2002 Mathematics

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Hong Kong Examinations Authority

All Rights Reserved 2002

2002-AS-M & S1
HONG KONG EXAMINATIONS AUTHORITY
HONG KONG ADVANCED LEVEL EXAMINATION 2002

MATHEMATICS AND STATISTICS AS-LEVEL
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!
8.30 am 11.30 am (3 hours)
This paper must be answered in English

1. This paper consists of Section A and Section B.

2. Answer ALL questions in Section A, using the AL(E) answer book.

3. Answer any FOUR questions in Section B, using the AL(C)2 answer book.

4. Unless otherwise specified, all working must be clearly shown.

5. Unless otherwise specified, numerical answers should be either exact or given
to 4 decimal places.

2002-ASL
M & S

2002-AS-M & S2 1
SECTION A (40 marks)
Answer ALL questions in this section.
Write your answers in the AL(E) answer book.

1. Let
t
e
t
x
3
2
2
5
+ = and
t
e
t
y
2
2
10
+ = ( 0 = t ) . If 2
d
d
=
x
y
, find the value
of t .
(5 marks)

2. An adventurer estimates the volume of his hot air balloon by
t t 5
3
4
) ( V
3
+ = r r , where r is measured in metres and V is measured in
cubic metres. When the balloon is being inflated, r will increase with time
0) (> t in such a way that

t
e
t
+
=
2 3
18
) ( r ,
where t is measured in hours.

(a) Find the rate of change of volume of the balloon at t = 2 . Give your
answer correct to 2 decimal places.

(b) If the balloon is being inflated over a long period of time, what will the
volume of the balloon be? Give your answer correct to 2 decimal
places.
(5 marks)

3. A researcher modelled the number of bacteria ) N(t in a sample t hours after
the beginning of his observation by
kt
a t 900 ) ( N = , where ) 0 (> a and k are
constants. He observed and recorded the following data:

t (in hours) 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.0
) ( N t
1100 1630 2010 2980

The researcher made one mistake when writing down the data for N(t).

Express ln N(t) as a linear function of t and use the graph paper on Page 2 to
determine which one of the data was incorrect, and estimate the value of N(2.5)
correct to 3 significant figures.
(4 marks)

2002-AS-M & S3 2
Go on to the next page

Page Total

3. (Continued) Fill in the details in the first three boxes above and tie this
sheet INSIDE your answer book.

Candidate Number

Centre Number

Seat Number

2002-AS-M & S4 3

This is a blank page.

2002-AS-M & S5 4
4. An engineer conducts a test for a certain brand of air-purifier in a smoke-filled
room. The percentage of smoke in the room being removed by the air-purifier
is given by S . The engineer models the rate of change of S by

3
) 10 3 (
8100
d
d
+
=
t
t
t
S
,
where 0) (> t is measured in hours from the start of the test.

(a) Using the substitution 10 3 + = t u or otherwise, find the percentage of
smoke removed from the room in the first 10 hours.

(b) If the air-purifier operates indefinitely, what will the percentage of
smoke removed from the room be?
(5 marks)

5. Twelve boys and ten girls in a class are divided into 3 groups as shown in the
table below:

Group A Group B Group C
Number of boys 6 4 2
Number of girls 2 3 5

To choose a student as the class representative, a group is selected at random,
then a student is chosen at random from the selected group.

(a) Find the probability that a boy is chosen as the class representative.

(b) Suppose that a boy is chosen as the class representative. Find the
probability that the boy is from Group A.
(5 marks)

6. Assume that the number of passengers arriving at a bus stop per hour follows a
Poisson distribution with mean 5 . The probability that a passenger arriving at
the bus stop is male is 0.65 .

(a) Find the probability that 4 passengers arrive at the bus stop in an hour.

(b) Find the probability that 4 passengers arrive at the bus stop in an hour
and exactly 2 of them are male.
(5 marks)

2002-AS-M & S6 5
7. Twenty two students in a class attended an examination. The stem-and-leaf
diagram below shows the distribution of the examination marks of these
students.

