is half-solid and half liquid and is as sticky as asphalt," she told The Associated Press by telephone. The oil had spread over 165 square miles (430 square kilometers) of water five days since a pipeline at the busy northeastern port exploded, hurting oil shipments from part of China's strategic oil reserves to the rest of the country. Shipments remained reduced Wednesday. State media has said no more oil is leaking into the sea, but the total amount of oil spilled is not yet clear . Greenpeace China released photos Wednesday of inky beaches and of straw mats about 2 square meters (21 square feet) in size scattered on the sea, meant to absorb the oil. Fishing in the waters around Dalian has been banned through the end of August, the state-run Xinhua News Agency reported. "The oil spill will pose a severe threat to marine animals, and water quality, and the sea birds," Huang Yong, deputy bureau chief for the city's Maritime Safety Administration, told Dragon TV. At least one person died during cleanup efforts. A 25-year-old firefighter, Zhang Liang, drowned Tuesday when a wave threw him from a vessel, Xinhua reported. Officials, oil company workers and volunteers were turning out by the hundreds to clean blackened beaches. "We don't have proper oil cleanup materials, so our workers are wearing rubber gloves and using chopsticks," an official with the Jinshitan Golden Beach Administration Committee told the Beijing Youth Daily newspaper, in apparent exasperation. "This kind of inefficiency means the oil will keep coming to shore.

... This stretch of oil is really difficult to clean up in the short term."

China CP Relies On Partners Now

China relies heavily on foreign partners for oil drilling and spill cleanup technology Kurtenbach, 11writer for the AP (Elaine Kurtenbach, China Oil Spill: ConocoPhillips Struggling with Bohai Bay Cleanup, Huffington Post, September 9, 2011, http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/05/china-oil-spill-conocophillips_n_949745.html#)//IK
SHANGHAI -- The oil spills from offshore wells operated by ConocoPhillips in China's Bohai Bay are posing political and technical challenges for the oil company far messier than the crude and drilling mud seeping from the seabed. The company said Monday that it had complied with a government order to suspend all drilling, water injection and production at the affected Penglai 19-3 oil field, one of China's biggest. Operations are currently stopped at 180 producing wells and 51 injecting wells, for a total of 231 wells, said a statement by Houston, Texas-based ConocoPhillips, which operates the field in a venture with state-owned China National Offshore Oil Corp. CNOOC, which owns 51 percent of the venture, said the suspension of production in Penglai 19-3 would reduce output by 40,000 barrels a day, in addition to the 22,000 barrels a day lost with the shutdown of the two wells where the spills occurred. For such big oil companies, the loss is not a major blow, though for ConocoPhillips, Penglai 19-3 is its largest project in China, noted Thomas Grieder, analyst for Asia-Pacific energy at IHS Global Insight. The spills began in early June and have unleashed a flood of criticism inside China over how ConocoPhillips has handled the cleanup. The

State Oceanic Administration rejected the company's assertion that it had met an Aug. 31 deadline to completely clear up any damage and prevent further seeps. Chinese maritime authorities facing pressure from fisheries and environmentalists to minimize further damage to the already heavily polluted Bohai appear to have lost patience with the prolonged effort to staunch the oil seeps. "ConocoPhillips has not been able to address this problem for two months and the Chinese authorities are losing face. It's kind of an inevitable reaction to something that's been going on a while," Grieder said. Regardless of the tensions provoked by the spills, China is relying ever more heavily on foreign partners for the technology it needs to tap difficult to exploit deepwater oil reserves, said Grieder. According to ConocoPhillips, the spills released about 700 barrels of oil into Bohai Bay and 2,500 barrels of mineral oil-based drilling mud, which is used for lubrication, onto the seabed . All but a small fraction of that oil and mud has been recovered, and the small amounts still emerging are from earlier seeps that have been shifting under layers of sand on the seabed, it says. But the State Oceanic Administration contends that monitoring by satellite, underwater robots and other means shows the oil is still seeping. It criticized ConocoPhillips' containment measures as stopgap and said the company may have caused oil to seep through
faults in the seabed by putting too much pressure on the oil reservoir. Dong Xiucheng, a professor at the China University of Petroleum, described the accident as "unusual." "It is hard technically to find the reason and the exact location of the spill and to try to stop it since it is on the seabed not in a pipeline. Both ConocoPhillips and CNOOC must have tried to do it, but it takes time," Dong said. ConocoPhillips has pointed to safety concerns and other difficulties in capping and cleaning up the oil and mud in murky seas with minimal visibility. "Addressing the issue is rather complex," Grieder said. "They're trying to identify small cracks on the sea floor in a situation where you can't see much." ConocoPhillips said Monday that divers were continuing to search the ocean floor and that remote-controlled robots were taking seabed samples to monitor the situation. The company said it was working with CNOOC on a plan to reduce pressure in the oil reservoir and was preparing a revised environmental impact report. The maritime authority has said it is preparing to file lawsuits on behalf of those who suffered losses due to pollution from the spill. Apart from frictions over the pace and progress of the cleanup, state-run media and environmentalists have been lobbying for harsher penalties for such accidents current law calls for maximum fines of 200,000 yuan (less than $31,000). The official newspaper China Daily, in a harshly worded commentary Monday, said that a joint investigation by seven government departments found ConocoPhillips

