Monday, March 25 2013 07:00AM - 08:00AM Morning Refreshments & Registration 08:00AM - 08:10AM Welcome Address 08:10AM - 09:00AM

Demand Driven Sales and Operations Planning in a Dynamic Industry

Ahmad Shamieh Head of Supply Chain Nokia

This session will give you an Introduction to demand driven S&OP process in a dynamic industry including how to build a bottom up forecast that can be reliable and used for replenishment & supply planning. You will learn: Challenges of getting reliable forecast in a dynamic industry Importance of customer collaboration Best practices>Br? 09:05AM - 09:55AM Leveraging Measures to Improve Demand Planning and Forecasting Sandeep Karkera Demand Planning Manager, Africa & Middle East Heinz

The current interest in performance measurements has led to a variety of supporting adages or clichs in the industry including, Anything measured improves, What you measure is what you get, You cant manage what you dont measure. Measurements support better decision making with metrics and KPIs, ensure supply continuity to support demand forecast and product requirements and create a systems based management model for supply chain optimization. Join us to learn how to quantify and show improvement throughout your demand planning and supply chain processes. You Will Learn: How to ensure supply continuity to support demand forecast and product requirement How to assess the input and performance metrics used in the forecasting process

 How to add value through the implementation of supply chain analytics 10:00AM - 10:15AM Mid-Morning Break | Visit with Exhibitors 10:15AM - 11:05AM Lessons Learned through Implementation of Short Term Demand Planning to Utilize Unpredicted Market Dynamics Faslin Abdul Khader Demand Planner, Supply Chain Danone Al Safi

Most companies preparing demand planning (M-1) monthly based on the sales history trends, seasonal and key initiatives. In the present competitive scenario, market demand is dynamic, especially in the dairy industry (very short shelf life, 7- 28 days) where small changes (even in the weather) in the market influence the demand. Weekly demand planning with daily demand split along with GPS. These weekly demand planning preparations are based on present market demand including current trends, competitors performance and the weather. You Will Learn: The importance of daily/weekly demand planning How to build a safety stock and utilize unpredicted market opportunities How to maximize customer service level with short term plan 11:05AM - 11:55AM Managing & Mitigating Risk in S&OP Gregory L. Schlegel Adjunct Professor, Supply Chain Risk Management Lehigh University

Supply chain disruptions have never been higher. And, the stakes have never been greater. Join this session to get a glimpse into the New Normal Supply Chain of Uncertainty, Complexity & Risk. Gain an understanding of how exemplars and early adopter companies are injecting risk into their S&OP processes and designing more resilient supply chains to manage uncertainty, complexity and risk.

You will learn to: The elements behind supply chain uncertainty, complexity & risk The emerging basics of supply chain risk management (SCRM) New techniques, tactics and tools to mitigate risk within the S&OP process How early adopter companies are injecting risk into their S&OP processes & building resilient supply chains 12:00PM - 01:00PM Lunch 01:00 - 01:30PM Break | Visit with Exhibitors 01:30 - 02:20PM Consumer/POS/ End User Data Based Forecasting & Planning Canlas Cesar CIO Del Monte Foods

Arup Chatterjee Managing Partner Inspirage

02:20 - 03:10PM Leveraging Measures to Improve Demand Planning and Forecasting Shariq Daudi Senior Manager of Financial Planning & Budgeting Ethiad Airways

Teddy Murphy Managing Director Miagen

Forecasting and planning can be a painstaking process within organizations. It is often a trade-off between quality and speed, yet good decision making is dependent on good planning. This presentation will demonstrate how with a well-structured driver based model you can decentralize the planning process to those who are responsible for its delivery. You will also hear how global organizations like DHL have automated their rolling forecasts and evolved to spend more time on

the business than on the process. You will learn: Key steps to structure a driver based planning model How to implement decentralized planning within your organization How to remove barriers to effective Forecasting and Planning 03:10 - 03:30PM Mid-Afternoon Break 03:30 - 04:20PM The Quest for Automatic Forecasting a 10 Year Case Study at Beiersdorf AG Kalle Rasmussens Project Manager - Demand Planning Beiersdorf