Stem (tens) Leaf (units)
3 5 7
4 2 4 6
5 0 3 4 4 4 5
6 1 2 5 5 8
7 3 8 9
8 4 8
9 5

(a) Find the mean of the examination marks.

(b) Two students left the class after the examination and their marks are
deleted from the stem-and-leaf diagram. The mean of the remaining
marks is then increased by 1.2 and there are two modes. Find the two
deleted marks.

(c) Two students are randomly selected from the remaining 20 students.
Find the probability that their marks are both higher than 75 .
(5 marks)

8. A flower shop has 13 roses of which 2 are red, 5 are white and 6 are yellow.
Mary selects 3 roses randomly and the colours are recorded.

(a) Denote the red rose selected by R , the white rose by W and the yellow
rose by Y .
List the sample space (i.e. the set of all possible combinations of the
colours of roses selected, for example, 1R 2W denotes that 1 red rose
and 2 white roses are selected).

(b) Find the probability that Mary selects exactly one red rose.

(c) Given that Mary has selected exactly one red rose, find the probability
that only one of the other two roses is white.
(6 marks)

2002-AS-M & S7 6
SECTION B (60 marks)
Answer any FOUR questions in this section. Each question carries 15 marks.
Write your answers in the AL(C)2 answer book.

9. Lactic acid in large amounts is usually formed during vigorous physical
exercise, which leads to fatigue. The amount of lactic acid, M , in muscles is
measured in m mol/L. A student modelled the rate of change of the amount of
lactic acid in his muscles during vigorous physical exercise by

t
e
t
M
t
+
=
3
12
d
d
3
2
( 4 0 s s t ) ,
where t is the time measured in minutes from the start of the exercise.

(a) The student used the trapezoidal rule with 5 sub-intervals to estimate
the amount of lactic acid formed after the first 2.5 minutes of exercise.

(i) Find his estimate.
(ii) Find
|
|
|
|
.
|
\
|
+t
e
t
t
3
12
d
d
3
2
2
2
and hence determine whether his estimate
is an over-estimate or an under-estimate.
(5 marks)

(b) The student re-estimated the amount of lactic acid formed by expanding
t
e
t
+ 3
12
3
2
as a series in ascending powers of t .
(i) Expand
t + 3
1
and hence find the expansion of
t
e
t
+ 3
12
3
2
in
ascending powers of t as far as the term in
3
t .
(ii) By integrating the expansion of
t
e
t
+ 3
12
3
2
in (i), re-estimate the
amount of lactic acid formed after the first 2.5 minutes of
exercise.
(7 marks)

(c) The student wanted to predict the amount of lactic acid formed in his
muscles after the first 4 minutes of exercise. He decided to use the
method in (b) to estimate the amount of lactic acid formed. Briefly
explain whether his method was valid.
(3 marks)

2002-AS-M & S8 7
10. Let
1
) ( f
+
+
=
cx
b ax
x and
3
) 1 ( ) 3 ( ) ( g + = x x x , where a , b and c are
constants. It is known that ) 0 ( g ) 0 ( f = , ) 3 ( g ) 3 ( f = and ) 2 ( g ) 2 ( f = .

(a) (i) Find the values of a , b and c .

(ii) Find the horizontal and vertical asymptotes of the graph of
) ( f x .

(iii) Sketch the graph of ) ( f x and its asymptotes. Indicate the
point(s) where the curve cuts the y-axis.
(5 marks)

(b) (i) Find all relative extreme point(s) and point(s) of inflexion of
) ( g x .

(ii) On the diagram drawn in (a)(iii), sketch the graph of ) ( g x .
Indicate all the relative extreme point(s) and the point(s) of
inflexion, the point(s) where the graph cuts the coordinates axes
and where it cuts the graph of ) ( f x .
(6 marks)

(c) Find the area enclosed by the graphs of ) ( f x and ) ( g x .
(4 marks)

2002-AS-M & S9 8
11. A food store manager notices that the weekly sale is declining, so he starts a
promotion plan to boost the weekly sale. He models the rate of change of
weekly sale G by

20 8
8 2
d
d
2
+
=
t t
t
t
G
( 0 > t ) ,

where G is the weekly sale recorded at the end of the week in thousands of
dollars and t is the number of weeks elapsed since the start of the plan.
Suppose that at the start of the plan ( i.e. t = 0 ) , the weekly sale is
50 thousand dollars.