China had "seriously violated operating rules." "Not only is the oil

spill worse than the company reported but, despite its assurances to the contrary, it has failed to bring the situation under full control and find and stop the sources of the spills," it said. "Obviously, China needs to learn a lesson from this incident." ConocoPhillips has denied allegations that it sought to mislead the maritime authority by falsely claiming to have stopped and cleaned up the oil seeps. The company said it was committed to complying with the law and conducting "all business activities with the highest ethical standards." "This commitment fully applies to how we conduct our business in China," it said. ConocoPhillips requested a correction of a weekend news report on state-run China Central Television. The report claimed that a ConocoPhillips China employee interviewed by marine radio said the company was deliberately deceiving the State Oceanic Administration in reporting that the oil spills had been fully contained and cleaned up. "The ConocoPhillips China employee interviewed by CCTV did not make the negative comment which CCTV is attributing to him," it said.

China CP - U.S. Proximity Key

U.S. proximity key China is 10,000 miles away Stephens, 11 staff writer (Sarah- Like oil and water in the gulf March 14, 2011 http://articles.latimes.com/2011/mar/14/opinion/la-oe-stephens-cuba-oil-20110314)//EB
Not only does the embargo prohibit U.S. firms from joining Cuba in any efforts to extract its offshore resources, thus giving the competitive advantage to foreign firms, but it also denies Cuba access to U.S. equipment for drilling and environmental protection an especially troubling policy considering the potential for a spill. The embargo also compels Cuba's foreign partners to go through contortions, such as ordering a drilling rig built in China and shipping it nearly 10,000 miles to Cuban waters , to avoid violating U.S. law.

Brazil CP Spill Response Too Aggressive Brazils aggressive oil spill response empirically compromises clean-up efforts Chevron proves

Lyons and Gilbert, 11 Journalists(John and David, Wall Street Journal, Chevron Raps Brazils Spill Response, 12/1, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203833104577070563261988108.html)//SEP
In an interview, Mr. Moshiri said the response is out of proportion and doesn't reflect Chevron's successful effort to cap the leak with no oil reaching the shorein just four days. He said Brazil's toughness may backfire by cooling oil-company interest for working

in Brazil, while creating a false expectation that Brazil's massive foray into ultradeep water will be accident free. "If there is such a magnitude of reaction for this kind of incident, just think what it would be for a spill three times the size," Mr. Moshiri said. "If anyone thinks that this [type of incident] is not going to repeat itself, I would like to talk to them."Mr. Moshiri said that Brazil's aggressive response complicated the leak repair. Chevron employees, for example, were pulled from repair work to be deposed by police investigators, he said. Normally, state agencies help with the critical work of stemming the leak before trying to assign blame. We managed to fix "the leak while the Federal Police
was gathering up employees to question them," Mr. Moshiri said. "It was an incredible burden."

Brazil CP Petrobras Overstretched Brazils Petrobras lacks competition and is severely overstretched mounting debt, project delays, declining production Romero, 13 New York Times bureau chief in Brazil, covering Latin America's Southern Cone (Simon, Petrobras, Once Symbol of Brazils Oil Hopes, Strives to Regain Lost Swagger, The New York Times, 3/26/13, http://www.nytimes.com/2013/03/27/world/americas/petrobras-brazils-oil-giant-struggles-to-regain-lostswagger.html?pagewanted=all&_r=0)//ER RIO DE JANEIRO Brazils oil production is falling, casting doubt on what was supposed to be an o il bonanza. Imports of gasoline are rising rapidly, exposing the country to the whims of global energy markets. Even the nations
ethanol industry, once envied as a model of renewable energy, has had to import ethanol from the United States. Half a decade has passed since Brazilians celebrated the discovery of huge amounts of oil in deep-sea fields by the national oil company, Petrobras, triumphantly positioning the country to surge into the top ranks of global producers. But now another kind of energy shock is unfolding: the colossal company, long known for its might, is losing the race to keep up with the n ations growing energy demands. Saddled with a nationalist mandate to buy ships, oil platforms and other equipment from lethargic Brazilian companies , the oil giant is now facing soaring debt, major projects mired in delays and older fields, once prodigious, that are yielding less oil. The undersea bounty in its grasp also remains devilishly complex to exploit. Now, instead of symbolizing Brazils rise as a global powerhouse, Petrobras embodies the sluggishness of the nations economy itself, which, after racing ahead at 7.5 percent in 2010, slowed to less than 1 percent last year, eclipsed by growth in other Latin American nations like Mexico and Peru. Until recently, Petrobras was second in value only to ExxonMobil among publicly traded energy companies. But its fortunes have tumbled to the point that it is now worth less than Colombias national oil company. That fall has accentuated an increasingly bitter debate here over PresidentDilma Rousseffs attempts to use Petrobras to shield the Brazilian population from the nations economic slowdown. Petrobras was once thought