Sven Crone Deputy Director Lancaster Centre For Forecasting

With implementing SAP APO DP in 2002, Beiersdorf quickly realized that it could not reliably run forecasts automatically. Today, large parts of the assortment run fully automatic either using state-of-the art model selection routines, which mimic the expertise of a human demand planner in picking the best exponential smoothing model, or even implementing new methods of artificial Neural Networks for forecasting in APO. This presentation takes you on a 10-year journey of improving forecasting accuracy at Beiersdorf, supported by the Lancaster Centre for Forecasting and the novel add-on software Intelligent Forecaster. You will learn: How to tune SAP APO DP for fully automatic baseline forecasting How to enhance SAP APO DP with new forecasting methods tailored to your products and markets, like neural networks or ARIMA 04:25 - 05:15PM Round Robin Roundtable Discussion Increase your networking opportunities at IBFs Dubai Conference by joining us a t our very popular Round Robin, Round-Table Discussion session. Take this opportunity to bring up the most challenging questions facing your team, share your own war stories from the field and hear

and share best practices. Choose up to 3 of 5 timely and practical topics provided for your professional enhancement. These sessions will add new dimensions to the services you provide your customers, and increase your contact base in the demand planning & forecasting community. All experience levels are invited and welcome. Round Robin Topics Include: Creating a Reliable and Resilient S&OP Process The Career Track for Forecasting and Planning Professionals Worst Practices in Forecasting & Planning Leveraging Demand Signals such as POS to Improve Forecasting and Supply Chain Performance New Products: Successfully Forecasting the Success of Innovation Tuesday, March 26 2013 08:30AM - 09:20AM How to Effectively Deliver Bad News Such as Lower Forecasts Salah Chatah Power Systems Planning Department Saudi Aramco

This presentation sows how a forecaster can deliver the bad news effectively and without any change of the forecasting results by choosing the right words and context of his/her speech. The way words are spoken and the choice of words has a great impact on the context of the speech without changing the message behind it. This talk gives examples of utilizing the art speech to deliver bad news. Join us to learn how to illustrate the alternatives to present alternatives to a low forecast by changing the plan. This will also reduce the impact of the negative news on the management by using an alternative and achieving better results. You Will Learn: How the choice of the words, and proper arrangement of the context of a phrase can deliver bad news with less negative impact How a forecaster can present a positive message behind a lower forecast How lower forecasts can be presented as lessons for taking action instead of negative news 09:30AM - 12:30PM 1-Day Hands-On Statistical Forecasting & Planning Tutorial Sven F. Crone Deputy Director Lancaster Centre For Forecasting

Forecasting is a key element of any supply chain or S&OP process. Getting the forecast right at least gives you the opportunity to deliver real supply chain improvement. IBFs Full-Day Tutorial will help you understand your forecasting process and software from the ground up. It will lead you through an understanding of common techniques found in your forecasting software and help you take advantage of its untapped potential. If you dont have forecasting software, this tutorial will teach you what models and methods it should have and how to use them with MS-Excel. You have the option to bring your laptop to the event. Furthermore, we will discuss how to "cleanse" data and choose the right data for use with your models and systems. Greater forecasting performance can be achieved through better data management, which you will learn at the IBF Tutorial. SECTION 1 INTRODUCTION TO BUSINESS FORECASTING Types of forecasting methods a] Extrapolative (time series) methods b] Explanatory (cause-and-effect) methods c] Judgmental methods Data Considerations (e.g., missing data, outliers, etc.) SECTION 2 INTRODUCTION TO TIME SERIES: SIMPLE AVERAGES, MOVING AVERAGES AND EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING Among all models, time series models are the ones that are used most in business Level Change Percentage Change Weighted Average Percentage Change Moving Averages Sales Ratio Exponential smoothing models Classical Decomposition Model Automatic model selection 12:30PM - 01:30PM Lunch 01:30 - 04:30PM 1-Day Hands-On Statistical Forecasting & Planning Tutorial (cont.) Sven F. Crone Deputy Director Lancaster Centre For Forecasting

SECTION 3 REGRESSION MODELS FOR FORECASTING AND QUANTIFYING RELATIONSHIPS WITH PROMOTIONAL ACTIVITIES AND EVENTS Regression is the basic tool for measuring the relationship between variables. It is often used where some understanding of the underlying reasons for the forecasted values is needed. Classical regression model Simple regression Multiple regression Interpreting results Regression coefficients The R-squared statistic "t" ratios and statistical significance Multicollinearity Serial correlation Dummy variables Seasonality Dynamic (lagged) term SECTION 4 MEASURING FORECASTING PERFORMANCE The measurement of forecast accuracy is essential in any forecasting process. Goodness of fit vs. forecast accuracy Within-sample vs. out-of sample tests Rolling out of sample evaluations Three important statistical measures of forecast accuracy: MPE, MAPE, and WMAPE Designing an out-of sample test SECTION 5 PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER Forecasting Best Practices Summary Forecasting Processes Data Collection & Analysis Methods & Models Software & Systems People The 3-Cs..Collaboration, Communication & Commitment The Seven Pearls of Forecasting

MS-EXCEL WILL BE USED FOR DEMONSTRATION/EXERCISES. PLEASE BRING ALONG YOUR LAPTOP!