(a) (i) Express G in terms of t .

(ii) At the end of which week after the start of the plan will the
weekly sale be the same as at the start of the plan?
(5 marks)

(b) (i) At the end of which week after the start of the plan will the
weekly sale drop to the least?

(ii) Find the increase between the weekly sales of the 5th and the
6th weeks after the start of the plan.

(iii) The store manager decides that once such increase of weekly
sales between two consecutive weeks is less than 0.2 thousand
dollars, he will terminate the promotion plan. At the end of
which week after the start of the plan will the plan be terminated?
(6 marks)

(c) Let
1
t and
2
t be the roots of 0
d
d
2
2
=
t
G
, where
2 1
t t < . Find
2
t .
Briefly describe the behaviour of G and
t
G
d
d
immediately before and
after
2
t .
(4 marks)

2002-AS-M & S10 9
12. Two researchers want to study the distribution of the number of car accidents at
a certain road junction in a month. They have collected the data over 40
months as shown in the following table. They suggest that the distribution can
be modelled by a Poisson distribution.

Expected number of months * Number of car
accidents
Observed number
of months
Researcher A Researcher B
0 12 12.99 12.05
1 15 14.61 14.46
2 9 8.22 b
3 4 a 3.47
* Correct to 2 decimal places.

(a) Researcher A uses the sample mean of the distribution as the mean of
the Poisson distribution. Find the value of a in the table correct to 2
decimal places.
(3 marks)

(b) Researcher B tries to fit the data by using a Poisson distribution with
another mean.

(i) Find the mean used by researcher B.

(ii) Find the value of b in the table correct to 2 decimal places.
(2 marks)

(c) The absolute values of the differences between observed and expected
numbers are regarded as errors. The distribution with a smaller total
sum of errors will fit the data better. Which Poisson distribution will fit
the data better ?
(5 marks)

2002-AS-M & S11 10
12. (Continued)

(d) Assume the Poisson distribution that fits the data better in (c) is adopted
and 30% of car accidents involve a bus.

(i) Find the probability that the number of car accidents at the road
junction in a month is 3 and only one of which involves a bus.

(ii) Find the probability that the number of car accidents at the road
junction in a month is 3 and only the third car accident involves
a bus.

(iii) Given that the number of car accidents at the road junction in a
month is 3 and only one of which involves a bus, find the
probability that the third car accident involves a bus.
(5 marks)

2002-AS-M & S12 11
13. The weight of each bag of self-raising flour in a batch produced by a factory
follows a normal distribution with mean 400 g and standard deviation 10 g .
A bag of flour with weight less than 376 g is underweight, and more than
424 g is overweight.

(a) Find the probability that a randomly selected bag of flour

(i) is underweight;

(ii) is overweight.
(3 marks)

(b) If a bag of flour is either underweight or overweight, it will be
classified as a substandard bag by the director of the factory. The
director randomly selects 50 bags as a sample from the batch.

(i) Find the probability that there is no substandard bag of flour in
the sample.

(ii) Find the probability that there are no more than 2 substandard
bags of flour in the sample.
(5 marks)

(c) A wholesaler is only concerned about the number of bags of flour which
are underweight. The wholesaler re-analyses the sample of 50 bags of
flour in (b).

(i) Find the probability that in the sample there is only 1
substandard bag and it is not underweight.

(ii) Find the probability that there are no more than 2 substandard
bags in the sample and no underweight bag of flour in the
sample.

(iii) Given that in the sample there are no more than 2 substandard
bags, find the probability that there is no underweight bag in the
sample.
(7 marks)

2002-AS-M & S13 12
14. Suppose the number of customers visiting a supermarket per minute follows a
Poisson distribution with mean 6 .