indestructible, but that is no longer the case, said Adriano Pires, a prominent Brazilian energy consultant. Petrobras is now a tool of short-term economic policy, used to protect domestic industry from competition and fight inflation. This disastrous process will intensify if it is not reversed. Ms. Rousseff, like her predecessor an d political mentor, Luiz Incio
Lula da Silva, has relied heavily on state companies like Petrobras to create jobs and spur the economy. As a result, the president and her top advisers argue, unemployment remains near historic lows, an approach in economic management that contrasts sharply with Europe and the United States. In a recent speech, Ms. Rousseff explained that her governments priority was lifting millions of Brazilians out of poverty. Those betting against us, she warned, will suffer serious financial and political losses. Bolstering Ms. Rousseffs approval ratings going into a presidential election in 2014, Petrobras is building new refineries, pursuing offshore oil and buying most of its equipment from Brazilian companies, all of which have created tens of thousands of jobs and delivered some tangible political benefits. My life is better, said Adinael Soares Silva, 38, a welder at a Petrobras refinery under construction in Itabora, a city near Rio de Janeiro. He said he was pleased with his salary of about $800 a month. Where I was, I didnt have enough to have a savings account, he said. Now I do. But whi le Petrobras has helped keep Brazils unemployment low, around 5.4 percent, a growing chorus of critics points to the obvious problems at the

company, including its backlog of projects and an inability to satisfy the countrys thirst for oil, forcing it to import foreign gasoline and sell it at a loss. After Brazil made its deep-sea oil discoveries in 2007, the government pushed to put Petrobras firmly in control of the new areas, a move that critics say could strain the company even further . It was a
marked departure from the 1990s, when authorities ended Petrobrass monopoly as part of a radical restructuring of the econom y. Petrobras remained under state control but was exposed to market forces, emerging as a hybrid nimbly competing with foreign oil companies. Today, Petrobras seems far less nimble. In 2012, its production fell 2 percent, the first such decline in years. The international

energy industry is also changing, especially in the United States, as momentum shifts toward extracting oil and natural gas from onshore shale formations. Brazil is thought to have large shale reserves itself, but the government remains focused on
its costly deep-sea megaprojects. The United States is redrawing the global petroleum map , while in Brazil euphoria has given way to inertia, Folha de So Paulo, one of Brazils most influential newspapers, said in a recent editorial. Compounding matters, Brazils demand for gasoline surged about 20 percent in 2012, reflecting a car-manufacturing industry that has boomed partly as a result of government efforts to lift production. Petrobras still lacks enough refineries able to process crude oil, forcing it to buy increasing amounts of gasoline from abroad. And it is still losing money on gasoline imports as the government keeps domestic fuel prices relatively low, to keep inflation from accelerating in a slow-growing economy. Energy analysts contend that the government is using Petrobras to further its own political objectives. Ms. Rousseffs administration, for instance, has hewed to measures aimed at reviving the countrys shipbuilding industry, b y requiring Petrobras to buy many of its ships and oil platforms from Brazilian shipyards. But these ventures have struggled with large cost overruns of their own, sometimes delivering vessels late or not at all, cutting into Petrobrass hopes of meeting ambitious p roduction targets. Then there are the delays at oil refineries under construction. One such complex, in Pernambuco State, was conceived in 2005 as a way for Brazil to forge closer political ties with oil-rich Venezuela. Eight years later, Venezuela has yet to invest in the project, which has faced various delays as Petrobras shoulders the entire cost of building it.

Brazil CP U.S. Spill Tech/Expertise Key US expertise is key to environmental protection foreign countries lack resources and experience CDA 11 (Center for Democracy in the Americas, As Cuba plans to drill in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. policy poses needless risks to our national interest, 2011, http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Drilling_and_US_Policy.pdf) 15. Cubas environmental plan relies on the competence of its foreign partners. Cubas environmental scheme is developed; they have laws and procedures in place. But the offshore approach depends on their partners doing the right thing and on participants obeying
international standards. Jorge Pion lists the qualifications of Cubas partners as follows: Indias ONGC discovered the deep water Bombay High field and is well experienced in deep water operations, the same with Malaysias PETRONAS. Repsol finished at the end of last year (2009) the B uckskin project, a 28,000-plus feet deep well in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico about 200 miles south of Houston. Petrobras and Statoil are probably the most experienced. PetroVietnam is a partner with Conoco in the China Sea and they operate the deep water White Tiger field. The only one with no deep water experience is PDVSA. But remember most if not all of the drilling operations are to be conducted by the owner/operators of the leased semi-submersibles...not by the holders of the concessions. 46 That said, Lee Hunt reminded us: Companies

preparing to work in Cuba have adequate resources but not comparable to the combined U.S. government and industry resources that were available in the Gulf to manage the Macondo spill. 47 A foreign diplomat provided our delegation with one concerning evaluation. He said some of Cubas partners see Cuba as something of a laboratory for gaining experience in deep water. 16. Cubas officials frankly admit to familiar trade-offs in their environ - mental practices. When
our delegation met with staff at the Ministry of Foreign Investment (MINCEX), we asked about the impact of the BP spill on Cubas goal of promoting direct foreign investment in the energy area and whether it diminished the zeal of investors or Cubafor deep water drilling. The staff replied: No, not at all. We continue to work with foreign inves - tors to sign agreements for the prospecting of oil on the high seas. The rigs working now continue. But we are much stricter in those areas to avoid what happened with BP. We have not changed regulations. Our regulations include some controls. We have moved to strengthen the controls without making everyones life impossible. There is a balance: Develop tourism, increase tourist arrivals; Increase oil. Protect the fisheries. 48 The staff at MINBAS made a similar point. One challenge they related was the need to protect the beaches of Varadero, a major tourist attraction, which is also an important place for the oil and gas industry. While Cuba has a government structure and tough laws in place, it faces its own limits in experience and resources as well as complications in balancing economic and environmental priorities. In addition, because

