Salient Features during June 2011

1. Introduction

Normally monsoon advances over most regions of country in the month of June except some parts of northwest India. There is large variability in the dates of advance of monsoon over different regions and also the quantum and distribution of rainfall which has a direct bearing on the sowing operations of kharif crops over many regions of India.

The Indian Summer Monsoon is characterized by large spatio-temporal variability on various scales. The pattern of variability in every year is unique. The South West Monsoon season extends through June to September. The normal date of onset of SW monsoon over Kerala is 1st June. The rainfall during June accounts for 19% of the seasonal rainfall. In this report some of the characteristic features displayed by the southwest monsoon 2011 in the month of June are analysed and presented in the following sections. This includes the observational aspects, anomalies in the circulation field and synoptic systems.

2. Onset and Advance 2.1 Monsoon onset over Kerala

The arrival of southwest monsoon current over the south Bay of Bengal and south Andaman Sea was delayed by about 10 days, due to non-conducive conditions for the development of convection over the region. The cross equatorial flow over the Arabian Sea, as evidenced from the speed and depth of the southwesterlies showed a rapid strengthening from 28th May, when the average speed became 20 knots at 925 hPa over the area bounded by Latitudes 5-10N and Longitudes 70-80E and the depth of westerly wind extended up to 600 hPa. The Kalpana-1 derived mean OLR values remained below 200 W m-2 over the region confined by Latitudes 5-10N and Longitudes 70-75E on 28th and 29th May (Fig.1). In association with these
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developments, the rainfall activity over Kerala increased. Widespread rainfall activity occurred and 84% and 79 % of the rainfall monitoring stations reported more than 2.5 mm rainfall respectively on 28th and 29th May (Fig.2). Thus, there has been a sharp rise, both in terms of spatial distribution as well as the quantum of rainfall reported by the stations spread over Kerala, Lakshadweep and south coastal Karnataka on 28 th and 29th May. Thus, all the objective criteria specified for the Monsoon Onset over Kerala were satisfied on 29th May and consequently onset of monsoon over Kerala was declared on 29th May, 2011. Also, the southwest monsoon set in over most parts of South Arabian Sea, some parts of Tamil Nadu, south Bay of Bengal and South Andaman Sea on 29th May 2011.

Though the arrival of monsoon was delayed by about 10 days with respect to the normal date of 20th May over the Andaman Sea, it was earlier than the normal date [1st June] over Kerala by 3 days.

Fig. 1

Fig. 2

2.2 Subsequent Advance over the country

Due to strengthening of the cross-equatorial flow over Arabian Sea and the northward movement of a vortex in the form of an upper air cyclonic circulation along the trough off the west coast, the monsoon further advanced rapidly and covered entire Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Goa, most parts of Karnataka and some parts of south Andhra Pradesh by 5th June. However, the transformation of this vortex into a low pressure area, its further intensification and stagnation over the east central Arabian Sea during the period from 6th 10th June, caused a short lived hiatus in the advance of the monsoon along the west coast. In the mean time, the convection over the Bay of Bengal picked up and with the formation of a low pressure area of short life span over the northwest Bay of Bengal, the eastern branch of monsoon advanced over some more parts of Bay of Bengal and northeastern states, with a delay of nearly 5 days.

The well marked low pressure area over the east central Arabian Sea, subsequent to its northward movement on 11th, intensified into a Depression on 12th and
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caused heavy to very heavy rainfall over coastal Saurashtra on 12 th June. Also, another cyclonic circulation formed over the North Bay of Bengal resulting in enhanced convection over the central parts of Bay of Bengal on 13th. As a consequence, the monsoon advanced into some more parts of Arabian Sea, parts of Saurashtra and most parts of the Bay of Bengal and parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh and coastal Orissa on 13th June. Subsequently, there had been a rather steady advance during 15th 26th June in association with formation of a Deep Depression over the northwest Bay of Bengal and its gradual west-northwestward movement. Though this synoptic situation caused the monsoon to cover most parts of the country outside western parts of Rajasthan and north Gujarat state, the weakening of the Arabian Sea branch of monsoon caused prolonged stagnation of the western limb in the Northern Limit of Monsoon (NLM).The NLM continued to pass through Lat. 22oN/ Long.60oE, Lat. 22oN/ Long.65oE, Porbandar, Ahmadabad, Udaipur, Ajmer, Pilani and Ganganagar from 26th - till date. Fig.3 shows the isochrones of advance of monsoon during June 2011.