(a) Find the probability that the number of customers visiting the
supermarket in one minute is more than 2 .
(3 marks)

(b) Suppose the amount $X spent by a customer in the supermarket follows
a normal distribution N( ,
2
o ) .

Probability distribution of the amount spent by a customer

Amount spent
($X)
Probability *
X < 100 0.063
100 s X < 200 0.364
200 s X < 300 1
a
300 s X < 400 2
a
X > 400 0.006
* Correct to 3 decimal places.

(i) Using the probabilities provided in the above table, find the
values of and o correct to 1 decimal place.
Hence find the values of
1
a and
2
a correct to 3 decimal
places.

(ii) What is the median of the normal distribution?

(iii) Given that a customer spends less than $200 , find the
probability that the customer spends more than $50 .

(iv) Find the probability that there are 5 customers visiting the
supermarket in a minute and exactly 2 of them each spends less
than $200 .
(12 marks)

END OF PAPER

2002-AS-M & S14 13
Table: Area under the Standard Normal Curve

z .00 .01 .02 .03 .04 .05 .06 .07 .08 .09

0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
.0000
.0398
.0793
.1179
.1554
.0040
.0438
.0832
.1217
.1591
.0080
.0478
.0871
.1255
.1628
.0120
.0517
.0910
.1293
.1664
.0160
.0557
.0948
.1331
.1700
.0199
.0596
.0987
.1368
.1736
.0239
.0636
.1026
.1406
.1772
.0279
.0675
.1064
.1443
.1808
.0319
.0714
.1103
.1480
.1844
.0359
.0753
.1141
.1517
.1879

0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
.1915
.2257
.2580
.2881
.3159
.1950
.2291
.2611
.2910
.3186
.1985
.2324
.2642
.2939
.3212
.2019
.2357
.2673
.2967
.3238
.2054
.2389
.2704
.2995
.3264
.2088
.2422
.2734
.3023
.3289
.2123
.2454
.2764
.3051
.3315
.2157
.2486
.2794
.3078
.3340
.2190
.2517
.2823
.3106
.3365
.2224
.2549
.2852
.3133
.3389

1.0
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.4
.3413
.3643
.3849
.4032
.4192
.3438
.3665
.3869
.4049
.4207
.3461
.3686
.3888
.4066
.4222
.3485
.3708
.3907
.4082
.4236
.3508
.3729
.3925
.4099
.4251
.3531
.3749
.3944
.4115
.4265
.3554
.3770
.3962
.4131
.4279
.3577
.3790
.3980
.4147
.4292
.3599
.3810
.3997
.4162
.4306
.3621
.3830
.4015
.4177
.4319

1.5
1.6
1.7
1.8
1.9
.4332
.4452
.4554
.4641
.4713
.4345
.4463
.4564
.4649
.4719
.4357
.4474
.4573
.4656
.4726
.4370
.4484
.4582
.4664
.4732
.4382
.4495
.4591
.4671
.4738
.4394
.4505
.4599
.4678
.4744
.4406
.4515
.4608
.4686
.4750
.4418
.4525
.4616
.4693
.4756
.4429
.4535
.4625
.4699
.4761
.4441
.4545
.4633
.4706
.4767

2.0
2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
.4772
.4821
.4861
.4893
.4918
.4778
.4826
.4864
.4896
.4920
.4783
.4830
.4868
.4898
.4922
.4788
.4834
.4871
.4901
.4925
.4793
.4838
.4875
.4904
.4927
.4798
.4842
.4878
.4906
.4929
.4803
.4846
.4881
.4909
.4931
.4808
.4850
.4884
.4911
.4932
.4812
.4854
.4887
.4913
.4934
.4817
.4857
.4890
.4916
.4936

2.5
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.9
.4938
.4953
.4965
.4974
.4981
.4940
.4955
.4966
.4975
.4982
.4941
.4956
.4967
.4976
.4982
.4943
.4957
.4968
.4977
.4983
.4945
.4959
.4969
.4977
.4984
.4946
.4960
.4970
.4978
.4984
.4948
.4961
.4971
.4979
.4985
.4949
.4962
.4972
.4979
.4985
.4951
.4963
.4973
.4980
.4986
.4952
.4964
.4974
.4981
.4986