of obstacles raised by the embargo, there are limits to what Cuba can do internationally to raise its environmental standards. 17. The U.S. embargo impinges on Cubas ability to provide maximal environmental protectionand is counter-productive to U.S. interests. The embargo prevents Cuba from having adequate access to the range of tools needed to drill safely or respond to emergencies should one develop. The embargo restricts Cubas access to knowledge and associations that would help it plan for or react to a spill. The embargo prevents meaningful participation by U.S. private sector firms in planning for reaction, contain - ment, or remediation efforts. While licenses allowing otherwise prohibited U.S. participation in such activities can be granted by OFAC to address exigent circumstances on a discretionary basis under the U.S. sanctions regulations, the embargo has forced Cuba to seek access to drilling equipment and support by convoluted means. 49 U.S. policy also subjects the adjacent waters of the Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Straits to entirely different regulatory schemes, leaving Florida with significantly less than adequate resources. Finally, the policy limits the ability of the U.S. to plan for disasters like the
BP spill or to cooperate with Cuba in anticipation of them.

US expertise and proximity are key to halting Cuban oil spills Pinon and Muse, 10 Jorge, Visiting Research Fellow with the Cuban Research institute at Florida international University and former president of amoco oil Latin America, and Muse, Washington, D.C.-based attorney with long and substantial experience in U.S.-Cuba legal matters. Both are advisors to the Brookings institution task Force on U.S.-Cuba Relations (Coping with the Next Oil Spill: Why U.S.-Cuba Environmental Cooperation is Critical, Brookings Institute, 5/10, http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2010/5/18%20oil%20spill%20cuba%20pinon/0518_oil_spi ll_cuba_pinon.pdf) To respond effectively to an oil-related marine accident, any company operating in or near Cuban territorial waters will require immediate access to the expertise and equipment of U.s. oil companies and their suppliers. They are best positioned to provide immediately the technology and know-how needed to halt and limit the damage to the marine environment. obviously, the establishment of working relations between the United states and Cuba to facilitate marine
environmental protection is the first step in the contingency planning and cooperation that will be necessary to an effective response and early end to an oil spill. A good framework for such practical cooperation is the 1990 international Convention on oil Pollution Preparedness, Response and Cooperation. The Convention is designed to encourage and facilitate international cooperation and mutual assistance in preparing for and responding to major oil pollution incidents. signatory nations are charged with developing and maintaining adequate capabilities to deal with such an emergency. in the case of Cuba and the United states, those capabilities must be transnational because there is no barrier to the movement of oil from one countrys waters to anothers. Cuba and the United states are also members of the international Convention for the Prevention of Pollution from Ships (MARPOL) adopted in 1973. The MARPoL Convention is the main international convention covering prevention of pollution of the marine environment by ships from operational or accidental causes. The 1983 Convention for the Protection and Development of the Marine environment in the Wider Caribbean Region (Cartagena Convention) is another comprehensive umbrella agreement that provides the legal framework for cooperative regional and national actions to protect the marine environment. so, the commitment to marine environmental cooperation already exists at the often aspirational level of international accords. What is needed now is for the United states and Cuba to develop appropriate regulatory and procedural protocols that ensure the free movement of equipment and

expertise between the two countries that will be indispensable to a satisfactory response to a future oil spill. establishing specific protocols cannot wait because nothing in U.s.-Cuba relations is ever simple. for example, disaster response coordination between Cuba and the United states will involve various government departments such as the environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Coast Guard and the Department of Commerce because U.s.-origin equipment requires licenses for even temporary export to Cuba. The allocation of responsibilities and the development of interagency cooperation will take time. That luxury exists now, but will end very soon when the first drill bit hits the Cuban seabed.

U.S. deepwater technology is superior to other international companies Rogers, 12 Bacevich Fellow at the Center for a New American Security, focusing on science, technology, and national security (Will, Western Hemisphere Happenings: Cubas Continued Quest for
Offshore Oil December 17, 2012, http://www.cnas.org/blogs/naturalsecurity/2012/12/western-hemispherehappenings-cuba-s-continued-quest-offshore-oil.html)
With fresh memories of the Gulf Coast Deepwater Horizon accident, U.S. government officials including the U.S. Coast Guard have been increasingly worried about offshore oil drilling in non-U.S. waters that could impact the U.S. coast if an accident occurs. Increased activity in Cuban waters is a particular concern for U.S. officials. A March 2012 The Washington Post report noted that Cubas capacity to respond to an offshore oil spill is extremely limited, with only 5 percent of the resources needed to contain a spill approaching the size of the Deepwater Horizon disaster. These concerns have also raised the question of how the United States could respond to an oil spill in Cuban waters given the state of U.S.-Cuba relations, including export restrictions that prohibit U.S. companies from providing equipment or otherwise performing response functions that could be construed as aiding the Cuban government. In particular, the half-century old Cuban embargo obliges any company operating in Cuba to use only equipment that contains less than 10 percent U.S.-made parts in order to avoid sanctions. This means that companies operating in Cubas deepwater may not necessarily be using the most sophisticated or the safest tools and techniques shared by U.S. drilling companies. This might not be a concern in shallow water (several hundreds of feet deep), but in ultra deep water (depths beyond 1,500 meters), U.S. companies have a comparative advantage over many other international drilling companies. Moreover, deepwater drilling remains risky, even for U.S. companies. And while Zarubezhneft plans to drill in shallower water for its next project, it is still drilling in deep water: 6,500 meters. Given that Washington does not maintain official diplomatic ties with Havana, it is unclear how the United States and Cuba would cooperate around an oil spill that could have economic and environmental implications for U.S. coastal communities, and it is something that should be a concern for U.S. officials as drilling continues off Cubas coast.