Fig.3
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The north ward propagation of convection zone from equator to 200N during the period of 28th May to 10th June, in association of advance of monsoon, is evident from Fig. 4.

Fig. 4

3. Major Synoptic scale systems 3.1 Depression over the Arabian Sea (11th 12th June)

A cyclonic circulation lay over the southeast Arabian Sea and neighbourhood off Kerala coast on 1st June, over the southeast and adjoining east central Arabian Sea off south Karnataka-Kerala coasts on 2nd and over the east central Arabian Sea off Maharashtra coast on 4th & 5th. Under its influence, a low pressure area formed over the east central Arabian Sea off north Maharashtra coast on 6th. It persisted there on 7th and lay as a well marked low pressure area over the east central Arabian Sea and neighbourhood on 8th & 9th.It lay over the east central Arabian Sea off north Maharashtra coast on 10th. On 11th morning, it was seen over the east central Arabian Sea off north Maharashtra south Gujarat coasts. Subsequently, it concentrated into a Depression and lay centred over the northeast Arabian Sea, near
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Lat.20.0N/Long.71.5E (about 180 km northwest of Mumbai) at 1730 hrs IST of 11 th. It moved north northwestwards and crossed south Gujarat coast, nearly 25 km to the east of Diu, in the early morning of 12th and lay centred over Saurashtra, about 70 km south southwest of Amreli at 0830 hrs. IST of 12th. Gradually moving northwestwards, it weakened into a well marked low pressure area over Saurashtra and adjoining northeast Arabian Sea by 12th evening. It further weakened into a low pressure area over the same region on 13th and became less marked on 14th. However, the associated upper air cyclonic circulation extending up to 4.5 km.a.s.l. lay over Saurashtra & Kutch and neighbourhood on 14th and became less marked on 15th. Deep Depression over the northwest Bay of Bengal (16th 22nd June)

3.2

A cyclonic circulation extending up to mid-tropospheric levels lay over the north Bay of Bengal on 13th. Under its influence, a low pressure area formed over the northwest Bay of Bengal and neighbourhood on 14 th. It lay as a well marked low pressure area over the same region on 15th. It concentrated into a Depression and lay centred at 0830 hrs.IST of 16th, over the northwest Bay of Bengal, near Lat.21.5N / Long.89.0E (about 150 km. southeast of Kolkata). It moved north-northwestwards, intensified into a Deep Depression and crossed west Bengal coast, about 100 km. to the east of Sagar Islands, between 1630 & 1730 hrs.IST of 16th and lay over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh, near Lat.22.0N / Long.89.0E (about 100 km. southeast of Kolkata) at 1730 hrs. IST of 16th. Moving slightly northwards, it lay centred near Lat.22.5N / Long.89.0E (about 80 km. east of Kolkata) at 0830 hrs IST of 17 th.Subsequently moving westwards, it lay over Gangetic West Bengal, centred near Lat.23.0N / Long.88.0E (close to Burdwan) at 1730 hrs. IST of 17th. Further moving westwards, it lay over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining areas of Jharkhand, centered near Lat.23.0N / Long.87.0E, about 25 km. south of Bankura at 0830 hrs IST of 18th. It remained practically stationary over the same region at 1730 hrs IST of 18 th. Thereafter, moving westwards, it weakened into a Depression and lay centred at 0530 hrs IST of 19th, near Lat.23.0N / Long.85.5E, close to and to the east of Ranchi. It further moved northwards and lay over Jharkhand and adjoining Gangetic West Bengal, centred near
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Lat.23.5N / Long.85.5E (about 50 km. southeast of Ranchi) at 0830 hrs IST of 19th. Moving slightly westwards, it lay centred near Lat.23.5N / Long.85.0E (about 25 km. northnorthwest of Ranchi) at 1730 hrs IST of 19th. It further moved west-northwestwards and lay over Chattisgarh and adjoining areas of Jharkhand, about 50 km northeast of Ambikapur at 0830 hrs IST of 20th. Moving slightly northwestwards, it lay centred at 1730 hrs IST of 20th, over southeast Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood, about 150 km south of Varanasi. Subsequently moving west-northwestwards, it lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of 21st, over east Madhya Pradesh and adjoining south Uttar Pradesh, about 100 km. east of Rewa. Then, it moved westwards and lay centered at 1730 hrs IST of 21st, over the same area close to Satna. Continuing the westward movement, it lay centred at 0830 hrs IST of 22nd, over east Madhya Pradesh, close to and to the west of Panna and over the central parts of Madhya Pradesh and adjoining south Uttar Pradesh, about 50 km. east of Sagar at 1730 hrs IST. It subsequently moved northwestwards and weakened into a well marked low pressure area over west Madhya Pradesh and neighbourhood in the early morning of 23 rd.It lay over northwest Madhya Pradesh and adjoining areas of east Rajasthan and southwest Uttar Pradesh on 23 rd morning and lay as a low pressure area over the same region in the evening. It became less marked on 24th.However, the associated cyclonic circulation extending up to midtropospheric levels lay over central parts of Uttar Pradesh and adjoining north Madhya Pradesh, tilting southwestwards with height on 24th. It lay over east Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood on 25th, over south Uttar Pradesh and adjoining north Madhya Pradesh on 26th & 27th and over east Uttar Pradesh and adjoining Jharkhand and north Chattisgarh on 28th. Under the influence of the above cyclonic circulation, once again a low pressure area formed over east Uttar Pradesh and adjoining areas of north Madhya Pradesh on 29th. It persisted over east Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood on 30 th June and became less marked thereafter.