3.0
3.1
3.2
3.3
3.4
.4987
.4990
.4993
.4995
.4997
.4987
.4991
.4993
.4995
.4997
.4987
.4991
.4994
.4995
.4997
.4988
.4991
.4994
.4996
.4997
.4988
.4992
.4994
.4996
.4997
.4989
.4992
.4994
.4996
.4997
.4989
.4992
.4994
.4996
.4997
.4989
.4992
.4995
.4996
.4997
.4990
.4993
.4995
.4996
.4997
.4990
.4993
.4995
.4997
.4998

3.5 .4998 .4998 .4998 .4998 .4998 .4998 .4998 .4998 .4998 .4998

Note: An entry in the table is the proportion of the area under the entire curve which is between z = 0
and a positive value of z . Areas for negative values of z are obtained by symmetry.

z 0
A(z)
x e z A
z
x
d
2
1
) (
0
2
2
)
=
t
2002-AS-M & S15 14
2002
Section A

1. 6 ln
5
1
= t

2. (a) The rate of change = 173.35 m
3
/h

(b) The volume of the balloon will be 920.49 m
3
.

3. 900 ln ) ln ( ) ( N ln + = t a k t
2440 ) 5 . 2 ( N ~

4. (a) The percentage of smoke removed is 25.3125% .

(b) 45% of smoke will be removed.

5. (a) The required probability =
28
15

(b) The required probability =
15
7

6. (a) The required probability is 0.1755 .

(b) The required probability is 0.0545 .

7. (a) Mean = 61

(b) The deleted marks are 54 and 44 .

(c) The required probability is
19
1
.

8. (a) The sample space is
{ 1R 2W ,1R 1W 1Y , 1R 2Y , 2R 1W , 2R 1Y , 1W 2Y , 2W 1Y, 3W , 3Y } .

(b) The required probability is
13
5
.

(c) The required probability is
11
6
.

2002-AS-M & S16 15
2002
Section B

9. (a) (i) t 0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2 2.5

t
M
d
d
4 4.78496 5.84320 7.24875 9.10480 11.55161
M = 55161 . 11 4 [
2
5 . 0
d
3
12
5 . 2
0
3
2
+ ~
+
)
t
t
e
t

)] 1048 . 9 24875 . 7 8432 . 5 78496 . 4 ( 2 + + + +
= 17.3788 (m mol/L)

(ii)
t
e
t
M
t
+
=
3
12
d
d
3
2
,

2
3
2
2
3
2
3
2
3
2
) 3 (
) 2 3 ( 4
) 3 (
3 3
2
12
3
12
d
d
t
e t
t
e
t
e
t
e
t
t
t t t
+
+
=
(
(
(
+
=
|
|
|
.
|
\
|
+

and
t
t
e
t
t t
t
e
t
3
2
3
2
3
2
2
2
) 3 ( 3
) 2 6 9 ( 8
3
12
d
d
+
+ +
=
|
|
|
.
|
\
|
+

0
d
d
d
d
2
2
>
|
.
|
\
|
t
M
t
(for 5 . 2 0 s s t )
So,
t
M
d
d
is concave upward on [0, 2.5] .

Hence it is over-estimate.

2002-AS-M & S17 16
(b) (i) =
+ t 3
1
)
27
1
9
1
3
1
1 (
3
1
3 2
+ + t t t
+ + =
3 2
81
1
27
1
9
1
3
1
t t t

=
t
e
3
2
+ + + +
3 2
)
3
2
(
! 3
1
)
3
2
(
! 2
1
3
2
1 t t t
+ + + + =
3 2
81
4
9
2
3
2
1 t t t

t
e
t
+ 3
12
3
2
=
)
81
1
27
1
9
1
3
1
( 12
3 2
+ + t t t )
81
4
9
2
3
2
1 (
3 2
+ + + + t t t
= + + + +
3 2
81
4
9
4
3
4
4 t t t

(ii) t
t
e
t
d
3
12
5 . 2
0
3
2
)
+
~
)
+ + +
5 . 2
0
3 2
d )
81
4
9
4
3
4
4 ( t t t t
=
5 . 2
0
4 3 2
81
1
27
4
3
2
4
(
+ + + t t t t
= 16.9637 (m mol/L)

(c) The expansion is valid only when
1
3
1 < <
t

3 3 < < t
Hence 3 0 < s t ( as t > 0 )
this method is not valid to estimate the amount of lactic acid for t > 3 .