U.S. is very experienced in responding to spills handles more than 100 spills every year NOAA,6/28 (Oil and Chemical Spills US Department of Commerce and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration , 2013 http://response.restoration.noaa.gov/oil-and-chemical-spills)//EB Every year NOAA responds to more than a hundred oil and chemical spills in U.S. waters, which threaten life, property, and public natural resources. Spills into our coastal waters, whether accidental or intentional, can harm people and the environment and substantially disrupt marine transportation with potential widespread economic impacts. The Office of Response and Restoration (OR&R) is charged with responding to oil spills, chemical accidents, and other emergencies
in coastal areas. Under the National Contingency Plan, NOAA is responsible for providing scientific support to the Federal On-Scene Coordinator for oil and hazardous material spills. To support this mandate, OR&R provides 24-hour, seven-day-a-week response

to

spills.

Brazil CP U.S. Drilling Rigs Key Foreign rigs cant be effectively built or maintained without the U.S. CDA, 11 (Center for Democracy in the Americas, As Cuba plans to drill in the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. policy poses needless risks to our national interest, http://democracyinamericas.org/pdfs/Cuba_Dri lling_and_US_Policy.pdf) 19. Cubas effort to obtain a rig that complied with the embargo is an example of the perverse effects of U.S. policy. Repsol, a Spanish oil company, is paying an Italian firm to build an oil rig in China that will be used to explore for oil off the shores of Cuba. 57 Because of restrictions against U.S. content in technology used in Cuba, Repsol was forced to go through a circuitous route to secure an offshore drilling rig. 58 Under the embargo, rigs cannot contain more than 10% U.S. parts. Repsol contracted with Saipem, a subsidiary of Italys Eni, SpA, for a rig that has been built in China at the Yantai Raffles YRSL.NFF shipyard. 59 The rig, Scarabeo 9, is called by industry sources the latest technology for deepwater drilling operations. 60 According to Hunt, several deepwater drill ships operating in non- Cuban waters in the Gulf Coast were built by the same firm in China and are similar to the Saipem rig except that they include substantial and critical U.S. components. Although Jorge Pion told the Miami Herald that Scarabeo 9 conforms to the U.S. embargos content requirements, but contains a blow-out preventer manufactured in the United States, Lee Hunt is
not certain that the blow-out preventer in the rig destined for Cuba is of U.S. origin, crediting speculation that it was manufactured in Norway. 61 Either way, Hunt

poses problems: If it is a U.S. manufactured BOP (blow-out preventer): Saipem cant hire the U.S. manufacturer to commission the stack, test and certify its integrity because of the embargo . Saipem cant buy an OEM replacement (cant replace a damaged part with a U.S. part); it would need a copycat part, requiring the replacement to be flown in from Europe or Asia instead of the U.S. If it is Norwegian, the need for a replacement part would also necessitate a back-up to be flown in from overseas.
argues, this

Brazil CP Brazil Lacks Planning/Coordination Brazil is unprepared to handle oil spills lack of qualifications, coordination, contingency plan Petrobras itself admits The Economist, 11 (The Economist, Oil, water and trouble, 12/31/11, http://www.economist.com/node/21542179)//ER
In fact, the lawsuits, as opposed to the fines, may have more to do with internal Brazilian politics than foreigner-bashing. The federal government wants to put much of the pr-sal royalties in a national fund and give every state and municipality a share too. But negotiations in Congress have stalled. The Frade spill has given oil-producing states and municipalities, like Rio and Campos, which currently get the lion's share, a new argument. That quarrel will eventually be resolved. But a pullback of foreign companies risks hurting Brazil's prospects of becoming a new oil power. Developing the pr-sal fields requires global expertise. And oil companies everywhere rely on a few huge service providers: Transocean, for example, operates many of Brazil's offshore platforms, including some for Petrobras. According to David Zylbersztajn, a former ANP director, the Frade mishap shows just how unprepared Brazil is for a serious spill. He points to the unco-ordinated

response of different tiers of government, the navy and oil companies. If there is a national co ntingency plan, then nobody knows about it, he says. The federal government seems more interested in spending the money from the pr-sal oil than making sure it is drilled safely, says Ildo Sauer, a former Petrobras manager. Neither IBAMA nor the ANP is qualified to oversee safety and accident prevention. IBAMA knows more about forests than oilfields and the ANP's main
focus is auctioning drilling rights. They are all responsible, he says. They are demonising Chevron to absolve themselves from their own sins.