The tracks of these two low pressure systems are shown in Fig. 5.

Fig. 5

The anomalous circulation features for the month of June at 850 hPa level are shown in Fig. 6.

Fig. 6

The monthly mean Outgoing Long wave Radiation (OLR) for the month of June 2011 (Fig. 7) shows suppressed convection over western, northwestern and northern regions of India,

Fig. 7

4. Rainfall characteristics 4.1 Day to Day Rainfall (All India and four homogeneous geographical regions)

Fig. 8 depicts the daily rainfall reported by the plain stations over the country as a whole. It may be seen that during the month of June, the daily rainfall had been below the average value on only a few periods. Fig. 9 depicts the daily rainfall over the four homogeneous geographical regions. The rainfall over east and north east India remained below normal during many days of June, whereas the daily rainfall over south peninsular India was above normal during the first fortnight of June and decreased subsequently. The rainfall statistics for the month of June are given in Table 1.

Fig.8

Fig. 9
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Regions Country as a whole Northwest India Central India South Peninsula East & northeast India

Actual Rainfall (mm) 182.0 119.1 187.0 157.6 323.1 Table 1

Normal Rainfall (mm) 163.5 69.4 163.8 158.8 350.0

% Departure from LPA 11 72 14 -01 -08

4.2 Week by Week Rainfall

Fig. 10 depicts the week by week progress of monsoon over the meteorological subdivisions during the month of June and the cumulative value of percentage departures of rainfall in terms of excess, normal, deficient and scanty categories. The subdivisions over southern peninsular India and north India reported excess or normal rainfall during all the weeks of June, whereas the regions of Gujarat and northeast India reported deficient/scanty weekly rainfall all through the month of June.

Fig. 10
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4.3 Meteorological Sub-Divisionwise Rainfall

Fig. 11 is the meteorological sub-division wise area weighted percentage departure of rainfall for the period 1st 30th June. The rainfall is excess or normal over India except over Gujarat state, south east peninsular India and parts of north east India.

Fig. 11

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4.4 June vs seasonal rainfall Table 2 clearly shows that there is no 1:1 correspondence between June and seasonal rainfall. YEAR 1904 1914 1942 1952 1953 1966 1975 1993 1921 1930 1940 1955 1988 1991 1997 1999 2002 2003 1906 1918 1919 1922 1929 1961 1977 1984 1986 1990 1996 2000 JUN 103 101 104 103 101 104 105 104 105 108 105 110 107 109 106 105 109 110 114 114 110 115 110 111 114 113 111 112 115 115 JUL 92 124 119 96 112 84 106 96 96 103 101 85 127 91 98 91 46 107 99 53 105 106 98 118 113 92 86 96 93 92 Table 2 --------------x-----------Prepared by: Dr. Medha Khole and B.P. Yadav
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AUG 83 96 116 100 119 81 121 75 104 75 110 125 115 96 109 85 98 96 102 89 116 85 93 116 99 96 87 112 119 87

SEP 76 118 110 62 100 85 132 137 116 98 65 133 125 66 94 111 87 99 106 58 89 118 71 149 87 85 69 109 88 78

JUN-SEP 88 110 114 92 110 87 115 99 104 95 97 110 119 91 102 96 81 102 104 75 106 104 94 122 104 96 87 106 103 92

JUNE RAINFALL % OF NOR (>=110 TO<115)

JUNE RAINFALL % OF NOR (>=105 TO<110)

JUNE RAINFALL % OF NOR (>=100 TO <105)