2002-AS-M & S18 17
10. (a) (i) ) 0 ( g ) 0 ( f =
b = 3 (1)

) 3 ( g ) 3 ( f =
0
1 3
3
=
+
+
c
b a

0 3 = +b a (2)

) 2 ( g ) 2 ( f =
5
1 2
2
=
+
+
c
b a

5 10 2 = + c b a (3)

Using (1) and (2) ,
a = 1

Using (3) , c = 1

(ii)
1
3
) ( f
+
+
=
x
x
x
1
1
1
3
1
lim ) ( f lim =
+
+
=

x
x
x
x x

The horizontal asymptote is 0 1 = + y

The vertical asymptote is 0 1 = + x

2002-AS-M & S19 18
(iii)

(b) (i) g'(x) =
2 3
) 1 ( ) 3 ( 3 ) 1 ( + + x x x
= ) 2 ( ) 1 ( 4
2
+ x x
g"(x) =
2
) 1 ( 4 ) 2 ( ) 1 ( 8 + + x x x
= ) 1 ( ) 1 ( 12 + x x
g'(x) = 0 x = 1 or 2
g"(2) = 36 < 0

g(x) is maximum when x = 2 and g(2) = 27
the maximum point is at (2, 27) .

g"(x) = 0 x = 1 or 1
x x < 1 x = 1 1 < x < 1 x = 1 x > 1
x + 1 0 + + +
x 1 0 +
g"(x) 0 + 0
g(1) = 0 , g(1) = 16
(1, 0) and (1, 16) are points of inflexion of g(x) .
x
y
O 0 1 = + y
0 1 = + x
3
3
10
20
30
) ( f x y =
1 2
2002-AS-M & S20 19
(ii)

(c) Using the graphs, the area is

) (
+
+
+
3
0
3
d
1
3
) 1 ( ) 3 ( x
x
x
x x
=
)
)
`
+
+
3
0
2 4
d
1
4
1 ) 3 8 6 ( x
x
x x x
=
)
|
.
|
\
|
+
+ + +
3
0
2 4
d
1
4
4 8 6 x
x
x x x
=
3
0
2 3 5
) 1 ( ln 4 4 4 2
5
1
(
+ + + + x x x x x
= 4 ln 4
5
267

1 = y ( 1 ,0)
y
1
2
O
10
30
20
2
3
x
(1, 16)
(2, 27)
(2, 5)
(0, 3) (3, 0)
) ( g x y =
) ( f x y =
0 1 = + x
2002-AS-M & S21 20
11. (a) (i)
)
+
= t
t t
t
G d
20 8
8 2
2

C t t + + = ) 20 8 ( ln
2

When 0 = t , G = 50 .
20 ln 50 = C
20 ln 50 ) 20 8 ( ln
2
+ + = t t G

(ii) For G = 50,
50 20 ln 50 ) 20 8 ( ln
2
= + + t t
20 20 8
2
= + t t
0 8
2
= t t
t = 0 or t = 8 .
At the end of the 8th week, the weekly sale is the same as
at the start of the promotion plan.

(b) (i)
] 4 ) 4 [(
) 4 ( 2
20 8
8 2
d
d
2 2
+
=
+
=
t
t
t t
t
t
G

0
d
d
=
t
G
when t = 4
Since 0
d
d
<
t
G
when t < 4
and 0
d
d
>
t
G
when t > 4 ,

G is least at t = 4 .
At the end of the 4th week, the weekly sale is least.