Brazil CP Brazil Focused on Own Reserves Brazils single oil company is already overburdened with drilling its own fields

Lyons and Gilbert, 11 Journalists (John and David, Wall Street Journal, Chevron Raps Brazils Spill Response, 12/1, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052970203833104577070563261988108.html)//SEP
At the same time,

Brazil needs the resources and expertise of international oil companies to help develop its deep-water finds, analysts say. Petrobras is among the best at deep-water work, but the size of Brazil's fields and the financial risk deep-water drilling entails are too great for one company to shoulder.
"We are committed to Brazil," Mr. Moshiri said. "We are going to work hard to convince (Brazil), that 'Let's get back to the normal operation. Let's be pragmatic, work together and try to be clear about what are the risks.' "

Petrobras too busy with its own fields it abandoned Cuba to concentrate at home Reuters, 11 (UPDATE 1-Petrobras has relinquished Cuba oil block official, Reuters, March 10, 2011, http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/03/10/cuba-oil-petrobras-idUSN1014172920110310)//TWR HAVANA, March 10 (Reuters) - Brazilian oil giant Petrobras (PETR4.SA) has withdrawn from an offshore oil exploration block in Cuba's waters that it leased amid great fanfare in 2008, a Brazilian official said on Thursday, citing poor prospects. Marco Aurelio Garcia, foreign policy adviser to President Dilma Rousseff, told reporters in Havana exploratory work off Cuba's northern coast had not shown good results and that Brazil wanted to concentrate on its own oil fields. Asked if state-run Petrobras had abandoned the offshore Cuba block, he said: "Yes, that was already decided some time back. Petrobras withdrew from that (block). We're sorry, but the truth is you have to work with tangible elements and there wasn't any security of that in this block". The decision appeared to be a blow to Communist-ruled Cuba's hopes for an oil bonanza from still-untapped offshore fields it says hold 20 billion barrels of oil. Petrobras signed up for one of Cuba's 59 offshore blocks in October 2008 in a Havana ceremony attended by then Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Cuban President Raul Castro. Lula, a close ally of former Cuban leader Fidel Castro, had vowed Petrobras would find oil for the Caribbean island, heavily dependent on imports from oil-rich socialist ally Venezuela. The Petrobras block was just offshore from Cuba's biggest oilfield, east of Havana. Garcia apologized for Brazil deciding to drop its Cuban block. "We're very sorry and the truth of things is that ... Brazil will have to concentrate on our prospecting," Garcia said in a press conference. "You know that we now have big reserves, maybe one of the biggest reserves in the world."

Petrobras will prioritize Brazilian reserves over Cuba best for its growth Pinon, 11- Jorge, visiting research fellow with FIUs Cuban Research Institute (Pin on Energy:
Petrobras pullout not a final verdict on Cubas oil, March 19, 2011, http://www.cubastandard.com/2011/03/19/pinon-on-energy-petrobras-pullout-not-a-final-verdict-on-cubasoil/)//TWR
More than 80 percent of the worlds crude oil production is in the hands of national oil companies (NOCs), the majority with a good track record of managing their national patrimony. But only a handful have been able to keep an arms-length relationship from their countrys politics du jour. Many governments treat their NOCs coffers as a petty cash box to finance their political or social agendas, without taking i nto consideration the huge amounts of capital that have to be reinvested, in order to maximize the NOCs return on assets and the life span of their hydrocarbon resources. A rare exception is Brazils Petrobras, which has demonstrated an envious independence from the central governments politics. This oil company is marching to the beat of its own drummer. In September of last year, Petrobras announced the sale of $67 billion worth of shares to finance its ambitious $224 billion, five-year investment plan, which is aimed at nearly doubling its current domestic crude oil production to 3.9 million barrels a day by 2014. The transaction generated $25.4 billion from the sale of preferred shares, giving the Brazilian government 55.6 percent of the voting shares; and another $39.2 billion from the sale of common shares, giving the government 48 percent of the common shares of Petrobras. The results of the sale demonstrated private investors trust in Petrobras future performance. Projects by poli tical allies Hugo Chvez of Venezuela and former Brazilian President Incio Lula da Silva such as the Gasoducto del Sur, the Abreu e Lima refinery, and the Carabobo heavy oil project have failed to materialize, because they were not able to meet Petrobras profitability and strate gic thresholds. In December of 2010, Petrobras executive Paulo Roberto Costa was quoted in the Oil & Gas Journal as saying that Petrobras was willing to build the Abreu e Lima alone if Venezuelan state oil company PdVSA did not meet its financial terms and conditions, thus underscor ing the national oil companys independence. Now, to Cuba. In October 2008, Petrobras was awarded, under a two -year exploration concession, the 1,600 km

Block 37, located in Cubas Strait of Florida just 12 miles north of the islands north coast between La Habana and Matanzas. After spending more than $8 million in seismic and geological work, Petrobras last fall determined that the hydrocarbon potential of the block did not warrant the additional expense of exploratory drilling and did not seek an extension of the concession. This was the second time that Petrobras attempts to develop Cubas oil and natural gas resources. In 1998, Braspetro, Petrobras former international subsidiary, drilled two dry holes in the area of Cayo Coco and Cayo Guillermo at a cost of over $15 million. The Cuban government awarded this area today Block L to Russias Zarubezhneft oil company last year; it is just south of The Bahamas Andros Island, were British and Norwegian oil companies are conducting seismic studies. The recent departure by Petrobras from Cuba should not be taken as a final verdict on Cubas oil and gas potential, or as a signal on possible strained political relations between the governments of Cuba and Brazil. It was simply an economic and strategic decision by Petrobras, following their long term-vision of focusing resources on developing its recently found 10 billion barrels of deepwater offshore oil and natural gas at the Santos and Campos basins, along the Atlantic coast. As Petrobras CFO Almhir Guilherme Barbassa recently stated in a Forbes interview: Petrobras has more to gain from organically growing its position in Brazil than going abroad to expand production.

Brazil CP Petrobras Broke Petrobras is broke no sustainable debt path Vilarino, 13 - MBA graduate from Insper in So Paulo, (Daniel, What Forbes Readers think about Brazils Petrobras, 2/13/13, Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2013/02/13/what-forbes-readers-think-aboutbrazils-petrobras/) //LA

More bad than good for Petrobras. Good news would be lower inflation, around 5 percent instead of 6 percent; lower primary surpluses in Brazil, meaning Treasury needs Petrobras dividends to maintain sustainable debt path. This year the government used some creative accounting to reach that goal. And then there is also bad public opinion on Petrobras as many pension funds holding that stock have lost a lot of money. Petrobras own creative accounting tricks were used to reach higher profit than expected in the fourth quarter, thus inflating ratios as P/E.
For example, Petrobras reclassified bonds available for sale into held for trading, so the reported gains of about R$1.54 billion ($710 million) are gone through income statements . Negatives can go on forever. Best to stop here.

Petrobras cannot generate revenue- fails to deliver to investors Rapoza, 13, Forbes reporter on Russia, India and China, (Kenneth, What Forbes Readers think about Brazils Petrobras, 2/13/13, Forbes, http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2013/02/13/what-forbes-readers-think-aboutbrazils-petrobras/) //LA Lets call it what it is, shall we? Petrobras is the ugly ducking of multinational oil companies. Some say it shouldnt be. In
2007, it discovered an estimated 40 billion barrels of oil off shore. New finds are almost annual, though much smaller. It is one of the most savvy deep water drillers in the Americas. And because of that, Rio de Janeirothinks that its newfound Petrobras oil wealth can one day make their Atlantic Ocean the North Sea ofNorway. Alas, Petrobras has been one big disappointment for investors. If you hold the iShares MSCI Brazil(EWZ) exchange traded fund, much of its losses over the last year can be credited to Petrobras . This year alone, Petrobras shares have fallen 16.92 percent. It doesnt track oil in the Americas, thats for sure. The S&P Crude Oil index is up 7 percent year to date. What about the competition? Well, for starters, Petrobras really has none in Brazil. But investors

looking for oil companies with lots of oil reserves used to consider PBR a favorite. At least that was the case back in the glory days of the Summer of 2008 when Goldman Sachs put a price target of $60 on it. Its now down to a little over $16. Hey, Chevron (CVX) is in Brazil. Theyre up 6.67 percent. Royal Dutch Shell(RDS.A) is too, but theyre down around 3 percent. Can you think of a more hated international oil company post-Gulf of Mexico oil spill than BP? It has major investments in Brazil, most of it onshore. Their stock is up 2.79 percent. ExxonMobil (XOM) is up about the same. It is hard to find an oil and gas company involved in both exploration and production that is doing as lousy as Petrobras. Even Repsol, relegated to the pink sheets, is doing better this year for investors, up 3.6 percent. Last week, Barclays Capital recommended an equal weight position on Petrobras, citing its prospects as a good long-term hold, but
warned of short term depression in the stock. BarCap had an overweight on the stock in June 2011. The stock was down over 34 percent that year. The only time Petrobras was worth an overweight was in the fourth quarter. Between Sept. 31 and mid-January, the stock was up over 20 percent.