(ii) ) 5 ( ) 6 ( G G ) 20 ln 50 5 (ln ) 20 ln 50 8 (ln + + =
4700 . 0
5
8
ln ~ = (thousand dollars)
2002-AS-M & S22 21
(iii) 2 . 0 ) ( ) 1 ( < + t G t G
} 20 ln 50 ] 20 ) 1 ( 8 ) 1 {ln[(
2
+ + + + t t
2 . 0 } 20 ln 50 ) 20 8 {ln(
2
< + + t t
2 . 0
20 8
13 6
ln
2
2
<
+
+
t t
t t

0 ) 13 20 ( ) 6 8 ( ) 1 (
2 . 0 2 . 0 2 2 . 0
> + e t e t e
t < 3.94316 or t > 13.09015
0
d
d
<
t
G
when 0 < t < 4 , G is decreasing
94316 . 3 < t is rejected.
t = 14 .
Thus the promotion plan will be terminated at the end of the 15th
week.

(c)
20 8
8 2
d
d
2
+
=
t t
t
t
G

2 2
2
2
2
) 20 8 (
) 8 2 )( 8 2 ( ) 20 8 ( 2
d
d
+
+
=
t t
t t t t
t
G

2 2
) 20 8 (
) 6 )( 2 ( 2
+

=
t t
t t

0
d
d
2
2
=
t
G
when t = 2 or t = 6 . 6
2
= t
Although G keeps increasing,

t
G
d
d
increases immediately before t = 6 ,

t
G
d
d
decreases immediately after t = 6 .
2002-AS-M & S23 22
12. (a) Let
1
be the sample mean of car accidents at the road junction in a month.

1
=
40
4 3 9 2 15 1 12 0 + + +
= 1.125
Let X be the number of car accidents at the road junction in a month.
For researcher A ,
) 3 ( P 40 = = X a
=
125 . 1
3
! 3
125 . 1
40
e
08 . 3 ~

(b) For researcher B , let the mean be
2
. Then
(i) ) 0 ( P 40 05 . 12 = = X

2
40 05 . 12

= e

2
=
40
05 . 12
ln
~ 1.1998
(ii) ) 6732 . 8 (
! 2
1998 . 1
40 ) 2 ( 40
1998 . 1
2
~ ~ = =
e X P b ~ 8.67
(c) For the number of car accidents is 4 or more, the expected number of months
observed by researcher A is
10 . 1 ) 08 . 3 22 . 8 61 . 14 99 . 12 ( 40 ~ + + +

Let
TSE
1
= Total sum of errors for model fitted by researcher A
=
_
1
f f
0 E

= 10 . 1 0 08 . 3 4 22 . 8 9 61 . 14 15 99 . 12 12 + + + +
~ 4.18
For the number of car accidents is 4 or more, the expected number of months
observed by researcher B is
35 . 1 ) 47 . 3 67 . 8 46 . 14 05 . 12 ( 40 ~ + + +

TSE
2
= Total sum of errors for model fitted by researcher B
=
_
2
f f
0 E

~ 35 . 1 0 47 . 3 4 67 . 8 9 46 . 14 15 05 . 12 12 + + + +
= 2.8

As TSE
2
< TSE
1
, researcher B fits the data of car accidents better than
researcher A does.
2002-AS-M & S24 23
(d) (i) P(the number of car accidents at the road junction in a month is 3
and one of which involves a bus)
= P(X = 3 and one of which involves a bus)
= P(one accident involves a bus | X = 3) P(X = 3)

=
2
! 3
) 3 . 0 1 ( 3 . 0
3
2 2 3
1
e C
=
1998 . 1
3
2
! 3
1998 . 1
7 . 0 3 . 0 3
e (~ 0.038254)
~ 0.0382

(ii) P(the number of car acidents at the road junction in a month is 3
and only the third car accident involves a bus)
= P(X = 3 and only the third car accident involves a bus)
=
3
1
P(X = 3 and one of which involves a bus)
~ 0.0127

(iii) P(X = 3 and the third car accident involves a bus | X = 3 and
only one of which involves a bus)
=
3
1
.
2002-AS-M & S25 24
13. Let Xg be the weight of a bag of self raising flour in the batch.