Brazil CP - Petrobras Mismanagement Petrobras is politically mismanaged by Brazil caps on petrol prices, anti-inflation drive The Economist, 12 (The perils of Petrobras How Graa Foster plans to get Brazils oil giant back on track, The Economist from the Print Addition the Americas, November 17, 2012, http://www.economist.com/news/americas/21566645-how-gra%C3%A7a-foster-plans-get-brazils-oil-giant-backtrack-perils-petrobras)//TWR The main difficulty, however, has been political meddling. Since 2006, the government has capped petrol prices to combat inflation. To meet rising demand, Petrobras has been obliged to top up what it produces with imports, which it must then sell at a loss. Legal requirements to hire and buy parts locallyto support Brazilian jobs and industry have played havoc with budgets and schedules. The problem is a decade old. By Latin American standards, Petrobras is a model state oil company; nevertheless Brazils government has used it as an all-purpose policy tool. As well as keeping prices low, and helping the broader economy, it has been told to build refineries in the poor north-east to promote regional development. Rising resource nationalism meant that a previously liberal licensing regime was tweaked to make the firm the only principal operator allowed in pr-sal fields. That left other outfits frustrated and Petrobras overstretched. Ms Foster will need sharp elbows if she is to turn around Brazils biggest companywhich (with its suppliers) contributes around 10% of GDP, and on which the countrys industrial development largely depends. Ms Foster is a career engineer who worked her way up through Petrobras; a famously demanding manager; and a big change from her predecessor, Sergio Gabrielli, who was a smooth-talking politician first and an oilman second. She is diplomatic about her predecessor, but has replaced some of his acolytes and is reviewing many of the deals signed during his tenure. Her five-year corporate plan, launched in June, cut his production target for
2020 by 11%. In future, she promised, the firm would be more realistic. She describes her approach as a very intense manag ement adjustment. That has four parts, she explains: asset sales abroad, individual performance targets for each platform and manager, better maintenance and rigid cost control. Simply introducing scheduled maintenance shutdowns, she says, took re -educationa new mental model, obvious as it may seem. By the end of the year, every Petrobras employee will receive a signed letter from her setting out the cost-cutting goals. Investors may wonder why such measures are only now being introduced and whether, given the political interference, they will be enough. Ana Ares of Fitch, a ratings company, says the crucial test will be whether Ms Foster can negotiate a petrol-price rise. Having to sell imported fuel at a loss puts the firm in the odd position of doing better with lower international oil prices. Another sign will be whether she persuades the government to relax the rigid local-content rules. The market likes the way Graa talks, says Adriano Pires, an energy consultant. But realistic goals and good management get you nowhere if your majority shareholder wont let you do what you need to do. Such meddling can be worryingly myopic. For instance, the anti-inflation drive means that, at the pump, petrol undercuts ethanol, which is not regulated by price (most Brazilian cars can run on any mix of the two). As well as costing Petrobras billions in extra petrol imports, the price differential encouraged Brazilians to stop buying ethanol. That drove domestic investors towards other businesseswhich in turn meant Brazil was ill-prepared to capitalise when the United States scrapped tariffs on foreign ethanol at the start of the year. A shift from petrol back to ethanol would be the simplest way to put an end to pricey foreign oil imports, says Ms Foster, and extremely welcome to Petrobras. Ms Foster says the board which is dominated by government-appointed directorsnow understands that the firm needs to concentrate on pumping oil if it is to generate the revenues to invest in job-creating refineries and terminals. She rejects the idea that Petrobras is run for Brazils good, rat her than its own. Petrobras does not see developing the country as its core business, she says. Not every project that would be great for th e country will be undertaken, because not all are economically justified. It is in Brazils long-term interests, as well as Petrobrass shareholders, that she makes that line stick.

Brazil CP Brazil Lacks Spill Safety Plans Brazil cannot prevent or mitigate spills multiple accidents caused by lack of adequate safety plans Fick, 12 contributor for the Wall Street Journal (Jeff, Brazil oil spill contained; safety issue lingers, The Wall Street Journal: Market Watch, 2/2/12, http://www.marketwatch.com/story/brazil-oil-spill-contained-safety-issuelingers-2012-02-02)//ER RIO DE JANEIRO (MarketWatch) -- Brazil's second major offshore oil spill in four months appears to have been contained, but the latest accident raises questions about the safety of offshore drilling as the country barrels ahead with plans to develop massive offshore reserves. State-run energy giant Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR, PETR4.BR), or Petrobras, continued recovery operations
Thursday, piloting ships armed with water cannons to slice through oil slicks scattered over a 70-square-kilometer area in the Atlantic Ocean. Petrobras estimates that 160 barrels of crude were dumped into the sea after a tube ruptured during a long-term well test at the Carioca Nordeste field. In a written statement Thursday night, a government team evaluating the Petrobras effort reported that "the oil slick has been significantly reduced since yesterday [Wednesday]." The report said there was virtually no chance any oil would reach the Brazilian coastline. The team includes government environmental and energy experts as well as the Brazilian Navy. The latest accident comes after a spill in November at an offshore field operated by U.S. oil major Chevron Corp. (CVX). The timing of the debate is critical as Brazil embarks on an ambitious plan to develop the potentially massive offshore oil fields known as the pre-salt. Carioca Nordeste is part of a cluster of offshore oil discoveries made four miles deep in the Santos Basin off the coasts of Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo states. Government officials have said the fields could hold 50 billion barrels of crude. "It appears that the emergency plan was implemented very well," said a spokesman at Brazil's oil and gas regulator, ANP. Petrobras was able to contain the leak almost immediately, with the volume of the spill considered "very small," the spokesman said. While Petrobras's quick action was able to control the spill in short order , environmental regulators had already questioned the company's emergency plans. In August, the Sao Paulo state environmental regulator, Cetesb, rejected Petrobras's safety plan for the Santos Basin pre-salt fields as part of a broader safety review by the federal environment regulator, Ibam a.

Cetesb said Petrobras's safety plan only partially addressed issues surrounding communication, control, containment, collection of spilled oil and dispersion of oil slicks. Despite the misgivings, Ibama gave Petrobras's plan the green
light. At an event in Sao Paulo on Thursday, state energy Secretary Jose Anibal told reporters that Ibama should perhaps have given the Cetesb report more credence. "We've had three episodes in recent months that have left us uneasy," Anibal said, also recalling a

7.5-barrel oil spill in January during offloading of a Petrobras tanker ship.