(a) (i) P(a bag of flour is underweight) = P(X < 376)
= )
10
400 376
10
400
( P
<
X

= ) 4 . 2 ( P < Z
~ 0.0082

(ii) P(a bag of flour is overweight) = P(X > 424)
= )
10
400 424
10
400
( P
>
X

= ) 4 . 2 ( P > Z
~ 0.0082

(b) (i) P(a bag of flour is substandard)
= ) 424 ( P ) 376 ( P > + < X X
~ 0.0082 + 0.0082 = 0.0164

Let Y be the number of substandard bags in the sample.

P(there is no substandard bags in the sample) = P(Y = 0)
=
50 0 50
0
) 0164 . 0 1 ( 0164 . 0 C
=
50
9836 . 0 ~ 0.4374

(ii) P(Y s 2)
= P(Y = 0) + P(Y =1) + P(Y =2)
=
49 50
1
50 0 50
0
9836 . 0 0164 . 0 9836 . 0 0164 . 0 + C C

48 2 50
2
9836 . 0 0164 . 0 +C
~ 0.43745 + 0.36469 + 0.14897
~ 0.9511
2002-AS-M & S26 25
(c) Let W be the number of underweight bags in the sample.

(i) P(W = 0, Y =1)
= ) 1 ( P ) 1 | 0 ( P = = = Y Y W
=
49 50
1
) 9836 . 0 ( ) 0164 . 0 (
2
1
C
~ 0.1823

(ii) The required probability is P(W = 0, Y s 2)
= ) 2 , 0 ( P ) 1 , 0 ( P ) 0 , 0 ( P = = + = = + = = Y W Y W Y W
= ) 2 ( ) 2 | 0 ( ) 1 , 0 ( ) 0 ( = = = + = = + = Y P Y W P Y W P Y P
~
48 2 50
2
2
) 9836 . 0 ( ) 0164 . 0 (
2
1
18235 . 0 43745 . 0 C
|
.
|
\
|
+ +
~ 0.6570

(iii) The required probability is P(W = 0 | Y s 2)
=
) 2 ( P
) 2 , 0 ( P
s
s =
Y
Y W

~
95111 . 0
65704 . 0

~ 0.6908
2002-AS-M & S27 26
14. (a) Let N be the number of customers visiting the supermarket in one minute.
) 2 P( s N =
6
2
0
!
6
=
_
e
k
k
k

=
6
2
6 6
! 2
6
! 1
6
+ + e e e
~ 0.002479 + 0.01487 + 0.04462
~ 0.0620
) 2 P( > N = ) 2 ( P 1 s N ~ 0.9380

(b) (i) X ~ ) , ( N
2
o
P(X < 100) = 0.063
063 . 0 )
100
( P =
<
o
Z
53 . 1
100
~
.. (1)
P(X > 400) = 0.006
006 . 0 )
400
( =
>
o
Z p
51 . 2
400
~
.. (2)

Solving (1) and (2), we get
~ 213.6

o ~ 74.26 ~ 74.3

) 300 200 ( P
1
< s = X a
= )
3 . 74
6 . 213 200
( )
3 . 74
6 . 213 300
(
<
< Z P Z p
~ 0.4484
~ 0.448

) 400 300 ( P
2
< s = X a
~ 0.117

2002-AS-M & S28 27
(ii) For normal distribution,
median = mean = 213.6

(iii) P(X > 50 | X s 200)
=
) 200 100 ( P ) 100 ( P
) 200 50 ( P
< s + <
< s
X X
X

=
364 . 0 063 . 0
) 18 . 0 20 . 2 ( P
+
< s Z

~
427 . 0
0714 . 0 4861 . 0

~ 0.9712

(iv) The required probability
= ) 5 ( P )) 200 ( P 1 ( ) 200 ( P
3 2 5
2
= < < N X X C
=
6
5
3 2
! 5
6
)) 364 . 0 063 . 0 ( 1 ( ) 364 . 0 063 . 0 ( 10
+ + e
~ 10(0.1823)(0.1881) (0.1606)
~ 0.0551

2002 Mathematics

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